Conservative lead continues, Harper widens best PM advantage: Nanos Poll (Completed November 10th)

368 comments Latest by brusmit (Suspended)

Our latest national poll shows that the Conservatives continue to hold a comfortable lead over the Liberals.

Looking at which of the party leaders Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now leads by a significant, 17 point, margin over over Michael Ignatieff. This represents the widest gap since Ignatieff was elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Factoring the advantage in the ballot box and on the best PM front, the Conservatives currently have the upper hand. The dilemma they face is that their numbers are strong but it is difficult to take advantage of it politically because of the Harper communications mantra that “this isn’t a good time for an election”.

Likewise, with a defeat in parliament at the hands of the opposition parties not imminent, it is hard for the Tories to plead the instability or unworkability of parliament.

Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,005 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between November 7th and November 10th. A survey of 1,005 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 814 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.

Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between October 10th and October 18th, 2009.

National (n=814)
Conservative 38.0% (-1.8)
Liberal 28.8% (-1.2)
NDP 17.9% (+1.3)
BQ 9.3% (+0.4)
Green 5.9% (+1.3)
Undecided 19.0% (+1.5)

Best PM Question:
Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate]
Stephen Harper 34.8%
Michael Ignatieff 17.7%
Jack Layton 14.9%
Gilles Duceppe 6.5%
Elizabeth May 4.5%
None of them 9.0%
Unsure 12.6%

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

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It's worrisome that 38% of those polled would vote for the Conservatives. That's... more

Bernie (Ontario) 14 Nov 08:32

At this stage it appears that all Harper has to do is to continue with his progr... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 14 Nov 04:18

Harper may have put himself in the no election box because he had no idea that I... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 14 Nov 09:59

Yes, excellent observation! Frank McKenna has all the qualities to move the Li... more

Laurie58 (Nova Scotia) 14 Nov 13:05

Ronald: AGREED. Bet you cannot get past the dinosaur gatekeepers in Ottawa. G... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 14 Nov 22:25

Polls Dont Count, I will not defend Ontario's record. That's McGuinty's job. On... more

RonaldODowd (Ontario) 14 Nov 23:12

Comments

Tom Good

At this stage it appears that all Harper has to do is to continue with his programme as it is the only programme that is on the table. Unfortunately, Ignatieff has been Harper's best helper since he caught the D1ON1 virus and has been unable to articulate a Liberal platform giving a choice for Canadians that they understand and may want.

Harper has rather boxed himself in with his "not time for an election" and parliament is "not working"-------parliament is sputtering along quite nicely. But Harper is the tactician. If the Conservative numbers move comfortably into the majority territory of the 40%s, then I would not be surprised to see a bold political move. Harper has called an election defying his own legislation and he pulled "prorogue" out of the hat for new political meaning. Harper is not to be underestimated.

I believe the outcome of the next General Election has been determined in the greater part by the Liberals and not the Conservatives. The Liberals have not learned how to be an effective opposition and now they have a few "in-house" squabbles to further diminish their creditability with the electorate. In the heart of Conservative country, Alberta, the ascendancy of the Wild Rose Party provincially may spill over into the federal camp but I am not too sure of this----need an Alberta observation here.

The Liberal brand name still retains good recognition across the land but CREATIVE leadership / thinking seems to have gone to hell. Their time in opposition, in my opinion has been badly squandered as they have had many opportunities to put forward many original-thinking proposals / propositions for Canada. They have fallen into the trap of becoming pseudo-conservatives thus they are deliberately making themselves politically redundant-----think they have well mastered the art of Hari-Kari. There is nothing wrong with supporting a good government policy and further offering what they would do should they be government. For example, the Liberals should have been shouting their support for Harper's proposal to increase the seats in the House of Commons for the under represented areas of Canada and, at the same time they could have tabled the Liberal target agenda for the governance of Canada for the next 10 or 20 or 30 years----equal representation by population ? ? ? ----Senate reform ? ? ? Council of First Ministers ? ? ? status of the Monarchy ? ? ? and the list goes on and on.

[updated Sat Nov 14 04:18:53 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 04:18

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Bernie

It's worrisome that 38% of those polled would vote for the Conservatives. That's dangerously close to a majority. As long as Harper leads the party our country will be going backward. I would still have to vote Green.
We have never had a leader of our country or a party in our history who has done as much damage to our country or party as Harper. There maybe some other in the Conservative whom I would vote for but Harper won't allow them to speak for themselves we will never know what they stand for so I don't know one of them that I might vote for under different circumstances.
I would vote for Peter Stoffer if he were leader of the NDP, or Bob Rae if he were Liberal leader.
I know Harper can't be a good PM. I don't think Ignatieff would be either. Layton, maybe, would better than either of them, but still not quite good enough. So that leaves May as the best of a bad lot.

For the most important issue, the environment, Harper has not done one thing for four years. He does not care about young Canadians dying for no good cause in a far off land.I does not care about a 15 year old Canadian boy illegally held in another country, deprive of all his human rights. He disobeys the laws of the land. (even his own law) his is concerned and generous to the rich and powerful but is uncaring and does little for the disenfranchised. He has the destroyed the good image of Canada abroad. He continually lies to and insults Canadians.
Just his attitude toward that poor kid down in Guantanamo reveals what a despicable excuse for a human being he is. How could anybody vote for that.

[updated Sat Nov 14 08:32:22 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 08:32

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Jan from Whitby

It seems to me that PM Harper is smart enough to not try to trigger an election.He has show to be a good PM for Canada.

[updated Sat Nov 14 08:50:48 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 08:50

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hollinm

Harper may have put himself in the no election box because he had no idea that Iffy could be as bad as he has turned out to be.

However, while he cannot be seen to force an unwanted election I do think he believes that this is not the right time to go to the polls. While the Conservatives are outpolling the Libs 10-15 pts the Conservative vote is inefficient as the pollsters like to say because of the high support in Alberta and the relatively few seats that the Conservatives can win. So I think Harper has made the calculation that it is better to bide his time and allow the chips to fall where they may.

In the meantime he has the opposition parties stymied. The Libs don't want to support the government because it makes them appear weak. The NDP know they could lose seats if the public decides that a majority government is better than what we have now and decide to move their votes to Conservatives to ensure a majority.

However, I would not be surprised to see Parliament called back in mid January where a budget is presented prior to the Olympics. Despite the budget constraints there will be taxpayer friendly "goodies" and the opposition parties will be forced to make a decision. Included in the budget will be the HST enabling legislation (needs to be passed by March 31st) and the NDP will bail based on their opposition to it. So the Libs will be back in their ever shrinking box and may well have to support the budget if the polls remain as they are.

In the meantime the Conservatives continue to build their brand across the country taking full advantage of the stimulus spending, ensuring Canadians understand that the Conservative government is working hard to minimize the impact of the recession and beginning to tackle some of the thorny issues that the Libs avoided for so many years i.e. immigration.

In the meantime the Libs have once again built up the arrival of Donolo as the next saviour of the Liberal party. Like Iffy who they recruited from Harvard to save them and is failing it needs to be pointed out that Donolo was simply a Director of Communications in the Chretien government, has not been in partisan politics since 1999 and it is quite different being a Cheif of Staff where you are in charge of the whole thing. The skills sets are not necessarily transferrable.

There is no doubt Donolo will bring some organization to the OLO but can he change the image of Iffy? That is the big question and one the Conservatives will be watching closely.

[updated Sat Nov 14 09:59:32 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 09:59

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Eternally Optomistic

I wonder if it is time for Donolo to start looking at replacing WK as the war room strategist. Seems to me that everyone WK has hung his hat with since Chretien has dropped off the end of the earth.

[updated Sat Nov 14 11:04:53 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 11:04

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RonaldODowd

Harper: In The Wrong Place At The Wrong Time!

Poor Prime Minister. Out in Singapore, India and China when he should really be in the U.S. preparing to sit down for American Thanksgiving.

After all, it could be either turkey or goose both of which have been sufficiently cooked. Sound familiar?

What to do? Dipping in the Nanos poll as we slowly make our way toward the traditional polling benchmarks. Trouble ahead for that long anticipated Conservative MAJORITY.

Nothing quite like the sound reasoned judgment of the Canadian people. Look at the undecided - it's a case of back to the future with a substantial chunk of voters clearly saying that Harper isn't the man. They prefer to park or yoyo between the NDP and the Liberals.

As the number one Conservative on this board might say: "I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T-I-N--G. Sort of gets you where you live, doesn't it? Bye, bye Conservative majority. The voters regard this PM as competent but they don't TRUST him enough to bestow the keys to the kingdom. Again, back to the traditional perception of Harper.

Sooner or later, people will take a stand. Theoretically, at least, that means either a massive shift to the NDP, or more likely, the Liberals. When that happens, someone will be well on their way to a majority but their name won't be Conservative.

By all means, bring on your budget in January. I for one, can't wait. It can't come before Parliament soon enough for me. I'm willing to wait until spring, if necessary but look forward to taking you guys on anytime, anywhere.

Watch for more Conservative dips in subsequent polls. Happy Holidays!

[updated Sat Nov 14 12:24:49 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 12:24

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Laurie58

Well, looks like the Libs actually gained 0.6% on the CPC over
the last Poll numbers. :) It amazes me that the Libs can hang
around 30% in suport even in the worst of times. It goes to show
what an amazing base they have, and that one major slip by
the CPC could turn the game around. Also noteworthy is the
fact that 19% are undecided. I would think that while the numbers
should cheer the CPC, they must be nervous in the realisation that,
remarkably, the Liberals remain within striking distance.

Mr. Nanos, I think you should do a survey of both the general public
and the CPC party members, on the following question or one like
it: "Do you think Stephen Harper can ever lead the Conservative
Party to a majority government?"

[updated Sat Nov 14 12:46:05 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 12:46

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Polls Dont Count

Harper can lead a majority government if the Liberals keep parading academics in front of the Canadian electorate. Academics make terrible leaders as Dion and Iggy have demonstrated.

Iggy is not the man!! Frank McKenna would indeed give Harper some problems!

[updated Sat Nov 14 12:56:57 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

14 Nov 12:56

Laurie58

Yes, excellent observation! Frank McKenna has all the qualities
to move the Liberals back to the top. He's probably one of the
CPC's worst nightmares.

[updated Sat Nov 14 13:05:44 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

14 Nov 13:05

RonaldODowd

Laurie58,

McKenna is a team player who has demonstrated his loyalty to the leader.

[updated Sat Nov 14 13:36:03 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 13:36

Polls Dont Count

Everyone is "loyal" until the knives come out. I trust the Party won't dither long in this mess like they did with Dion. You don't need a lost election to get the message that Iggy is the wrong guy!

[updated Sat Nov 14 16:37:13 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 16:37

RonaldODowd

Polls Dont Count,

The knives will stay in their sheaths. We're in this game to form government. You know that. Were we to conduct an unseemly internecine war, we would be spending the next decade in opposition.

As George H.W. Bush, à la Dana Carvey, would say: "Not gonna do it."

[updated Sat Nov 14 20:12:03 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 20:12

Tewchip

Too late me thinks. Codere knifed Iffy already, would'nt you agree?

[updated Sun Nov 15 11:17:51 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Nov 11:17

RonaldODowd

Tewchip,

Someone is indeed suffering from a serious wound but unfortunately, it was self-inflicted.

It's one thing to clear the air and say the things that needed to be said, even in public. It's quite another to muse in public about verboten and incredibly premature life objectives...

[updated Sun Nov 15 11:26:19 EST 2009]

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15 Nov 11:26

brusmit (Suspended)

Laurie58 writes,

" He's probably one of the CPC's worst nightmares."

Not much to have nightmares about, if you take Mr. McKenna at his word.

Globe and Mail, Jane Taber, Friday, November 13, 2009 11:24 AM

Becoming Prime Minister (the constant question asked of him)

“The answer is no, I don’t see any circumstances where I would come back (to politics).”

[updated Sun Nov 15 00:08:30 EST 2009]

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15 Nov 00:08

elf

except Frank McK has been very public about not being in public life any more

[updated Thu Nov 19 18:25:37 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

19 Nov 18:25

brusmit (Suspended)

elf writes,

"except Frank McK has been very public about not being in public life any more"

Beause Laurie58 writes,

" He's probably one of the CPC's worst nightmares."

and I wrote,

Globe and Mail, Jane Taber, Friday, November 13, 2009 11:24 AM

Becoming Prime Minister (the constant question asked of him)

“The answer is no, I don’t see any circumstances where I would come back (to politics).”

You should try and get all the boys into the same little car all under that big Liberal tent, it really does not show well when onebody knows what is going on.

[updated Thu Nov 19 21:20:27 EST 2009]

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19 Nov 21:20

Tom Good

Polls: Politicians all have an ego the size of the Parliament Buildings. None ever just step down for the good of the party or the country-----they have to be thrown out of office or stabbed in their office by the "party faithful". Martin is the only one I can think of who made a fast and clean retreat. There is lots of blood about Ottawa caused by the long knives of all parties. Who said politics was for the faint of heart.

If there is a change in leadership, it has to be fast. Unfortunately, caucus does not have the power to appoint a leader in a crisis situation------you would have thought they would have learned with the Dion fiasco. I am sure the current leader does not see himself as an impediment to the fortunes of the Liberal Party. I understand all mirrors have been removed or never been installed in the Parliament Buildings.

[updated Sun Nov 15 00:08:48 EST 2009]

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15 Nov 00:08

brusmit (Suspended)

As Mr. Mckenna name has come up in this thread, I thought I would throw this out and there is some good advice here for the Liberals.

Toronto Star Published On Thu Nov 12 2009, Joan Bryden,THE CANADIAN PRESS

Headline; McKenna warns Liberal resurgence will take time.

"Frank McKenna has some sobering counsel for federal Liberals: They could be in opposition for a long time and there is no Messianic leader who can lead them quickly out of the wilderness."

"I just think (Liberals) need to be patient," McKenna said in an interview to promote a new biography of him, written by journalist Harvey Sawler.

"When the top job in the federal Liberal party fell open in 2006 and again in 2008, McKenna was touted by many Grits as the saviour who could best vault them back to power. McKenna, now a top executive with TD Bank, declined both times."

"I never thought it would be easy and I never thought I was a Messiah," he said.

"Indeed, his decision to stay on the sidelines was at least partly due to his realization that rebuilding the party would take years of painstaking, relentless work."

"When you've been in power for a long stretch, the tide goes out and it goes out a long way," he says now.

[updated Sun Nov 15 00:01:22 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Nov 00:01

elf

the answer is NO

[updated Thu Nov 19 18:24:14 EST 2009]

Reply to Comment

19 Nov 18:24

brusmit (Suspended)

elf writes,

"the answer is NO"

The quotes that I used previously can be directly attributed to Mr. McKenna and can be verfied by going to the link that I provided, simple enough every for you.

I can not say that I am sorry for showing that the position and statements that you brought forward do not meet the standard of being truthful, once again.

And as an FYI, yelling "no" is not really a debating point.

[updated Thu Nov 19 18:34:29 EST 2009]

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19 Nov 18:34

RonaldODowd

The Pleasures Of Singapore.

A tale of two guys -- one stuck in boring meetings while the other is free to roam across the countryside, blading to his heart's content.

The latter continues to stay in shape -- he's fit and trim and ready for his political future. Who knows, after the next election, he may get his chance.

He would be an interesting opponent. He's tough, without a mean bone in his body. Time will tell whether we meet on the battlefield.

[updated Sat Nov 14 13:05:45 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 13:05

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twiens

Stats, stats and more stats. Having worked with stats for a good part of my life I am well aware of how they can be used. You can give the same set of numbers to five different statistical analysts and get five sets of outcomes based on the philosophy of the analyst. That is why I don't pay a lot of attention to polls. What is most obvious to me is the type of results that comes out of the different areas of our country. To me, that just re-enforces the need for political change...not in politician but in the structure of our political system.

We have become to diverse a country for a centralized political system. We continually hear from all political parties about making changes to our system and to date I have seen little. Personally I really don't care for any of the current leaders but am very happy to have a minority government right now. From my point of view that helps keep a political balance right now which is what we need. My support for a Prime Minister will go to the first leader who takes real steps to change our structure and not to someone that talks up, as an example, Senate reform and then appoint as many Senators that he can. There has to be a middle ground between the American system and the British parliamentary system. The first leader to do that has me.

[updated Sat Nov 14 13:08:10 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 13:08

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RonaldODowd

Brusmit,

Since you are in unusually fine form today, I have a question for you concerning Remembrance Day:

I understand why Viet Nam is not inscribed on our cenotaph in Ottawa. Undeclared war, Canada not officially part of it, etc.

But why did we not commemorate our veterans from the Boer War? Surely, that was a Canadian war with volunteers fighting for King and Country. Didn't Laurier play at least a semi-active role regarding same?

Thanks in advance for your time and your opinion, if proffered.

[updated Sat Nov 14 22:24:35 EST 2009]

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14 Nov 22:24

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Non-aligned in Toronto

I am delighted to see that both Nik's poll and the Ekos poll earlier this week show the Conservatives edging away from majority territory. I can live with a Con minority government, but like most Canadians, as indicated by the trend of the Con tide retreating each time it comes close to a majority, I don't want a Conservative majority.

Also heartening to me as an unreconstructed dipper, is to see the NDP edge back to the 18%they received last election.

[updated Mon Nov 16 09:42:54 EST 2009]

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16 Nov 09:42

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brusmit (Suspended)

With the Liberal preoccupation with H1N1 one has to wonder why the Liberals continue to try and play this story into a major issue as the headlines from across Canada are showing a clear trend that Canadians are moving on and the media hype has slowed to a trickle on this file.

Time for the Liberals to move on to the next big issue facing Canadians as this one was a non starter from the get go and no matter how they try to spin it, the only political capital that they will receive is if a large number of Canadians start to die.

So for the Liberals are reduced to being cheerleaders, with individuals such as Mr. Rae, Ms. Bennet and other Liberals at the request of Mr. Ignatieff new COS are out there leading the cheers and fear mongering about Canadians dying.

The Canadian Press, Date: Tuesday Nov. 17, 2009 9:05 AM ET

Headline - H1N1's true toll may take months to become clear.

From the piece,

"Are you confused by the H1N1 numbers? Wondering why public health officials are making such a fuss about a virus that has so far killed so few people? You aren't alone."

"After all, we're told seasonal flu kills between 4,000 to 8,000 Canadians and between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide each year. Yet as of late last week, seven months into this outbreak, H1N1 had killed 161 Canadians and an estimated 6,260 people around the globe. "

[updated Tue Nov 17 09:32:39 EST 2009]

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17 Nov 09:32

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brusmit (Suspended)

Here is another Headline that I have not seen carried in the other Conservative friendly media outlets and one could question as to why it is not being carried as it is excellent news for the Conservatives and their form of Governing.

It speaks to the how well the Conservatives are handling the question of transparency during their terms as Government as their work on this file is described as being "inspirational" and it is clear contrast to the time under the Liberals were Canada`s standing fell to an all time low.

From the piece

"Canada's score, as high as 9.0 in 2002, slid steadily to 8.4 in 2005 as a result of the sponsorship scandal. It bounced up to 8.7 in the 2007 TI index, a level it has maintained in the two subsequent TI studies."

It is interesting that the Liberals, NDP and Bloc are attacking the Conservative on this file as they have been recognized by a world agency for their high quality and standards that they have set and that is reflected in the increase in Canada`s standing since the Conservative assumed power.

This yet one more example of the Liberals under the direct of Mr. Ignatieff and his COS choosing yet again lies over truth and the Liberals wonder why they are disconnected from Canadians and will remain so until they can find their values again and stop seeking power for the sack of power and try and bring new public policy to Canadians for debate.

Global News.
Canada least corrupt in the Americas:
Report by Peter O'Neil, Canwest News Europe Correspondent, Canwest News Service: Tuesday, November 17, 2009 6:02 AM.

"Canada is viewed as the least corrupt country in the Americas and is an "inspiration" for the U.S. and other neighbours in the hemisphere, Transparency International said in its annual report published Tuesday."

"The Berlin-based watchdog ranked Canada eighth globally, in a tie with Australia and the Netherlands, in its index that assesses internal perceptions of corruption in 180 countries."
"In first place was New Zealand while in second last place, just ahead of the failed state of Somalia, was Afghanistan, the largest recipient of Canadian development aid."

"Canada, with a score of 8.7 out of 10, "continues to be among the ten countries with the lowest perceived levels of corruption worldwide, serving as a benchmark and inspiration for the Americas," TI said in its report."

[updated Tue Nov 17 10:09:56 EST 2009]

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17 Nov 10:09

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brusmit (Suspended)

Don Martin, National Post Published: Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Headline: Liberals immune to flu facts

The observations that Mr. Martin brings forward in today's piece goes directly to the heart of what is wrong with the Liberals and why even with a new COS in the OLO, they are still flipping and flopping around the issues of the day.

"Scare tactics continue as public fears wane"

How Liberal no public policy but there seems to be no end to the fear mongering and lies.

From the piece,

"There's a palpable easing of the public health hysteria that was inflicting so much distress on the government for most of the last month -- although that was clearly news to the Liberals."

It was in all the papers, perchance Mr. Ignatieff new COS missed it while he was busy cutting all these Liberal staffers just before Christmas, what a nice Christmas present from Mr. Ignatieff to his staff.

"The Official Opposition may have been operating under new office management yesterday, but you would never have known it by their same old Question Period fear mongering laced with half-truths, a tactic perhaps more symptomatic of party desperation than anything dramatically new on the health file.

Well, that just about says it all, what is new is old again in a very short time and it only took one day, who would have thought.

From the Piece,

"For starters, they warned, the immunization completion date will be delayed by several months and could extend into February."
"This is patently false -- Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq says the program is still on track for completion by Christmas and notes some jurisdictions will be finished their rollout this week -- and it does nothing but heighten anxiety among Canadians and add panic to the lineups of parents seeking to ensure their kids have the shot."
Patently false, what can be more straight forward than that - the Liberals are playing fast and loose with the truth and why does the truth scare the Liberal so much that they need to resort to lies to try and make a point.
From the Piece
"The Liberals also seem to be boosting flu figures for dramatic effect by saying there have been at least 41 deaths in the past week and 190 deaths in total. The latest information on public health agency websites indicate 20 deaths in the last week and 135 in total."

The Liberals are boosting the numbers of how many Canadians have died from H1N1, is the number of these tragic deaths not high enough for Mr. Igantieff and his new COS, that they have to lie about how many have died.

From the Piece

"They also forget to add context to statistics that are obviously tragic for the victims, but hardly worthy of panic in a country where weekly H1N1 deaths are now roughly a third of the average traffic fatality count."

We are back to the point where the Liberals are calling out fire in a crowd room where there is no fire, in the hope of creating panic and fear.

From the Piece

"If H1N1 has "overwhelmed many hospital ICUs," as the Liberals allege, that's news to the media although, to be fair, that could happen if the pandemic worsens."

"And as if to underline that their scare tactics are getting thin, the Liberals say ethnic communities could suffer from health-care ignorance because the federal government has failed to translate vaccine program information into many languages. Local health authorities, of course, handle that kind of targeted communication, and they are quite capable of doing so in many languages."

Straight forward fear mongering by the Liberals in the hope of reviving their faltering numbers among new Canadians, I really cannot see anything more debased than that from the Liberals, but the day is not over yet and QP is no line again today.

From the Piece

"It's time to downplay the spin doctors and concentrate on medical facts as this pandemic reaches what seems to be a weaker-than-predicted peak."

"Prevailing expert opinion is that the odds of dying from this H1N1 bug are the same as any run-of-the-mill flu and may indeed be considerably less by the time the mass immunization is done which, it's safe to predict, will happen earlier than predicted and probably by mid-December."

Mr. Martin`s words are very reasonable and the Liberals should be taking his advice on this and backing off the hype and lies as it does not serve Canada well.

[updated Tue Nov 17 10:52:50 EST 2009]

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17 Nov 10:52

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brusmit (Suspended)

Well, here is today`s newest Conservative scandal unearthed by the ever vigilant Liberal party of Canada and on reflection it is just more of the same nonsense that the Liberals have been parading in front of Canadians for the past year now.

It sounds good on the sound bit`s and the news cycles but it does not stand the smell test, so back to books for Mr. Ignatieff new COS as there is nothing new here.

Campbell Clark. Ottawa — From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Published on Monday, Nov. 16, 2009 10:22PM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009 3:03AM EST

Headline: Tory MPs assailed over mailing costs.

From the piece and it is buried deep down in the piece and it is the most telling part of the article and how the Liberals and this writer have chosen to spin this issue.

"All the parties do it, but the Conservatives have taken to it with zeal: Adding up the costs, the Montreal newspaper Le Devoir found that MPs with the minority Conservatives spent $6.3-million on the mailers, while opposition MPs spent $3.8-million."

Now I am not sure what math the Liberals and this writer are using, perhaps it is the new math but my old math says that if there are 144 Conservatives and there are 77 Liberals, that means that there are twice as many Conservatives.

So the $6.3 million spent by the Conservatives is in fact proportionally less than the $3.8 Million that was spent by the Liberals, now my solution to Mr. Ignatieff and his new COS and the Liberal members of house is to force an election and receive more seats, that way they can have more money to spend on the 10% other wise - take a seat and stopm the whine it is getting old.

Good old new Liberal math as the numbers never seem to add up.

From the piece.

"Opposition complains parliamentary privilege is being abused for propaganda purposes."

" The Conservatives have made free mail expensive."

"Reports that Tory MPs ran up $6.3-million in costs last year by mailing out so-called “ten-per-centers” to people outside their ridings have opposition MPs calling for new limits on the free-mail privilege."

"The pamphlets are a parliamentary perk: MPs have free mailing privileges, called franking, that allow them to send information outside their riding. But Conservatives have employed them at twice the rate of other MPs – and used them to take more bare-knuckled political campaigns into opponents' ridings."

“They don't need to use our free franking privileges to carpet-bomb Canada with propaganda. It infuriates me,” New Democrat MP Pat Martin said.

"The dispute is not over the newsletters that MPs send free to their own constituents four times a year. Parliamentarians have another free-mail privilege that allows them to send mailers to a number of households equal to 10 per cent of the households in their own ridings. They can send them anywhere in Canada, as many times as they like, as long as they change them substantially each time. And parties can group batches of MPs together, combining their 10-per-cent numbers, to send bigger m

[updated Tue Nov 17 11:29:56 EST 2009]

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17 Nov 11:29

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brusmit (Suspended)

Well it would appear that H1N1 is no dead on arrival with the Liberals and just look at what they have chosen to hitch their wagon to this time.

CTV - Afghan prisoners were tortured, diplomat says.

"Afghanistan's intelligence service tortured every detainee handed over to them by Canadian soldiers in 2006-2007, a federal official testified today. "

"According to our information, the likelihood is that all the Afghans we handed over were tortured," he said.

"For interrogators in Kandahar, it was standard operating procedure."

CBC - All Afghan detainees likely tortured: diplomat.

"All detainees transferred by Canadians to Afghan prisons were likely tortured by Afghan officials and many of the prisoners were innocent, says a former senior diplomat with Canada's mission in Afghanistan.

"Appearing before a House of Commons committee Wednesday, Richard Colvin blasted the detainees policies of Canada and compared them with the policies of the British and the Netherlands."

Toronto Star - Canada ignored torture warnings: Diplomat.

"A former senior Canadian diplomat in Afghanistan has levelled bombshell allegations suggesting the military knowingly handed detainees to Afghan authorities where they were tortured.

"Richard Colvin, now an intelligence officer at the Canadian embassy in Washington, said Canada took six times as many detainees as coalition partners from Britain and the Netherlands, had no way to track their whereabouts, and ignored warnings they were being tortured with electrical tables, extreme temperatures, knives and sexual abuse."

Global and Mail - Canada handed over innocent Afghans to torture, diplomat tells Commons committee.

"All of the prisoners Canada handed over to Afghanistan's notorious intelligence service in 2006-07 were tortured and many of them were likely innocent, a federal official has testified. "

"Intelligence officer Richard Colvin, a former diplomat in Afghanistan, testified before a special House of Commons committee Wednesday. "

Well this should interesting, no proof and no facts and the Liberal friendly media being unable able to sell "that canadains are dying from H1N1 for the Liberals have now moved on to the next Conservative scandal, one can only wonder what it will be next week.

[updated Wed Nov 18 17:28:54 EST 2009]

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18 Nov 17:28

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Tom Good

FIVE YEAR STUDY blog---the latest one. If you wish to get access, into your favourites enter www.nikonthenumbers.com and enter the blog that way.

[updated Fri Nov 20 22:02:38 EST 2009]

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20 Nov 22:02

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RonaldODowd

Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid Polls: Something Bad For Just About Everyone...

What strikes me in general terms about Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid (and Ekos before them) is that Conservatives continue to have momentum -- but it's faltering. (Mind you, they won't be breaking into tears with a thirteen to fifteen point lead.)

But they do have reason to be worried if their eyes are still on the same ball: that of coming out of the next campaign with a majority Conservative government. I've been carping about this for an eternity and boldly predicted (some would argue foolishly!) quite some time ago that we'll never see the election of a CPC majority. (You will also recall my other gem -- namely, that sooner or later we will find ourselves smack in the middle of an election and that voters will give Michael a mandate to govern. Again, my own view is that people are itching for a majority, and for better or worse, Michael is the only leader that is even remotely perceived as a contender by most people who happen to vote anything other than Conservative. That's why I'm expecting an eventual Liberal majority.)

To my mind, Ekos, Angus Reid and most recently, Ipsos Reid are beginning to show the way. People are parking their votes with a whopping ten percent in the Green column (Angus Reid). Ipsos Reid has the NDP rising by six points while AR has them stable. That has happened to the NDP more times than I can shake a stick at, in the past, but the NDP has never been able in recent polls to make permanent significant headway against the Liberals. That is known as a pure, unadulterated fact!

Once again (and thank the deity for it), Conservatives have missed another open and now rapidly closing window preferring to "bide their time". Big mistake, IMHO.

Meanwhile, over at our bench, Peter has his work cut out for him. We know what we have to do. We've found the common resolve to do it. So let's get to work. Many of you know what direction I think we should head in. But that's not my call, is it...

So stay tuned as we head into spring for the inevitable showdown with this government. A week is indeed a very long time in politics (some longer than others!). But keep the faith, and keep smiling.

Think of it as In The Kitchen With Master Chefs...then enjoy the slicing and dicing as each party manoeuvers to get a significant strategic advantage over the others.

[updated Sat Nov 21 16:55:50 EST 2009]

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21 Nov 16:55

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brusmit (Suspended)

With Mr. Ignatieff at 23% in the polls out come the Liberal knives.

From the Toronto Star. Published On Sun Nov 22 2009, Sidhartha Banerjee, The Canadian Press

Stéphane Dion's wife shares her disdain for Michael IgnatieffFacebook posting slams his ability to lead party.


Stephane Dion leaves with his wife, Janine Krieber, after speaking to the media following Prime Minister Stephen Harper's federal election announcement in Ottawa, Sept. 7, 2008.

"The outspoken wife of former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion has written a scathing letter in which she questions Michael Ignatieff's ability to lead the party out of its current woes.

In a note published on her Facebook page and subsequently circulated among party members, Janine Krieber wrote Friday that the party was in full collapse and the future appeared bleak.

A fellow university professor, Krieber said party members were duped by Ignatieff and would have recognized his obvious shortcomings if they'd only taken the time to read his academic writings.

She also said the party would pay for refusing to endorse a historic left-wing coalition in an attempt to oust the Conservatives last December.

She writes that her husband was working to rebuild the party after last year's disappointing election result but had those efforts short-circuited by Ignatieff, who first dethroned Dion without a leadership race and then dumped the idea of forming a coalition with the other opposition parties.

"Stéphane was ready to take the time and the shots (against him) in order to rebuild the party," she said. "But they (party members) didn't accept the 26 per cent (of the popular vote in the last election). Now we're at 23."

Sources say Dion, a Montreal MP, was not involved in producing the note and that people in his camp persuaded Krieber, who has never shied away from expressing her opinion, to delete the message Saturday."

[updated Sun Nov 22 09:36:55 EST 2009]

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22 Nov 09:36

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RonaldODowd

Open Season For Comments!

What do you think of CDS Walter Natynczyk's comments that Afghan prisoner transfers were stopped more than once -- contrary to what the government had previously put on the record?

Is it a "bombshell" as claimed on CBC News Network or less than that? Is it still trouble for the Harper government?

NOT RELATED: I can't resist this one. CBC NN is running Orgasm Inc. about the lack of blood flow to the female sex organs. Seesh. They don't need a pill to fix it, she just said. I agree. What don't they just STOP smoking! You would think women would know what that alone does to blood vessels...(But as per usual, I digress.)

[updated Sun Nov 22 22:13:12 EST 2009]

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22 Nov 22:13

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brusmit (Suspended)

Well considering that Liberals are now down another couple of percentages points to 23%, I guess it is time to close the book on H1N1 which was the one / two week wonder that the Liberals were banking on to improve their numbers.

Canadians were never impressed with the Liberal, Media hype on this file and have moved on as they did for the preceeding Chq Gate, the Torch, the 10% and other scandals

This has me wondering, how long the most recent one will last.

It is now into it`s second week and depending on how the committee plays out, it should be interesting to see whether or not the Liberals will get another bump in the wrong direction for attacking the Canadian forces through the Government on this file.

[updated Mon Nov 23 08:29:54 EST 2009]

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23 Nov 08:29

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