CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 11)

More excellent results for the CPC with these numbers. The Ontario lead is holding and the NDP is edging up on the liberals.

The latest liberal hidden agenda smear campaign isn't working so far.

[updated Sun Oct 12 14:00:30 EDT 2008]

Trend is for a widening gap between Libs and Cons. Two days to election lib momentum definately gone. Strong Canadian economic news combined with the dion Gaffe may be the turning point in this election. We will see Monday. Happy Thanksgiving

[updated Sun Oct 12 14:09:23 EDT 2008]

it's the weekend and the CP are going up what, a change. Good to see Canadians are coming to their senses. 6 point spread could yield more seats for the CP as the Libs are below their 06 number.

Jack for opposition divide the left!

[updated Sun Oct 12 14:19:01 EDT 2008]

Merde

Time for the NDP & Greens to move their vote to the Liberal Camp

We simply can't afford Steve 'Herbert Hoover' Harper Govt, minority or majority

Vote for a real Team

Vote Liberal

.

[updated Sun Oct 12 14:50:27 EDT 2008]

Undecided is still way up there...

I wonder will they vote?

[updated Sun Oct 12 16:04:48 EDT 2008]

Just curious - how many conservatives hang out here?

[updated Sun Oct 12 16:05:40 EDT 2008]

How accurate will the polling be?

The polling firms generally do a pretty good job on election forecasting, Nik especially, but I'm wondering if circumstances and trends now in play might make their task particularly challenging now, leading to surprises on election night. Three things:

First, and most important, there seems to be an extraordinary interest in strategic voting against the Tories. My guess is that someone who supports, for example, the NDP but is contemplating voting Liberal based on a more competitive candidate in their riding would probably tell the pollster they would support the NDP, but end up voting Liberal. For the NDP and Liberals the results would probably wash, although the regional allocation may end up a bit skewed. If there actually were a distortion I would expect the prairie NDP vote to exceed the polls at the expense of the Liberals, but in Ontario the Liberals would gain against the NDP. However, nation wide we would see the Green party getting lower vote totals than projected and the Liberals and NDP would both gain.

Second, increasing cell phone use has got to be making polling more challenging. I have two twenty something nephews, living on their own, and neither has ever had a landline and therefore will never get polled. And both of them will be voting. Maybe it doesn't matter in that the profile of exclusively cell phone users who vote is no different than the general public who vote, but I have my suspicions.

And finally, also related to phones, call display is now almost universal, and it must be making it more challenging for pollsters to get anyone to answer the phone. I know many people who now leave it to their answering machines to deal with phone calls unless they know who is calling. Again, perhaps this doesn't matter if the voting profile of this cohort is the same as the general public's, but I suspect it isn't.

Nik, I would really like to know your thoughts on this.

[updated Sun Oct 12 16:15:36 EDT 2008]

This election is no horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals or NDP, it`s a desparate race for second place, thats for sure.

As a given, most voters are resistant to wholesale government change, but in todays climate of foreboding, the drastic changes Dion and Layton are proposing don't quite add up, even with a calculator.

This perfect economic storm will compel voters to hold pat and dance with the one that brung them at the ballot box.

In light of the impending storm most pragmatic and concerned Canadians have started to batten down the hatches because nobody wants the ship to go down, nobody still breathing air, that is.

[updated Sun Oct 12 21:48:09 EDT 2008]

Its nice to see that Canada is waking up after the turkey dinner and realizing that Layton and Dion are nothing but power hungry. Harper is at most dilligant in his platform and hasnt flip flopped like the Liberals. Layton has a platform that will spend us into oblivion. Nice to see the polls not so reactive to the stock market and more to the Parties platforms and leaders.

[updated Mon Oct 13 00:48:48 EDT 2008]

I've met Dion twice, below is an exerpt from my letter to a friend:

"Letter to a friend: First hand impressions of Stéphane ~ Substance over style

Hi Joan,

Saw Stéphane and Michael Ignatieff in Stoney Creek again on Saturday Morning (27Sept) - have uploaded the You Tube of Michael's speech.

Unfortunately, Stéphane's speech was too big a file to upload here as we recorded it. CPAC has it, but you'll need to wade through Harper's speech too

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&pagetype=vod&lang=e&clipID=1959

Stéphane starts at 23:18 into the program - you might need to copy and paste the link. You can drag the scroll bar to 23:18 to save time (Watch for the press conference after the speech)

They were great speeches - Stéphane raised Income Trusts and that he would fix the mess of Harper & Flaherty's broken promise. He spoke of the need for infrastructure renewal, partnerships with municipalities, child care, seniors issues, manufacturing, the state of the economy, the Liberal record on solving the Federal Deficits, on youth sentencing and civility.

Spoke to Stéphane for about a minute or so, a long time given the press and number of people and timelines.

One, my impression is he is the genuine article, sincere, intelligent, strong and honourable with a firm and viable vision for this country. A person I have no problem supporting.

Second impression, I believe his hearing is far worse than even he believes it to be, for whenever I spoke his eyes would break from mine and he would read my lips before looking back into my eyes to answer. That easily explains his somewhat mangled English - he can't hear tonal inflections. He has a bit of a disability in hearing, tragically, because he really has a great message. A disability that, if he were in a wheelchair, no one would dare to mock him over. And remember, one of the greatest Presidents the US ever had was in a wheel chair (FDR).

Despite his difficulty with the english language, which is improving, his thinking and reasoning on his platform is sound and a lot of non Liberal Economists agree with him. He is the genuine article.

His first focus is on the economy and keeping it strong while harmonizing it with a lower energy consuming, more efficient and sustainable environmental plan.

This plan is far from radical and has been practiced by many Northern European Countries with success. There is so much disinformation planted by Tubby's gang of thugs. But the fact is, he is not reinventing the wheel - it is doable and necessary.

In fact Layton's Cap & Trade is exactly the kind of job destroying plan Dion is opposed to. Layton's soaking the Corps Tax plans - my god, what a disaster to employment that would be.

And what other leader would be so selfless as to share the stage and limelight at a rally with his past leadership rival Michael Ignatieff. And how well Stéphane and Michael work together to not upstage or outshine each other - this whole thing is a class act.

Michael's speech being shorter is on my You Tube tonight. It was the second time I met him in a week. Amazing person.

Had great conversations with Paddy Torsney (Burlington), former Mayor Larry Di Ianni (Hamilton East / Stoney Creek) and Tyler Banham (Hamilton Mtn) as well.

Touching story about Paddy that June witnessed: A developmentally challenged young man wanted June to take his picture with Stéphane as he was walking back from the press scrum on Saturday. June was already filming and was trying to figure out how to accommodate the request. Paddy, just ahead of Stéphane saw the situation and quickly interpreted it. Paddy looked at June, smiled, then took the camera from the disabled young man, pulled him beside Stéphane who stopped and put his arm around him and she stated clicking. What a sweetheart you have for a candidate in Paddy Torsney.

And what a great guy Stéphane was - he then spoke to him for a bit even though his timelines were so compressed by that time and his handlers were urging him on. And no, it was no cynical photo op - the press had moved to another location to catch his exit.

As I said before, he's the real thing.

ATB

John"

[updated Mon Oct 13 03:58:03 EDT 2008]

United Front - Ridiculous

To those who feel the non Conservative Parties should unite, particularly the Liberals & NDP the following points for your considerations:

From the Globe Comments: "Shades of Grey from Whitehorse, Canada writes: For those posters calling for the left to unite, the liberals of the recent past and the NDP have nothing in common. The Liberals have been (not so sure about Dion) the party of the centre, one of fiscal conservatism and social progressiveness. Layton is too busy making promises to think about where the money will come from."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Comment:

Exactly the point - I don't see where the Liberals and NDP have a commonality. One is centre as you say, one is left, quite far left actually.

If one really wants Harper - vote for him

If one wants a centrist party with an excellent front bench - Vote Liberal

If one really wants a Tax & Spend socialist party without a single economist on their bench - vote NDP

If one wants the Greens - why vote Green ? Vote Liberal (who are fiscally moderate and socially progressive with much of what the Greens want for the environment)

.

[updated Mon Oct 13 05:25:49 EDT 2008]

Canadians voters are apathetic and voter turnout will not grow, in fact it will be same or less than 2006. Less than 65% will mean trouble for the Liberal Party.

What does that mean? What are the big changes from 2006?
Assuming Nanos is as accurate again.
The gap is the same with 6% lead for the CPC.
The trend is up in the last week of the campaign by the CPC increasing in their support.

Compared to 2006

The CPC party is down 3% in popular vote.
The Liberal party is down 3% in popular vote
The NDP party is up in popular vote 5%
The Green party is up in popular 5%.
The Bloc is the same at 10% in Quebec.

The battleground ridings 45-70 where splits were close 2 way or 3 way races might yield some very interesting swings.

Each party that fails to energize its machine and bring out their base will have a very big problem.
The NDP with the best machine in getting support out has the biggest gain in support so they stand to make Tuesday very interesting in seat gains. (Ekos Polls support that)
Under Dion the once mighty liberal machine is again in "saving the furniture" mode and stand to lose the biggest number of seats.
The CPC have planned this next campaign for a long time and stand to gain some seats in close races in Ontario at the expense of Quebec.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/10/daily-tracking-october-10-2008/

[updated Mon Oct 13 08:33:12 EDT 2008]

On McCain's Negative Tone
http://www.theseventen.com/

I find the article very informative and reminds me of the Liberal Campaign. Agreed?

[updated Mon Oct 13 12:25:59 EDT 2008]