Harper has "poisoned the well" in parliament - path forward is uncertain

I couldn't agree more what your assessment. Harper has completely overplayed his hand.

Another important consideration, I think, is for Harper's own future as leader. Its my belief that his leadership is substantially more tenuous than people believe. Media and political watchers (myself included) love to complain about/commend/idolize/demonize/dissect/write fan lit about the tight control Harper exerts over his caucus. People - and MPs and grassroots organizers are, after all, people - resent being tightly controlled.

We've also seen just how deep the divide between the policy positions Harper has taken and the policy wishes of his party's base truly is. This was made particularly clear two weeks ago in Winnipeg.

I believe that the grass roots and caucus members of the Conservative party put up with Harper only because of his "legendary" tactical brilliance. He keeps them in power, and as long as he does, they'll tolerate him. The instant he starts to slip though, his leadership is not just in danger, but almost certain to die. I believe we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of Harper not just as PM, but as leader of the Conservatives.
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http://albertosaurustalks.blogspot.com

[updated Mon Dec 01 01:24:03 EST 2008]

Personally, I am most disappointed with Harper's actions as I rightly expected him to do everything in his power to make this parliament work. He asked for the job and he got it. He is peeved that HE did not get the majority that he believes he so rightly deserved. He almost seems to reject the fact that the opposition was elected by the same voter. He is in a position to make mischief like a naughty kid but, like those petulent kids, he will get his knucles rapped which just happened and he has had to reverse his behaviour. I wonder if historians will refer to Harper as "The Fox of the House" rather than the respected statesman he could have become. I suggest Harper has lost more than just this week in the House. Earlier I said that with this election, Harper was the best choice and, obviously, my decision was faulty.---I also said earlier that parliament would probably not function as it should until after both major parties had replaced their leaders and one party is in that process now.

[updated Mon Dec 01 01:35:09 EST 2008]

Here is the bottomline I do not want any NDP or Liberals running the country when they were not elected to do so. Eliminate the Senate it is just a out house with the Liberals in it. We do not like the EAST period. Do you get the message!

[updated Mon Dec 01 02:51:15 EST 2008]

Is everyone else living in a dreamworld?

The so-called "loyal" opposition parties are in no way fit to govern over their own parties let alone our country.

I can't believe people are still making a fuss over Harper and whatever little things he does or doesn't do "right" or to their liking, it's amazing how entirely blind sided you all are to just how bad it would be if the opposition got their wish... especially given the timing.

I often wonder if any of you blokes even bother to listen in on much CPAC to see what is really going on in parliament. (despite what some of you say)

The Conservatives are clearly the moderates of the bunch and it makes little sense for them to not be getting the support they now rightly deserve and even less to have them tossed out of government.

They've only been in power for (nearly?) 3 years, NOT EVEN A FULL TERM-- and with only a minority--yet they've managed to get a whole slew of things done that not even the last Liberal Majority can match up to.

Does it make sense to keep hating on a Government that actually accomplishes a great deal of what it sets out to do while at the same time blaming it for ever little inconvenience?

Are we all this unmanageable? People here sure do "whyne" like the dickens.

And we don't even have it 1/5th as bad as the U.S. and live in one of top countries to live in if not the best... yet is it ever enough for some of you? Appreciate what you got.

The above was directly at everyone in general who posts on this forum...
This next bit is for Nik.

"Considering that the last election was called by Stephen Harper to end a dysfunctional parliament, it would be fair to say that the Prime Minister himself in this instance has poisoned the well."

Actually, if you've been watching you'd notice that the government had done a much better job this time around and yet everyone seems to completely ignore when the opposition parties go out of hand.

Why are you trying to make it sound like everything is Harper's doing and that "he's the instigator"?

I know your just trying to strike up some debate but what with the teetering to the Left?
Thought you were supposed to be non-bias. whatever.

[updated Mon Dec 01 02:54:43 EST 2008]

Nik. I must say I am a bit surprised by your honesty and candor in this report. The conclusions you reached are fairly obvious to anyone who is not a Harper lemming. The games being played in Ottawa are really just hiding the fact Harper has no idea what to do about the global economic collapse. That of course is because there is no solution even for Canada. We are an exporting nation but can't force our products on others who are in worse shape than we are. We could lessen the effect of the global recession by creating jobs and buying our own goods. Green technology would be a great place to do that. Unfortunately if we take steps to lessen our dependence on oil and gas the people out west will blame us for destroying their economy and will be that much closer to seperation. We are in a no win situation because of this game Harper is playing . The west will be gone with the Harper government and that was his goal all along. Destroy the Liberals or the country which ever comes first.

[updated Mon Dec 01 09:21:01 EST 2008]

We need an election and who says Canadians don't want another election.
This Coalition was planned a long time ago and nothing the Stephen Harper has done would change a thing. When everything comes out in the open, I think we'll find that meetings took place right after the election to take power away from the elected government.

[updated Mon Dec 01 10:44:16 EST 2008]

Hi Nik,

Because I don't want to overly poison the well, I will be making only sporadic comments from this point on. As you may have noticed, I've been keeping some things in since 2004 but I don't want to overdo it.

Regards,

Ron

[updated Mon Dec 01 10:59:50 EST 2008]

Nik, I agree with your assessment. Harper totally misread the temper of the opposition. The Liberals in particular have been stung by the reaction to their lack of action in the previous parliament, and indicated early on that they would be changing course this time. Harper thought they were bluffing, tried a bluff of his own and has been caught out badly.

The NDP has been instrumental in leading the process of bringing together the opposition parties, and Layton's leadership credentials have been enhanced. Additionally, if a coalition is able to hold together, a number of dippers will have gained valuable cabinet experience, making them a more credible choice to govern in the future.

The big IF involved is can the Liberal party coalesce behind Stephane Dion, or failing that, find another interim leader acceptable to all leadership factions. Splits within the Liberal Party are the most likely cause if the effort to form a workable coalition fails.

[updated Mon Dec 01 12:06:37 EST 2008]

Six weeks ago, a general election returned the CPC to a greater mandate. The NDP+ BLOC negotiated a secret agenda prior to any economic update or the political welfare cut.

They all supported the throne speech. The real reason the opposition freaked was the "political party welfare cut" woke up the Liberals. Canadians don't support these parties and without welfare they know they are doomed.

Why not pull the plug and create a crisis or a coup, what do they have to lose? It was never about Canadians, stimulus, job, pensions. It was only about power and money.

The numbers of the Liberal and NDP are short of a majority. The deal with the BLOC to gain power will result in a complete betrayal of democracy.

The rules allow this power grab to take place, but the GG can send a clear message to the MP's the public spoke and your back room deals and this coup was not the result Canadians voted 6 weeks ago. A new general election with the "new coalition" vs the CPC is the fairest way to determine the intent of the voters.

The leaders of the opposition should immediately call for a convention and unite their parties to offer Canadians a clear alternative with clear policies.

Anything short of that and the voters will destroy the opposition when they have the first opportunity to vote.

This is not an oligarchy, this is a democratic country, shame on thetjugs, fascists in the opposition trying to steal the intent of the election.

[updated Mon Dec 01 12:50:00 EST 2008]

Nik, I would suggest the opposition has no interest in cooperating in the 39th or 40th agenda and needed an issue to unite all the parties.

The NDP+BLOC were already in agreement to defeat every motion, they needed the Liberals to play along.

Now the Liberals have an opportunity to govern and spend $ 30 Billion for their friends in Quebec, CAW and special interest they can not refuse the "low hanging fruit".

The question remains how many MP's of the Liberals/NDP/Bloc will attach themselves to this coalition.

I suspect we need 12 no shows to keep the status quo. I can't imagine all the wonderful calls to each MP over the thought of a new election in 6 months.

Why are the opposition leaders hiding from the media in explaining the Billions promised and the payoff to Quebec?

If they have the deal already where at the details?

[updated Mon Dec 01 13:20:17 EST 2008]

God we could have a Fool as Prime Minister, Dion the biggest joke in Canada. Campbell file for seperation now!

[updated Mon Dec 01 13:51:42 EST 2008]

Harper you have the power, Fire the Governor General and Eliminate the Senate now, Do it now, We do not want a Clown Fool running the country who was not elected.

[updated Mon Dec 01 13:56:54 EST 2008]

I do think, Nik, that we won't kow to what extent Harper has 'poisoned the well' until this all plays out.

It could well be this is all just a giant power play, and the opposition won't push this past the brink. But we won't know until next week when the actual votes happen.

Harper's not going to back down on the economic stimulus package. He think a giant bailout would be bad public policy, and thus bad for Canada, so he won't do it. The opposition might just be trying to force his hand and they want to see how far they can push it.

What Harper did do was motivate the Liberals by threatening to take away their funding. While it looks like the Bloc would be more badly hurt by the funding cut, the Liberals do have a very large debt to finance, and they NEED that government money. The Bloc could probably get by without it.

Given that, I suspect the Liberals will expedite their leadership selection, thus saving themselves a bunch of cash, and looking (as they do right now) far more effective than they did during the entire 39th parliament.

In the short term, this does seem to have breathed life into the Liberal Party, but I'm not yet confident that all the bluster we've heard from across the aisle is anything more than that.

[updated Mon Dec 01 14:08:57 EST 2008]

Harper fire the Governor General you have the power, What we have here is Western Ailination over again. The Liberals and NDP have cooked there goose in BC, We will make sure they never have a seat again in this Province! We do not want a Fool and Clown Prince in Dion. as Prime Minister. Just look at him now in Parliament 11:20 am on CBC Newworld, what a joke he is Dion.

[updated Mon Dec 01 14:21:42 EST 2008]

Liberals cannot stand not being in power, just look at the greed on Bob Rae's face on CBC Newsworld at 12:33 pm pacific, And he bankrupt Ontario, what fools we have in Eastern Canada, Also no bail out for auto industry, if you want to sell cars finance your own sales dealers, not the Banks, there is no shortage of consumers. It is the Banks after they received money to ease Credit. These are Liberal Banks.

[updated Mon Dec 01 15:36:15 EST 2008]

Am one of the 62.4% who voted other than CPC - which places me among the majority. Am delighted that the Liberals, NDP and Bloc are working together to form a government which far better represents the electorate; certainly something closer to democratic representation than we have now.

Now if only they'd start the process toward changing our voting system to one of proportional representation!

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:10:05 EST 2008]

That whirring sound is paper shredders being warmed up on the Hill. Our PM, unable to contain his pathological hatred of the opposition, has dug his party a hole that will result in Tory butts occupying the opposition benches.

This is the logical result of ideologues puting narrow partisan advantage ahead of the national interest. The opposition's advice to Harper: 'In the name of God, go.'

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:13:56 EST 2008]

Well here we are all back again - I seem to recall that my position was if Harper won a minority his political life would be short and that the economy would get him.

Did Harper ever use the Bloc to bolster his last minority????

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:14:30 EST 2008]

I am absolutely delighted with this turn of events. I remember discussing the possibility of a functional coalition with my dentist while on my back a week or so before the election. He did have me at a disadvantage at that point and I doubt either of us thought it a likely possibility. But, in retrospect, the failure of the Tories to get a majority even with the sliming ad campaigns meant to prepare the battlefield well in advance signaled the presence of an firm ceiling blocking the Tory/Reformers' majority ambitions. Since I believe it is the GG who prorogues and not the PM, I now doubt this little drama will drag on too long. A new progressive government looks more and more like a certainty and I could not be happier. I am tired of being embarrassed by Stephen Harper and his motley crew. And I bet you the crew turns on Mr. Harper with alarming vitality. Maybe Dinosaur Day also has a future as leader of the opposition too. What a strange country we live in. What a delightful Christmas present for me and my Reformer-type neighbours in the Fraser Valley. Their misery will be unbounded. Their anger and self-loathing will be a terrible thing to see.

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:22:46 EST 2008]

Quite honestly, the Conservative rhetoric likening this to an undemocratic coup, is quite ridiculous, as much as Harper will crow about a strengthened mandate, he doesn't have a majority in the house, he doesn't have a majority in popular vote, and he has made an issue of small party funding among other things into fiscal issues; which categorically they are not. How is an item which is quite important to insuring small part representation, and that is worth less then 30 Million dollars somehow a prudent target for spending reduction? Quite like the Court Challenges program valued under 5 million dollars (yet crucial to minority rights protection, and a progressive application of charter principles), this represents not fiscal prudence, but ideological bullying.

AS mentioned above the CPC does not have a majority, and as such Harper has severely misplayed his cards here. He is acting as if he has a strong majority within the house, when in fact a united opposition does have a majority. I for one am fully onside with the Liberals regaining a backbone, and the 'strong leadership' of Stephen Harper being exposed for what it truly was; the NDP and Bloc forcing the Liberals to abstain or force an election.

This time around however Dion is already gone, and so what does he or the party in general have to lose? There were many in the party, and supporters of the same that had a hard time stomaching the policy of playing nice. This time however, the gloves are off and Harper has served to temporarily (at least) unite the left-center against him. What a dumb move at a time that calls for good government, not Part Deux in the grinding of the Conservatives Ideological axe.

My main fear here, is that the Conservatives will carpet bomb the airwaves, radio stations, and newspapers with their more then adequate funds. Funds that the other parties do not have a hope of matching. Worse still, is that much like the ad blitzes pre-writ drop this past election, not a cent will count towards any sort of campaign financing limit, and more then likely some of it will be covered with tax payer money for MP mailings (like last election). Move over soft money, here comes non-temporally delineated money that can crush an opponent before one chooses when and where to drop the writ.

Bottom Line: As Harper whined to those who would listen on a Friday in Ottawa, the Election just happened, and the people of Canada have spoken. Correct, they gave the opposition parties a majority in both popular vote, and seat count. If the opposition forms a coalition, by any math; A majority in the house beats a minority, 60%+ of the popular vote beats less then 40%. It may be contra convention to allow a fractured opposition to form a government, yet it is not illegal, nor undemocratic. Elected members will represent their ridings, those with a majority in the house will form government. Any rhetoric to the contrary, defines exactly what Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party has become; bullies, arrogant, and feeling entitled. Quite what we dumped the Liberals over.

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:36:27 EST 2008]

The gloves are off, Nik, We will not respect anyone on this website that supports a Coalition Government, Harper must fire the Governor General who was appointed by the Liberal Paul Martin and replace her with someone who will say nonsense, go back to Canadians and do another Vote and keep Voting until a solid majority or solid minority, The Bloq are actually to blame for this mess, if they were not in Parliament we would not have this mess. Quebec once again is the trouble maker in this country.

[updated Mon Dec 01 16:37:53 EST 2008]

Honestly, how long does anyone think that this will last? I give it until the end of Jan 09 tops and I am only being generous because of the Xmas break in the House.

The Grits and Bloc hate each other and the NDP and Grits intensely mistrust each other. Not to mention the turmoil it has already caused within all three parties. The latest revelations about Jack and Gilles’ conspiracy to over throw the govt and that Dion will indeed lead the revolt will only intensify that angst. They can only survive by acceding to the Bloc’s demands as they will hold all the cards with nothing to lose and everything to gain. That said I hope that it happens, I agree with Iggy that it will be a complete disaster. I see that they have just announced that the economy will be handed over to four unelected former politicians. Good start, this should win the voters over. Not that they have any say in it of course. Not to worry neither will the opposition or their unelected cabal of financial geniuses because now the separatists will have “significant influence at the cabinet table” and the deciding votes in the House. In other words, total control over the Parliament.

Once they fail the country and it does all fall apart as it must, the Tories will be well positioned to sweep into power with a majority for many years to come. So in the short term this is bad for Canada but will be all for the best in the long term. I just hope that GG does not screw things up by not giving the coalition a mandate. That would be extremely unfair and biased against the Tories.

So go Jack and Gilles, get up that hill but don’t forget Stephan and all the other clowns,

We Tories will all be here when you come tumbling down and break your traitorous crowns,

Then we’ll step in fix the country with a real and proper plan,

And Jack and Gilles will be in retirement along with the hapless Stephan.

[updated Mon Dec 01 17:04:01 EST 2008]

I honestly believe the only way for the CPC to recover from this is to replace Harper with a more moderate and agreeable leader. Someone who can build a real consensus amongst the parties and gain their respect. All this exercise has shown is how bullying doesn't build a stable minority government. If Canadians saw Harper that way they would have given him a majority during either one of the last two elections. With the opposition in complete disarray now is the time to instal a new leader. With the right person there is no way they can lose the next election. Keep Harper though and it's going to be the same result all over again.

[updated Mon Dec 01 17:15:21 EST 2008]

Has anyone seen or heard from the GG. While she is yuking it up with her rich bourgeois friends in France this country is in crisis. Apparently she will not return until the 6th Dec. I guess the taxpayer funded champagne parties she is throwing for her European elitist friends is far more important than we lowly citizens. After all she is not in crisis as long as the champagne and tax dollars keep flowing that is.

The least that she could do is announce that she will support the coalition by giving them a mandate to govern. That would be bad for the markets but good news for the Tories.

[updated Mon Dec 01 17:18:21 EST 2008]

I do not know about your Province, but if this Coalition goes ahead the Liberals and the NDP are finished in British Columbia!

[updated Mon Dec 01 17:23:38 EST 2008]

I forgot to mention there will be no bail out of the Auto Industry either. There is no shortage of Consumers to buy Automobiles. The Dealers will simply have to do their own financing and ease credit to Consumers. The Banks are not doing this, so Dealers will lose and will not retain even old customers. The Banks are as much as the problem as the NDP and Liberals are in this country. Want to sell you cars in the showroom, No problem finance them yourselvers Dealers you not getting any help from Government, the CAW got greedy and the price of cars went out of site. Go sell you own!

[updated Mon Dec 01 17:47:30 EST 2008]

Western Canada has been poked in the eye, again, by an unholy eastern dominated coalition. The western provinces will have almost zero representation if this is approved by the GG, a former CBC reporter. A very sad day for Canadian democracy.

[updated Mon Dec 01 18:01:36 EST 2008]

Among the various and myriad astonishing revelations of the last few days has been the depressing but obvious fact that an awful lot of people have a very superficial understanding of our parliamentary system. A number of points bear repeating.

First, nobody in Canada votes for a "government" in any practical sense. We each vote for a Member of Parliament to represent our constituency. The head of state (QE 2 at the moment) or her representative (the GG) asks the leader of one of the parties to form a government. When one party has a majority, they get the nod. When none has a majority, the convention is that the party with the largest caucus gets first crack. Regardless, any government continues to govern only as long as they retain the confidence of Parliament. If that confidence is lost through a defeat on a matter of confidence, the GG has a couple of options. One is to ask other parties to put together a government that can demonstrate the confidence of the House of Commons. Given the fact that the country just went to the polls in October, it is unlikely that she would dissolve parliament and call new elections if another party comes forward with an agreement to govern with a majority of votes, regardless of how many parties the votes are drawn from.

Mr. Harper has not only lost the confidence of the House of Commons, he has done it in a manner that speaks to a partisan nature that precludes cooperation with those who do not share his ideology. There was no need for any of the measures he announced so provocatively in what was supposed to be an economic update. He could have followed on his Throne Speech with an update that showed a clear desire to build a unified Parliament to confront the golobal economic crisis. Instead he turned it into an ideological declaration and a dare.

Well the dare has been called, and so far Mr. harper is the only one to blink. Nik not only has it right when he says that Mr. harper has poisoned the well, he understates the case. Barring a miracle, Mr. Harper has just destroyed his leadership. Some of the angriest voices asking what he thought he was doing are from within his own party.

I expect that there will be no vote on the 8th. I expect Mr. Harper will prorogue Parliament and call it back to hear the budget in January. It would be an extrtaordinary action, given that he has not held a vote on his economic update, and it will all but seal his demise as leader, but it appears at this point to be the only thing that will buy his party the time they need to figure something - anything - out that will keep them in power.

Much of what is being said by Mr. Harper's supporters is not only incorrect and poorly informed on the law and the Constitution, it is irresponsible. It is one thing to be passionate in supporting a political view, it is another to express open contempt for our system of laws and the constitutional order. If Mr. Harper has any qualities as a leader whatsoever, he will read some of what is being said in his name and understand the need for him to turn down the heat.

The process that is unfolding is unprecedented in this country, but in the global world of Parliamentary democracies it is rather common. It is anticipated in our legal system and our Parliamentary conventions. It will play out as it will. In the meantime, some of the language that is circulating in the commentary on these developments is more than a little worrisome.

[updated Mon Dec 01 18:50:42 EST 2008]