Looking at the tracking over the weekend shows an uptick for the individual daily performance index for Stephen Harper on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Likewise, he has recovered some lost ground on the best Prime Minister measure. The research suggests a comparatively better election close for Harper, compared to Dion and Layton.
The Sunday only numbers show a significant jump in support for the Conservates - up to 37%. If this holds then the margin of victory will be higher than anticipated.
Looking at the big picture there are a number of narratives in this campaign.
First, the Conservatives were poised to win a majority mid campaign until the culture and crime issues revitalized BQ support. Harper’s stronger closing weekend and improvement in support in battleground Ontario has helped increase his margin over the Liberals and has secured a second mandate for the Conservatives. A review of the night-to-night individual results shows a good Thanksgiving Sunday for the Harper Conservatives.
Second, it is quite likely that the Liberals under Stephane Dion will post among the worst showings in Liberal Party history. The current low water mark is the 1984 Turner loss (28%) and the research points to a potential final Liberal outcome in that range. Of note, on the best Prime Minister measure, for only two days in the complete election did Stephane Dion register higher than Jack Layton. Although the Liberals did narrow that gap last week, the weekend performances of the leaders tipped the advantage back to the Conservatives.
Third, Jack Layton and the NDP, according to the research, had consistent levels of performance and ballot tracking and there will be an expected increase in their aggregate national support.
Fourth, Gilles Duceppe has averted a BQ meltdown by playing the culture card.
Fifth, Elizabeth May will likely preside over the best showing for the Green Party of Canada in terms of the aggregate number of Green votes. Getting into the leaders’ debate represented a breakthrough for the party but it is unknown what type of negative impact she had on Green Party support by telling Green voters to cast their ballot for the Liberals.
As you know, at Nanos Research, we place a very high premium on transparency. Hence for those of you interested in reading entrails please take note that we have posted on our website:
- our regular tracking report;
- the individual daily results for the last three nights of the ballot tracking so you can see the night- to-night shift on the weekend;
- detailed sub-regional numbers for ballot support; and,
- the results of our online “group wisdom” election projection trial.
You will notice that for our last day of tracking our final projection details the national ballot to one-tenth of one percentage point. Please note that our closing national sample is based on 1,500 instead of 1,200 randomly selected voters.
For those interested, today we have posted a 12 minute video on the Nanos website with a behind the scenes look at our nightly tracking, my views on research in general and polling during an election campaign.
Also, thank you for your interest in the CPAC-Nanos tracking during this election. Our objectives were to capture the trends, explain the campaign narratives and to present our findings straight-up. From my perspective, it was a success on all fronts
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight night at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,502 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,502 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research interviewed 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,502 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 11, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,269, MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34.2%
- Liberal Party 26.7%
- NDP 21.4%
- BQ 9.5%
- Green Party 8.2%
- *Undecided 16%
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,502 MoE ± 2.5%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (+2)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 16% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 94 (+7)
- Jack Layton 52 (-4)
- Stephane Dion 46 (-11)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (NC)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Aside from the state of the world economy, and the effect that it will have on C... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 13 Oct 14:54
Again more positive news for the Conservatives. The upswing continues into elect... more
Darryl (Ontario) 13 Oct 14:08
Awesome-hope just maybe enough 3 way battles might... just might.. squeeze out a... more
Peggy (New Brunswick) 13 Oct 14:27
I second that. Also, people have to vote for the party that matches their own... more
Craig (Alberta) 13 Oct 16:08
That is a very good question, and it will depend on one factor to a large degree... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 13 Oct 16:29
What you have just done is make a very sound argument for de-centralization of t... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 13 Oct 17:40
Comments
Darryl
Again more positive news for the Conservatives. The upswing continues into election day.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:08:54 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:08
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Twin
Ouch.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:19:03 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:19
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peggy
Awesome-hope just maybe enough 3 way battles might... just might.. squeeze out a majority????
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:27:32 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:27
37 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Those 20%+ undecided people in Quebec could pile onto the Bloc wave or just maybe some of them have been listening to Prime Minister Harper the last few days and maybe he'll be able to scrape out a few more seats there.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:31:01 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:31
PrairieFarmer
I'm desparately hoping for a majority. The country needs some political stability going forward - an end to the unproductive political bickering and grandstanding which was the recent preoccupation of the politicians in Ottawa. The Conservatives are not perfect, but I'm quite prepared to let them govern with a majority for 4 years rather than endure the mindless political posturing we have had for the last while.
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:57:22 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:57
Foxer
A majority is really what our country needed. But it's unlikely to happen.
It IS possible that harper will win a very strong minority, i've been saying 144 seats all along and he may get close to that number. And frankly - that would leave the liberals so weak that for the next two years or so he'll have an effective majority. The liberals wont oppose him any more than they did last time - failing to show up for votes, backing down when they're pushed etc.
It'll be a little harder in some ways due to the fact the ndp will have a stronger influence, but as long as it takes all three parties to bring him down, Harper will be able to rule as if he had a majority for the most part.
It'll have to be good enough.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:04:44 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:04
Twin
Hi PF. I agree with you that we would be better with a majority but his begs one question. Why does Mr. Harper not understand that he must respond to the needs of all regions of Canada to achieve this. The day he announced his cultural cuts, a friend and I had a conversation saying this would cost him the election in Québec. I'm amazed that a man with this much experience did not see this when it was so evident to an amateur observer like me. The same goes for this youth criminal proposal. In the same way, it's obvious that Mr. Dion's carbon tax is really an Alberta tax. Maybe it's better to have a minority government until we get a party that builds a much bigger tent. Otherwise we'd risk alienating large parts of the country and who wants to go through that again! I think Canadians are very wise voters. Large parts of the country could not live with a majority either way but we can all live with a minority. I call that a reasonable accomodation.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:25:16 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:25
They are in reach of a weak majority. Only problem with a weak majority is anyone in the CPC can act like Bill Casey and end the numerical lead very quickly. That would be very difficult to recover.
I am not confident 155 seats for the CPC would be the best for the HOC. We need to keep the other parties awake and opposing the mandate.
It would be nice to see some liberals vote in favour of our bills to ensure passage vs not showing up.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:00:41 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:00
Lex Llewdor
That's why it's a good idea in a weak majority to vote only opposition members to the Speaker's chair. That buys an extra one vote gap.
[updated Tue Oct 14 11:59:31 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 11:59
PrairieFarmer
Like I said, I can't pretend to understand the Quebec voter. I can't undertand how a mere $45 million reallocation within the arts and culture envelope could be a watershed in this election campaign. It makes no sense. Maybe it was Harper's comments about the cultural elite and the gala dinners. Frankly that irks me too when I see it. But I guess when someone's ox gets gored the bellering will be loud, especially when its a segment of society who live in front of a camera. Sadly, perhaps Kim Campbell's comments about elections being no time to debate serious issues wasn't so far off the mark!
Reasonable accomodation? That's just another term, and a poor one at that, for delaying decisions and action. Reasonable for whom? And who gets accomodated? No-one, with the possible exception of the politicians who 'accomodate', most often in vain, to try and get past the next election.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:26:28 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:26
larryl
Prairie Farmer. Since you have time to spend with us you must have all your crops in. Hope you had a good season. I have as much of a hard time trying to figure out how the west votes. The Co-op movement and the CCF started out their out of a sense of brotherhood and helping your neighbors. When did that change ? Was it black gold that turned really nice people into bitter greedy selfish capitalists ? I will get throttled by those who believe it was the N.E.P and easterners ignoring the west . Those eastern bastards are to blame for everything aren't they ? That said may I sincerely wish you a happy thanksgiving .
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:36:40 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:36
PrairieFarmer
larryl, I think you're part way there. Westerners do have a sense of community and generosity, and I do think we are still really nice people! You ought to come and experience it - we maybe just do it a different way.
Where you're wrong is that the Co-op movement and socialism was born here. This idea was in large part brought to us from - egads, the USA!! (in the 1920's by a Californian named Aaton Shapiro), and tried for a while. But just like anything else, when ideas don't work as planned you move on. Practical outcomes count for more than ideological dreams in the long run. I guess we found out we just couldn't afford the dream. By acknowledging that the marketplace is the best tool to guide our economic direction and bring about well being has served us better, and therefore replaced the ideas of the 1920's. If that makes us greedy selfish capitalists in your mind that's regretable. And as for being our brothers keeper, the way I see it is we've replaced collective, government charity with a more efficient method. If you check, I think you'll find Westerners as charitable as anyone.
Happy Thanksgiving.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:20:13 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:20
larryl
Prairie Farmer. The Co-op movement in Canada was born in the west but I did not know it was imported from the U.S. I don't doubt there are many nice people out there, the majority I believe, but unfortunately the ones who make the most noise and get noticed are the bitter ones who hate everything from the east. The economic boom in Sask. is going to change more than the financial situation . Money might not be the root of all evil but it sure changes people .
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:43:09 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:43
Lex Llewdor
For the better.
Live for yourself.
There's no one else
more worth living for.
Begging hands
and bleeding hearts
will always cry out for more.
- Rush, 'Anthem'
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:03:14 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:03
larryl
LEX.Typical Conservative thinking. The me first attitude is not something we should teach our children. We need a depression to teach us to be a more caring society and the greed of the corporate sector has brought us to the brink of one. The governments of the world are now bailing out the capitalists who caused this to happen. Guess who is going to get stuck with the bill for all this corporate charity . I prefer to help those in need .Don't know who said it but " A friend in deed is a friend indeed ". Pretty sure it wasn't a Conservative.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:42:29 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:42
Lex Llewdor
I fully intend to teach the "me first" attitude to my children.
They will out-compete their peers.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:49:44 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:49
wyly
socialism is alive and well in Saskatchewan, the odd conservative or liberal governments elected there is just sask voters way of clearing deadwood....wait a few years a new set of faces and the NDP will return as usual...
[updated Wed Oct 15 18:50:27 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 18:50
Twin
Hi PF. I undserstand you. I was born and raised in Winnipeg and moved East when I was 32 years old. I'm 60 now and I feel I'm still talking to 2 solitudes when I meet my Québec friends and when I talk to my family in Manitoba. Culture is different in Québec. It's a way of life and Mr. Harper's cuts took on a deep symbolism. How many small cities in the prairies host a Poetry Festival every summer that attracts thousands of people. Three Rivers does. I know that Western Canadians don't understand how that could work. In the same way, our Québecois friends were in shock last winter when they saw us leave for a week to go and see the Brier, in Winnipeg, in March! Curling is all Greek to them (apologies to Nik:)
It's true that you don't understand the Québec voters, and you don't need to since you'll probably never meet one in all your life. It's also true that Québec voters don't understand Western Canadians, and they don't have to since they'll probably never meet one either. But Mr. Harper and Mr. Dion are running to be Prime Minister of this country. A Prime Minister must understand all our cultures and speak for all of us. How else can he unify our country. The day a Conservative Westerner really understands Québec and can resonate in their hearts and minds, he or she will be Prime Minister for decades. For this to happen, he or she really has to understand that Québecois don't want to throw 14 year old kids in jail for the rest of their lives, no matter what awful crime they may have committed.
When I talk about reasonable accomodation, I have a belief that all Canadians, no matter our background or residence must feel comfortable with some of what our federal government does and stands for at least some of the time. If some of us are uncomfortable with our federal government all the time, we get into regional alienation again and that is absolutely useless. Mr. Manning destroyed the right in this country with Reform and it led to 3 majorities by Mr. Chrétien. Personnally I liked Mr. Chrétien but 3 majorities that leaves a good chunk of Western Canada out of the federal government is not good for our democracy.
Have a good end of the long weekend.
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:47:35 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:47
wyly
socially Quebec leads Canada, where they are now the rest of us will be in 10-20 years...
[updated Wed Oct 15 18:54:36 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 18:54
HC in AB
What you have just done is make a very sound argument for de-centralization of the federal government and leaving the matters where the provincies have constitutional authourity in the hands of the provinces.
[updated Mon Oct 13 17:40:45 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 17:40
PrairieFarmer
And on that matter, decentralization HC, you're right and its one area where many Quebecers and Westerners understand each other. Neither is fond of a Federalism which renders our regions impotent to determine their destiny. Maybe we aren't as far apart as we think. I increasingly think centralists, in an imperious way, contribute more to national disunity than regionalists.
And Mr. Twin, I’m glad you enjoy curling, but don't get too full of yourself when you characterize Western Canadian communities. We can host arts and cultural festivals just as well as Trois Riviere. They just might not be the same. Ever hear of the Winnipeg Folk Festival? Or the Dauphin Ukrainian Festival? Or the Calgary Stampede? And if you take in the array of what goes on, it’s quite a range of multi-cultural events.
You’re also wrong that Mr. Manning destroyed the right. If you remember, Mr. Mulroney and his successors brought it to its knees. We could debate why that happened. Mr. Manning began its rebuilding - and contrary to the modus operandi of the Bloc, did so by saying “the West wants in”. Mr. Manning, despite never becoming Prime Minister, did more to reduce regional tensions in Canada than most of our politicians who boast of themselves as Federalists.
[updated Mon Oct 13 20:57:58 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 20:57
larryl
Peg . Would love to see your predictions on the other thread. I think women have a very important role in this election . The Reform/ Alliance members of the CPC will bring back issues that affect women but you still prefer the right who just might take away your right to chose . Can't figure that one out.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:36:45 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:36
Darryl
There comes that fear mongering again.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:39:12 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:39
MichaelFox
Right to choose what ?
[updated Tue Oct 14 00:31:05 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 00:31
Peggy
Doesn't bother me-I'm Catholic!!!!
[updated Tue Oct 14 09:13:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 09:13
larryl
Peg. Being a catholic does not make you any less a woman. Your rights and the rights of others should not be taken away by some Reformer in Alberta. No one is forcing you to do anything you don't want to but you should not interfere with another woman's choice. The CPC is full of fundamentalist Christians who will put private member bills forward that Harper says is not part of his agenda. It is about our rights and freedoms and a Good catholic would support that.
[updated Tue Oct 14 09:33:49 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 09:33
Lex Llewdor
You clearly don't understand the pro-life position.
I'm pro-choice, but let me explain the pro-life position.
Abortion is murder. The victims are helpless. Allowing those murders to be carried out is morally abhorrent behaviour. Therefore, the pro-life works works tirelessly to prevent those murders. To them, this isn't about freedom - it's about life. To them, allowing abortions - or worse, publicly funding them - is equivalent to indiscriminate killings, or even genocide. They're horrified that anyone could even contemplate doing it, and those who do must therefore must be sick, sick people - monsters - who must be stopped. Doctors who perform abortions are no better than serial killers. Worse, even, as they seem to be proud of what they do.
That's the pro-life position. There's very little common ground to be found on this issue. People who are pro-life have no interest in your "right to choose" just as they have no interest in your "right to murder" or your "right to rape". It's not a real right, they would say.
Talking about the "right to choose" just makes pro-life people think you're evil.
[updated Tue Oct 14 12:10:12 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 12:10
larryl
Lex.Why is the pro-life opinion more important than that of a woman who wants to for whatever reason end an unwanted pregnancy. You prefer she goes to some back room quack and risk her life. I am against abortion but have no right to force my opinion on anybody. Extreme right wing fundamentalist Christians will at the first opportunity try to pass legislation to force women back to using coat hangers when other options are not available. It is not only those rights that are in danger with bible thumping Christians. A person's sexual orientation should not be anyone's business but their own. No one is forcing you to approve or take part in anything. How far will we go to impose our way of thinking on other people ? Are we going to stop non Christians from coming here because our founding fathers happened to be Christians. It is strange that the pro life people are so against murdering the unborn but had no problem with killing millions of living people when their ancestors came here and murdered those who were here before us.
[updated Tue Oct 14 13:16:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 13:16
Lex Llewdor
I agree with you on the issues, Larry. But your first question, "Why is the pro-life opinion more important than that of a woman who wants to for whatever reason end an unwanted pregnancy?" suggests you didn't even read my explanation of the pro-life position.
I disagree with your interpretation of the Conservatives' legislative intent. You make me wish for a majority just so they can not do that and prove you wrong.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:07:37 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:07
larryl
Lex. I read and understand the pro life position but they have no right to force that on any one especially through legislation . When they are given a mandate by the majority of Canadians on that specific question they could then pass legislation to change the law.They need more than just majority of Tory supporters. I don't have any stats on what percentage of the population would like to see any change to existing legislation but I fear many Reform/Alliance M.P.s would love to force their beliefs on the rest of us.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:49:46 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:49
Lex Llewdor
Oh, a democratic argument.
They're making a moral argument. Enforcing a prohibition on abortion across Canada would be equivalent (to them) to enforcing a prohibition on murder across Canada. Regardless of how popular it was, it would still be the right thing to do.
You, however, seem to hold that a prohibition on murder would be unacceptable if the majority of Canadians opposed it.
I don't think you'll find many takers for that argument. Most people think that some things are fundamentally immoral, regardless of whether the community around them agrees.
[updated Tue Oct 14 15:57:51 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 15:57
larryl
Lex. How can you claim to be pro choice and yet refer to abortion as murder. I thought that was the pro-life philosophy. Any body who believes women choose to commit murder is sick. It is their body and they should not be forced to carry a baby to term simply because someone disagrees with their decision. There is no way to stop abortions but there is a way to stop illegal dangerous procedures . Women will be placed in dangerous situations if the law is changed.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:45:47 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:45
Lex Llewdor
See? You're not reading.
I'm describing the pro-life position. I don't hold the pro-life position, but at least I know what it is.
[updated Tue Oct 14 18:23:03 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 18:23
larryl
Lex. Why would you keep repeating the pro life position if you don't agree with it . You could make your beliefs clearer without telling me what others believe.
"You, however, seem to hold that a prohibition on murder would be unacceptable if the majority of Canadians opposed it." That sounds a lot like your opinion is abortion is murder.
I don't think my position on having a mandate from the majority of Canadians to change the law infers that I would tolerate murder in any form. Abortion is not murder but since your a man you will never be put in a position to make that judgement. Most women will tell you they never would have the procedure if they thought it was. They live with their decision and would go nuts if they felt they were guilty of anything .
[updated Tue Oct 14 18:52:55 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 18:52
HC in AB
My position is that abortion is not murder, your position is that abortion is not murder, Lex's position is that abortion is not murder.
All Lex is saying, as I read it, is that if you want to understand why the the pro-life group so profoundly believes in their position, it is because thy believe with all of their heart, mind and soul that abortion is murder.
We can call them right wing fundamentlist wing-nuts, or mainline Catholic sheep or whatever we wish, but we also have to understand the depth of the belief system. It will help us to understand why the pro-life faction of our society is likely never going to dissappear.
[updated Tue Oct 14 19:10:53 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 19:10
larryl
HC. Why would we let pro lifers impose their opinions on women who make a difficult decision. They are not murderers but changing the law might them criminals. How would that help stop unwanted pregnancies .
[updated Tue Oct 14 20:08:36 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 20:08
Peggy
I don't feel threatened in any way by Harper or the conservatives and most Canadians don't anymore either. I believe in the right to life and its has all been fear mongering. You can tell as no one even mentions it anymore. It's not even an issue this election.
[updated Tue Oct 14 13:38:10 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 13:38
larryl
Peg. It's not an issue since it is part of the hidden agenda everybody denies exists. Should you decide for other women . You can believe in the right to life but you should not force your opinion on any one else. I grew up a catholic and saw a of lot good catholic girls screw up their lives by marrying jerks because they had no other option than having babies they did not plan or want. The convents were full of girls who went there to keep people from knowing they were pregnant . Orphanages funded by the catholic church always had plenty of residents people could adopt because botched abortions made girls unable to have babies after they suffered through illegal procedures. Do you really want to risk going back to that era when they change the laws.
[updated Tue Oct 14 14:17:45 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 14:17
Peggy
Not going to happen.
[updated Wed Oct 15 13:22:07 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 13:22
wyly
it's not mentioned because it would forever end the conservatives quest for a majority, but let's not be so niave to believe that many ex-reformers don't hold that belief...after all why does Harper keep such a tight hold/gag on the backbenchers...there are libs that hold that belief but it after many lib majority governments it's clear what their policy is...
[updated Wed Oct 15 19:04:50 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 19:04
HC in AB
Aside from the state of the world economy, and the effect that it will have on Canada, (which seems to have become the ballot question) what is the one issue that would interest any of you that has not been addressed by any of the parties in this election campaign.
For me, it is about the stance that we would take on the international arena relative to climate change. Even a massive reduction in our carbon footprint has no material impact on the world stage. Expanding industrial economies in China and India and an expanding middle class in those countries will put 10's millions of cars on their roads compared to the 20 million or so now on the roads in Canada.
None of the parties has really addressed this, aside from motherhood statements like "we will be and example for the rest of the world to follow", "we will not export raw bitumen to countries with less stringent emissions goals than ours", etc.
Any comments?
[updated Mon Oct 13 14:54:20 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 14:54
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
christine
There will be no majority with these numbers. In fact, the results are likely to be very similar to 2006.
Plugging in the latest Nanos numbers into the election predictor on the Hill and Knowlton web site gives the following results (http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/):
CONS: 126
LIBS: 86
BLOC: 50
NDP: 46
GRN: 0
IND: 2
Other election prediction sites give similar results. Here is the current prediction from Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project (http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php):
CONS: 125
LIBS: 94
BLOC: 51
NDP: 36
GRN: 0
IND: 2
The current prediction from Democratic Space (http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/):
CONS: 128
LIBS: 92
BLOC: 52
NDP: 34
GRN: 0
IND: 2
And, finally, the current prediction from Trendlines Research (http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm):
CONS: 131
LIBS: 105
BLOC: 42
NDP: 28
GRN: 0
IND: 2
The main reason why the Conservatives will not win a majority (or even a strong minority) is because they are not leading in either of the two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec. According to the Nanos regional breakdown of today's poll (http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-13-2008E.pdf) the Conservatives currently have 19 per cent support in Quebec, behind the Liberals at 22 and way behind the Bloc at 40. As for Ontario, the Liberals currently lead at 35 per cent vs 33 for the Conservatives and 26 per cent for the NDP. As for Atlantic Canada, Conservatives trail there as well: 25 per cent support vs 41 for the Liberals and 24 for the NDP. The only area of the country where the Conservatives currently are leading is the west. But since they already have most of those seats already, leading in the west doesn't do them much good.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:17:27 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:17
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Time for our predictions. Could we restrict this thread to just what you think each party will get in terms of percentage of popular vote. We can ridicule other peoples opinions on a different thread.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:28:13 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:28
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Taylor Cutforth
I wonder how many are ignorantly basing their votes on what is going on down south rather then on which candidate best represents their riding and are the best fit for the job.
In most cases that happens to be a Conservative, much to the dislike of some who prefer someone closer to their own ideological perspectives.
But they should learn to get over themselves and vote for in the best interests of all people and not just themselves.
"Strategic voting" won't yield positive results... and at the same time subverts our democracy in ways that go against its intended purpose(s).
Thus continues the hypocrisy from some in the "Left" of this country.
Liberals on the other hand are not really "Left" but aim to serve their own self interests...
Jobs for friends and so forth... Anyone who has been paying attention to CPAC over the years knows how much the Liberals no longer deserve to be a party let alone be in opposition.
What-A-Mess.
Hopefully voters will come to understand this in time before they vote and don't allow themselves to be drawn in by the hardline partisan rhetoric which exists predominately amongst the current opposition... and vote in some new groups more suitable and reflective of our country's diversity.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:46:47 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:46
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Has anyone noticed that Nik called more people per night for the last three nights and the number of undecided has increased. They will be the deciding factor if they turn out in large numbers. All of you on the right made up your minds who to vote for before this polling started and I believe the public did the same thing . The undecided could not make up their minds if they should vote NDP or Green . With all the polls of decided voters showing Harper ahead they will decide when they walk into the polling booth that they need to stop Harper so they will mark their X for the only party who can do that. I believe the Liberals will gain the most from the undecided because so many don' t trust Harper and they will try to stop him from getting a majority. Make your predictions on the thread above .
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:07:53 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:07
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suedo
The time has come to decide our future. Good luck to all Canadians - we should get the government we elect.
Another minority.
I think the next election will achieve a majority - so we should enjoy this while it lasts.
I would like guesses on this: If there is another minority how many months will it last?
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:16:37 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:16
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Don Macfarlane
Nik: Thanks for doing such a great job keeping the rest of us informed throughout the campaign; it is greatly appreciated!
[updated Mon Oct 13 18:59:09 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 18:59
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spudser2008
With Elizabeth not having to challenge the Grits for votes in Nova Scotia, the Green popular vote is of no concern. Sorry Elizabeth, we still have fist past the post. It seems that the coziness between May and Dion is biting both of them. I am surprised at Layton's numbers considering he wants to shut down Fort Mac & Fort MacKay and does not want all Canadian small businesses to realize reduced income tax. All he talks about is big oil an dbanks - there are small businesses who also would benefit from reduced federal taxes - tell it like it is Jack. Jack talks about lost manufacturing jobs - what about the 110,000 jobs created last month - many are manufacturing jobs.
On CPAC today, Harper is speaking like he should have spoken over the past two weeks. With speeches like those today in Atlantic Canada, he would have climbed up by at least 3-5 points in the polls.
[updated Mon Oct 13 19:49:56 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 19:49
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MAPSONBURT
Is it just me or is the tone a heck of a lot more civilized today? I only read about 3 posts in all of the above that could be considered to be blatently partisan (1 Tory, 1 Lib and 1 NDP supporter by my reckoning). It is SO refreshing. Too bad the election couldn't have been like this.
Thank you folks for toning it down today. Must be the turkey or that we are all just really thankful for the great country we live in.
How ever you decide to vote, do get out there and exercise your democratic right. And may the best candidate in each of your ridings win! Good luck!!!
[updated Mon Oct 13 20:59:13 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 20:59
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
What happens if we have a hung parliament, in other words an effective tie, or one where the maximun seats of any one party don't go over, say, 115 seats.
[updated Mon Oct 13 21:08:17 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 21:08
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Grand Merde ... and the US will likely elect Obama ... well, our voters have the right to be wrong.
We'll see Tuesday.
[updated Mon Oct 13 22:44:03 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 22:44
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Darryl
I see that the US Stock Markets climbed on average 11% today. The Canadian markets were closed for the holiday but they are likely to be affected in a big way tomorrow on election day.
I want to know what our federal government will do about this wild change in the stock market. Will the government intervene right away and bring in some measures to resolve this situation? Surely with such an unprecedented change in the market our government will do something to calm the Canadian public?
[updated Mon Oct 13 23:10:36 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 23:10
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Non-aligned in Toronto
I still find the number of undecided voters unusually large. This could play out a number of ways: Most likely; undecided won't vote. Other possibilities: Many undecideds will vote but will split along approximately the same lines as decided voters. Many undecideds are upset with leading parties and will register a protest vote for Greens, NDP or a small party where available.
I really don't have a clue where the UD vote will go but caution all that there is still a lot of potential volatility out there.
[updated Tue Oct 14 01:29:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 01:29
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OTTAWA, Oct 13 - The final poll on the eve of Tuesday's general election in Canada projected a strengthened Conservative minority government and a weakened official opposition Liberal Party.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081014/wl_canada_nm/canada_us_politics_projection_canada_1
The Ekos poll issued Monday night projected that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives would advance to approximately 136 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.
This would be a net gain of nine seats but would still fall short of the 155 Harper needs for majority, in which he would not have to rely on other parties to get his budgets and legislation through Parliament.
Harper was elected with a minority for the first time in January 2006 and managed, by some calculations, to have the longest minority government in Canadian history.
Under the Ekos projection the Liberals, who had a hard time winning public support for a carbon tax at a time of high energy prices, would lose 11 seats and end up with 84.
The Bloc Quebecois, which advocates independence for the majority French-speaking province of Quebec but has not pushed that in this campaign, would rise five seats to 51.
The leftist New Democratic Party would gain between five and 35 seats, and two seats would be independent.
Harper called the election on September 7 to seek a renewed mandate to govern. He predicted it would produce another minority but said that once re-elected the opposition parties would be reluctant to block his agenda, at least to start with.
Ekos's automated telephone rolling poll covered the three days through Monday. In popular support, it had the Conservatives out front with 34.8 percent compared with 26.4 percent for the Liberals, 19.4 percent for the New Democrats, 9.8 percent for the Bloc and 9.6 percent for the Green Party.
It predicted the Greens would have no seats. The party struck out in the last election too, but one independent legislator joined them last month.
The poll covered 2,358 committee voters and carries a margin of error of 2 points 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by Randall Palmer)
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:15:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:15
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MRM
Last Night, Claude Genest, Deputy Leader of the Greens was on Duffy telling everyone to vote ABL. He says that the Liberals have used them and double crossed them. The former Green, now Liberal candidate from Saanich Island BC, Briony Penn was on with him. He had less than kind words for her. The Greens will be following this up with a national email and phone campaign to their candidates to get the word out to dump the Liberals. The NDP will likely be get the vote benefit from this but the largest benefactor will be the Tories as it will minimize the Liberal strategic vote. Of course not one word in the Liberal biased MSM about it but you can listen to on the CTV website under Duffy Live 13 Oct.
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:22:19 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:22
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Will the Liberal Venue for election results will it be empty?
"It is quite likely that the Liberals under Stephane Dion will post among the worst showings in Liberal Party history. The current low water mark is the 1984 Turner loss (28%) and the research points to a potential final Liberal outcome in that range." -Nanos
What rivals will be left for a run at the leadership?
Bob Rae, Brian Tobin, McKenna, Belinda Stronach come to mind.
I don't think Iggy can make a serious run if he barely holds onto his riding. A leader should have a gap of +3,000 votes.
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:37:46 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:37
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MRM
After all the sanctimonious crap from Liberals about the Cadman tape the truth is finally starting to come out and now it is the Liberals own two experts who are saying that the Liberals (not Zytaruk) are guilty. An excerpt from an article on today's CTV website:
New report casts doubt on Cadman affair tape
Updated Mon. Oct. 13 2008 8:10 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
A new report has cast doubt on the authenticity of a taped conversation which the Liberals say implicates Conservative Leader Stephen Harper in a bribery scandal involving the late MP Chuck Cadman.
CTV News reported Monday that two audio experts, hired by the Liberal Party of Canada to analyze the tape, found that "the recording cannot be shown to be complete."
The latest, Liberal-funded report states "it can be postulated that the original ... tape recording was digitized, edited digitally and then electronically placed on the evidence tape associated with this dispute."
[updated Tue Oct 14 08:49:45 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 08:49
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suedo
Good Morning and here we go....
Already voted and NL will be reporting first...
Good Luck to all
[updated Tue Oct 14 09:55:30 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 09:55
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suedo
Please help: Including NIK
Here is the promise:
Much of the tension that has arisen between the federal and provincial governments over the last decade is the result of the fiscal imbalance. Paul Martin's government denies the fiscal imbalance exists despite the fact the provinces are struggling to deliver essential services such as health and education while the federal government accumulates surpluses. I don't think this is fair and I don't think this is right. A conservative government is committed to bringing balance to the fiscal relationship between the federal and provincial governments.
A conservative government would also support changes to the equalization program to ensure provinces and territories have the opportunity to develop their economies and sustain important core social services. We will remove non-renewable resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada.
That was what Harper promised!
This has nothing to do with a promise on the Atlantic Accord - that did not happen.
When the national media refers to a disagreement regarding the Atlantic Accord - they are spinning - it simply is untrue. How this has been allowed to continue without one media outlet providing evidence is beyond me and perpetrates a fraud on the Canadian public.
[updated Tue Oct 14 16:51:16 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 16:51
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Elections Canada has released its preliminary advance poll figures. The bottom line: Turnout in these early polls is down 6.5% relative to the last election (see table above). Between the lines, there are a lot of interesting stories.
First, the Conservative campaign team has made a lot of its ability to get-out-the-vote (GOTV), particularly to advance polls. Doing so helps the party put votes "in the bank" before people have a chance to change their minds in the final weeks of the campaign. This year, as with each of the past three elections, the Tories could have used a few more "banked votes" to cushion their last-minute fall in the polls.
In a lecture in one of my classes last term, Tom Flanagan estimated that, in some swing ridings in 2006, the Conservatives led the Liberals by as much as 15 percentage points in these pre-vote contests. That is a huge advantage. This year's low numbers (at least, across the board) suggest the Tories have been less successful in pulling out the vote. This could be a sign of things to come on Election Day.
Second, the date of this year's election -- a day after Thanksgiving, and on the Jewish holiday of Sukkot -- has made turnout at the advance polls even more crucial to the Liberals' success (see my earlier discussion for the many reasons why). A close examination of one key riding -- Winnipeg South-Centre -- reveals no huge jump in advance poll turnout. If the Liberals are looking to keep close seats like this one, they had better hope their supporters don't eat too much turkey, or are willing to break religious traditions in order to vote on Tuesday.
Third, looking at the provincial breakdowns, advance poll numbers were down in two key "battleground" provinces: Ontario (-11.7%) and BC (-13.7%), but UP by 16.2% in Quebec (see table above). Again, if the Tories' GOTV strategy involved a heavy front-loading emphasis, it appears to have fallen flat in Ontario and BC. (I'd invite people to scour the riding-by-riding breakdowns to see whether turnout was higher in individual, swing constituencies.) But what's going on in Quebec? Without knowing which party won the advance-poll-war, it's difficult to say whether the increased turnout is the product of a better Tory groundgame in the province. If it is, these "banked votes" may prove important insurance for the Conservatives, whose popularity plummeted soon after these polls were closed. On the other hand, these advance voters may have led the stampede to the Bloc. Either way, we'll have to wait even longer to find out who won many Quebec ridings, as the counting of advance ballots will be crucial to the outcome in many close contests.
Lastly, if advance polls are any indication, we have little reason to expect turnout to rise significantly on October 14th. It's unlikely to drop much, either, but the election doesn't appear to have engaged the public any more than the Christmas campaign of 2005/2006. (In Alberta, incidently, turnout at advance polls was down 24.3%.)
Turnout at Advance Polls
Province/Territory
2006 (final figures)
2008 (preliminary)
% change
Newfoundland and Labrador
11,465
10,178
-11.2%
Prince Edward Island
11,287
10,402
-7.8%
Nova Scotia
52,049
37,715
-27.5%
New Brunswick
49,944
49,684
-0.5%
Quebec
376,724
437,891
16.2%
Ontario
651,697
575,605
-11.7%
Manitoba
43,433
35,607
-18.0%
Saskatchewan
41,644
37,754
-9.3%
Alberta
135,951
102,885
-24.3%
British Columbia
183,861
158,713
-13.7%
Yukon
1,241
1,492
20.2%
Northwest Territories
1,205
1,118
-7.2%
Nunavut
538
209
-61.1%
Total
1,561,039
1,459,253
-6.5%
calculated from: http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=med&document=oct0708b&dir=pre&lang=e&textonly=false
[updated Tue Oct 14 20:04:26 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 20:04
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larryl
Without the benefit of the final numbers I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate the CPC supporters who chose to re-elect Stephen Harper.I sincerely hope you were right in your choice . The majority of Canadians did not chose to give him the majority he wanted and I believe we will have to wait until he gets gets it to see what his real agenda is. Since Harper could not gain a majority against the weakest leader in Liberal history he should be weary of forcing another election in the near future . With the Liberals having rules that have an automatic convention after every election he would be wise to govern as a minority since he would fare worse against a leaderless Liberal party than he did this time against Dion. $300.000.000 to have an election might look to some as a waste of tax payers money when we end up with another minority. Celebrate the victory because it might be the last time for a long time even with all the opposition parties being broke for the next election in late March or early April.
[updated Wed Oct 15 00:15:20 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 00:15
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Foxer
Well I called it fairly close. I said
CPC - 144
Libs - 76
NDP - 38
Bloc - 50
I feel pretty good about how close i came.
To those liberals who said the cpc would get 88 seats ... hehehehehe - i'm going to enjoy a chuckle at your expense for a while.
Now - the next big question of course - will stephane dion step down or will he go down fighting? Dosanj has all but said he'll support bob rae in an immediate leadership race tonite, dion seems to suggest he'll stay on.
Will dion stay or will he take that long walk in the snow?
[updated Wed Oct 15 02:00:31 EDT 2008]
15 Oct 02:00
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larryl
Our predictions.Using the latest numbers from E.C.
CPC 37.6 Lib. 26.2 NDP 18.2 Bloc 10 Gr. 6.8
Using those numbers and how much we missed by for each party these are what I calculated . Darryl finished first at 4.3 HC second at 4.6 and Enlightened third at 4.8 Others were MAPs.5.5,Informed 6.2.MFox 6.4Craig 8, Christine 8.8, NDP Tweaked 14.8 and the only two with the Liberals ahead were GoHabs and yours truly at 23.2 and 22.2 respectively. Angus Reid finished 5.4%and Nik at 9 %. I think it was fun to make it a little more of a competition. I would like it if we predicted how long this parliament will last. Pick a date the government will fall or when Harper will call the next election ,not the number of months it will last. E.G. October 16,2009. Not my prediction.
[updated Thu Oct 16 20:20:58 EDT 2008]
16 Oct 20:20
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