Nanos National Poll - Election speculation fuels Tories (Completed September 2nd)

Massive undecided vote. Very volitile. Anything could happen. No one is crashing and no one is running away from the pack. Obviously, Conservatives gained some from the initial anti-election voters, however that will wear off over time as the campaign heats up.

[updated Wed Sep 09 00:19:04 EDT 2009]

Cons always poll well but never get enough votes to close the deal .Form a majority .
No election call and already the numbers are bouncing like flubber .
Huge undecided column .
Expect at least another one million voters to vote Liberal in this election .

[updated Wed Sep 09 01:46:23 EDT 2009]

There's not much validity when you speculate who you might vote for in a speculative election. We may not be having an election for quite a while.
I like the Green and with all things being equal I'd vote green. But who I actually vote for depends on how I determine what the situation is at voting time. For example, if I felt that the Conservative might win in my district and my vote would stop him/her I would vote Liberal.

The talking heads say there is no overriding issue. Sheesh! they must be blind and deaf.
What about the environment, poverty, and health.
The greatest issue now is the democratic deficit, not the fiscal one. And this present government is the most undemocratic we've ever had.
Bring on the election and rid ourselves of this destructive administration.

[updated Wed Sep 09 07:31:17 EDT 2009]

I hope Danny Williams cranks up the ABC movement again.I like to think of it as the Atlantic Block Constituency. Darrell Dexter's majority victory in N.S. could have a positive effect for the national party, but with almost 25% undecided,who can tell.N.S. is still 50/50 rural/urban and right now Canada Post is putting the boots to rural service.That won't win any friends for the CPC.

[updated Wed Sep 09 08:03:19 EDT 2009]

Good to see this trend.

[updated Wed Sep 09 09:06:38 EDT 2009]

Today is September 9th. Why is this poll being released a week after it was taken. Had the Liberals seen this in Sudbury the caucus may have forced a revolt (or at least a serious discusion) on Ignatieff decision to roll the dice.

If the Liberals don't back down it the election will be based either upon emotion or perhaps the Liberal economists are predicting a much stronger economy over the next 12 months that they don't want Harper to get credit.

[updated Wed Sep 09 09:46:18 EDT 2009]

While I am happy the Conservative polling numbers are up the undecided is very large. Of course that will change as we get closer to an election call. So time will tell.

The Harper haters on this board love those polls that show the Libs ahead but as soon as the Conservatives show any momentum (thats two now with SC) they begin rationalizing away as to why the poll is suspect or weak.

The fact remains Iggy cannot win the next election. The Libs may win 7 new seats in Quebec but that certainly will not bring them to the promised land. They need at least 40 seats to achieve a minority. There is certainly nothing more for them in the West.

The threat of a coalition will be front and center in the campaign but as hard as Iggy will try to distance himself from the discussion it will keep coming up. Pehaps Iggy already has a deal with the Dippers and maybe the Bloc to try to overturn a Harper minority with the coalition again.

Canadians outside of Quebec didn't like it last time and they won't like it anymore this time.

It is really surprising to see Iggy going for an election when his MPs told him this is not the time, the media are denouncing it along with virtually all the pundits.

Perhaps Iggy finds the role of party leader too confining and wants to get the defeat over with so he can do what he loves.... teaching and writing and sipping lattes.

[updated Wed Sep 09 09:48:14 EDT 2009]

So I see these latest numbers ought to be driving the Harperhaters crazy : has anyone noticed how this PM can drive his left wing nut opponens crazy - it is admirable talent and a trait he shares with a handful of other PM's. Personally I think it is defining trait of what we come to call the ' great PM's ' such as Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien etc. they bought the best and worst of their followers and detractors and each had the capacity to drive their opponents to the point of making the most stupidest of poltical mistakes! This can easily be proven if you clear off the partisan blinkers and just look at the reactions for and against Harper of late. I think that the principle comes down to a leader evoking a strong emotion as let's face it we have had certain PM's who really had little effect on the public and we got rid of them pronto. After all when you hear names like Campbell, Turner, Martin, Day, Clark etc .. it becomes more of an after thought and only goes to re-inforce the old canadian adage that in Canada we have 2 types of leaders boneheads and bast@rds - and we get rid of the boneheads as quick as possible ask Dion - nothing personal here in this stament just a reflection of fact. So the bottom line here is that despite all the comments tha no doubt I will receive to the contrary what we have in harper is one of the great ones and that you can take to the bank a canadian one of course.

[updated Wed Sep 09 11:12:02 EDT 2009]

Wow! A 9% jump in the undecided vote. With more than 1 in five unsure how to vote, this brings a lot of seats in play. How will they jump?

[updated Wed Sep 09 11:24:00 EDT 2009]

Looks like another crazy poll. As a conservative, I would not bet the bank on this one either. I think its closer than it looks. Caution:

In Atlantic Canada the margin of error really comes into play, as the Conservatives have gained 10.5 points to lead with 42%. The Liberals are second, at 39.3%, and the NDP have lost 10.5 points to fall to 17.2%. With only 72 respondents, we'll chalk these numbers up to the MOE.

You know that is inaccurate.

[updated Wed Sep 09 13:38:30 EDT 2009]

I wonder how the next polls will reflect on this video and comments by the harpo:

http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/news/features/harper-...

CBC ran a huge story near the top of their newscast, a few minutes ago, featuring a videotape of the Reformatory leader at a no-media, no-public party gathering in the Sault.

A sampling of what the Cons didn't want you to hear:

· On his claim to be satisfied with a Parliamentary majority: “Let me be clear about this, we need to win a majority in the next election campaign…we need to win a majority…to teach them a lesson.”
· On women, gays and minorities which are helped by a government program: “[They’re] left-wing fringe groups.”
· On gun control: “We are still trying to get rid of that registry…we need a mandate to get that thing passed.”
· On our international allies: “[We don’t poll] the U.N. General Assembly to determine Canada’s foreign policy.”
· On judges: “[They’re] left-wing ideologues.”

[updated Wed Sep 09 22:53:56 EDT 2009]

Latest Ekos/CBC Poll

CPC - 34.2
LPC - 30.8
NDP - 14.8
Bloc - 10.0
Green - 10.1

This pretty much confirms the Nanos Poll except for the Greens, but we have to remember that Nanos does not prompt and Ekos uses and auto-dialer/voice recognition/keypad system. That is likely the reason for the difference in the Green numbers.

What I find interesting is the drop in NDP support from the last election, are they down to their core support or will they continue to slip, or will some of their support return from the LPC? What is the future for Mr. Layton if he continues at this level and it follows thru to a general election?

[updated Thu Sep 10 06:31:36 EDT 2009]

Latest EKOS Poll says:

LIBERALS/TORIES IN DEAD HEAT AS ELECTION LOOMS - September 3, 2009
MUCH TIGHTER RACE THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR

[Ottawa – September 3, 2009] – For the second year running, Canadians head into the Labour Day weekend with talk of a federal election in the air. But this time, neither party has reason to feel confident of the outcome.

This week’s EKOS Research poll, conducted for the CBC, finds the ruling Conservatives in a dead heat with the Liberals. In each of EKOS’s weekly polls through July and August, the race between the two parties has been very, very close.

[updated Thu Sep 10 07:56:28 EDT 2009]

If this liberal bunch force an election, they will likely pay dearly as most people don't want another election, and the liberals are hardly flying high in the polls. The only edge the liberals have is a biased media towards the left leaning view.

Check out www.liberalliar.ca to see the real truth about the liberals.

MT
Ottawa

[updated Thu Sep 10 09:09:43 EDT 2009]

Harper is a liar and a radical right wing idealogue who wants to destroy canada and turn it into a country that Dick Cheney would create. A fascist dictator state. I know, I'm a Tory and I'm warning everyon now that he is a liar and is trying to grab power and destroy the country. That is why he lies so much, he knows no one would vote for him if he told the truth.

[updated Thu Sep 10 09:24:27 EDT 2009]

I was undecided, and did not want an election, but I am voting Liberal, because Harper disgusts me.

I saw the first Harper Liemmercial tonight. Pathetic scare-mongering and lying. the public is not that stupid. After seeing the ugly truth of Harper on the hidden agenda tape. he is about to be Kim Campbell Redux.

[updated Thu Sep 10 22:47:58 EDT 2009]

Can't bury this mess of an economic update. The government has totally mismanaged the recession and is hiding behind a fake threat of a coalition that is not going to happen. Cheap character assasination and scare tactics to cover up thir financial disaster.

Since seeing the hidden agenda video, I will abandoned these incompetent right wing nutbars and will vote Liberal, the last government to manage the economy properly. Ontario remembers the mess Mike Harris caused and we don't need that garbage nationally.

[updated Fri Sep 11 08:47:06 EDT 2009]

I do not mean to be alarmist in suggesting we may be heading for violence. But the actions of this Prime Minster are coming dangerously close to inciting mob rule. Harper is ramping up the heat of his rhetoric by invoking democracy and patriotism and insinuating that his opponents are attacking our democracy and that they are risking the unity of the country for their own gain.
That's fighting talk. In the days ahead, various demonstrations and phone in shows will claim to stand in for the 'Canadian people'. But there is a reason that elections are such highly regulated affairs - they are meant to capture what might get lost in the crowd: dissent, minority opinion, the balance of competing views.

[updated Fri Sep 11 16:49:45 EDT 2009]

One thing is for sure, I'm not Voting for any party that allows China and the Chinese Communist to invest in the Oil Sands, or any other resource company in Canada!

How do you like that!

Call an election now I want to get rid of Flaherty

[updated Fri Sep 11 21:42:02 EDT 2009]

Facts of Liberal EI plan:

http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Sites/PBO-DPB/documents/EI_Estimate_360h_EN.pdf

[updated Sat Sep 12 14:47:17 EDT 2009]

If Nik keeps suspending all these comment makers they will be no on the site what is the big deal, they are only peoples opinions, I guess your scared to upset the minorities, I suggest you read your own polls or polls at the globe and mail, 89% percent of Canadians want full "intergration" into the canadian society and canadian culture.

[updated Sat Sep 12 19:51:09 EDT 2009]

"The Harper Lie Ads"

The signature the ad says is a Ignatieff's signing of the coalition pact is a lie. In fact is it is on a letter to the GG saying the opposition has the confidence of the house. They LIE again.

[updated Sun Sep 13 17:27:53 EDT 2009]

This attack ad crap from Harper is the kind of thing voters do not want to see at this time. Everyone else is trying to avoid it and attempt to change the tone. It appears Harper is nasty to the bone and cannot do anything else but play the schoolyard bully. He is an embarassment to Canada. A disgrace. No one has been as disgusting in their behaviour as this nasty man.

I am not a perfect Christian by any means, but he makes a mockery of his religion with his hypocritical behaviour. I don't know how he faces his Lord. No true Christian would condone such foul and dishonest behaviour, let alone his Saviour. How can he go to church on Sundays and perform character assasinations and be so mean and nasty through the week? It leads one to the only conclusion that he must be a phoney Christian, phoney politician and phoney human being. He sickens me and is an embarassment to the office of the PM.

[updated Sun Sep 13 22:22:16 EDT 2009]

Stephen Harper's Conservative government will go down to defeat in the election that is almost certain to take place this fall for one very solid reason, his party is going to lose too many seats in Ontario and Quebec for it to hang on to power.

Whatever pretty pictures the prime minister and his ministers are trying to paint about the economy, Ontario is deeply in the grip of the recession, with an enormous number of people without jobs, families facing uncertainty and mounting debts, and communities watching key productive facilities shut down.

Ontario is no mood to vote for a government that has never understood the basics of the province's economy, a government that has repeatedly turned up its nose at the very idea of doing anything to help out. As soon as the writs are dropped, the sentiments of Ontarians will become clear even to those covering the campaign for the networks and the newspapers.

Harper's assault on Quebeckers re-opened the deepest wounds in Confederation. What he did has not been lost on the voters of Quebec who now see him as a political leader who has nothing but contempt for them. His party is doomed in Quebec this time.

In the 2008 election, the Conservatives won 51 seats in Ontario and 10 in Quebec. This time, Conservative seats will fall like bowling pins in Central Canada. Expect Conservative losses as well in British Columbia and New Brunswick.

Once the campaign gets underway, the colossal bone headedness of the Harper government is going to do it in. Consider for instance the record of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty who once said he couldn't understand why businesses would want to locate in Ontario, his home province.

Today, the man who could not foresee a deficit, even after the stock market had crashed and the global economy was grinding to a halt, was forecasting a deficit for this year of just under $56 billion with large deficits ahead until the middle of the next decade.

Were it not for the utter weakness of his caucus, it is inexplicable that Stephen Harper would keep a proven incompetent like Flaherty at the helm of the Finance Department.

The Conservatives will do everything they can (including lie and abuse public funds) during the campaign to turn the spotlight away from their own appalling record. In the meantime, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that they are trying to fashion a deal with the "separatists" to stave off their moment of reckoning.

[updated Sun Sep 13 22:53:49 EDT 2009]

Weak Harper caves to socialist left-wing idealogues. Harper has betrayed his conservative principles once again, siding this time with the NDP socialists after much phoney rheteric in a pathetic attempt to shore up his base. It is now obvious the CPC internal polling is bad. Harper's unpopularity with Canadians is now costing the party their dignity and their beliefs.

The Harper government is now being propped up by socialist left-wing idealogues that Harper despises. Harper is an embarassment and disgrace to conservatives. Now we know the party rallying speech in Kitchener was given to sooth party faithful because he knew that this massive failure of conservative principles was on the horizon. Pathetic.

[updated Mon Sep 14 08:24:23 EDT 2009]

Harper's conservatives are back to their sleeze again in the HOC. They are again using members statements to slag Ignatieff personally. They are yelliing their insults in this session, because they know there are no answers allowed to defend themselves from their lies. Sleeze, sleeze and more sleeze.

[updated Mon Sep 14 14:13:37 EDT 2009]

No one cares . Harpo is still a loser fronting a party of losers .
Canadians are stupid .

[updated Tue Sep 15 15:03:01 EDT 2009]