New poll on effectiveness and impact of Ignatieff attack ads

This poll will hopefully be a dagger to the heart of the Harpercrite nasty team. When 50% of your own party supporters think the ads are reflecting badly on the party the revolution is just beginning.
The fact he cannot go positive (because there is nothing positive) and tout his own party's achievements is even more damning.

Time for Harper to order the moving van at 24 Sussex.

[updated Mon Jun 08 03:09:50 EDT 2009]

Ah---those attack ads ! ! ! I believe those negative ads can backfire on the sponsors more times than not. I would be nice if the authors could use a little humour rather than being just downright dirty that most of the electorate can see through. I recall the Chretien crooked mouth personal attack ad that backfired badly showing the sponsor's bad taste, poor judgement and possible lack of cedibility if that was the brand of mud they wished to sling. I wonder if the same writers are still employed by that sponsor?? Looks like it to me.

Recently, in the British Columbia provincial election, the NDP ran a negative campaign on Campbell and the Campbell government policies / record------Campbell was front and centre in their campaign. The Campbell Liberals focused on Campbell too, but positively. Campbell was well advertised to the electorate and won a narrow third victory which is somewhat like winning political gold at the Olympic Games. The NDP failed to positively promote their policies and failed to show how the NDP could be seen to be POSITIVELY different to the current government.

Ignatieff, who was not widely known to the Canadian electorate, will be well known to the electors by the time the election rolls around especially with the frequency we are seeing that negative ad in the West. No doubt, when the election is called, there will be positive Liberal ads focusing on Ignatieff and the Liberal platform. With both the Conservatives and Liberals focusing on Ignatieff, is there a parallel with the recent BC election?????? I believe it is human nature to feel more comfortable with positive people as friends. I tend to avoid negative people and I wonder how many souls feel similarly???

In my opinion, the Harper Conservatives have chosen to skate on thin ice and I believe their current negative position focusing on the opposition is backwards. Possibly the Conservatives should focus on Conservative strong points, assuming they and their writers are not feeling bankrupt in that regard.

[updated Mon Jun 08 03:49:29 EDT 2009]

I think it was too early to do a poll. It is now 10 days old and perhaps didn't capture the full affect of the ads. I think if a poll was done this week, the gap would tighten. This all being said, the full affect of the ads may not be realized until months from now.

Brett

[updated Mon Jun 08 07:12:57 EDT 2009]

IMO attack ads are effective in undermining the support for those who use them.

The attack ads give me a more negative opinion of Harper. It would take away any chance of support for the Conservatives.
It increases my opinion of Ignatieff (sympathy, I guess) but not enough to get my vote.

I don't divorce politics from other forms of human activity. I demand that my political representative behave the same as in any social or personal relationship.
Being decent, fair, honourable is of high requirement, no matter what situation you are in.
being civilized and furthering a higher form of civilization is paramount.
Attack ads only sets us backward. I oppose anyone who uses them.

[updated Mon Jun 08 09:46:51 EDT 2009]

The Liberals don' need to stoop to attack ads. They can sit back and let the C.R.A.P. cabinet ministers attack each other. Raitt in an effort to get herself out of trouble is attacking the minister of Health and saying she is "not very competent" according to the latest reports.Lisa is in the headlines but is hoping we will concentrate on the other incompetent minister.More news about Baird and his attempts to cover up for Raitt while she was head of the Toronto port authority will certainly help Iggy in seat rich GTA. Who needs attack ads? Just let the press report the truth and the C.R.A.P will surely hit the fan.

[updated Mon Jun 08 19:09:05 EDT 2009]

Dear Nik,

I find the questions very interesting regarding the Poll as they lead me to believe they are asking us to identify with our voting intentions regarding this specific AD buy.

I would like to see a Poll asking the information/questions that are raised in the "ADS"

Did you know the leader of the Liberal Party was away for 34 years, most of his adult life?

Yes or No

Do you think being away from Canada for 34 years has any significance in your decision when voting for the next PM?

I would be very interested in what Canadians think about those two very specific questions.

Another question I would love to see asked was if the Liberal leader lost the next election would he leave Canada and return to Harvard?

I am fairly confident if we leave out Party and 'Identity' out the Poll, you might suprise a large number of people. I believe the CPC strategists analyzed what were the biggest areas to exploit, they raise regarding the Liberal leader being "fit" for PM.

I suspect "most" people will continue to vote along with their historical party preference regardless of ads from any political party.

What about the "soft" centre voters. The fight is for the "Radical Centre" voters.

I don't think the AD framing the new leader as an "absentee landowner" are factually incorrect but are asking the question and informing the non-committed voters of the facts regarding his decision to live abroad for most of his adult life.

Some Canadians think having worldly experience and living abroad for 34 years might be a positive.

If you remember Liberal rivals in Montreal raised the exact same questions and comments about his qualifications.

I think chipping away and framing excercises work if they are FACTUAL and resonate with the public.

The famous zinger with Brian Mulroney reminding Canadians that John Turner had a choice regarding the patrongage appointments.

[updated Tue Jun 09 08:35:36 EDT 2009]

Frustration mounts as the Harper crew tank. the wheels are falling off.

John Baird drops the F-bomb on TTC streetcar request
Posted: June 09, 2009, 9:20 AM by Shane Dingman

New leader, new CPC.

[updated Tue Jun 09 11:27:29 EDT 2009]

Why are the Liberal afraid to indentify the four liberals who failed the PBS fundraising test by Iggy?

1)MPs were required to either have 400 party members signed up or a number of party members equal to two per cent of the Liberal vote won in the riding in the last federal election.

2) MPs were either required to have 40 members who paid $10 memberships for the Victory Fund or 10 per cent paid-up members of the total riding association's membership.

Floor crossing, retiring, absent from their riding?

What 4 Liberals arre not playing nice with Iggy and his PBS funding challenge?

http://www.hilltimes.com/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2009/june/8/liberals/&c=2

[updated Tue Jun 09 12:16:06 EDT 2009]

From a former conservative Cheif of Staff:

"Having fired staff myself for embarrassing their ministers, I did not lose any sleep last week over Ms. Raitt's decision to accept the resignation of her director of communications. And I've certainly not changed my mind in light of the latest example of her aide's sloppy work habits. But one of Ms. Raitt's comments on the recorder left behind in a washroom do make me think Mr. Harper would now be well advised to accept the minister's resignation:

"When we win on this, we get all the credit. I'm ready to roll the dice on this. This is an easy one. You know what solves this problem? Money. And if it's just about money, we'll figure it out. It's not a moral issue."

No apology to cancer patients, no nothing. What a disgraceful mess.

New leader, new CPC.

[updated Tue Jun 09 14:54:20 EDT 2009]

New exerpt from the Raitt tapes to be released soon, where she bad mouths Jim Prentice. This thing has legs and it ain't going away. Apparently there is five hours of goodies that are going to be released everyday or so.

Harper should have fired her last week and got it over with. If he had, it would have been a dead issue by now. Now it is going to drag on and drive the party into the ground. Another bad blunder by Harper. Incompetance, failure and sellout.

New leader, new CPC.

[updated Tue Jun 09 21:40:47 EDT 2009]

Ignatieff has blown chance to dethrone Harper

’If Jean Chretien was somehow magically the Liberal leader right now, does anyone doubt that we’d be in an election?’

Says it all.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1126455.html

[updated Wed Jun 10 08:48:21 EDT 2009]

CPC losing Poll # 12 in a row.
Just wait until the Raitt crap is factored in the polls. It's going to get worse. Harper is handing the keys to 24 Sussex to Ignatieff. he doesn't even have to campaign. Harper is doing everything he can to give it to him. New leader time.

Tory support in Ontario sliding: poll
By THE CANADIAN PRESS

10th June 2009, 12:08pm

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests that Conservative support has been eroding in a vital Ontario battleground targeted by all three federalist parties.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the lead the Conservatives enjoyed in the 905 area code of southern Ontario during the last campaign has vanished and the Liberals enjoy a substantial advance in the region.

The Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP have focused the majority of their resources on a handful of truly competitive ridings across the country. The 905 horseshoe of suburban ridings around Toronto stretching down to Niagara Falls are among the most hotly contested.

The poll contacted just over 1,000 people between May 28 and June 8 as part of an omnibus phone survey that is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

On a national basis, voter intentions give the Liberals 35%, the Conservatives 31%, the NDP 15%, the Bloc nine and the Greens 8%.

Across Ontario, where the margin of error is higher, the Liberals have a double-digit edge over the Conservatives.

New leader, new CPC

[updated Thu Jun 11 08:02:55 EDT 2009]

Note to failure Harper: Attack ads failed in Nova Scotia.

Rodney Macdonald was the only candidate to run negative attack ads in the Nova Scotia election. He got punished badly. Attacks don't always work.

New leader, new CPC.

[updated Thu Jun 11 08:05:51 EDT 2009]

Losing poll #13. Its getting worse by the day for Harper. All he has left is the west.

Ekos poll June 10 2009

"For greater perspective, we note that a 12-point Conservative advantage in the October 2008 election has turned to a nearly 5-point Liberal advantage. This is a significant turnaround in a fairly short period of time. Moreover, the modest LPC advantage masks a more significant regional advantage.

The Liberals now have a 10-point advantage in the crucial Ontario battleground and they have moved back to the height of voter support they enjoyed in Quebec when Mr. Chretien was reeling off successive majority governments."

Dump failure Harper before he destroys our party.

New leader, new CPC.

[updated Thu Jun 11 14:08:41 EDT 2009]

Even Alberta is slagging Harper now. They even praise Iggy over Harper. I'm not, they are.

Alberta Tory memo reveals rift with Harper
Jason Fekete, Canwest News Service
Published: Tuesday, June 09, 2009

The talking points, prepared by the provincial Conservative government's caucus office and distributed to party MLAs, argue that federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is doing more to champion the lucrative oil sands than Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

[updated Thu Jun 11 14:25:53 EDT 2009]

More on failure Harper. He is tanking fast.

Raphael Alexander: Stephen Harper's new 'fast-acting' stimulus. Cures recessions before they occur
Posted: June 11, 2009, 3:00 PM by NP Editor
Full Comment Canadian politics, Raphael Alexander

New leader, new CPC

[updated Thu Jun 11 16:32:13 EDT 2009]

Any Reasonable Person Would Say...

It isn't easy taking a decision that could change this country profoundly, either for the better -- or the worst.

Once you've digested 234 pages, you have to keep a number of things in mind:

-voting 71 times with the government meant something;

-voters haven't expressed a burning desire to go to the polls;

-priming the stimulus pump, by necessity, required an efficient and effective flow of funds in a timely manner;

-putting out your own platform is a sacred obligation as an alternative government;

-employment insurance: drawing a line in the sand means eventually crossing it;

-health services and medical isotopes: a government must be held to account as lives potentially hang in the balance;

But a few of the things which must be considered...may God's wisdom shine upon you.

[updated Thu Jun 11 22:37:20 EDT 2009]

"The Liberal leader's bigger problem may be how to back away from an election gracefully."

"Which brings us back to Mr. Ignatieff. A significant chunk of the Liberal caucus wants to bring down the government too, exhilarated by polls like yesterday's from Ekos that suggest that they may be five points ahead of the Conservatives. But, if the Liberal leader decides to pull the plug on Parliament based on such flimsy evidence, it could set up the most delicious revenge for all those Canadians sick of political spin."

"He said he will take a few days to review the mini-budget-like report card and decide whether it is in the interests of Canadian taxpayers to have another election. For some reason, this conjures up the image of Tweedledum and Tweedledee agreeing to have a battle, because Tweedledum said Tweedledee had spoiled his nice new rattle."

"How long does it take anyone not living on the other side of the looking glass to reach the conclusion that another $300-million general election, only eight months after the last one, is not in the interests of anyone, with the possible (though not inevitable) exception of one M. Ignatieff Esq.?"
Slow spending, quick spinning-John Ivison, National Post Published: Friday, June 12, 2009

Another Liberal friendly pundit pointing out Iggy is looking for a way out of his threat to topple the gov't.

[updated Fri Jun 12 08:57:30 EDT 2009]