As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally).
A few things to consider going into the final weekend of the campaign. First, if the Conservatives can pivot the focus of the election from themselves to Dion, it will serve them well. The reality is that as long as the Harper Tories drive support away from the Liberals (regardless of the final voter destination), it helps the Conservatives.
Because a Conservative majority win is unlikely at this time, the NDP will have a higher likelihood of holding on to their support because of less strategic voting.
For the Dion Liberals, they will likely battle to keep the focus on Harper to make him the ballot issue.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 8, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 27 (-2)
- NDP 22 (+2)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
- Jack Layton 63 (+6)
- Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
- Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview ... more
McMath (British Columbia) 10 Oct 14:26
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the... more
suedo (Newfoundland and Labrador) 10 Oct 14:30
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:26
I am not Conservative; I'm independent. It's fact not partisian. The tape is inc... more
novadog (Nova Scotia) 11 Oct 10:28
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs... more
Non-aligned in Toronto (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:31
Did you read the details of Nik`s poll today? It actually says that Conservativ... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:39
Comments
Nik,
Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview that aired yesterday? Will the reactions from the parties have any impact on people's perceptions? If so, how important will this be to the final outcome on October 14th?
Thank you.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:15 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
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Darryl
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding by riding fights in most parts of Canada.
The recent liberal uptick is over.
Can the NDP hold and how many 3-way races will there be out there on Tuesday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:32 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the seat count by 0.
I wonder if the loss from the Libs side could have gone to the undecided - up 3
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:30:01 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:30
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content. I was quite amazed at the leadership numbers that show Layton as the choice of Best PM in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.
With the long weekend upon us, it'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the next couple of days. One thing I noted, which is HIGHLY unusual in a campaign is that the undecided numbers are rising in all areas of the country. This is quite contrary to a normal campaign where things solidify in the last week.
Could we be headed for a three horse race?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:09 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:31
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this.
When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest, it will predict a gap of 10% between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:04 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
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Dear Nik, With your data you support we vote leader than party.
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
Jack Layton 63 (+6)
Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
Is this the highest a NDP leader has every polled? Party support is at 22% atm.
Thanks.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:38:29 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:38
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Bud the spud
This is really interesting. Today's numbers seem to reflect a reversal of the usual trend for soft NDP votes to break towards the Liberals at the end of a campaign.
I think we are witnessing a change in the 'yellow dog' component of the Liberal vote. Traditionally they could count on a number of people who would vote for a yellow dog in their riding if it appeared under the Liberal banner. It seems that this number shrank after the sponsorship scandal, and hasn't recovered since. While most of us expected that these voter would drift towards the Conservatives, it seems that they are more comfortable with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. Ironically it might benefit the Conservatives in seat counts, unless the shift his highly localized.
Speaking of the Conservatives, they seem to have their own version of the yellow dog phenomenon.Their vote is running just ahead of the yellow dog component of about 30 percent. Although their support seems to have stabilized, chances are that just over 30 percent is all that they can expect from the electorate.
Ironically for a party whose election strategy was to showcare their leader, Harper seems to be the weak link. He scores highest on the Prime minister scale and the leadership index, but his Prime ministerial ranking of 30 percent reflects almost entirely his base support, and his leadership index scores have actually started to run below that. The only thing that is keeping him in the lead right now is that the non-aligned voters split between three or four parties, depending on where you live in the country.
I've seen this play out on he local level: a friend is unimpressed with her local MP, and would like to vote for a stong Conservative candidate instead, but she can't stand Harper and does not want him in power. She's voting for a fringe candidate instead, which will probably help to elect the Liberal incumbent.
In the next few days, if the Thanksgiving conversations coalesce around one of another of the opposition leaders, we might have a very surprising result: a change in government. On the other hand, the vote could result in fewer voters for the Conservatives, but more seats. I can't wait.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:48:22 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:48
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Has the time arrived for the conservatives to look for a PC leader? Finding the right "right" might just help keep Canada in step with people around the globe.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:18:25 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:18
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
All right wingers. I need your help. When people take out a mortgage through CMHC does it include insurance. If the mortgage is not paid for whatever reason does the insurance pay the mortgage holder ,usually a bank, what is owed on the mortgage. If this is the case did Harper just bail out insurance companies who would have paid been forced to pay the many mortgages that unemployed people will soon default on. There are rules on how much of the equity you have in your home you can lose so is there any one out there who can fill us in on those rules. The bail out of the banks to the tune of 25 billon might just have been an insurance company bailout.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:59:23 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:59
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Just out, Ontario Court hears that Harper Tape from Cadmen affair was NOT altered, The Conservatives tried to keep this from being filed in Court until after the election but the court order experts who did the analysis, state that indeed it is authentic.
Here it is:
By Tim Naumetz, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert.
The analysis was filed in Ontario Superior Court on Friday by lawyers for the Liberal party, despite attempts by Harper's lawyer to keep the opinion out of the court file until at least next week.
Harper sued the Liberals in the midst of a raging controversy earlier this year over claims in a book by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk that Conservatives offered late MP Chuck Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy in return for help defeating the minority Liberal government in 2005.
The prime minister claims Zytaruk doctored the tape of an interview he conducted with Harper after Cadman died, and denies he told Zytaruk he was unaware of the "details" of the insurance policy offer.
Harper insists he only confirmed the party had offered Cadman "financial considerations" in return for rejoining the Tories and voting against the Liberals in a Commons confidence vote.
But former FBI agent Bruce Koenig, the sound expert Harper hired to prove his allegations, submitted a report dated Friday to Harper's lawyer, which also had to be sent to the Liberal lawyer, Chris Paliare, saying the contentious portion of the interview was uninterrupted.
Koenig said the first part of Zytaruk's interview with Harper, where the two had apparently discussed other aspects of Harper's relationship with Cadman, had been erased and over-recorded with the portion dealing with the insurance policy.
But that segment had not been altered, Koenig found.
He reported that it "contains neither physical nor electronic splices, edits or alterations, except for the over-recording start that erased and replaced the end of the first part of the designated interview."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081010/national/harper_cadman
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:34:59 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:34
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Cadman tape not altered as claimed by Harpercrite:
This should alert people about voting for the liar and briber.
" OTTAWA — A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal Party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Mr. Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Mr. Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wcadman1010/BNStory/National/home
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:46:43 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:46
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This is indeed a good sign.
I hope this trend holds as the Liberals shouldn't win because people are scarred of the Conservatives, and the NDP is deserving of every single seat they will win come the 14th.
[updated Fri Oct 10 21:48:05 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 21:48
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fjmadrid
Hi Nik, I believe that a pollster can obtain numbers, look at the statistical info and trends and I am fine with that. But to state that because there is a decline in numbers for the Conservatives, there will be less strategic voting is an assumption, which might influence voters and change the results. Which information from the numbers is telling you that there will be less strategic voting. I hope your analysis is not biased.
[updated Fri Oct 10 23:54:51 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 23:54
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike
Hi Nic
The polls will change in the liberal favour once Canadians realize the impact of the declaration that the recording of Steven Harper by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk have not been altered as claimed by Harper.
This means the leader of the Conservative party perjured himself during cross-examination by lawyer Paliare. It also confirms that Steven Harper was aware that the conservatives were attempting to bribe Chuck Cadman, another criminal offence. Add to this the in and out scheme and you have to start wondering why the R.C.M.P. have been so low key in their investigation. Could it be that being the first civilian commissioner in R.C.M.P. history, William Elliott is protecting his boss and his organisation, the Conservative party; instead of the government? Can there be another explanation why this is not being investigated, there is more than enough evidence to warrant one.
Harper is trying to steal another election in the same way he did in 2006; when commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli insisted on launching the fake investigation of Ralph Goodale.
Harper should not be running for Prime Minister he should be consulting his defence team to face criminal charges.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:19:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 01:19
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
I agree Mike and I hope Dion uses it this weekend although the fact Harper delayed the inevitable by filing a libel suit may deter the Libs who are always prudent and not prone to buying sitting MP's into crossing the floor.
[updated Sat Oct 11 05:09:57 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 05:09
Bernie
I agree mike. And this is only one of the dozens of deceitful and underhanded ways Harper has used to gain power. He is following the playbook, using the same methods as the Bush republican party. The Americans who so supported Bush back then rue the day they voted for him. his corruption, war mongering, his lack of regulations and controls on the free market, his lowering of taxes have brought America to it knees and caused great global damage.
Harper and his gang will do the same and if he ever got a majority Canadians in a very few years will be just a sorry.
At least we will be able to say we told you so.
[updated Sat Oct 11 07:14:25 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 07:14
MRM
Belinda Stronach, junior Tory candidate with less than two years experience crossed the floor and was made a minister and handed the largest dept in govt. Scott Brison same. Very prudent. Just more Liberal nonsense from parnel.
The tape was altered and there are three other experts that say it was including an FBI expert. All the retired RCMP expert said was that "as far as I could determine it was not tampered with but segments of the interview were stopped, restarted and taped over." This has not much to with the actual suit anyway and has been long known by the defense but was released now and is being spun by you lefties as some kind of vindication, which it is not. Keep spinning. I hope that Dion and Layton go off the economy and start talking about this because it will help the Tories. It has been clear from the start that they don't care much about this story and at the moment only care about who can best handle the economy. They are arriving at the logical conclusion that it is the Tories.
[updated Sat Oct 11 07:35:41 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 07:35
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper's own expert just said it wasn't altered after the the ones the Libs hired said the same thing and you're still in denial. It must hurt a lot voting for a liar briber and thief.
You're BS is really bad now.........how desperate can you be?
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:45:08 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:45
Mike
MRM
Us lefties are not the ones spinning this story, there is no need; we are just telling it the way it happened. We want Canadians to know, before Tuesday, that the guy they are considering electing as Prime Minister perjured himself, in cross-examination. The only reason Harper is not under criminal investigation is because he appointed a conservative bagman, William Elliot, as R.C.M.P. commissioner.
He cannot be trusted even with a minority. His stated objective is to weaken Canadian institutions.
As for which party can better handle the economy, look south of the border. The world economic crisis we are presently living can be attributed to decisions of right wing ideology. We certainly do not need more economic management like that north of the border. The Canadian banks are the sturdiest in the world, because of good stewardship by Paul Martin and Ralph Goodale, and in spite of the last two and half years of Jim Flaherty bungling.
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:57:48 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:57
So if I understand correctly,...you are questioning the integrity if a veteran RCMP officer?
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:27:02 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:27
My mistake,...he is not a veteran of the RCMP.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:38:53 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:38
MRM
He is definately questioning the integrity of a lot of veteran RCMP Officers. All those that investigated the case and then supposedly either altered or hid evidence on the Commissioner's orders. Sounds like we have another conspiracy theorist among us? Or does he think that the Commissioner investigated himself?
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:11:56 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:11
Mike
He is not a veteran RCMP officer, he is a Conservative civilian appointed by Steven Harper. First time in Canadian history the commissioner was not chosen from within their own ranks.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:43:53 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:43
MRM
Mike - Listen to yourself? You are saying that the Commissioner of the RCMP and all those who investigated the case are criminals. You also are not being honest about the case. Look at the facts. The case is not about the tape. It is not even about if a bribe was offered or not. It is about whether the PM gave the order to offer a bribe. That is what Dion and the LPC website asserted and that is what they are being sued for. Those are the facts and this tape has little to do with the legal point being argued. All you are offering is inuendo, false allegations and a misrepresentaion of the facts. Largely because you choose not to hear all the facts. But who cares. The public has moved on from this and really doesn't care anymore. The court will make it's determination based on the evidence and the law, not on anything you and your dim witted friend parnel (gohabs) have to say about it.
The same is true of your left wing spin that the Tories are the same as the Republicans. Give it up, Canadians know the difference and are not buying it. If you want proof check todays polls.
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:08:32 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:08
With all due respect, you haven't got your facts correct. Although the insurance part has not been altered, the complete conversation is not there, parts of the tape has been taped over. In a court of law this tape cannot be used as evidence.
It appears some of the media is trying to make the election more interesting.
I'm afraid Mr. Dion should have waited for the results of the tests.
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:44:57 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:44
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Another brilliant breakdown by partisian fans of the liar briber and thief. the key part of the tape WAS NOT ALTERED. How much clearer can it be?
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:47:41 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:47
I am not Conservative; I'm independent. It's fact not partisian. The tape is incomplete. If your are going to play this game you should grow up and stop being so sinsitive, you are starting to remind me of Mr. Dion
[updated Sat Oct 11 10:28:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 10:28
Darryl
This tape thing isn't going to have any effect on this election. It's very old news and there is still no clear answer on what went down and who knew what. It's pretty much impossible to prove anything in this type of situation.
[updated Sat Oct 11 11:07:55 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 11:07
Mike
.The evidence is clear; the section of tape in question has not been altered. Spin it as hard as you want, the results are the same, the leader of the conservative party perjured himself and lied to the Canadian people. He should be facing criminal charges not the electorate.
Harper is not fit to hold office.
[updated Sat Oct 11 11:25:02 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 11:25
I think this will actually hurt the Liberal party more than the PC. I mean,...the TAPE HAS been ALTERED. SO which party altered it????? I think that will be the next part of this story. The media can not stretch it out any more,.. another story that is not there...IT was recorded over. Fact.
This can not even be used as evidence now,...as it has been tampered with from the get go. Also...how was the tape aquired? What promises or deals were struck to get it?
I think this could be just as damaging for the party that came out with it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:37:06 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:37
Mike
More smoke and mirrors, not once did you explain what Harper meant on the tape, that section was not modified in anyway. And why would Cadman’s widow lie about her husband or his daughter about her father.
Harper is a low life; his only ambition, maintain power at any cost.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:51:54 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:51
MRM
Mike - Who's spinning now? You are right about one thing - Why would Donna Cadman lie? She wouldn't. That is why we should believe her when she says that the PM was not aware of any life insurance offer made. End of story.
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:39:22 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:39
larryl
moin. What part of the expert report did you not understand. The tape was unedited as Harper had stated under oath. The crucial part of the tape that has Harper clearly admit he knew of financial considerations being offered to Cadman is original. The man committed perjury and that should be obvious to all. His claim that the tape was edited has been proven false by his own expert. How much clearer can that be ?
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:08:32 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:08
Simply Pathetic attempt in a desperate act to change the outcome.
Fact RCMP investigation already dealt with allegations. So no investigation is starting.
Liberals spent millions of taxpayers dollars making this an issue for months.
This is a civil lawsuit. Lawsuit has not been dropped. FACT
CBC, Toronto Star and fanatics will ignore the content above including the "content" in the tape.
So spin and distort again.
The sky is not falling, Canada is a great country, Bush is not running for PM, Green Shaft is a tax grab the voters got it. The Bloc, NDP, CPC, Green support leaves Liberals at the lowest since Turner.
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 33 (NC)
NDP 22 (+2)
BQ 10% (NC)
Green Party 8% (+1)
74% Committed Voters Don't support the Liberal Party.
[updated Sat Oct 11 11:47:50 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 11:47
Oh "Informed1" you are correct. Canadians need to forget about the soap opera down south and get serious about Canada. Stephen Harper is no George Bush and Stephan Dion is no Barack Obama.
The Conservative Party of Canada is not the Republicans and the Liberal Party of Canada is not the Demorcrates.
A bad day in Canada is better than a good day in the states.
Best Regards
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:23:08 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:23
Thanks
Iggy said it best Dion bet his future on the Green Shaft.
Voters got it. Tax Grab.
Goodluck and have a happy thanks giving.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:33:28 EDT 2008]