New Nanos National Poll - CP, 32%, LP 30%, NDP 20%, GP 10%, BQ 9%

Well well it appears that Canadians are having second thoughts about Harper and his band of incompetent clowns. The very fact that Liberal supporters sat on their hands in the last election was of some comfort to me because they didn't and couldn't vote for Harper or lyin Jack, the greens, etc.

And with the Libs getting a NEW LEADER they should get lots or press while the economy goes down the tubes from Tory mismanagement.

I believe the Libs will try and topple the cons b/f the end of this year.

[updated Wed Nov 19 16:46:50 EST 2008]

Honestly - i think conservative supporters just don't answer telephone polls as much between elections. This is about what we saw from nic's numbers just before the election - where suddenly they jumped up and stayed fairly high thru the election, and now nosedive back to where they've been for a while.

It is interesting to note that almost every pollster missed calling this election badly.

I think that there's going to have to be a serious rethink about how we conduct polls to gain better accuracy. I have seen absolutely zero increase in liberal support around here, nor have i heard of any anywhere else, nor is there really an event that would tend to suggest there should be (other than dion quitting, which admittedly might bump them up a bit. The guy was an albatross around their neck).

Something's changed, and we're just not seeing the kind of accuracy we used to. Perhaps voters are just more volitile, or perhaps more people refuse to take polls.

[updated Wed Nov 19 16:51:07 EST 2008]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081118.weconomy19/BNStory/politics/home

"OTTAWA — Jim Flaherty may be set to become the first federal finance minister in nearly 40 years to oversee a return to budget deficits,"

IHS Global Insight Canada managing director Dale Orr said Mr. Flaherty and the Conservatives should have taken better precautions against a deficit, noting they cut some rainy-day cushions and drove program spending up 13.8 per cent in their first two years.

It's also hard to find an economist who supports the Conservatives' decision to forgo $11-billion of annual revenue and cut the goods and services tax by two points, instead of using that fiscal room for productivity-enhancing, broad-based income-tax cuts.

That notwithstanding, Mr. Orr said, he believes Mr. Flaherty “is certainly the best person in the Conservative cabinet to be the finance minister.”

"If Ottawa runs a deficit in the 2009-2010 fiscal year, as bank economists have predicted, it will be the first in 13 years. It will also be the first time Ottawa has slid into the red from a surplus since 1970-1971.

That's despite the fact that Mr. Flaherty – a soldier in Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution – declared several times this year that he wouldn't be the finance minister who oversees the return of deficits."

[updated Wed Nov 19 17:26:02 EST 2008]

It is far too early to determine what the trend will be in the coming days/weeks.

However, there is one thing I have noted. The government is being much more proactive about promoting and explaining their agenda. That is a good thing, The Libs, NDP and Bloc will have a hard time getting away with their sometimes outrageous comments about what the government is doing when government ministers are front and centre.

It is also clear we as a country are in for a tough ride and the government is signalling that everyday. They are making the right noises and that is good. Keep Canadians in the loop.

Canadians will decide whether they are doing the right things over time and not the opposition parties.

[updated Wed Nov 19 17:58:24 EST 2008]

It all goes to show that elections are related to the stock market whose prime motivating force is emotion rather than common sense. The volatity of the voter at large is surprising but looking back at recent previous elections it is easy to see those surprising swings when something negative pops up or is deliberately introduced into the election process.

The fact a new Liberal leader is in the offing has to be positive for the Grits. The deficit word is a negative and, seemingly, the electorate expects the Government to have some foolproof crystal ball in these economic times to predict the future begs common sense. One usually has difficulty predicting the future in their own family with stable economic times but governments are supposed to have Extra Sensory Perception ? ? ?Governments are made up of people like you and me with all our flaws but Governments employ a trained Civil Service to give them the best advice possible but even that is not flawless assuming Ministers listen.

Yes, job losses in the manufacturing belt understandably will be a big negative when Government, at this moment, appears to have no plan to implement. This is where the "huge" Unemployment Insurance surplus should be readily available to give some relief. The melt down of the Alberta Heritage Fund must be a real shocker to the core area of Conservative support and a further discussion of a cutback in Alberta's per capita spending must be another shocker for Conservativeland. It would seem to me common sense to cut back provincial spending when the bottom has been knocked out of your revenues.

I believe another consideration has to have come out of the Winnipeg Policy Convention where the far right of the party---the Reform element--- indicated they were alive and well and they "would have their way" if at all possible-----if not now, then in the future. They got the press and, in my opinion, they have somewhat devalued the Conservative persona in the eyes of the electorate at large. I referred to this particular aspect as Harper's threat from within.

One positive is that time heals all and the electorate has a short term memory and usually no long term memory.

[updated Wed Nov 19 18:26:04 EST 2008]

The next election is a long way off. What was the purpose of this poll? Seems rather useless except for a few political junkies to argue over.

[updated Wed Nov 19 18:41:12 EST 2008]

Warning Warning do not listen to any Liberals or the EDC about exporting to China, Civil unrest is happening and Canadian (BC) companies are not getting paid by Chinese Banks, Do not let a Chinese in Canada scam you about investing or visiting China!!!!!
Stay Away For Your Own Good!!!!!!!

[updated Wed Nov 19 22:24:57 EST 2008]

I was a little surprised with this poll and the direction it's going in. It's immaterial . It has no significance now that the election is over , other than to satisfy the curiosity of some of us (me included). It has no intrinsic value.

Nik's comments on the Mike Duffy show were spot on. So I won't rehash them here.
I cannot help but think that Harper's response to the economy crisis and reaction to the convention in Winnipeg will be eroding his popularity over time.

As Tom so often reminds us governments engineer their own demise.

[updated Thu Nov 20 08:28:01 EST 2008]

Rubbish ! The "Greens" at 10% more like .01%.This poll is worthy of the trash bin.

[updated Thu Nov 20 08:35:01 EST 2008]

Certainly some of the Liberal rebound will be as a result of the Dion resignation, although I think voters may well find Rae and Ignatieff equally unpalatable. I think the drop in Conservative support is largely Harper's pre-election comments about recession, deficits and the market (bargain hunting anyone? the markets off another 3000 points since then!) coming back on him.

We are pretty much back to where we were a month before the election. A lot will depend, going forward, on how Harper conducts himself and his Party in Parliament over the next few months, and on his first budget.

[updated Thu Nov 20 12:01:20 EST 2008]

Martha Hall Findley is acting like a bit of an ass in Parliament right now at 11:41 am pacific do you not think, Habs was this your choice for Leader of the Liberal Party, I think so!

[updated Thu Nov 20 14:42:09 EST 2008]

Deflation now tops policy-makers' hit list

Cars are piling up in storage because dealers don't want bloated inventories. Chinese factories are running out of room for all the appliances they're turning out but can't ship. The prices of flat-screen TVs are plummeting; and Americans are so sure housing prices will continue falling that they would rather wait than take the plunge back into real estate.

These are some of the disquieting signs that the once-distant spectre of deflation is looming larger on the horizon, now that economies around the world have fallen into the iron grip of a deep recession.

The latest news has only added to growing fears that the existing global credit mess and feeble economies could be the springboard for a crippling bout of deflation of the sort that derailed the once-thriving Japanese economy for about a decade.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081119.wdeflation20/BNStory/Business/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp

[updated Thu Nov 20 18:04:47 EST 2008]

I’m a westerner that voted Con last election and I will not be happy with a deficit. However the odds of the Liberals ever getting my vote is about as likely as them trying to get my vote. I will be watch the Liberal leadership race and listening intently. I’m cynical and I highly highly doubt they’ll even try to resonate out here is Saskatchewan. The Liberal party here is a joke they were under 10% of the vote for the last provincial election they’d be under 10% federally too if it wasn’t for Goodale. Most of the candidates they ran were Green party quality in their knowledge and experience. This would be all fine and great if you’re a hard core Con however some of us would like a realistic choice (no the NDP isn’t one). Here’s to hoping the Liberals try to resonate out here otherwise I’ll just keep stumbling into the voting booth to mark my X by the Con again next time.
Cheers Chris

[updated Fri Nov 21 00:18:53 EST 2008]

Here's a report by the Commons guy who was appointed by Harper and has given /flaherty failing grades.
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/540348

" The report by Kevin Page, the new Parliamentary Budget Officer, concludes that the federal Conservatives are likely to run budget deficits "in the near term," possibly beginning this year, and that the fault lies as much with Flaherty as it does with the weak economy."

Further.........

"Page says the deterioration of the federal government's financial picture in the first nine months of 2008 is not so much the result of the weakened economy as Flaherty's policies, particularly the latest reduction in the GST tax and reduced corporate income taxes. This has caused federal revenues to decline by $353 million in the first nine months of this year.
Assuming no changes in Flaherty's policies, "the downgraded economic outlook suggests the government would record modest and temporary deficits in the near term," Page says."

[updated Fri Nov 21 01:06:05 EST 2008]

Budget chief's deficit forecast forces Ottawa to face reality
$3.9-billion shortfall estimate leaves Flaherty weighing amount of spending necessary to stave off recession

Why the economic outlook appears gloomy

1. Plunging commodity prices will reduce the government's revenue

by shrinking corporate profits and personal incomes.

2. Exports will slump because of weaker demand from the United States

and other countries, making layoffs at factories likely.

3. The government's decision to cut the Goods

and Services Tax and boost spending has

shrunk the surplus to its smallest in years.

4. Canada's economy is on track to grow at a fraction

of the 1.7-per-cent pace the government expected

in February, and even risks contracting.

5. Consumer and business confidence has deteriorated
=============================================

This article is typical of biased idealogy or fuzzy math.

A solution agreed to by the G20 is a financial stimulus to increase or spur spending by all groups.

Consumer and business confidence has MELTED: orders inventory are not moving. Trust in our financial industry has evaporated as massive bailouts and halving of pensions are being reported daily.

Until the Banks lend: Business and consumers spend again we are heading towards the "recession/depression" model.

The suggestion lowering the GST by 2% is responsible for NOT stimulating consumer spending and only emptying the federal coffers is INACCURATE. We have had modest growth in the last 2 years. 2009 will see much bigger Revenue shortfalls as EXPORTS vanish.

It's not about our national domestic economy, we are dependent on EXPORTING our good and services for our economic health.

I agree with non-essential spending needs to be FROZEN and CUT but the CPC wants to get re-elected and cutting the programs regardless of necessity will be played by the media, premiers, opposition as attacks and "idealogical mean spirited" based decisions.

I don't think spending between $10-26 Billion on "projects" will fix the "problem" in Canada. It is beyond our borders.

Having the CPC/Liberal Party agree on budget cuts in a cooperative fashion would be nice optics but I don't live in Disneyland.

Expect a return to a bitter HOC with Liberal leaders blaming the CPC for not waving the magic wand and not hoarding billions for rainy day. The aggressive Martin downloading to the provinces won't be adopted by the CPC, so look for modest across the board freezes and cuts in spending.

Proof is the opposition platforms to increase ARTS funding of the Federal Government by $100+ million in the election campaign. They have no genuine interest in supporting the tough measures.

Anyone believe anyother "reality" in the HOC going forward?

Harper will try to keep his party from appearing "mean-spirited" but will push his agenda through when the other parties continue to attack and blame idealogy for the global economy and refuse to cooperate.

Increasing taxes is the NDP, Bloc, Liberal idea to pay for their "needed" social programs.

[updated Fri Nov 21 09:00:47 EST 2008]

Bank meltdown a matter of trust
Andrew Willis, today at 7:52 AM EST

Here's a simple explanation for what's ailing banks in general and Citigroup in particular: There's a lack of trust.

Citi can drop 20-something per cent for two straight days because investors who aren't Saudi billionaires have lost confidence in its management. They don't have faith in executives who blame others for what are clearly self-inflicted problems. As TD Waterhouse pointing out Friday, “ Management is blaming short-sellers, but they also appear to be at fault with some questionable balance-sheet maneuvers that included the unwinding of its SIVs and the reclassification of about $80-billion in assets so that they would not have to be marked to market prices.”

As we saw with Lehman Brothers, this can end badly, and quickly. The Wall Street Journal is reporting Friday that Citi's board of directors is beginning to consider radical strategic moves – a bust up or sale of the bank.

Citi's market capitalization is now much smaller than that Royal Bank of Canada's, and on par with the mid-tier Canadian players. And Cit, remember, is expected to write a $13-billion cheque for its share of the BCE buyout loans by Dec. 11.

The credibility issue looms large at Citi, but hangs over other banks too. When Toronto-Dominion Bank highlights its ability to avoid the credit mess, then takes a $350-million writedown on its $10-billion proprietary credit portfolio, the stage is set for Thursday's one-day, 13-per-cent drop in the stock.

Once lost, trust is devilishly difficult to rebuild. It will be some time before the banks enjoy premium valuations.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/streetwise?cid=al_gam_nletter_maropen

[updated Fri Nov 21 10:33:02 EST 2008]

How many of you out there are as amazed as I am that a month ago Harper was saying how sound and safe our economy was? Now he thinks deficits are essential. Bob Rae did exactly what Harper is about to do . Rae tried to spend his way out of a recession and still gets blamed for the mess Ontario got into. When the economy turns around in 5 or 6 years we will just go back to the same policy that got the world into this fiasco. I am a retired electrician but could see this coming months ago and said so on this site in May. I could have told you sooner but only joined this illustrious group of experts during that month. I have been told by the real experts here that I am ignorant ,ill informed and don't have a clue about anything . Sure am glad I'm not as knowledgeable as some of you think you are. How long before WW3 starts to stimulate the world out of this economic mess? Maybe if we got out of phoney wars we could spend those billions rebuilding our country instead of blowing one up to rebuild it. We would at least create a few jobs at Timmy's for all those soldiers coming home. Can you imagine a franchise on every military base?

[updated Sun Nov 23 10:00:13 EST 2008]