As we enter the last weekend of the campaign,the Conservatives and the Liberals continue to be gripped in a close race. Of note, the Conservatives have been trending up in the last two nights in battleground Ontario. The Bloc retain a commanding lead in Quebec (22 points) while the Conservatives lead by 20 points in the West. Fluctuations continue to take place in Atlantic Canada where as of last evening the Liberals lead.
Stephen Harper’s downward slide on the best Prime Minister front continues and he is now at 29% (his lowest rating in the campaign thus far), although still ahead of Jack Layton by eight points.
We will be polling on Saturday and Sunday with our final election tracking poll released on Monday at 2 pm.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tomorrow night at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 500 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,301 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.7%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,301 random interviews.
Note: for the final three days of the tracking Nanos Research will be interviewing 500 eligible voters per evening (up from 400 per evening). As a result the margin of accuracy for the final three-day rolling sample of 1,500 eligible voters will be ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 9, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,071, MoE ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 32 (-1)
- Liberal Party 28 (+1)
- NDP 22 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (NC)
- Undecided 18% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,301 MoE ± 2.7%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 29% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (-1)
- None of them 8% (NC)
- Unsure 16% (+1)
*Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 85 (+9)
- Jack Layton 61 (-2)
- Stephane Dion 48 (-2)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-6)
- Gilles Duceppe 11 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
The NDP and green numbers have stalled nationally and this could indicate the st... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 11 Oct 14:14
Hmmm... The weekend slump for the CPC again. I bet they're glad the election is ... more
Darryl (Ontario) 11 Oct 14:02
Gaining 3 points in Ontario (and 4 versus the liberals) and 1 in Atlantic Canada... more
Darryl (Ontario) 11 Oct 14:04
Some time after Nik's results are posted on Monday at 2 PM. I would love to see ... more
larryl (Ontario) 11 Oct 20:25
Harper named a conservative bagman as commissioner of the R.C.M.P. First time in... more
Mike (Québec) 11 Oct 21:24
I have no political affiliation. From a NL perspective there is absolutely no re... more
suedo (Newfoundland and Labrador) 11 Oct 21:26
Comments
Darryl
Hmmm... The weekend slump for the CPC again. I bet they're glad the election is on a Tuesday :)
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:02:21 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:02
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
This is going right to the wire and the undecideds are going to make or break it for many seats.
The strategic voting patterns also won't kick in until after the polling stops and so we won't know the results until Tuesday night.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:02 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:10
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The NDP and green numbers have stalled nationally and this could indicate the strategic shift is starting. I can now see a two to three point shift up in the Libs fortunes and the cons will likely go down a little because of their continued weak numbers in Quebec and a hoped for flattening out in out in southern Ontario
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:14:24 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:14
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
I am very confused as to what Canadians want in a Prime Minister.
Far too often all I heard about politicians was that "they say anything to get elected" or "they're all just so fake".
But now we have a PM who is an admitted policy honk, he shows how much thought he puts into policy, he understands how things work, and he does what is best for the country in the long run. Yet now Canadian's main criticism of Harper is that he "doesn't show a lot of compassion" during this downturn.
Personally, I would rather have a PM that knew when and when not to take action and knew what he can and cannot do; rather than someone who cried on cue. And we have a PM like that. Recall in Harper's Christmas interviews how many times he forcast the downturn in the economy and outlined the steps he took to limit the hit. And note that this is happening all around the world. It is very ignorant to think that any one political party can reverse the hit in the middle of the crisis.
But it seems that is what Canadians want and think it is possible. It's not possible. Why else does Dion's approvals get somewhat higher while Harper's decreases. All Stephane Dion does is whine about "seniors losing their pensions" (I have never seen a more blatent cry for votes there) and then look like he is going to cry (especially during the debates). And Canadian's eat it up.
The PM notes the strengths in the Canadian economy, which are proven internationally, and he is vilified. It is an embarrassment that the Canadian people are this ignorant and act this way.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:21:11 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:21
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Since Harper is now running completely on his own and his personal numbers are sinking I see a potential big hit to the cons come Eday. In any event it won't be decided until late in the evening BC time.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:30:27 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:30
12 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
A 9 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in the Atlantic in one day? Funny..
With people in a bad mood as a result of losing so much of their savings in the markets this month (including me), It's amazing if the Conservatives can put together a minority. Whether the market has a big day up or down day or Tuesday could literally swing the results 1-2 percent.
This is what I see happening right now, from East to west:
- The Liberals will sweep Newfoundland and PEI, with the exception of one NDP in NFLD.
- The Conservatives will lose a seat in NS, not including Bill Casey being re-elected. This could be offset by a gain of one in NB
- In Quebec, the Bloc will pick up seats from both the Conservatives and the Liberals. The NDP will hold their 1 seat. Andre Arthur will be re-elected as an independent.
- In Ontario, the Conservatives are where they were last election, but the Liberals are down. The CPC will pick up seats in the 519/905 area codes in ridings like Brant, Haldiman Norfolk, and possible in ridings like Halton, Oakville and Newmarket-Aurora. With the NDP will pick up seats in the North. Some Liberals, like Gerrard Kennedy, will probably hold on to win with these numbers. Net effect - Conservatives and NDP up, Liberals down.
Manitoba: 2 of the 3 Liberal ridings are in play. I'll split the difference and say it will go CPC 9(+1), NDP 3, Lib 2 (-1)
39 Conservative Seats in Saskatchewan/Alberta. Goodale holds Wascana for the Liberals. No NDP.
BC: I'm going to say will gain between 1 and 4 seats, and the NDP might take 1 or 2 extra, but I doubt it. The Liberals could be reduced to as few as 3 seats in Vancouver, but if their numbers from earlier this week hold they'll take 5-7.
The net result?
Conservatives - somewhere between 130 and 140
Liberals - between 80 and 90
Bloc - around 50
NDP - 30 to 35.
2 Independents.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:50:38 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:50
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Conservatives seen winning election....
The Liberals have run a poor campaign, promising to introduce a carbon tax to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost spending on anti-poverty programs.
The measure, to be twinned with cuts in corporate and income taxes, is designed to be revenue-neutral. Harper says the idea is a disaster and Liberal leader Stephane Dion -- whose native language is French -- has had difficulty explaining his complex proposals.
The Liberals are heading for their worst performance since 1984, when they captured just 40 seats. They now have 97.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/081011/canada/canada_us_politics_canada
[updated Sat Oct 11 16:49:10 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 16:49
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike
Hi Nik
It is an extremely tight race and completely baffling to anyone who follows politics with even a little bit of interest.
The leader of the Conservative party perjured himself while under cross-examination, he stated under oath about his knowledge of the million dollar bribe:
"What I do know is that this answer is not the answer to this question, I think there's been some editing in this question, so I don't think it goes from this question to this answer."
There is doubt about it, the tape is very clear and the expert hired by Steven Harper concluded that the tape had not been edited or altered in any way during that section of the tape. Although the conservatives are still leading in the poles, I predict Canadians will grasp the serious nature of the offence and vote him and his thugs out of office.
Harper is not fit to hold public office, let alone be “Our Prime Minister”
[updated Sat Oct 11 18:50:18 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 18:50
58 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Craig
Partisanship aside, how does that constitute perjuring himself?
The prime minister testified that he had only been told that financial considerations have been promised. This notion that the tape was unaltered does not contradict that.
Where is the lie? Can you prove otherwise?
The facts still exist that there is no evidence of the, in my opinion ridiculous, claim that anyone can simply offer a huge life insurance benefit. Originally an expert said the tape by the author was faked which caused the Liberals to commit libel and call the prime minister a liar. Now experts say the tape is not faked but that still does not give the opposition the right to commit defamation.
You are making the same libelous claims that started this defamation suit. You cannot go around printing that someone lied or perjured themselves when you have no proof.
[updated Sat Oct 11 19:45:24 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 19:45
Mike
The proof is in the comment; he swore under oath that the answer he gave on the tape was for a different question. That is a lie, under oath that is called perjury. It is also an admission he knew a bribe was being offered, he just did not know the details.
That my friend is only legal in places like Columbia where Harper pushed so hard to get a free trade deal.
Harper is not fit to hold public office.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:10:10 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:10
Hi Mike,
Your comment shows you may have some interest in politics and you have already decided your vote. Your comment also suggest's you really don't know much about politics or law and you rely on commentary from leftest pundents.
If what you are saying were to be true; which it is not, all of Chretien's Liberals should be jailed for the sponsership scandal and the bloc tried for treason.
Regards
[updated Sat Oct 11 19:47:07 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 19:47
Mike
Hi novadog
You are correct; I do not know very much about politics, I only got involved in the summer of 2006, after Harper and his thugs took power. However, I recognize a lie when I hear it.
Harper is lying to the Canadian people just listen to the tape. If you do not believe Harpers own voice, you should believe Chuck Cadman’s widow and daughter.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:17:25 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:17
Hello again Mike,
Sir John A Macdonald was the first Prime Minister of Canada, he was charged in taking bribes to award contracts for the construction of the railway. The Pacific Scandal broke and Macdonald was forced to resign on November 5th, 1873. He later was elected Prime Minister again.
He won praise for having helped forge a nation of sprawling geographic size, with two diverse European colonial origins, and a multiplicity of cultural backgrounds and political views.
Sir John A Macdonald's picture is on the Canadian Ten Dollar Bill today.
I hope you can give Harper a chance, he also may do great things for our dominion.
Best rgrds
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:44:02 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:44
Mike
Hi novadog,
Sorry but I find Harper too dangerous to take a chance on. I fear his intentions for my country. Comparing Harper to Sir John is a little over the top don't you thnk?
I sincerely believe Harper is not fit to hold public office.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:15:39 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 23:15
Harper is growing into the job
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
".... Mr. Harper has governed moderately and competently for nearly three years. He has not taken the country in dangerous new directions or significantly eroded the capacity of the government to act, when necessary, in the public interest. He has been side-swiped, at least on the emotional level, by an international economic crisis of epic proportions. But he has gotten the big things right."
"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not.
If you want to meet the most inflexible head of a major political party, Mr. Dion takes it in a cakewalk. He's had a relatively strong week to be sure, but has never been much inclined to make the kind of mid-course corrections required in uncharted waters. He is a priest not a proselytizer, better at righteousness than salesmanship. The Green Shift has been an electoral disaster not because a carbon tax/income tax swap is a bad idea, but because his proposal is ill-timed, ill-considered (why mix an anti-poverty initiative into a tax on greenhouse gas emissions?) and ill-presented. You cannot be a leader without creating followers and Mr. Dion has failed to attract followers to his signature policy."
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:22:00 EDT 2008]
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:56:12 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 20:56
Mike
If I use your logic, Adolf Hitler was a great leader
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:19:48 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:19
Again typical rant from the extremist in the Liberal Party.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:25:20 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:25
Mike
Not rant at all, Fact:
Adolph succeeded in convincing his people that his ideology was the way to go; according to your logic leading is all-important, the destination does not matter.
Where do you think Harper wants to take this country?
Look south of the border and you will know where we are headed, 8 years of Harper like rule has brought the mighty U.S.A to it's economic knees.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:53:31 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:53
Only a child with knowledge of history would use a name as freely as you do in comparing him to our PM.
Again a fanatic or a child uses a name of a genocidal murderer comparing it to our PM.
I feel sorry for you.
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:07:14 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 22:07
Craig
Points 1-5 in the Liberal slander handbook:
1. Invoke Hitler
2. Talk about children
3. Talk about seniors
4. Look sad
5. Say you're what Canadians REALLY want
I'm surprised you haven't read that yet. :)
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:14:38 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 23:14
Mike
I used the comparison to demonstrate the direction a leader takes the country is more important than the leader himself. I used the name to underline a point. I must apologize, that was not a worthy argument, and in bad taste.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:47:53 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 23:47
Agreed. They wont defend their track record. They wont refute any points.
They stir fear and dissent into every election.
[updated Sun Oct 12 00:57:36 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 00:57
Mike
Do not feel sorry for me, feel sorry for Canada if Harper gets elected.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:17:01 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 23:17
Agreed your reference was in bad taste like your entire argument of your party fit to govern.
70% of Canadians dont support the Liberal Party. Accept that first and start to rebuild the broken party.
[updated Sun Oct 12 00:56:13 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 00:56
Mike
I used the comparison to demonstrate the direction a leader takes the country is more important than the leader himself. I used the name to underline a point. I must apologize, that was not a worthy argument, and not in good taste.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:48:22 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 23:48
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
I compare Harper to any ideologue in history including Hitler, Mao etc., They all attempt to impede the free exchange of ideas
[updated Sun Oct 12 06:10:24 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 06:10
Mike
... more
I used the comparison to demonstrate the direction a leader takes the country is more important than the leader himself. I used the name to underline a point. I must apologize, that was not a worthy argument, and not in good taste.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:48:22 EDT 2008]
Again another low class liberal using a historical figure responsible for deaths in the millions. Nice Job.
[updated Sun Oct 12 09:09:44 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 09:09
Mike
At least we middle of the road guys can admit when they made an error. when will Harper apologize for what he has done to this country?
[updated Sun Oct 12 11:02:10 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 11:02
You spin and distort. You believe in 2.5 years major changes to Canada have occured and the CPC are responsible.
Get over it. The problems are previous successive Liberal governments and CPC undoing the damage.
But please keep spinning away middle of the road.
Dion is promising more than Layton by $ 5 billion this time....rofl
Extreme left wing campaign by Dion another hidden Agenda from a fiscal right of centre party (Martin). Dishonesty is the Liberal way.
[updated Sun Oct 12 11:13:56 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 11:13
Harper is growing into the job
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
".... Mr. Harper has governed moderately and competently for nearly three years. He has not taken the country in dangerous new directions or significantly eroded the capacity of the government to act, when necessary, in the public interest. He has been side-swiped, at least on the emotional level, by an international economic crisis of epic proportions. But he has gotten the big things right."
"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not.
If you want to meet the most inflexible head of a major political party, Mr. Dion takes it in a cakewalk. He's had a relatively strong week to be sure, but has never been much inclined to make the kind of mid-course corrections required in uncharted waters. He is a priest not a proselytizer, better at righteousness than salesmanship. The Green Shift has been an electoral disaster not because a carbon tax/income tax swap is a bad idea, but because his proposal is ill-timed, ill-considered (why mix an anti-poverty initiative into a tax on greenhouse gas emissions?) and ill-presented. You cannot be a leader without creating followers and Mr. Dion has failed to attract followers to his signature policy."
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:22:00 EDT 2008]
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:58:08 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 20:58
"Harper is growing into the job"
Yes, much like a tumour invades a healthy body.
Time for the voters to cut the bilious tumour out.
[updated Sun Oct 12 02:18:45 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 02:18
Harper and aides have been cleared by the RCMP. FACT
Since your the least fanatical liberal, I will explain if you care to really understand the issue..
"Tape at centre of a $2.5-million lawsuit" Agreed?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Writer denies doctoring Cadman tape
Andrew Mayeda, Canwest News Service
Published: Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Last month, the RCMP said that their investigation into the allegations of attempted bribery by Conservative officials found "no evidence" to support criminal charges.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=520649
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Are you suggesting the RCMP is lying or incompetent? The same body that found Goodale not involved in the leaks of the Trust information?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The matter in the news story is in regards to the "civil" lawsuit.
Look at the lead media covering the story the CBC. Do you think the CBC has a liberal bias?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The audio expert confirmed tape was not doctored between Harper and Surry Author. Fact.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are the statements below.
"The insurance policy for a million dollars, do you know anything about that?" Zytaruk asks.
"I don't know the details. I know that there were discussions," Harper replies on the tape. "This is not for publication?"
"This will be for the book, not for the newspaper," answers Zytaruk, who works for a Surrey newspaper.
Harper goes on to explain on the tape that the offer to Cadman was "only to replace financial considerations he might lose due to an election." He adds that the offer was carried out by people who were "legitimately representing the party."
He also tells Zytaruk that he knew there was little chance Cadman would agree.
"They wanted to do it, but I told them they were wasting their time. I said Chuck had made up his mind," Harper said.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Harper and aides have been cleared by the RCMP. FACT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is that in the article? Is that balanced reporting?
"only to replace financial considerations he might lose due to an election." is the statement made on the tape that was not doctored. RCMP investigated and cleared it.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The CBC, Toronto Star are Liberals without "class". They will use anything to regain power. FACT
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:01:39 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:01
Mike
Harper named a conservative bagman as commissioner of the R.C.M.P. First time in Canadian history we have a civilian in that position.
No wonder there is not investigations into the Cadman affair, or any other laws Harper has broken or bent.
Harper is not fit to hold public office.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:24:53 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 21:24
PM Dion is the reason for the surge in votes away from Liberals.
Titanic and S.S. Minnow with Dion at Helm.
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:03:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 22:03
Mike
Prime Minister Dion has the plan and the team to steer Canada through this economic mess. The conservatives are right, the present economic situation is not home grown and there is very little Canada could have done to avoid it. But when it hit wouldn’t it have been nice to have a $12 billion surplus to cushion the blow, instead of 2 pennies off the GST that few people even noticed. We could be upgrading our infrastructure, give industry the means to retool and produce more efficient automobiles, invest in cleaner energy, and refit our homes.
The coming economic slowdown could have been used to position ourselves for the 21st century; instead we have two cents in our pockets and the risk of a national deficit.
Harper is not fit to hold public office.
[updated Sun Oct 12 09:52:40 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 09:52
The plan does not exist. Calling a meeting of leaders and asking your finance minister is not a plan. According to the Liberal Party it's a plan. I accept that.
That $ 12 billion surplus is a result of being over taxed in our lives including our companies. You only cite the GST it came off several areas. Try reading the budget and apply some honesty in your spin.
$5 billion went to Quebec for fiscal imbalance are you suggesting Dion keep that money and Quebec was wrong?
Is Ontario wrong fairness on fiscal imbalance too?
Read the budget and list where he cut you don't support.
Harper Agenda 2.5 years compliments of Bloc and Liberals anything else is dishonest.
They voted and sat on their hands for the bills to pass. FACT.
Than check the HOC votes and see where Dion voted. So again not a leader.
List the bills and cuts you dont support.
[updated Sun Oct 12 10:35:38 EDT 2008]
12 Oct 10:35
Mike
We were not being over taxed; the liberal government balanced the budget then paid down the national debt by $65 billion during their time in power. Harper reduced the G.S.T. against the better judgment of the Canadian economic community to try and win a few votes.
Harper claims he is committed to paying down the national debt, if he cared one little bit about this country he would not have made the G.S.T. cut, since it only helped people that have the money to spend on bit ticket items. He would have left it in place, paid down the national debt or, God forbid come to the help of Canadians in troubled times; wouldn’t that be prudent economic governance?
Harper is not fit to hold public office.
[updated Sun Oct 12 11:16:10 EDT 2008]