With two days left in the campaign the latest CPAC Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a six point lead over the Liberals nationally (33% to 27%). Support for the NDP, after trending up for a few days has held steady at twenty two percent nationally. In battleground Ontario the Tories and Liberals remain in a tight race with only two points separating them in our latest tracking (Conservatives - 34% ; Liberals - 32%) with the NDP trending up to one in four (26%) in the province.
On the CPAC Nanos Leadership Index Stephen Harper has bounced back from the declines earlier this week and now holds a 30 point lead on Stephane Dion, with Jack Layton a further one point back (Harper - 87; Dion - 57; Layton - 56). On the best PM front, Harper (30%) is ten points ahead of Layton (20%) with Dion close behind at 17%).
With Thanksgiving upon us, today will be our final day in the field prior to the election with our last set of tracking numbers released Monday at 2 pm.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,404 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.6%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,404 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research will be interviewing 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,500 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 10, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,161, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (+1)
- Liberal Party 27 (-1)
- NDP 22 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,404 MoE ± 2.6%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 6% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 87 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 57 (+9)
- Jack Layton 56 (-5)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
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More excellent results for the CPC with these numbers. The Ontario lead is holdi... more
Darryl (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:00
Trend is for a widening gap between Libs and Cons. Two days to election lib mom... more
fortescue (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:09
Merde Time for the NDP & Greens to move their vote to the Liberal Camp We... more
John B (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:50
I have always been very clear that I feel very strongly that people should vote ... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 12 Oct 17:58
Hey Merde: If you want a carbon tax that badly, you can pay mine for me.... more
eveable (Ontario) 12 Oct 18:57
In fairness - i think layton has been pretty true to his platform. He's held the... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 13 Oct 01:40
Comments
Darryl
More excellent results for the CPC with these numbers. The Ontario lead is holding and the NDP is edging up on the liberals.
The latest liberal hidden agenda smear campaign isn't working so far.
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:00:30 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 14:00
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
Trend is for a widening gap between Libs and Cons. Two days to election lib momentum definately gone. Strong Canadian economic news combined with the dion Gaffe may be the turning point in this election. We will see Monday. Happy Thanksgiving
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:09:23 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 14:09
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike Stokes
it's the weekend and the CP are going up what, a change. Good to see Canadians are coming to their senses. 6 point spread could yield more seats for the CP as the Libs are below their 06 number.
Jack for opposition divide the left!
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:19:01 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 14:19
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Merde
Time for the NDP & Greens to move their vote to the Liberal Camp
We simply can't afford Steve 'Herbert Hoover' Harper Govt, minority or majority
Vote for a real Team
Vote Liberal
.
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:50:27 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 14:50
26 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HC in AB
I have a suggestion for the Liberal Party of Canada... If you wish to co-opt the NDP/Green vote, then you should espouse policies that appeal to the current NDP/Green supporters, not come along at the end of the day and say please, please we need you, we know that we do not have a platform that appeals to your philosophy, but let's make this a two party system.
We all know the Liberal Party, traditionally having been the party of big business, will not do that.
All 4 of the other parties have very strong grassroots support and small-donation indivdual funding, their supporters speak with their wallets as well as their votes. The Liberal Party has historically depended on very large corporate and individual donations. With the re-vamp of the political funding laws, they are basically bankrupt.
The Liberals know that if they promoted policy that actually appealed to the 30% or so of the electorate that supports the NDP/Green Parties, they would bleed a large proportion of their core support to the right.
In effect, I fully expect the Liberal Party to dissapear from the political stage over the next 10 to 15 years.
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:25:14 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 15:25
Darryl
I think there is a serious possibility that the liberals will be almost wiped out in the election that will follow this one unless they get a very strong liberal who is widely liked.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:00:31 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:00
In the immortal words of Wm F Buckley Jr "I would agree with you if you were right"
The fact is if you want Harper to win, then by all means vote Green or NDP and split the progressive vote - that is not the Liberal's pleading. That is real politic.
It may suck, but that is the way it is.
Half a loaf is better than none - sometimes you have to compromise in the interests of the greater good.
The choice is yours
Vote wisely.
Vote Liberal.
.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:03:19 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:03
Darryl
Well they might as well just voted directly for their local CPC candidate then. That's the best advice I can give them.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:12:28 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:12
HC in AB
Then why don't you "compromise" your supposed "principles" and vote NDP?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:51:44 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:51
Mike Stokes
typical Liberals they only look out for themselves, I'm sure most NDP and Green supporters won't stoop to your level.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:51:46 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:51
Foxer
It would make more sense for the libs and green to get behind the NDP. The ndp has the momentum and a more effective campaign - and lets face it, dion didn't do anything to 'oppose' harper when he was in power anyway. Might as well go with a party that actually shows up to vote.
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:50:15 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 15:50
The NDP is a socialist party with absurd policies and will never become the govt of Canada. They are a protest party and have no real bench strength.
The Liberal Party is the pragmatic, progressive party of the middle with the strongest Team by far.
Perhaps those who don't want Harper might consider switching to the next best real alternative and vote Liberal.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:08:00 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:08
Foxer
They are within 5 points of the libs bud - they're no 'protest party'. That may have been true in the past but it's certainly not true now. I don't agree with their policies, but then i don't agree with the libs either.
The ndp is moving more towards the center and is definitely an alternative to the libs. But if the mission is to stop harper, they're probably a better choice.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:11:49 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:11
HC in AB
The Liberal Party is bankrupt, both in terms of money and ideas.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:24:17 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:24
Mike Stokes
The Liberal party is just a group that looks out for small pockets off the country.
Vote ABL and put an end to the Liberal Party!
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:53:20 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:53
HC in AB
What I was actually referring to, outside of the who may go where in this election, is that the political philosophies of the 3 national parties in opposition are too diverse at the moment to result in anything but a split vote. If the political philosphies were to converge over time, the core Liberal philosophy would have to move to the left even further. This would leave many of the centre-right faction of the Liberal Party as political orphans with no place to go but to the CPC.
My own opinion is that no matter how you cut it, the CPC will be a political force in the country for a long time to come.
In the present, I think that the NDP and the most of the Green vote will hold this time, it appears to me that the NDP/Green vote that has slid to the Libs on election day in the past is very tired of holding their nose and voting for the Libs.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:10:37 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:10
Foxer
I think that you're probably right. People dont' see the point in voting lib any more. If you're a leftie - might as well actually vote for a left party. If you're center or right - there's a clear choice.
The libs just are the same old same old.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:20:49 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:20
eveable
Hey Merde: If you want a carbon tax that badly, you can pay mine for me.
[updated Sun Oct 12 18:57:22 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 18:57
dgbeaulne
Merde,
No, it's not time for the NDP & Greens to move to the Liberals. It's time for the Liberals to accept that their arrogance has soured many people's view of that once great party. It's time for the Liberals to accept that they will never get back the power they once held because this virulent arrogance has so completely turned us "center" people away from you. This sickness that the Liberals have is the cause of all their problems.
[updated Sun Oct 12 19:49:45 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 19:49
My goodness, you Con-Trolls are a transparently self-important lot.
Election day will tell the story
Enjoy your BBQs at Stornoway - I hear they will be serving Harper au gratin once Fatboy is tossed out of 24 Sussex.
Hold out for a nice roast of man - Steve should be nice n' juicy.
No guarantees on the Lysteria though ....
There's still time to repent - Vote Liberal
[updated Sun Oct 12 20:00:52 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 20:00
dgbeaulne
I never personally attacked you, however, you come back with the old Con-troll bit attack. I used to be a Liberal card holder, but I saw the sickness infecting many party members and I left out of disgust.
Thanks for proving my point.
[updated Sun Oct 12 20:51:40 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 20:51
merritton
Actually, many predicted in the last election that the Liberals need a good time out for a least a couple of elections to fix what is broken and shed the arrogant culture of entitlement that surrounds their party. The surge of NDP support in Ontario to 26 % and rising proves the Liberals can no longer count on any kind of bump from strategic voting. They are now in danger of losing seats in both northern Ontario and TO to the NDP and 905/519 seats to the Cons. Even future leadership hopefuls like Kennedy and Iggy may bite the dust.
Even worse for the Liberals is the state of the party's finances. If they stay in the mid 20s for e-day they are in serious financial trouble after the election. As much as that party repulses me I almost feel sorry for them....almost.
[updated Sun Oct 12 20:42:15 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 20:42
dgbeaulne
I'll come out and say that I don't feel sorry for them in the least. Their problems are self-inflicted. Their holier-than-thou attitude is self-inflicted. Their culture of entitlement is self-inflicted. I was hoping that they might have learned a little bit of humility, but in seeing what has transpired during this election, in talking with the Liberal candidate in my riding, and in reading posts on this and other blogsites, I am left with no other conclusion that they, the party and it's members, have no idea that they need a dose of humility.
The entire body is sick, but in denial.
[updated Sun Oct 12 20:57:54 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 20:57
merritton
Yes, it amazes me that even after the last election, they run this one exactly the same. Same vague promises, same scaremongering techniques, same call for strategic voting in the final 10 days. It's like they are incapable of learning from past mistakes. It's pretty sad when the only reason you can give people to vote for your party is to steal the votes of parties you are beating in order to beat the party you are losing to out of fear. I guess a good drubbing will be the best thing for them.
[updated Sun Oct 12 21:22:00 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 21:22
prg
Les Liberals sont merde.
[updated Sun Oct 12 22:38:26 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 22:38
prg
Apologies for double post ... MORE MERDE! ;)
But seriously... as everyone else says: offer voters a REASON to vote Liberal and we might say yes. Maybe...
But this sctick: "abandon what you believe in and vote for us... because... well, just because... well... we're, like, special... and, of course, we're better than your party... So put us in power". That is EXACTLY what voters are rejecting. And why the Liberals have no future of they don't abandon that attitude. And I am starting to get really ticked hearing it from Liberals for the 3 billionth time...
[updated Sun Oct 12 22:46:12 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 22:46
merritton
How many elections now have they promised a national child care program near the end of the election, I think it's like at least 6.
[updated Sun Oct 12 23:29:19 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 23:29
prg
Sigh... I sincerely apologise for getting testy above... But, that's the thing... I don't think I'm alone: I think there is a very real anger out there towards the Liberal Party. It comes from the litany of broken promises as well as that culture of entitlement which everyone is talking about. And the condescending attitude many Lib supporters have towards anyone on the left who chooses a party other than theirs. It *does* sometimes make people angry, and I think a lot of that anger is unfortunately legitimate...
Lib's ought to take notice, if they wish to rebuild and be an authentic "big tent" party...
[updated Mon Oct 13 03:01:07 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 03:01
Typical Liberal who is out of touch, and the head in the sand type attitude. What is it with you Liberals and NDPers trying to put our economy and policies in contrast with the American policies??? Canada is way different in everyway possible, but as I have seen throughout this campaign with the out of touch liberals and NDPers, desperate times call for foot in the mouth measures. Go grab a history book, and name just one policy that Canada has adopeted from the USA. Free trade isnt one of them. Good luck to this task, and remember, by Tuesday night into Wednesday am, the Liberals will be lucky if they get 60 seats.
[updated Mon Oct 13 00:55:02 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 00:55
Foxer
Well... our navy has boats. THEIR navy has boats. And they had boats before OUR navy did. And harper wanted to buy NEW boats. So, i guess that proves conclusively that harper is actually a bush clone, and that's only because the cpc couldn't figure out how to clone Hitler before he died. :)
(makes about as much sense as anything.)
[updated Mon Oct 13 01:31:29 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 01:31
suedo
Undecided is still way up there...
I wonder will they vote?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:04:48 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:04
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Just curious - how many conservatives hang out here?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:05:40 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:05
20 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Virginia Peartree
How accurate will the polling be?
The polling firms generally do a pretty good job on election forecasting, Nik especially, but I'm wondering if circumstances and trends now in play might make their task particularly challenging now, leading to surprises on election night. Three things:
First, and most important, there seems to be an extraordinary interest in strategic voting against the Tories. My guess is that someone who supports, for example, the NDP but is contemplating voting Liberal based on a more competitive candidate in their riding would probably tell the pollster they would support the NDP, but end up voting Liberal. For the NDP and Liberals the results would probably wash, although the regional allocation may end up a bit skewed. If there actually were a distortion I would expect the prairie NDP vote to exceed the polls at the expense of the Liberals, but in Ontario the Liberals would gain against the NDP. However, nation wide we would see the Green party getting lower vote totals than projected and the Liberals and NDP would both gain.
Second, increasing cell phone use has got to be making polling more challenging. I have two twenty something nephews, living on their own, and neither has ever had a landline and therefore will never get polled. And both of them will be voting. Maybe it doesn't matter in that the profile of exclusively cell phone users who vote is no different than the general public who vote, but I have my suspicions.
And finally, also related to phones, call display is now almost universal, and it must be making it more challenging for pollsters to get anyone to answer the phone. I know many people who now leave it to their answering machines to deal with phone calls unless they know who is calling. Again, perhaps this doesn't matter if the voting profile of this cohort is the same as the general public's, but I suspect it isn't.
Nik, I would really like to know your thoughts on this.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:15:36 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:15
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This election is no horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals or NDP, it`s a desparate race for second place, thats for sure.
As a given, most voters are resistant to wholesale government change, but in todays climate of foreboding, the drastic changes Dion and Layton are proposing don't quite add up, even with a calculator.
This perfect economic storm will compel voters to hold pat and dance with the one that brung them at the ballot box.
In light of the impending storm most pragmatic and concerned Canadians have started to batten down the hatches because nobody wants the ship to go down, nobody still breathing air, that is.
[updated Sun Oct 12 21:48:09 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 21:48
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Its nice to see that Canada is waking up after the turkey dinner and realizing that Layton and Dion are nothing but power hungry. Harper is at most dilligant in his platform and hasnt flip flopped like the Liberals. Layton has a platform that will spend us into oblivion. Nice to see the polls not so reactive to the stock market and more to the Parties platforms and leaders.
[updated Mon Oct 13 00:48:48 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 00:48
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I've met Dion twice, below is an exerpt from my letter to a friend:
"Letter to a friend: First hand impressions of Stéphane ~ Substance over style
Hi Joan,
Saw Stéphane and Michael Ignatieff in Stoney Creek again on Saturday Morning (27Sept) - have uploaded the You Tube of Michael's speech.
Unfortunately, Stéphane's speech was too big a file to upload here as we recorded it. CPAC has it, but you'll need to wade through Harper's speech too
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&pagetype=vod&lang=e&clipID=1959
Stéphane starts at 23:18 into the program - you might need to copy and paste the link. You can drag the scroll bar to 23:18 to save time (Watch for the press conference after the speech)
They were great speeches - Stéphane raised Income Trusts and that he would fix the mess of Harper & Flaherty's broken promise. He spoke of the need for infrastructure renewal, partnerships with municipalities, child care, seniors issues, manufacturing, the state of the economy, the Liberal record on solving the Federal Deficits, on youth sentencing and civility.
Spoke to Stéphane for about a minute or so, a long time given the press and number of people and timelines.
One, my impression is he is the genuine article, sincere, intelligent, strong and honourable with a firm and viable vision for this country. A person I have no problem supporting.
Second impression, I believe his hearing is far worse than even he believes it to be, for whenever I spoke his eyes would break from mine and he would read my lips before looking back into my eyes to answer. That easily explains his somewhat mangled English - he can't hear tonal inflections. He has a bit of a disability in hearing, tragically, because he really has a great message. A disability that, if he were in a wheelchair, no one would dare to mock him over. And remember, one of the greatest Presidents the US ever had was in a wheel chair (FDR).
Despite his difficulty with the english language, which is improving, his thinking and reasoning on his platform is sound and a lot of non Liberal Economists agree with him. He is the genuine article.
His first focus is on the economy and keeping it strong while harmonizing it with a lower energy consuming, more efficient and sustainable environmental plan.
This plan is far from radical and has been practiced by many Northern European Countries with success. There is so much disinformation planted by Tubby's gang of thugs. But the fact is, he is not reinventing the wheel - it is doable and necessary.
In fact Layton's Cap & Trade is exactly the kind of job destroying plan Dion is opposed to. Layton's soaking the Corps Tax plans - my god, what a disaster to employment that would be.
And what other leader would be so selfless as to share the stage and limelight at a rally with his past leadership rival Michael Ignatieff. And how well Stéphane and Michael work together to not upstage or outshine each other - this whole thing is a class act.
Michael's speech being shorter is on my You Tube tonight. It was the second time I met him in a week. Amazing person.
Had great conversations with Paddy Torsney (Burlington), former Mayor Larry Di Ianni (Hamilton East / Stoney Creek) and Tyler Banham (Hamilton Mtn) as well.
Touching story about Paddy that June witnessed: A developmentally challenged young man wanted June to take his picture with Stéphane as he was walking back from the press scrum on Saturday. June was already filming and was trying to figure out how to accommodate the request. Paddy, just ahead of Stéphane saw the situation and quickly interpreted it. Paddy looked at June, smiled, then took the camera from the disabled young man, pulled him beside Stéphane who stopped and put his arm around him and she stated clicking. What a sweetheart you have for a candidate in Paddy Torsney.
And what a great guy Stéphane was - he then spoke to him for a bit even though his timelines were so compressed by that time and his handlers were urging him on. And no, it was no cynical photo op - the press had moved to another location to catch his exit.
As I said before, he's the real thing.
ATB
John"
[updated Mon Oct 13 03:58:03 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 03:58
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
United Front - Ridiculous
To those who feel the non Conservative Parties should unite, particularly the Liberals & NDP the following points for your considerations:
From the Globe Comments: "Shades of Grey from Whitehorse, Canada writes: For those posters calling for the left to unite, the liberals of the recent past and the NDP have nothing in common. The Liberals have been (not so sure about Dion) the party of the centre, one of fiscal conservatism and social progressiveness. Layton is too busy making promises to think about where the money will come from."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My Comment:
Exactly the point - I don't see where the Liberals and NDP have a commonality. One is centre as you say, one is left, quite far left actually.
If one really wants Harper - vote for him
If one wants a centrist party with an excellent front bench - Vote Liberal
If one really wants a Tax & Spend socialist party without a single economist on their bench - vote NDP
If one wants the Greens - why vote Green ? Vote Liberal (who are fiscally moderate and socially progressive with much of what the Greens want for the environment)
.
[updated Mon Oct 13 05:25:49 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 05:25
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Canadians voters are apathetic and voter turnout will not grow, in fact it will be same or less than 2006. Less than 65% will mean trouble for the Liberal Party.
What does that mean? What are the big changes from 2006?
Assuming Nanos is as accurate again.
The gap is the same with 6% lead for the CPC.
The trend is up in the last week of the campaign by the CPC increasing in their support.
Compared to 2006
The CPC party is down 3% in popular vote.
The Liberal party is down 3% in popular vote
The NDP party is up in popular vote 5%
The Green party is up in popular 5%.
The Bloc is the same at 10% in Quebec.
The battleground ridings 45-70 where splits were close 2 way or 3 way races might yield some very interesting swings.
Each party that fails to energize its machine and bring out their base will have a very big problem.
The NDP with the best machine in getting support out has the biggest gain in support so they stand to make Tuesday very interesting in seat gains. (Ekos Polls support that)
Under Dion the once mighty liberal machine is again in "saving the furniture" mode and stand to lose the biggest number of seats.
The CPC have planned this next campaign for a long time and stand to gain some seats in close races in Ontario at the expense of Quebec.
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/10/daily-tracking-october-10-2008/
[updated Mon Oct 13 08:33:12 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 08:33
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On McCain's Negative Tone
http://www.theseventen.com/
I find the article very informative and reminds me of the Liberal Campaign. Agreed?
[updated Mon Oct 13 12:25:59 -0400 2008]
13 Oct 12:25
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