On the Harper election win (Nanos Sun Column)

I completely agree that the voters opted for a steady hand on the economy and voted for Harper; he is clearly the best leader given our uncertain times. Dion's Green Shift was a political loser from the start.
The Conservatives made a serious political blunder when they cut funding for the arts and subsequently took a big hit in Quebec which may have cost them a majority government.

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:02:17 EST 2008]

Harper had solid support from firearms owners. The CPC are the only party that have listened to the concerns of the firearms community and have responded in a reasonable way about firearms crime.
Harper has made it clear that he believes there is no relationship between lawfully owned firearms and thugs and criminals misusing firearms in a criminal way on the streets.

Unlike Ann MCcLelland, when in power, Stockwell Day has taken a reasoned approach to a handgun ban and has refused to parrot the canned responses that McClellan did when she was minister.

For that, Harper gained some pretty solid vote as well as financial support.

He now must deliver on his promise to dismantle the long gun registry and begin a move to re-write the Firearms Act. If he doesn't. he could see the loss of a couple of million votes next time.

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:12:31 EST 2008]

Very nice analysis, and quite interesting about the Sunday spike. I'm curious about Green support - one might have thought that it should have dropped more as voters moved to the safer economic management of the Conservatives...?

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:29:01 EST 2008]

I agree. As a centrist I was most disappointed in the hearing acuity of the Liberal leadership and said so in my letters (note the plural) to Dion over the past year but, understandably, received narry a reply. The Harper Conservatives are not perfect, but what political party is, and they are the best bet for Canada considering the alternatives. No party stays in power forever so the Conservatives do not have a stranglehold on the levers of government and a minority situation makes it imperative the the new government tries to govern closer to the centre where most Canadians feel reasonably comfortable politically. If the Conservatives do manage to stake claim closer to the centre, then they are almost assured a majority the next time around as the Canadian electorate would likely support an encumbent government that is fair and just no matter what the opposition would offer-----and let's hope the opposition would have a well presented platform the next time around.

The Liberals have to clean house in the thinking and policy department and buy new batteries for their hearing aids. Dion is not helping this process of "renewal" by clinging to leadership and living in his fantasy land while blaming the Conservatives for his self imposed misfortunes. Dion is delaying the process of "renewal". Martin knew when to quit but, unfortunately, most political "leaders" have to wait for the Order of the Boot to be conferred.

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:32:36 EST 2008]

The sad part of this whole exercise is that fewer people took the time to vote. We have to figure out a way to get people interested in who runs our country. I still believe if people were not told what the results will be before they go out to vote the turnout would have been higher.The result could have been the same but we will never know. In the next campaign I would like to see more people show up and if they are not happy with the options they have , they should reject their ballot. Instead of voting against a party as the ABC campaign told people to do they would show their rejection of all parties without actually cost us more money from E.C. for each vote cast. Ten million people did not vote and that adds up to about 18 million we saved in funding any political party, Next time I hope 20 million show up and reject their ballots saving us 35 million . The results will be the same but we won't be giving them more money to fund an unnecessary election campaign. Let's start the RYB campaign now and maybe they will think twice about calling another unnecessary election if they know they won't get any more of our money.
REJECT YOUR BALLOT. RYB.

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:53:36 EST 2008]

Hi Nik,

Your analysis seems all well and good.

But with all due respect, on the face of it it appears to be mere speculation.

You do not set out the basis for your conclusions:

“My sense is “

“By the closing weekend a number of factors helped the Conservatives regain the economic high-ground….”.

“ . . . likely rang true for many Canadians”.

“…minimized strategic voting”

“…Canadians heard…”

“The other outcome of the holiday weekend political chat…”

“…the holiday chatter rendered a negative judgment …”

Was this based on some survey you conducted, either at the end of the campaign or on the compilation of surveys conducted during the campaign? Is this based on anecdotal evidence? Was it a Vulcan mind meld on your TV set while watching the results? If it is some kind of educated guess, what are you basing it on? And more importantly, to what extend can one give it weight in making their decisions?

“Conservatives can rightly claim victory…”

Many people in Canada would hardly refer to the results of the election as being a victor either for Harper or the Conservative. It certainly wasn’t a victory for the people of Canada. Harper’s rational for the election was that he could not run the country because he had a minority. He cost the Canadian purse over $320,000,000 to ends up with another minority. Many people in Canada would be hard pressed to point to a winner. (See, speculation is easy)

Lloyd MacIlquham

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:57:54 EST 2008]

I think that the Conservatives had the strongest support that was most likely to go & vote. In fact I think Nik had survey results that showed this as well. One of the reasons in my opinion was the advertising. The Conservatives continually plugged away at Dion & his 'carbon tax' proposal & as much as Jack Layton wanted to be PM, in reality that will never happen. With the amount of money raised by the Conservatives and to an extent the NDP, both bashing Dion & the LPC platform, it makes sense that the CPC increased their support at the expense of the LPC. And with the Liberals dragging out their old baggage of Jean Chretien & doing their last minute appeals & fear-mongering to the new Canadians, I think it reminded some Canadians that there is an alternative to "the natural governing party" & that we were heading in the right direction with Harper.

[updated Tue Nov 04 16:59:01 EST 2008]

Nik: First, thanks very much for hosting this forum. Although I didn't post very often I really enjoyed it.

Interesting last three days numbers. I think you are probably right that there was much discussion over the turkey and a significant number of people made up their minds at the last minute.

I do wonder however, if Harper's missed opportunity in Quebec about culture and crime was really an error or deliberate. Harper strikes me as a very astute politician and I am very supprised that he would make such a fundamental misjudgement of how his remarks would be taken in Quebec - a Quebec that he was expecting to give him a majority. Could it be that the CPC is setting up to play hardball with Quebec?

As a CPC supporter, I am obviously pleased with the results. Harper will be able to govern as though he had a majority for a significant period of time. I don't see either the Liberals or the NDP wanting another election within the next 2 to 3 years. We may in fact go the full 4 years before another election.

My expectation is that the Liberals will be more afraid of an election than the NDP and so we will see a repeat of the last parliament where the Liberals will either support the government or abstain while the NDP will cry crocidile tears about how the CPC is hurting the poor "average Canadian around his dinner table".

The real concern I have is rebuilding of the LPC.

I haven't seen any sign yet that they will turn inward and look at what is wrong with their party. Until they are willing to admit that they actually lost the confidence and support of Canadians, they will not take the time to rebuild.

Canada needs two parties that can be government - right now we have only one.

The NDP will never be an acceptable alternative for the vast majority of Canadians. They know this and so have the luxury of taking any position they want without ever being held accountable.

The only real alternative to the CPC is the LPC and they will not be an alternative again until the put their house in order.

The one party who might want an election in the near future (2-3 years) is the CPC. If the LPC doesn't get its house in order and learn to fundraise under the new rules it may will be that the CPC will manufacture a reason for an early election to finish crushing the Libs.

[updated Tue Nov 04 17:04:10 EST 2008]

We are not worried about Quebec in the first place, We can have a Minority forever under Harper, to keep these clones of Trudeau, Chretien,Martin,and other Liberals out of Power. We in Western Canada do like the Liberals period they give everything to these whinning Quebecers.

[updated Tue Nov 04 17:05:56 EST 2008]

the economy was indeed the big hit in the election and it was no surprise that dion was rejected. taxation is a big issue to people in this country who believe (rightly so) that we are over taxed. what i do not know is whether dion could have sold this idea in better economic times or whether someone with better communication skills could have sold that plan irregardless of the economy. canadians made the right choice in my mind, with now not being the time to experiment.
as far as the voter turnout goes, not to begrudge this blogs host but i think the constant inundation of polling turned many off. conservatives stayed home, content in the knowledge that conservatives would win. liberal voters stayed home convinced of their own defeat. when you look at the polls compared to the actual ballot count, the election provides the largest sample size a pollster could ask for and it was accurate (congrats nik!!!!). i think if you want to draw people out to the polls, polling has to be limited. either that or enforce laws similar to that in australia.
as far as losing the majority, quebec is a province that should be very thankful that it contains a third of the seats in parliament. conservatives simply cannot win such a socialist province and still be able to keep its base out west (see brian mulroney and the rise of reform). i for one do not like the pandering that goes on for that province. give them 50 less seats and see which party gives a damn for them.

[updated Tue Nov 04 18:11:56 EST 2008]

I think Harper is a very good leader - capable, steady and focused, with a plan for where he wants to take the country. He's not flashy. He's not a "rock star". He just gets the job done.

The "scary" moniker of Chretien, Martin and Dion has at last been proven completely false. The only "scary" thing in this election was watching the man who fancied himself as PM, Stephane Dion, self-destruct in one of the poorest run, self-dillusional campaigns I've seen in my lifetime. The Liberals clearly have no plan, no vision and no leaders (plural) that I can discern. They are bereft of any sense of identity or brand. When I hear the word "Liberal" today, I see a cynical, arrogant, entitled politician seeking only power for power's sake, with his finger in the wind to see which way the polls are blowing to make his promise-of-the-day. They will spin like a weather vane if it will get them votes.

Harper is a good leader, and I believe, given another term in office with the possibility of a future majority freeing him from the necessity of politiking, he could become a truly great prime minister. I think in these times of uncertainty, people sensed this, and voted for the steady, capable hand on the wheel, rather than a mad experiment with an unproven tax grab from a testy professor who proved unable to communicate in the language of 76% of the population.

[updated Tue Nov 04 18:41:18 EST 2008]

Great job Nik!!! I never miss you and trust your analysis and polling more than anyone else.

[updated Tue Nov 04 20:22:21 EST 2008]

Harper's decision to freeze funding to Provinces is about the worst thing you can do given a US economic contraction. Provinces host two of the most employment intensive sectors: education and health. Planned corporate tax cuts help oil and banks. Neither are employment intensive. Oil earns 36% of all profits but employs a much smaller percentage of Canadians, maybe 3.6%. Oil is 1/4 as employment intensive as are wind turbines. Banks make money by keeping investors dumb, just like Canada's media.

This is analogous to funding increases for First Nations being capped at 2% annually. Not good given young demographics if you want a low crime rate and high education rate here. Flaherty has corporate tax rates set to lower precisely when health care costs will rise sharply as boomers start to require expensive end-of-life care, all the while exacerbating AGW for boomer children and all subsequent generations. Canada is no longer a post-modern country. No longer a positive influence on our species.

[updated Tue Nov 04 20:59:54 EST 2008]

Nik, yours is a sensible, reasonable analysis of the election results. Early in the campaign when the Conservative support was nearing 40% I said that Harper was getting close to a Majority. Later on when the gap became much narrower I was beginning to hope that maybe Harper was headed for a defeat. Then the last weekend it shifted back in Harpers favour again.

Fear produces caution and fear of an economic downturn, especially in Ontario, caused many voters to decide not to rock the boat. I disagree with "prudent economist" He may be prudent but he is a poor economist. He still believes in discredited concepts like trickle down economics, like cutting taxes stimulates the economy and other outdated theories.
In fact only two days after Bush said he was concerned about inflation, Harper said the same. Whereas anyone who knows anything about economics would be fearing deflation now, not inflation.
He should read Tobin, Spence, Stiglitz Krugman or Sachs. They are all Nobel prize winners. Maybe Sachs didn't but he should have . He's probably the best of them.
Also Harper didn't seem to realize the seriousness of the economic situation until the last minute. He should have known over a year ago. several leading US economists were prediting this. Roubini spelled it out in detail.
But I guess Harper was able to convince voters, so that's all that required.

"Second, his closing message that Canadians were likely to face another minority government minimized strategic voting." Yes, true. They figure that a minority can't go too far astray.

The fact that nearly 80% of eligible voters didn't wish to vote for him must have dampened his spirit somewhat. Even among those who did vote nearly twice as many voted against him. That's not a confidence booster. But he got more than anyone else, so that's what it's all about. It's Canadians want.
I don't mind being a minority, I usually am, in a majority. But I don't feel happy when my country is run by a minority, which is the situation we have now. I wish Canadians would demand a more democratic way of selecting our ruling class.

P. S. One positive I took from the election was this. The people of Toronto and Newfoundland are more politically intelligent than other Canadians. :-)

[updated Wed Nov 05 07:40:51 EST 2008]

After watching ABC coverage of the US election, I was impressed they had polls by state, by county, by region of each city. They had exit polls too. They had dynamic maps to display the data. I wish we Canadians had the money for that degree of pulse measuring.

On the other hand, I waited no time at all to vote, where Americans could wait up to 8 hours.

[updated Wed Nov 05 07:51:37 EST 2008]

I think the main reason the Conservatives won is they lied repeatedly and consistently to confuse the public about the platforms of the NDP and Liberals. The media conspired with them by remaining silent, never once even raising an eyebrow. If were on a jury, I would aquit Mr. Dion if he went postal on them. Conservative mendacity was the worst I have seen in Canadian politics in my 60 years.

[updated Wed Nov 05 07:58:08 EST 2008]

The main reason the Conservatives won, is because they know how to do things right, the Liberals can never be trusted, they will always find away to fill the pockets of their families and relatives. Just look at the Civil Service!

[updated Wed Nov 05 17:44:13 EST 2008]

The Question of the Day? Why are the Liberals looking for a Leader?

[updated Wed Nov 05 17:45:23 EST 2008]

I'm thinking of forming a Anti China Party in Canada, the time is right and only those born in Canada can be members! What do you think Bloggers and is it time to have internet voting, I was a DRO in the last 3 Federal Elections and it is time for the Paper Ballots to go, we need some type of touch vote system or what they use in the Municipal Elections here in BC, In my riding the party scrutoneers came to blows over ballot count with the DRO, I only heard the noise. Elections Canada has to get up to date!

[updated Wed Nov 05 18:24:57 EST 2008]

The main problem for the Liberals! Is the people that attend Liberal Convention and Who Vote for the Leader. Forget about Delegates, Vote over the Internet by Grass Roots people not these party hacks. Who may not be any brighter than the door knob on your door!

[updated Thu Nov 06 01:11:17 EST 2008]

Policy Number One For Harper: No Trade With China Period, If they do not stop NO Party will get a majority in this country again. Increase import taxes immediately!

Taiwan must remain Independent and Have membership in the UN and World Trade,(My girl friend was from Taiwan this is how they feel! Who cares about the Chinese in China not me I have seen their mess first hand) China must be dropped they have not earned the right to be there, it is g.d. Russians fault.

[updated Thu Nov 06 11:57:05 EST 2008]

Did you see all the whipped puppies (Liberals) coming into a Caucas Meeting on Parliament Hill it was a site to behold! I just loved it! They Deserve it!

[updated Thu Nov 06 13:54:14 EST 2008]

Is there a scientific way to prove it was a Liberal loss and not really a CPC win? What kind of poll question could we ask to find out if voters voted against the Green Shift and Dion or did they really vote for the lesser of two evils as I did? I only wish I had the money to hire a polling company like Nanos to prove it one way or the other. The right seems to believe we are swinging to the right when in reality we simply chose to vote against the perceived danger of a tax grab. History shows most elections are lost by the incumbent party because voters are P.Oed. about something. Martin lost because of adscam. Mulroney went down in flames because of the GST. Turner lost because of patronage appointments.Harper will lose when we get angry at him. The left leaning electorate makes a mistake every few years and elects the right wing party but it will and always has come back to the party that is in the middle or at least just left of center.

[updated Thu Nov 06 15:56:48 EST 2008]

Liberals lose $250,000 in deposits as 36 Liberal candidates fail to garner at least 10% of the vote.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/11/06/liberal-caucus.html

It's a drop in the bucket compared to their other revenue problems, but it does add insult to injury.

[updated Thu Nov 06 20:10:27 EST 2008]

PM moves fast to build bridges with Obama
Relationship with president-elect seen as giving Harper a more centrist image

This will drive the screaming left absolutely crazy as they try to find way to demonize Harper/Obama on a shared environmental plan.

They won't be able to demonize and attack Americans openly as they have been doing for the last few years.

OBAMA is not a left leaning Liberal, in fact his positions are clearly inline with Harper on several key areas. This should be fun watching Bloc,Dion, Layton try to refer to Harper as the Obama sidekick.

[updated Fri Nov 07 08:34:55 EST 2008]

Ontario is going to be the big winner in the next 24 months by the Harper gov't as Quebec failed to convert more seats or popular support. "Aways pick the low lying fruit."
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....The clear directive from the Conservative hierarchy is for all Quebec supporters to put their federal allegiances first and foremost. Conservative officials said that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's new Quebec lieutenant, Public Works Minister Christian Paradis, is an example of someone whose top priorities are in Ottawa.

"Both sides with a certain affiliation provincially have to get over it," a Tory official said.

"It's a matter of when the leader [Mr. Harper] is not in the province, how do we make sure that we dominate the news cycle or respond quickly ... ," a Tory official said.

Conservative organizers are being urged to focus their energies on governing, and to limit their contribution to the current Quebec campaign.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081107.wharper07/BNStory/National/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
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The CPC will work with increasing popular vote and seats in Ontario.
Where is the next Liberal Leader suspected to come from?
The CPC will not give a free hand to the newly annointed Liberal leader to rebuild the base in Ontario.
Voters will see the CPC focus on Ontario.

The CPC have put the strongest Cabinet Ministers to address the economic challenges we will encounter with the global recession.

[updated Fri Nov 07 08:51:44 EST 2008]

Canada adds 9,500 jobs, defies expectations

In Canada, Statistics Canada reported that an increase in full-time work was mostly offset by a decline in part-time work.

“The labour market surprises once again,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Charmaine Buskas, noting that the addition of 47,500 full-time jobs “bodes well for income growth.”

On the goods-producing side of the economy, however, there was broad-based weakness, Ms. Buskas noted.

The number of jobs in Alberta increased by 15,000, pushing the province's employment rate to a record high of 72.5 per cent. However, British Columbia lost 8,300 jobs in October and saw its unemployment rate increase to 5.3 per cent. There was little change in the employment levels in other provinces.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081107.wjobs1107/BNStory/Business/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
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Looks like the opposition will continue to be shooting blanks when the house resumes.
Housing market bubble is not happening in Canada. Only a few cities based on greedy speculators are getting into trouble.
Our banks are holding up fine.
Anti-american bashing is over and calling Harper a Bush side kick.

What will the speechwriters for the opposition do now?

[updated Fri Nov 07 09:10:22 EST 2008]