Thursday, June 20, 2013 - (47085 comments)

Nanos National Poll: Conservatives widen advantage over Grits: Nanos Poll (Completed October 18th)

612 comments Latest by brusmit (Suspended)

Our latest Nanos poll shows that support for the Conservatives continues to increase while Liberal support is in decline. With the Tories holding a ten point advantage over the Liberals this represents the widest gap between the two parties since the last federal election.

Of note, since last months polling, the Liberal Party’s support in Quebec has noticeably decreased - from 32.5% in early September to 24.6%.

The number of undecided voters, nationally, has dropped in the past month from 24.6% in early September, down to 17.5%, likely owing to the subdued election buzz.

To chat about this poll join the national political online chat at Nik on the Numbers. The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,005 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between October 10th and October 18th. A survey of 1,005 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 829 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between August 28th and September 2nd, 2009.

National (n=829)
Conservative 39.8% (+2.3)
Liberal 30.0% (-3.4)
NDP 16.6% (+1.8)
BQ 8.9% (-0.8)
Green 4.6% (NC)
Undecided 17.5% (-7.1)

What do you think?

Cheers,
NJN

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Highest Rated Comments

This poll (being the only other poll out this week) really highlights how the di... more

Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 22 Oct 18:28

I believe this is as much of a poll on "what is the alternative?" as it is a pol... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 22 Oct 19:56

I have to agree completely Nick! What amazes me about Harper is that despite nee... more

psiclone (British Columbia) 22 Oct 18:08

Brusmit, Like you, I don't deny PAST facts! (I'm not saying your version of sam... more

RonaldODowd (Ontario) 30 Oct 06:49

Lex: Well, Zachardelli is gone and the current RCMP head is an civilian appoint... more

Tom Good (British Columbia) 23 Oct 22:24

I'll say its a disgrace. It is really bad for Harper and it shows, because at t... more

GloriaBC (British Columbia) 01 Nov 20:09

Comments

psiclone

I have to agree completely Nick! What amazes me about Harper is that despite needing a personality transplant he continues to lead from day one. I mean really folks think back and be honest with yourselves and I think you would have to agree with me. 2006 he sort of snuck into the House with the slimmest of minorities and was immediately wriiten off completely the toe tags were signed and ready and a life span of 6 months tops given to him. Well now what do we see but going on 4 years later a seasoned and truly brilliant political fighter who has outfoxed, outmanouvered and outplayed all comers so far having turned into an expert at playing whackamole with all the other oppostion leaders including a new one after having retired a previous from the ring .. truly impressive and I have no doubt that he will be remaining in the PM's seat for quite some time - especially after Iggy the gift that keeps on giving!

[updated Thu Oct 22 18:08:51 -0400 2009]

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22 Oct 18:08

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Lex Llewdor

This poll (being the only other poll out this week) really highlights how the different methodologies of EKOS and Nanos produce different numbers for the Green Party.

This is also the best poll result for the Liberals in over a month. No other poll since September 13 has had them at 30 or higher. The four polls completed within a week of this one show LPC support at 28, 25.5, 27, and 27.1.

[updated Thu Oct 22 18:28:28 -0400 2009]

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22 Oct 18:28

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Tom Good

I believe this is as much of a poll on "what is the alternative?" as it is a poll on the growing strength of the Harperites. To his credit, Harper has grown, continues to be an outstanding tactician to the envy of all, while the Liberals should possibly be promoted to the Senate with comfortable armchairs for them to reflect on the past as they pass into history. Somebody has to shake the Liberal tree and get the atrophied status quo dinosaurs to drop out and to be replaced by a few futureists. The Liberals have to reinvent themselves but that appears ellusive with the old guard still in power in the back rooms.

To me, everything that is "Conservative" has Harper at the helm running the show with no ifs or buts. Everything that is Liberal is the backroom policy boys running the show and running Ignatieff, for example, the Coderre challenge to Ignatieff in Quebec and Liberal Senators challenging Ignatieff over the law and order bill. If Ignatieff has some thoughts about the governance of Canada, and I am sure he has, he is not free to express them simply because he is not running the Liberal machine. Barring some terrible stumbles in the Conservative camp, I would suggest that the Liberal Party ----not Ignatieff, has lost the next election before it is called. The Liberals have failed to differentiate themselves and their policies for Canada from the Conservatives and their policies for Canada----a fatal flaw..

[updated Thu Oct 22 19:56:56 -0400 2009]

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22 Oct 19:56

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Bernie

The Conservatives seemed to be in majority territory now. A few weeks of a good selling program would put them over the top
I was surprised with Quebec. I would have thought that there was no redemption for Harper there. I expected to numbers to go even lower. Years ago trends seem longer and sustained . Now they are volatile and can change rapidly, even on a weekend before an election. Certainly they could change radically by Spring time.

I don't understand Canadians tolerating such bad government for so long. I want better for my country and to me it says most voters are not that badly off and so don't care about those other issues that define a nation; Issues that present a beacon for the rest of the world. A light that guides us to a better future for those who come after us.

[updated Sat Oct 24 08:37:52 -0400 2009]

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24 Oct 08:37

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RonaldODowd

All Is "Right" In The World!

I'm all for genuine peace, love and harmony. I always thought that making up is, just like the song says, hard to do...but apparently Quebec's Beauce region seems to be a glaring exception to the rule.

Witness this unbelievable performance from our Prime Minister as reported in The Gazette :

"Maxime is a great friend and great member of my team," Harper told reporters.

Harper was in St. Georges to announce Ottawa would contribute $60.6 million to a $142.6-million fund for upgrades at Quebec post-secondary institutions. The province is putting up $82 million.

"We all know that Max made a mistake ... which he owned up to," Harper said. "He is extremely valued by myself and all his colleagues in Ottawa and it's great to have him on the team."

Not ain't that just one for the history books! Imagine how the PM must cherish yours truly -- continuing down that same path of logic. Please...even in Beauce, they don't come close to being that gullible.

I like Max. I always have. But that guy can forget his future leadership ambitions. That appearance yesterday struck me as so cheezy it's a wonder either man managed to keep a straight face through that finely orchestrated performance.

But alas, they did manage to drop the ball somewhat. Here what I would have used as the closer -- a vigorous rendition by the audience of the following:

GETTING TO KNOW YOU (Oscar Hammerstein)

Anna:
It's a very ancient saying,
But a true and honest thought,
That if you become a teacher,
By your pupils you'll be taught.
As a teacher I've been learning
(You'll forgive me if I boast)
And I've now become an expert,
On the subject I like most.
[Spoken]
Getting to know you.
[Children Giggle]
Getting to know you, getting to know all about you.
Getting to like you, getting to hope you like me.
Getting to know you, putting it my way,
But nicely,
You are precisely,
My cup of tea.
[Children Giggle]

All [Except children]:
Getting to know you,
Getting to know all about you.
Getting to like you,
Getting to hope you like me.
Getting to know you, putting it my way,
But nicely,
You are precisely,

Anna:
My cup of tea.

All (including children):
Getting to know you,
Getting to feel free and easy.
When I am with you,
Getting to know what to say
Haven't you noticed
Suddenly I'm bright and breezy
Because of all the beautiful and new
Things I'm learning about you
Day by day.
Getting to know you,
Getting to feel free and easy.
When I am with you,
Getting to know what to say
Haven't you noticed
Suddenly I'm bright and breezy
Because of all the beautiful and new
Things I'm learning about you
Day by day.

The perfect finale to badly contrived political theatre...

[updated Sat Oct 24 12:46:59 -0400 2009]

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24 Oct 12:46

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RonaldODowd

Lady Macbeth for President...

The runoff is coming in Kabul and across the country in two weeks. Afghan President Hamid Karzai strikes me as a man with few electoral worries. More of the same down the road, I regret to report. He has so many colourful family members.

There's talk of a national unity government under his good auspices. Yawn.

I'm for thinking out of the box: Lady Macbeth for President! Let her political slogan ring across the land -

"Out, damn'd spot! out, I say!—One; two: why, then
'tis time to do't.—Hell is murky.—Fie, my lord, fie, a soldier, and
afeard? What need we fear who knows it, when none can call our
pow'r to accompt?—Yet who would have thought the old man to
have had so much blood in him?"

Pledges of political reform as precious blood continues to flow for naught. But then there's the track record. Nothing quite like highly inconvenient facts. The psychological mindset can't help but continue along with the political paralysis.

Leave it to Lady Macbeth. July 2011 can't come soon enough for me. Bring our people home.

[updated Sat Oct 24 13:50:09 -0400 2009]

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24 Oct 13:50

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RonaldODowd

So Close And Yet Quite Fortunately, So Far!

The political gods seem to be with us - smile Michael. Try as he might, this Prime Minister can't find the magic formula to sustain momentum toward a projected Conservative majority government. All is right in the world.

I want to recommend an excellent and captivating site which one poster here was kind enough to share with us.

Please take a look at: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

Éric does some invaluable work here and we should be extremely grateful to him for his efforts.

Now, here's what strikes me about his numbers. His latest seat projection is 137 Conservative, 98 Liberal, 49 Bloc Québécois and 24 New Democrat. That's a long way from Ekos.

I have a sense that the PM is not about to follow the advice of Jim Travers in The Star to consider going now. Travers argues that waiting does not auger well for this government and I must say that I don't disagree with that statement.

I think we have Stephen Harper nicely boxed in. He won't go now if his political life depended on it. Ditto for Jack. They say that time waits for no man but I think its shown itself willing to allow Michael to catch up!

I agree with those who argue that coasting is not necessarily good for a government's health. What a predicament. Damned if you go now, having to come back with another preordained minority trifecta followed by a new party leader and prime minister; or worse yet, standing pat and generating about as much further political momentum as a car in neutral. Meanwhile, the stone-cutting prime minister continues to smile from the beyond as his party's successor makes systematic and steady progress with the chisel.

Labour on Michael, patience is often its own reward. Particularly, persevering patience. And that my friends, describes Michael to a Tee!

[updated Sat Oct 24 21:36:07 -0400 2009]

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24 Oct 21:36

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syl (suspended)

Today is the 16th anniversary of the full destruction of the old PC party. The newest form,reformatory or PC lite is next on the list.

[updated Sun Oct 25 14:51:30 -0400 2009]

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25 Oct 14:51

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NL_Expatriate

You of all people Nik the numbers NANOS should know that it doesn't matter which party is in power or opp for that matter, they are all nothing but PROXY parties for the ON/QU majority population 181/308 seats!
We have become a Tyranny of the majority population under the guise of democracy.

[updated Sun Oct 25 20:35:08 -0400 2009]

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25 Oct 20:35

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Anti (suspended)

Crime Bill's Cost Investigation by Kevin Page reported at Globe and Mail:

I hope the conservaties have enough funding for a new jail in the far far north for the likes of Jean Chretien and other Liberals involved in the Sponsorship Scandal that is long overdue.

why can the Liberals never pick the correct leader, many say that if it came to an Election today. Ignatieff would do worse than Dion!

What is wrong with the Liberals you tell me. Multiculturalism is a scam brought in by Trudeau and Liberals in world of unreality

[updated Mon Oct 26 15:11:09 -0400 2009]

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26 Oct 15:11

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RonaldODowd

Please, Allow Me!

Due to unseasonably warm weather which has generated considerable unforeseen heat, perhaps I can help by unloading a troublesome bridge over the Saint Lawrence river.

Come on gang. Just chill out and let me take the reins from here. Have a few drinks while celebrating the miracle that is a common cause.

Everything's bound to come out right in the end. Just wait and see.

[updated Mon Oct 26 22:58:54 -0400 2009]

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26 Oct 22:58

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RonaldODowd

Fun With A Wildrose!

This Prime Minister doesn't want to talk about it -- in fact, the word has gone out to keep it shut. No wonder. Wildrose seems to be another successful example of a great western phenomenon: incubator politics.

In Alberta, in many quarters, might makes right. All eyes are on the upcoming leadership review vote on November 7th. If Ed Stelmach turns out to be Joe Clark, the PCs are in serious trouble. My hunch is that the Premier will manage to stick his finger in and secure the dike -- for now.

Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith is on her way. Where it stops nobody knows. The road to power may not be as long as some people think. Time will tell.

Far be it for me to give Albertans advice on provincial politics. That's their business. But please allow me a moment of delicious mischief!

Come on Wildrose. Think about going NATIONAL! Almost four years and counting with right-of-center Conservatives still searching in the wilderness for their beacon prime minister. The present incumbent hasn't kept the fiscal faith. The bible of reform is nowhere to be found in Harper's Ottawa...

What I wouldn't give to help things along. Splitting the right, returning to the status quo ante, works for me. Hell, I wouldn't even have any objections if Monte took on a national Wildrose leadership (wink, wink).

So come on oil patch. Make political history and by all means go national. Stephen Harper is a big boy. He can handle a few more sleepless nights.

[updated Tue Oct 27 11:12:41 -0400 2009]

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27 Oct 11:12

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RonaldODowd

Put A Spade In Their Hands...And They KEEP Digging For The Next Bonehead Play.

Perhaps some time off would help because this one won't be pretty. Witness the latest developments as reported in The Star:

OTTAWA–The Stephen Harper government is refusing to pay the legal bills of a federal official whose warnings of possible torture in Afghan jails sparked a political storm, The Canadian Press has learned.

The Foreign Affairs Department had given preliminary approval last month to Richard Colvin's request to use an independent lawyer.

But it now says it won't pay the first set of bills until Colvin's lawyer, Calgary-based Lori Bokenfohr, itemizes for the Justice Department who she has been in contact with – a requirement that could be a breach of lawyers' ethical rules.

It's the latest development in an escalating dispute involving the envoy-turned-intelligence officer, who has been blocked by federal lawyers from telling a public inquiry what military police knew – or didn't know – about the possible abuse of prisoners by Afghan authorities.

Colvin opted last summer not to rely on someone from the Justice Department's stable of lawyers and, under federal guidelines, Ottawa is obliged to cover the cost.

[updated Tue Oct 27 11:29:43 -0400 2009]

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27 Oct 11:29

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RonaldODowd

Michael,

I don't want to denigrate anyone but thank you for doing what had to be done.

Welcome aboard Peter! We look forward to the turnaround.

I suspect that my words speak for many others.

[updated Tue Oct 27 23:13:33 -0400 2009]

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27 Oct 23:13

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Anti (suspended)

Harper by pass China, just a waste of time, until the Thugs in Beijing change their attitude, It has been confirmed that China bribed,secret deals to get Beijing Olympics away from Toronto, Intergrated Security Force must have 50 officers assigned to YVR to make sure Chinese Nationals linked to this scandal are not let into Canada from Nov 1,2009 to Mar 1,2010, where are these Security people when you need them. We even have to tell them what to do, can you not figure this out on your own. No one to be let in for Olympic Games from China. Where is SUCCESS when you need, all talk and no action from this Chinese group. Harper go straight to India. Another note: Peter Danolo will destroy the Liberals for good, he escaped justice from the APEC Inquiry he is not going to help Liberals. Guaranteed Majority for Conservatives. Liberals have had to dud PM before and now this one.

[updated Wed Oct 28 13:48:16 -0400 2009]

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28 Oct 13:48

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Lex Llewdor

And now we see why the Liberals have failed to make up any ground in the polls.

The press release for the newest Angus Reid poll (which continues to show a 14 point lead for the CPC) contains this nugget:

"Two-in-five Canadians (44%) either completely or moderately trust Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover, while just one-in-four (25%) feel the same way about Ignatieff."

The economy has been the number one issue for a while now, and Canadians apparently don't trust Ignatieff to handle it well.

[updated Wed Oct 28 16:57:47 -0400 2009]

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28 Oct 16:57

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brusmit (Suspended)

From the CBC

Estimated 2.8 million Canadians live abroad, : Thursday, October 29, 2009

Well with 2.8 million "Canadians", living abroad it would explain where all those absent Canadians are on voting day and it would be interesting to see what the number of Canadians living abroad in 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008...

Elections Canada, Canada`s population - 31,612,897

Electors on the lists - 23,677,639 or 74.9%

Total ballots cast - 13,929,093 or 58.8%

Electors on the list minus the 2,800,000 (living abroad) x 74.9% equals 20,972,000 Electors on the list living in Canada.

Total ballots cast 13,930,000 / 20,972,000 (restated Electors) equals 66.4%

If all those "Canadians, were in Canada and voted, based on the percentages in the last General election, the turnout could have been 66.4%.

One interesting observation in the article was a number of trends indentified.

1) The report found that immigrants from wealthy countries tend to have high exit rates following a brief stay, whereas people from less wealthy countries or countries with political stress tend to leave after five or more years of residency in Canada.

2) Foreign-born Canadian emigrants from Taiwan had the highest rate of return to their country of origin, at 30 per cent, followed by emigrants from Hong Kong at 24 per cent.

3) The study noted that a time of political tensions in those regions was followed by a period of a "quiescence" that may have contributed to the higher exit rate.

The question that can be asked, are these trends having an impact on the number of "lost" votes that the Liberals have lost in the recent elections and is this part of their tradional base that they once had

[updated Thu Oct 29 12:18:00 -0400 2009]

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29 Oct 12:18

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RonaldODowd

Something To Bear In Mind.

Richard:
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of York;
And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.

Richard The Third Act 1, scene 1, 1–4

It's not enough to win a crucial battle. Merely achieving one's objective is never sufficient...what good comes from an eventual hollow victory which is won without a sound foundation. In the final analysis, you have to stand for something -- you have to build on the impressive accomplishments of those that came before you.

In modern times, the fatal flaw of lack of direction was perhaps best epitomized by U.S. President George H. W. Bush who was found wanting because he failed to provide voters with "the vision thing"...

Quite clearly, there is a hunger in the land for knowledge. People want to know where one is headed and why they should honour someone with their support and more importantly, their trust.

So far, no one has succeeded in shining the road up ahead with a beacon. Now would seem to be the time to chart that course.

[updated Sat Oct 31 22:16:47 -0400 2009]

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31 Oct 22:16

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RonaldODowd

Quebec Votes Today In Municipal Elections.

You know me. I like to take a stab at things -- to go with my gut feeling and see how it turns out!

So here it goes: my prediction is that Richard Bergeron will be elected Mayor of Montreal. The convention wisdom is that the group of three will come in all bunched up together. Au contraire, I'm suggesting that Bergeron will win by a comfortable margin with outgoing mayor Gérald Tremblay placing second and former PQ MNA Louise Harel not far behind Tremblay.

It's either steak or eggs tonight.

[updated Sun Nov 01 11:23:38 -0500 2009]

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01 Nov 11:23

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OustHarpo

Harper was too busy making attack ads and advertising the Conservative party to care about Canadians health. He missed the recession and now this. He is not paying attention because he is too focused on destroying his competition. It may work with his opponents, but it is a massive failure in running the country.

This is a national disgrace and a disaster. The Harper apologists are out trying to plug the dike by blaming the provinces and using the old "pay no attention to the man behind thae curtain" and move on.

Sorry, Harper has wasted our time and tax dollars elevating himself rather than promoting their H1N1 so-called plan.

[updated Sun Nov 01 19:46:49 -0500 2009]

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01 Nov 19:46

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syl (suspended)

Harper in his arrogance has tried to slip in another dirty deal while he is out of Ottawa:

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2009/11/hey-remember-that-weird-globe-story-about-pmo-and-navigator-limited.html#socialcomments

The one that claimed PMO was "cutting ties" to the company because its practices were allegedly the target of an investigation by the lobbying commissioner? The one that nobody -- least of all the commissioner, who is legally forbidden from commenting on any investigation, even one that doesn't exist -- could figure out whether or not it was true, and to which Navigator eventually issued a categorical, if carefully worded denial?

Turns out there may have been another good reason for the ostensible cooling off: Meet PMO's new deputy director of government communication, Dan Robertson, who was, until very very recently, a member of the team at Navigator Limited. I mean, recently enough that he's still listed on the Navigator webpage, although I suspect the link to his bio may go dead soon after this post goes up. UPDATE: It did -- in under two hours, no less. You can still read the Google cache here, or the extended version, courtesy of LinkedIn, here.

[updated Mon Nov 02 17:37:04 -0500 2009]

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02 Nov 17:37

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syl (suspended)

I wonder how these facts will paly out in the polls as the info seeps into peoples minds:
http://www.ottawasun.com/comment/columnists/greg_weston/2009/11/01/11593846-sun.html

Canada will be back in the black, Flaherty promised, without reducing employment insurance benefits or funding to the provinces for health care, social services or regional equalization.

Instead, the author of federal budgets lucky to get the page numbering right would have us believe that when the recession ends, the deficit will too.

Or not. A closer look at what is actually driving the government $55 billion into the red this year shows much of the shortfall is the result of permanent Conservative tax measures and other factors that won't simply vanish in an economic recovery. Consider:

* The first $6 billion of this year's red-ink extravaganza actually came from the Harper government's cutting taxes and over-spending last year even before the economic crash. It will still be there next year.

* Revenue from personal income taxes, the government's largest source of cash, is expected to drop by almost $9 billion this year. A large part of that lost loot is the result of personal tax cuts the Conservatives have promised not to touch, no matter what happens to the economy.

* Corporate taxes are also on track to nosedive $6 billion this year, much of it from various business incentives that don't depend on the economy.

* The increased costs of Employment Insurance program payouts are expected to reach $6 billion this year. Part of that is due to the soaring numbers of Canadians out of work since the recession hit, but $2.7 billion is from enhanced benefits and other enrichments to the program that will be politically difficult to cancel even in a recovery.

* The government estimates federal payments to other levels of government will rise more than $4 billion this year for health care, social programs, regional equalization and support for cities, all of which the Conservatives have promised not to cut in future.

* Despite the recession, the public service grew by 4.1% last year, and even more the year before. It helps to explain part of why government operating expenses are up a whopping $3.3 billion this year. Good luck cutting the bureaucracy down the road, no matter what happens to the economy.

* The cost of Old Age Security will rise by about $2 billion this year -- and each year for many more years to come -- as Boomers turn seniors.

RECORD DEFICITS

All of which adds up to record-setting deficits that are likely to be anything but temporary, and a soaring debt that will cost Canadians billions more in annual interest charges.

The finance department estimates the accumulation of annual deficits will drive last year's debt of $463 billion to $628 billion by 2014, an increase of about 35%.

At the end of that same period, the government predicts annual interest charges will have increased from about $31 billion to $42 billion, another $11 billion the treasury will have to borrow or find in budget cuts.

Unfortunately for taxpayers, even those dismal projections don't take into account a likely return to more traditional interest rates that would dramatically drive up the costs of servicing a mushrooming national debt -- over $5 billion more for every percentage point rise in interest rates.

Our kids will be thrilled.

[updated Mon Nov 02 20:21:21 -0500 2009]

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02 Nov 20:21

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syl (suspended)

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/720027--harper-congratulates-karzai-on-controversial-election-win

One illegitimate leader congratulates another similar leader.

[updated Mon Nov 02 22:35:59 -0500 2009]

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02 Nov 22:35

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Crown___anchor_thumb Crown & Anchor

The Canadian pandemic plan; which resulted after SARS, will have to be over-hauled.

I do sympathize with Canadians and all levels of governments. This is a real-time pandemic and the Chretien era plan does have some flaws; even the Liberals are opposing Chretien's plan.

Regards,

[updated Tue Nov 03 09:00:38 -0500 2009]

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03 Nov 09:00

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syl (suspended)

still no answers of substance from the useless Tories on swine flu vaccine availability:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/11/04/the-commons-questions-assurances-innuendo-and-a-man-named-donald/

[updated Wed Nov 04 21:34:32 -0500 2009]

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04 Nov 21:34

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syl (suspended)

It appears that Harper is once again outed as a hypocrite. In 1995 he went against his party and voted with the liberals when gun control legislation was first passed.

It also turns out that Peter Van Loan was witholding a usage report on the registry, until today, which shows the costs of managing it are way down and police inquiries are way up,over 4000 in the last year alone.

Don't you just love these honest and accountable Tories.

[updated Thu Nov 05 15:39:34 -0500 2009]

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05 Nov 15:39

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syl (suspended)

Maybe the pollsters are getting it wrong.

http://davidakin.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2009/11/5/4372877.html

This was an attempt by a tory MP in Manitoba to bring more glory to his party and he got his butt kicked. When asked if his party the reformatorts were managing the economy well he got an 88% rejection rate.

[updated Thu Nov 05 18:00:19 -0500 2009]

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05 Nov 18:00

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syl (suspended)

Here's a little history lesson from the Romans herpescrite should learn:

Wikipedia has a nice little summary of some events that happened during Nero's lamentable rule:

"Nero also built a new palace complex known as the Domus Aurea in an area cleared by the fire. This included lush artificial landscapes and a 30 meter statue of himself, the Colossus of Nero... To find the necessary funds for the reconstruction, tributes were imposed on the provinces of the empire. According to Tacitus, the population searched for a scapegoat and rumors held Nero responsible. To deflect blame, Nero targeted Christians. He ordered Christians to be thrown to dogs, while others were crucified and burned… In 64, Nero began singing in public … in order to improve his popularity."

Hmmm …

Now, its apparent the behaviour of PM Harper and his government match some of Nero's behaviours.

First, Nero is accused by Roman historians of inaction during a severe crisis. Then, during the crisis, legend has it that he played the fiddle while Rome burned. And then he is charged with trying to shift the blame from himself to others.

Well, yesterday, Harper and his government were also accused of inaction, and trying to shift the blame:

[updated Thu Nov 05 19:34:02 -0500 2009]

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05 Nov 19:34

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brusmit (Suspended)

We now find ourselves one year later, back at the same numbers that the Conservatives and the Liberals received for the Fortieth General Election on October 14th 2008.

The Conservatives under Mr. Harper had and still has 37.4% and the Liberals first under Mr. Dion and then under Mr. Ignatieff or mired at 26.8%, so I have to ask what has transpired other the past year that would cause the Liberal number to remain at such historic low levels and why have the Liberals not been able to make any head way.

In the past year, we have had a country wide recession, the rise of the Canadian dollar, a word wide recession, buy American, the soft wood lumber issue, deflation, the collapse of the lumber industry, a $56.0 billion dollar deficit, monetary issues, the banks being "bailed" out, the lack of liquidity within the banking sector, the collapse of the housing market, the $15.0 Billion dollar auto bail out.

We have seen rising unemployment, H1N1, the $30.0 Billion dollar stimulus package, $6.0 to $8.0 Billion dollars for the EI system, massive intervention by the BOC, massive job loss of manufacturing jobs in Ontario, the need to reform the pension system, HST, the massive drop in federal revenue, an Auditor General Report, the Budget Office attacking the econmoic numbers of the Government, the crash of the stock markets here and abroad and now throw in all the those many Conservative "scandals" that the Liberals have brought forward and the list goes on.

With all that going on and the Liberals are still at 26.8% so what is up, under most case the ruling party would have found themselves if they were lucky at the Liberals numbers.

The poll shows the Conservatives continue to lead the Liberals in the five traditional power base that the Liberals used to dominate and have in fact grown their vote in these areas over the past three weeks at the high of the H1N1.

1) Gender - women Conservatives 33.6% and the Liberals at 28.3%

2) Schooling - University Conservatives 33.4% and the Liberals 32.4%,

Schooling - College Conservatives 39.5% and the Liberals 24.0

3) Canadians born outside Canada - Conservatives 39.5% and for the Liberals 34.1%

4) Age under 25 - Conservatives 25.4%, the Liberals 24.9%

4) Age 25 / 45 - Conservatives 31.6%, and the Liberals 27.7%

5) Ontario - Conservatives 39.6% down from 41.4% in the previous poll but still above the Liberals who are sitting at 33.6% up from 31.2%

5) Toronto - Conservatives 41.1% up from 36.5% and still above the Liberals who are at 37.7% up slightly from 37.6%

The only area, that shows any growth in Ontario for the Liberals is in the Ottawa area, where the Conservative have dropped from 47.7% in the previous poll to 39.7% and the Liberals have seen their number increase to 36.7% in this poll from 29.4%

Hardly cause for the Liberals to be out cheering for an election and as a side bar the by-elections will soon be on us, it will be interesting to see how the numbers

[updated Thu Nov 05 20:16:18 -0500 2009]

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05 Nov 20:16

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brusmit (Suspended)

One might have thought that with some of the more pressing issues facing Canadians today, the Liberals and their media friends might have made some of the following as the news of day.

Issues such as unemployment reform, the deficit, the loss of jobs in the manufacturing sector, deflation, stimulus spending, H1N1, immigration, refugee, the recession, the high unemployment rate and a host of other issues might have made the list.

Of course, none of those were able to move the Liberal numbers off their historic lows under Mr. Ignatieff and with the Liberals now floundering about, looking for the next great scandal or scandals that will thrust them into power.

So here is the new current list of new Conservative "scandals", brought to you by the Liberals and the Liberal friendly media, hopefully they will be able to provide the momentum that the Liberals require to jump start their return to power as such news items in the past year have proven to be of extreme importance and are foremost in the minds of thoughtful Canadians.

After all without any public policy, new ideas, programs, direction and their vision for Canada, what is there for the Liberals to discuss with and engage Canadians with other than the next new great "scandal?"

1) Toronto Star: Cities stuck with bill for Tory 'propaganda', 11/05/2009.

2) Toronto Star: Raitt accused of expense abuse, 11/05/2009.

3) CTV: Tories accused of not playing fair with the torch, 11/05/2009.

4) National Post: Don Martin: Liberal torch paranoia flames up, 11/05/2009.

5) Globe and Mail: Aspiring public servants must reveal views on stimulus plan, 11/04/2009.

6) Globe and Mail: Olympic mittens and 1-800-Mike-Duffy, 11/04/2009.

7) Globe and Mail: Fund us or shut us down, budget watchdog says, 11/05/2009.

8) Globe and Mail: Auditor-General sounds alarm on immigration policy, 11/04/2009.

9) CTV: NDP claims 27 new Tory senators will cost $177M, The Canadian Press, Thursday Nov. 5, 2009 1:13 PM ET.

10) CTV: Minister grilled over release of a gun registry report, Date: Thursday Nov. 5, 2009 6:57 PM ET.

11) Toronto Star: Liberals want Harper to call audit, Published On Fri Nov 6 2009.

12) Toronto Star: Why were port authority board minutes altered? Published On Fri Nov 6 2009.

13) Globe and Mail: Stimulus money favours key Tories, Heather Scoffield, and Ottawa— the Canadian Press Published on Thursday, Nov. 05, 2009 8:11PM EST.

[updated Fri Nov 06 09:53:41 -0500 2009]

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06 Nov 09:53

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brusmit (Suspended)

Here are three current headlines, from three prominent news outlets all of whom are offering differing and contradicting views on the current H1N1 situation in Canada and you can add the CBC, CTV, Toronto Star, Globe and Mail to the list as well.

With each media outlet and their respective reporters and columnists, each adding their own view and political spin on the impact of H1N1 and the distribution (Federal), roll out (provincial) and the administration (by the Cities and regional health units), couple in the politics being played out in Ottawa by the opposition parties.

Is there any wonder that Canadians find themselves confused and increasing scared as each of the media outlets and opposition parties, each position themselves with self serving stories that may gain them an additional viewer or voter.

I really cannot understand their actions as these actions are on the surface some of the most debased practices that I have seen in a very long time and the underlying currents that we are seeing or putting Canadians at risk

We do not need any more headlines such as the ones we have seen from Mr. Rae and Ms Bennett, nor do we need the fear mongering from the Liberal benches and opposition about the roll out of the administration on the doses, all that has lead to is Canadians streaming the clinics not out of need but out of fear.

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National Post: H1N1 flu nears peak, experts suggest,
Tom Blackwell Published: Thursday, November 05, 2009.

"The H1N1 virus is spreading rapidly across the country, causing more illness than some doctors have seen in a flu season, but the pandemic has yet to seriously burden the country's hospitals and might be close to peaking, experts and government statistics suggest"
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Toronto Star: Flu pandemic is 'not slowing down'
November 6, 2009 Joanna Smith OTTAWA BUREAU.

"Anyone thinking of riding out the swine flu pandemic without getting a shot will have a long time to wait for the outbreak to pass says the head of the federal public health agency."
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Global TV: Brace for more H1N1 deaths, Canada's top doctor warns
Meagan Fitzpatrick, CanWest News Service: Thursday, November 5, 2009.

"Canadians should be prepared to hear about more swine flu deaths in the coming weeks as the H1N1 pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down, the country's top doctor warned Thursday."

"On the contrary, the spread of the H1N1 virus picked up speed over the past week, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. David Butler-Jones said at a news conference, and its prevalence is nearing levels that were seen at the peak of the first wave in June."
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[updated Fri Nov 06 09:57:12 -0500 2009]

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06 Nov 09:57

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syl (suspended)

I have posted suggestions on several websites and blogs for people to mobilize and demand the resignation of mike duffus from the senate for his outrageous remarks yesterday.

[updated Fri Nov 06 22:23:53 -0500 2009]

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06 Nov 22:23

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