With two days left in the campaign the latest CPAC Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a six point lead over the Liberals nationally (33% to 27%). Support for the NDP, after trending up for a few days has held steady at twenty two percent nationally. In battleground Ontario the Tories and Liberals remain in a tight race with only two points separating them in our latest tracking (Conservatives - 34% ; Liberals - 32%) with the NDP trending up to one in four (26%) in the province.
On the CPAC Nanos Leadership Index Stephen Harper has bounced back from the declines earlier this week and now holds a 30 point lead on Stephane Dion, with Jack Layton a further one point back (Harper - 87; Dion - 57; Layton - 56). On the best PM front, Harper (30%) is ten points ahead of Layton (20%) with Dion close behind at 17%).
With Thanksgiving upon us, today will be our final day in the field prior to the election with our last set of tracking numbers released Monday at 2 pm.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,404 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.6%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,404 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research will be interviewing 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,500 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 10, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,161, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (+1)
- Liberal Party 27 (-1)
- NDP 22 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,404 MoE ± 2.6%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 6% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 87 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 57 (+9)
- Jack Layton 56 (-5)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard