Our latest national poll shows that the Conservatives continue to hold a comfortable lead over the Liberals.
Looking at which of the party leaders Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now leads by a significant, 17 point, margin over over Michael Ignatieff. This represents the widest gap since Ignatieff was elected leader of the Liberal Party.
Factoring the advantage in the ballot box and on the best PM front, the Conservatives currently have the upper hand. The dilemma they face is that their numbers are strong but it is difficult to take advantage of it politically because of the Harper communications mantra that “this isn’t a good time for an election”.
Likewise, with a defeat in parliament at the hands of the opposition parties not imminent, it is hard for the Tories to plead the instability or unworkability of parliament.
Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,005 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between November 7th and November 10th. A survey of 1,005 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 814 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.
Ballot Question:
For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between October 10th and October 18th, 2009.
National (n=814)
Conservative 38.0% (-1.8)
Liberal 28.8% (-1.2)
NDP 17.9% (+1.3)
BQ 9.3% (+0.4)
Green 5.9% (+1.3)
Undecided 19.0% (+1.5)
Best PM Question:
Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate]
Stephen Harper 34.8%
Michael Ignatieff 17.7%
Jack Layton 14.9%
Gilles Duceppe 6.5%
Elizabeth May 4.5%
None of them 9.0%
Unsure 12.6%
What do you think?
Cheers,
NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
It's worrisome that 38% of those polled would vote for the Conservatives. That's... more
Bernie (Ontario) 14 Nov 08:32
At this stage it appears that all Harper has to do is to continue with his progr... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 14 Nov 04:18
Harper may have put himself in the no election box because he had no idea that I... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 14 Nov 09:59
Yes, excellent observation! Frank McKenna has all the qualities to move the Li... more
Laurie58 (Nova Scotia) 14 Nov 13:05
Ronald: AGREED. Bet you cannot get past the dinosaur gatekeepers in Ottawa. G... more
Tom Good (British Columbia) 14 Nov 22:25
Polls Dont Count, I will not defend Ontario's record. That's McGuinty's job. On... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 14 Nov 23:12
Comments
Tom Good
At this stage it appears that all Harper has to do is to continue with his programme as it is the only programme that is on the table. Unfortunately, Ignatieff has been Harper's best helper since he caught the D1ON1 virus and has been unable to articulate a Liberal platform giving a choice for Canadians that they understand and may want.
Harper has rather boxed himself in with his "not time for an election" and parliament is "not working"-------parliament is sputtering along quite nicely. But Harper is the tactician. If the Conservative numbers move comfortably into the majority territory of the 40%s, then I would not be surprised to see a bold political move. Harper has called an election defying his own legislation and he pulled "prorogue" out of the hat for new political meaning. Harper is not to be underestimated.
I believe the outcome of the next General Election has been determined in the greater part by the Liberals and not the Conservatives. The Liberals have not learned how to be an effective opposition and now they have a few "in-house" squabbles to further diminish their creditability with the electorate. In the heart of Conservative country, Alberta, the ascendancy of the Wild Rose Party provincially may spill over into the federal camp but I am not too sure of this----need an Alberta observation here.
The Liberal brand name still retains good recognition across the land but CREATIVE leadership / thinking seems to have gone to hell. Their time in opposition, in my opinion has been badly squandered as they have had many opportunities to put forward many original-thinking proposals / propositions for Canada. They have fallen into the trap of becoming pseudo-conservatives thus they are deliberately making themselves politically redundant-----think they have well mastered the art of Hari-Kari. There is nothing wrong with supporting a good government policy and further offering what they would do should they be government. For example, the Liberals should have been shouting their support for Harper's proposal to increase the seats in the House of Commons for the under represented areas of Canada and, at the same time they could have tabled the Liberal target agenda for the governance of Canada for the next 10 or 20 or 30 years----equal representation by population ? ? ? ----Senate reform ? ? ? Council of First Ministers ? ? ? status of the Monarchy ? ? ? and the list goes on and on.
[updated Sat Nov 14 04:18:53 EST 2009]
14 Nov 04:18
40 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good writes,
"Harper has rather boxed himself in with his "not time for an election" and parliament is "not working"-------parliament is sputtering along quite nicely."
While I am in general agreement with your position that Mr. Harper has limited choices regarding having or being able to force an election because of previous statements that he has made.
He still has a much larger box to move around in when compared to the small box of Liberal design that the Liberals find themselves in and the NDP box while smaller than the Conservative one is now much larger than the Liberal one as a result of the four by-elections...
It is those statements and the position that Mr. Harper has taken that is allowing parliament to move along as the Conservatives introduce pieces of new legislation one piece at a time, forcing Liberal and NDP compliance in the house and Liberal compliance in the Senate.
The Liberals are unable to move their much vaunted non confidence motions and the NDP is locked into supporting the Government for the period that it takes for the EI reforms to go through all the House and Senate.
The only change, I see possibly occurring is for the NDP to take up the previous offer made to them by the Liberals when the Liberals were trying to get out of the Mr. Dion box of supporting the Government and tried to push the NDP into supporting the Government.
With the four by-elections results in and with the Liberals having put themselves in their own little small box, I can see the NDP pulling their support of the Government at the first opportunity and putting the Liberals back into the position of supporting the Government and their bills or force another election.
So I have to say that I do not see any down side for the Conservatives being in this particular box and that they are in fact positioned to be in a win win scenario, while the Liberals are left holding the bag in a shrinking box.
The question for the Conservatives is how they get out of their particular box, with it now approaching one year since the Conservatives presented their previous budget there will be time within the next two months to present a budget.
This will be an excellent opportunity for the Conservatives; they can present a budget that is voter friendly, still move on the stimulus package, H1N1, the recession, EI and pension reform all of which has been introduced, as well as other programs the Conservatives have been bring in..
Now throw in one small pill that the opposition parties cannot support and we have another unnecessary election that was forced on the people of Canada by the Liberals, NDP and Bloc and with stroke of the pen that the Coalition is back in the news and if the three parties support the bill, things just keep moving along
The only down side for the Conservatives, is if individually one of the three opposition parties support the budget while the other two vote against it and the budget passes, my choice would be Bloc and NDP voting no and the Liberals voting yes, putting the Liberals back to Mr. Dion`s position of being forced to support a budget that they say is no good.
Once again I find the Conservatives are in the win, win scenario, lose the vote and go to an election that could in the very least add more seats to the minority they currently enjoy or an out and out majority.
Win the vote and continue on their way, of introducing their platform as one bill at a time and at the same time force the Liberals to support the bills that they say they do not believe in.
In closing there are three items of interest that have not been discussed and they are that the Conservatives having more Senate seats than the Liberals by January 2010 and a majority by November 2010 and with the prospect of being able to appoint a new GG in April of 2010, things can only be said to be looking up.
Time is on the Conservatives side and they have a number of options, while the Liberals have run out of options and are running out of time.
[updated Sat Nov 14 08:51:08 EST 2009]
14 Nov 08:51
RonaldODowd
Brusmit. We will hold our fire until spring. Watch what happens then!
[updated Sat Nov 14 11:52:34 EST 2009]
14 Nov 11:52
Polls Dont Count
Remember "Dion will crush Harper". Sure! sure! Always some time in the fiture!
[updated Sat Nov 14 12:50:25 EST 2009]
14 Nov 12:50
RonaldODowd
Polls Dont Count,
Is that the first indication of panic spreading across your keyboard? Not sufficiently clever as a retort.
[updated Sat Nov 14 12:53:11 EST 2009]
14 Nov 12:53
Polls Dont Count
Life is the time we spend planning for the future.
[updated Sat Nov 14 13:13:10 EST 2009]
14 Nov 13:13
RonaldODowd
Polls Dont Count,
We are as one on this point.
[updated Sat Nov 14 13:15:44 EST 2009]
14 Nov 13:15
Bernie
Read Eckhart Tolle's "the Power of Now". :-)
[updated Sun Nov 15 07:54:52 EST 2009]
15 Nov 07:54
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd writes,
"Brusmit. We will hold our fire until spring. Watch what happens then!"
I believe that I have dealt with your comment in a previous post and as an FYI this is now the fourth spring, summer, fall and winter that I have heard that battle cry from the Liberals and by their three leaders and nine COS and it does get a little old after a while.
It would have been a better discussion if you had attempted to debate some of the points that I brought forward in my reply to Tom Good, but this will do for now.
[updated Sat Nov 14 19:42:22 EST 2009]
14 Nov 19:42
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
I could debate with you but alas, I prefer to offer advice elsewhere. But quite candidly, I will admit that your offer is extremely tempting.
[updated Sat Nov 14 20:30:33 EST 2009]
14 Nov 20:30
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd writes,
"I could debate with you but alas, I prefer to offer advice elsewhere"
Fight or flight and it would appear that the Liberals have chosen flight over fight and will try to live to fight again tomorrow, but it has been said that tomorrow never comes.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:14:02 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:14
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
Wasn't that James Bond? Perhaps not.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:18:52 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:18
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd,
Well, we will just have to wait until tomorrow to see, perhaps or perhaps not.
Be seeing you, I am calling it a night on this one.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:29:43 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:29
Tom Good
Brusmit: Cannot disagree with your analysis but you have to accept that Liberal "mismanagement" is a Conservative strength. That is rather "soft ground" on which to build anything but it just may work for Harper this time. Yes, the byelections sent a strong message.
If Harper gains control of the Senate in 2010, as you suggest, that will be a positive step forward for the governance of Canada assuming he can get the Conservative Senators to agree with his reforms. The Liberals have badly missed the boat on Senate reform and are thus badly out of step with the electorate of Canada.
[updated Sat Nov 14 15:00:00 EST 2009]
14 Nov 15:00
RonaldODowd
Tom,
Respectfully, what strong message? The Conservatives got Cumberland-Colchester back in the fold after treating Casey like shit. Doesn't say much about the temporary backbone shown in the last federal election...
The NDP held on in New Westminster-Coquitlam. Ditto for the Bloc in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.
As for the Conservative win in Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, they won with only 37% of eligible voters casting ballots. In short, Bloc voters stayed home. They won't repeat that mistake in the next election.
[updated Sat Nov 14 15:18:08 EST 2009]
14 Nov 15:18
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd,
Your comments are right from the Liberal talking points and as Mr. Nanos has been know to say the numbers are the numbers, so spin away as it will not change the polling numbers that we have seen for the past five weeks from all five polling companies.
[updated Sat Nov 14 20:03:17 EST 2009]
14 Nov 20:03
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
You seem to have failed to notice the undergrowth of undecided that is thickening in the forest...
[updated Sat Nov 14 20:32:48 EST 2009]
14 Nov 20:32
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd writes,
"You seem to have failed to notice the undergrowth of undecided that is thickening in the forest..."
The thicking does not appear to be there and you can look at the data from the other polling companies to see the same trend and I always read the other guys polls and as you most likely know keeping all your eggs in one basket is not a good idea.
Ekos 11/12 undecided 16.6%, Con 36.6%, Lib 26.6%, NDP 16.8%
11/05 undecided 16.0%, Con 37.4%, Lib 26.8%, NDP 16.3%
10/29 undecided 16.4%, Con 38.4%, Lib 26.8%, NDP 16.7%
10/22 undecided 16.4.5, Con 38.3%, Lib 27.1%, NDP 14.5%
EKOS SEAT PROJECTION: BACK TO THE GRIND,
But crucially, as has often happened in the past when the Conservatives lunge into majority territory, their edge seems to erode over time. And that has happened again.
The Liberals, interestingly have not recovered since last month, still stewing in the mid-twenties; but the Conservatives have slipped incrementally back to their normal range.
And what does that do to the seat projections? Hey! Presto! Back to minority:
Number of Seats Nationally C 142, L 78, NDP 37, G 0 and B 51.
And more than just a minority; the same minority as we got in 2008. In this scenario, the Conservatives and Liberals are within a seat of the 2008 results. The Bloc is up two seats.
And the NDP has exactly what they had last year. (So much for the persistent media narrative that
the NDP is heading rapidly to oblivion!)
What does
[updated Sat Nov 14 21:14:32 EST 2009]
14 Nov 21:14
Tom Good
Ronald: Traditionally / usuually / for-the-most-part , byelections do not favour the incumbent party but rather favour the non-government parties. The present 4 seat byelection should have given the Liberals a better showing or at least a second place showing. It didn't. I would say that was a strong message. In a realistic, non-partisan, dispassionate view from the sidelines, I would say the next General Election has been decided. Harper has out-foxed them all.
Barring an outright scandal for the Conservatives and barring an outright political miracle for the Liberals, the Harperites are poised for a small majority at the next General Election. Of course, the NDP could throw their bantam weight in favour of the Liberals, which they will not, and the Greens could do the same, which they will not. If strategic voting becomes an issue, there will be a "drift" from the "non-core" adherents from both those secondary parties to one of the two major parties. The party that manages to reduce the threat to the Quebecois, who are adrift in an English speaking sea on this continent and adrift in an English speaking commercial sea in the world will, indeed, be forming the government for a good block of time in the future. Perhaps the two main parties need to study the Swiss national makeup to understand how they have managed, amicably, to over come as great or greater linguistic and cultural problems than we have in Canada.
The membership in any political party is very small compared to the numbers in the electorate as a whole. Each party has to rely upon the huge numbers of non-committed / swing voters / indifferent voters / non-voters to favour their particular programme and vote them into government. It is a slow race in Canada at the moment but WHO is winning that race????? That is the next government ! ! !
[updated Sat Nov 14 21:17:16 EST 2009]
14 Nov 21:17
RonaldODowd
Tom,
As always, your analysis is both excellent and farsighted. However, with respect, I find your conclusion as to a subsequent Harper "small majority" somewhat premature.
[updated Sat Nov 14 21:23:13 EST 2009]
14 Nov 21:23
Tom Good
Ronald: Just my projection from my perspective. So far the Liberal camp has not deemed it necessary to give so much as a glimpse of what their plan / programme for Canada may be for the next week let alone for the next couple of years IF ELECTED. In my opinion, a major weakness but I am just a voice in the wilderness and nobody in headquarters can be budged unless a stick of dynamite is stuck in the appropriate place----probably take two sticks ! ! ! !.
Talking about a wilderness----that is exactly where the Conservatives found themselves after Mulroney and he did it in grand style. If the Liberals continue DOWN the same road they have been travelling for the last couple of years, they will find Mulroney's vacant spot in that wilderness camp ground. It is not that the Conservatives are particularly strong but is more that the Liberals are lacking ideas they may care to share with the electorate at the moment. Today, it seems to me that the Conservatives are looking forward---more power to them-----and the Liberals are looking back and clinging to the status quo. The past is history, is set in concrete and cannot be changed but the future,---- that can be shaped and it is where all our fortunes lie. The Conservatives have it, the Liberals, by choice, have lost it.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:09:43 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:09
RonaldODowd
Tom,
There goes my political career in Ottawa...but Michael is wrong to keep the platform under wraps until the election. It is our saving grace, our strong suit of armour. He needs to put it on now and wear it, even if the Conservatives steal much of it.
That is where we are politically. Time for the boldest of moves, IMHO.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:16:17 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:16
Tom Good
Ronald: AGREED. Bet you cannot get past the dinosaur gatekeepers in Ottawa. Get your camping gear together because that is where we are headed. So much for listening to the "grass roots"-----just words ! ! !
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:25:47 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:25
hollinm
Ronald....we finally agree on something. Iffy for better or worse had better start putting something on the table or he will be dismissed by the electorate in the next election.
Waiting for a campaign with all the vacuuous analysis by the media will not be sufficient time to discuss significant policy changes or direction (Iam expecting the Libs still have some). Once again unless Iffy can put some life in whatever policies he is proposing they will be dismissed out of hand (maybe unfairly or fairly). He has to present those ideas in less of a professorial manner but rather with some conviction.
If he goes back to the well with things like national daycare, Kelowna and child poverty etc. those ideas will be rejected by Canadians. Of course those big spending ideas will be couched in depending on the state of the finances which means no committment.
The fact is there is no room for big spending announcments so Iffy if he does do that will fall flat on his face. Canadians know we need to focus on solving the deficit over the next 5-10 years.
[updated Sun Nov 15 13:22:10 EST 2009]
15 Nov 13:22
Bernie
Tom I found one or two sentences to disagree with :-)
It's my nature not to respond to posts I agree with. In you case it would be boring` All I'd have to do is copy each of you sentences and write "I agree:" after them.
That wouldn't be an efficient or productive use of time and energy.
Anyway, here goes! "I would say the next General Election has been decided. Harper has out-foxed them all."
While it looks like Harper may finally get his majority. One weekend or one event could easily alter that perception. A week is a long time in politics.
As for Harper has outfoxed them all, that is the part I disagree most about.
I can't bring myself to believe that the majority of Canadians are so lacking in intelligence as to be outfoxed. Harper has always had the support of one third of the population. But that third have always been Conservative and would vote for a Conservative fox -- in a hen house. He has to get 5% to 10% more and get them on election day. And you are right he may do it! It maybe wishful thinking on my part but I don't think he will.
I don't think he is smart. The communicators do a good job of creating the myth of Harper's "smartness'. And by now he believes it himself. and that may be his downfall. he will end up outsmarting himself.
And again you are right, he doesn't have to bet smart to beat Ignatieff. Iggy is intelligent but he hasn't good judgement and not relying on his own, he defers to "them" and "they" don't know their proverbial -- --- -- -- ---. Maybe more wishful thinking, given time ( before the next election) they will hear and listen to the grassroots and there will lie the answer to, "how do I get elected``.
We`ll both know in 6 months or so.
[updated Sun Nov 15 08:48:04 EST 2009]
15 Nov 08:48
hollinm
Bernie.....when will you get it in your head. There are only two choices for PM;Harper and Iffy.
Canadians have been saying since Iffy was interim and then appointed leader they believe Harper is the better leader. So to suggest that suddenly Iffy is going to be propelled by some miracle in the PM's job is ludicrous.
You can insult a large number of Canadians by saying they have lost the minds but that doesn't and will not change their perception of Harper. It is your opinion.
So when the next election comes along Canadians will have to make the determination as to who is best to lead the country. The question will be how many NDP/Liberals believe it is time to put a majority government in place and vote for the party that has the momentum going into and during the election.
At this point the odds are on a Conservative majority. No amount of wishful thinking on your part will change that.
[updated Sun Nov 15 13:29:31 EST 2009]
15 Nov 13:29
Tom Good
Bernie: This is an interesting time in Canadian politics where none of the parties really want an election as the polls are not in their favour, the dollars are not there or they really do not have a platform as yet or they really are not sure what political ground they are going to lay claim to. Principles they used to stand for and could be identified with are blurred if they are there at all. Political integrity, if it was ever there, is nowhere to be found and the constant chant today is"........will I get re-elected, will I get re-elected, will I get re-elected". No politician would be caught dead saying "....I am there to serve the people of Canada and I listen to them".
Meaningful debate in the House of Commons is almost a thing of the past. Question period is minimal and it is the time for making funny remarks or tweek the nose of this or that MP. Individual MPs have been reduced to "yes-men" for the party and really dare not speak for their constituents or speak as individuals. I believe the root cause for the deterioration of parliament is the emergence of an all powerful Office of the Prime Minister that now has something like 529 people on the payroll. Starting with Trudeau, that office has surplanted the House of Commons as the control centre / decision centre / nerve centre for the governance of Canada. The current government has perfected the top down rule of the land. The solution is to reduce the budget for the PMO and return relevance to the House of Commons but none of the turkeys there, in a minority parliament, would dare such a sensible motion.
Yes, Harper has out foxed them all.
[updated Sun Nov 15 14:58:00 EST 2009]
15 Nov 14:58
Bernie
Tom. I was about to say well this time I find nothing to disagree with
Then I saw the last line.:-). I'll compromise; I'll agree if you include himself as one of 'them all'
[updated Sun Nov 15 21:08:48 EST 2009]
15 Nov 21:08
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good writes,
"Brusmit: Cannot disagree with your analysis but you have to accept that Liberal "mismanagement" is a Conservative strength."
No real disagreement on that point, although I would say that the Liberal mismanagement is more of a Liberal weakness that the Conservatives have manipulated to their advantage, than a Conservative strength.
Tom Good writes,
"That is rather "soft ground" on which to build anything but it just may work for Harper this time"
As to soft ground, I would have to say that it is more of an issue for the Liberals than the Conservatives as the the Liberals have to dig a lot deeper to set their footings prior to starting to build their foundation, once they have done that they can consider adding a first floor.
The Conservatives on the other hand have built an extremely strong foundation by defeating Mr. Martin and forming their first minority, they have completed their first floor when they defeat Mr. Dion and returned with a larger minority and now they are building their second floor with their handling of Mr. Ignatieff and if all goes according to plan, the second floor will be completed in the spring.
[updated Sat Nov 14 20:00:57 EST 2009]
14 Nov 20:00
Tom Good
Brusmit: I do not disagree with what you say but I believe your reasoning may be flawed. So far Harper has faced rather a poor lot of Liberal leaders-----Mr. Dithers, the deaf green chap, and now Ignatieff who cannot manage to launch anything to date. Had that not been so, then Harper should have had a majority a long time ago but the "Liberal brand" is holding him back and certainly not the Liberal leaders. If the "Liberal brand" had a better leader, then we may not be seeing Harper inching ahead BECAUSE of Liberal ineptitude. There is something about Harper that the Canadian electorate does not warm to very quickly otherwise, as I said, he should have had a majority long before this date.
[updated Sat Nov 14 21:37:17 EST 2009]
14 Nov 21:37
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good,
Mr. Chretien had a divided conservative party, that allowed him to run up the middle and win seats that he would not have won against one party and without that advantage Mr. Chretien would not have won three majorities.
His other advantage was Mr. Stockwell day and the Hidden Conservative agenda that the media was selling for the Liberals that they used on Mr. Day and then on Mr. Harper over three elections with dimishing returns after each election.
Mr. Trudeau had Mr. Clark and Mr. Mulroney had Mr. Turner, Mr. Chretien had Mr. day, Mr. Harper had Mr. Martin, Mr. Dion and now Mr. Ignatieff.
Each of those who ended up sitting in the house as PM won against a weak LOL, so I would say that each played the hand that they were delivered and won.
Now regarding the question pf majority, I would say it was more the action of the Liberal friendly media that has deprived Mr. Harper of his majority.
People will ahve strong views on that, but if one looks at the media coverage for the Conservatives and measure it against the Liberals it is rather one sided.
[updated Sat Nov 14 21:59:44 EST 2009]
14 Nov 21:59
Tom Good
Brusmit: The media gets blamed for too much as people are supposed to think----admittedly, far too many do not think for themselves. Out in BC, Canwest gets blamed for being Conservative friendly. Whoever is in power has a tendency to say the media is on the other side. Do not know who the Greens or the NDP can call upon.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:19:13 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:19
hollinm
Tom.....I have to disagree. You and I both know the Liberal media have no use for the Conservatives and when Harper gave them the snub after he was elected in 2006 it was an all out jihad against the government.
It is very seldom that you can find columns/opinion pieces that do not criticize the government. The last election on the poopin puffins was on example. That thing ran for days. The first wave of truth ads where attacked by the media and so the Libs only had to sit back and watch.
The same holds true with wafergate. The media didn't no proof before running with the story. This is our Prime Minister and they had no hesitation to demean him. It served their purpose. It was proven to be a conspiracy by the media outlet. It is fully believed the Liberal party was behind the story although it hasn't been definitely proven.
The list goes on. Harper is in Asia and the first headline is that Harper is being criticized at APEC. Nothing positive just negative.
The good thing is most Canadians are no longer listening but there are those who believe everything they hear and say if the media says it it must be true.
So there is no way you can convince me that the media is likely to portray Harper and the government in a positive light. They are looking all the time and if they can find a tid bid they will run with it for all it is worth.
[updated Sun Nov 15 23:49:57 EST 2009]
15 Nov 23:49
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good writes,
I would ask you to provide one positive headline for the Conservatives in the past week, I on the other hand have at least 38 negative headlines.
[updated Mon Nov 16 08:39:18 EST 2009]
16 Nov 08:39
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
I hope you remembered to check whether you were building in an earthquake zone. They've been know to happen in Canada, don't you know!
[updated Sun Nov 15 09:23:06 EST 2009]
15 Nov 09:23
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd,
That is why you always start with a strong foundation, a lesson that the Liberals would appear to have forgotten.
Be Seeing You
[updated Sun Nov 15 09:57:54 EST 2009]
15 Nov 09:57
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good writes,
" For example, the Liberals should have been shouting their support for Harper's proposal to increase the seats in the House of Commons for the under represented areas of Canada and......and the list goes on and on."
Excellent points and ones that I have been stating for some time now, is that the lack of public policy or I should say absence of public policy over the past three years from the Liberals has taken a toll on their numbers and will continue to do so.
The problem for the Liberals is how to get out of this box that they have placed themselves in as their position has been, that the OLO job is to oppose the Government agenda and not support it and they have positioned themselves as well that they will only bring a policy forward at election time, this has been their position over the three OLO and their many COS.
Switching now, would enable the Conservatives to beat down the Liberals with their own previous words of non support of the Government agenda and the Conservatives would be able to brand them as having no constant position on policy and that they flop from one position to the other.
So how do the Liberals get out of this hole, well the first point that they should be aware of is that you cannot dig your way out of a hole and that the dirt that they are trying to dig is not sticking to the Conservatives.
As to the balance of the who, what, when, where and why of getting the Liberals back on track, well I leave that to the skills of sly (Inactive), Bernie, elf, RonaldODowd and all the other Liberal supporters out there.
[updated Sat Nov 14 09:12:00 EST 2009]
14 Nov 09:12
Tom Good
Brunsmit: Nothing is "sure" in politics so never feel complacent. All politicians flip flop if it serves their objective which is usually staying in power. Harper is a superb tactician, as he has demonstrated, and "flip flop" is prominent in his bag of tricks also. All governments are victims of cumulative error in the eyes of the electorate.
[updated Sat Nov 14 15:10:55 EST 2009]
14 Nov 15:10
brusmit (Suspended)
Tom Good writes,
"All governments are victims of cumulative error in the eyes of the electorate."
The reccession, rising CDN dollar, housing market collapsing, the market crash, H1N1, the many Conservative scandals etc etc etc and after one year the Conservatives and the Liberals are still at the same percentages that they received in the last election.
So I would ask you, who do you feel is the is the victim of cumulative error here the Conservatives or the Liberals.
[updated Sat Nov 14 20:12:23 EST 2009]
14 Nov 20:12
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
Both parties, quite obviously. It's a question of degree: when you are relatively error-free you rise AND THEN MAINTAIN. You don't drop or even dip except for relatively minor fluctuations.
In this case, Conservatives are maintaining at traditional levels. Not so hot. Liberals ditto. Again, plenty of room for improvement.
[updated Sun Nov 15 10:06:53 EST 2009]
15 Nov 10:06
brusmit (Suspended)
RonaldODowd,
That works for me,
[updated Sun Nov 15 13:45:49 EST 2009]
15 Nov 13:45
Bernie
It's worrisome that 38% of those polled would vote for the Conservatives. That's dangerously close to a majority. As long as Harper leads the party our country will be going backward. I would still have to vote Green.
We have never had a leader of our country or a party in our history who has done as much damage to our country or party as Harper. There maybe some other in the Conservative whom I would vote for but Harper won't allow them to speak for themselves we will never know what they stand for so I don't know one of them that I might vote for under different circumstances.
I would vote for Peter Stoffer if he were leader of the NDP, or Bob Rae if he were Liberal leader.
I know Harper can't be a good PM. I don't think Ignatieff would be either. Layton, maybe, would better than either of them, but still not quite good enough. So that leaves May as the best of a bad lot.
For the most important issue, the environment, Harper has not done one thing for four years. He does not care about young Canadians dying for no good cause in a far off land.I does not care about a 15 year old Canadian boy illegally held in another country, deprive of all his human rights. He disobeys the laws of the land. (even his own law) his is concerned and generous to the rich and powerful but is uncaring and does little for the disenfranchised. He has the destroyed the good image of Canada abroad. He continually lies to and insults Canadians.
Just his attitude toward that poor kid down in Guantanamo reveals what a despicable excuse for a human being he is. How could anybody vote for that.
[updated Sat Nov 14 08:32:22 EST 2009]
14 Nov 08:32
52 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Jan from Whitby
It seems to me that PM Harper is smart enough to not try to trigger an election.He has show to be a good PM for Canada.
[updated Sat Nov 14 08:50:48 EST 2009]
14 Nov 08:50
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Harper may have put himself in the no election box because he had no idea that Iffy could be as bad as he has turned out to be.
However, while he cannot be seen to force an unwanted election I do think he believes that this is not the right time to go to the polls. While the Conservatives are outpolling the Libs 10-15 pts the Conservative vote is inefficient as the pollsters like to say because of the high support in Alberta and the relatively few seats that the Conservatives can win. So I think Harper has made the calculation that it is better to bide his time and allow the chips to fall where they may.
In the meantime he has the opposition parties stymied. The Libs don't want to support the government because it makes them appear weak. The NDP know they could lose seats if the public decides that a majority government is better than what we have now and decide to move their votes to Conservatives to ensure a majority.
However, I would not be surprised to see Parliament called back in mid January where a budget is presented prior to the Olympics. Despite the budget constraints there will be taxpayer friendly "goodies" and the opposition parties will be forced to make a decision. Included in the budget will be the HST enabling legislation (needs to be passed by March 31st) and the NDP will bail based on their opposition to it. So the Libs will be back in their ever shrinking box and may well have to support the budget if the polls remain as they are.
In the meantime the Conservatives continue to build their brand across the country taking full advantage of the stimulus spending, ensuring Canadians understand that the Conservative government is working hard to minimize the impact of the recession and beginning to tackle some of the thorny issues that the Libs avoided for so many years i.e. immigration.
In the meantime the Libs have once again built up the arrival of Donolo as the next saviour of the Liberal party. Like Iffy who they recruited from Harvard to save them and is failing it needs to be pointed out that Donolo was simply a Director of Communications in the Chretien government, has not been in partisan politics since 1999 and it is quite different being a Cheif of Staff where you are in charge of the whole thing. The skills sets are not necessarily transferrable.
There is no doubt Donolo will bring some organization to the OLO but can he change the image of Iffy? That is the big question and one the Conservatives will be watching closely.
[updated Sat Nov 14 09:59:32 EST 2009]
14 Nov 09:59
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Eternally Optomistic
I wonder if it is time for Donolo to start looking at replacing WK as the war room strategist. Seems to me that everyone WK has hung his hat with since Chretien has dropped off the end of the earth.
[updated Sat Nov 14 11:04:53 EST 2009]
14 Nov 11:04
29 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Harper: In The Wrong Place At The Wrong Time!
Poor Prime Minister. Out in Singapore, India and China when he should really be in the U.S. preparing to sit down for American Thanksgiving.
After all, it could be either turkey or goose both of which have been sufficiently cooked. Sound familiar?
What to do? Dipping in the Nanos poll as we slowly make our way toward the traditional polling benchmarks. Trouble ahead for that long anticipated Conservative MAJORITY.
Nothing quite like the sound reasoned judgment of the Canadian people. Look at the undecided - it's a case of back to the future with a substantial chunk of voters clearly saying that Harper isn't the man. They prefer to park or yoyo between the NDP and the Liberals.
As the number one Conservative on this board might say: "I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T-I-N--G. Sort of gets you where you live, doesn't it? Bye, bye Conservative majority. The voters regard this PM as competent but they don't TRUST him enough to bestow the keys to the kingdom. Again, back to the traditional perception of Harper.
Sooner or later, people will take a stand. Theoretically, at least, that means either a massive shift to the NDP, or more likely, the Liberals. When that happens, someone will be well on their way to a majority but their name won't be Conservative.
By all means, bring on your budget in January. I for one, can't wait. It can't come before Parliament soon enough for me. I'm willing to wait until spring, if necessary but look forward to taking you guys on anytime, anywhere.
Watch for more Conservative dips in subsequent polls. Happy Holidays!
[updated Sat Nov 14 12:24:49 EST 2009]
14 Nov 12:24
27 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Laurie58
Well, looks like the Libs actually gained 0.6% on the CPC over
the last Poll numbers. :) It amazes me that the Libs can hang
around 30% in suport even in the worst of times. It goes to show
what an amazing base they have, and that one major slip by
the CPC could turn the game around. Also noteworthy is the
fact that 19% are undecided. I would think that while the numbers
should cheer the CPC, they must be nervous in the realisation that,
remarkably, the Liberals remain within striking distance.
Mr. Nanos, I think you should do a survey of both the general public
and the CPC party members, on the following question or one like
it: "Do you think Stephen Harper can ever lead the Conservative
Party to a majority government?"
[updated Sat Nov 14 12:46:05 EST 2009]
14 Nov 12:46
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
The Pleasures Of Singapore.
A tale of two guys -- one stuck in boring meetings while the other is free to roam across the countryside, blading to his heart's content.
The latter continues to stay in shape -- he's fit and trim and ready for his political future. Who knows, after the next election, he may get his chance.
He would be an interesting opponent. He's tough, without a mean bone in his body. Time will tell whether we meet on the battlefield.
[updated Sat Nov 14 13:05:45 EST 2009]
14 Nov 13:05
52 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
twiens
Stats, stats and more stats. Having worked with stats for a good part of my life I am well aware of how they can be used. You can give the same set of numbers to five different statistical analysts and get five sets of outcomes based on the philosophy of the analyst. That is why I don't pay a lot of attention to polls. What is most obvious to me is the type of results that comes out of the different areas of our country. To me, that just re-enforces the need for political change...not in politician but in the structure of our political system.
We have become to diverse a country for a centralized political system. We continually hear from all political parties about making changes to our system and to date I have seen little. Personally I really don't care for any of the current leaders but am very happy to have a minority government right now. From my point of view that helps keep a political balance right now which is what we need. My support for a Prime Minister will go to the first leader who takes real steps to change our structure and not to someone that talks up, as an example, Senate reform and then appoint as many Senators that he can. There has to be a middle ground between the American system and the British parliamentary system. The first leader to do that has me.
[updated Sat Nov 14 13:08:10 EST 2009]
14 Nov 13:08
33 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Brusmit,
Since you are in unusually fine form today, I have a question for you concerning Remembrance Day:
I understand why Viet Nam is not inscribed on our cenotaph in Ottawa. Undeclared war, Canada not officially part of it, etc.
But why did we not commemorate our veterans from the Boer War? Surely, that was a Canadian war with volunteers fighting for King and Country. Didn't Laurier play at least a semi-active role regarding same?
Thanks in advance for your time and your opinion, if proffered.
[updated Sat Nov 14 22:24:35 EST 2009]
14 Nov 22:24
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
I am delighted to see that both Nik's poll and the Ekos poll earlier this week show the Conservatives edging away from majority territory. I can live with a Con minority government, but like most Canadians, as indicated by the trend of the Con tide retreating each time it comes close to a majority, I don't want a Conservative majority.
Also heartening to me as an unreconstructed dipper, is to see the NDP edge back to the 18%they received last election.
[updated Mon Nov 16 09:42:54 EST 2009]
16 Nov 09:42
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
With the Liberal preoccupation with H1N1 one has to wonder why the Liberals continue to try and play this story into a major issue as the headlines from across Canada are showing a clear trend that Canadians are moving on and the media hype has slowed to a trickle on this file.
Time for the Liberals to move on to the next big issue facing Canadians as this one was a non starter from the get go and no matter how they try to spin it, the only political capital that they will receive is if a large number of Canadians start to die.
So for the Liberals are reduced to being cheerleaders, with individuals such as Mr. Rae, Ms. Bennet and other Liberals at the request of Mr. Ignatieff new COS are out there leading the cheers and fear mongering about Canadians dying.
The Canadian Press, Date: Tuesday Nov. 17, 2009 9:05 AM ET
Headline - H1N1's true toll may take months to become clear.
From the piece,
"Are you confused by the H1N1 numbers? Wondering why public health officials are making such a fuss about a virus that has so far killed so few people? You aren't alone."
"After all, we're told seasonal flu kills between 4,000 to 8,000 Canadians and between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide each year. Yet as of late last week, seven months into this outbreak, H1N1 had killed 161 Canadians and an estimated 6,260 people around the globe. "
[updated Tue Nov 17 09:32:39 EST 2009]
17 Nov 09:32
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Here is another Headline that I have not seen carried in the other Conservative friendly media outlets and one could question as to why it is not being carried as it is excellent news for the Conservatives and their form of Governing.
It speaks to the how well the Conservatives are handling the question of transparency during their terms as Government as their work on this file is described as being "inspirational" and it is clear contrast to the time under the Liberals were Canada`s standing fell to an all time low.
From the piece
"Canada's score, as high as 9.0 in 2002, slid steadily to 8.4 in 2005 as a result of the sponsorship scandal. It bounced up to 8.7 in the 2007 TI index, a level it has maintained in the two subsequent TI studies."
It is interesting that the Liberals, NDP and Bloc are attacking the Conservative on this file as they have been recognized by a world agency for their high quality and standards that they have set and that is reflected in the increase in Canada`s standing since the Conservative assumed power.
This yet one more example of the Liberals under the direct of Mr. Ignatieff and his COS choosing yet again lies over truth and the Liberals wonder why they are disconnected from Canadians and will remain so until they can find their values again and stop seeking power for the sack of power and try and bring new public policy to Canadians for debate.
Global News.
Canada least corrupt in the Americas:
Report by Peter O'Neil, Canwest News Europe Correspondent, Canwest News Service: Tuesday, November 17, 2009 6:02 AM.
"Canada is viewed as the least corrupt country in the Americas and is an "inspiration" for the U.S. and other neighbours in the hemisphere, Transparency International said in its annual report published Tuesday."
"The Berlin-based watchdog ranked Canada eighth globally, in a tie with Australia and the Netherlands, in its index that assesses internal perceptions of corruption in 180 countries."
"In first place was New Zealand while in second last place, just ahead of the failed state of Somalia, was Afghanistan, the largest recipient of Canadian development aid."
"Canada, with a score of 8.7 out of 10, "continues to be among the ten countries with the lowest perceived levels of corruption worldwide, serving as a benchmark and inspiration for the Americas," TI said in its report."
[updated Tue Nov 17 10:09:56 EST 2009]
17 Nov 10:09
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Don Martin, National Post Published: Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Headline: Liberals immune to flu facts
The observations that Mr. Martin brings forward in today's piece goes directly to the heart of what is wrong with the Liberals and why even with a new COS in the OLO, they are still flipping and flopping around the issues of the day.
"Scare tactics continue as public fears wane"
How Liberal no public policy but there seems to be no end to the fear mongering and lies.
From the piece,
"There's a palpable easing of the public health hysteria that was inflicting so much distress on the government for most of the last month -- although that was clearly news to the Liberals."
It was in all the papers, perchance Mr. Ignatieff new COS missed it while he was busy cutting all these Liberal staffers just before Christmas, what a nice Christmas present from Mr. Ignatieff to his staff.
"The Official Opposition may have been operating under new office management yesterday, but you would never have known it by their same old Question Period fear mongering laced with half-truths, a tactic perhaps more symptomatic of party desperation than anything dramatically new on the health file.
Well, that just about says it all, what is new is old again in a very short time and it only took one day, who would have thought.
From the Piece,
"For starters, they warned, the immunization completion date will be delayed by several months and could extend into February."
"This is patently false -- Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq says the program is still on track for completion by Christmas and notes some jurisdictions will be finished their rollout this week -- and it does nothing but heighten anxiety among Canadians and add panic to the lineups of parents seeking to ensure their kids have the shot."
Patently false, what can be more straight forward than that - the Liberals are playing fast and loose with the truth and why does the truth scare the Liberal so much that they need to resort to lies to try and make a point.
From the Piece
"The Liberals also seem to be boosting flu figures for dramatic effect by saying there have been at least 41 deaths in the past week and 190 deaths in total. The latest information on public health agency websites indicate 20 deaths in the last week and 135 in total."
The Liberals are boosting the numbers of how many Canadians have died from H1N1, is the number of these tragic deaths not high enough for Mr. Igantieff and his new COS, that they have to lie about how many have died.
From the Piece
"They also forget to add context to statistics that are obviously tragic for the victims, but hardly worthy of panic in a country where weekly H1N1 deaths are now roughly a third of the average traffic fatality count."
We are back to the point where the Liberals are calling out fire in a crowd room where there is no fire, in the hope of creating panic and fear.
From the Piece
"If H1N1 has "overwhelmed many hospital ICUs," as the Liberals allege, that's news to the media although, to be fair, that could happen if the pandemic worsens."
"And as if to underline that their scare tactics are getting thin, the Liberals say ethnic communities could suffer from health-care ignorance because the federal government has failed to translate vaccine program information into many languages. Local health authorities, of course, handle that kind of targeted communication, and they are quite capable of doing so in many languages."
Straight forward fear mongering by the Liberals in the hope of reviving their faltering numbers among new Canadians, I really cannot see anything more debased than that from the Liberals, but the day is not over yet and QP is no line again today.
From the Piece
"It's time to downplay the spin doctors and concentrate on medical facts as this pandemic reaches what seems to be a weaker-than-predicted peak."
"Prevailing expert opinion is that the odds of dying from this H1N1 bug are the same as any run-of-the-mill flu and may indeed be considerably less by the time the mass immunization is done which, it's safe to predict, will happen earlier than predicted and probably by mid-December."
Mr. Martin`s words are very reasonable and the Liberals should be taking his advice on this and backing off the hype and lies as it does not serve Canada well.
[updated Tue Nov 17 10:52:50 EST 2009]
17 Nov 10:52
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Well, here is today`s newest Conservative scandal unearthed by the ever vigilant Liberal party of Canada and on reflection it is just more of the same nonsense that the Liberals have been parading in front of Canadians for the past year now.
It sounds good on the sound bit`s and the news cycles but it does not stand the smell test, so back to books for Mr. Ignatieff new COS as there is nothing new here.
Campbell Clark. Ottawa — From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Published on Monday, Nov. 16, 2009 10:22PM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2009 3:03AM EST
Headline: Tory MPs assailed over mailing costs.
From the piece and it is buried deep down in the piece and it is the most telling part of the article and how the Liberals and this writer have chosen to spin this issue.
"All the parties do it, but the Conservatives have taken to it with zeal: Adding up the costs, the Montreal newspaper Le Devoir found that MPs with the minority Conservatives spent $6.3-million on the mailers, while opposition MPs spent $3.8-million."
Now I am not sure what math the Liberals and this writer are using, perhaps it is the new math but my old math says that if there are 144 Conservatives and there are 77 Liberals, that means that there are twice as many Conservatives.
So the $6.3 million spent by the Conservatives is in fact proportionally less than the $3.8 Million that was spent by the Liberals, now my solution to Mr. Ignatieff and his new COS and the Liberal members of house is to force an election and receive more seats, that way they can have more money to spend on the 10% other wise - take a seat and stopm the whine it is getting old.
Good old new Liberal math as the numbers never seem to add up.
From the piece.
"Opposition complains parliamentary privilege is being abused for propaganda purposes."
" The Conservatives have made free mail expensive."
"Reports that Tory MPs ran up $6.3-million in costs last year by mailing out so-called “ten-per-centers” to people outside their ridings have opposition MPs calling for new limits on the free-mail privilege."
"The pamphlets are a parliamentary perk: MPs have free mailing privileges, called franking, that allow them to send information outside their riding. But Conservatives have employed them at twice the rate of other MPs – and used them to take more bare-knuckled political campaigns into opponents' ridings."
“They don't need to use our free franking privileges to carpet-bomb Canada with propaganda. It infuriates me,” New Democrat MP Pat Martin said.
"The dispute is not over the newsletters that MPs send free to their own constituents four times a year. Parliamentarians have another free-mail privilege that allows them to send mailers to a number of households equal to 10 per cent of the households in their own ridings. They can send them anywhere in Canada, as many times as they like, as long as they change them substantially each time. And parties can group batches of MPs together, combining their 10-per-cent numbers, to send bigger m
[updated Tue Nov 17 11:29:56 EST 2009]
17 Nov 11:29
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Well it would appear that H1N1 is no dead on arrival with the Liberals and just look at what they have chosen to hitch their wagon to this time.
CTV - Afghan prisoners were tortured, diplomat says.
"Afghanistan's intelligence service tortured every detainee handed over to them by Canadian soldiers in 2006-2007, a federal official testified today. "
"According to our information, the likelihood is that all the Afghans we handed over were tortured," he said.
"For interrogators in Kandahar, it was standard operating procedure."
CBC - All Afghan detainees likely tortured: diplomat.
"All detainees transferred by Canadians to Afghan prisons were likely tortured by Afghan officials and many of the prisoners were innocent, says a former senior diplomat with Canada's mission in Afghanistan.
"Appearing before a House of Commons committee Wednesday, Richard Colvin blasted the detainees policies of Canada and compared them with the policies of the British and the Netherlands."
Toronto Star - Canada ignored torture warnings: Diplomat.
"A former senior Canadian diplomat in Afghanistan has levelled bombshell allegations suggesting the military knowingly handed detainees to Afghan authorities where they were tortured.
"Richard Colvin, now an intelligence officer at the Canadian embassy in Washington, said Canada took six times as many detainees as coalition partners from Britain and the Netherlands, had no way to track their whereabouts, and ignored warnings they were being tortured with electrical tables, extreme temperatures, knives and sexual abuse."
Global and Mail - Canada handed over innocent Afghans to torture, diplomat tells Commons committee.
"All of the prisoners Canada handed over to Afghanistan's notorious intelligence service in 2006-07 were tortured and many of them were likely innocent, a federal official has testified. "
"Intelligence officer Richard Colvin, a former diplomat in Afghanistan, testified before a special House of Commons committee Wednesday. "
Well this should interesting, no proof and no facts and the Liberal friendly media being unable able to sell "that canadains are dying from H1N1 for the Liberals have now moved on to the next Conservative scandal, one can only wonder what it will be next week.
[updated Wed Nov 18 17:28:54 EST 2009]
18 Nov 17:28
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
FIVE YEAR STUDY blog---the latest one. If you wish to get access, into your favourites enter www.nikonthenumbers.com and enter the blog that way.
[updated Fri Nov 20 22:02:38 EST 2009]
20 Nov 22:02
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid Polls: Something Bad For Just About Everyone...
What strikes me in general terms about Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid (and Ekos before them) is that Conservatives continue to have momentum -- but it's faltering. (Mind you, they won't be breaking into tears with a thirteen to fifteen point lead.)
But they do have reason to be worried if their eyes are still on the same ball: that of coming out of the next campaign with a majority Conservative government. I've been carping about this for an eternity and boldly predicted (some would argue foolishly!) quite some time ago that we'll never see the election of a CPC majority. (You will also recall my other gem -- namely, that sooner or later we will find ourselves smack in the middle of an election and that voters will give Michael a mandate to govern. Again, my own view is that people are itching for a majority, and for better or worse, Michael is the only leader that is even remotely perceived as a contender by most people who happen to vote anything other than Conservative. That's why I'm expecting an eventual Liberal majority.)
To my mind, Ekos, Angus Reid and most recently, Ipsos Reid are beginning to show the way. People are parking their votes with a whopping ten percent in the Green column (Angus Reid). Ipsos Reid has the NDP rising by six points while AR has them stable. That has happened to the NDP more times than I can shake a stick at, in the past, but the NDP has never been able in recent polls to make permanent significant headway against the Liberals. That is known as a pure, unadulterated fact!
Once again (and thank the deity for it), Conservatives have missed another open and now rapidly closing window preferring to "bide their time". Big mistake, IMHO.
Meanwhile, over at our bench, Peter has his work cut out for him. We know what we have to do. We've found the common resolve to do it. So let's get to work. Many of you know what direction I think we should head in. But that's not my call, is it...
So stay tuned as we head into spring for the inevitable showdown with this government. A week is indeed a very long time in politics (some longer than others!). But keep the faith, and keep smiling.
Think of it as In The Kitchen With Master Chefs...then enjoy the slicing and dicing as each party manoeuvers to get a significant strategic advantage over the others.
[updated Sat Nov 21 16:55:50 EST 2009]
21 Nov 16:55
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
With Mr. Ignatieff at 23% in the polls out come the Liberal knives.
From the Toronto Star. Published On Sun Nov 22 2009, Sidhartha Banerjee, The Canadian Press
Stéphane Dion's wife shares her disdain for Michael IgnatieffFacebook posting slams his ability to lead party.
Stephane Dion leaves with his wife, Janine Krieber, after speaking to the media following Prime Minister Stephen Harper's federal election announcement in Ottawa, Sept. 7, 2008.
"The outspoken wife of former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion has written a scathing letter in which she questions Michael Ignatieff's ability to lead the party out of its current woes.
In a note published on her Facebook page and subsequently circulated among party members, Janine Krieber wrote Friday that the party was in full collapse and the future appeared bleak.
A fellow university professor, Krieber said party members were duped by Ignatieff and would have recognized his obvious shortcomings if they'd only taken the time to read his academic writings.
She also said the party would pay for refusing to endorse a historic left-wing coalition in an attempt to oust the Conservatives last December.
She writes that her husband was working to rebuild the party after last year's disappointing election result but had those efforts short-circuited by Ignatieff, who first dethroned Dion without a leadership race and then dumped the idea of forming a coalition with the other opposition parties.
"Stéphane was ready to take the time and the shots (against him) in order to rebuild the party," she said. "But they (party members) didn't accept the 26 per cent (of the popular vote in the last election). Now we're at 23."
Sources say Dion, a Montreal MP, was not involved in producing the note and that people in his camp persuaded Krieber, who has never shied away from expressing her opinion, to delete the message Saturday."
[updated Sun Nov 22 09:36:55 EST 2009]
22 Nov 09:36
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
RonaldODowd
Open Season For Comments!
What do you think of CDS Walter Natynczyk's comments that Afghan prisoner transfers were stopped more than once -- contrary to what the government had previously put on the record?
Is it a "bombshell" as claimed on CBC News Network or less than that? Is it still trouble for the Harper government?
NOT RELATED: I can't resist this one. CBC NN is running Orgasm Inc. about the lack of blood flow to the female sex organs. Seesh. They don't need a pill to fix it, she just said. I agree. What don't they just STOP smoking! You would think women would know what that alone does to blood vessels...(But as per usual, I digress.)
[updated Sun Nov 22 22:13:12 EST 2009]
22 Nov 22:13
17 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
brusmit (Suspended)
Well considering that Liberals are now down another couple of percentages points to 23%, I guess it is time to close the book on H1N1 which was the one / two week wonder that the Liberals were banking on to improve their numbers.
Canadians were never impressed with the Liberal, Media hype on this file and have moved on as they did for the preceeding Chq Gate, the Torch, the 10% and other scandals
This has me wondering, how long the most recent one will last.
It is now into it`s second week and depending on how the committee plays out, it should be interesting to see whether or not the Liberals will get another bump in the wrong direction for attacking the Canadian forces through the Government on this file.
[updated Mon Nov 23 08:29:54 EST 2009]
23 Nov 08:29
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.