CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 32, LP 28, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 10)

Hmmm... The weekend slump for the CPC again. I bet they're glad the election is on a Tuesday :)

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:02:21 EDT 2008]

This is going right to the wire and the undecideds are going to make or break it for many seats.

The strategic voting patterns also won't kick in until after the polling stops and so we won't know the results until Tuesday night.

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:02 EDT 2008]

The NDP and green numbers have stalled nationally and this could indicate the strategic shift is starting. I can now see a two to three point shift up in the Libs fortunes and the cons will likely go down a little because of their continued weak numbers in Quebec and a hoped for flattening out in out in southern Ontario

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:14:24 EDT 2008]

I am very confused as to what Canadians want in a Prime Minister.

Far too often all I heard about politicians was that "they say anything to get elected" or "they're all just so fake".

But now we have a PM who is an admitted policy honk, he shows how much thought he puts into policy, he understands how things work, and he does what is best for the country in the long run. Yet now Canadian's main criticism of Harper is that he "doesn't show a lot of compassion" during this downturn.

Personally, I would rather have a PM that knew when and when not to take action and knew what he can and cannot do; rather than someone who cried on cue. And we have a PM like that. Recall in Harper's Christmas interviews how many times he forcast the downturn in the economy and outlined the steps he took to limit the hit. And note that this is happening all around the world. It is very ignorant to think that any one political party can reverse the hit in the middle of the crisis.

But it seems that is what Canadians want and think it is possible. It's not possible. Why else does Dion's approvals get somewhat higher while Harper's decreases. All Stephane Dion does is whine about "seniors losing their pensions" (I have never seen a more blatent cry for votes there) and then look like he is going to cry (especially during the debates). And Canadian's eat it up.

The PM notes the strengths in the Canadian economy, which are proven internationally, and he is vilified. It is an embarrassment that the Canadian people are this ignorant and act this way.

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:21:11 EDT 2008]

Since Harper is now running completely on his own and his personal numbers are sinking I see a potential big hit to the cons come Eday. In any event it won't be decided until late in the evening BC time.

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:30:27 EDT 2008]

A 9 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in the Atlantic in one day? Funny..

With people in a bad mood as a result of losing so much of their savings in the markets this month (including me), It's amazing if the Conservatives can put together a minority. Whether the market has a big day up or down day or Tuesday could literally swing the results 1-2 percent.

This is what I see happening right now, from East to west:
- The Liberals will sweep Newfoundland and PEI, with the exception of one NDP in NFLD.
- The Conservatives will lose a seat in NS, not including Bill Casey being re-elected. This could be offset by a gain of one in NB
- In Quebec, the Bloc will pick up seats from both the Conservatives and the Liberals. The NDP will hold their 1 seat. Andre Arthur will be re-elected as an independent.

- In Ontario, the Conservatives are where they were last election, but the Liberals are down. The CPC will pick up seats in the 519/905 area codes in ridings like Brant, Haldiman Norfolk, and possible in ridings like Halton, Oakville and Newmarket-Aurora. With the NDP will pick up seats in the North. Some Liberals, like Gerrard Kennedy, will probably hold on to win with these numbers. Net effect - Conservatives and NDP up, Liberals down.

Manitoba: 2 of the 3 Liberal ridings are in play. I'll split the difference and say it will go CPC 9(+1), NDP 3, Lib 2 (-1)

39 Conservative Seats in Saskatchewan/Alberta. Goodale holds Wascana for the Liberals. No NDP.

BC: I'm going to say will gain between 1 and 4 seats, and the NDP might take 1 or 2 extra, but I doubt it. The Liberals could be reduced to as few as 3 seats in Vancouver, but if their numbers from earlier this week hold they'll take 5-7.

The net result?
Conservatives - somewhere between 130 and 140
Liberals - between 80 and 90
Bloc - around 50
NDP - 30 to 35.
2 Independents.

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:50:38 EDT 2008]

Conservatives seen winning election....

The Liberals have run a poor campaign, promising to introduce a carbon tax to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost spending on anti-poverty programs.

The measure, to be twinned with cuts in corporate and income taxes, is designed to be revenue-neutral. Harper says the idea is a disaster and Liberal leader Stephane Dion -- whose native language is French -- has had difficulty explaining his complex proposals.

The Liberals are heading for their worst performance since 1984, when they captured just 40 seats. They now have 97.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/081011/canada/canada_us_politics_canada

[updated Sat Oct 11 16:49:10 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik

It is an extremely tight race and completely baffling to anyone who follows politics with even a little bit of interest.

The leader of the Conservative party perjured himself while under cross-examination, he stated under oath about his knowledge of the million dollar bribe:
"What I do know is that this answer is not the answer to this question, I think there's been some editing in this question, so I don't think it goes from this question to this answer."
There is doubt about it, the tape is very clear and the expert hired by Steven Harper concluded that the tape had not been edited or altered in any way during that section of the tape. Although the conservatives are still leading in the poles, I predict Canadians will grasp the serious nature of the offence and vote him and his thugs out of office.

Harper is not fit to hold public office, let alone be “Our Prime Minister”

[updated Sat Oct 11 18:50:18 EDT 2008]

Canada is one step closer to finding the PC party again. This is the reforms last kick.

[updated Sat Oct 11 19:58:21 EDT 2008]

Some time after Nik's results are posted on Monday at 2 PM. I would love to see every one post their predictions on the results of the election. The contest he is running is based on the percentage of votes each party will get. No seat projections please. Do we have the courage to create a verifiable proof of our ability in forecasting what will happen. According to Ipsos Reid we can expect voter turn out to be between 70 and 90 % . Since there are only 308 seats too many could figure out how many each party will get but if we go with percentage to one decimal place the possibilities are huge and ties almost impossible. Let's see if we can have a little fun after all this one upmanship for the past month.

[updated Sat Oct 11 20:25:29 EDT 2008]

The TO Star is now reporting that the cons are on the verge of a majority government:

Scary if its pollster is accurate.

[updated Sat Oct 11 20:28:32 EDT 2008]

The national numbers are within the margin of error - I don't think anyone should feel confident.

[updated Sat Oct 11 20:41:54 EDT 2008]

I'm joining late, but I don't see any mention of the Bruce Koenig report and don't have time to go through all the threads. Have you been discussing it?

[updated Sun Oct 12 00:08:00 EDT 2008]

Harper says he'll quit if he doesn't win

Now that wouldn't be another lie would it ?

Lets find out

Fire Tubby

.

[updated Sun Oct 12 02:20:52 EDT 2008]

A vote for the NDP is a vote for Steve Harper

NDP = No Down Payment ...

errily subprime asset baked paper sounding

Honest Stephane or Slippery Steve

The choice is clear

Volunteer, donate, Vote

We really can't afford Harper

.

[updated Sun Oct 12 03:54:03 EDT 2008]

CVs: Dare to compare

The Honourable John McCallum PhD, PC, MP Liberal Member for Markham—Unionville

Bachelor of Arts Queens' College, Cambridge University,

a diplôme d'études supérieures from Université de Paris

Doctorate in economics from McGill University.

He was a professor of economics at the University of Manitoba from 1976 until 1978, Simon Fraser University from 1978 until 1982, Université du Québec à Montréal from 1982 until 1987, and McGill University from 1987 until 1994. He is an honourary member of the Royal Military College of Canada student #S139.

Dean of the Faculty of Arts at McGill University.

Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of the Royal Bank of Canada.

While the Cons offer:
Steve Harper - MA in economics and was a lecturer, not a professor

Flaherty, a lawyer specializing in accident claims (aka ambulance chaser)

Lets end the Harper/Flaherty accident before Canada becomes the next claim.

Don't be fooled, Harper is not the best to govern in troubled times

Dion has a Team

.

[updated Sun Oct 12 04:28:48 EDT 2008]

Liberal desperation rearing its ugly head. The sky is falling!

Liberal partisans spamming themselves with multiple accounts.

ROFL

[updated Sun Oct 12 06:32:03 EDT 2008]

My prediction is on election day, liberal support will move up again to around 30%, and hold back the conservatives.

We need another minority government during these economic times. The last thing we need in Ontario is a majority government with an ideology basically the same as the republicans in the USA..

I think the wisdom of the crowds will vote for a minority government. It is the best thing for you as Canadians; whether you are a conservative, liberal, NDP etc....

[updated Sun Oct 12 08:59:10 EDT 2008]

WHERE THEY ARE TODAY

Harper: Saint-Tite, Quebec City (Bloc/CPC battleground ridings)

Dion: Toronto, Norwood, Ottawa (Saving furniture again!)

Layton: Windsor, Essex, London, St. Thomas, Welland, Thorold, Hamilton, Guelph (battleground and Liberal/CPC seats!!!!)

Duceppe: Charlesbourg, Quebec City, Lévis (CPC battleground ridings)

May: New Glasgow, Westville, N.S. (trying to come in 2nd, NDP beats her)
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/516262
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[updated Sun Oct 12 10:05:06 EDT 2008]

Nabobs of negativity blathering ad hominum "True facts" spoken by pipsqueak panders of puerile neo-conservatism

That is what Harper offers Canada

Why are we not comforted

Vote for leadership. Vote for a leader

Vote for a real Team

End Canada's nightmare

Vote Liberal.

Change for the better - building partnerships, not fattening partners

,

[updated Sun Oct 12 10:50:40 EDT 2008]

Endorsements:

CPC

Globe & Mail
National Post
The Economist
Montreal Gazette
Ottawa Citizen
Winnipeg Free Press
Edmonton Journal
Calgary Herald
Windsor Star

Liberal

Toronto Star

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2008/10/media-endorsements/

[updated Sun Oct 12 11:04:20 EDT 2008]

Dion won't step down if he loses
Canwest News Service
Published: 43 minutes ago
TORONTO -- Declaring he is "not a quitter," Stephane Dion indicated Sunday he will not step down as Liberal leader if he loses the election.

He was asked in a CP24 TV interview about Prime Minister Stephen Harper's comment that the Conservatives would look for a new leader if he is defeated.

"Well he's a quitter; I'm not," Dion replied.

***Dion was in a feisty mood as he set off on two days of last-ditch campaigning that will take him to three Ontario ridings Sunday and from the Atlantic to the Pacific on Monday.

"I'm in a situation to beat Harper," Dion claimed.

He made a pitch to New Democatic Party supporters to cast their ballots for the Liberals, saying "a vote for (Jack) Layton is a vote for Harper."

Responding to three friendly callers to the show, Dion vigorously defended his Green Shift plan to impose a tax on diesel and other fossil fuels and distribute the revenues in income tax cuts.

When asked what he has to be thankful for on Thanksgiving, Dion said his country, wife Janine Krieber and daughter Jeanne.

"I'm married to my wife and my country and she's nice enough, kind enough, to accept it," he added.

Asked again later at a news conference if he would step down if the Liberals lose, he replied: "I will never quit.

"I will stay for my country. But I am working hard now. We are working for a victory. For a progressive government. This is what is at stake."

Asked if he has told the Liberal party he intends to stay if defeated, Dion replied:
"I am the leader. I am the leader. And I am working to win. I am not a quitter."

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Anyone see Rae getting his leadership signs back out of storage?

[updated Sun Oct 12 11:43:22 EDT 2008]

My question of the day is, where will the leaders be in six months? Three seem pretty solid, but as Harper says, the two top parties might be facing a review depending on the results.
Current prediction sites have the Conservatives either just above or just below their seat count from 2006. Neither result is likely to enhance Harper's job security. Although some insiders say that he called the election because he knew that rough times were coming, that's just another way of saying that his party's position would only get worse as time went on. If I were a Conservative supporter, I'd be mighty pissed off if all my efforts for my party resulted in a return to the status quo, especially with some of the storm clouds on the horizon: the possiblity of a deficit, the Cadman lawsuit appearing to be on the point of collapse, and the in-and-out scandal simmering. With a majority, the party could hope to weather the storm, but a slim minority means that all bets are off. Since the ballot question this time seems to be Harper, the party would need a serious brand change to improve their fortunes.
I would say that Harper needs to come very close to a majority to save his job: something in the order of 145 seats plus.
Dion, on the other hand, has enhanced his job prospects throughout the campaign. After running neck-and-neck with None of the Above in the leadership catergories in the early Nanos polls, he is jockeying with Layton as the leader most Canadians would prefer over Harper. Recent polls show that a majority of Canadians want a new Prime Minister, but they are undecided as to who they would like that person to be.
For Dion, it also comes down to seat counts, except that he does not have to win the most seats to keep his job. My sense is that if he comes close to Harper, that will be enough. I think he could even lose a few seats compared to 2006 and still keep his job: a 115 to 95 seat split between the libs and the tories might be enough. All he needs to do is show that he's in striking distance, because if we have another Harper-Dion election soon, Dion is likely to win. The only scenario where coming close will not secure his job is if Layton also comes close. If Layton wins over 50 seats, and is fewer than five points behind Dion in the popular vote, Layton will start to look like a potential Prime Minister. That would start Layton-Dion comparisons, and I'm not sure who would come out on top in that scenario.
Cheers, everyone. Don't forget to go out and vote.

[updated Mon Oct 13 14:01:15 EDT 2008]