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Harper widens leadership advantage over Ignatieff: Nanos Poll (Completed September 11th)
A new poll completed by Nanos Research indicates that Stephen Harper has widened his leadership index score advantage over Michael Ignatieff. Harper leads in all regions except Quebec where Ignatieff fares better than Harper on the Leadership Index.
I’m also pleased to announce the Nanos Report - a new, weekly, public affairs show on CPAC. The 30 minute program will air every Sunday at 10:30 am and 7:30 pm (all times Eastern) and will touch on politics and business issues.
Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between September 3rd and September 11th. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
LEADERSHIP INDEX QUESTION: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 31%
- Michael Ignatieff: 14%
- Jack Layton: 14%
- Gilles Duceppe: 8%
- Elizabeth May: 8%
- None of them/Undecided: 25%
The most competent leader
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 36%
- Michael Ignatieff: 20%
- Jack Layton: 11%
- Gilles Duceppe: 7%
- Elizabeth May: 2%
- None of them/Undecided: 24%
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 32%
- Michael Ignatieff: 20%
- Jack Layton: 15%
- Gilles Duceppe: 4%
- Elizabeth May: 4%
- None of them/Undecided: 25%
Leadership Index Score
- Stephen Harper: 99
- Michael Ignatieff: 54
- Jack Layton: 40
- Gilles Duceppe: 19
- Elizabeth May: 14
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right ... more
Crown & Anchor (Nova Scotia) 15 Sep 09:58
That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head ... more
Enlightened one (Alberta) 14 Sep 21:53
I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both ... more
Curtis (Ontario) 14 Sep 22:57
Truth you can believe in .... more
attila (suspended) (Alberta) 16 Sep 18:30
The Nanos Report. Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- ... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 20 Sep 20:31
Curtis... careful buddy or we can start talking about Trudeau and Chretien as hi... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 16 Sep 10:01
Comments
Enlightened one
That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head and shoulders over the other leaders in regards to leadership any day of the week!!!!
[updated Mon Sep 14 21:53:05 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 21:53
26 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Reform Voter
I have no faith in the Liberals and M.I. period, I think it will a Conservative majority, depends what they decide to with these Public Servants in Transport Canada, my suggestion they should get 20 years with parole, Pensions canceled, and spend money on a Federal Prison for these types in the middle of Baffin Island. Or maybe further north, and I forgot, make it illegal to have unions in the Federal government.
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:51:17 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:51
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Curtis
I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both sides of his mouth and he is the greatest hypocrite to ever hold the office of PM. He has no vision for the country, he has turned surpluses into deficit (before the stimulus budget) and he has turned the federal Parliament into the most disfunctional electoral body in the Western world, yet people still think he is doing a good job. How???
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:57:53 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:57
100 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Its an outlier! The Liberals will be screaming bloody murder Nik that you don't know what you are talking about.
This coupled with the Ipsos poll which I agree will need to be confirmed by more polls should be scaring the hell out of all the opposition parties.
Maybe the Czarist leader of the Liberal party will get it through his arrogant narcissistic head that Canadians do not want an election.
I know all the Lib sycophants i.e. elf, scotian, bernie, parnel will be out in full force. Hang on to your hat Nik you are going to be castigated unmercifully.
[updated Tue Sep 15 00:30:39 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 00:30
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
The Latest Ipsos Reid Poll falls in line with these leadership numbers. It has the CPC at 39, the LPC at 30 and the NDP at 12. If the NDP internal numbers are also reflecting this, it is a good bet that they will avoid an election. It would put them back to around 10 to 15 seats and they will be back to where they were in the Audrey/Alexa years.
It would also indicate that Mr. Layton is getting past his "best before" date. Expect and NDP leadership change in the next year or so.
It would also appear to support my theory that the soft NDP vote is moving to the LPC to "Stop Harper" and that the soft LPC centre/centre right vote is moving to the CPC to "Stop a Coalition".
[updated Tue Sep 15 06:59:30 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 06:59
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
I would suspect that Mr. Ignatieff is not looking back with great fondness on the day the the boys from Rosemount walked into his office a Harvard and said "We are from the Natural Governing Party of Canada and if you come home, we will make you Prime Minister of Canada" and he said "OK, that sounds like a nice way to finish my career".
[updated Tue Sep 15 08:53:46 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 08:53
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right on the head; "Canadian affection for PM Harper is like a privates affection for a Drill Sergeant, there isn't much love, but there is respect".
[updated Tue Sep 15 09:58:07 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 09:58
31 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
That's always how I thought Canadians would respond to Harper. No one's ever going to find him likeable, but they should eventually grow to appreciate his cool rationality.
It's only those people who feel that politics should be rules by passion and emotions who will find him forever unpalatable.
[updated Tue Sep 15 14:08:46 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 14:08
psiclone
The thing is canadians have almost never elected leaders that are likable - the old saying about Canadian PM's is that we have boneheads and bast*rds and we get rid of the boneheads a.s.ap!
[updated Tue Sep 15 14:12:53 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 14:12
So says Beetle Bailey .
[updated Tue Sep 15 17:44:21 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 17:44
elf
Crown and Anchor - perhaps as Canadians our collective ego has suffered so much under this man that we now don't feel we don't deserve any better - that we can't do any better -Harper has managed to disillusion Canadians with his lying nasty ways to the point where we ar even more apathetic than before - what's wrong with trying to do better ? what's wrong with wanting more ? I do - I want more of the Cnaada I used to know and love - heaven only knows where Canada will end up if Harper gets a majority - in his own words - " when I finish with Canada you won't recognise it " - heaven knows what it says about the Canadian people - we who used to be the gentle, friend of the world have suddenly turned our back on all that and we have become hostile and unfriendly - we break our word and don't give a rat's behind about other people's suffering - what the heck happened to Canada ?
[updated Tue Sep 15 17:54:46 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 17:54
hollinm
elf......the polls show you are all wet in your analysis. Canadians do not hate Harper as much as Liberals do. So quit deluding yourself.
[updated Tue Sep 15 18:45:30 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 18:45
hollinm
elf......the polls show you are all wet in your analysis. Canadians do not hate Harper as much as Liberals do. So quit deluding yourself.
[updated Tue Sep 15 18:45:49 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 18:45
My Canada, way back when coke was a soft drink and a joint was a hard place to hang out. Them days are gone, gone forever, to bad.
[updated Wed Sep 16 06:24:32 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 06:24
Check mate Harpo . Ignattieff is a rare genius .He has managed to dodge a bullet from the con-clowns and move the Bloc and NDP into the line of fire .
A de facto coalition is still a coalition . Idiots .Signed papers are meaningless .
Now they can oppose the government (?) at will .
Lights are shining brightly on the Liberal party .
[updated Tue Sep 15 19:56:43 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 19:56
HC in AB
Mr. Ingatieff had to go now, before there is more improvement in the economy and before the NDP can recover in the polls. Mr. Layton gets a couple of little bones to rationalize his propping up the government. If Mr. Layton gets the increased support he is looking for (splitting the vote on the left), and the economy continues to improve, Mr. Ignatieff will be toast in 6 months or a year.
It's not a coalition, would you say that there has been a coalition between your heros and Mr. Harper for the last 2 3/4 years? It is throwing the Dippers and Bloc a couple of scraps so they can justify their postion... the Dippers in the polls and the Bloc in finances.
[updated Tue Sep 15 21:48:18 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 21:48
Wildrose
Harper is cornered. He either chooses a coalition with the Socialists and the Separatists or he triggers an election. Either way it is going to cost him dearly in the polls. Ignatieff has completely outfoxed him on this and embarassed him with this strategy. Genius move on Ignatieff's part.
[updated Tue Sep 15 21:56:22 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 21:56
Harper is not cornered, just happens to be where he wants. Harper knows the liberals will vote non-confidence. Harper knows the NDP are so low in the polls they will vote confidence as long as there is no poison pills. Of course Layton's numbers will go up sooner or later, but this might give the government another five or six months. Pure political strategy for the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP; the Bloc is probably the only ones actually voting for their constituents. One thing though, there is no coalition between the NDP and Conservatives, Harper would go to an election before there were any backroom deals.
[updated Wed Sep 16 12:24:39 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 12:24
FromAlberta (Suspended)
"Harper is not cornered, just happens to be where he wants"
In a coalition with seperatists and socialists. Just where Ignatieff wants him. Either that or trigger an election. Both options Harper has already poisoned and is now cornered into choosing. Ignatieff really outfoxed him this time.
[updated Wed Sep 16 13:25:56 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 13:25
Wildrose
You are so right. Harper has to enter a coalition with the Bloc and NDP or trigger an election. Massive losing proposition either way as far as he himself has framed it.
[updated Tue Sep 15 21:58:58 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 21:58
elf
wildrose - well there we have it - amazing how the same arrangement can be seen in two ways - " treason " and a " threat to unity" when it's a co-alition to bring down the governemt ( according to Harper -??) yet now it is simply " co-operation " when Harper decides to use the Bloc to hold onto power - what a weasel - these CONs have no limits when it comes to sleazy politics
[updated Wed Sep 16 11:14:51 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 11:14
hollinm
attila....Canadians will accept the fourth party in the House not supporting the government but when the official opposition do it without even assessing the merits they will be punished at the polls. The Libs have given Harper another hammer to bash them over the heads in the next election. You can just see it.....this party (Libs) refused to vote.....for whatever the issue is.
Once again you guys sound uncooperative and have backed yourselves into a corner. You seem to be at good doing that these days.
[updated Wed Sep 16 10:16:55 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 10:16
FromAlberta (Suspended)
What gives you the right to always state what Canadians want and think? You are just a Harper propaganda spreading joke. Harper has backed himself in a corner and you guys are trying in a frenzy of posts to change the message. It is a joke.
[updated Wed Sep 16 10:21:08 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 10:21
westerner (suspended)
The only politican in a corner is Prince Iggy. The polls show he would lose big time and he has shot his politacal wad. What a stupid move on his part.
[updated Wed Sep 16 11:16:17 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 11:16
FromAlberta (Suspended)
Actualy you are wrong. Polls show Ignatieff would gain 20-30 seats. They also show Harper is likely to lose many. He cannot win a majority, because he is not popular.
Now Harper is in bed with the separatists and socilaists or he triggers an election. Either choice and his numbers are going to plummet. Ignatieff has outfoxed him. Genius Harper has blown it.
[updated Wed Sep 16 11:21:41 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 11:21
elf
From Alberta - you are right !! It's sooo funny - the shoe is most definitely on the other foot !!
- and Jack looks really bad now, ? Duceppe - well he will just always do what he wants anyway - but it's Jack who has also been the loser here - you can bet there will be dippers who will support Iggy now they have seen Jack back down - what's that song ? Hit the road Jack -
[updated Wed Sep 16 13:29:36 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 13:29
hollinm
FromAlberta......talk about spin.
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:11:32 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:11
westerner (suspended)
More Liberal fantasy. Conservatives are leading in all polls and the LIbs are having a hard time accepting the facts and begin spinning ridiculous tales.
Sounds a great deal like the old Parnel, doesn't it?
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:47:12 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:47
westerner (suspended)
More Liberal fantasy. Conservatives are leading in all polls and the LIbs are having a hard time accepting the facts and begin spinning ridiculous tales.
Sounds a great deal like the old Parnel, doesn't it?
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:47:29 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:47
hollinm
FromAlberta.....I have no idea what you are talking about. I can suggest what Canadians think because the polls are telling us what they think. The Conservatives are ahead in the polls and Iggy's leadership numbers stink. I rest my case.
Harper is in no corner as much as you are deluding yourself into believing. The polls suggest that he is heading towards a majority. Iggy has no traction and I would respectfully suggest it is Iggy who has once again put himself into a box.
Suggesting he will vote against anything the Conservatives put in the window is not indicative of one who wants to make parliament work and certainly demonstrates to Canadians that he is interested in only his own personal ambition and that of his party.
I think Canadians are sending a message to the Liberals and if they are so caught up in their own ambitions they are going to pay big time whenever the next election comes.
Talking about a joke. I don't see anybody making fun of Harper. However they are making fun of the Czarist Count. He truly is just visiting and the ads have done their job pointing that out to Canadians. He has been well defined.
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:07:24 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:07
hollinm
FromAlberta...it is people like you who are a joke. Your insistence that everybody hates Harper and loves Iggy is ridiculous and demonstrates clear desperation.
I can speak for Canadians when the polls support what I am saying. I will type very slowly so you can get it. The majority of the polls show Harper outpolls Iggy on all the key leadership questions. Iggy is even running behind his party depending on the poll.
Harper has not backed himself into a corner. He probably wants an election as demonstrated by the number of ads playing. He is 5-8 points ahead in the polls and is considered the preferred prime minister.
If that's being backed into corner then I guess I just don't get it.
[updated Sat Sep 19 18:46:14 EDT 2009]
19 Sep 18:46
Keep spinning that hard, your head will come flying off .
[updated Wed Sep 16 18:46:22 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 18:46
hollinm
attila....you know in your heart of hearts what I say is true. Iggy is going to pay at the time of the next election for being irresponsible when Canadians expect "all" politicians to work in the best of the country.
Iggy will be roundly criticized for not supporting changes to EI, defeating additional stimulus spending, home reno tax credit and other things that are coming before the next election.
I actually get the sense that Lib supporters on this board are becoming more frustrated, strident, angry and hence are lashing out.
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:13:13 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:13
westerner (suspended)
The LIbs are very angry that the Conservatives are leading in all polls. They were forcasting Iggy gaining momentum and overtaking the Conservatives with the electorate. That is NOT happening and they are indeed lashing out in frustration.
[updated Thu Sep 17 14:42:09 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 14:42
elf
is that what you do westerner ? lash out ? get angry ? like your CON buddies ? They get angry and they get abusive too ( Belinda S.) we see it from CONs all the time -
Most of us Liberals aren't like that - generally we are able to express ourselves with words and not resort to simplistic insults about people's appearance - we argue the facts, we make our points and we stick to the truth - you Cons distort the facts just like your CON leader - it's plain to see on this site that all of you CONs are the same !!
[updated Thu Sep 17 15:07:11 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 15:07
westerner (suspended)
Do a review of the LIb comments on this blog, please! They do not "argue facts" or "stick to the truth". They spin nonsense in the face of polling results. It is plain to see, on this site, that all Libs are the same!!
[updated Thu Sep 17 15:14:07 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 15:14
hollinm
westerner.....thanks for trying to keep Liberals honest. They are the masters of the smear. However that's what lefties are good at. Smear.
Never do they attack Conservative policies. Its always attack Harper the person. The galling thing is they then deny that they smear and attack. Look at elf's comments about. Talk about hypocrites.
[updated Thu Sep 17 15:24:35 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 15:24
elf
okay westerner, you clearly haven't been paying attention - policy issues the Libs apparently refuse to discuss - ?? here we go
Libs have the following issues with the policies of the C.R.A.P.
( Harper in particular because he alone makes all the decisions )
hmmmm - where to begin -
cuts to womens' and childrens services, cuts to the arts and promotion of our artists overseas / Canada in the world - the breaking of the International Treaty regarding the treatment of child soldiers and the failure to bring Omar home - the breaking of the Kyoto protocol - the cancellation of the Kelowna accord, the lack of funding / cuts to the Court Challenges programme - breaking his own law by calling an election before his four year term- breaking his word on Income trusts - failure to protect Canadians abroad and the failure to abide by Canadian Foreign Policy by refusing to intervene in the case of the death penalty - the cancellation of the child care arrangement that was made with the Provinces and the up -coming cancellation of the gun registration ( I know that's your pet peeve westerner) - I think that's enough for now - I'll continue later - there's plenty more - yes we are not particularly fond of any CONs but our real problem is with Harper becasue for some reason you all seem to copy his bullying behaviour and you seem to think he is good man - no wonder we Libs think you are all nut bars.
Any Liberals out there care to add to this list for poor misguided westerner who apparently can't understand why we have a problem with Harper ? ?
[updated Thu Sep 17 17:18:38 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 17:18
Diagnostician
The following points need to be considered when ranking Stephen Harper: He has defeated and survived Paul Martin and Stephane Dion. He is an experienced leader of a major political party, which resonates with a large segment of Canada's population, and which does little or no harm to the remainder of the population. He is a dull leader who can surprise with brilliant manouvres (Manley on Afghanistan, Doer to Washington). Those who label the 2008 election as unnecessary are flat out wrong, as before that election Harper needed the support of two other parties to survive, and now he needs only the support of one other party to survive, a major difference. Also consider how he has outwitted Ignatieff, who demanded changes on four fronts in June in exchange for Liberal support, and got a committee on E.I. as a result. That committee on purpose was allowed to fail, so the Liberals would not get credit for any changes, instead, the changes were tailored to play to the NDP's base, and will generate NDP support for the Conservatives.
These are all signs of a clever leader providing peace, order and good government, and should an election occur in the next few months, Harper will get a majority from anglophone Canada, which will lead to the demise of the Bloc, a result that will be positive for a strong, united Canada.
[updated Tue Sep 15 10:24:09 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 10:24
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Dennis (Second Thoughts)
These are interesting numbers. I wonder how they affect the national party standing, which I'm sure are to follow soon. If the trend continues, my guess is that Iggy won't be pleased.
[updated Tue Sep 15 10:42:21 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 10:42
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HarperS****k (Suspended)
Harper is hitting another new low in wasting our taxpayers money. He is erecting campaign style signs in my riding with Economic Action Plan crap. This is an outrage to Canadian Taxpayers that he is putting these signs up on our dime. He is clearly a scumbag and abusing our tax dollars for partisan purposes. There is no lw that this creep will no stoop to in his quest for power. He is a disgrace to Canada.
[updated Tue Sep 15 21:48:31 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 21:48
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FromAlberta (Suspended)
It's official! The Harper government must agree to a coalition with the seperatists and the socialist idealogues he despises so much, or trigger an election. Ignatieff outfoxed Harper on this one and has placed the PM in this embarassing situation. Ignatieff has won this round soundly.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:05:08 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:05
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Scotian
Harper has had a bad week. First he has to admit he and Flaherty have miscalculted the deficit, yet again, then Harper gets boxed in by Ignatieff and gets in bed with the separatists and socilaists. An embarassment for alll Tories. Now he gets a big snub by Obama. Obama gives him a paltry 42 minutes and has him greeted at the door by an underling. Clearly Harper is not liked by Obama, no matter how hard they try to pretend they are lefties. Obama's not buying the Harper hypocrisy.
[updated Wed Sep 16 17:59:22 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 17:59
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westerner (suspended)
Harper is crushing Iggy on the leadership index. Not hard to understand when Iggy takes the summer off and has yet to establish any Liberal policy positions which were promised by him by June 2009
[updated Thu Sep 17 15:18:58 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 15:18
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HC in AB
Nik
A question.
Do you (or other polling firms who's methodology that you may have knowledge of) adjust your published results to reflect the historical likelyhood of various age demographics to vote?
For example the, 18 to 25 year old cohort consistently polls in favor of the LPC/NDP/GP but (in my recollection, I stand to be corrected) only has about a 40% voter turnout. If an adjustment is not made and the persons polled accurately reflect the age demographic of the overall population, would the published results not overstate the likey election day support for the LPC/NDP/GP? Conversely, the 50 year old plus cohort are likely to have about a 70% or more voter turnout but consistently poll in favor of the CPC.
[updated Thu Sep 17 18:28:27 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 18:28
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PSSSSST; the word on the street, Mr Ignatieff is wanting an election so the Liberals can make some progress in seat numbers, Iggy will take credit for rebuilding the party and exit Canada. Iggy saves face and he's back in Harrrrvarrrd before the 2010 fall semester.
[updated Fri Sep 18 08:40:14 EDT 2009]
18 Sep 08:40
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RonaldODowd
The Nanos Report.
Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- it was excellent. I look forward to many fine programs and encourage everyone to take it in.
By the way Nik, you're doing a fine job as moderator considering that you are not a trained journalist. Keep up the good work.
[updated Sun Sep 20 20:31:51 EDT 2009]
20 Sep 20:31
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