With two days left in the campaign the latest CPAC Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a six point lead over the Liberals nationally (33% to 27%). Support for the NDP, after trending up for a few days has held steady at twenty two percent nationally. In battleground Ontario the Tories and Liberals remain in a tight race with only two points separating them in our latest tracking (Conservatives - 34% ; Liberals - 32%) with the NDP trending up to one in four (26%) in the province.
On the CPAC Nanos Leadership Index Stephen Harper has bounced back from the declines earlier this week and now holds a 30 point lead on Stephane Dion, with Jack Layton a further one point back (Harper - 87; Dion - 57; Layton - 56). On the best PM front, Harper (30%) is ten points ahead of Layton (20%) with Dion close behind at 17%).
With Thanksgiving upon us, today will be our final day in the field prior to the election with our last set of tracking numbers released Monday at 2 pm.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,404 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.6%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,404 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research will be interviewing 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,500 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 10, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,161, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (+1)
- Liberal Party 27 (-1)
- NDP 22 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 9% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,404 MoE ± 2.6%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 6% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 87 (+2)
- Stephane Dion 57 (+9)
- Jack Layton 56 (-5)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
More excellent results for the CPC with these numbers. The Ontario lead is holdi... more
Darryl (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:00
Trend is for a widening gap between Libs and Cons. Two days to election lib mom... more
fortescue (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:09
Merde Time for the NDP & Greens to move their vote to the Liberal Camp We... more
John B (Ontario) 12 Oct 14:50
I have always been very clear that I feel very strongly that people should vote ... more
HC in AB (Alberta) 12 Oct 17:58
Hey Merde: If you want a carbon tax that badly, you can pay mine for me.... more
eveable (Ontario) 12 Oct 18:57
In fairness - i think layton has been pretty true to his platform. He's held the... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 13 Oct 01:40
Comments
Darryl
More excellent results for the CPC with these numbers. The Ontario lead is holding and the NDP is edging up on the liberals.
The latest liberal hidden agenda smear campaign isn't working so far.
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:00:30 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 14:00
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
The numbers aren't great for the cpc, but it's clear from the polls they're trending upwards. The ndp seems to be strong as well.
And that gives harper the momentum going into the ballot boxes. Traditionally, support can go up for the party with momentum by 2 or 3 points in the last few days. I've noticed the phrase 'finance minister bob rae' being kicked around on more forums and comment sections, i think people are genuinely worried about what dion would do. And it's pretty clear to a lot of folks from his question gaffe that he just doesn't have a plan - he intends to get elected then try to figure out a plan.
And that'll be the end of the hopes of the libs for actually winning this race, and they're going to lose seats. A lot of seats.
I think the cpc will go up a few seats, but i think the big winners here are going to be the bloc and the ndp. The bloc because they were in sorry shape and will have 'rediscovered' themselves, the ndp will likely have their best showing in history. Which means they don't need the libs to call an election in the future, and it won't be 'dion' who gets to 'choose', not that it was this time. Which is going to be very hard on dion because the other parties will build up their war chest pretty quick, while the libs will be unable to do so.
Bad news is that we're going to have an election again within the next 18 months, but that's minority gov'ts for you. But it won't be at the libs choosing, at least not exclusively.
This will be a severe blow for the libs. A lot of lost money from fewer votes, and a lot less seats at the table, which means it's harder to win those ridings next time.
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:15:19 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 14:15
Darryl
Yes the main gain is the Bloc and NDP and the big losers look to be the Liberals who will be in even worse shape money wise. If they can find a real leader though and can find enough people to donate money to them they could be a force to be reckoned with again in a couple of years.
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:57:23 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 15:57
Foxer
I think it'll take more than a couple of years - they weren't paying the bills going into this, they're now servicing about an 8 million dollar loan they took to fund the campaign, and they'll be getting LESS money from the gov't than they were used to.
They will have to significantly increase donations, and on top of it if they have a leadership convention they'll have to raise money for that.
I don't think they're going to do well with donations for at least a couple of years. It takes time. And then it'll be a while after that before they've built up enough to fight a campaign.
I think they're just going to have to go into the next campaign underfunded.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:09:29 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 16:09
If the trend continues and each party holds its base, the Bloc and NDP with a track record in getting votes out will stand to benefit the most. Agreed?
Many close ridings will change hands with the uptick. Will the NDP convert the gain in popular vote to seats at Liberal expense. How many?
The Conservative have 10 seats in Quebec how many will they hold against the Bloc around Quebec city?
"Stop Harper, ABC" has not united the left vote in the last week as polls predict a minority outcome and allow for voters to vote for their party.
Only the Liberals are asking the NDP and Greens to abandon their parties to prevent the Harper agenda. Will it work without the fear of a CPC majority?
2008 we have a global credit crisis instead of ADSCAM 2006 confronting the voters.
The number one issue for voters is the economy. Every poll indicates the Harper gov't has placed them well above the other parties in protecting Canada during this crisis. Agreed?
Gas prices down as commodities and stocks down, housing market is stable, IMF points to Canada best banking and leading G7, Jobs Rate good news in the last week.
If the ballot question is the economy who stands to benefit the most? Agreed?
[updated Mon Oct 13 11:00:26 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 11:00
Foxer
Hard to say about the bloc and ndp. The cpc could well actually get more new seats than they do. But - considering that any gain for the ndp is very positive for them, and that more voters for them means more money even if it doesn't translate into seats under our financing laws, it could be argued that even with less seat gain they're still the bigger beneficiary - likewise the bloc who'd been all but dead would be considered to be a 'winner' all things considered.
For the CPC it will be a victory, but a little bitter-sweet. They should have had a majority and they're not likely to get one. On the other hand - they will have increased their seat count, and the libs will be in severe political and financial distress for a long time to come. That will give the CPC an advantage in the next election and give harper more money (not that he needs it). So - a victory for the tories, but not quite so much as they'd have liked.
The ndp will gain at the liberals expesnse. At a guess tho, that will only translate into about 6 - 10 seats. Their popularity is still too diffused in most areas to give them more than that. Unless they get a bump in popluarity at the last minute, and there's not much indication that will happen.
the 'join us to stop harper' argument has failed. Every election that argument grows weaker, and without the fear of a majority there just is no appetite for it.
The CPC obviously stands to gain the most from the economic crisis.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:36:07 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:36
nfitz
Seems to be pointing to another minority Conservative government. Perhaps reduced somewhat given their decimation in Quebec.
But I'd hardly say excellent results. Unless you are of the Canada, go for the bronze philosphy!
[updated Sun Oct 12 15:03:06 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 15:03
Darryl
Well a CPC minority government is a helluva lot better than a liberal one :)
The trends are upward the last few days for the CPC as well so there should be even a great distance from the liberals by Tuesday.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:10:58 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 16:10
elizyum
ummm, its the CPC that destroyed its own chances for a majority, darryl. we should all thank them for creating the same parliament, and wasting millions of dollars for nothing.
[updated Sun Oct 12 17:34:02 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 17:34
Darryl
I don't think it was for nothing. If they win they'll have a new mandate and a more weakened liberal party who'll be looking for a new leader. They should be able to govern for 2+ more years now.
[updated Sun Oct 12 17:47:51 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 17:47
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The libs will not get a new leader and won't be broke..............next lie please.
[updated Mon Oct 13 11:37:26 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 11:37
Darryl
If the liberals lose the election (which all indications point to) - you really think Dion will not be forced out of the leadership? He is not a leader and many in the party have known this for a long time.
Are there hundreds of thousands of individuals out there that plan to donate $1000 (or whatever the limit it) to the liberals after this election? Without that how will the party get out of debt?
[updated Mon Oct 13 11:50:19 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 11:50
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Yes there are hundreds of 1000's of liberals who will contribute. They have have had to learn the fund raising game anew and they are going to be fine. As for Dion hes very credible and he will stay on. The next party convention is not until next spring and he's not going to quit before then.
[updated Mon Oct 13 13:28:59 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 13:28
Foxer
There aren't hundreds of thousands who will contribute. There are barely thousands, and they're giving closer to 200 bucks a peice, not 1000.
The liberals have been 'learning the fund raising game anew' for more than 6 years now - since the law came in. And they have failed dismally. As it stands, they will need to DOUBLE their fund raising just to break even again. And that will take at least 2- 3 years minimum under ideal conditions. In the mean time - they either go into deeper debt or severely cut back on their operations - which makes it much harder to raise funds.
Worse - they will lose almost a years worth of donations during a leadership race. Many of those who would donate will send their donations to the leadership candidates.
And of course - they're going to have to pay the cpc and harper 3.5 million dollars for the court case. That's almost an entire year's income there.
The libs are in such severe financial shape that it's impossible for them to recover before the next election. Heh - and if dion is kicked out of power - he's going to have to declare personal bankruptcy to pay off his own leadership debts.
[updated Mon Oct 13 15:42:20 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 15:42
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Well well the foxer expert has spoken once again. The same guy who argued continuously three weeks ago that the cons were going to win 150 seats is not an expert on Liberal party financing.
One thing you should know is that the party recently embarked on a new fund raising format and it has caught fire. the way parties now need to raise money will work wonders for the Libs once it kicks in. They don't have the big money that comes from wealthy right wing indviduals but they will get the middle class and plenty of them.
you're an expert at tory BS nothing more
[updated Tue Oct 14 05:37:36 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 05:37
Foxer
LOL - and gohabs the liberal liar has spoken once more :) I've said 144 seats, and i correct you every time. I think the problem is you're afraid they might actually GET 144 seats, so you try to up it in the hopes you can pretend i was wrong :) You said they'd get about 80 something seats - we'll see which of us is closer
One thing you should know is the party's new format didn't catch fire at all. In fact - according to the liberal in charge of it they had hoped they might BREAK EVEN on their expenses for the party next year if all went well. But it looks like the libs are going to lose between 20 - 25 percent of the money they get from the gov't (which is considerably more than they receive in donations). And liberals don't donate to 'losers' - and the liberal party will have lost badly this election. Probably the worst popular vote showing in history. So - even if their fundraising went as they expected they're STILL going to be badly in the hole, and i doubt it'll go as well as expected after this defeat.
Not to mention there'll be a leadership race. Which means that those who DO donate will be donating to candidates, not the party. And conventions usually are costly things themselves, renting the space etc etc.
At the rate the libs are bleeding, this could be the first liberal convention held at chuck e cheeze or dennys :)
The model you speak of is to take a small amount every month off of people's credit cards - 10 - 20 bucks or thereabouts - so that they put in 120 - 240 a year but it's not 'all at once' or painful. I'm sure it will work to a degree - that is exactly the same model the reform used when it started. The difference is reform was a grassroots movement and it's members were eager to participate. At the best of times that model takes a LOT of time to build up. It worked for the reform because they did it consistantly from day one over a period of years. The liberals aren't going to have years, and are bleeding supporters not adding them.
Liberals need big fat corporations and rich businessmen to make huge donations to stay afloat. And the law forbids them to do that anymore. That's why liberal fundraising is dead in the water.
[updated Tue Oct 14 13:24:20 EDT 2008]
14 Oct 13:24
It wont be same HOC. The Liberals will have broken leader. They are broke and will need a convention within the year and will be sitting down shortly.
Opposition will not try to pass bills against the CPC.
[updated Mon Oct 13 16:28:24 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 16:28
fortescue
Trend is for a widening gap between Libs and Cons. Two days to election lib momentum definately gone. Strong Canadian economic news combined with the dion Gaffe may be the turning point in this election. We will see Monday. Happy Thanksgiving
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:09:23 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 14:09
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike Stokes
it's the weekend and the CP are going up what, a change. Good to see Canadians are coming to their senses. 6 point spread could yield more seats for the CP as the Libs are below their 06 number.
Jack for opposition divide the left!
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:19:01 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 14:19
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Merde
Time for the NDP & Greens to move their vote to the Liberal Camp
We simply can't afford Steve 'Herbert Hoover' Harper Govt, minority or majority
Vote for a real Team
Vote Liberal
.
[updated Sun Oct 12 14:50:27 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 14:50
26 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Undecided is still way up there...
I wonder will they vote?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:04:48 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 16:04
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Just curious - how many conservatives hang out here?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:05:40 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 16:05
20 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Virginia Peartree
How accurate will the polling be?
The polling firms generally do a pretty good job on election forecasting, Nik especially, but I'm wondering if circumstances and trends now in play might make their task particularly challenging now, leading to surprises on election night. Three things:
First, and most important, there seems to be an extraordinary interest in strategic voting against the Tories. My guess is that someone who supports, for example, the NDP but is contemplating voting Liberal based on a more competitive candidate in their riding would probably tell the pollster they would support the NDP, but end up voting Liberal. For the NDP and Liberals the results would probably wash, although the regional allocation may end up a bit skewed. If there actually were a distortion I would expect the prairie NDP vote to exceed the polls at the expense of the Liberals, but in Ontario the Liberals would gain against the NDP. However, nation wide we would see the Green party getting lower vote totals than projected and the Liberals and NDP would both gain.
Second, increasing cell phone use has got to be making polling more challenging. I have two twenty something nephews, living on their own, and neither has ever had a landline and therefore will never get polled. And both of them will be voting. Maybe it doesn't matter in that the profile of exclusively cell phone users who vote is no different than the general public who vote, but I have my suspicions.
And finally, also related to phones, call display is now almost universal, and it must be making it more challenging for pollsters to get anyone to answer the phone. I know many people who now leave it to their answering machines to deal with phone calls unless they know who is calling. Again, perhaps this doesn't matter if the voting profile of this cohort is the same as the general public's, but I suspect it isn't.
Nik, I would really like to know your thoughts on this.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:15:36 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 16:15
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
This election is no horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals or NDP, it`s a desparate race for second place, thats for sure.
As a given, most voters are resistant to wholesale government change, but in todays climate of foreboding, the drastic changes Dion and Layton are proposing don't quite add up, even with a calculator.
This perfect economic storm will compel voters to hold pat and dance with the one that brung them at the ballot box.
In light of the impending storm most pragmatic and concerned Canadians have started to batten down the hatches because nobody wants the ship to go down, nobody still breathing air, that is.
[updated Sun Oct 12 21:48:09 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 21:48
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Its nice to see that Canada is waking up after the turkey dinner and realizing that Layton and Dion are nothing but power hungry. Harper is at most dilligant in his platform and hasnt flip flopped like the Liberals. Layton has a platform that will spend us into oblivion. Nice to see the polls not so reactive to the stock market and more to the Parties platforms and leaders.
[updated Mon Oct 13 00:48:48 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 00:48
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
I've met Dion twice, below is an exerpt from my letter to a friend:
"Letter to a friend: First hand impressions of Stéphane ~ Substance over style
Hi Joan,
Saw Stéphane and Michael Ignatieff in Stoney Creek again on Saturday Morning (27Sept) - have uploaded the You Tube of Michael's speech.
Unfortunately, Stéphane's speech was too big a file to upload here as we recorded it. CPAC has it, but you'll need to wade through Harper's speech too
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&pagetype=vod&lang=e&clipID=1959
Stéphane starts at 23:18 into the program - you might need to copy and paste the link. You can drag the scroll bar to 23:18 to save time (Watch for the press conference after the speech)
They were great speeches - Stéphane raised Income Trusts and that he would fix the mess of Harper & Flaherty's broken promise. He spoke of the need for infrastructure renewal, partnerships with municipalities, child care, seniors issues, manufacturing, the state of the economy, the Liberal record on solving the Federal Deficits, on youth sentencing and civility.
Spoke to Stéphane for about a minute or so, a long time given the press and number of people and timelines.
One, my impression is he is the genuine article, sincere, intelligent, strong and honourable with a firm and viable vision for this country. A person I have no problem supporting.
Second impression, I believe his hearing is far worse than even he believes it to be, for whenever I spoke his eyes would break from mine and he would read my lips before looking back into my eyes to answer. That easily explains his somewhat mangled English - he can't hear tonal inflections. He has a bit of a disability in hearing, tragically, because he really has a great message. A disability that, if he were in a wheelchair, no one would dare to mock him over. And remember, one of the greatest Presidents the US ever had was in a wheel chair (FDR).
Despite his difficulty with the english language, which is improving, his thinking and reasoning on his platform is sound and a lot of non Liberal Economists agree with him. He is the genuine article.
His first focus is on the economy and keeping it strong while harmonizing it with a lower energy consuming, more efficient and sustainable environmental plan.
This plan is far from radical and has been practiced by many Northern European Countries with success. There is so much disinformation planted by Tubby's gang of thugs. But the fact is, he is not reinventing the wheel - it is doable and necessary.
In fact Layton's Cap & Trade is exactly the kind of job destroying plan Dion is opposed to. Layton's soaking the Corps Tax plans - my god, what a disaster to employment that would be.
And what other leader would be so selfless as to share the stage and limelight at a rally with his past leadership rival Michael Ignatieff. And how well Stéphane and Michael work together to not upstage or outshine each other - this whole thing is a class act.
Michael's speech being shorter is on my You Tube tonight. It was the second time I met him in a week. Amazing person.
Had great conversations with Paddy Torsney (Burlington), former Mayor Larry Di Ianni (Hamilton East / Stoney Creek) and Tyler Banham (Hamilton Mtn) as well.
Touching story about Paddy that June witnessed: A developmentally challenged young man wanted June to take his picture with Stéphane as he was walking back from the press scrum on Saturday. June was already filming and was trying to figure out how to accommodate the request. Paddy, just ahead of Stéphane saw the situation and quickly interpreted it. Paddy looked at June, smiled, then took the camera from the disabled young man, pulled him beside Stéphane who stopped and put his arm around him and she stated clicking. What a sweetheart you have for a candidate in Paddy Torsney.
And what a great guy Stéphane was - he then spoke to him for a bit even though his timelines were so compressed by that time and his handlers were urging him on. And no, it was no cynical photo op - the press had moved to another location to catch his exit.
As I said before, he's the real thing.
ATB
John"
[updated Mon Oct 13 03:58:03 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 03:58
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
United Front - Ridiculous
To those who feel the non Conservative Parties should unite, particularly the Liberals & NDP the following points for your considerations:
From the Globe Comments: "Shades of Grey from Whitehorse, Canada writes: For those posters calling for the left to unite, the liberals of the recent past and the NDP have nothing in common. The Liberals have been (not so sure about Dion) the party of the centre, one of fiscal conservatism and social progressiveness. Layton is too busy making promises to think about where the money will come from."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My Comment:
Exactly the point - I don't see where the Liberals and NDP have a commonality. One is centre as you say, one is left, quite far left actually.
If one really wants Harper - vote for him
If one wants a centrist party with an excellent front bench - Vote Liberal
If one really wants a Tax & Spend socialist party without a single economist on their bench - vote NDP
If one wants the Greens - why vote Green ? Vote Liberal (who are fiscally moderate and socially progressive with much of what the Greens want for the environment)
.
[updated Mon Oct 13 05:25:49 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 05:25
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Canadians voters are apathetic and voter turnout will not grow, in fact it will be same or less than 2006. Less than 65% will mean trouble for the Liberal Party.
What does that mean? What are the big changes from 2006?
Assuming Nanos is as accurate again.
The gap is the same with 6% lead for the CPC.
The trend is up in the last week of the campaign by the CPC increasing in their support.
Compared to 2006
The CPC party is down 3% in popular vote.
The Liberal party is down 3% in popular vote
The NDP party is up in popular vote 5%
The Green party is up in popular 5%.
The Bloc is the same at 10% in Quebec.
The battleground ridings 45-70 where splits were close 2 way or 3 way races might yield some very interesting swings.
Each party that fails to energize its machine and bring out their base will have a very big problem.
The NDP with the best machine in getting support out has the biggest gain in support so they stand to make Tuesday very interesting in seat gains. (Ekos Polls support that)
Under Dion the once mighty liberal machine is again in "saving the furniture" mode and stand to lose the biggest number of seats.
The CPC have planned this next campaign for a long time and stand to gain some seats in close races in Ontario at the expense of Quebec.
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/10/daily-tracking-october-10-2008/
[updated Mon Oct 13 08:33:12 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 08:33
24 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
On McCain's Negative Tone
http://www.theseventen.com/
I find the article very informative and reminds me of the Liberal Campaign. Agreed?
[updated Mon Oct 13 12:25:59 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 12:25
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.