Liberals and Conservatives still close - Trend favours the Liberals at the expense of the NDP

330 comments Latest by Jack

The most recent National Nanos Poll shows that the close race between the Conservatives and Liberals continues (LP 36, CP 33, NDP 13, BQ 10, GP 8)

Looking at the trend since the election, the key takeaway is the steady decline in support for the NDP with those former NDP voters moving to the Liberals. A key strategic trend for the last few years has been the shift between the division and unification of non-Conservative voters. In 2004, NDP supporters shifting to the Liberals resulted in the Liberal minority government. In 2006 and 2008, a split opposition allowed the Harper Conservatives to win. Polling since the 2008 election indicates that there is an inverse trend between Liberals and the New Democrat support.

Also, the Liberals are widening their margin in Ontario and currently are second in Quebec behind the BQ.

On the Best PM front, the Prime Minister maintains his lead over the other federal leaders. However, of note, he ranked third in Quebec behind Ignatieff and Duceppe.

To review the trend line with the detailed regional numbers visit the Nanos Research website.

Methodology

Polling between March 13 and March 18, 2009. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed 1st Choice Voters Only Reported)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos Omnibus Survey conducted in February 2009.

Committed Voters - Canada (N=893, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Liberal Party 36% (+3)
  • Conservative Party 33% (-1)
  • NDP 13% (-3)
  • BQ 10% (NC)
  • Green Party 8% (+1)
  • (*Note: Undecided 11%)

Best Prime Minister Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] The numbers in parentheses denote the change from February 2009.

  • Stephen Harper 33 (+1)
  • Michael Ignatieff 27 (-1)
  • Jack Layton 12 (-2)
  • Gilles Duceppe 6 (+1)
  • Elizabeth May 6 (+1)
  • None of them 7 (NC)
  • Unsure 9 (NC)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard

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The most interesting part of this poll is the Ontario poll showing the Libs at 4... more

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks) (Québec) 21 Mar 09:18

Not surprising that the NDP numbers have fallen significantly. With Layton conco... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Mar 08:41

Those numbers don't reveal an appreciable difference form previous polls. An ele... more

Bernie (Ontario) 21 Mar 08:13

I think they are looking for the Marie Antoinette vote! Who would saay such a t... more

Jack (Ontario) 27 Mar 09:18

I believe the only reason Harper has not destroyed the country is because he did... more

Jack (Ontario) 27 Mar 20:18

bert I don't question Nik's numbers. His record speaks for itself. However, I... more

hollinm (Saskatchewan) 21 Mar 08:54

Comments

gretag

Interesting that the NDP did so well when the Liberals had a leader who championed the environment and shifted the Liberals to the left, whereas under Ignatieff the NDP is losing support to the Liberals. I wonder if this is due to shifts in rural voting patterns where the left-right divide may be less useful than in urban areas?

Anyway, my own view is that Harper is bad for Canada and so the current polling trends make me happy. Support has to shift from both the Conservatives and the NDP in order to replace the Harper government.

[updated Sat Mar 21 07:56:34 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 07:56

31 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Bernie

Those numbers don't reveal an appreciable difference form previous polls. An election now, or soon, would give us a minority government. The only difference is that it is now possible that it would be Liberal. The trend is not strong enough yet to Liberal supporters much cause for celebration.
As for the best PM I consider that too silly to comment on. Only policy makes a good Pm and neither of these impress me. I don't draw a distinction between Harper and Ignatieff. The budget is Ignatieff's and it is as bad as Harper's.
I see Ignatieff as more honest, straight forward and direct; but that alone does formulate good policy.
If those are the two best that we can produce out of 33 million then we are in a sad state.

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:13:59 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:13

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This comment has been removed by the Moderator.

31 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Logo_lg_thumb novadog

Bert,
Interesting,

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:43:29 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:43

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

there have been continuouis polls throughout this year by Nik and other pollsters and the trend lines have been leaning Liberal with all of them. You sound like all the other whining Tories who are now realizing that this Harper reich will not last another six months.
This government has been shameful to all Canadians and Nik is showing that the population is seeing this in his polling.

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:54:27 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:54

bert (Suspended)

Yes Nik is showing what 1000 people are thinking during a recession.Of course the trend will flow towards the lying Liberals,they can do and say anything because they are not in power. We have a large percentage of our population who have no clue what the hell is going on and 50 % who don,t give a crap or are losing their jobs because of stupid provincial regulations and they blame the Conservatives federally instead of their own lame ass provincial government.And Syld this is the best Government you will ever have in your lifetime.Too honest for you is it????

[updated Sat Mar 21 09:22:46 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 09:22

Analyst

Let's see who is honest here Bert. Who told Canadians in October that Canada was not in recession? Who told Canadians in November that Canada would have a surplus at the end of the fiscal year? (March 31 2009) Who told Canadians in February that Canada would not be affected by a subprime mortgage problem? ( thousands of forfitures had already been registered at that time) That's just recently. Let's go back a bit. Who said that he would never appoint an unelected cabinat minister? Who said that he wouldn't appoint unelected persons to the senate? Who said that he would never tax income trusts? Who promised that he would lead a transparent and open government that would stop corruption? ( Cadman affar, in and out scheme, unannounced changes to food inspection services 3 months before the deadly lysteria outbreak). Answer these questions one by one and then decide if you have any right to call anyone else a liar... As for Nik, I don't even look at other polls, and if you have paid attention, he polled daily during the last 2 elections, even tho the CPC was leading...Your problem seems to be that you get scared when the CPC falls behind, which they have been doing ever since that farcical financial update in November.

[updated Sun Mar 22 13:58:06 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 13:58

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

analyst...great post and great facts. Too bad the angry white tory crowd can't see those fault lines in Harper. They will be whining from now on, instead of crowing, so we just need to get used to it.

[updated Sun Mar 22 14:14:08 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 14:14

elf

syld I agree with you and I am eager to see the change but I caution my Liberal friends not to be too quick to celebrate - harper will not go down without a fight and there's a nasty streak to his nature - I don't think he can damage Iggy like he did the kind and gentle Mr Dion - Iggy definitely has a stronger personality and is able to defend himself better - he has on occasion put harper in his place and made him look rather pathetic and stupid. I hope we see a Liberal in the PMO soon - I can't stand much more of this - and now the long gun registy is back on the table - we have to get to an election soon - before abortion is back up for debate - this country can't take much more of this man

[updated Mon Mar 23 18:06:19 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 18:06

calmecam

I agree!

Harper is like Mike Myers or Jason Vorhees.

...just when you think he's dead, he comes back for one last scare.

[updated Tue Mar 31 18:24:03 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 18:24

elf

calmecam - ha ha funny - yes but what will it take to finish him off - a stake through the heart won't work because he doesn't have one !!

[updated Tue Mar 31 20:12:19 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 20:12

calmecam

Simply allowing the magic of time to do its thing will suffice.

The rope from which our PM will hang is already streaming through the hole in the floor -- there's just lots and lots and lots AND LOTS of slack in it yet.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again... Harper is already like a kitty in the microwave. The only question is: When is Ignatieff going to press 'start'.

When the economic numbers get bad enough that 'pitchfork mentality' comes knocking at Harper's door, an election will be a wonderful distraction.

[updated Tue Mar 31 22:43:13 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 22:43

hollinm

bert I don't question Nik's numbers. His record speaks for itself.

However, I do disagree with his analysis on occasion where he attributes motives to the people being polled. The questions are asked and the answer is given with no explanation provided by the one participating in the poll. Am I right Nik?

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:54:34 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:54

(moderator)

Hollinm - Nik here (the pollster) - Thanks for the post. Our questionnaires have more than just a couple of questions and most of the time it's too much for the media to report. For example, we also know from our polling that the economy, not surprisingly, has skyrocketed as an issue and that accessible Conservative vote is trending down even though support is stable. Rest assured, when I'm making an analysis there is quite a bit of other data including the demographic and regional breakdowns that I factor to hedge my analysis to improve its quality. Thanks for asking BTW. There's a tendancy for people to think the poll was only just two questions and to think there isn't texture. My challenge is that only so much can get reported and I can't quite give everything for free :). In my experience, people respond to a poll based on what they want to see, which means usually one group is happy and the others are disgruntled. From my perspective all I am doing is putting a mirror up to politicians so they can see how Canadians truly view their elected representatives. Cheers, NJN

[updated Sat Mar 21 17:04:32 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 17:04

elf

it's always good to hear you are paying attention to us Nik - keep up the good work !!

[updated Tue Mar 31 20:14:06 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 20:14

elf

hollinm - oh do give Nik some credit for intelligence - do you think he could be this successful at his business if he didn't cover all aspects of every opinion ? Nik is without a doubt the most accurate pollster in the country

[updated Wed Apr 01 11:31:42 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 11:31

hollinm

Do not disagree. You see we can agree on something elf.

[updated Wed Apr 01 13:38:46 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 13:38

gretag

I doubt Nanos leans to the Liberals but that is irrelevant, in any case, as he is running a professional polling company. I assume he does polls when people are paying him to do polls.

Your allegations of "dishonest", "slanted", "disgusting" are way out of line just because you don't like the results. Maybe the results would have looked better for Harper a week or two earlier and maybe they will look worse for Harper next week, after the pileup of Dodge-sparring, Moore arts-ignorance, evolution-doubting, semi-automatic gun prizes, and free speech censorship that ended this week.

[updated Sat Mar 21 10:14:16 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 10:14

bert (Suspended)

More typical slanted MSM spin.When you have the press of this country against the government,you get the spin that they want you to hear.Dodge sparring(who says dodge is right) Arts--cut off all the grants to Quebec and the polls will go up,,evolution --its none of your GD business what his beliefs are.Semi automatic guns and free speech is something that only you liberals can spin negatively.Were not stupid out in Conservative land GRETAG so don't make up lists of lies & BS for us to reply to.Save that BS for your Liberal friends and letters to the editors (they will print the BS).Don't worry Gretag an election is coming and you will be sucking & blowing again after you lose and the Conservatives form a majority government.All the BS from the press and the polls won't be enough to save your cowardly liberal party.And the Canadian public doesn't forget the sleaze & dishonesty that your party was involved in during their corrupt years,even though the MSM would like us to forget it and don,t even mention it anymore.No Gretag,the Quebec license plate says it all,Je me souviens.And that applies to all HONEST Canadians,We will not forget the corruption of the Liberals.

[updated Sat Mar 21 11:07:07 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 11:07

hollinm

Thank God somebody from the Conservative side is talking on this board. I have been fighting with these Liberal partisans for several days now and thought nobody that was Conservative was looking at this board.

[updated Wed Apr 01 13:41:34 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 13:41

Logo_lg_thumb novadog

I suspect you may be correct, this is most likely the case on all sides of the spectrum.

Best regards

[updated Sat Mar 21 11:08:32 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 11:08

Graham Watt

I know it's difficult, Bert, but Nanos is as close as polls can be to accuracy as they're only used as indications rather than as, for the most part, opinion drivers.

[updated Sat Mar 21 12:06:58 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 12:06

This comment has been removed by the Moderator.

supper

That made my day. The left leaning pollsters and media have stopped porky from winning a majority! Why would they do that when it has been proven that mud raking on the liberals is rewarded with a senate seat?

For me the most interesting part is no ugly ads from the tories. Me thinks their funds may have dried up with the oil patch.

Anyways thanks for the laugh.

[updated Sat Mar 21 15:12:27 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 15:12

bert (Suspended)

They are afraid of intelligence so they have to try and find something to drag PM Harper down.They cant because he is clean,a family man,an economist that make most ministers look like idiots and pollsters look like fools.His intelligence makes these guys squirm and the fools don't understand they are only making themselves look like fools everyday.They seem to think no one can see them on TV with their smirks and twisted explanations for everything.Their phone in shows are staged most of the time as the callers are screened out if they are anti Liberal.But since most calls are anti Liberals some actually get on air or it would be all dead air.Fools like supper have the intelligence of a liberal backer,i have to give them that.Wink wink nudge nudge and we all know what kind of intelligence that is after voting liberal all these years.All i can say is the liberals must stay in lots because they have no friends,cause friends don't let friends vote Liberal.

[updated Sat Mar 21 16:07:43 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 16:07

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Harper is clean...Clean as what? the Cadman caper? the income trust fiasco? or the ina nd out scandal? The October election wehre he broke his own law? The porogation of parliament in December in lieu of facing parliament? Attack ads tha bordered on Libel?

Give your head a shake.

[updated Sat Mar 21 21:17:34 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 21:17

bert (Suspended)

Yes syld,he was protecting Parliament from the likes of the the you and your party .Canada could never allow again a party(liberal) that has no objection to break up the country by overthrowing a democratically elected government and replacing it with a hodgepodge NDP,separatist & the remnants of a corrupt liberal party that the Canadian voters did not vote for,.I would shake your own head syld,because anyone who would vote for anyone of these coalition parties has dung for brains.

[updated Sun Mar 22 09:38:21 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 09:38

syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

A typical angry tory response........look in the tory mirror first. Harper was willing to do the exact same to replace Martin.

Hypocrite also comes to mind here

[updated Sun Mar 22 11:03:00 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 11:03

Analyst

Wrong Bert, maybe you should go find Ernie to explan things to you. Harper is not an economist. He failed to get aq degree. That' is like saying I'm a mechanic because I watched my mechanic change a tire. Your comments are so weak...but they are better than the comedy channel was last night...

[updated Sun Mar 22 17:31:57 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 17:31

elf

complete nonsense !!

[updated Tue Mar 31 20:16:16 EDT 2009]

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31 Mar 20:16

elf

bert - give your head a shake there bert - Harper is not at all the squeaky clean politician he made himself out to be - time to wake up !! I would go so far as to say that he is probably one of the most corrupt people we have ever had in the office - Lyin Brian has nothing on this guy. When Harper took office he admitted he had never travelled out of Canada except to the us - he has now used Canadian tax dollars to travel far more than necessary and he and his whole family have pretty much been all over the world on us - and then there are the lies and wild accusations in the House of Commons - nasty slurs directed against opposition MPs( people elected by you and I ) based on frivolous and questionable newspaper reports - and of course don't let's forget the doctored tapes, ( Grewald / Dosanj and then the Cadman affair ) - and on top of that, after telling us he wanted an elected senate he promptly gave senate positions to idiots like Duffy !! ?? he clearly also has issues with short term memory too because he keeps forgetting the promises he makes - clean ?? NOT !! sleazy and bordering on corrupt ? most definitely -

[updated Wed Apr 01 11:52:41 EDT 2009]

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01 Apr 11:52

Avatar3457_1_thumb attila (suspended)

You ,sir, are a gold plated ,card carrying idiot .
You epitomize the lack of intelligence inherent in the con-clone party .

[updated Sat Mar 21 20:25:12 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 20:25

This comment has been removed by the Moderator.

Analyst

No Bert, he doesn't, in fact he doesn't even know where you live LMAO

[updated Sun Mar 22 17:33:28 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 17:33

hollinm

Not surprising that the NDP numbers have fallen significantly. With Layton concocting the coalition arrangement and indicating he would not vote for the budget even before it was delivered has shown Canadians including NDP supporters that Layton and the party have lost their way. Layton's hatred for Harper is overwhelming rational thinking.

As far as the polls are concerned I suspect the Count is being rewarded for not being Dion and having the ability to speak in complete sentences that people can understand.

However, the day will come when the patrician, arrogant elitist who is currently the interim leader of the Liberal party will be exposed for what he is; a carpetbagger who has lived most of his life outside the country and who believes it is his God given right to be PM of Canada.

Canadians do not take kindly to people who talk down to them and who tell them how they should think or feel. The more the country sees of Iggy the less they will warm up to him. Running around the country saying he loves agriculture, the oil sands and will solve crime ridden Manitoba is not an election platform. It simply shows he is a typical Liberal.

There are encouraging signs in the U.S. economy and the worse fear of the Liberal party is that the Canadian economy begins to rebound before Iggy can force an election.

The polls can say whatever they will but there will be no election as long as the best PM numbers belong to Harper and the Liberals are able to put some money in the bank.

[updated Sat Mar 21 08:41:00 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 08:41

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

The most interesting part of this poll is the Ontario poll showing the Libs at 44% Vs 31% for Harper. This gets into sweep territory.

Harper's slim lead in personal popularity is only there because he retains his very strong support in the west and has slipped badly everywhere else.

I like the trend

[updated Sat Mar 21 09:18:49 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 09:18

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Sammy100

It astounds me that the new “Media Messiah” of the north has not released any policy and will not be having a policy convention in May but continues to trend upwards...amazing. Please let me borrow a line from Sir Winston Churchill.

“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Need I say more

Sam Adair

[updated Sat Mar 21 13:11:23 EDT 2009]

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21 Mar 13:11

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Dear Nik,

As a fan of understanding polls and looking at them from a historical snapshot this one reminds me of the same pattern with the previous leader.
Dion win puts Liberals ahead of Tories, poll finds dated Dec 4, 2006.
I am confident you also polled good numbers for Dion when he was selected as their leader.

"When asked which party they would vote for if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Dion came out on top: (percentage-point change from an Oct. 12-15 poll in brackets):

* Liberals: 37 per cent (+5)
* Conservatives: 31 per cent (-1)
* NDP: 14 per cent (-3)
* Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 7 per cent (-2)

In Ontario, the Liberals experienced a 12-point jump, going from 36 per cent to 48 per cent. The Tories dropped a point to 32 per cent. However, in Quebec and the West, the Liberals' numbers were flat.

"The Liberal Party has had almost a week of sustained and generally favourable media coverage, so everybody really expected they would get a bump in the polls," CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said."

Nik we both know how that turned out for the Liberals. I have seen over 100 Polls now with the Liberals from 38% - 26% in vaious Polls.

I am interested in turnout and your analysis in the last 4 elections and your prediction if we will have an increase or another decline in voter participation.

I have not seen any news that would increase the voter turnout or reduce the voter apathy unless a coalition rears its ugly head.

Thanks Nik.

*For all those Liberal Apologists who feel compelled to respond to every thread, don't waste my time. Thanks again.

[updated Sun Mar 22 00:55:13 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 00:55

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Dear Nik,

here is another Poll highlighting the "boost" or bump the Liberals had after selecting their new leader. I think history is repeating itself.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Canadian Liberals Reach 40% After Dion Win
December 10, 2006
Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Liberal 40% +8
CPC 34% -2
NDP 10 % -6
Bloc 8% -2
Green 8% +2

(Source: Ekos Research Associates / Toronto Star
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,022 Canadian adults, conducted on Dec. 5 and Dec. 6, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.)

[updated Sun Mar 22 01:09:08 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 01:09

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Tom Good

Personally, I do not believe the Liberal surge in their traditional stamping grounds is to be unexpected. Numbers may go up and down in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces as Liberal political relevance and credibility waxes and wanes. I must admit that the Liberals are learning from the Conservatives about party management and fund raising. They are making a very deliberate effort to be seen and to listen to the grass roots. Not a strong suite in the past. So, Canada of Confederation seems to be doing as politically expected. Political life is comfortable.

The numbers issues with the NDP and the Greens are reasonably understandable. If either of the two major parties are perceived to be "strong" then the non-core vote for those two parties tends to be "siphoned" away by either strong Conservatives or strong Liberals. The moveable portion of any electorate is the swing voter, and any voter who is not "core" is a swing voter. The Bloc numbers are also vulnerable to the "attraction" to a strong party presence as long as that party has not poked hot sticks into Quebec culture and interests. At the MOMENT, the Liberals are perceived to be gaining strength in Canada of Confederation and the "attraction" of swing voters is beginning much to the concern of the Conservatives. I believe that is ALL we can say for the moment.

Now, the Post-Confederation Canada is the West and we have heard the phrase "THE WEST WANTS IN". It gets wonderful lip-service from Confederation Canada but nothing has changed much in a 100 years. The West, understandably, gets a little testy from time to time, saying "if you are not going to play fairly and justly, then we will create our own party and maybe somebody will listen". Nobody has ever listened as the status quo is comfortable and equality is not. OK, for the non-believers, the West has created the United Farmers Party, the Progressives, the Social Credit, the CCF now the NDP, and the Reform and the Alliance that have become the major components of the current Conservatives----the Government of Canada.

Liberal strength is certainly not in the West and, as is always so as election time approaches, they are mounting a love-in but not offering equality. Conservative strength----at least the Reform element, the Alliance element and a smattering of the Progressive element----is in the West but, strangely, they are not offering equality although they are the government. The NDP, the fighter for the underdog, whose strength lies in the West, have never mentioned political equality. To me, the lack of political equality across Canada is the FATAL FLAW for Liberals, Conservatives and NDP in the governance of modern Canada. Those three parties are all wrapped up in their policies and political personna and are collectively silent on political equality. (Allegedly, Ontario gets 21 new seats at the Quebec ration and there are noises about the west but nothing concrete)

The three parties draw their leadership conventions, policy conventions and what-not from riding associations. If the West is short changed MP seats, thus it follows, the West is short changed on riding association and party delegated too. None of the party leaders as yet, have said anything. What is wrong with Harper, Ignatieff and Layton ? Usually it is one man, one vote and those votes in a democracy should be of equal weight but not in Canada.

So back to the topic of this poll. What do the numbers suggest to me ? If the Liberals are going to form a government, then they have to concentrate on Confederation Canada but their "soft belly" will continue to be the West. If the Conservatives are going to form a majority government, they have to consolidate their strength in the West and recapture the old Progressive Conservatives in Confederation Canada. If they ignore the Progressive Conservative wing of the party, they becone more of a regional party than a national party. If they ignore Quebec, they do so at their own peril like Diefenbaker. The NDP to gain relevance will have to concentrate on their roots in the West and they have more to gain in British Columbia than they do in Quebec.

If Canada was to have equality in governance, then all ridings across Canada would be at the current Quebec ratio of one House of Commons seat for each 103,333 souls.

[updated Sun Mar 22 02:10:21 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 02:10

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Hope-nope5_thumb Canadian (Suspended)

Why the Quebec Liberals attempted to bar rivals from entering the leadership race?

Motion would bar prominent MPs from Grit leadership- Fri. Nov. 7 2008

"Quebec officials are recommending that anyone with outstanding debt from the 2006 leadership race be disqualified -- a rule that would hit Gerard Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay, who each owe just under $200,000 from their unsuccessful bids."

"Privately, supporters of Kennedy, Hall Findlay and other camps are furious with Michael Ignatieff, the perceived front-runner whose supporters dominate the Quebec wing's board of directors. The board unanimously approved the submission, which rival camps contend is aimed at erecting barriers to potential candidates through a variety of measures."

Dion, Ignatieff seek debt extensions

Liberal leader Stephane Dion and his deputy, Michael Ignatieff, are seeking extensions from Elections Canada for paying off leadership campaign loans as an 18-month repayment deadline expires at midnight Tuesday. Ottawa Citizen June 2, 2008

[updated Sun Mar 22 16:56:33 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 16:56

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RonaldODowd

President Obama is on 60 Minutes now on CBS.

[updated Sun Mar 22 19:55:19 EDT 2009]

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22 Mar 19:55

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Iggy has placed another marker on the Tories by stating he will demand changes to EI today so there will be a focus on retraining when parliament reconvenes today. This is another well timed and strategic move by Iggy.
I believe Iggy gets it politically and knows how to make Harper's underwear just a little tighter. This new Liberal team will make Canadian politics more responsive to the needs of the population as opposed to the narrow populist approach and lousy economic record of the current government.
...................................................
"People are shedding jobs like crazy," Mr. Ignatieff said on CTV's Question Period. "We've got to have a government that steps in and says 'Let's put some floor under this. Let's give people an employment insurance system that allows them to get training for new jobs.' "

Mr. Ignatieff indicated his party would make proposals that could be viewed as a second round of fiscal stimulus. His timeline for Parliament to act coincides with a Liberal-created confidence vote on the Conservative government's performance that will likely be held in June."

[updated Mon Mar 23 05:10:58 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 05:10

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Logo_lg_thumb novadog

I believe all Canadians of all political stripes will agree that Greg Gutfeld of Redeye and his croonies on Fox News are total ASSHOLES!!!!

[updated Mon Mar 23 11:25:47 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 11:25

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Non-aligned in Toronto

The polls remain volatile, and Ignatieff still has to face the "where's the Beef" question. So far he has benefitted from positive press (fawning practically) and a Harper government that has lost it's compass somewhere along the way.

Unless Iggy can come up with a platform of his own, (currently he says less than nothing but votes with the Cons) his newfound support will wither on the vine, and the left centre voters will return to the NDP.

[updated Mon Mar 23 13:47:01 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 13:47

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Jack

Even Tory MP and ex-fighter pilot, Laurie Hawn says the Russian flights were no big deal. More embarrassment for Harper and MacKay's childish behaviour over the flight.

Canada overreacted, Russian envoy says.
BRUCE CHEADLE
The Canadian Press
March 23, 2009 at 7:12 PM EDT

Conservative MP Laurie Hawn, a former Canadian fighter pilot, told the hearing there were 30 Russian flights into North America's zone of interest in 2007-08 — sparking 28 NORAD intercepts, including eight by Canadian jet fighters. Only three provided advance notice.
In a later interview with The Canadian Press, Ms. Hawn said there have actually been 74 Russian flights in all, with just three notifications.

Nonetheless, in contrast to his government's defence minister, Ms. Hawn played down the incidents.

“As we said from the start, these kinds of operations are routine,” the Edmonton MP said.
“I've been involved in them in my air force career. These things happen in what is international airspace.”

Routine notification about flights, added Hawn, “is just simply not true and I know that from my personal experience going back several decades — but it's not a big deal.”

[updated Mon Mar 23 20:14:24 EDT 2009]

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23 Mar 20:14

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

I think this should provide impetus to Iggy's aspirations and help his polls even more:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090324.wignatieff24/BNStory/politics/home

"Mr. Rossi, the party's national director whose background is fundraising, predicted yesterday that total donations for the first quarter of 2009 "will be significantly better than the first quarter last year, despite the recession ..." He will not release numbers until the end of this quarter."
....................................................
This also puts to the lie some of the unfounded comments here about Liberal party fiscal health.

[updated Tue Mar 24 06:46:53 EDT 2009]

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24 Mar 06:46

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RonaldODowd

Finding Just The Right Brink.

Politics is one tough slog. Reality often doesn't count while perception tends to be the name of the game. Scoring cheap political points often is more important than reflecting the facts -- not to mention solving the enormous problems affecting Canadians during this period of severe economic turmoil.

Take the 3 billion dollar spending fund which was passed by Parliament today with Conservative and Liberal support. The Conservatives deemed it a matter of confidence while Liberals insisted prior to the vote on getting the details on how the money would be spent. None were forthcoming.

Once again, Canadians were treated to the political spectacle of another brink too far. One more perfect example of shadow boxing both by the government and the main opposition party. It isn't easy for parties to pick their spot -- it requires enormous courage of behalf of all parties to subject voters to another unwanted election. Hence the come down from the barricades.

The Conservatives will argue that this is simply another fine example of Liberal leadership failure. Conversely, Liberals will make the case that they will indeed dig through the spending particulars in committees, thus continuing to hold this government to account.

Brinkmanship is not like crying wolf. It is not intended as a repeat exercise. Both parties are well positioned on the pot but neither has the political will to drop it...call it the latest play in a phony war -- the defecate stalemate.

Political credibility is on the line. Canadians are waiting for someone to blink at the right breach. Now there's the rub -- an election if necessary, but not necessarily an election. Somewhere, William Lyon Mackenzie King is not smiling.

Time to identify the right brink and then trigger it. If that means an election tomorrow, so be it. If instead, we head into an election this summer or fall, or even in 2010, then let's have it. But please, put a damper on the political nonsense.

Lay down your political marker and stick to it. It is up to each side to have enough guts to act to win that coveted majority government. Make up your minds and do something about it. Identify the brink and then for god's sake cross over it. Canada deserves better than this.

[updated Tue Mar 24 21:26:36 EDT 2009]

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24 Mar 21:26

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Jack

Who's folding like a tent? Stephen Harper the conservative sell-out.

By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN
Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Indeed, Harper's breathtaking, opportunistic conversion to "liberal" economics in order to fight the recession -- big spending, big deficits -- has left many Reform conservatives wondering what happened to their party.

Who'll win? Who knows? But I think Harper has a tougher road than Ignatieff because he's offended more core Conservatives in moving to the centre, than Ignatieff has core Liberals.

[updated Wed Mar 25 07:46:02 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 07:46

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Jack

Harper can't win a majority. Period. His career will be over after the next election.

The Conservatives are down and out in Quebec – and know it
JEFFREY SIMPSON

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
March 25, 2009 at 12:00 AM EDT

Something quiet but profound has altered the Harper government's political strategy: Quebec doesn't cut it any more.

Part of Quebec's complaint was the Harper government's cap on equalization's growth, a change that will help Ontario, the paymaster that can't afford the bill any more but can't get up from the table without paying it.

[updated Wed Mar 25 08:29:24 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 08:29

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Jack

Harper and his phoney accountability. Every conservative should be outraged by this!

Programs for seniors filled with 'pork':MP
Only one grant goes to riding not held by Tories

David Akin, Canwest News Service
Published: Tuesday, March 24, 2009

In Richmond, B. C., senior citizens are getting $18,500 from the federal government to hold a few "intergenerational" movie nights.

In Denzil, Sask., a seniors club will receive $25,000 to form an exercise club.

And in Beauval, Sask. -- where the most recent census found just 86 people who were over the age of 60 -- the federal government has set aside $20,000 so those seniors can teach others native bead work, dancing and storytelling.

[updated Wed Mar 25 09:40:24 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 09:40

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Bernie

I am not a good writer, so I'll take the liberty to attach a poem which better expresses a thought I have about the four parties that make up our HoC. and I apologize to any who may be offended.
I see the parties represented in the poem as; Cons. (the wolf), Libs.(the fox) NDP(the cat) and Bloc (the spider)
They spend their time criticizing the actions of the others parties, but when in the same position they do exactly the same things that they just comdemned.

The Fox And The Cat

The Fox and the Cat as they traveled one day,
With moral discourses cut shorter the way.
"Tis great," says the Fox, "to make justice our guide."
"How Godlike is mercy!" Grimalkin replied.
While thus they proceeded, a Wolf from the wood,
Impatient of hunger and thirsting for blood,

Rushed forth--as he saw the dull shepherd asleep--
And seized for his supper an innocent sheep.
"In vain, wretched victim, for mercy you bleat;
When mutton's at hand," says the Wolf, "I must eat".

The Cat was astonished; the Fox stood aghast,
To see the fell beast at his bloody repast.
"What a wretch!" says the Cat. "Tis the vilest of brutes!
Does he feed upon flesh when there's herbage and roots?"

Cries the Fox: "While our oaks give us acorns so good,
What a tyrant is this, to spill innocent blood!"
Well onward they marched, and they moralized still,
Till they came where some poultry picked chaff by a mill;

Sly Reynard surveyed them with gluttonous eyes,
And made, spite of morals, a pullet his prize.
A mouse, too, that chanced from her covert to stray,
The greedy Grimalkin secured as her prey.

A Spider, that sat in her web on the wall,
Perceived the poor victims, and pitied their fall:
She cried, "Of such murders how guiltless am I!"
Then ran to regale on a new-taken fly.

~ j Cunningham~

[updated Wed Mar 25 09:50:49 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 09:50

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elf

what I find interesting about these lastest numbers is the fact that Iggy is not putting forward any real policies at this point, yet people seem so darned happy to have a leader who can actually give Harper a taste of his own medicine that they are prepared to take him as their leader on trust that he will promote traditional Liberal values. He is getting some flack for not putting forward his policies and openly expressing his opinions however I think he is playing a very wise game here. In the past the Harper CONs have stolen Liberal policies ( eg the green retro-fit for homes etc. ) and have put them forward as their own and taken credit for them - Harper doesn't seem to mind playing a nasty game of politics. Liberals feel disenchanted with the leadership of Mr Dion even though we all admire him as a man we found he was definitely not strong enough against a politician like Harper - Iggy is like a gift from the almighty !! Yes he has some issues and I feel they will be ironed out easily and Canadians get to know him better but I think he will prove to be a strong and likeable leader and I am prepared like many to give him the benefit of the doubt and my complete support.

[updated Wed Mar 25 10:33:34 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 10:33

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Jack

Who cares if it wrecks the justice system as long as it changes the channel from the economy to crime, crime, crime all the time. Just get it out.

There's going to be parade of crime crap coming from Harper now he knows he has lost Quebec for good. It's all he has.

CTV legal analyst Steven Skurka called the legislation a "huge mistake."

"If there is a problem, and I don't accept that there is one, the answer is to pour more money into the justice system and to get in-custody trials on sooner," Skurka said.
He said the legislation would put huge demands on the justice system.

"I don't think this has been thought through at all," he said.
"It sounds like it's been decided on anecdotes rather than empirical studies."

Desperation to do something, anything other than the economy is showing.

[updated Wed Mar 25 11:04:42 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 11:04

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Tory arrogance at its best;
Sheila Fraser, the Auditor-General, said she thinks it is "not unreasonable" for the Conservatives to give MPs a list of programs to be financed with the $3-billion.

"I must say I don't buy the argument that they can't tell them something," she told the Ottawa Citizen this week.

Me neither. We are in uncharted territory here-- spending between April and the end of June is usually detailed in the previous year's Estimates documents. The exceptional economic circumstances mean an unprecedented surge in government spending that can't be detailed in the normal fashion.

Still, $3-billion is a lot of money to take at face value the Conservative pledge that it will all be spent in a prudent and non-partisan fashion. It's a lesson of political history that governments tend to appoint their friends and spend money in their own ridings.

As one Tory said when asked for an elegant solution to the problem of potential pork-barreling: "Vote Conservative!"

[updated Wed Mar 25 18:26:19 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 18:26

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Logo_lg_thumb novadog

I thought the new Liberal website (www.onprobation.ca) was pretty good, then I tried (www.onprobation.com) and I thought it was hilarious.

[updated Wed Mar 25 18:40:49 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 18:40

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Jack

Harper sets this guy up as a non-partisan watchdog. Now he won't say what he wants, he is blocking him from getting information and cutting his department funding. An attempt to muzzle him and hide Harper's gross mismanagement of the economy. If that doesn't work watch him get fired or eliminate the job as a prudent cost savings to the taxpayer.

The Canadian Press

March 25, 2009 at 4:33 PM EDT

OTTAWA — Canada's budget watchdog says the federal government is likely to fall about $9-billion further into the hole over the next two years than the budget projected in January.

Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page told a Commons committee Wednesday that the economy has deteriorated so much since the January budget that any stimulus from increased government spending will have been swamped by lower growth.

"If we were going to have a recession it would have happened by now" Stephen "Good Call" Harper.

[updated Wed Mar 25 21:37:27 EDT 2009]

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25 Mar 21:37

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Jack

Watchdog gets punished by Harper for telling the truth. Harper hiding the real numbers.

Updated Wed. Mar. 25 2009 10:06 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff

Page, who is Canada's independent economic watchdog and was appointed by the prime minister last year, has been heavily criticized by Conservative MPs for his dire predictions.

Page's last series of forecasts appear to be accurate, including his last deficit prediction. But in the future, he may have a more difficult time carrying out his Parliamentary duties -- the government has said it will slash his office budget by more than $1 million.

Page's last series of forecasts appear to be accurate, including his last deficit prediction. But in the future, he may have a more difficult time carrying out his Parliamentary duties -- the government has said it will slash his office budget by more than $1 million.

[updated Thu Mar 26 08:28:22 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 08:28

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Jack

Conservatives trying to cover up how bad economy is. Hiding information from their self-appointed, non-partisan watchdog. Desperation is setting in.

Tories' rosy forecast outdated, budget officer says Conservative MPs accuse watchdog of being 'alarmist'

STEVEN CHASE
March 26, 2009

One senior Tory MP even chided Mr. Page for his choice of words because he used the verb "plunge" in a recent report to describe a 15.3-per-cent drop in Canada's gross domestic income for the last quarter of 2008.

He generated further heartburn for the Tories when he questioned part of the Harper government's plan to reduce deficits. Responding to an opposition MP's question, Mr.

Page said it was unrealistic, given the deteriorating economy, for the Tory government to count on earning $2-billion in revenue this year by selling off Crown assets.

Yesterday he told MPs that he's also having difficulty getting the federal Finance Department to provide him the raw financial data he needs for his analysis and forecasting.

[updated Thu Mar 26 08:29:23 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 08:29

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Jack

Harper folds like a tent under pressure, and will revise his false economic forcast. Stop fudging the numbers Harper and tell the truth.

Ottawa ready to revise budget forecasts: Harper
Reuters Published: Thursday, March 26, 2009

Chris Wattie/Reuters

"We are in a period of enormous uncertainty where projections are changing extremely rapidly ... (we) will consult with various private forecasters as we go through, revise our forecasts, see if we ..."

OTTAWA -- The Canadian government is prepared to revise the economic forecasts and plans it made in its Jan 27 budget, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday, citing the rapidly unfolding financial crisis.

[updated Thu Mar 26 17:02:16 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 17:02

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Jack

No one can believe this is serious, but it is. Conservative Senator says geese, which are a health hazard, should be fed to the poor. Are the Tories are losing their minds. Off with their heads.

OTTAWA–Let them eat geese.

A suggestion by Conservative Senator Nancy Ruth this week that Canada geese be used to feed the poor ruffled feathers on Parliament Hill yesterday.

"Given that this is a Conservative plan, I am surprised they have not suggested to raffle off handguns, let them shoot, and then let the poor people have the geese," said Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton-Canso). "We all know that Tory times are tough times, but where will it stop, squirrel burgers, pigeon McNuggets, gopher burritos, maybe beavertails made from real beaver tails?" he said in the Commons.

"We should shoot some of these geese or feed them to the poor, that would be my preference," Nancy Ruth told senior officials of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency appearing at the Senate finance committee to discuss the agency's budget for the next fiscal year.

"The Canada goose is a health hazard," Ruth added, explaining fecal waste runs into the lake and causes skin irritation known as swimmer's itch.

[updated Thu Mar 26 21:26:56 EDT 2009]

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26 Mar 21:26

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elf

I do have difficulty understanding how so many would support the Liberals and yet still think Harper is the best PM - how does that gel ? In my book he has been the very worst PM - even worse than Mulroney ( forgive me ) - I'm serious - he has been the most power hungry PM ever - he is unemotional, has no integrity and on the world stage certainly the most embarassing -

[updated Fri Mar 27 16:32:59 EDT 2009]

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27 Mar 16:32

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

To those who still think the Liberals are broke:
http://www.warrenkinsella.com/comments.php?y=09&m=04&entry=entry090401-223600

A million bucks...that's what the Liberal Party raised, tonight, at the dinner at the Royal York: more than a million bucks. The event was organized by Belinda Stronach and Frank McKenna, and the place was packed. Tables filled every available inch of space. There were Liberals hanging from the rafters - but I saw quite a few Tories, too, present to check out the new guy.

The new guy didn't disappoint. Bob Rae did the intro, Dom LeBlanc did the thank you, and Michael Ignatieff mocked the Reformatories - down in "a basement" somewhere, as he put it, poring through his 16 books, frantically looking for something to use in an attack ad. If he had known how much time they'd spend on it, he said, "I would've written a few more books."

Man oh man, this guy is so going to be Prime Minister.

[updated Thu Apr 02 07:23:24 EDT 2009]

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02 Apr 07:23

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syld (suspended for inappropriate remarks)

Here's why Iggy will be PM sooner than later:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/fp/Harper+economic+stimulus+exhausted+before+release+think+tank+says/1467612/story.html

"OTTAWA — Rapid contractions of both the Canadian economy and the job market eclipsed the Harper government’s stimulus package before the first dollar was dispensed, an economic think-tank says in study to be released Monday.

The study by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives says the stimulus package laid out in the Jan. 27 budget was too small, too late and failed to direct the money where Canadians would get the most bang for their buck.

“The size of the federal government’s stimulus package is out of proportion to the threat that Canadians are currently facing and have already endured,” says the report, entitled Too Little Too Late."
..........................................................................................

The title hits in dead on. these guys were more more concerned with survivial and killing off the Liberals instead of doing the stimulus planning last fall when they really did know the economy was tanking.

This further highlights the unethical stupidity that manages the Tory party.

[updated Mon Apr 06 06:53:18 EDT 2009]

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06 Apr 06:53

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