Close federal race continues - Tories down in Quebec up in Ontario

Nik, this poll confuses me. The libs are up based on the leadership perception Iggy has given the party yet you show him much less popular than Harper. Might it be name recognition only that skewers that survey?

[updated Sat May 02 00:54:29 EDT 2009]

I'm just back from anbothe rday at the Liberal convention where Jean Chretien troe a pretty good strip off Harper and accused him of taking credit for many Liberal policies. It was classic chretien and he had a great effect on the audience.

Dion was feted and given good homage. A very classy send off for him.

Liberals have seriously closed the fund raising gap with all other parties having more than doubled last years funding. The tories lost 10% of theirs while the dippers lost almost 50% in Q1 vs last year.

The convention has been a great liberal love in so far.

[updated Sat May 02 01:47:24 EDT 2009]

It has been a long winter in Canada and not much has happened politically in April as this poll suggests. Ignatieff, and what he stands for, is still relatively unknown across the land. Tactically, the poll says to me that any move toward an election would be very dicey indeed. One can not say that Ignatieff is a fully seasoned politician with his musings regarding a future tax increase to pay down the Harper deficit-----no matter how true. There are better words to describe that goal. Wow---that is like handing the Conservatives ammunition on a silver platter ! ! !

If one agrees with deficits, then Harper has not made such a bad job of the current economic mess acknowledging that we have to follow the US lead in regards to the auto sector. There are other areas that warranted Harper's attention long before the the auto crash such as forestry and they are still screaming for federal help.

Somehow, I believe this is a poll too soon. The poll that will count is the one that shows the Conservatives holding the rural areas in Ontario and BC and moving into the cities of Toronto and Vancouver and the opposite is true for the Liberals----hold the cities and move into the rural areas. Quebec is still the unknown in the fortunes of both the Liberals and Conservatives. Quebec is a political desert for the Conservatives as the West is a political desert for the Liberals. Other than Montreal, is rural Quebec beginning to smile on the Liberals ? ? ? Any movement in those critical areas in the months ahead should be very interesting.

[updated Sat May 02 05:52:18 EDT 2009]

I was a little surprised with the results of this poll. Everything I had been reading and hearing suggested that the Liberals were opening a more significant lead over the conservatives.

I also thought that Ignatieff was already several points ahead of Harper in the leadership poll.

One of the few good things Ignatieff has said so far should have raised his stature but Canadians are either ungenerous or politically uneducated ( the latter I hope) it may have a negative effect. Then Ignatieff stupidly tried to back peddle. I couldn't vote for a party heeded by him anyway. He has too many other negatives.

One course the Conservatives score the highest on unity. There is only one, Harper himself. To any sensible voter that would be a negative.

[updated Sat May 02 07:49:40 EDT 2009]

That *&^%$#@ Is Seriously Cutting Into Our Support In Ontario.

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm pissed off, big time. This poll reveals that he has the momentum in the critical Ontario battleground. His strategy is working -- consistently chipping away at our Liberal support. Hello...

No question about it that this is a flashing warning sign. A serious retool is necessary across Ontario. The organization talent and far more crucially, the strategic talent, has to be taken up several notches.

I don't want this guy making a monkey out of me in the next campaign. In short, a hell of a lot of work has to be done between now and the fall otherwise it seems to me that we will have to reconsider our timetable.

Just look at those numbers -- at 43%, we're down one point. They are up eight points with 39%. Meanwhile, the NDP and Greens are slowly bleeding support. Where is it going? It's either parked in neutral, as opposed to undecided, or more ominously, some of it is going to the Conservatives.

Again, I don't like what I'm seeing. You shouldn't either.

[updated Sat May 02 08:48:29 EDT 2009]

Ignatieff is awesome! That speach was amazing. Sign me up. He has charisma, style and tells it like it is. He is going to be a great Prime Minister. What a wonderful change it will be from the ugly atmosphere at 24 Sussex that we have now. I can't wait for the next election.

[updated Sat May 02 19:56:00 EDT 2009]

To listen to the MSM and of course the Harper haters you would think that the government is down for the count. Nik's poll obviously suggests there are problems for the Conservatives in Quebec but in the rest of the country the government is doing alright. Obviously a poll is a snap shot in time and there is no question the Liberals appear to have some momentum.
However, if the leadership of Iggy and the impact of the global recession were truly affecting the fortunes of the governing party then I would expect the poll numbers should show the Conservatives numbers in the basement. That is not the case because most polls are showing the parties within the margin of error.
The fact that the polls are remaining constant despite the low poll numbers in Quebec shows despite the negative daily diet being fed in the media each day Canadians are supportive of the actions of the government.
Watched Jean LaPierre the other day on TV and he said while there is support for Iggy in Quebec that may not actually translate into votes in an election. Never count the Bloc out. The federal parties have too often done this to their own detriment. Ask Harper about Quebec and the last election for proof.
Iggy has shown that he can still be a master of the gaffe and given time he will surely make them i.e. the increased taxes comment.
Harper is still ahead of Iggy in leadership numbers despite the recession, the huge deficit being created and despite the daily pounding in QP where half truths and misreprestentations are the norm.
Once again it takes all three opposition parties to bring down the government in a non confidence vote. Neither Layton nor Duceppe are going to agree when their own poll numbers are in the tank. Watch for a deal with either Layton or Duceppe in order to ensure the survival of the government. This will allow sufficient time for the Count to introduce policies which he has to defend. Could there be more flip flops on the horizon? Maybe!
Before anybody accuses Harper of working with the Separatists lets face facts. It is one thing to work for the betterment of the country with the Separatists on a file by file basis. It is quite another to hand over the federal government with veto power on all legislation to the Separatists.

[updated Sat May 02 20:09:34 EDT 2009]

Nik....help my comments are being double posted. Can you help?

[updated Sat May 02 21:04:07 EDT 2009]

Political Suicide 101 Manual.

Hi, my name is federal political party "A". As a proponent of assisted-suicide, could you please give me some advice on how I can self-destruct in the next election. Thank you.

Answer: Why don't you prop up Stephen Harper! Remember how leftist voters love the Conservative Party of Canada. Think about how party leadership is soft and shifting in social-democratic circles; cast you mind back to the founding of one party -- the guard dog for one province - getting in bed and making love to the most despised political party in that province does not strike me as playing with a full deck. Might as well just pass the mallet to Michael Ignatieff so he can hammer the other opposition parties right into the ground. It doesn't take long to go from revered to reviled in that province.

Go ahead. Cooperate with Harper. Make my day and watch your party turn to political dust.

[updated Sat May 02 22:07:22 EDT 2009]

That Ongoing Uneasy Conversation In Maine.

It isn't easy being the stimulus package triplets...especially now that Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has returned to the values of his youth -- and the Democrats. Specter said he no longer recognized himself in the Republican party and pointed to the fact that big money was already lining up to support his potential challenger in the primary. (How many Conservatives have told me a very similar story...but I digress!)

What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall as the senior senator, Olympia Snowe confabs with the junior, Susan Collins. Maine is a wonderful place -- known for a warm-hearted, moderate Yankee spirit. No wonder it has such fine senators.

Why am I telling you this? Because I want you to spot the pattern: one of quiet, unassuming, modesty with mutual respect for all and moderation of view. That is the new political reality -- the new normal, both in the United States and Canada.

That's what has rabid Republicans in fits. Even Rush Limbaugh can't stem that tide. No wonder our Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, is in preservation mode. Reminds me of the little Dutch boy and the dike. (Arlen Specter would appreciate that.)

Will the Republican Party eat its own or do what is in its best political interest? Hopefully, Snowe and Collins won't also have to bolt. They are sorely needed right where they are. If they do cross over to the Democrats, that party will be extremely lucky to have them.

Who knows -- if this continues, perhaps even Trent Lott might see the light and the writing on the wall and return to his Democratic roots.

[updated Sun May 03 11:43:37 EDT 2009]

MRM.

I miss our sparring matches. I hope he is not ill. Can anyone give us an update?

[updated Sun May 03 21:57:18 EDT 2009]

Tom Good And Others: Who Won Or Performed Best In The BC Leader's Debate Tonight?

Was it a three-way draw? Or did one leader do better than the other two?

And who will win the provincial election?

[updated Sun May 03 22:59:18 EDT 2009]

Watch The Prime Minister Spell: C A V E.

Our Prime Minister is a man with a short fuse, when he doesn't get his way (which isn't very often). No wonder he was especially testy today. I would be too. His brilliant plan to separate the egg from the yoke has splattered onto the floor.

The Liberals are pushing for a standard temporary 360 hour benchmark for collecting Employment Insurance benefits. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe says if it's good for Quebec, they'll support it. Translation: they're on board.

New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton says he wants to reach an accommodation with the PM -- by that he means that Harper agrees to everything that the NDP has put on the table. Translation: Say uncle, or prepare for an election.

Here's my advice to Stephen Harper -- pick up the phone and set those lines a blazing by letting your fingers do the walking straight to Halifax. Get Premier Rodney MacDonald on the horn. He certainly can tell you now what NOT to do...

Harper will fume and fuss and then he will remember his love for power and his desire to retain it at any cost.

Cornered, he'll cave to avoid an election which he knows ahead of time he can't and won't win.

[updated Mon May 04 21:02:08 EDT 2009]

Here's the second best line of the convention ranking up there with Chretien's speech. "Bob Rae got off one of the best-received lines when he said the current government consists of Mr. Harper, a throne and a mirror."

[updated Tue May 05 06:10:06 EDT 2009]

More bad news for Harper: May 5th The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press gives the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff a five-point lead on the slumping Conservatives, driven in large part by urban and suburban women.

Liberals lead in Ontario, Atlantic, Quebec. Trail in west. Urban vote (80% of the pop) in favour of Liberals, rural (20% of pop) in favour of Tories.

[updated Tue May 05 16:39:33 EDT 2009]