New Nanos National Poll - Lib 34, CP 33, NDP 19, BQ 7, GP 7 (completed Jan 7)

This poll must reflect disenchantment with Conservatives as Michael Ignatieff is still relatively unknown. These numbers are truly amazing - when was the last time the Bloc was displaced by 10 points in Quebec by any federalist party?

Harper burned bridges when he insulted Bloc MPs, and by extension Quebecers, and his party now pays the price.

[updated Fri Jan 09 22:11:02 EST 2009]

Dear Nik, What were the questions asked in the survey? I would like to know what they were before making a comment on the results.

Thanks again.

[updated Fri Jan 09 22:26:47 EST 2009]

The national numbers are not very different from those in the Nanos poll published a month after the election. The Liberals are up a few, the BQ are down substantially. There are some regional shifts, but nothing that will make anybody especially comfortable.

I doubt that any of the war rooms see this as a long-term stable result. It will be a couple of months before a clear picture of how the various parties have fared in the post-election storm season comes into focus. Mr. Ignatieff is probably happy with the Quebec numbers for now, and hoping that the Atlantic numbers are not a statisitical artifact related to small sample size. Gilles Duceppe can't like these numbers much at all. Everybody else is somewhere in between, I think, although these numbers are likely not making Mr. Harper happy for reasons that are more complex than those confronting Mr. Duceppe. His (Harper's) leadership is greatly weakened by events of his own making, and he's going to need to show some support if he isn't going to go down sooner rather than later.

I don't like the "best PM" question. I think that the leadership index question that ran during the election gives a more detailed look at how people are viewing the respective leaders. The best PM is a horse race question that doesn't mean a whole lot when there's no election on.

I might agree with Nik's take on the NDP-Liberal trade-off if this poll had been done six months after Mr. Ignatieff's ascension, but at this point such conclusions are really just speculation. The next two weeks are going to have a lot to do with who, if anyone, gets to eat Stephen Harper's lunch. All things considered, I see Conservative bleed to the Liberals and Liberal bleed to the NDP as the more likely scenario if Mr. Ignatieff is able to keep his party on the rails (and as an academic with a tendency to ramble off topic, he has the potential for making gaffes that would be magnified in the current circumstances). Mr. Ignatieff needs to find a way to take the edge off his image with the left wing of his party, to be ok on that flank. That still looks like a tough sell at this point, especially without limiting his opportunities for growth on the right. If Mr. Ignatieff stumbles, his party could be in desperate trouble very quickly.

I think we have a few months of very interesting politics ahead. Don't bet the farm on any of these ponies just yet.

[updated Sat Jan 10 00:57:16 EST 2009]

The current political environment is anything but static---it is charged. Harper now has an articulate, viable challenger with empty pockets. That new face, though, has an easy smile, has a spring in his step, has a razor sharp repartee and has warmth without a sweater. Who said a leader's personna was without consequence?

Harper is the incumbent and all things being equal, politics favours the incumbent. I also believe the Canadian electorate is sick of indecisive elections over the last several years. I would suggest that if Harper has learned anything from the confrontation / crisis he provoked, he will open the House with a well thought out budget favouring middle of the road policies addressing Canadian domestic issues. If he does, he will be able to calm the storm that he stirred up before he gave new meaning to the word "prorogue"

I further believe Ignatieff would be reluctant to pull the plug on the government unless he is forced to do so and go to an election rather than go to a coalition. Mind you, Harper may feel he may have an electoral advantage in the Spring rather than allow the Liberals time to rebuild their organization and funds.

Harper has shown he is a Canadian politician, a smart tactician but he also prone to step into the quicksands of politics. His claim to the "highroad" is just that----a claim. He is fallible like the rest of us and that is possibly a shock to the strong partisans on that side of the road. With keen hearing, sincere compromise and a modicum of statesmanship for Canadians, rather than partisanship, I am sure Harper, if HE WANTS, could stay as the Government of Canada for the remainder of the year---maybe longer.

[updated Sat Jan 10 05:57:49 EST 2009]

Mr. Harper is losing credibility with Canadians.

- He called an early election for the sole purpose of getting a majority;
- He ran a campaign with no economic platform, oblivious to the coming recession;
- He tabled a bill that he must have known the opposition could not support;
- He used divisive strategies to fan the flames of national unity;
- He insulted our intelligence by calling a coalition government 'undemocratic';
- With parliament locked-out to protect his power, he flip-flopped on Senate reform to make 18 appointments.

Canada has had enough!

[updated Sat Jan 10 07:49:26 EST 2009]

I'm a bit surprised about the height of the bounce.( that's all it is). I would expect to see support rising for the Liberal party but at a more gradual rate.
Anything that makes trouble for the Harper government is a positive but I don't see support for Ignatieff as much a hopeful sign.
I could no more support a party lead by Ignatieff than I can with one lead by Harper. They are both too much more interested in saying and doing things that garner more votes for themselves and their parties than in doing good for the country.
Only yesterday Ignatieff displayed another of his poor judgement when he gave overwhelming support to the Israelis and their action re Palestine. I have little respect for a person in his position who a problem thinking things through properly.
Dion has more intelligence and good judgement in his little finger than Ignatieff will ever acquire in his whole body.
I feel sad that the Canadian voters would give either of these Harper or Ignatieff the opportunity to make decisions that would affect all of us.

I hope that when parliament opens again that all opposition parties will vote against the government at the first opportunity. I don't want another election but if the other parties can't reach an agreement for a year or two, then so be it. Bring it on!

[updated Sat Jan 10 10:23:58 EST 2009]

I think that those making any predictions on this single poll are being somewhat premature. At the moment polls are rather meaningless and are varying widely. For instance here is one that will be released today if it has not been already:

“Amidst Deepening Economic Concern, Majority (55%) Still Believes Canada on Right Track

Tories (39%) Continue to Lead Grits (28%), NDP (15%), Green (9%) and Bloc (8%)

January 10, 2009
Contact Darrell Bricker at (416) 324-2001
Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (National)
Location Canada”

Not that I think that this one is any more accurate or relevant than Nik’s is. This is not a criticism of the polling techniques rather a point on timing. There are just too many factors that are unknown at this point to make any kind of accurate predictions based on polling. For instance no one knows how the budget will be received or how the economy will go over the next few months? CIBC is predicting that the worst is over and that we will start to see a recovery by the start of the third quarter of this year so this will also have an impact on the polls. Of course we know that Iggy will not bring the govt down because he is simply not ready to fight an election and will not be until after the convention this Spring at the earliest. So if wants to go to the polls his window of opportunity is post Convention to about late summer in my view. After that his chances for success diminish as the economy gets better.

Nik is correct when he says that at the moment Iggy is enjoying a honeymoon with voters as they really do not know him yet. One has to wonder if the fact that the best he can do is a tie for a “honeymoon” bounce is a sign of future trouble for him. He should also be worried about these numbers for another reason. The Bloc and NDP will now be gunning for him. With his recent shift of LPC policy to the right he has given them plenty of ammo with which to attack him. They are also no longer bound by the coalition agreement which has now been all but formally scuttled by the Grit leader. So Jack and Gilles will go for the jugular in an attempt to bleed away the left wing of the party to their banners. Rae will also be working on the inside to gather the left wing supporters within the party to his side. This is precisely why the Tories do not have to risk a negative backlash by defining Iggy. The left will do it for them.

The game is afoot! It should be an interesting year.

[updated Sat Jan 10 14:53:05 EST 2009]

Well it seems the initial negative attitude towards the coalition was more against Stephane Dion as PM than it was against the coalition. Either that or on reflecting on just how divisive and calculatingly destructive the Con Financial statement at the end of November was, have given voters a chance to reconsider.

Nik, how about a poll on what voters think about a coalition with Ignatieff as PM.

[updated Sat Jan 10 16:34:52 EST 2009]

Watch Lawrence Cannon.

In the coming days and weeks, keep an eye on Lawrence Cannon. Not because he's foreign affairs minister but because he has a solid business relationship with several senior Liberals. If events move as I expect, Lawrence's role will be a key one in cementing the short to medium term future of Harper's government in the House of Commons.

[updated Sat Jan 10 20:13:47 EST 2009]

President Obama Will Be Coming To Town.

I for one am extremely happy to hear that the President-elect of the United States will be coming to Ottawa shortly after he takes office. I'm all in favour of keeping this tradition alive bearing in mind the special relationship between our two countries. (For those of you who may be wondering, President Bush went to Mexico following his election as president.)

Of course, Obama will be meeting with our Prime Minister and hopefully an integrated approach to fighting the global recession can be developed so our two nations can get out of this economic mess as quickly as possible.

I'm not only hoping but also urging those in the Opposition Leader's office to move heaven and earth to make sure that the President will have at least a brief meeting with Michael Ignatieff while he is in Ottawa. To my mind, it is extremely important for each man to get the measure of the other. Democrats and Liberals are natural political allies and Ignatieff should make as much of that as is humanly possible. I expect that the President will have a warm relationship with the current PM but my political instincts tell me that Harper will not be able to get as much mileage out of Obama as Ignatieff could conceivably achieve.

Pictures of Obama and Ignatieff together will further cement the natural impression that Canadians have to an ever increasing extent that Ignatieff is a future prime minister. Again, I can't stress enough how important it is for the OLO to be on top of this file. Increased political momentum awaits.

[updated Sun Jan 11 12:44:34 EST 2009]

Your latest poll results really show that Dion's potential leadership of a coalition was very unpopular. The present numbers show that Canadians would prefer a General Election be called on the defeat of the Government's budget as I would.

[updated Mon Jan 12 14:56:46 EST 2009]

Here's Niks budget poll:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-F08-T350.pdf

[updated Mon Jan 12 18:00:32 EST 2009]

I do not believe this current Poll, it must be one of many Liberal pollester's, Michael Ignatieff chances of being Prime Minister are as good as Dion's were, between slim and none. Canadians do not want a Prime Minister from either Ontario or Quebec for many years to come! Lets just get on with reforming the Senate and get rid of the many Liberal deadbeats their, they are totally and I mean totally useless!

[updated Mon Jan 12 18:34:28 EST 2009]

I recently sent a message to Industry Canada and its Deputy Minister, "Do not get any bright idea's but we do not want China made automobiles coming into Canada period. And the same applies to our Lumber we do not want to sell it to China either. Until their is a attitude change in China, but the chances of that are between slim and none. If you have not lived in China, they have not got a clue what is going on and totally ignorant of what individausl think of the them, Our problem is the Civil Servants in the that Department Foreign Affairs that are Liberals, they need to be cleaned out!

[updated Mon Jan 12 18:41:44 EST 2009]

The just-released complement to this poll, looking at support for an election versus asking the opposition to form a government if the budget fails to pass a confidence vote tells a very interesting story (or at least raises some interesting questions).

About half of Canadians would prefer an election, slightly fewer prefer that the opposition be given a chance to govern, and one in ten is unsure which would be better. These numbers were collected during the same period as the party preference poll, presumably as part of the same omnibus (Nik?).

Taken together, the data indicate that substantial preference for an election rather than a coalition does not translate into broad support for the Conservative Party. Given the heavy investment of resources in the air war that dominated discussion before Christmas, this is telling. It may also explain why the ads have largely stopped. I would be very interested to know if this has any connection to whether people believe that a coalition is still possible. Did you ask that, Nik?

The Quebec numbers are especially interesting; the high levels of support for a coalition government are registered while support for the Bloc has fallen rapidly. Popular coalition support does not have any connection with BQ objectives, it seems. It also raises some interesting questions for Mr. Ignatieff, who is the primary beneficiary of the BQ's fading prospects.

Although the headlines are mostly emphasizing that most Canadians prefer an election to a coalition, these numbers say that it is a fairly close thing nationally, with pockets of hardcore sentiment one way or the other and a substantial number open to persuasion or indifferent. Even in western Canada, where they admittedly don't need the help, this does not appear to serve as a defining issue for the Conservatives; Conservative support runs 21% behind support for an election. I would love to see how these responses register in a "Do you strongly/moderately support an election/opposition government?" kind of question.

I also think that these numbers show that enough Canadians support a coalition or are open to the idea that it is now likely a permanent feature of political dialogue in this country, whether a coalition happens this winter or not.

[updated Mon Jan 12 21:34:35 EST 2009]

Now we have Chinese "Made" Brake Pads being dumped in the Canadian market place, what do these lazy Civil Servants at Industry Canada, International Trade and Foreign Affairs do all day!

[updated Tue Jan 13 21:05:43 EST 2009]

Toronto Star/Angus Reid Poll:

CPC: 39

LPC: 30

NDP: 17

BQ: 9

GP: 5

In Ontario, the CPC is two points ahead of the Liberals at 42, with the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 5%. In Quebec, the Bloc is at 37 with the Liberals at 25, while in BC, the CPC is at 35 with the LPC at 29 and NDP at 28%.

Best PM: Harper at 27, Ignatieff at 24, Layton at 12, Duceppe at 3 and May at 2%.

Finally, an interesting trend, voter opinion of Ignatieff is improving while that of Harper has worsened.

In short, a poll full of glaring contradictions. If this poll is accurate, we won't see any coalition deal or budget defeat. Both the Liberals and Conservatives need to coast for a while. Again, note the uptick in Ignatieff's popularity which is contrasted by the uptick in support for the Harper government. IMHO, the ball is really up in the air.

[updated Sat Jan 17 15:16:02 EST 2009]

This is for Metro Vancouver members but others can comment:

Vancouver Sun Saturday Jan 17,2009

Olympic Village On Shaky Ground From The Start

The bottomline still is that Millenium must come up with 225 million including cost over runs for the purchase of the land period. Or the project goes to another developer. There is still time.

Whomever hired these City Managers must be fired, why are you protecting them, If need be the entire Staff at City Hall must be cleaned out. They simply have not done the job.

I'm sure glad Harper did not sucked in on this one!

[updated Sun Jan 18 00:18:07 EST 2009]

Will Afghanistan Be Harper's Waterloo?

The Harper government has been gleefully predicting that it will be doing business with the incoming Obama Administration from Day One. Sometimes, one comes to regret getting what one wished for...take Afghanistan for example: Robert Gates, the 22nd and 23rd U.S. Defense Secretary, has already mused publicly that he would like to see Canada stay in Afghanistan beyond the mission's end-date of December 2011.

Talk about trouble ahead. It is no secret that president-elect Barack Obama intends to pick up the tempo in Afghanistan as soon as he can begin the process of winding down the U.S. commitment in Iraq. I suspect that the Prime Minister already has a contingency plan for such an eventuality: Canadian troops are scheduled to begin leaving the Khandahar region in July 2011 and combat forces are expected to be out of Afghanistan by December of that year.

The end-date was made clear during the last election campaign when the PM announced that Canada was no longer committed to a re-deployment from the south as originally outlined in the motion passed by the House of Commons by a vote of 198 to 77 last March.

Does this mean that new life is about to be blown into the Manley panel's recommendation for a strategic review in 2011 should president-elect Obama push for an increased commitment from Canada when he visits Ottawa in February or March?

Again, I imagine the PM, personally speaking, may be favourably disposed to such an eventuality but he will be skating on very thin ice should he move in that direction. We may end up seeing a better Olympic performance in Ottawa than in Vancouver.

Harper is intent on making Obama one of his new best friends. That may come with a political price at home that could quite conceivably be exceedingly difficult to pay. Beware of the man presenting you with Hobson's choice.

[updated Sun Jan 18 19:34:09 EST 2009]

This is totally unrelated but...

I just learned that CNN will be broadcasting Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech... in its entirely... at 12 ET today.

It is a very rare opportunity to see it.

[updated Mon Jan 19 11:28:53 EST 2009]

Re National Post, Tolerable House, the fact is Canadians do not want a tolerable house we want accountability, we want MP's to say it like it is. And stop protecting Civil Servants and members of PSAC the union and that other Oganization called Excutive____

This is only thing Chretien could do! Protect the Civil Service, Justice still denied for the Sponsorship Program

[updated Sat Jan 31 21:14:15 EST 2009]