Nanos National Poll - Canadians don't want a fall election; Majority preferred but minority expected (Completed September 11)

Clearly Canadians are telling the political parties they are not interested in an election anytime soon and they mean it this time.

This is also a message for the government. Continue to do the business of the country with no hanky panky. Thus far Harper is keeping his powder dry and that will only help him in future polling.

On the other hand Iggy has, I think, infuriated the electorate with his gunslinger approach when he announced in Sudbury, Mr. Harper your time is up. It showed arrogance and a lack of willingness to make parliament work. It also reinforced the Conservative meesage saying he was just in it for himself.

Layton of course has hurt himself when he virtually swallowed himself whole to find some issue to stop an election where polling shows his party would lose seats if an election were held today.

While nobody wants an election the country needs to move forward and there will be legislation that the NDP will not support i.e. approval of the HST for B.C. and Ontario, approval of the back taxes on the softwood lumber deal. Not sure how the government will handle these issues but they will need to tread cautiously when introducing legislation. Any action considered a poison pill by the electorate could cause their polling numbers to fall percipitiously.

[updated Thu Oct 01 06:40:33 EDT 2009]

I am proud to be among the 22.6 intelligent ones. :-)
I want an election every day until Harper is gone. I want our country to progress; not regress as it has and always will under Harper.
Minority governments are ineffective. They can't function. Thank heavens we never have one. We are governed by 154+ PMs , either a majority or coalition. It seems that for the next while we will have a coalition of Conservatives and NDPs.
The size of the coalition or majority doesn't matter. We can have as good a government with 155 as we can with 208.

Coalitions, tho, inefficient, are more democratic. I would forfeit efficiency for democracy.

We need to be careful in making a judgement on what is revealed by the responses to these types of questions. Rather than responding to the exact question those polled responses reflect the general party affiliation.
To try to explain more clearly what I mean I'll use an example for a previous poll. What asked who would handle the environment better, the results were 26% for Harper and only 4 or 6 for May. That's more an indication or Harper's and May's political standing rather than their environmental concern. Does anyone really believe that Harper would be better for the environment that May? It the same with questions about skills.

[updated Thu Oct 01 09:18:27 EDT 2009]

Those who say we need an election at this time find little support BUT those who want a majority government find a great deal of support. Seems there is a little gulf between our needs and our wants but has this not been true for the last couple of elections? Somehow, there has been something that has "stuck in our craw" blocking the current government from attaining the "Holy Grail" of a majority. Unfortunately, the major opposition has not fielded another Trudeau, of finger fame, nor another street fighter like Chretien. Mr. Dithers and that deaf and blind green chap decimated the party with the results of the implosion lingering on much to the political opportunity of the current government that has managed to "grow" under those conditions. That appears to be the reality for the Government of Canada at the moment. Seems we, as the electorate are in or will be in the position of choosing the least worst rather than choosing the best.

European minority governments with listening skills, genuine co-operation and compromise appeared to have "worked" better than the Canadian counterpart we have seen. Possibly the Canadian electorate hoped for the same model here, possibly remembering Pearson, but it did not happen and we yearn for the stable majorities of the past but it did not happen either. Is something "still stuck in our craw" ????? I am inclined to think so. I suggest the current poll is measuring the "exasperation level" of the Canadian electorate and the "undecided" category may possibly grow and will move like quick silver if one of the major parties do not "capture / appeal" to that category of voter.

Canadian politics presents a moving target and it is a little more difficult to score a bullseye. Harper certainly does not sit still.

[updated Thu Oct 01 11:21:00 EDT 2009]

Canadians prefer majority governments? Maybe we should ask them what was the last year a majority government was elected by a majority of Canadians. Its 1984 for federal parliament, and 1937 for provincial . The more there are participants in an election, the fewer voters the winner needs to represent.

Representation for all!

http://www.fairvote.ca/en/Join

[updated Thu Oct 01 11:58:14 EDT 2009]

The Medical Diagnosis Is Finally In.

The Pension Democrats: present in their seats but brain dead...

[updated Thu Oct 01 18:00:09 EDT 2009]

The Silence Is Deafening.

You'll notice that Conservatives are quite good at following orders -- those that don't stick with the program soon discover what it's like to be a "former" election candidate...

What you're not seeing, beginning today, is positive proof of this Prime Minister's strategic thinking about the next election. Clearly, the decision has been taken to engineer the government's own defeat. What was wrong was the timetable. Harper has his poison pill at the ready and will serve it up to Jack at the appropriate moment. (Can't help but wonder if the PMO has returned Jack's Chief of Staff's phone calls yet!)

Rather indicative wouldn't you say? Remember, the word has gone out to stand back and enjoy the train wreck. Conservatives mistakenly believe that Liberals are doing it to themselves -- and they are keen to egg it on from behind the scenes. Harper wants his people to dummy up while this moment of serendipity unfolds.

But I've got news for all those silently crowing Conservatives. No question, we're down but we're far from out. Watch for the change in trajectory because it's coming as sure as day follows night. We may be in our hour of discontent but this too shall pass.

Stay sharp Conservatives and keep your ears to the wind. They'll be a few surprises from us for you yet. Stay tuned for future developments. Same time, same channel.

[updated Thu Oct 01 22:14:11 EDT 2009]

Conservatives: Give Senator Don Plett A Call!

Once you get over the shock of reading today's paper, ask Don what he thinks. For those of you who missed it, here it is in part:

Winnipeg Free Press
Poll shows big lead for Conservatives
Liberal support growing, could see shift in seats here

By: Aldo Santin

The federal Liberals still have a higher level of support in Manitoba than during the last election -- despite less impressive results in other parts of Canada.

A new poll by Probe Research found the Conservatives hold a commanding 12 percentage point lead over the Liberals in the province: 47 to 25 per cent. However, Liberal support is considerably higher than the 19 per cent the party received in the October 2008 election, while support for the Conservatives is essentially the same.

In Winnipeg, Liberal support is up to 30 per cent -- compared to 23 per cent in the 2008 election -- while Conservative support is down from 43 to 39 per cent.

"If the Liberals can hold onto this kind of support until the next election, some of the seats the Conservatives took a year ago might be at risk," said Probe president Scott MacKay.

"The Liberals only have one seat in Manitoba now, Anita Neville in Winnipeg South Centre, and she could be safe with this level of support, but those seats that the Conservatives took from the Liberals a year ago -- Rod Bruinooge (in Winnipeg South) and Shelley Glover (St. Boniface) -- might be taken back."

MacKay said that the Liberals also might be able to attract a star candidate to challenge Joy Smith in Kildonan-St. Paul.

[updated Fri Oct 02 11:13:20 EDT 2009]

Wait until everyone starts paying the Harper Sales Tax. Harpo's numbers are going to drop like a stone. Especially here in BC. Harper will pay for his tax hike on Canadians. It is a big topic of discussion out here in BC and Harpo is getting the blame he deserves for strog-arming (bribing) the provinces into it.

[updated Fri Oct 02 12:18:43 EDT 2009]

Nik, concerning the Fall Election Question:

As you know voter turnout for 2008 was less than 60%.

I would have liked to have seen a breakdown of the Fall Election Question by voters who actually voted in 2008 versus those who did not vote in 2008.

I guess that I'm assuming that most no-show voters, when polled, would answer "do not want fall election" primarily because, once again, they can't be bothered. So who cares what they think since they are probably not going to vote anyway.

Maybe next time?

[updated Fri Oct 02 17:14:30 EDT 2009]

Thanks Jack!

I want to thank Jack and other Pension Democrats for the generous early Christmas present they've given to Liberals -- they of all people recognize the fragile nature of our economy and have therefore "deftly" moved to protect their own personal financial interests.

It's a good thing that the Conscience of Canada doesn't have a direct line to Woodsworth, Coldwell, Douglas, Lewis et al. I suspect the conversation would not go "well". Principles are a wonderful thing until you flush them down the old bowl in the name of collective self-interest...

This brings us to the "cranky" voters as Tom as described them. I can't help but wonder why: you've got this Prime Minister who pines for an election so he can ram home his agenda for a solid four years if the distracted masses can be sufficiently hoodwinked; This is the same man whose definition of making a minority Parliament work means everyone else caving so he can get his way on each and every bill put before the House. Funny how people want MPs to work together but conveniently forget, or ignore, that it's generally my way or the highway from the get go.

Wake up Canada. If you want a majority government, at least have the guts to elect one. Put an end to the farce of successive minority parliaments where winning by default is the manta of this government.

Clearly you have two choices ahead of you: you can put your faith in Stephen Harper and enjoy much more of the same -- but in ever increasing INTENSITY! Was that good for you?

Or, you can stick to your allegedly progressive principles and line up behind a solid alternative. That brings us to Michael. The man is far from perfect, just like the rest of us. However, Michael is intelligent, thoughtful, generous of character and fundamentally a stand-up guy. Does he strike you as the type of person who could go to bat for you over the next four years? Will his Canada generally be a good fit with your Canada? If the Canadian way is a middle-of-the-road approach, only you can ratify that in the next campaign. If you're in the mood to hug the progressive center, now is the time to line up behind the Liberals.

It's going to take strategic voting to send this Prime Minister back to Calgary. There is no other choice -- without it, the job can't be done. So make a decision and then head to the polls, when we finally have an opportunity, and speak in one voice for the kind of Canada I believe most of us cherish.

In short, voting for the largely discredited Pension Democrats gets you a sure thing: at minimum, several more years of Stephen Harper. Voting Green will dilute the progressive vote allowing Conservatives a clear path to victory in many crucial seats.

It's up to you now. So go out there and bring much needed change to Canada.

[updated Sat Oct 03 19:18:42 EDT 2009]

Election not important to me, The issues are China

Harper go straight to India and bypass China

We have to get China out of the Oil Sands and Canadian Resource companies, the reason this happened was because of the much hated Bombardier, who has been a parasite on the Canadian government for years.

We must not allow Chinese students into Canadian Universities, they have their own use them, It is good news to day to hear they are not enrolling SFU is the worst offender. Should not be here in the place taking space of Canadian students. Whoever allowed this to happen must be punished, I suspect Chretien and Trudeau are responsible including Mulroney

[updated Wed Oct 07 00:19:11 EDT 2009]

The Two Most Well Massaged Words In The English Language: Conservative MAJORITY.

I've got to hand it to this Prime Minister. The man is one clever operator. Just look at the EKOS poll done for the CBC which gives the Conservatives a fourteen point lead -- makes me wonder if the PM honed his technique in Stockholm...

I hope Stephen Harper is a fish lover. After all, no one in memory has ever been better at serving up red herrings to a gullible public.

A case in point (from The Star):

OTTAWA–The Conservative government was accused of orchestrating an "extraordinary" cover-up after public hearings into alleged torture of Afghan detainees resumed briefly Wednesday.

Justice department lawyers have moved to block the probe into complaints about military police conduct in Afghanistan by throwing a national security blanket over the inquiry.

"It is extraordinary to me that there has been such a determination on the part of the government to cover up evidence and shut down witnesses and to prevent people from coming forward who would have something to say," Liberal MP Bob Rae told reporters Wednesday.

Rae (Toronto Centre) said there are serious allegations of torture at Afghan prisons and questions surrounding circumstances in which prisoners were transferred from Canadian to Afghan control.

"I don't believe that it is in the national interest for Canada to be covering up this information," he said.

Peter Tinsley, the military police complaints commissioner, postponed the hearings for a week while lawyers squabble over the breadth of the investigation into what military police in Kandahar knew about the possible abuse of prisoners handed over to Afghan authorities.

---------

It is me or is it passing strange that the commissioner's mandate is not being renewed. Surely, it's also a coincidence that Tinsley will not be remaining as a member, even though he allegedly requested it himself. Again, must simply be "happenstance"...

I don't know about you but I find national security to be a highly convenient cloak. This strikes me as painting with overly broad strokes.

On to the next gem.

Conservative surrogates have been quite busy lately. This is how the CBC reported the latest salvo against a longstanding CPC target:

Two writers appeared before the justice committee on Monday, repeating their call for a repeal of a controversial section of the Human Rights Act, and asking for a probe into the Canadian Human Rights Commission.

Ezra Levant and Mark Steyn are also calling for the elimination of Section 13 of the Canadian Human Rights Act, which allows the commission to investigate allegations of hate speech.

"I think a very practical, doable thing for this committee and for Parliament would be to repeal Section 13 of the Human Rights Act altogether, to leave any hate speech prosecutions to the Criminal Code with its proper checks and balances, and frankly, to bring in a forensic audit to the Human Rights Commission to examine the allegations that I have made," Levant told the commission.

Levant is alleging that employees of the commission belong to neo-Nazi organizations, an accusation he made in July in a National Post column.

Some committee members, like New Democrat MP Joe Comartin, seemed incredulous at the accusation.

"I think I like everybody sitting at this table are at some disadvantage, Mr. Levant and Mr. Steyn, in terms of the accusations that you're making against members of the commission and their staff."

Levant offered to give MPs documents to back his accusations and come back to testify once they had read them.

Levant was subject of a complaint to the Alberta Human Rights Commission under the act for reprinting the provocative Danish Muhammad cartoons in his magazine in 2006. He published the controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad in the now defunct Western Standard, arguing that they were "the central fact in the largest news story of the month."

A complaint was launched by the Canadian Islamic Congress against Steyn for an article he wrote titled "The Future Belongs to Islam" and posted on the magazine's website in October 2006.

The article, an excerpt of a book authored by Steyn, talks about Islam being a threat to North American institutions and values. It used statistics to show higher birth rates plus immigration mean Muslims will outnumber followers of other religions in Western Europe.

Both complaints were eventually dismissed.

---------

This entire episode troubles me. I'm not a fan of hate speech. I want as many tools in the drawer as possible to deal with it. That is precisely why I do not agree with Levant and Steyn's approach.

Both of these files strike me as somewhat symptomatic of Conservative group think. I don't like that mindset or mentality. To my mind, what we're seeing is warning bells and caution flags in spades. Something to seriously think about...

[updated Thu Oct 08 17:46:54 EDT 2009]

Thank God For The Queen...

Constitutional scholars rejoice! The debate is raging as to who is actually Canada's Head of State. The booming PMO reminds us that the role is vested in the monarch with most of its powers devolved to her representative, the Governor-General.

However, most recent GGs had another idea -- which seems to come out of actually doing the job. Governor Generals, past and present consider themselves as the de facto head of state.

Sorry boys and girls but this isn't horseshoes. Essentially, the PMO has it right but that doesn't mean that things should stay as they are. Stephen Harper gets to choose the Governor-General, not the Queen. She quite properly follows the advice of her prime minister.

Perhaps now is the time to move to a ceremonial president. Cut the last formal link with Great Britain and let Michaëlle Jean actually be Michaëlle! The president would be named by the PM but at least it would still take two to tango.

I'm open to compromise in true Canadian fashion but one thing's for sure -- count me out on the idea of combining the powers of head of state with that of head of government. Anything short of that is the way to go just so long as I never hear the most dreaded words in the Canadian lexicon: "Good Day, President Harper!"

[updated Sat Oct 10 12:05:39 EDT 2009]

A Harper Thanksgiving?

I know this is last minute and all but you know how the holidays are for spending quality time with the people who are most important to us.

To my mind, these days that means that Stephen and Laureen should be thinking about inviting -- wait for it, Jack and Olivia!

Now can't you just picture that Polaroid moment around the suitably roasted bird...talk about two fish out of water but necessity is in fact the mother of (political) invention. I'd imagine things should go swimmingly now that Jack has abruptly and surprisingly started doing laps against the current.

The only dicey part may come when it's time to take on the turkey. Here's a helpful hint that should smooth things over: don't let the Prime Minister do the carving...

[updated Sat Oct 10 22:33:42 EDT 2009]

No October 2 poll this month? You had polls out on September 2, and August 2 - I was hoping they'd be a monthly occurence.

I find it useful to contrast your results with those of EKOS - the polling company whose methodology differs most greatly from yours. They have a tendency to overstate Green support, and I'm curious to know where that support goes in your polls. I suspect it drifts back to the Liberals (like in the Ipsos polls), but I can be sure until we see new data.

[updated Thu Oct 15 15:48:44 EDT 2009]

Those Pesky Conservative Symbols...

I wonder if this Prime Minister is about to send me a cheque -- after all, it seems everyone else is getting one resplendent in those all too familiar Conservative colours. What's the topper you keep asking yourselves. What will the PM and the Conservative Party come up with next to take this to a new level?

Here's an idea based on personal experience: there I was at the airport when what did I suddenly spot on the runway -- a CanJet Airlines plane. Perhaps I was imagining things but I couldn't help but feel that the jet looked awfully familiar.

Now here's what you should do. Buy out the majority shareholder. That should give you something else to endlessly crow about. Next thing you know, I might be plunking down my brains on Conservative Hot Air!

[updated Thu Oct 15 17:24:04 EDT 2009]

Harper caves big time to opposition pressure.

Pandora's Box is about to be opened. Harper and MacKay's lies can't be kept from the public anymore, by there smears and legal maneuvres. They thought they could hide behind National security, now it wil hit the fan. Bye bye majority numbers.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/704651

[updated Fri Oct 16 19:33:41 EDT 2009]

Conservatives’ Blue Cheques Bounce Badly
by Richard Cléroux

"It was just like in the old Sponsorship Scandal days – bad cheques from politicians.
Except this time it was the Conservatives who got caught making legitimate government grant announcements using big partisan Conservative Party cheques. "

"Keddy’s excuse was that he had not noticed the logo.

Trouble was that the photo taken at the presentation ceremony shows his right hand right next to the Conservative logo.

He had only to look down at the back of his hand, and he would have seen the logo.

The Prime Minister’s spokesperson Dimitri Soudas tried to pass the whole thing off as “an isolated incident.”

But how do you pass off 181 “isolated incidents” by 47 different MPs and cabinet ministers?

In politics it’s always better to know the facts before opening your mouth. "

That's how its going down in Quebec. They are on to Harper's lies. Bye bye majority numbers after this scandal.

[updated Fri Oct 16 19:40:23 EDT 2009]

The Truth about Canada is buried in Harper lies
By Grand Chief Morris J. Swan Shannacappo

"If a prominent United States politician told a lie like the one Stephen Harper voiced at the G20 Summit, late night television show hosts such David Letterman and Conan O'Brien would be milking it for giggles.

On Sept. 24, in front of an international audience, our Prime Minister made comments that rival the most celebrated and preposterous lies of Nixon and Clinton. Yet, his comments went almost unnoticed outside of the Aboriginal media.

"We also have no history of colonialism," Harper said following the G20 Summit.

"What?" I mean "WHAT!!!!!!"

Next, he is going to tell us that human babies really are delivered by storks. And nobody is going to call him on it either. Not the official opposition. Not pundits in the mainstream media.

When Joe Clark walked into a bayonet 30 years ago when he was prime minister, the media went crazy, but Harper tells the whopper of all time, and it gets ignored.

No history of colonialism! Come on. Canada is the child created when French colonialism mated with English colonialism. How can a birth child claim there is no historical connection to either parent?

The colonial influence of the English and French didn't end with Canadian Confederation. Seventy-five year later was still part of the British Empire and even today God Save the Queen is sung at some events.

For many, many decades Canada has continued the colonial thinking and ambitions that had been nourished for so long by its British and French parents: 141 years after Confederation Canada was finally able to put one of the worst sins of its colonial mindset into perspective with the following statement: "The Government of Canada sincerely apologizes and asks the forgiveness of the Aboriginal peoples of this country for failing them so profoundly."

This quote is taken from the Residential School Survivors apology, read to the Canadian Parliament on June, 11, 2008, by - you guessed it - Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He should have listened to himself. The big time media and our so-called ever-vigilant Parliamentary Opposition should have also remembered these words and corrected Harper after he fibbed on the world stage.
When Richard Nixon told Americans "I am not a crook" and when Bill Clinton said I did not have sexual relations with that woman (Monica Lewinsky) they were mocked for years by the media and stand-up comics. More recently, when Hillary Clinton was running against Barrack Obama for the Democratic nomination, she told about ducking bullets when visiting Bosnia in the 1990s. There was a trace of truth, but the incident was greatly exaggerated by Ms. Clinton. A lot of people made fun of her in the weeks afterward.

Our Prime Minister's claims of Canada having a history of zero colonialism are as far-fetched as any of the comments listed above by United States politicians.
Aboriginal Affairs Minister Chuck Strahl has since tried to defend, or explain the Prime Minister's remarks by saying that Harper meant that Canada, as a country, had never tried to colonize other parts of the world. He also acknowledged that Canada had done some terrible things to Indigenous peoples and the Residential School apology was sincere.

However, even in this regard Canada's moral purity can be disputed. Canada didn't really become a world power of any significance until after the First World War and any part of the world that could be colonized already had been.

By the time Canada grew up, the disease of nation-based colonialism had mutated into corporate colonialism. Canada and its corporations have been part of corporate colonialism and Indigenous people have suffered as a result. The human and labour rights record of some of the corporations operating in the developing world is terrible.

I suspect the Prime Minister was deliberately trying to sell the rest of the world a rosy picture of Canada, because the Canadian government wants to hide its dark side from other countries. Canada's treatment of First Nations people is its Achilles heel.

Run For Human Rights 2 is an effort to let the United States and the world know the truth about Canada's approach to First Nations' issues. Runners were recently taken off the road after debris was thrown on them by passing motorists in Wisconsin, but the run will resume this fall with older runners so that young people will not be at risk.

In the long run, the absurdity of Canada's claims on colonialism will be an asset to people trying to promote the truth."

[updated Fri Oct 16 19:43:14 EDT 2009]

Sleazy, Bush style, Harper cover-up about to end.

OTTAWA–When allegations that battlefield detainees were facing torture in Afghan prisons first erupted, Prime Minister Stephen Harper dismissed them as Taliban lies and terrorist propaganda.

But the Canadian government had been warned by one of its most senior diplomats in Kandahar a full year before, in May 2006, of "serious, imminent and alarming" evidence of prisoner abuse.

Exactly what Richard Colvin found when he started looking into the handling of Afghan detainees is not yet public, and might never see the light of day if government lawyers have their way.

Government lawyers are trying to block Colvin from testifying at the hearings on the grounds that any information he has could breach national security. "Most, if not all, other witnesses" could be barred for the same reasons, commission chairman Peter Tinsley said in a written ruling Wednesday.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/afghanmission/article/710552--ottawa-had-early-warning-of-torture-in-afghan-jails

Bye bye majority numbers when this hits the fan. These lies are just too big and important for harper to minimize.

[updated Fri Oct 16 19:47:48 EDT 2009]

Just as Harper makes inroads in Quebec, he pulls this CRAP. Does he want a majority or does he like shooting himself in the foot.

Steven Chase and Rhéal Séguin

Ottawa and Quebec — From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Oct. 16, 2009

In a move that will provoke a constitutional showdown with Quebec, the Harper government is asking the Supreme Court to rule on whether Ottawa has the power to create a national securities regulator.

Last night, Quebec, which opposes a countrywide watchdog as an encroachment on its turf, said it “has not budged one iota” from this view and is ready for a fight.

[updated Fri Oct 16 22:54:44 EDT 2009]

If anyone knows the stench of propaganda it would be MacKay and Harper:

Ottawa

Published on Friday, Oct. 16, 2009 7:24PM EDT

Last updated on Friday, Oct. 16, 2009 7:27PM EDT

Defence Minister Peter MacKay Friday dismissed allegations that the Canadian military paid insurgents in Afghanistan not to attack them as nothing more than “Taliban propaganda.”

One Western military source told of payments made by Canadian soldiers stationed in the violent southern province of Kandahar, while another officer spoke of similar practices by the German army in northern Kunduz. Agence France-Presse

[updated Fri Oct 16 22:57:11 EDT 2009]

Think Laskin, Think Alberta Gambit.

Apologies ahead of time to those who are about to read this post -- you might want to make an appointment with your doctor as soon as the onset of MEGO (my eyes glaze over) is detected! I was sorely tempted to headline this piece a snoring bore for lawyers but hey, the profession already has enough problems.

I want to take a stab at the federal reference to the Supreme Court of Canada on Ottawa's right to set up a national securities regulator. Thus far, the Harper government has pitched it, at least politically, as an ad hoc opt-in arrangement with framework pending.

Nevertheless, several provinces are madder than wet hens, most notably Alberta, Manitoba and for even more reasons Quebec.

Let's tackle the dry legal stuff first: the federal government seems to be invoking much of the legal arguments originally made by Bora Laskin on the Supreme Court. It's not too wild a stretch of the imagination to extend the notion further by maintaining that under section 91(2) of the Constitution Act 1867, the Commerce and Trade Power not only regulates inter-provincial trade but that a logical extension would allow Ottawa to also level the playing field as regards securities regulation. Let's call it the anti-patchwork theory. Another approach might be to suggest that Section 121 could also apply to quasi-trade barriers such as a "panoply" of provincial regulators.

Reinforcing Canada's economic union may turn out to be the order of the day at the Supreme Court.

OK folks, the nightmare's over now. Let's get back to the down and dirty, the political:
this Prime Minister appears to be playing another round of advanced chess. He's moving to control the board and his first advance has led to sacrifice in the form of an Alberta gambit. Stephen Harper knows that when this all shakes out back home that his political losses will be on the margins. They can howl in Edmonton but at the same time, fortress Alberta will continue to deliver when the writ drops.

Then there's the potential big upside -- a smiling and content Dalton McGuinty! Here's a hint. You'll only need one guess as to where the national regulator is going to be based. The PM will be seen as strengthening Ontario's clout in the federation, hardly something that is bound to cost him votes in that province. Au contraire, there can be no question that Harper is looking to engineer the big seat payoff in the land of Liberals.

I better get my little grey cells stimulated. I don't plan on being outclassed by Harper but I have to admit that right now, this Prime Minister is at least two moves ahead of me.

[updated Sun Oct 18 00:41:08 EDT 2009]

A Year Of Cognitive Dissonance.

Welcome to Harper Day! You remember it well -- that's when the voting public returned this government with an increased minority. As a democrat, I bemoaned that fact but accepted the political will of the Canadian people. (The actual anniversary was last Wednesday.)

Then came the months of November and December when history was almost made but for the fact of the prorogation of Parliament by the Governor-General. No one needs to be reminded how Conservative support spiked upward during the so-called "coalition crisis".

We're seeing that again now: Ekos has the Conservative lead at fifteen points! But this Prime Minister isn't smiling. As a strategist, Harper is smart enough to know both last fall and now that voter expression is nothing more than an example of cognitive dissonance.

Think about it for a moment -- the voters want this Parliament to "work" but what does that really mean in the cruel world of real politik? It means much more of the same. Political stagnation on issues where the government is determined to hang tough (such as the environment) and ramrodding bills through the House on other matters with single opposition party support.

To my mind, that is the key element of cognitive dissonance. Another thing that should have this Prime Minister worried is how his high polling numbers will eventually translate when we finally get to an election. There is no way in hell that the Conservatives can hold a ten to fifteen point lead and they bloody well know it! Once we've gone to the polls, their support is likely to drop in the first two weeks of the campaign. Harper has to solidify the base while holding the middle.

In the final analysis, it will boil down to this: do you feel comfortable with Stephen Harper in office for potentially another four to five years? That will be the ballot question. The polls in tandem are saying "Yes!". I'm suggesting that when push comes to shove that the eventual answer will be "No".

[updated Sun Oct 18 12:20:43 EDT 2009]

Michael,

Election or no election, I'm looking for the platform. Does any reasonable person really think that a plank representing traditional Liberal values can be credibly conveyed and implemented by this government?!

That approach will not pass the smell test with voters. Conservatives aren't Liberals by any stretch of the imagination. That just isn't on as a political option. For this Prime Minister to pretend that he is the perfect representation of centrist Canadian valves is more than laughable.

The Emperor may be wearing new clothes (as opposed to being stark naked on the environment and deficit reduction -- not to mention shovels in the ground!) but Harper may be able to fool some people much of the time but not most people half of the time.

Sooner or later, the PM will revert back from the mean: toward traditional economic conservatism. Harper knows it, so does the base and the rest of us should have clued in by now.

Liberals need to remember what it means to act as Liberals. Get it out there, fully costed and demonstrate to Canadians what we're made of. Selling Liberal ideas is not that difficult. Finding the political will to start rolling it out is what's missing.

As a journalist, you became renowned on British television as a man with a message. You knew how to deliver it and people took notice. That Michael Ignatieff is STILL with us today. Here's hoping Canadians will be seeing a lot more of him in the immediate future.

Let Michael be Michael!

[updated Sun Oct 18 12:48:52 EDT 2009]

Bruce Cheadle

Ottawa — The Canadian Press

Tories spent $108,000 on one-hour event Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks about the Canadian government's progress in implementing Economic Action Plan Initiatives, at a town-hall meeting Thursday in Cambridge, Ont.

Federal government spent big to stage June town hall where Harper delivered economic update on efforts to help lift country out of recession

Wheels are coming off the contard express.

OTTAWA - A Montreal firm landed a federal stimulus contract while a top Tory organizer and senator was on the payroll, The Canadian Press has learned.

Senator Leo Housakos's employer, BPR Inc., was part of a consortium that won a $1.4-million engineering contract to study the future of Montreal's aging Champlain Bridge.

http://www.macleans.ca/canada/wire/article.jsp?content=n165209328

Did the 100K include Duffy's feedbag or just Tubby's?

[updated Sun Oct 18 16:40:10 EDT 2009]

canadians do not want China investors in Canada either!

[updated Sun Oct 18 20:50:19 EDT 2009]

Finally, the MSM is on to Harper's lies and deceptions big time. Trash sinks to the bottom eventually. And Canadians will punish him for making fools of them.

Sunday, October 18, 2009 8:10 PM

Law of small numbers
Andrew Steele

For instance, take the technical description for the ridiculous claim Stephen Harper made at the Toronto Reference Library last week.

Under fire for shoveling stimulus money at a significantly higher rate into Conservative-held ridings, particularly those of cabinet ministers, the Prime Minister looked back over his recent travels and declared it simply wasn't true.

“I have been on the road the last week. I've done four major announcements – three were not in Conservative ridings,” he said.

Wow. According to the research conducted by the Prime Minister, 75 per cent of projects he announced in the last week were not in Conservative ridings. Clearly, the opposition is just plain wrong. If anything, it's the Conservative ridings that are getting screwed.

In logic, this would be called a hasty generalization. Some other fun names I might have written if an undergrad tried to pull this in a paper include the fallacy of insufficient statistics, fallacy of insufficient sample, fallacy of the lonely fact, generalization from the particular, leaping to a conclusion, hasty induction, law of small numbers, unrepresentative sample, and - for fans of the Latin - secundum quid.

Hasty generalization is "the fallacy of examining just one or very few examples or studying a single case, and generalizing that to be representative of the whole class of objects or phenomena."

And the Prime Minister didn't just stop there.

Hasty generalization can be unconscious and innocent. When it is done consciously and with the malicious intention of excluding cases to mask the true nature of a phenomena, it is the fallacy of exclusion and can be a particularly nasty form of selection bias.

But the Conservative response consists exclusively of three types of falacies:

1. Ad hominem attacks (attacking the man saying the charge, not the charge itself). An example would be Transport Minister John Baird's empty retort that the Liberals are "up to political mischief."

2. Hasty generalizations. The best example is the Conservative response on the day Mr. Kennedy issued his report, in which they countered that the single example of the site where the announcement took place was not scheduled to begin immediately. Partially rebutting a single element of a thousand point charge does not address the charge.

3. Fallacies of exclusion. The Prime Minister's argument this week stands out as the best example of that.

Basically, in his statement, the Prime Minister was knowingly attempting to have the listener draw a false conclusion by presenting a purposely-crafted and biased data set as representative of the entire set.

In doing so, he was taking Canadians for fools.

Considering the recent cheque logo shenanegans and the confirmation from a nominated CPC candidate that stimulus follows party, the Prime Minister needs to address this charge four-square or risk a major scandal that will not only injure his reputation, but risk the recovery by possibly slowing the pace of project funding.

On the policy side, remaining funds should simply be flowed to municipalities to distribute as needed. This is by far the fastest, and most transparent, way to launch infrastructure quickly.

Rhetorically, the Conservatives have a major advantage in rebuttal. They are the government and control the actual list of where contracts went. Simply releasing the full list should address the charge.

Of course, for that to happen, two other things must be true:

1. They must actually have such a list. (Judging from Parliamentary Budget Officer's report into the "uneven," "inconsistent" and "missing" record keeping in the multi-billion dollar stimulus spend, it is actually possible the government does not know where the money went.)

2. They must be spending the money fairly and wisely, distributing it efficiently and relatively evenly across Canada.

Don't hold your breath.

I am beginning to suspect we will only see the full list of projects in the appendix of an Auditor-General's report years from now, if ever.

[updated Sun Oct 18 21:05:52 EDT 2009]

Climate Change Act.

Poor Jack. He's out in lala land if he thinks that this government will vote for the bill on Wednesday. However, I suspect it will have Liberal and Bloc support. Sure, it can get through the Senate but what happens then?

If it remains the government's prerogative as to which legislation enacted by Parliament is then sent to the Governor-General for signature (royal assent), then "Houston, we have a problem"!

Copenhagen is coming up. They already know ahead of time that the Canadian position will be nothing short of a farce. How they can actually show up with a straight face is beyond me. I don't suppose they actually give an Academy Award for "environment" ministers???

[updated Mon Oct 19 10:45:23 EDT 2009]

WOW! The CPC is really empty on these recent three scandals in a row. The only talking points that are circulating are:

This is really nothing

The liberals did worse

and

Is that all you've got Liberals.

Well it is ticking off even conservatives. Even Peter Coleman from Harper's beloved NCC is pissed with him. Serious problem here for the CPC. Harper's numbers will definitely suffer for this, maybe worse.

[updated Mon Oct 19 22:03:42 EDT 2009]

Thank You, Prime Minister.

I want to thank our Prime Minister for taking the time to place a phone call to Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Words fail me to express my appreciation for his reading the riot act to Karzai.

Harper's conduct has done our soldiers proud and increased the lustre surrounding the memory of our fallen soldiers, diplomat and aid workers.

We may have our political differences but again, thank you for stepping up on behalf of Canadians.

I haven't changed my position on the war in Afghanistan. I can only hope that eventually the PM comes around to my view. Afghanistan is another Viet Nam waiting to happen. Just ask potential "one-term" à la Johnson President Barack Obama.

[updated Mon Oct 19 23:26:49 EDT 2009]

A Spring Election?

The defining moment of this Parliament is likely to come this spring when the budget is tabled. The Athletes' and Olympics Party...oh sorry, what was I thinking -- ah, ah, I mean the Conservatives, will still be comfortably ensconced in a warm glow (serves them right for not supporting climate change legislation) rapt with overconfidence and smug satisfaction. (In other words, no different then they are now.)

Jack should be all fired up over HST and so will the Bloc, replete with its sovereignist hand out for federalist cash.

Can't you just feel those little wheels spinning in the Prime Minister's brain. Let me guess? Harper has it already figured out how the Liberals will cave into pressure and support the budget with their collective tails securely fastened to their desks.

All I can say is: think again, brother! Budget time is going to be crunch time for this government. We'll vote him up or down and may the chips fall where they may.

Call me Thatcher on this one. You can turn if you want to but the lady isn't for turning and quite frankly, neither am I. Michael has some serious thinking to do between now and then but I'm confident he won't let me down. The Harper itch has proven itself to be a lot harder to scratch than originally anticipated but sooner, or later, Michael is bound to get the hang of it.

[updated Tue Oct 20 22:21:57 EDT 2009]

A Message For The Prime Minister.

You might want to consider getting the Health Minister to update Canadians on the status of Peramivir. For the benefit of readers, the CBS Evening News can take it from here:

Peramivir is an antiviral drug like Tamiflu and Relenza. But unlike those drugs, it's being specifically studied as an intravenous treatment for critically ill patients. Human clinical trials in the U.S. and Japan have called Peramivir safe and effective.

[...]

But as more patients die in intensive care, doctors want the FDA to speed up the delivery of emergency anti viral drugs. The current process for "compassionate use" takes at least four hours of paperwork time from doctors trying to treat sick patients.

The FDA has said it will consider what's called an EUA, or Emergency Use Authorization, for Peramivir, allowing the government to stockpile the drug and reduce the most paperwork.

[updated Wed Oct 21 11:37:59 EDT 2009]

To Whom this may concern; I live in the traditional Liberal riding of Cuzner, for years we have been trying to get upgrades for our sewer system. This system has been pouring raw sewage into River Inhabitants for years. Thanks to Mr Harper's Conservative Government, we are now getting the upgrades we need. Liberals were in Government for over a decade and wouldn't consider our requests. Maybe now my children will swim in this beautiful river like we did as kids. From this day forward I support Stephen Harper.

[updated Thu Oct 22 07:52:34 EDT 2009]

Who Is That Ronald O'Dowd?

Who does that blowhard Ronald O'Dowd think he is? Boy, is he ever full of himself. Haven't seen that much hot air since the Hindenburg blew up at Lakehurst, New Jersey.

And that hackneyed, clichéd writing style...it really shows that he doesn't watch Canadian news! I guess his mind turned to Jello years ago. Serves him right -- spending all that time watching Fox...

[updated Thu Oct 22 22:58:42 EDT 2009]

So Many Heads and No Available Crowns...

What a sight for sore sighs...three men who would be king, each of them without access to a most coveted crown. The Prince of Wales and Camilla have arrived in St. John's. (We all have a pretty good idea of how long Charles is likely to wait.)

But what of the other two pretenders of the realm? Prince Stephen fancies the idea of lording it over all he surveys but so far, Canadians have thought otherwise. Three cheers for reasoned common sense!

And what would be a royal reunion without the aspirant to the throne of the Rock. Prince Danny has already issued a few choice proclamations -- just ask any and everyone who happens to be smarting in the land of the fleur-de-lys. (I'll bet they're more than willing to light Danny's fire!)

In short, it requires an expert of the highest calibre to correctly fashion crowns for what could potentially be extremely swelled heads.

Break out the ermine robes, sceptres and champagne. The royals are in for a hell of a good time.

[updated Mon Nov 02 18:42:05 EST 2009]

I wonder where all the stimulus money is really going??
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ranks-of-people-exhausting-ei-grow/article1351194/
Tavia Grant

Globe and Mail Update
Published on Wednesday, Nov. 04, 2009 4:19PM EST

Last updated on Wednesday, Nov. 04, 2009 4:51PM EST

The number of people exhausting their jobless benefits is rising in line with large volume of claims, the federal government says.

It's the first official indication of current trends in exhaustion rates of employment insurance beneficiaries, a measure that is regularly tracked in the United States but not in Canada.

Human Resources and Skills Development Canada also said it is teaming up with Statistics Canada to explore ways to provide “more timely information” about the rate at which EI benefits are exhausted, a move Statistics Canada confirmed. Economists have said this data would give an important indication on the health of the labour market and the degree to which people may be needing social assistance.

In an e-mail statement yesterday, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada confirmed more people are running out of EI benefits without finding work.

“While we do not have definitive data on the exhaustion rate, experience is showing that the number of exhaustees is rising in line with the volume of claims,” HRSDC said.

Word that exhaustion rates will now be tracked was welcome to Bill Ross, a former IT director who saw his benefits expire three weeks ago. Mr. Ross, who lives in Liverpool, N.S., has been searching for work over the past year. Now that his benefits have run out, he's dipping into savings.

“If the government is interested in doing any kind of programs for people like me, they've got to know people like me exist. And if we're not in the numbers, how is that going to be put forward in any kind of budget?” he said.

Economists too, applauded the move. Regularly disclosing the rate at which people are running out of benefits “is a very positive development,” said Grant Bishop, economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “The more information there is available, the better agencies can plan and co-ordinate resources.”

As of August, more than 763,000 people were receiving regular jobless benefits, a 53-per-cent increase since the labour market peaked last October.

The latest numbers, however, showed a 2.4-per-cent drop in the number of people receiving regular claims month over month in July. The headline number appeared to be good news as the labour market stabilizes. But Statistics Canada analysts attribute part of the drop to benefit expiration.

The duration of EI benefits varies widely. In Quebec City and Regina, payouts can be as short as 19 weeks. In Charlottetown and Windsor, Ont., by contrast, benefits last as long as 50 weeks.

Over the past decade, between 28 and 32 per cent of EI regular claimants typically exhausted their benefit entitlements. That percentage could well be higher this year as the economy limps out of recession, experts say.

The U.S. Department of Labour, which publishes exhaustion rates monthly on its website, shows many more Americans are running out of unemployment insurance benefits. The U.S. exhaustion rate has jumped to 52.4 per cent in September from 39 per cent a year ago.

[updated Wed Nov 04 18:33:29 EST 2009]