Thursday, April 17, 2014 - (47109 comments)

Harper widens leadership advantage over Ignatieff: Nanos Poll (Completed September 11th)

346 comments Latest by Diagnostician

A new poll completed by Nanos Research indicates that Stephen Harper has widened his leadership index score advantage over Michael Ignatieff. Harper leads in all regions except Quebec where Ignatieff fares better than Harper on the Leadership Index.

I’m also pleased to announce the Nanos Report - a new, weekly, public affairs show on CPAC. The 30 minute program will air every Sunday at 10:30 am and 7:30 pm (all times Eastern) and will touch on politics and business issues.

Methodology

Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between September 3rd and September 11th. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

LEADERSHIP INDEX QUESTION: As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

The most trustworthy leader

National (n=1,002)

  • Stephen Harper: 31%
  • Michael Ignatieff: 14%
  • Jack Layton: 14%
  • Gilles Duceppe: 8%
  • Elizabeth May: 8%
  • None of them/Undecided: 25%

The most competent leader

National (n=1,002)

  • Stephen Harper: 36%
  • Michael Ignatieff: 20%
  • Jack Layton: 11%
  • Gilles Duceppe: 7%
  • Elizabeth May: 2%
  • None of them/Undecided: 24%

The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

National (n=1,002)

  • Stephen Harper: 32%
  • Michael Ignatieff: 20%
  • Jack Layton: 15%
  • Gilles Duceppe: 4%
  • Elizabeth May: 4%
  • None of them/Undecided: 25%

Leadership Index Score

  • Stephen Harper: 99
  • Michael Ignatieff: 54
  • Jack Layton: 40
  • Gilles Duceppe: 19
  • Elizabeth May: 14

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard

Reply to Topic

Most Read Comments

Highest Rated Comments

Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right ... more

Crown & Anchor (Nova Scotia) 15 Sep 09:58

That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head ... more

Enlightened one (Alberta) 14 Sep 21:53

I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both ... more

Curtis (Ontario) 14 Sep 22:57

Truth you can believe in .... more

attila (suspended) (Alberta) 16 Sep 18:30

The Nanos Report. Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- ... more

RonaldODowd (Ontario) 20 Sep 20:31

Curtis... careful buddy or we can start talking about Trudeau and Chretien as hi... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 16 Sep 10:01

Comments

Enlightened one

That's great . Maybe Canadians are waking up to the reality that Harper is head and shoulders over the other leaders in regards to leadership any day of the week!!!!

[updated Mon Sep 14 21:53:05 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

14 Sep 21:53

26 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Reform Voter

I have no faith in the Liberals and M.I. period, I think it will a Conservative majority, depends what they decide to with these Public Servants in Transport Canada, my suggestion they should get 20 years with parole, Pensions canceled, and spend money on a Federal Prison for these types in the middle of Baffin Island. Or maybe further north, and I forgot, make it illegal to have unions in the Federal government.

[updated Mon Sep 14 22:51:17 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

14 Sep 22:51

2 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Curtis

I am shocked at these numbers. Stephen Harper does nothing but lie out of both sides of his mouth and he is the greatest hypocrite to ever hold the office of PM. He has no vision for the country, he has turned surpluses into deficit (before the stimulus budget) and he has turned the federal Parliament into the most disfunctional electoral body in the Western world, yet people still think he is doing a good job. How???

[updated Mon Sep 14 22:57:53 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

14 Sep 22:57

100 replies so far. Join this conversation.

hollinm

Its an outlier! The Liberals will be screaming bloody murder Nik that you don't know what you are talking about.

This coupled with the Ipsos poll which I agree will need to be confirmed by more polls should be scaring the hell out of all the opposition parties.

Maybe the Czarist leader of the Liberal party will get it through his arrogant narcissistic head that Canadians do not want an election.

I know all the Lib sycophants i.e. elf, scotian, bernie, parnel will be out in full force. Hang on to your hat Nik you are going to be castigated unmercifully.

[updated Tue Sep 15 00:30:39 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 00:30

3 replies so far. Join this conversation.

HC in AB

The Latest Ipsos Reid Poll falls in line with these leadership numbers. It has the CPC at 39, the LPC at 30 and the NDP at 12. If the NDP internal numbers are also reflecting this, it is a good bet that they will avoid an election. It would put them back to around 10 to 15 seats and they will be back to where they were in the Audrey/Alexa years.

It would also indicate that Mr. Layton is getting past his "best before" date. Expect and NDP leadership change in the next year or so.

It would also appear to support my theory that the soft NDP vote is moving to the LPC to "Stop Harper" and that the soft LPC centre/centre right vote is moving to the CPC to "Stop a Coalition".

[updated Tue Sep 15 06:59:30 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 06:59

19 replies so far. Join this conversation.

HC in AB

I would suspect that Mr. Ignatieff is not looking back with great fondness on the day the the boys from Rosemount walked into his office a Harvard and said "We are from the Natural Governing Party of Canada and if you come home, we will make you Prime Minister of Canada" and he said "OK, that sounds like a nice way to finish my career".

[updated Tue Sep 15 08:53:46 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 08:53

2 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Crown___anchor_thumb Crown & Anchor

Like it or not people, I believe Craig Oliver (CTV) hit the nail right on right on the head; "Canadian affection for PM Harper is like a privates affection for a Drill Sergeant, there isn't much love, but there is respect".

[updated Tue Sep 15 09:58:07 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 09:58

31 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Diagnostician

The following points need to be considered when ranking Stephen Harper: He has defeated and survived Paul Martin and Stephane Dion. He is an experienced leader of a major political party, which resonates with a large segment of Canada's population, and which does little or no harm to the remainder of the population. He is a dull leader who can surprise with brilliant manouvres (Manley on Afghanistan, Doer to Washington). Those who label the 2008 election as unnecessary are flat out wrong, as before that election Harper needed the support of two other parties to survive, and now he needs only the support of one other party to survive, a major difference. Also consider how he has outwitted Ignatieff, who demanded changes on four fronts in June in exchange for Liberal support, and got a committee on E.I. as a result. That committee on purpose was allowed to fail, so the Liberals would not get credit for any changes, instead, the changes were tailored to play to the NDP's base, and will generate NDP support for the Conservatives.
These are all signs of a clever leader providing peace, order and good government, and should an election occur in the next few months, Harper will get a majority from anglophone Canada, which will lead to the demise of the Bloc, a result that will be positive for a strong, united Canada.

[updated Tue Sep 15 10:24:09 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 10:24

77 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Dennis (Second Thoughts)

These are interesting numbers. I wonder how they affect the national party standing, which I'm sure are to follow soon. If the trend continues, my guess is that Iggy won't be pleased.

[updated Tue Sep 15 10:42:21 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 10:42

1 reply so far. Join this conversation.

HarperS****k (Suspended)

Harper is hitting another new low in wasting our taxpayers money. He is erecting campaign style signs in my riding with Economic Action Plan crap. This is an outrage to Canadian Taxpayers that he is putting these signs up on our dime. He is clearly a scumbag and abusing our tax dollars for partisan purposes. There is no lw that this creep will no stoop to in his quest for power. He is a disgrace to Canada.

[updated Tue Sep 15 21:48:31 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

15 Sep 21:48

32 replies so far. Join this conversation.

FromAlberta (Suspended)

It's official! The Harper government must agree to a coalition with the seperatists and the socialist idealogues he despises so much, or trigger an election. Ignatieff outfoxed Harper on this one and has placed the PM in this embarassing situation. Ignatieff has won this round soundly.

[updated Wed Sep 16 15:05:08 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

16 Sep 15:05

27 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Scotian

Harper has had a bad week. First he has to admit he and Flaherty have miscalculted the deficit, yet again, then Harper gets boxed in by Ignatieff and gets in bed with the separatists and socilaists. An embarassment for alll Tories. Now he gets a big snub by Obama. Obama gives him a paltry 42 minutes and has him greeted at the door by an underling. Clearly Harper is not liked by Obama, no matter how hard they try to pretend they are lefties. Obama's not buying the Harper hypocrisy.

[updated Wed Sep 16 17:59:22 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

16 Sep 17:59

6 replies so far. Join this conversation.

westerner (suspended)

Harper is crushing Iggy on the leadership index. Not hard to understand when Iggy takes the summer off and has yet to establish any Liberal policy positions which were promised by him by June 2009

[updated Thu Sep 17 15:18:58 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

17 Sep 15:18

1 reply so far. Join this conversation.

HC in AB

Nik

A question.

Do you (or other polling firms who's methodology that you may have knowledge of) adjust your published results to reflect the historical likelyhood of various age demographics to vote?

For example the, 18 to 25 year old cohort consistently polls in favor of the LPC/NDP/GP but (in my recollection, I stand to be corrected) only has about a 40% voter turnout. If an adjustment is not made and the persons polled accurately reflect the age demographic of the overall population, would the published results not overstate the likey election day support for the LPC/NDP/GP? Conversely, the 50 year old plus cohort are likely to have about a 70% or more voter turnout but consistently poll in favor of the CPC.

[updated Thu Sep 17 18:28:27 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

17 Sep 18:28

2 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Crown___anchor_thumb Crown & Anchor

PSSSSST; the word on the street, Mr Ignatieff is wanting an election so the Liberals can make some progress in seat numbers, Iggy will take credit for rebuilding the party and exit Canada. Iggy saves face and he's back in Harrrrvarrrd before the 2010 fall semester.

[updated Fri Sep 18 08:40:14 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

18 Sep 08:40

1 reply so far. Join this conversation.

RonaldODowd

The Nanos Report.

Congratulations! Just caught the premiere episode of TNR -- it was excellent. I look forward to many fine programs and encourage everyone to take it in.

By the way Nik, you're doing a fine job as moderator considering that you are not a trained journalist. Keep up the good work.

[updated Sun Sep 20 20:31:51 -0400 2009]

Reply to Comment

20 Sep 20:31

No replies yet. Join this conversation.