Looking at the tracking over the weekend shows an uptick for the individual daily performance index for Stephen Harper on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Likewise, he has recovered some lost ground on the best Prime Minister measure. The research suggests a comparatively better election close for Harper, compared to Dion and Layton.
The Sunday only numbers show a significant jump in support for the Conservates - up to 37%. If this holds then the margin of victory will be higher than anticipated.
Looking at the big picture there are a number of narratives in this campaign.
First, the Conservatives were poised to win a majority mid campaign until the culture and crime issues revitalized BQ support. Harper’s stronger closing weekend and improvement in support in battleground Ontario has helped increase his margin over the Liberals and has secured a second mandate for the Conservatives. A review of the night-to-night individual results shows a good Thanksgiving Sunday for the Harper Conservatives.
Second, it is quite likely that the Liberals under Stephane Dion will post among the worst showings in Liberal Party history. The current low water mark is the 1984 Turner loss (28%) and the research points to a potential final Liberal outcome in that range. Of note, on the best Prime Minister measure, for only two days in the complete election did Stephane Dion register higher than Jack Layton. Although the Liberals did narrow that gap last week, the weekend performances of the leaders tipped the advantage back to the Conservatives.
Third, Jack Layton and the NDP, according to the research, had consistent levels of performance and ballot tracking and there will be an expected increase in their aggregate national support.
Fourth, Gilles Duceppe has averted a BQ meltdown by playing the culture card.
Fifth, Elizabeth May will likely preside over the best showing for the Green Party of Canada in terms of the aggregate number of Green votes. Getting into the leaders’ debate represented a breakthrough for the party but it is unknown what type of negative impact she had on Green Party support by telling Green voters to cast their ballot for the Liberals.
As you know, at Nanos Research, we place a very high premium on transparency. Hence for those of you interested in reading entrails please take note that we have posted on our website:
- our regular tracking report;
- the individual daily results for the last three nights of the ballot tracking so you can see the night- to-night shift on the weekend;
- detailed sub-regional numbers for ballot support; and,
- the results of our online “group wisdom” election projection trial.
You will notice that for our last day of tracking our final projection details the national ballot to one-tenth of one percentage point. Please note that our closing national sample is based on 1,500 instead of 1,200 randomly selected voters.
For those interested, today we have posted a 12 minute video on the Nanos website with a behind the scenes look at our nightly tracking, my views on research in general and polling during an election campaign.
Also, thank you for your interest in the CPAC-Nanos tracking during this election. Our objectives were to capture the trends, explain the campaign narratives and to present our findings straight-up. From my perspective, it was a success on all fronts
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight night at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,502 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,502 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research interviewed 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,502 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 11, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,269, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34.2%
- Liberal Party 26.7%
- NDP 21.4%
- BQ 9.5%
- Green Party 8.2%
- *Undecided 16%
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,502 MoE ± 2.5%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 16% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 94 (+7)
- Jack Layton 52 (-4)
- Stephane Dion 46 (-11)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (NC)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Aside from the state of the world economy, and the effect that it will have on C... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 13 Oct 14:54
Again more positive news for the Conservatives. The upswing continues into elect... more
Darryl (Ontario) 13 Oct 14:08
Awesome-hope just maybe enough 3 way battles might... just might.. squeeze out a... more
Peggy (New Brunswick) 13 Oct 14:27
I second that. Also, people have to vote for the party that matches their own... more
Craig (Alberta) 13 Oct 16:08
That is a very good question, and it will depend on one factor to a large degree... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 13 Oct 16:29
What you have just done is make a very sound argument for de-centralization of t... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 13 Oct 17:40
Comments
Darryl
Again more positive news for the Conservatives. The upswing continues into election day.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:08:54 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:08
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Twin
Ouch.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:19:03 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:19
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peggy
Awesome-hope just maybe enough 3 way battles might... just might.. squeeze out a majority????
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:27:32 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:27
37 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
Aside from the state of the world economy, and the effect that it will have on Canada, (which seems to have become the ballot question) what is the one issue that would interest any of you that has not been addressed by any of the parties in this election campaign.
For me, it is about the stance that we would take on the international arena relative to climate change. Even a massive reduction in our carbon footprint has no material impact on the world stage. Expanding industrial economies in China and India and an expanding middle class in those countries will put 10's millions of cars on their roads compared to the 20 million or so now on the roads in Canada.
None of the parties has really addressed this, aside from motherhood statements like "we will be and example for the rest of the world to follow", "we will not export raw bitumen to countries with less stringent emissions goals than ours", etc.
Any comments?
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:54:20 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:54
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
christine
There will be no majority with these numbers. In fact, the results are likely to be very similar to 2006.
Plugging in the latest Nanos numbers into the election predictor on the Hill and Knowlton web site gives the following results (http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/):
CONS: 126
LIBS: 86
BLOC: 50
NDP: 46
GRN: 0
IND: 2
Other election prediction sites give similar results. Here is the current prediction from Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project (http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php):
CONS: 125
LIBS: 94
BLOC: 51
NDP: 36
GRN: 0
IND: 2
The current prediction from Democratic Space (http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/):
CONS: 128
LIBS: 92
BLOC: 52
NDP: 34
GRN: 0
IND: 2
And, finally, the current prediction from Trendlines Research (http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm):
CONS: 131
LIBS: 105
BLOC: 42
NDP: 28
GRN: 0
IND: 2
The main reason why the Conservatives will not win a majority (or even a strong minority) is because they are not leading in either of the two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec. According to the Nanos regional breakdown of today's poll (http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-13-2008E.pdf) the Conservatives currently have 19 per cent support in Quebec, behind the Liberals at 22 and way behind the Bloc at 40. As for Ontario, the Liberals currently lead at 35 per cent vs 33 for the Conservatives and 26 per cent for the NDP. As for Atlantic Canada, Conservatives trail there as well: 25 per cent support vs 41 for the Liberals and 24 for the NDP. The only area of the country where the Conservatives currently are leading is the west. But since they already have most of those seats already, leading in the west doesn't do them much good.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:17:27 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:17
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Time for our predictions. Could we restrict this thread to just what you think each party will get in terms of percentage of popular vote. We can ridicule other peoples opinions on a different thread.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:28:13 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:28
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Taylor Cutforth
I wonder how many are ignorantly basing their votes on what is going on down south rather then on which candidate best represents their riding and are the best fit for the job.
In most cases that happens to be a Conservative, much to the dislike of some who prefer someone closer to their own ideological perspectives.
But they should learn to get over themselves and vote for in the best interests of all people and not just themselves.
"Strategic voting" won't yield positive results... and at the same time subverts our democracy in ways that go against its intended purpose(s).
Thus continues the hypocrisy from some in the "Left" of this country.
Liberals on the other hand are not really "Left" but aim to serve their own self interests...
Jobs for friends and so forth... Anyone who has been paying attention to CPAC over the years knows how much the Liberals no longer deserve to be a party let alone be in opposition.
What-A-Mess.
Hopefully voters will come to understand this in time before they vote and don't allow themselves to be drawn in by the hardline partisan rhetoric which exists predominately amongst the current opposition... and vote in some new groups more suitable and reflective of our country's diversity.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:46:47 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:46
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Has anyone noticed that Nik called more people per night for the last three nights and the number of undecided has increased. They will be the deciding factor if they turn out in large numbers. All of you on the right made up your minds who to vote for before this polling started and I believe the public did the same thing . The undecided could not make up their minds if they should vote NDP or Green . With all the polls of decided voters showing Harper ahead they will decide when they walk into the polling booth that they need to stop Harper so they will mark their X for the only party who can do that. I believe the Liberals will gain the most from the undecided because so many don' t trust Harper and they will try to stop him from getting a majority. Make your predictions on the thread above .
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:07:53 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:07
12 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
The time has come to decide our future. Good luck to all Canadians - we should get the government we elect.
Another minority.
I think the next election will achieve a majority - so we should enjoy this while it lasts.
I would like guesses on this: If there is another minority how many months will it last?
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:16:37 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:16
82 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
If the result is a minority I predict it will last 35 months.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:22:19 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:22
Depends how long for the knives to land on Dion. 6-12 month. Harper will be moving fast using this time to push his agenda through. Whiplash for those liberals who will be running away from the seats during voting.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:41:29 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:41
After the Liberal convention at Denny's: Rae will have six months as the leader. He will need Rae to be absent during voting under his leadership as well.
24 months tops. Holidays, HOC breaks etc and rebuilding the CPC Quebec party.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:48:10 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:48
Craig
-->Denny's. :D
Funniest comment I've read in a while.
I suspect Brison will become interim leader after Dion is turfed, setting up a McKenna/Rae showdown.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:58:46 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:58
They wont let anyone vying for the leadership become interim leader. Need someone who can debate in both languages and not want the job. With such a deep bench that should not be a problem. Maybe larryl, gohab1 can take over he learned the scripts very well.
Denny's has private birthday party rooms right? They need to bring back Sheila Copps she was great. She could even beat up Harper in a real fight.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:10:59 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:10
Taylor Cutforth
If the fight involved sling shots and fish-sticks... then maybe.
But politics and governance?
Harper would win in a land slide. Hands down.
The "Liberals" should stop dreaming and learn to step aside when someone more appropriate has clearly earned the right to lead our country.
Not to sound overly patriotic... but its true.
People got to get over their initial beliefs about Harper and the Conservatives and realize the fact that they're are the best of all the options democratically available at this time.
What matters is wether people realize this in time frame that ups set things forward rather then set things back and prove to the wrong people that we are unable to govern ourselves through our own democracy.
While at the same time make our populace look like fools to the rest of the globe for failing to see/recognize a good political party/government when we see one.
Hurray for the democracy that only works when people stay informed.
Hopefully we'll at least get some better results this time than last.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:28:25 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:28
For the record I love fishsticks. Crabcakes, I must have been a seal in a previous life. Cant get enough seafood!
Maybe like Canadian Idol we can have a reality show Liberal Idol.
Oh no Belinda Stronach might come back. She has daddy's money the others are all broke now.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:43:57 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:43
Craig
I doubt Brison would run for the leadership again. He got very little support the last time and he's got his new family.
[updated Mon Oct 13 22:40:22 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 22:40
Lex Llewdor
The funny thing is, the best leader they've had since Chrétien was Bill Graham.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:26:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:26
While interviewing Bob Rae tonight; Mike Duffy accidently called Mr. Rae a conservative. Bob Rae remarked, and I quote " I'm not a conservative yet". There was a few second of speechless delay by Mike and Bob. Mike then bit his tounge and continued with the interview without mentioning Bob's remark.
It was pretty funny, I expect Duffy; with respect, gave Bob break.
[updated Mon Oct 13 22:04:12 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 22:04
He knows the outcome and the election. It just slipped out. I bet he is very happy that Harper will be the PM during this crisis.
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:04:15 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:04
suedo
I think there may be severe repercussions for Harper if there is even a hint of a recession. He claimed the only way to stop one was to elect him.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:56:48 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:56
Rofl, I hear Harper can also part the Atlantic Ocean.
We are not immune. Sound familiar?
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:11:55 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:11
suedo
That's what he said in an interview yesterday...
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:32:08 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:32
Enjoy your turkey and dont forget to vote for a Carbon Tax tomorrow.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:36:31 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:36
suedo
I won't forget to vote. I'll save the turkey eating for tomorrow. That is to say my posts may change.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:40:42 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:40
Lex Llewdor
There is no way he claimed he could stop a recession.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:27:37 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:27
suedo
Yes he did.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:49:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:49
Lex Llewdor
I'll need to see that text before I'll believe that.
I'll believe his remarks were intended to convey that belief, but that's a different thing entirely.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:53:05 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:53
suedo
It was CTV Newsnet interview with Craig Oliver - this past weekend.
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:32:45 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:32
Lex Llewdor
I'll try to track it down. I'm convinced you misinterpreted him.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:09:20 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:09
suedo
No I'm sure I didn't - it was rather startling...
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:21:22 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:21
suedo
That might be interesting.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:00:36 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:00
larryl
Suedo. That depends completely on who wins. The CPC knows that the other parties will all need time to regroup and will all be broke. They will force the opposition to defeat them as early as February when they bring out their next budget. If Dion should happen to squeak out a minority he will work with the other parties for the full 4 year term.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:26:28 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:26
suedo
I agree with you on the early defeat of the minority.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:59:48 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:59
larryl
Suedo. Think possitive. Dion will be P.M for a while . Layton will hang on as leader for as long as possible and Duceppe will do the same. The Conservatives have always devoured their leaders who lose so they will be forced to work in the minority until they can find someone to replace Harper which many P.C members would not mind at all.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:16:19 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:16
Darryl
"Dion will be P.M. for a while"
Is this going to happen in some parallel universe?
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:19:10 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:19
Craig
No, it's going on in "Fantasyland". :)
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:37:52 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:37
Yes didn't you see that episode.
In that reality the Liberals actually deliver on the promises they make.
And Angelina Jolie wants you!
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:49:30 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:49
suedo
We all need a Duceppe for our own provincial interests. He sits in the HOC does not ever have to answer to failed policy and says "I want this" "I want that"..
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:33:28 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:33
Its called a premier, hence Danny, Charest, Duceppe (in training), McGuinty.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:50:54 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:50
suedo
No definitely not a Premier in waiting - the Bloc - besides we have 7 seats -
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:22:38 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:22
Taylor Cutforth
Not unless the opposition parties smarten up between now and then and finally begin to properly work with the governing party in a more productive fashion... which is highly unlikely given their contradicting/conflicted and ideological party "principles" they so often like to tote... needlessly.
The NDP where the "least" guilty of this but guilty all the same.
Funny how they're so willing to want tea time/"negotiate" with the Taliban but are unwilling to work peacefully with the Conservatives even in a parliamentary setting.
As it goes against their parties "principles".
The NDP are all talk... but when it comes to principles they couldn't be more backwards.
[updated Tue Oct 14 01:08:10 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 01:08
Foxer
That is a very good question, and it will depend on one factor to a large degree - will it take two or three parties to bring the gov't down?
Depending on how the vote goes, we may see a situation where the bloc and the NDP could bring the CPC down on their own, without help from the libs. That was not the case in the past, and by abstaining the libs could guarantee the gov't didn't come down without actually supporting the gov't.
In such a case the gov't would likely not last long. Maybe a year.
If however it takes the libs to bring down the gov't as well as the other opposition, i think we're looking at at least 18 -24 months before the next election. There will be 'leadership issues' for the libs to deal with - they have absolutely NO money at all. They will have no 'impending reason' to go back to the polls - the green tax will be dead, there is no chance the party will let dion run on THAT again. They're weak on the economy, so that won't help them. And if they haven't learned yet that every time they mention 'gun control', cpc donations shoot thru the roof, then they're idiots. That's a null issue.
The ndp and bloc won't be afraid of the polls as much, but the libs are going to avoid it like the plague for at least a couple of years, same as they did the last time and with more reason.
The only possible exception would be this - A new liberal leader, especially bob rae, MAY choose to go to the polls almost immediately after being elected as leader for the simple reason that leaders tend to get a 'bump' in popularity when elected. If he runs his leadership campaign in such a way that it's actually election campaigning as well, then he 'double dips' on his allowable spending so to speak and at that point he might well launch straight into a general election hoping his momentum will sweep him along.
But it's going to be a money issue for them. That would probably be the smart play - do it before the economy recovers and the CPC gets the credit for that. But they just may not be able to afford it.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:29:32 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:29
Darryl
Yes this will be a very big factor. My prediction of 35 months is based on the liberals being needed to vote to take down the government. If all 3 parties are needed then the liberals won't be interested in another election any time soon. Of course the more they prop up the government the worse they look and the more ammo the NDP will have for the next election.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:34:29 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:34
HC in AB
I don't think that there is much question that it will take all 3 opposition parties. In a best case scenario for the Bloc and NDP they would have about 100 (60 Bloc/40 NDP) seats between them against a worst case scenario of about 130 seats for the CPC. If the NDP and Bloc do that well and the CPC that low, it would leave about 75 seats for the LPC. If the LPC does better and the CPC is at 130 they would have to be at 125 and the NDP at 30 to bring down the government. I don't see a scenario where the NDP an LPC can elect 155 between them.
Depending and the timing of the economy recovering, I could see the CPC forcing an election on a "non-supportable confidence vote by all 3 parties in about 2 years.
Strictly from a strategic point view, the CPC will want the LPC to be as weak as possible financially and from a leadership point of view at the time they force the next election. I would guess 24 to 30 months.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:48:14 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:48
suedo
I have a strange feeling in this one. I say it will fall on the first budget.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:54:58 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:54
HC in AB
I can't see the LPC going into an election that soon, they would still have Dion as leader and be so far in debt that they would be campaigning out of a bunch of recycled buses. But then I thought I was wrong once, but I made a mistake.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:08:18 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:08
suedo
Depends on Harper's performance and the economic situation.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:31:24 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:31
Foxer
Still need money to fight a campaign, and that's something the libs are going to be short of for a while.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:30:21 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:30
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
foxer, still spinning the big lie I see...........where are the 150 seats you predicted for the Cons.
[updated Mon Oct 13 20:58:25 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 20:58
Darryl
How is this a lie? I'm confused.
[updated Mon Oct 13 21:10:57 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 21:10
Foxer
ROFL Gohabs :) weren't you saying 80 seats the other day?
And i said 144 - repeatedly. And i'm thinking I'm not going to be off by much. But - as most liberals do i see you prefer to lie than tell the truth.
As to the liberal finances - that's based on their own financial reports. So - i assume you mean that the liberal books can't be trusted because they've lied so much in the past? Perhaps. But still - money is sure looking hard to come by for the libs, it's not like the old days where they can just sell a few lucrative contracts to someone for money.
[updated Mon Oct 13 21:27:11 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 21:27
Lex Llewdor
The Liberals are millions of dollars in debt (this is a matter of public record). If there's an election soon, it will be because the Bloc and NDP want one - not the Liberals. The Liberals will need significant time to raise money and choose a new leader.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:31:03 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:31
HC in AB
According to the 2007 reports by the parties to Elections Canda, at the end of 2007 the Libs were carrying a $2,000,0000 bank loan. They had raised just under $5,000,000 in donations that year.
All other mainline parties were debt free, The CPC raised about $17,000,000 from about 107,000 doners that year.
The Liberals have had to borrow a sustantial amout of money to run this campaign, I had heard $8,000,000 but I do not have a source for that. If it is correct they will come out of this election about $10,000,000 in debt and be facing a leadership race. Each leadership contestant in a Liberal leadership race seems to need about $1,500,000 to run a leadership campaign (see the reports from Dion, Rea, Iggy etc on the Elections Canada website), so a well-contested leadership race will suck up 4 or 5 million in potential donations to the Liberal Party (although individual and corporate donations to a leadership candidate are not capped). If you wish to see who financed the leadership canditates all of that information is available in the leadership candidates reports to Elections Canada.. there is some interesting information there.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:45:09 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:45
suedo
Does not take much time to raise money if the corps come on board.
Besides every vote is worth cash..
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:50:09 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:50
HC in AB
The Libs have been getting the public cash based on the votes in the last election and they are still massively in debt. Last time they got about 4,500,000 votes. All indications are that that will be less this time unless voter turnout is way up. So even the public cash donation will be down for them.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:54:11 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:54
suedo
True but it helps the debt..or should
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:33:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:33
HC in AB
It seems to be dissapearing into operating expenses, leadership conventions etc.
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:38:10 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:38
Lex Llewdor
Corporate donations to political parties are illegal in Canada. Chrétien passed that law.
Try to keep up.
[updated Tue Oct 14 13:00:34 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 13:00
HC in AB
Lex, you are likely a little better informed than I on this. How about to leadership candidates. From the returns filed after the last LPC leadership race, it would appear not. Many of the donations reported were the tens of thousand of dollars range. I know about the restrictions directly to the parties.
[updated Tue Oct 14 13:03:59 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 13:03
HC in AB
OK, I double checked, the big numbers were not donations, but loans/loan garrantees, from individuals... not corporatins involved. All donations were from individuals, it appears that the maximum donation to a leadership candidate from an individual is $5,400. Do I have it right? I didn't cross reference the lists, but is it possible for one individual to donate the maximum $5,400 to more than one candidate?
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:06:35 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:06
suedo
True - however - the donations may come from CEO etc...I call them corp donations.
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:34:03 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:34
HC in AB
They are still restricted to $1,000 per year per individual, I believe, outside of leadership contestants donations. So the CEO can only donate a max of $1,000 per year
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:39:51 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:39
suedo
Yes - that sounds accurate - 100 of them from let's say Bombardier is 100,000.
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:51:24 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:51
Lex Llewdor
$100,000. Great.
The Liberals will need to average about $10 million per year over the next 4 to pull themselves out of their hole and compete on an even playing field with the Conservatives.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:15:05 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:15
suedo
That was one company - plus the base is returning
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:21:58 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:21
Lex Llewdor
The Liberals never had a funding base among individuals. That's the point.
Check the Elections Canada records from the 1990s.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:24:15 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:24
suedo
The provincial bodies will take care of that..but maybe you are right...maybe the Libs will never be able to campaign again. C'mon
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:29:14 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:29
Lex Llewdor
How many of the provincial parties are formally affiliated with the federal party?
And are transfers between the two even legal? I know it's illegal in Alberta for a provincial party to accept money from a federal party.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:59:58 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:59
suedo
No, what I meant was using local contacts to get federal contributions.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:22:26 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:22
Lex Llewdor
And I'm not saying they'll never be able to campaign again. I'm saying they have serious financial problems and no clear path to fixing them.
They're not simply going to bounce back; they have huge debts and limited revenue. Plus, credit just became a bit hard to find - or hadn't you heard?
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:01:42 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:01
suedo
If that were the case - they would be wiped out tonight.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:23:01 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:23
Lex Llewdor
And another thing.
Harper's not a strong Prime Minister, and he's actually a pretty poor politician. The Liberals of old would have toppled his government in the first year, but these Liberals didn't because they couldn't afford it. Why do you think they faield to vote on 43 government bills? They didn't want to support them, but defeating them would have forced an election, and the Liberals couldn't afford an election.
The finances of federal parties are a matter of public record. It's not like I'm just making this up.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:03:39 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:03
suedo
Actually one strong leader - in some party
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:23:37 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:23
HC in AB
The big problem that the Liberals will have is getting their base used to writing the cheques a $100 per pop or whatever. The CPC base is used to this as that is how the Reform/Alliance operated before the advent of government funding. They are used to getting a letter suggesting that the party needs some cash, and they respond.
The Liberal base would, in their current mindset, look at such a letter and say to themselves "never had to before, why now?" and file it in 13.
The other big issue is that the LPC is likely to be going thru a leadership convention, the total expenditure by all candidates in their last leadership race was close to $9 million, and that does not include the incremental costs to party operations for convention facilities, facilitating the leadership race overall etc. etc. which will likely be another couple of million. Add that to fact that their total polling numbers are likely to be down by 6 or 7 hundred thousand votes. That will decrease their public funding by $ 1 to 1.2 million per year. The Liberal Party has been raising just under $1 million per quarter from donations as compared to over $4 million for the CPC. The NDP donations are about the same as the the Liberals.
I have now idea how large a central office the Liberal Party runs, but I would guess in the order of 50 to 100 employees. You can't do that for less than $5 million per year by the time you pay salaries, benefits, payroll taxes, insurance, provide office equipment and tech systems, provide office space etc. etc. They are in big trouble financially, I suspect that they will come out of this election with about $10 million in debt.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:41:31 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:41
Lex Llewdor
50-100 seems big. When I worked for the Reform Party (1998-2000) our head office was about 20 people.
[updated Tue Oct 14 18:18:45 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 18:18
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Chretien passed a law limiting Corp. donations to $5000 and Harper in a true spirit of democracy saw fit to cut that to $1000 because it didn't affect the Cons. They simply get their corporate sponsors to dole out the cash as bonuses to employees who are ,wink wink, expected to donate.
[updated Tue Oct 14 17:08:41 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 17:08
HC in AB
Facts, Please. If this is the case, kind of like your Mr. Volpe. That one is documented, as we know.
[updated Tue Oct 14 17:11:25 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 17:11
wyly
last thing the cons will want is to call an election during a recession that's the reason this one was called....I doubt either the opposition or the government will trigger an election in the near future the electorate may very well punish anyone who they think has done so without good reason....IMO we go to the polls no sooner than next fall or spring 2010, more likely fall 2010...and I think everyone makes to much of liberal finances and leadership issues, if the recession does damage the libs will have no fear of brining down the government...
[updated Wed Oct 15 19:30:28 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 19:30
Craig
Why do you enjoy minorities so much?
The concensus on the street is that people view parliament very poorly these days. That's because all they see during question period is a constant back and forth of rhetoric between parties.
Notwithstanding that it has always been that way, recalling the Pearson/Diefenbaker spats, I do think that rhetoric is hightened ad nauseum in a minority situation.
Policies get watered down, bills get blocked simply due to the party that created them, the constant threat of an election - that is what to expect during a minority.
With a majority government Canadians get a form of stability and a basis on which to judge the party in power. The left continues to throw out words like "agenda, Bush, neo-con etc." and say "what if, what if". But that's just talk without evidence. We have seen what the Liberals have done with a majority, now is the time to see what the Conservatives will do.
If they perform poorly (and I highly doubt that), throw them out in 2012; but if they perform above and beyond expectations, we will all see that the doom and gloom of 2004-2008 was unwarranted.
Prediction - 30 months if a minority is elected.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:56:27 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:56
suedo
Only because I am not happy with the leadership choices.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:58:29 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:58
Craig
Who would you rather see as leader?
Myself:
Conservatives - Harper, but as a second choice Jim Prentice.
Liberals - Ignatiff
NDP - Martin
Green - Harris
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:04:17 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:04
suedo
Good Question...
for the Conservatives a PC
for the Liberals I like the mannerisms of both Ignatief and Dryden (somehow both of their qualities in one person) maybe a woman
for the NDP maybe Peter Stoffer
the Greens a strong personality from Quebec (I think they would get farther)
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:30:38 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:30
Craig
Its been four years.
There is no definite separation of PCs and Canadian Alliance members anymore.
I was an original member of the CA and I consider myself a Conservative. As the party grew so did its members and policies.
By PC, do you mean a former PC? There were only 12 members of the original PC caucus that joined the CA.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:40:21 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:40
suedo
No not necessarily the original crew - but one who might be associated with the PC's on provincial levels.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:21:30 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:21
Craig
Yet it is the provincial PCs that get the most attacks against these days.
John Baird
Jim Flahety
James Moore
Michael Fortier
were are original PC advisors in their provinces.
[updated Mon Oct 13 22:42:53 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 22:42
Must be fluent in both languages.
Harper
Sheila Copps (she has bigger ones the Dion and the entire bench!)
Peggy Nash
Dave Barnes
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:12:40 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:12
Darryl
Plus Sheila likes to drink tequila.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:21:36 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:21
Harper could not bully Sheila or Peggy.
I actually think Harper would get his butt kicked. rofl
Thank goodness we are not voting on empathy card.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:28:50 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:28
Lex Llewdor
Enjoy what? Minority governments serve only to increase the size of government bureaucracies. No one benefits from that.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:25:24 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:25
suedo
Enjoy waiting for a real leader to emerge.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:48:29 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:48
Don Macfarlane
Nik: Thanks for doing such a great job keeping the rest of us informed throughout the campaign; it is greatly appreciated!
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:59:09 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:59
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spudser2008
With Elizabeth not having to challenge the Grits for votes in Nova Scotia, the Green popular vote is of no concern. Sorry Elizabeth, we still have fist past the post. It seems that the coziness between May and Dion is biting both of them. I am surprised at Layton's numbers considering he wants to shut down Fort Mac & Fort MacKay and does not want all Canadian small businesses to realize reduced income tax. All he talks about is big oil an dbanks - there are small businesses who also would benefit from reduced federal taxes - tell it like it is Jack. Jack talks about lost manufacturing jobs - what about the 110,000 jobs created last month - many are manufacturing jobs.
On CPAC today, Harper is speaking like he should have spoken over the past two weeks. With speeches like those today in Atlantic Canada, he would have climbed up by at least 3-5 points in the polls.
[updated Mon Oct 13 19:49:56 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 19:49
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MAPSONBURT
Is it just me or is the tone a heck of a lot more civilized today? I only read about 3 posts in all of the above that could be considered to be blatently partisan (1 Tory, 1 Lib and 1 NDP supporter by my reckoning). It is SO refreshing. Too bad the election couldn't have been like this.
Thank you folks for toning it down today. Must be the turkey or that we are all just really thankful for the great country we live in.
How ever you decide to vote, do get out there and exercise your democratic right. And may the best candidate in each of your ridings win! Good luck!!!
[updated Mon Oct 13 20:59:13 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 20:59
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
What happens if we have a hung parliament, in other words an effective tie, or one where the maximun seats of any one party don't go over, say, 115 seats.
[updated Mon Oct 13 21:08:17 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 21:08
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Grand Merde ... and the US will likely elect Obama ... well, our voters have the right to be wrong.
We'll see Tuesday.
[updated Mon Oct 13 22:44:03 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 22:44
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Darryl
I see that the US Stock Markets climbed on average 11% today. The Canadian markets were closed for the holiday but they are likely to be affected in a big way tomorrow on election day.
I want to know what our federal government will do about this wild change in the stock market. Will the government intervene right away and bring in some measures to resolve this situation? Surely with such an unprecedented change in the market our government will do something to calm the Canadian public?
[updated Mon Oct 13 23:10:36 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 23:10
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Non-aligned in Toronto
I still find the number of undecided voters unusually large. This could play out a number of ways: Most likely; undecided won't vote. Other possibilities: Many undecideds will vote but will split along approximately the same lines as decided voters. Many undecideds are upset with leading parties and will register a protest vote for Greens, NDP or a small party where available.
I really don't have a clue where the UD vote will go but caution all that there is still a lot of potential volatility out there.
[updated Tue Oct 14 01:29:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 01:29
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OTTAWA, Oct 13 - The final poll on the eve of Tuesday's general election in Canada projected a strengthened Conservative minority government and a weakened official opposition Liberal Party.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081014/wl_canada_nm/canada_us_politics_projection_canada_1
The Ekos poll issued Monday night projected that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives would advance to approximately 136 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.
This would be a net gain of nine seats but would still fall short of the 155 Harper needs for majority, in which he would not have to rely on other parties to get his budgets and legislation through Parliament.
Harper was elected with a minority for the first time in January 2006 and managed, by some calculations, to have the longest minority government in Canadian history.
Under the Ekos projection the Liberals, who had a hard time winning public support for a carbon tax at a time of high energy prices, would lose 11 seats and end up with 84.
The Bloc Quebecois, which advocates independence for the majority French-speaking province of Quebec but has not pushed that in this campaign, would rise five seats to 51.
The leftist New Democratic Party would gain between five and 35 seats, and two seats would be independent.
Harper called the election on September 7 to seek a renewed mandate to govern. He predicted it would produce another minority but said that once re-elected the opposition parties would be reluctant to block his agenda, at least to start with.
Ekos's automated telephone rolling poll covered the three days through Monday. In popular support, it had the Conservatives out front with 34.8 percent compared with 26.4 percent for the Liberals, 19.4 percent for the New Democrats, 9.8 percent for the Bloc and 9.6 percent for the Green Party.
It predicted the Greens would have no seats. The party struck out in the last election too, but one independent legislator joined them last month.
The poll covered 2,358 committee voters and carries a margin of error of 2 points 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by Randall Palmer)
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:15:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:15
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MRM
Last Night, Claude Genest, Deputy Leader of the Greens was on Duffy telling everyone to vote ABL. He says that the Liberals have used them and double crossed them. The former Green, now Liberal candidate from Saanich Island BC, Briony Penn was on with him. He had less than kind words for her. The Greens will be following this up with a national email and phone campaign to their candidates to get the word out to dump the Liberals. The NDP will likely be get the vote benefit from this but the largest benefactor will be the Tories as it will minimize the Liberal strategic vote. Of course not one word in the Liberal biased MSM about it but you can listen to on the CTV website under Duffy Live 13 Oct.
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:22:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:22
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Will the Liberal Venue for election results will it be empty?
"It is quite likely that the Liberals under Stephane Dion will post among the worst showings in Liberal Party history. The current low water mark is the 1984 Turner loss (28%) and the research points to a potential final Liberal outcome in that range." -Nanos
What rivals will be left for a run at the leadership?
Bob Rae, Brian Tobin, McKenna, Belinda Stronach come to mind.
I don't think Iggy can make a serious run if he barely holds onto his riding. A leader should have a gap of +3,000 votes.
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:37:46 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:37
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MRM
After all the sanctimonious crap from Liberals about the Cadman tape the truth is finally starting to come out and now it is the Liberals own two experts who are saying that the Liberals (not Zytaruk) are guilty. An excerpt from an article on today's CTV website:
New report casts doubt on Cadman affair tape
Updated Mon. Oct. 13 2008 8:10 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
A new report has cast doubt on the authenticity of a taped conversation which the Liberals say implicates Conservative Leader Stephen Harper in a bribery scandal involving the late MP Chuck Cadman.
CTV News reported Monday that two audio experts, hired by the Liberal Party of Canada to analyze the tape, found that "the recording cannot be shown to be complete."
The latest, Liberal-funded report states "it can be postulated that the original ... tape recording was digitized, edited digitally and then electronically placed on the evidence tape associated with this dispute."
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:49:45 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:49
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suedo
Good Morning and here we go....
Already voted and NL will be reporting first...
Good Luck to all
[updated Tue Oct 14 09:55:30 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 09:55
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suedo
Please help: Including NIK
Here is the promise:
Much of the tension that has arisen between the federal and provincial governments over the last decade is the result of the fiscal imbalance. Paul Martin's government denies the fiscal imbalance exists despite the fact the provinces are struggling to deliver essential services such as health and education while the federal government accumulates surpluses. I don't think this is fair and I don't think this is right. A conservative government is committed to bringing balance to the fiscal relationship between the federal and provincial governments.
A conservative government would also support changes to the equalization program to ensure provinces and territories have the opportunity to develop their economies and sustain important core social services. We will remove non-renewable resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada.
That was what Harper promised!
This has nothing to do with a promise on the Atlantic Accord - that did not happen.
When the national media refers to a disagreement regarding the Atlantic Accord - they are spinning - it simply is untrue. How this has been allowed to continue without one media outlet providing evidence is beyond me and perpetrates a fraud on the Canadian public.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:51:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:51
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Elections Canada has released its preliminary advance poll figures. The bottom line: Turnout in these early polls is down 6.5% relative to the last election (see table above). Between the lines, there are a lot of interesting stories.
First, the Conservative campaign team has made a lot of its ability to get-out-the-vote (GOTV), particularly to advance polls. Doing so helps the party put votes "in the bank" before people have a chance to change their minds in the final weeks of the campaign. This year, as with each of the past three elections, the Tories could have used a few more "banked votes" to cushion their last-minute fall in the polls.
In a lecture in one of my classes last term, Tom Flanagan estimated that, in some swing ridings in 2006, the Conservatives led the Liberals by as much as 15 percentage points in these pre-vote contests. That is a huge advantage. This year's low numbers (at least, across the board) suggest the Tories have been less successful in pulling out the vote. This could be a sign of things to come on Election Day.
Second, the date of this year's election -- a day after Thanksgiving, and on the Jewish holiday of Sukkot -- has made turnout at the advance polls even more crucial to the Liberals' success (see my earlier discussion for the many reasons why). A close examination of one key riding -- Winnipeg South-Centre -- reveals no huge jump in advance poll turnout. If the Liberals are looking to keep close seats like this one, they had better hope their supporters don't eat too much turkey, or are willing to break religious traditions in order to vote on Tuesday.
Third, looking at the provincial breakdowns, advance poll numbers were down in two key "battleground" provinces: Ontario (-11.7%) and BC (-13.7%), but UP by 16.2% in Quebec (see table above). Again, if the Tories' GOTV strategy involved a heavy front-loading emphasis, it appears to have fallen flat in Ontario and BC. (I'd invite people to scour the riding-by-riding breakdowns to see whether turnout was higher in individual, swing constituencies.) But what's going on in Quebec? Without knowing which party won the advance-poll-war, it's difficult to say whether the increased turnout is the product of a better Tory groundgame in the province. If it is, these "banked votes" may prove important insurance for the Conservatives, whose popularity plummeted soon after these polls were closed. On the other hand, these advance voters may have led the stampede to the Bloc. Either way, we'll have to wait even longer to find out who won many Quebec ridings, as the counting of advance ballots will be crucial to the outcome in many close contests.
Lastly, if advance polls are any indication, we have little reason to expect turnout to rise significantly on October 14th. It's unlikely to drop much, either, but the election doesn't appear to have engaged the public any more than the Christmas campaign of 2005/2006. (In Alberta, incidently, turnout at advance polls was down 24.3%.)
Turnout at Advance Polls
Province/Territory
2006 (final figures)
2008 (preliminary)
% change
Newfoundland and Labrador
11,465
10,178
-11.2%
Prince Edward Island
11,287
10,402
-7.8%
Nova Scotia
52,049
37,715
-27.5%
New Brunswick
49,944
49,684
-0.5%
Quebec
376,724
437,891
16.2%
Ontario
651,697
575,605
-11.7%
Manitoba
43,433
35,607
-18.0%
Saskatchewan
41,644
37,754
-9.3%
Alberta
135,951
102,885
-24.3%
British Columbia
183,861
158,713
-13.7%
Yukon
1,241
1,492
20.2%
Northwest Territories
1,205
1,118
-7.2%
Nunavut
538
209
-61.1%
Total
1,561,039
1,459,253
-6.5%
calculated from: http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=med&document=oct0708b&dir=pre&lang=e&textonly=false
[updated Tue Oct 14 20:04:26 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 20:04
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larryl
Without the benefit of the final numbers I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate the CPC supporters who chose to re-elect Stephen Harper.I sincerely hope you were right in your choice . The majority of Canadians did not chose to give him the majority he wanted and I believe we will have to wait until he gets gets it to see what his real agenda is. Since Harper could not gain a majority against the weakest leader in Liberal history he should be weary of forcing another election in the near future . With the Liberals having rules that have an automatic convention after every election he would be wise to govern as a minority since he would fare worse against a leaderless Liberal party than he did this time against Dion. $300.000.000 to have an election might look to some as a waste of tax payers money when we end up with another minority. Celebrate the victory because it might be the last time for a long time even with all the opposition parties being broke for the next election in late March or early April.
[updated Wed Oct 15 00:15:20 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 00:15
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Foxer
Well I called it fairly close. I said
CPC - 144
Libs - 76
NDP - 38
Bloc - 50
I feel pretty good about how close i came.
To those liberals who said the cpc would get 88 seats ... hehehehehe - i'm going to enjoy a chuckle at your expense for a while.
Now - the next big question of course - will stephane dion step down or will he go down fighting? Dosanj has all but said he'll support bob rae in an immediate leadership race tonite, dion seems to suggest he'll stay on.
Will dion stay or will he take that long walk in the snow?
[updated Wed Oct 15 02:00:31 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 02:00
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larryl
Our predictions.Using the latest numbers from E.C.
CPC 37.6 Lib. 26.2 NDP 18.2 Bloc 10 Gr. 6.8
Using those numbers and how much we missed by for each party these are what I calculated . Darryl finished first at 4.3 HC second at 4.6 and Enlightened third at 4.8 Others were MAPs.5.5,Informed 6.2.MFox 6.4Craig 8, Christine 8.8, NDP Tweaked 14.8 and the only two with the Liberals ahead were GoHabs and yours truly at 23.2 and 22.2 respectively. Angus Reid finished 5.4%and Nik at 9 %. I think it was fun to make it a little more of a competition. I would like it if we predicted how long this parliament will last. Pick a date the government will fall or when Harper will call the next election ,not the number of months it will last. E.G. October 16,2009. Not my prediction.
[updated Thu Oct 16 20:20:58 EDT 2008]
16 Oct 20:20
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