It’s been quite a week. What should have been the launch of the Harper “good management of the economy” fiscal update ended up teetering the government on the brink of defeat.
Considering that the last election was called by Stephen Harper to end a dysfunctional parliament, it would be fair to say that the Prime Minister himself in this instance has poisoned the well.
The initial announcement to cancel the financial funding for political parties, based on the votes garnered in the federal election, effectively sideswiped what should have been a good communications week for the Harper Conservatives. Although the initiative itself is red meat for the Conservative core vote, it really is hard to tell how this could be considered a growth strategy for the Harper Conservatives. Instead, it appears to be aimed at weakening the opposition parties for Conservative political gain. It is little wonder that the opposition parties have cried foul.
Coming out of the last federal election with a strengthened mandate in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister’s post election remarks suggested that co-operation and problem solving would be the hallmarks of the next session of parliament. His first move in his second mandate reveals that he is looking to continue the divide and conquer strategy of his first mandate.
His withdrawal of the funding cancellation and delay of the confidence motion to December 8th is an acknowledgement by the PM he has overplayed his hand this time. Instead of dividing he had united the opposition parties around a common resistance to the government and likely given them a united platform to proactively attack the Conservatives on their proposed management of the economy.
Beyond quickly reversing the political funding decision and delaying the confidence motion to avoid defeat, it is hard to tell what will happen next. The Conservatives cannot govern without the opposition parties either capitulating or being divided. He has now given them resolve and temporarily, at least, united the opposition.
The latest Nanos national poll conducted earlier this month showed a tighter post-election race between the Conservatives and the Liberals, with Liberal, NDP and Green party support all up. Likewise, Canadians are in a dour mood on the economic prospects for 2009.
The risk, however, is not likely just for the Conservatives but also for the opposition parties. As Canadians worry about their job security, their savings and the future, they will likely punish the party or leader that plays politics in this time of economic turmoil.
What do you think about was has happened and what will happen?
Cheers,
NJN
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Here is the bottomline I do not want any NDP or Liberals running the country whe... more
Made In Canada Only (British Columbia) 01 Dec 02:51
Nik. I must say I am a bit surprised by your honesty and candor in this report. ... more
larryl (Ontario) 01 Dec 09:21
Is everyone else living in a dreamworld? The so-called "loyal" opposition part... more
Taylor Cutforth (Ontario) 01 Dec 02:54
Hi Larryl - Nik here (the pollster) - Thanks for the post - and for saying that ... more
(moderator) 01 Dec 09:38
titans...patience you will have a stroke. You will get your chance in 6 weeks... more
hollinm (Saskatchewan) 05 Dec 20:41
Nik, Can't wait for the next Nanos poll. I'm willing to bet that it is likely... more
RonaldODowd (Ontario) 14 Dec 20:05
Comments
Albertosaurus
I couldn't agree more what your assessment. Harper has completely overplayed his hand.
Another important consideration, I think, is for Harper's own future as leader. Its my belief that his leadership is substantially more tenuous than people believe. Media and political watchers (myself included) love to complain about/commend/idolize/demonize/dissect/write fan lit about the tight control Harper exerts over his caucus. People - and MPs and grassroots organizers are, after all, people - resent being tightly controlled.
We've also seen just how deep the divide between the policy positions Harper has taken and the policy wishes of his party's base truly is. This was made particularly clear two weeks ago in Winnipeg.
I believe that the grass roots and caucus members of the Conservative party put up with Harper only because of his "legendary" tactical brilliance. He keeps them in power, and as long as he does, they'll tolerate him. The instant he starts to slip though, his leadership is not just in danger, but almost certain to die. I believe we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of Harper not just as PM, but as leader of the Conservatives.
______
http://albertosaurustalks.blogspot.com
[updated Mon Dec 01 01:24:03 EST 2008]
01 Dec 01:24
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Tom Good
Personally, I am most disappointed with Harper's actions as I rightly expected him to do everything in his power to make this parliament work. He asked for the job and he got it. He is peeved that HE did not get the majority that he believes he so rightly deserved. He almost seems to reject the fact that the opposition was elected by the same voter. He is in a position to make mischief like a naughty kid but, like those petulent kids, he will get his knucles rapped which just happened and he has had to reverse his behaviour. I wonder if historians will refer to Harper as "The Fox of the House" rather than the respected statesman he could have become. I suggest Harper has lost more than just this week in the House. Earlier I said that with this election, Harper was the best choice and, obviously, my decision was faulty.---I also said earlier that parliament would probably not function as it should until after both major parties had replaced their leaders and one party is in that process now.
[updated Mon Dec 01 01:35:09 EST 2008]
01 Dec 01:35
36 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Here is the bottomline I do not want any NDP or Liberals running the country when they were not elected to do so. Eliminate the Senate it is just a out house with the Liberals in it. We do not like the EAST period. Do you get the message!
[updated Mon Dec 01 02:51:15 EST 2008]
01 Dec 02:51
53 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Taylor Cutforth
If they do, they'll be more than just one province wanting to separate...
[updated Mon Dec 01 03:14:00 EST 2008]
01 Dec 03:14
larryl
Taylor . Glad to see you have figured out the hidden agenda of the Reform /Alliance party.
[updated Mon Dec 01 09:36:34 EST 2008]
01 Dec 09:36
wyly
seperation? Dream on, conservatives live in a fantasy world created by the first past the post electoral system. If a vote on seperation ever occured in the west a combined vote of liberals, NDP, Green and moderate conservatives would crush that thought in a heartbeat.
[updated Mon Dec 01 10:40:30 EST 2008]
01 Dec 10:40
I doubt it they do not have the brains, Harper is smarter than all of them combined, Can you imagine Chow as Immigration Minister, all the Chinese Communist will be let in! Did you think about that?
[updated Mon Dec 01 13:30:39 EST 2008]
01 Dec 13:30
wyly
ahh add a bit of racism to the debate, nice...well that does verify what many suspect of the conservatives....must kill you to have a black GG who is about to turf your heroes from office
[updated Mon Dec 01 18:55:40 EST 2008]
01 Dec 18:55
islandcynic
Made in Canada Only....
How can you be a believer in the pretender when your Harper is such a worshiper of the free markets that anything but is Made in Canada because of all the ideology they carry. Made in Canada is a pipe dream under Herr Harper.
[updated Wed Dec 03 01:56:45 EST 2008]
03 Dec 01:56
Scholar
We exist under the illusion (mostly created by the media) that we elect a government or a Prime Minister. We do no such thing.
We actually elect 308 individual members of Parliament, and in a Parliamentary Democracy they can organize themselves once they get to Ottawa in any fashion that establishes a working majority. The only thing we can say for sure is that Canadians since Stephen Harper didn't control a majority of MPs, and he tried to act as though he did, he has failed as Prime Minister. Constitutional Convention allows the Governor General to ask someone else to try before calling an election so soon after the last one.
[updated Mon Dec 01 08:10:24 EST 2008]
01 Dec 08:10
Non-aligned in Toronto
Why call yourself "made in Canada." Why not "made in the West"? Regionalist separatism, whether from the West of from Quebec, is the biggest single factor holding Canada back.
[updated Mon Dec 01 12:20:50 EST 2008]
01 Dec 12:20
And Ontario and Toronto are holding back BC and Alberta did you ever consider than!!!
[updated Mon Dec 01 13:31:49 EST 2008]
01 Dec 13:31
Non-aligned in Toronto
The economy of Canada and it's regions have their ups and downs. At the moment, the West id flying high, and Ontario is hurting. This has not always been the case nor will it always be the case.
I am happy for western Canadians in their current prosperity, but caution that a commodity and resource economy can tank in one heck of a hurry.
For many years, Ontario was the economic engine of the entire country, and always willingly did our part to ensure our fellow Canadians got services and money to help them through their hard times.
That's what being a Canadian has always meant to me. (Please note, I'm originally from Western Canada)
[updated Mon Dec 01 13:46:18 EST 2008]
01 Dec 13:46
Lex Llewdor
How, exactly, does separatism hold back Canada?
[updated Mon Dec 01 19:25:33 EST 2008]
01 Dec 19:25
Lex Llewdor
The Senate, actually, is what the opposition should have used to stop the campaign financing bill.
The opposition could have complained, but let the bill pass the House. And then killed it in the Senate. They could have made good arguments about how the Senate - as the government's "sober second thought" - thought this "fundamental change" to the way Canadian politics works needed to be thought through and debated more fully. This would have been fine. While Harper can appoint Senators, he already established the exact conditions under which he would do so, and this aren't those.
So the opposition could have used the Senate to stop this bill to save their public funding.
Instead they decided to make political hay.
They didn't have to. But they wanted to.
[updated Mon Dec 01 13:41:57 EST 2008]
01 Dec 13:41
hollinm
Lex....I do not believe the Senate can hold up money bills or a budget. That is one thing they cannot get their grimy little paws on.
[updated Mon Dec 01 21:57:52 EST 2008]
01 Dec 21:57
Lex Llewdor
Yes they can; They just can't introduce money bills.
Everything has to pass the Senate. The Senate can defeat any bill.
[updated Tue Dec 02 14:10:18 EST 2008]
02 Dec 14:10
hollinm
Lex...the Senate does not introduce any bills. Everything originates in the House of Commons. They are the legislators.
You may be right but I thought I heard they cannot hold up money bills.
[updated Tue Dec 02 15:42:41 EST 2008]
02 Dec 15:42
Lex Llewdor
The Senate can introduce legislation. They just don't.
Jeez, what do they teach in schools these days?
[updated Tue Dec 02 16:47:12 EST 2008]
02 Dec 16:47
mathilda
What a red neck comment..You should be ashamed of your self
Mathilda
[updated Mon Dec 01 17:42:45 EST 2008]
01 Dec 17:42
Mathilda the Red Necks are in Alberta!
[updated Tue Dec 02 00:24:39 EST 2008]
02 Dec 00:24
titans
Oh please
Democracy and rule of law is in play here... so it is right for Harper when he was in opposition to form a government with the BLoc and NDP when he wanted Liberal leader Martin out of Power and he Harper sign on a coalition government- with the Bloc and NDP which they handed to the then Governor General "Adrian Clarkeson" why was that not an issue then?? when he was looking for a marriage with the Bloc to defeat the Paul Martin government then?? and why is it an issue now when the opposition are doing the same??
Canadians are happy to see opposition that care for Canadians facing hard Economic times.
Who supported Harper in the 2006 Budget hands down?? Bloc
and the throne speech?? Bloc
and now he Harper calls them names???
and Harper gets a hands down on sneaky taping private members sessions?? very embarrassing internationally for Canadians... who does this remind you off?? that was taping private citizens phones?? Bush
[updated Mon Dec 01 19:49:08 EST 2008]
01 Dec 19:49
Lex Llewdor
The Conservative who recorded that call was invited to take part. It's not like it was a secret government wiretap.
[updated Mon Dec 01 19:56:28 EST 2008]
01 Dec 19:56
titans
what?? and you sincerely expect intelligent Canadians to believe that?? this is not a grade 3 class you are addressing... the conservatives playing Bush games of taping private conversations??? not acceptable.. I'm glad NDP is looking at it's legal options.. shame shame!!! for Canadians politics eavesdropping is not a Canadian way of politics only Americans do that...
65% of Canadians have spoken through the MP's that they send to the house of commons to represent them... and if Harper wants to take them to court so be it... he will lose..
unless Harper and the Conservatives think that all the MP's in the opposition are not democratically elected?? that is the question they should answer to the Canadian... who elected this opposition MP's to the house of Commons...
[updated Mon Dec 01 21:15:31 EST 2008]
01 Dec 21:15
Lex Llewdor
But it's true. Even the NDP admits they invited the guy (by accident) into the conversation. They say he should have done the right thing and left before he heard anything, but the fact remains he was invited into the call.
[updated Tue Dec 02 14:11:13 EST 2008]
02 Dec 14:11
titans
Oh please stop twisting stories on here, do you really believe we don't follow news or check facts?? NDP leader said loud and clear during question period in the house of commons that the conservative government taped their caucus meeting illegally and that you can check on the Cpac news Archives on the broadcast.. please don't spin your tales on here.. the conservatives were caught red handed snooping and that is unethical and unacceptable to all Canadians.. we do not trust a snooping government in Sussex Drive.. who will they be snooping on next?? ordinary Canadians?? George Bush style?? no! no! they must be voted out on the no confidence vote which is legal and democratic.. by 65% of Canadians through their elected members of parliament in the house of commons!
[updated Tue Dec 02 22:29:17 EST 2008]
02 Dec 22:29
Lex Llewdor
Again, where do you get that 65% number? Show me how you calculated that.
[updated Wed Dec 03 15:00:56 EST 2008]
03 Dec 15:00
Lex Llewdor
And if it was illegal, why no charges? We know exactly who taped it.
[updated Wed Dec 03 15:01:34 EST 2008]
03 Dec 15:01
titans
scared - you should be.. petty political tricks and eavesdropping by a PM of conservative party to use it against his opponent is not acceptable even just the morals of the whole affair leaves little to be desired. how uncouth can one party be.. if indeed the conservative snoop ( mistakenly listened in! what would have been the right thing to do of any decent individual?? know it is a wrong number and move on..and puts the phone down.if that was your argument..it does not ring true. Harper and the conservatives tapped an opposition leaders phone and that it illegal. NDP leader confirmed that on question period and those are the facts
[updated Wed Dec 03 23:40:38 EST 2008]
03 Dec 23:40
Lex Llewdor
He didn't listen in mistakenly. HE WAS INVITED.
He knew they'd invited him by accident, but they had invited him, so he listened. And recorded.
All perfectly legal. The NDP was just sloppy.
[updated Thu Dec 04 17:43:23 EST 2008]
04 Dec 17:43
titans
Bullies and snoopy conservatives and coward Harper hiding behind GG's skirt.. third world countries have better democracy- what a disgrace!
[updated Thu Dec 04 21:11:24 EST 2008]
04 Dec 21:11
Lex Llewdor
How would you define "better" as it relates to democracy?
I'd look at what outcomes it produces, since the process isn't worth a damn if it still leaves all the people in squalid poverty.
[updated Fri Dec 05 14:13:02 EST 2008]
05 Dec 14:13
titans
harper's actions have left Canadians with a false democracy machine called the house of commons.. I guess we should all remain the queens subjects with her stooge in power- like the world is saying.. same as Banana Republics or colonies.. no difference..
[updated Fri Dec 05 15:36:19 EST 2008]
05 Dec 15:36
Lex Llewdor
We are the Queen's subjects. We've always been the Queen's subjects.
Do you not like that the viceroy controls the mechanisms of government? Then complain about that.
Were you complaining about it before now, or are you just upset now because it produced an outcome you don't like?
I don't really care if Keith Olbermann doesn't understand our monarchy.
[updated Fri Dec 05 15:56:11 EST 2008]
05 Dec 15:56
titans
Ha!!ha!! The queens subjects with a right to elect their representatives to represent them in the house of commons - and that means if they find that the PM is not doing his Job right they hold a vote of confidence to kick him out!!
Most Canadians understand that maybe the people in Western Canada do not.. go read your constitution again maybe you skipped that part.. Democracy in Canada must be upheld at all costs... Harper must avail himself for the vote of confidence id he is a real man... why should Canadians allow a coward in office??
read more... The whole world is well informed on the Canadian democratic system.. are you?? I doubt...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7765206.stm
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/05/world/americas/05canada.html?_r=1&ref=world
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/547915
[updated Fri Dec 05 16:40:34 EST 2008]
05 Dec 16:40
Lex Llewdor
Okay, so you understand the first part. The the elected members of parliament don't think the PM is doing his job, they hold a vote of confidence to defeat his government. You have that part right.
So what's the problem? The elected members had a chance to defeat Harper (the throne speech) and they didn't. So, I ask again, what's the problem? Harper's still PM because he hasn't been defeated in the House. If the opposition had actually bothered to vote against someone they think is doing a terrible job, then Harper would already be gone and Dion would be PM.
But they didn't. Since the election, the House of Commons has had one confidence vote, and it voted for the government.
So why are you so angry?
[updated Sun Dec 07 18:23:15 EST 2008]
07 Dec 18:23
titans
Wrong.. the Opposition in house of representative never voted! Harper ran away and hide behind the GG those are the facts...and Harper has no business telling them when they should vote.. that is not Canadian democracy!
[updated Mon Dec 08 13:30:00 EST 2008]
08 Dec 13:30
Lex Llewdor
You're aware the throne speech is followed by a vote, right? And that that vote is a confidence vote? And that that vote took place and it passed the house.
Either you're not paying attention, or you have no idea how parliament works.
[updated Thu Dec 11 14:13:11 EST 2008]
11 Dec 14:13
Let's be perfectly clear.
The braintrust in the opposition have stated Cadman affair was illegal: RCMP cleared it and now Libs have 3.5 million lawsuit.
The opposition claimed the election was illegal. FACT
The idiotic NDP organizers did not double check the names of the people on the list and invited the wrong person to listen in. FACT
Just like Palin who had a joke played on her, her STAFF screwed up.
Everytime the opposition are caught looking stupid, foolish, partisan, libel they used the term word illegal.
Thankfully the Police and the courts decide are not on the Union "Payroll".
[updated Wed Dec 03 15:13:52 EST 2008]
03 Dec 15:13
titans
Rubbish they tapped the NDP's leaders Phone!! and they should be ashamed of themselves.. minority is a minority..out out..
[updated Wed Dec 03 23:23:12 EST 2008]
03 Dec 23:23
Patricia BC
I react with alarm at the scheming machinations of PM Harper/Heibert MP. His economic update surprises (not hinted at in the campaign) with its cuts to voter reinvestment rebates, denial of the squandered reserves and manoeuvre to create the most toxic parliamentary atmosphere in history has been appalling!
Harper's promise to behave more civilly has disappeared in a wink. He’s revealed he’s incapable of good faith dealing – then sends the minions to spin fear mongering yet again, to be attack dogs. The scripted extreme messages the neo-con sheep bullies are shouting to any media that will listen affirms that political ideology, not Canada’s best interests, are driving this theatrical drama - since they scored to write “the play”. Curious slip of tongue by Harper in the House Dec 1st Question Period: “Mr. President” . . . a reveal of yet another piece of his hidden agenda - are we to become a state of the USA? There were 13.6 million votes cast in the Nov 15/08 election for the NDP, Liberals, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives. The Conservatives got just over 5 million of the total votes - meaning they only received 38% of the total votes cast by all Canadians. The Conservatives do not have the mandate of the majority of Canadians - not even close - and they cannot act and rule this country like they do. The coalition has a majority of seats - 164 to the Tory 143. The coalition is supported by 64% of Canadians; Steve by only 36%.
Coalition governments have worked elsewhere – as the majority of Canadians did NOT choose Harper, perhaps this is the best way to save Canada from more wilful damage.
[updated Mon Dec 01 23:53:31 EST 2008]