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Harper widens leadership advantage over Ignatieff: Nanos Poll (Completed September 11th)
A new poll completed by Nanos Research indicates that Stephen Harper has widened his leadership index score advantage over Michael Ignatieff. Harper leads in all regions except Quebec where Ignatieff fares better than Harper on the Leadership Index.
I’m also pleased to announce the Nanos Report - a new, weekly, public affairs show on CPAC. The 30 minute program will air every Sunday at 10:30 am and 7:30 pm (all times Eastern) and will touch on politics and business issues.
Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between September 3rd and September 11th. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
LEADERSHIP INDEX QUESTION: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 31%
- Michael Ignatieff: 14%
- Jack Layton: 14%
- Gilles Duceppe: 8%
- Elizabeth May: 8%
- None of them/Undecided: 25%
The most competent leader
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 36%
- Michael Ignatieff: 20%
- Jack Layton: 11%
- Gilles Duceppe: 7%
- Elizabeth May: 2%
- None of them/Undecided: 24%
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
National (n=1,002)
- Stephen Harper: 32%
- Michael Ignatieff: 20%
- Jack Layton: 15%
- Gilles Duceppe: 4%
- Elizabeth May: 4%
- None of them/Undecided: 25%
Leadership Index Score
- Stephen Harper: 99
- Michael Ignatieff: 54
- Jack Layton: 40
- Gilles Duceppe: 19
- Elizabeth May: 14
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right ... more
Crown & Anchor (Nova Scotia) 15 Sep 09:58
That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head ... more
Enlightened one (Alberta) 14 Sep 21:53
I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both ... more
Curtis (Ontario) 14 Sep 22:57
Truth you can believe in .... more
attila (suspended) (Alberta) 16 Sep 18:30
The Nanos Report. Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- ... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 20 Sep 20:31
Curtis... careful buddy or we can start talking about Trudeau and Chretien as hi... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 16 Sep 10:01
Comments
Enlightened one
That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head and shoulders over the other leaders in regards to leadership any day of the week!!!!
[updated Mon Sep 14 21:53:05 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 21:53
26 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
wilson61
In all but one question,
Harper beats: MI and Jack combined!
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:37:36 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:37
Tommies
heeeheeeheeeheeeheeeeheeeeehheeee!
I just can't stop laughing at the way the PM psychs these other guys out. Their only response is "he doesn't work with any of us"!!! Poor babies!!
heeeeeeheeeeeeheeeeheeee!
Ah man he's awesome!!!
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:54:58 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:54
elf
Tommies - you won't be laughing when the writ drops and Canadians see Harper for what he is and how he is ruining the country. Iggy will tie him in knots at any debates.
Today your guy climbed into bed with the very people he said would threaten National Unity - he is so desperate to stay in power - what a sleaze - this man has no integrity whatever.
[updated Wed Sep 16 14:01:28 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 14:01
Tommies
Iggy has trouble answering a question from reporters in press conferences. He's too slow. Not quick enough for a good debate. In fact when he was answering the questions the other day when he was supposed to be saying something about EI-I thought man this guy will get creamed in a debate.|By the time he grins, turns his head, wrinkles those eyebrows-it'll be over. No one climbed in bed with any one-the gov't brings in good policy-hey whoever wants to vote for it is free to do so. No back room deals sitting down like the 3 amigos at the SAME table all 165 signatures. No, no, no-sorry not the same thing and you know Canadians voted those MP's in-they have every right to vote how they wish just like Layton did with Martin. The Bloq-can also vote anyway they want-NO SIGNED DEALS here with anyone-everyone just doing as they were voted to do stand up for their constituents. Unlike Iggy who is not standing up for anyone-just standing up because he's scared to lay down in case someone in his party knifes him!!!
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:23:28 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:23
elf
Tommies - yes Iggy pauses when answering questions - it's called thinking before you speak - for those who are used to speaking mindlessly - read CONs - thoughtful responses may be something new for you to get used to -
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:26:28 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:26
FromAlberta (Suspended)
he doesn't kneejerk to a lie so he takes his time. Harper is quick because he just makes up a lie abouit everything. Got him in the coalition mess he is in right now.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:29:51 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:29
FromAlberta (Suspended)
elf, it must be really bad if they are resorting to this kind of weak silliness.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:32:47 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:32
elf
FromAlberta - yes, Harper needs a big shovel to dig himself out of this mess - but I do find it all rather amusing .
And I think Jack will soon fade off into the sunset - he has cooked his goose by voting with the C.R.A.P. guys - and they can make all the excuses they like but I think they will live to regret it
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:41:23 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:41
FromAlberta (Suspended)
You know how bad it is when the e-volunteers around here are resorting to personal silly comments about Ignatieff. It is very obvious they are uncomfortable and squirming.
Ignatieff's moves were brilliant. He forced the other two parties to vote with Harper and released the secret agenda tape, showing Harper crying that he will never work with them. Then he has to give them EI to get their vote. Masterfully embarrassing Harper and making his coalition ads look ridiculous.
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:03:21 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:03
FromAlberta (Suspended)
So slow that he outfoxed Harper this week. Now Harper is stuck with a coalition with the separatists and socialist idealogues or trigger an election. He's cornered and everyone knows it. Embarassing having all thios evil coalition ads on when you are voting with the separatists and socialists. What a joke Harper looks like now.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:26:40 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:26
Tommies
Correction-they are voting WITH him as they vote to represent their constituents. NOTHING SIGNED HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can try to twist it any way you want-that's why the PM said right from the start-no back room deals here. Because he knew the opposition MP's that are listening to their constituents DID NOT WANT AN ELECTION and the liberal MP's got the same message from their constituents-but they are ONLY IN IT FOR THEMSELVES. Have a look at the leadership index that Nanos produced 99-54 for Harper. Iggy's dead meat!!
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:35:19 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:35
FromAlberta (Suspended)
Give me a break, Harper would never have thrown the EI bone unless he was trying to attract the coalition support.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:36:31 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:36
Tommies
Correction AGAIN!!!He didn't get the coalition support-only 2/3 of it. Heeheeeheeee!!The Liberals are now the new NDP-going to vote against everything without reading anything
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:41:17 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:41
FromAlberta (Suspended)
Yes to form his own coalition with the socialists and the seperatists.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:44:52 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:44
elf
Tommies - your one sided ( right of course) view of the situation is not funny at all - it is actually rather pathetic - you guys won't know what hit you when Iggy hits his stride - there is no way that Harper can come out of this looking like anything except a thoroughly devious and untrustworthy politician desperate to hold onto his job.
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:15:43 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:15
Tommies
Iggy better hit his stride pretty soon-he's 62-63!!! Won't have a stride at all pretty soon. Especially with Rae nipping on his heels with each stride!
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:20:26 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:20
FromAlberta (Suspended)
Iggy has plenty of time. Martin became Pm when he was 69. That gives Ignatieff at least 7 years. Not a problem for several tries in this minority situation.
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:23:25 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:23
Tommies
Right and Martin lasted a long time!!!!!!!!!!
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:29:18 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:29
westerner (suspended)
The condescending Prince will have returned to "his country" the USA long before then.
[updated Wed Sep 16 23:22:44 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 23:22
Tommies
That's what you guys said last fall about proroguing!!! Look at him in the polls now. He knows how to work you guys!!!
[updated Wed Sep 16 16:24:20 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 16:24
hollinm
Enlightened one.....right on the mark.
However, the Libs on this board are going to attack you and me unmercifully along with Nik.
[updated Tue Sep 15 00:31:56 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 00:31
syl (suspended)
mervin, I don't attack people I pity but I do enjoy poking them with a stick.
If one thnks about it the Harpercrite was out on the hustings all summer. Iggy has held his fire and is slowly with his ads making himself a more known figure. The results of this campaign will onlky ber known on election day.
The Libs have wonderrful surprises for the Harpercrite gang once the writ is dropped. The Libs do polling as well in case you wonder and are still very bullish on an election.
Look at some historical stuff about sitting PM's and summer popularity.
[updated Tue Sep 15 02:51:00 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 02:51
hollinm
syl.....and Iggy was roundly criticized in the media for hiding or simply sitting at home in the rain thinking thoughts.
If you think those ads are going to do anything for your guy then you really do have the blinders on. He truly looks like an effete academic sitting in front of a green screen.
Yesterdays speech bombed. When he said the reason he wanted to be PM was because he was his father's son my gag reflexes came into play. Who does he think he is kidding? After 34 years he comes back because he discovered he was his father's son and needed to become PM. P.l.e.a.s.e
Re-introducing Chretien's trade missions? Forming a G20 secretariat? and this is going to be his foreign policy.
There is no doubt in my mind in the next election the Libs will play dirty but all I can say is two can play that game. Iggy has his Toronto guys. Harper has his campaign veterans ready to do battle.
[updated Tue Sep 15 18:27:14 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 18:27
psiclone
I wouldn't worry about Liberals attacking us Conservatives right now - as they are too busy attacking the NDP = ROFL LMAO
[updated Tue Sep 15 14:16:37 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 14:16
elf
psiclone - oh no we're not - we're not attacking anyne because we are too busy laughing at Harper joining forces with those awful separatists and the evil left winger socialst guys ( ha ha ) in order to keep his job !!
Of course if he does lose his job at least he won't end up on EI - he won't have to lose everything because of his own mean spirited EI policies.
[updated Wed Sep 16 14:07:09 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 14:07
That is ,too, funny .
Yea, Harpo is a real leader alright .
He leads a brain dead government and brain adlled supporters .
He is a mental case with no redeeming social value .
[updated Thu Sep 17 13:51:24 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 13:51
Reform Voter
I have no faith in the Liberals and M.I. period, I think it will a Conservative majority, depends what they decide to with these Public Servants in Transport Canada, my suggestion they should get 20 years with parole, Pensions canceled, and spend money on a Federal Prison for these types in the middle of Baffin Island. Or maybe further north, and I forgot, make it illegal to have unions in the Federal government.
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:51:17 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:51
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Curtis
I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both sides of his mouth and he is the greatest hypocrite to ever hold the office of PM. He has no vision for the country, he has turned surpluses into deficit (before the stimulus budget) and he has turned the federal Parliament into the most disfunctional electoral body in the Western world, yet people still think he is doing a good job. How???
[updated Mon Sep 14 22:57:53 EDT 2009]
14 Sep 22:57
100 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Its an outlier! The Liberals will be screaming bloody murder Nik that you don't know what you are talking about.
This coupled with the Ipsos poll which I agree will need to be confirmed by more polls should be scaring the hell out of all the opposition parties.
Maybe the Czarist leader of the Liberal party will get it through his arrogant narcissistic head that Canadians do not want an election.
I know all the Lib sycophants i.e. elf, scotian, bernie, parnel will be out in full force. Hang on to your hat Nik you are going to be castigated unmercifully.
[updated Tue Sep 15 00:30:39 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 00:30
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
The Latest Ipsos Reid Poll falls in line with these leadership numbers. It has the CPC at 39, the LPC at 30 and the NDP at 12. If the NDP internal numbers are also reflecting this, it is a good bet that they will avoid an election. It would put them back to around 10 to 15 seats and they will be back to where they were in the Audrey/Alexa years.
It would also indicate that Mr. Layton is getting past his "best before" date. Expect and NDP leadership change in the next year or so.
It would also appear to support my theory that the soft NDP vote is moving to the LPC to "Stop Harper" and that the soft LPC centre/centre right vote is moving to the CPC to "Stop a Coalition".
[updated Tue Sep 15 06:59:30 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 06:59
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
I would suspect that Mr. Ignatieff is not looking back with great fondness on the day the the boys from Rosemount walked into his office a Harvard and said "We are from the Natural Governing Party of Canada and if you come home, we will make you Prime Minister of Canada" and he said "OK, that sounds like a nice way to finish my career".
[updated Tue Sep 15 08:53:46 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 08:53
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right on the head; "Canadian affection for PM Harper is like a privates affection for a Drill Sergeant, there isn't much love, but there is respect".
[updated Tue Sep 15 09:58:07 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 09:58
31 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Diagnostician
The following points need to be considered when ranking Stephen Harper: He has defeated and survived Paul Martin and Stephane Dion. He is an experienced leader of a major political party, which resonates with a large segment of Canada's population, and which does little or no harm to the remainder of the population. He is a dull leader who can surprise with brilliant manouvres (Manley on Afghanistan, Doer to Washington). Those who label the 2008 election as unnecessary are flat out wrong, as before that election Harper needed the support of two other parties to survive, and now he needs only the support of one other party to survive, a major difference. Also consider how he has outwitted Ignatieff, who demanded changes on four fronts in June in exchange for Liberal support, and got a committee on E.I. as a result. That committee on purpose was allowed to fail, so the Liberals would not get credit for any changes, instead, the changes were tailored to play to the NDP's base, and will generate NDP support for the Conservatives.
These are all signs of a clever leader providing peace, order and good government, and should an election occur in the next few months, Harper will get a majority from anglophone Canada, which will lead to the demise of the Bloc, a result that will be positive for a strong, united Canada.
[updated Tue Sep 15 10:24:09 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 10:24
77 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Dennis (Second Thoughts)
These are interesting numbers. I wonder how they affect the national party standing, which I'm sure are to follow soon. If the trend continues, my guess is that Iggy won't be pleased.
[updated Tue Sep 15 10:42:21 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 10:42
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HarperS****k (Suspended)
Harper is hitting another new low in wasting our taxpayers money. He is erecting campaign style signs in my riding with Economic Action Plan crap. This is an outrage to Canadian Taxpayers that he is putting these signs up on our dime. He is clearly a scumbag and abusing our tax dollars for partisan purposes. There is no lw that this creep will no stoop to in his quest for power. He is a disgrace to Canada.
[updated Tue Sep 15 21:48:31 EDT 2009]
15 Sep 21:48
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FromAlberta (Suspended)
It's official! The Harper government must agree to a coalition with the seperatists and the socialist idealogues he despises so much, or trigger an election. Ignatieff outfoxed Harper on this one and has placed the PM in this embarassing situation. Ignatieff has won this round soundly.
[updated Wed Sep 16 15:05:08 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 15:05
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Scotian
Harper has had a bad week. First he has to admit he and Flaherty have miscalculted the deficit, yet again, then Harper gets boxed in by Ignatieff and gets in bed with the separatists and socilaists. An embarassment for alll Tories. Now he gets a big snub by Obama. Obama gives him a paltry 42 minutes and has him greeted at the door by an underling. Clearly Harper is not liked by Obama, no matter how hard they try to pretend they are lefties. Obama's not buying the Harper hypocrisy.
[updated Wed Sep 16 17:59:22 EDT 2009]
16 Sep 17:59
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
Harper is crushing Iggy on the leadership index. Not hard to understand when Iggy takes the summer off and has yet to establish any Liberal policy positions which were promised by him by June 2009
[updated Thu Sep 17 15:18:58 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 15:18
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
Nik
A question.
Do you (or other polling firms who's methodology that you may have knowledge of) adjust your published results to reflect the historical likelyhood of various age demographics to vote?
For example the, 18 to 25 year old cohort consistently polls in favor of the LPC/NDP/GP but (in my recollection, I stand to be corrected) only has about a 40% voter turnout. If an adjustment is not made and the persons polled accurately reflect the age demographic of the overall population, would the published results not overstate the likey election day support for the LPC/NDP/GP? Conversely, the 50 year old plus cohort are likely to have about a 70% or more voter turnout but consistently poll in favor of the CPC.
[updated Thu Sep 17 18:28:27 EDT 2009]
17 Sep 18:28
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
PSSSSST; the word on the street, Mr Ignatieff is wanting an election so the Liberals can make some progress in seat numbers, Iggy will take credit for rebuilding the party and exit Canada. Iggy saves face and he's back in Harrrrvarrrd before the 2010 fall semester.
[updated Fri Sep 18 08:40:14 EDT 2009]
18 Sep 08:40
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RonaldODowd
The Nanos Report.
Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- it was excellent. I look forward to many fine programs and encourage everyone to take it in.
By the way Nik, you're doing a fine job as moderator considering that you are not a trained journalist. Keep up the good work.
[updated Sun Sep 20 20:31:51 EDT 2009]
20 Sep 20:31
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