Liberals and Conservatives still close - Trend favours the Liberals at the expense of the NDP

330 comments Latest by Jack

The most recent National Nanos Poll shows that the close race between the Conservatives and Liberals continues (LP 36, CP 33, NDP 13, BQ 10, GP 8)

Looking at the trend since the election, the key takeaway is the steady decline in support for the NDP with those former NDP voters moving to the Liberals. A key strategic trend for the last few years has been the shift between the division and unification of non-Conservative voters. In 2004, NDP supporters shifting to the Liberals resulted in the Liberal minority government. In 2006 and 2008, a split opposition allowed the Harper Conservatives to win. Polling since the 2008 election indicates that there is an inverse trend between Liberals and the New Democrat support.

Also, the Liberals are widening their margin in Ontario and currently are second in Quebec behind the BQ.

On the Best PM front, the Prime Minister maintains his lead over the other federal leaders. However, of note, he ranked third in Quebec behind Ignatieff and Duceppe.

To review the trend line with the detailed regional numbers visit the Nanos Research website.

Methodology

Polling between March 13 and March 18, 2009. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed 1st Choice Voters Only Reported)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos Omnibus Survey conducted in February 2009.

Committed Voters - Canada (N=893, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Liberal Party 36% (+3)
  • Conservative Party 33% (-1)
  • NDP 13% (-3)
  • BQ 10% (NC)
  • Green Party 8% (+1)
  • (*Note: Undecided 11%)

Best Prime Minister Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] The numbers in parentheses denote the change from February 2009.

  • Stephen Harper 33 (+1)
  • Michael Ignatieff 27 (-1)
  • Jack Layton 12 (-2)
  • Gilles Duceppe 6 (+1)
  • Elizabeth May 6 (+1)
  • None of them 7 (NC)
  • Unsure 9 (NC)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

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The most interesting part of this poll is the Ontario poll showing the Libs at 4... more

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks) (Québec) 21 Mar 09:18

Not surprising that the NDP numbers have fallen significantly. With Layton conco... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Mar 08:41

Those numbers don't reveal an appreciable difference form previous polls. An ele... more

Bernie (Ontario) 21 Mar 08:13

I think they are looking for the Marie Antoinette vote! Who would saay such a t... more

Jack (Ontario) 27 Mar 09:18

I believe the only reason Harper has not destroyed the country is because he did... more

Jack (Ontario) 27 Mar 20:18

bert I don't question Nik's numbers. His record speaks for itself. However, I... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Mar 08:54

Comments

gretag

Interesting that the NDP did so well when the Liberals had a leader who championed the environment and shifted the Liberals to the left, whereas under Ignatieff the NDP is losing support to the Liberals. I wonder if this is due to shifts in rural voting patterns where the left-right divide may be less useful than in urban areas?

Anyway, my own view is that Harper is bad for Canada and so the current polling trends make me happy. Support has to shift from both the Conservatives and the NDP in order to replace the Harper government.

[updated Sat Mar 21 07:56:34 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 07:56

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Bernie

Those numbers don't reveal an appreciable difference form previous polls. An election now, or soon, would give us a minority government. The only difference is that it is now possible that it would be Liberal. The trend is not strong enough yet to Liberal supporters much cause for celebration.
As for the best PM I consider that too silly to comment on. Only policy makes a good Pm and neither of these impress me. I don't draw a distinction between Harper and Ignatieff. The budget is Ignatieff's and it is as bad as Harper's.
I see Ignatieff as more honest, straight forward and direct; but that alone does formulate good policy.
If those are the two best that we can produce out of 33 million then we are in a sad state.

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:13:59 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:13

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hollinm

Not surprising that the NDP numbers have fallen significantly. With Layton concocting the coalition arrangement and indicating he would not vote for the budget even before it was delivered has shown Canadians including NDP supporters that Layton and the party have lost their way. Layton's hatred for Harper is overwhelming rational thinking.

As far as the polls are concerned I suspect the Count is being rewarded for not being Dion and having the ability to speak in complete sentences that people can understand.

However, the day will come when the patrician, arrogant elitist who is currently the interim leader of the Liberal party will be exposed for what he is; a carpetbagger who has lived most of his life outside the country and who believes it is his God given right to be PM of Canada.

Canadians do not take kindly to people who talk down to them and who tell them how they should think or feel. The more the country sees of Iggy the less they will warm up to him. Running around the country saying he loves agriculture, the oil sands and will solve crime ridden Manitoba is not an election platform. It simply shows he is a typical Liberal.

There are encouraging signs in the U.S. economy and the worse fear of the Liberal party is that the Canadian economy begins to rebound before Iggy can force an election.

The polls can say whatever they will but there will be no election as long as the best PM numbers belong to Harper and the Liberals are able to put some money in the bank.

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:41:00 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:41

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

The most interesting part of this poll is the Ontario poll showing the Libs at 44% Vs 31% for Harper. This gets into sweep territory.

Harper's slim lead in personal popularity is only there because he retains his very strong support in the west and has slipped badly everywhere else.

I like the trend

[updated Sat Mar 21 09:18:49 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 09:18

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Sammy100

It astounds me that the new “Media Messiah” of the north has not released any policy and will not be having a policy convention in May but continues to trend upwards...amazing. Please let me borrow a line from Sir Winston Churchill.

“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Need I say more

Sam Adair

[updated Sat Mar 21 13:11:23 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 13:11

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Dear Nik,

As a fan of understanding polls and looking at them from a historical snapshot this one reminds me of the same pattern with the previous leader.
Dion win puts Liberals ahead of Tories, poll finds dated Dec 4, 2006.
I am confident you also polled good numbers for Dion when he was selected as their leader.

"When asked which party they would vote for if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Dion came out on top: (percentage-point change from an Oct. 12-15 poll in brackets):

* Liberals: 37 per cent (+5)
* Conservatives: 31 per cent (-1)
* NDP: 14 per cent (-3)
* Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 7 per cent (-2)

In Ontario, the Liberals experienced a 12-point jump, going from 36 per cent to 48 per cent. The Tories dropped a point to 32 per cent. However, in Quebec and the West, the Liberals' numbers were flat.

"The Liberal Party has had almost a week of sustained and generally favourable media coverage, so everybody really expected they would get a bump in the polls," CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said."

Nik we both know how that turned out for the Liberals. I have seen over 100 Polls now with the Liberals from 38% - 26% in vaious Polls.

I am interested in turnout and your analysis in the last 4 elections and your prediction if we will have an increase or another decline in voter participation.

I have not seen any news that would increase the voter turnout or reduce the voter apathy unless a coalition rears its ugly head.

Thanks Nik.

*For all those Liberal Apologists who feel compelled to respond to every thread, don't waste my time. Thanks again.

[updated Sun Mar 22 00:55:13 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 00:55

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Dear Nik,

here is another Poll highlighting the "boost" or bump the Liberals had after selecting their new leader. I think history is repeating itself.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Canadian Liberals Reach 40% After Dion Win
December 10, 2006
Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Liberal 40% +8
CPC 34% -2
NDP 10 % -6
Bloc 8% -2
Green 8% +2

(Source: Ekos Research Associates / Toronto Star
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,022 Canadian adults, conducted on Dec. 5 and Dec. 6, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.)

[updated Sun Mar 22 01:09:08 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 01:09

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Tom Good

Personally, I do not believe the Liberal surge in their traditional stamping grounds is to be unexpected. Numbers may go up and down in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces as Liberal political relevance and credibility waxes and wanes. I must admit that the Liberals are learning from the Conservatives about party management and fund raising. They are making a very deliberate effort to be seen and to listen to the grass roots. Not a strong suite in the past. So, Canada of Confederation seems to be doing as politically expected. Political life is comfortable.

The numbers issues with the NDP and the Greens are reasonably understandable. If either of the two major parties are perceived to be "strong" then the non-core vote for those two parties tends to be "siphoned" away by either strong Conservatives or strong Liberals. The moveable portion of any electorate is the swing voter, and any voter who is not "core" is a swing voter. The Bloc numbers are also vulnerable to the "attraction" to a strong party presence as long as that party has not poked hot sticks into Quebec culture and interests. At the MOMENT, the Liberals are perceived to be gaining strength in Canada of Confederation and the "attraction" of swing voters is beginning much to the concern of the Conservatives. I believe that is ALL we can say for the moment.

Now, the Post-Confederation Canada is the West and we have heard the phrase "THE WEST WANTS IN". It gets wonderful lip-service from Confederation Canada but nothing has changed much in a 100 years. The West, understandably, gets a little testy from time to time, saying "if you are not going to play fairly and justly, then we will create our own party and maybe somebody will listen". Nobody has ever listened as the status quo is comfortable and equality is not. OK, for the non-believers, the West has created the United Farmers Party, the Progressives, the Social Credit, the CCF now the NDP, and the Reform and the Alliance that have become the major components of the current Conservatives----the Government of Canada.

Liberal strength is certainly not in the West and, as is always so as election time approaches, they are mounting a love-in but not offering equality. Conservative strength----at least the Reform element, the Alliance element and a smattering of the Progressive element----is in the West but, strangely, they are not offering equality although they are the government. The NDP, the fighter for the underdog, whose strength lies in the West, have never mentioned political equality. To me, the lack of political equality across Canada is the FATAL FLAW for Liberals, Conservatives and NDP in the governance of modern Canada. Those three parties are all wrapped up in their policies and political personna and are collectively silent on political equality. (Allegedly, Ontario gets 21 new seats at the Quebec ration and there are noises about the west but nothing concrete)

The three parties draw their leadership conventions, policy conventions and what-not from riding associations. If the West is short changed MP seats, thus it follows, the West is short changed on riding association and party delegated too. None of the party leaders as yet, have said anything. What is wrong with Harper, Ignatieff and Layton ? Usually it is one man, one vote and those votes in a democracy should be of equal weight but not in Canada.

So back to the topic of this poll. What do the numbers suggest to me ? If the Liberals are going to form a government, then they have to concentrate on Confederation Canada but their "soft belly" will continue to be the West. If the Conservatives are going to form a majority government, they have to consolidate their strength in the West and recapture the old Progressive Conservatives in Confederation Canada. If they ignore the Progressive Conservative wing of the party, they becone more of a regional party than a national party. If they ignore Quebec, they do so at their own peril like Diefenbaker. The NDP to gain relevance will have to concentrate on their roots in the West and they have more to gain in British Columbia than they do in Quebec.

If Canada was to have equality in governance, then all ridings across Canada would be at the current Quebec ratio of one House of Commons seat for each 103,333 souls.

[updated Sun Mar 22 02:10:21 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 02:10

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Why the Quebec Liberals attempted to bar rivals from entering the leadership race?

Motion would bar prominent MPs from Grit leadership- Fri. Nov. 7 2008

"Quebec officials are recommending that anyone with outstanding debt from the 2006 leadership race be disqualified -- a rule that would hit Gerard Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay, who each owe just under $200,000 from their unsuccessful bids."

"Privately, supporters of Kennedy, Hall Findlay and other camps are furious with Michael Ignatieff, the perceived front-runner whose supporters dominate the Quebec wing's board of directors. The board unanimously approved the submission, which rival camps contend is aimed at erecting barriers to potential candidates through a variety of measures."

Dion, Ignatieff seek debt extensions

Liberal leader Stephane Dion and his deputy, Michael Ignatieff, are seeking extensions from Elections Canada for paying off leadership campaign loans as an 18-month repayment deadline expires at midnight Tuesday. Ottawa Citizen June 2, 2008

[updated Sun Mar 22 16:56:33 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 16:56

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RonaldODowd

President Obama is on 60 Minutes now on CBS.

[updated Sun Mar 22 19:55:19 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 19:55

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Iggy has placed another marker on the Tories by stating he will demand changes to EI today so there will be a focus on retraining when parliament reconvenes today. This is another well timed and strategic move by Iggy.
I believe Iggy gets it politically and knows how to make Harper's underwear just a little tighter. This new Liberal team will make Canadian politics more responsive to the needs of the population as opposed to the narrow populist approach and lousy economic record of the current government.
...................................................
"People are shedding jobs like crazy," Mr. Ignatieff said on CTV's Question Period. "We've got to have a government that steps in and says 'Let's put some floor under this. Let's give people an employment insurance system that allows them to get training for new jobs.' "

Mr. Ignatieff indicated his party would make proposals that could be viewed as a second round of fiscal stimulus. His timeline for Parliament to act coincides with a Liberal-created confidence vote on the Conservative government's performance that will likely be held in June."

[updated Mon Mar 23 05:10:58 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 05:10

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Logo_lg_thumb novadog

I believe all Canadians of all political stripes will agree that Greg Gutfeld of Redeye and his croonies on Fox News are total ASSHOLES!!!!

[updated Mon Mar 23 11:25:47 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 11:25

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Non-aligned in Toronto

The polls remain volatile, and Ignatieff still has to face the "where's the Beef" question. So far he has benefitted from positive press (fawning practically) and a Harper government that has lost it's compass somewhere along the way.

Unless Iggy can come up with a platform of his own, (currently he says less than nothing but votes with the Cons) his newfound support will wither on the vine, and the left centre voters will return to the NDP.

[updated Mon Mar 23 13:47:01 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 13:47

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Jack

Even Tory MP and ex-fighter pilot, Laurie Hawn says the Russian flights were no big deal. More embarrassment for Harper and MacKay's childish behaviour over the flight.

Canada overreacted, Russian envoy says.
BRUCE CHEADLE
The Canadian Press
March 23, 2009 at 7:12 PM EDT

Conservative MP Laurie Hawn, a former Canadian fighter pilot, told the hearing there were 30 Russian flights into North America's zone of interest in 2007-08 — sparking 28 NORAD intercepts, including eight by Canadian jet fighters. Only three provided advance notice.
In a later interview with The Canadian Press, Ms. Hawn said there have actually been 74 Russian flights in all, with just three notifications.

Nonetheless, in contrast to his government's defence minister, Ms. Hawn played down the incidents.

“As we said from the start, these kinds of operations are routine,” the Edmonton MP said.
“I've been involved in them in my air force career. These things happen in what is international airspace.”

Routine notification about flights, added Hawn, “is just simply not true and I know that from my personal experience going back several decades — but it's not a big deal.”

[updated Mon Mar 23 20:14:24 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 20:14

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

I think this should provide impetus to Iggy's aspirations and help his polls even more:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090324.wignatieff24/BNStory/politics/home

"Mr. Rossi, the party's national director whose background is fundraising, predicted yesterday that total donations for the first quarter of 2009 "will be significantly better than the first quarter last year, despite the recession ..." He will not release numbers until the end of this quarter."
....................................................
This also puts to the lie some of the unfounded comments here about Liberal party fiscal health.

[updated Tue Mar 24 06:46:53 EDT 2009]

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24 Mar 06:46

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RonaldODowd

Finding Just The Right Brink.

Politics is one tough slog. Reality often doesn't count while perception tends to be the name of the game. Scoring cheap political points often is more important than reflecting the facts -- not to mention solving the enormous problems affecting Canadians during this period of severe economic turmoil.

Take the 3 billion dollar spending fund which was passed by Parliament today with Conservative and Liberal support. The Conservatives deemed it a matter of confidence while Liberals insisted prior to the vote on getting the details on how the money would be spent. None were forthcoming.

Once again, Canadians were treated to the political spectacle of another brink too far. One more perfect example of shadow boxing both by the government and the main opposition party. It isn't easy for parties to pick their spot -- it requires enormous courage of behalf of all parties to subject voters to another unwanted election. Hence the come down from the barricades.

The Conservatives will argue that this is simply another fine example of Liberal leadership failure. Conversely, Liberals will make the case that they will indeed dig through the spending particulars in committees, thus continuing to hold this government to account.

Brinkmanship is not like crying wolf. It is not intended as a repeat exercise. Both parties are well positioned on the pot but neither has the political will to drop it...call it the latest play in a phony war -- the defecate stalemate.

Political credibility is on the line. Canadians are waiting for someone to blink at the right breach. Now there's the rub -- an election if necessary, but not necessarily an election. Somewhere, William Lyon Mackenzie King is not smiling.

Time to identify the right brink and then trigger it. If that means an election tomorrow, so be it. If instead, we head into an election this summer or fall, or even in 2010, then let's have it. But please, put a damper on the political nonsense.

Lay down your political marker and stick to it. It is up to each side to have enough guts to act to win that coveted majority government. Make up your minds and do something about it. Identify the brink and then for god's sake cross over it. Canada deserves better than this.

[updated Tue Mar 24 21:26:36 EDT 2009]

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24 Mar 21:26

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Jack

Who's folding like a tent? Stephen Harper the conservative sell-out.

By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN
Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Indeed, Harper's breathtaking, opportunistic conversion to "liberal" economics in order to fight the recession -- big spending, big deficits -- has left many Reform conservatives wondering what happened to their party.

Who'll win? Who knows? But I think Harper has a tougher road than Ignatieff because he's offended more core Conservatives in moving to the centre, than Ignatieff has core Liberals.

[updated Wed Mar 25 07:46:02 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 07:46

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Jack

Harper can't win a majority. Period. His career will be over after the next election.

The Conservatives are down and out in Quebec – and know it
JEFFREY SIMPSON

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
March 25, 2009 at 12:00 AM EDT

Something quiet but profound has altered the Harper government's political strategy: Quebec doesn't cut it any more.

Part of Quebec's complaint was the Harper government's cap on equalization's growth, a change that will help Ontario, the paymaster that can't afford the bill any more but can't get up from the table without paying it.

[updated Wed Mar 25 08:29:24 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 08:29

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Jack

Harper and his phoney accountability. Every conservative should be outraged by this!

Programs for seniors filled with 'pork':MP
Only one grant goes to riding not held by Tories

David Akin, Canwest News Service
Published: Tuesday, March 24, 2009

In Richmond, B. C., senior citizens are getting $18,500 from the federal government to hold a few "intergenerational" movie nights.

In Denzil, Sask., a seniors club will receive $25,000 to form an exercise club.

And in Beauval, Sask. -- where the most recent census found just 86 people who were over the age of 60 -- the federal government has set aside $20,000 so those seniors can teach others native bead work, dancing and storytelling.

[updated Wed Mar 25 09:40:24 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 09:40

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Bernie

I am not a good writer, so I'll take the liberty to attach a poem which better expresses a thought I have about the four parties that make up our HoC. and I apologize to any who may be offended.
I see the parties represented in the poem as; Cons. (the wolf), Libs.(the fox) NDP(the cat) and Bloc (the spider)
They spend their time criticizing the actions of the others parties, but when in the same position they do exactly the same things that they just comdemned.

The Fox And The Cat

The Fox and the Cat as they traveled one day,
With moral discourses cut shorter the way.
"Tis great," says the Fox, "to make justice our guide."
"How Godlike is mercy!" Grimalkin replied.
While thus they proceeded, a Wolf from the wood,
Impatient of hunger and thirsting for blood,

Rushed forth--as he saw the dull shepherd asleep--
And seized for his supper an innocent sheep.
"In vain, wretched victim, for mercy you bleat;
When mutton's at hand," says the Wolf, "I must eat".

The Cat was astonished; the Fox stood aghast,
To see the fell beast at his bloody repast.
"What a wretch!" says the Cat. "Tis the vilest of brutes!
Does he feed upon flesh when there's herbage and roots?"

Cries the Fox: "While our oaks give us acorns so good,
What a tyrant is this, to spill innocent blood!"
Well onward they marched, and they moralized still,
Till they came where some poultry picked chaff by a mill;

Sly Reynard surveyed them with gluttonous eyes,
And made, spite of morals, a pullet his prize.
A mouse, too, that chanced from her covert to stray,
The greedy Grimalkin secured as her prey.

A Spider, that sat in her web on the wall,
Perceived the poor victims, and pitied their fall:
She cried, "Of such murders how guiltless am I!"
Then ran to regale on a new-taken fly.

~ j Cunningham~

[updated Wed Mar 25 09:50:49 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 09:50

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elf

what I find interesting about these lastest numbers is the fact that Iggy is not putting forward any real policies at this point, yet people seem so darned happy to have a leader who can actually give Harper a taste of his own medicine that they are prepared to take him as their leader on trust that he will promote traditional Liberal values. He is getting some flack for not putting forward his policies and openly expressing his opinions however I think he is playing a very wise game here. In the past the Harper CONs have stolen Liberal policies ( eg the green retro-fit for homes etc. ) and have put them forward as their own and taken credit for them - Harper doesn't seem to mind playing a nasty game of politics. Liberals feel disenchanted with the leadership of Mr Dion even though we all admire him as a man we found he was definitely not strong enough against a politician like Harper - Iggy is like a gift from the almighty !! Yes he has some issues and I feel they will be ironed out easily and Canadians get to know him better but I think he will prove to be a strong and likeable leader and I am prepared like many to give him the benefit of the doubt and my complete support.

[updated Wed Mar 25 10:33:34 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 10:33

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Jack

Who cares if it wrecks the justice system as long as it changes the channel from the economy to crime, crime, crime all the time. Just get it out.

There's going to be parade of crime crap coming from Harper now he knows he has lost Quebec for good. It's all he has.

CTV legal analyst Steven Skurka called the legislation a "huge mistake."

"If there is a problem, and I don't accept that there is one, the answer is to pour more money into the justice system and to get in-custody trials on sooner," Skurka said.
He said the legislation would put huge demands on the justice system.

"I don't think this has been thought through at all," he said.
"It sounds like it's been decided on anecdotes rather than empirical studies."

Desperation to do something, anything other than the economy is showing.

[updated Wed Mar 25 11:04:42 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 11:04

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Tory arrogance at its best;
Sheila Fraser, the Auditor-General, said she thinks it is "not unreasonable" for the Conservatives to give MPs a list of programs to be financed with the $3-billion.

"I must say I don't buy the argument that they can't tell them something," she told the Ottawa Citizen this week.

Me neither. We are in uncharted territory here-- spending between April and the end of June is usually detailed in the previous year's Estimates documents. The exceptional economic circumstances mean an unprecedented surge in government spending that can't be detailed in the normal fashion.

Still, $3-billion is a lot of money to take at face value the Conservative pledge that it will all be spent in a prudent and non-partisan fashion. It's a lesson of political history that governments tend to appoint their friends and spend money in their own ridings.

As one Tory said when asked for an elegant solution to the problem of potential pork-barreling: "Vote Conservative!"

[updated Wed Mar 25 18:26:19 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 18:26

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Logo_lg_thumb novadog

I thought the new Liberal website (www.onprobation.ca) was pretty good, then I tried (www.onprobation.com) and I thought it was hilarious.

[updated Wed Mar 25 18:40:49 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 18:40

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Jack

Harper sets this guy up as a non-partisan watchdog. Now he won't say what he wants, he is blocking him from getting information and cutting his department funding. An attempt to muzzle him and hide Harper's gross mismanagement of the economy. If that doesn't work watch him get fired or eliminate the job as a prudent cost savings to the taxpayer.

The Canadian Press

March 25, 2009 at 4:33 PM EDT

OTTAWA — Canada's budget watchdog says the federal government is likely to fall about $9-billion further into the hole over the next two years than the budget projected in January.

Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page told a Commons committee Wednesday that the economy has deteriorated so much since the January budget that any stimulus from increased government spending will have been swamped by lower growth.

"If we were going to have a recession it would have happened by now" Stephen "Good Call" Harper.

[updated Wed Mar 25 21:37:27 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 21:37

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Jack

Watchdog gets punished by Harper for telling the truth. Harper hiding the real numbers.

Updated Wed. Mar. 25 2009 10:06 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff

Page, who is Canada's independent economic watchdog and was appointed by the prime minister last year, has been heavily criticized by Conservative MPs for his dire predictions.

Page's last series of forecasts appear to be accurate, including his last deficit prediction. But in the future, he may have a more difficult time carrying out his Parliamentary duties -- the government has said it will slash his office budget by more than $1 million.

Page's last series of forecasts appear to be accurate, including his last deficit prediction. But in the future, he may have a more difficult time carrying out his Parliamentary duties -- the government has said it will slash his office budget by more than $1 million.

[updated Thu Mar 26 08:28:22 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 08:28

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Jack

Conservatives trying to cover up how bad economy is. Hiding information from their self-appointed, non-partisan watchdog. Desperation is setting in.

Tories' rosy forecast outdated, budget officer says Conservative MPs accuse watchdog of being 'alarmist'

STEVEN CHASE
March 26, 2009

One senior Tory MP even chided Mr. Page for his choice of words because he used the verb "plunge" in a recent report to describe a 15.3-per-cent drop in Canada's gross domestic income for the last quarter of 2008.

He generated further heartburn for the Tories when he questioned part of the Harper government's plan to reduce deficits. Responding to an opposition MP's question, Mr.

Page said it was unrealistic, given the deteriorating economy, for the Tory government to count on earning $2-billion in revenue this year by selling off Crown assets.

Yesterday he told MPs that he's also having difficulty getting the federal Finance Department to provide him the raw financial data he needs for his analysis and forecasting.

[updated Thu Mar 26 08:29:23 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 08:29

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Jack

Harper folds like a tent under pressure, and will revise his false economic forcast. Stop fudging the numbers Harper and tell the truth.

Ottawa ready to revise budget forecasts: Harper
Reuters Published: Thursday, March 26, 2009

Chris Wattie/Reuters

"We are in a period of enormous uncertainty where projections are changing extremely rapidly ... (we) will consult with various private forecasters as we go through, revise our forecasts, see if we ..."

OTTAWA -- The Canadian government is prepared to revise the economic forecasts and plans it made in its Jan 27 budget, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday, citing the rapidly unfolding financial crisis.

[updated Thu Mar 26 17:02:16 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 17:02

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Jack

No one can believe this is serious, but it is. Conservative Senator says geese, which are a health hazard, should be fed to the poor. Are the Tories are losing their minds. Off with their heads.

OTTAWA–Let them eat geese.

A suggestion by Conservative Senator Nancy Ruth this week that Canada geese be used to feed the poor ruffled feathers on Parliament Hill yesterday.

"Given that this is a Conservative plan, I am surprised they have not suggested to raffle off handguns, let them shoot, and then let the poor people have the geese," said Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton-Canso). "We all know that Tory times are tough times, but where will it stop, squirrel burgers, pigeon McNuggets, gopher burritos, maybe beavertails made from real beaver tails?" he said in the Commons.

"We should shoot some of these geese or feed them to the poor, that would be my preference," Nancy Ruth told senior officials of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency appearing at the Senate finance committee to discuss the agency's budget for the next fiscal year.

"The Canada goose is a health hazard," Ruth added, explaining fecal waste runs into the lake and causes skin irritation known as swimmer's itch.

[updated Thu Mar 26 21:26:56 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 21:26

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elf

I do have difficulty understanding how so many would support the Liberals and yet still think Harper is the best PM - how does that gel ? In my book he has been the very worst PM - even worse than Mulroney ( forgive me ) - I'm serious - he has been the most power hungry PM ever - he is unemotional, has no integrity and on the world stage certainly the most embarassing -

[updated Fri Mar 27 16:32:59 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 16:32

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Jack

I'll second that.

[updated Fri Mar 27 16:50:20 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 16:50

larryl

Elf. Sorry to disagree but no one could possibly be worse than Lyin Brian. We will be suffering from what he did to us and has been out of office for 16 years. If this country splits up because of Harper then he will have passed Mulroney. That is one of his goals IMHO.

[updated Fri Mar 27 18:15:35 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 18:15

Jack

I believe the only reason Harper has not destroyed the country is because he did not get a majority.

[updated Fri Mar 27 20:18:05 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 20:18

larryl

Jack. Unfortunately he is still not finished what he started out to do.Too many people like you were fooled by the C.RA.P. That's Conservative Reform Alliance Party that was created because Lyin Brian destroying the P.C. party. There are many things Mulroney is responsible for but never gets blamed for.Harper is a distant second when it comes to being the worst P.M. ever.

[updated Fri Mar 27 20:37:41 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 20:37

larryl

Jack. Unfortunately he is still not finished what he started out to do.Too many people like you were fooled by the C.RA.P. That's Conservative Reform Alliance Party that was created because Lyin Brian destroying the P.C. party. There are many things Mulroney is responsible for but never gets blamed for.Harper is a distant second when it comes to being the worst P.M. ever.

[updated Fri Mar 27 20:37:41 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 20:37

Jack

April is going to be your month, because the Mulroney/Schreiber freakshow starts in a week.

[updated Sat Mar 28 01:13:21 EDT 2009]

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28 Mar 01:13

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Here's another dagger in harper's heart. His own people have started running to replace him:
http://www.ottawasun.com/News/Columnists/Weston_Greg/2009/03/28/8922356-sun.html

tick tock the wicked PM is nearly gone.

[updated Sun Mar 29 10:50:02 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 10:50

larryl

Syld. If Weston is right the Conservatives don't have much to offer. Another Calgarian born in Ontario or a former Mulroney cabinet minister who changed parties are front runners. John Charest is not that well liked in Quebec federal political circles. He like Chretien kept winning because there was no viable alternative . Maybe Belinda could make a comeback since she abandonned the Conservatives because of Harper and she was right in doing it as we have seen.

[updated Sun Mar 29 11:29:17 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 11:29

Jack

What I have been saying all along. He will lose the next election, that is in stone, so yes, its a matter of time. Sooner the better.

[updated Sun Mar 29 15:59:49 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 15:59

Sammy100

If you rate Harper the worst, then how wold you rate Trudeau or Chretien?

[updated Sun Mar 29 14:49:47 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 14:49

larryl

Sammy. Isn't the answer rather obvious. Trudeau was the longest serving P.M. ever and Chretien won three majorities in a row. They were miles ahead of Harper in any aspect according to the voters which is the only thing that matters. You probably believe Lyin Brian was not as corrupt as any politician in our history. Hopefully we will finally find out soon from the inquiry that is about to start just how bad he really was. Harper may call another election to protect Mulroney's reputation. When the truth finally comes out the Conservative party will be destroyed again by Mulroney and his cronies.

[updated Sun Mar 29 15:50:07 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 15:50

Sammy100

Larryl, I have to disagree with you on that one. I think Chretien will earn that dubious distinction. He presided over the best political kick back scheme in Canadian history, rivaled by politicians and organized crime the world over.

Problem is you can’t get the proof, any proof on “The Little Crook From Shawinagan”

[updated Mon Mar 30 15:38:10 EDT 2009]

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30 Mar 15:38

larryl

Sammy . Did our first P.M. slip your memory when it comes to kickback schemes. The CPR is owner and still profiting from that little deal. Every politician since Johnny Mac has lined their pockets or the wallets of their friends and that will continue. We might not have the proof required in a court of law but it did happen and nothing can change that. I am watching with bated breath the inquiry that started again this morning but sure won't hold that breath until they figure out how corrupt Lyin Brian really was. Stevie Cameron had it right in her expose and Mulroney not suing her speaks volumes as to his culpability.

[updated Mon Mar 30 16:03:05 EDT 2009]

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30 Mar 16:03

Sammy100

Larryl, you might be the only one watching, no one cares. If the Liberals think this is going to lead them to the Promised Land they are mistaken. This happened 20 years ago. It’s funny how the Lieberals want us to move on from Adscam but they still want to stir the Mulroney pot.

Remember the general public thinks all politicians come from the same pile, including Iggy, Harper, all of them.

[updated Tue Mar 31 12:43:46 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 12:43

larryl

Sammy . The inquiry is still going on. Adscam is over and done with . Most people thought the Liberals were the scum of the earth and it cost them dearly at the polls . When the truth comes out about Mulroney and Airbus plus all the other money they stole Lyin Brian will destroy the Conservative party again. You seem to think people are too stupid to see the difference between funneling money into the party coffers rather than into the pockets of former P.C. premiers and P.M.s. We love scandals and the interest will grow the more is revealed.

[updated Tue Mar 31 14:19:16 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 14:19

Sammy100

Larryl, Adscam was current with the government of the day. If I am not mistaken the RCMP are still planning on laying charges, they are just waiting to see who sings. And also the people of Canada want to know where the 100M are. Could it be it is being used to silence any would be canaries?

Airbus on the other hand has nothing to do with Harper or the modern day Conservatives. It happened 20 years ago. So there is no association with Harper and Mulroney. The Canadian people see it for what it is a witch hunt manufactured by the Liberals, because they have no policies and are bankrupt morally as well as financial. I watched a little bit of it last year, don’t remember the Liberals guys name, but he made a fool out of himself. This guy should have been deported last year. Just remember the more plays time this gets the more Adscam will come up.

“WHERE’S THE 100 MILLION”

[updated Tue Mar 31 17:15:27 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 17:15

larryl

Sammy. Why is it Conservatives claim there is a 100 milliom missing when the auditor only found 60 missing . The ad firms stole the money and that was proven long ago but Conservatives refuse to admit that. Because Mulroney and Moores got away with accepting bribes 20 years ago doesn't make them any less guilty. The party in power reaps the ill gotten benefits influence peddling and it should be stopped but we shouldn't hold our breath. That is what politics and politicians are all about. The P.M.'s salary is about a quarter million yet CEO's make millions and get huge severance packages even if they resign. Are our elected reps doing out of the goodness of their hearts or for what they get from lobbyists. Are lobbyists doing what they do for nothing. Neither would exist without the other. The strange thing is most of us know it is happening but let it continue.

[updated Tue Mar 31 17:31:47 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 17:31

Sammy100

larryl, that's it in a nutshell, we know it's happening and let it continue.

[updated Wed Apr 01 14:57:38 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 14:57

larryl

Sammy. Until we investigate and then prosecute it will go on. Accepting bribes in envelopes and not paying taxes in a timely manner should be exposed no matter how long it takes . Maybe the next guy will think twice before doing the same thing.We allowed Chretien to cancel the helicopter deal which cost taxpayers half a billion. Mulroney cancelled a deal to buy aircraft and that cost us 100 million. He then spent 5 billion on a new deal so how much do you think the kickbacks were on that little scam? Most Conservatives think that was ok but a missing 60 million for ads is a major crime. Double standard ????????

[updated Wed Apr 01 15:21:22 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 15:21

Sammy100

Larryl, whatever Mulroney and his pals grabbed in 10 years, I am sure they have major catching up to do with “ The Sleaze Machine”

[updated Thu Apr 02 14:31:17 EDT 2009]

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02 Apr 14:31

larryl

Sammy. That is the problem isn't it? We don't know how much they got away with. He actually cost us more after he left office. Did you ever wonder why the banks profits soared after 1993. He made changes to the bank act that nobody even noticed. They were creating money out of thin air and still are. He sold out the country with the free trade deal. The revenue neutral GST has cost us about 30 billion a year for the last 15 years . We have paid over a trillion dollars in interest on the national debt that he should have at least stopped the growth of if he really was a fiscal conservative but his budget deficits got bigger every year he was there and the last one was 42 billion. Amazing what selective memory people have when they practice partisan politics.

[updated Thu Apr 02 14:41:23 EDT 2009]

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02 Apr 14:41

Sammy100

larryl, it is difficult to defend Mulroney and I definitely am not trying to. I don’t have all the numbers but Trudeau left a mess. Mulroney definitely added to the debt but not to the extent of Trudeau. Some people are saying Trudeau was the beginning of the end for this country. Agree or disagree you have to give some thought.

In terms of the free trade deal, in my opinion, I though it was good foresight, just look at the EU and the bigger trading blocks these days. The free trade agreement was great for Ontario and they had unprecedented growth for a decade. The GST was a must to pay down the debt, and that bas___d Creitien knew it and had no intention of scrapping it, although that was his main election platform.

If I am not mistaken Harper’s crew paid off 47 Billion in three years, even if they give it all back they are right back where they began. You got “say anything Iggy” (I won’t even mention the other guy) spend more, the initial stimulus money starts rolling out April 1, let’s see what this does before we dole out anymore.

The thing is larryl, I am not a tribal voter, I do not vote based on how I voted last time or whatever, but look at the issues and make my decision based on what’s good for me and the country as a whole. If more people dug into the issues and voted accordingly, politicians would know this and ultimately we would be the winners because we would end up with responsible government.

As far as Harper goes, I am sure he does not believe that you can spend your way out of this thing and I personally hope the money rolls out real slow. But if he showed fiscal responsibility the media would crucify him just like they did with the photo op thing at the G20, give me a break. With respect to Iggy from what I have seen and heard he believes in small government, and sounds more conservative than a liberal. But unfortunately he has to say what will get him elected.

As far as partisanship, most people on this board are all starry eyed over Iggy, 1) who is he? 2) what’s he going to do...and please, don’t give me anything is better than Waldo.

[updated Fri Apr 03 20:43:48 EDT 2009]

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03 Apr 20:43

larryl

Sammy. You are wrong on two counts. The debt when Trudeau left office was 190 billion. Every country in the world went into debt because of the OPEC crisis. When Mulroney left the debt had grown to 600 billion and you said there was 10 years of unprecedented growth so why did Lyin Brian not do what Conservatives are supposed to do and reduce government spending during that time. A trillion dollars in interest sure would have paid for a lot of government programs. Trudeau was a multi millionaire before he was elected and didn't need to steal from us. Mulroney became a millionaire after he left office because of kickbacks he received for all the favors he did while in office. If you change your vote like you change your socks , you have no ideals to live up .PET was a socialist and that is why I voted for him.

[updated Fri Apr 03 21:02:20 EDT 2009]

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03 Apr 21:02

Sammy100

Larryl, why is your guy praising him ?ihttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090406.wdiscipline0406/BNStory/politics/homes

[updated Tue Apr 07 09:47:50 EDT 2009]

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07 Apr 09:47

larryl

Sammy. When your enemies are fighting with each other it might make sense to fan the flames. Besides Iggy is not my guy. I might support him because he is the only one who has a chance to defeat Pinnochio. If Rae was leader I would definitely support him since he is a socialist at heart. We need to go back to a more left of center government. Let's put some of the burden of funding the government back on the Corporations. Are you not sick of corporate welfare being dolled out by Harper and supported by Iggy?

[updated Tue Apr 07 10:38:38 EDT 2009]

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07 Apr 10:38

Sammy100

larryl, I might not agree with socialism...but I respect you for having the courage and conviction to state what your position is. What bothers me is that no one declares what they really are. We should have two clear and uncut choices...slightly right of centre or slightly left of centre.

The unfortunate thing is that their positions seem to be... whatever will get us elected.

[updated Tue Apr 07 19:17:01 EDT 2009]

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07 Apr 19:17

larryl

Sammy. Most people believe in socialism ,they just don't know it . If you donate to charities ,that is a form of socialism. Publicly funded schools ,health care and education are all socialist ideas. If you don't think we should help people in need then you are an evil capitalist . Even the filthy rich give to hospitals and universities and it is not only because they feel guilty or they want their name on the wall. We are not all heartless s.o.b's are we?There is a huge difference between Socialism and communism but most have been brainwashed to think they are the same. The greatest threat to capitalism is socialism.How many socialist countries start wars or invade other countries?

[updated Tue Apr 07 19:55:49 EDT 2009]

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07 Apr 19:55

Jack

"Say anything Iggy" I am not defending that as I do not agree with the liberals anyway. However, Harper is definitely a say anything politician. He has flip-flopped and not told the truth so many times it is a joke. Many of the times he does not tell the truth, he knows full well what he is doing so and even repeats it when he is called on it. Its a disgrace.

Harper paid down 47 billion and we are not going to be even. The deficit is going to be well over 100 billion, if the recession ends in a few months (unlikely). That is a shortfall of at least 60 billion. Very bad economic management. He continues to brag solely about the banking regulations in Canada which were implemented by Martin. He has nothing of his own he can tell the public, because his extreme views (read his crap and negative feelings about Canada from the NCC website) would put him in single digits at the polls.

Yes, Harper does not believe in spending his way out of the deficit. However, he would not have had to do so if he had not screwed up the economic update with his juvenile games. He would have been able to table a tight budget before the recession was obviously going to be bad. This blunder caused him to have to table that mess of a budget. It is all his fault.

The problem with Harper is we know him all too well. He is terribly dishonest, is extremely hypocritical and has no shame for his juivenile and dirty tricks.

Since I am a conservative with many conservative friends who think as I do, you cannot chalk up my opinions to partisanship. There are a growing number of conservatives who have had enough of his embarrassing crap and want a new leader.

What is he going to do? Well, at this point he has boxed himself in. He either is defeated at the polls (he will not win a majority and another minority would not last long) or he resigns. Someone who is thinking about the party would resign and give someone else a chance to win the majority he could not even get against the weakest opponent in Canadian history. That was pathetic and everyone knows it. It should have been a massive majority landslide and it would have been, if it were not for Harper.

This time there are going to be many conservatives sitting on their hands if Harper runs again and it will be a disaster if he stays to run again.

[updated Sat Apr 04 00:00:12 EDT 2009]

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04 Apr 00:00

Jack

With a heavy heart I'd rate them slightly higher. Which is a huge disgrace, not an endorsement of those Liberals.

[updated Sun Mar 29 15:59:00 EDT 2009]

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29 Mar 15:59

elf

Jack - I was somewhere else in the Trudeau era and all i can tell you is that from another country everyone thought he was a great PM for Canada. That often happens, what the rest of the world sees is not necessarily what the country itself sees. Chretien I admit may not have been my favourite PM for a few reasons however that does not negate the fact that if it hadn't been for him and Mr Martin we would have just as much of a banking mess as the US - they have protected us with their wise decisions and Harper is now riding on their good judgement taking all the credit for the Canadian banking system that the Libs founded. And Mr Chretien showed he had real gonads when he refused to go along with George ndand invade Iraq - Harper wanted to go in and then he called Chretien all kinds of names including coward for not joining in that mess. Those decisions will go down in history and will help people see Mr Chretien as a very wise leader for Canada.

[updated Mon Mar 30 13:27:45 EDT 2009]

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30 Mar 13:27

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

To those who still think the Liberals are broke:
http://www.warrenkinsella.com/comments.php?y=09&m=04&entry=entry090401-223600

A million bucks...that's what the Liberal Party raised, tonight, at the dinner at the Royal York: more than a million bucks. The event was organized by Belinda Stronach and Frank McKenna, and the place was packed. Tables filled every available inch of space. There were Liberals hanging from the rafters - but I saw quite a few Tories, too, present to check out the new guy.

The new guy didn't disappoint. Bob Rae did the intro, Dom LeBlanc did the thank you, and Michael Ignatieff mocked the Reformatories - down in "a basement" somewhere, as he put it, poring through his 16 books, frantically looking for something to use in an attack ad. If he had known how much time they'd spend on it, he said, "I would've written a few more books."

Man oh man, this guy is so going to be Prime Minister.

[updated Thu Apr 02 07:23:24 EDT 2009]

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02 Apr 07:23

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Here's why Iggy will be PM sooner than later:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/fp/Harper+economic+stimulus+exhausted+before+release+think+tank+says/1467612/story.html

"OTTAWA — Rapid contractions of both the Canadian economy and the job market eclipsed the Harper government’s stimulus package before the first dollar was dispensed, an economic think-tank says in study to be released Monday.

The study by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives says the stimulus package laid out in the Jan. 27 budget was too small, too late and failed to direct the money where Canadians would get the most bang for their buck.

“The size of the federal government’s stimulus package is out of proportion to the threat that Canadians are currently facing and have already endured,” says the report, entitled Too Little Too Late."
..........................................................................................

The title hits in dead on. these guys were more more concerned with survivial and killing off the Liberals instead of doing the stimulus planning last fall when they really did know the economy was tanking.

This further highlights the unethical stupidity that manages the Tory party.

[updated Mon Apr 06 06:53:18 EDT 2009]

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06 Apr 06:53

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