As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally).
A few things to consider going into the final weekend of the campaign. First, if the Conservatives can pivot the focus of the election from themselves to Dion, it will serve them well. The reality is that as long as the Harper Tories drive support away from the Liberals (regardless of the final voter destination), it helps the Conservatives.
Because a Conservative majority win is unlikely at this time, the NDP will have a higher likelihood of holding on to their support because of less strategic voting.
For the Dion Liberals, they will likely battle to keep the focus on Harper to make him the ballot issue.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 8, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 27 (-2)
- NDP 22 (+2)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
- Jack Layton 63 (+6)
- Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
- Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
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Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview ... more
McMath (British Columbia) 10 Oct 14:26
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the... more
suedo (Newfoundland and Labrador) 10 Oct 14:30
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:26
I am not Conservative; I'm independent. It's fact not partisian. The tape is inc... more
novadog (Nova Scotia) 11 Oct 10:28
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs... more
Non-aligned in Toronto (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:31
Did you read the details of Nik`s poll today? It actually says that Conservativ... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:39
Comments
Nik,
Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview that aired yesterday? Will the reactions from the parties have any impact on people's perceptions? If so, how important will this be to the final outcome on October 14th?
Thank you.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:15 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding by riding fights in most parts of Canada.
The recent liberal uptick is over.
Can the NDP hold and how many 3-way races will there be out there on Tuesday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:32 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the seat count by 0.
I wonder if the loss from the Libs side could have gone to the undecided - up 3
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:30:01 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:30
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content. I was quite amazed at the leadership numbers that show Layton as the choice of Best PM in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.
With the long weekend upon us, it'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the next couple of days. One thing I noted, which is HIGHLY unusual in a campaign is that the undecided numbers are rising in all areas of the country. This is quite contrary to a normal campaign where things solidify in the last week.
Could we be headed for a three horse race?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:09 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:31
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
There's a lot of reason for ndp supporters to be happy this election, that's for sure. It looks like no matter what polls you read, at this point there will be significant seat gains for the ndp. Somewhere between 10 and 25 seats depending on which polls you're looking at.
It's probably wishful thinking to say it's a three way race. nothing indicates that. But very definately reason to hope for strong gains, and of course that means more money and more time in the house of commons to look good in front of the camera for the next race. It would also be the strongest showing in history for the ndp.
With the libs in severe financial disarray, it would give layton a chance to beat them next time out.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:02:10 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:02
tiredandjaded
This is what I predicted and what I feared would happen. With the threat of a Harper majority disappearing the NDP will gain popularity and the Conservatives will win.
And can people please get off this "Jack Layton can be PM/Leader of the Opposition" idea? It's not going to happen.
Even if the NDP gets more of the popular vote than the Liberals they won't have enough seats to pass both the Liberals and the Bloc, let alone the Conservatives.
It may be a three way race in some ridings, some provinces and even in the popular vote, but not in the race for Prime Minister.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:04:01 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:04
Darryl
But that will set the scene for the NDP to possibly take over in the next election from the liberals. That has been their grand plan for a long time now.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:10:35 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:10
Lex Llewdor
They could if the Liberals suffer particularly badly from vote splitting, but that would also require that the Conservatives split that vote, which means Jack can only be opposition leader with a weak Conservative minority. Any CPC gains pretty much rule that out (because the NDP needs to win those seats).
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:26:20 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 17:26
Dear Liberal "Royalty"
The voters who support NDP do not belong the the Liberal Party. The sooner you understand that concept the better Canada will become. Your party has lost popular support and sits at the lowest in years. Canadians vote for a leader and than party. More Canadians are voting for Harper, Layton, Duceppe this time around again.
You want strategic voting for Canadians to vote against their beliefs or policies to benefit your party and to stop the CPC. If the positions were reversed you would not be in favour of strategic voting. You would call it undemocratic.
You feel your party is only fit to govern and were cheated in the last election by vote splitting.
Your party has not earned the right to govern because you think so. You need more votes to govern. Thats our system.
Change your policies (Green Shaft) was very bad.
Change your leader so he can present his party in both official languages.
Run on a platform and give Canadians a clear choice why they are better.
Don't blame Canadians for voting for their beliefs its our system.
Plan B
Unite the Liberals, NDP, Green to form one party. The PC and Alliance did.
Plan C
Vote to change our system to allow rep by pop vote to reflect your view your idealogy holds more Canadians.
We both know your party will never support that democratic principle.
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:12:33 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:12
Plan A
Might be possible but I don't think Iggy and Rae are good options as the leader. Rae has been a big problem for us in Ontario and I'm not sure he will serve the Liberals any better, and Iggy is a blue a Liberal as I have seen in a long time.
Plan B
I don't see the NDP on board with this idea, although the Greens might be interested.
Plan C
I think this is the best plan over all. I know a number of people that would like to vote for a party like the old Progressive Conservatives, and it would give the greens some seats. Although its unlikely the Liberals would support this because they would never have a majority again.
[updated Sat Oct 11 10:21:22 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 10:21
Agreed the Liberals in Ontario or Federally will never allow other parties to sit in the HOC to split their chance of regaining a majority.
Bob was never a hard core socialist. His unions supporters did not accept his requests for cost containment during the recession.
Rae Day vs Harris years. That's why asking us to pay for another tax grab was the biggest problem for the Liberals this campaign.
Rae, Harris, McGuinty are getting shortchanged in the transfer payments always. The problem is now the Premier is crying about it and not in opposition when Harris had to cut billions.
At least with Harris he delivered Common Sense Revolution. You may not like his policies but he kept his promises.
Rae and now Harper will be victims of the global recession. I dont think anyone could have survived the outcome.
I think we are in for some deep job losses in Ontario Quebec in the next 12 months. Double what has happened so far. The drop in the dollar won't help unless it hit 70's.
Are you watching the meltdown in the stocks and the US?
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:03:44 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:03
larryl
Newly. The reason the undecided is rising is because they phone new people every day. If they call some of the people polled before and they have become undecided that would be something different. The 400 people polled Monday were undecided that day and the day before. This shows the inconsistency of the poll and why there are large swings in any direction.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:42:45 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:42
Post-Steve
"Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content." At least you admit that your responses to core issue debates are determined by your clique loyalty rather than by any thought of your own or any concern for your country or neighbours. That makes you an NDP core voter.
The rising undecided are probably strategic voters rather than fools yearning for a dictator with a porn star moustache. Some polls have strategic intentions at 1/ 6 of all voters including many people reporting NDP and Green, maybe as many as 1/3 of their totals. Conservatives are highly unlikely to be strategic voters (who would they vote for?) and Liberals would be only in a few Western ridings. Those strategic voters will decide who's the next Prime Minister.
If the NDP and Greens want influence, in most ridings all they have to do is vote Liberal and tell the candidate they're a strategic voter and will pull that vote and take them out of office if they don't pursue environmental and social justice goals to the best of their ability.
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:34:53 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:34
MichaelFox
It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this.
When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest, it will predict a gap of 10% between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:04 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
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Dear Nik, With your data you support we vote leader than party.
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
Jack Layton 63 (+6)
Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
Is this the highest a NDP leader has every polled? Party support is at 22% atm.
Thanks.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:38:29 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:38
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bud the spud
This is really interesting. Today's numbers seem to reflect a reversal of the usual trend for soft NDP votes to break towards the Liberals at the end of a campaign.
I think we are witnessing a change in the 'yellow dog' component of the Liberal vote. Traditionally they could count on a number of people who would vote for a yellow dog in their riding if it appeared under the Liberal banner. It seems that this number shrank after the sponsorship scandal, and hasn't recovered since. While most of us expected that these voter would drift towards the Conservatives, it seems that they are more comfortable with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. Ironically it might benefit the Conservatives in seat counts, unless the shift his highly localized.
Speaking of the Conservatives, they seem to have their own version of the yellow dog phenomenon.Their vote is running just ahead of the yellow dog component of about 30 percent. Although their support seems to have stabilized, chances are that just over 30 percent is all that they can expect from the electorate.
Ironically for a party whose election strategy was to showcare their leader, Harper seems to be the weak link. He scores highest on the Prime minister scale and the leadership index, but his Prime ministerial ranking of 30 percent reflects almost entirely his base support, and his leadership index scores have actually started to run below that. The only thing that is keeping him in the lead right now is that the non-aligned voters split between three or four parties, depending on where you live in the country.
I've seen this play out on he local level: a friend is unimpressed with her local MP, and would like to vote for a stong Conservative candidate instead, but she can't stand Harper and does not want him in power. She's voting for a fringe candidate instead, which will probably help to elect the Liberal incumbent.
In the next few days, if the Thanksgiving conversations coalesce around one of another of the opposition leaders, we might have a very surprising result: a change in government. On the other hand, the vote could result in fewer voters for the Conservatives, but more seats. I can't wait.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:48:22 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:48
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Has the time arrived for the conservatives to look for a PC leader? Finding the right "right" might just help keep Canada in step with people around the globe.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:18:25 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:18
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
All right wingers. I need your help. When people take out a mortgage through CMHC does it include insurance. If the mortgage is not paid for whatever reason does the insurance pay the mortgage holder ,usually a bank, what is owed on the mortgage. If this is the case did Harper just bail out insurance companies who would have paid been forced to pay the many mortgages that unemployed people will soon default on. There are rules on how much of the equity you have in your home you can lose so is there any one out there who can fill us in on those rules. The bail out of the banks to the tune of 25 billon might just have been an insurance company bailout.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:59:23 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:59
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Just out, Ontario Court hears that Harper Tape from Cadmen affair was NOT altered, The Conservatives tried to keep this from being filed in Court until after the election but the court order experts who did the analysis, state that indeed it is authentic.
Here it is:
By Tim Naumetz, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert.
The analysis was filed in Ontario Superior Court on Friday by lawyers for the Liberal party, despite attempts by Harper's lawyer to keep the opinion out of the court file until at least next week.
Harper sued the Liberals in the midst of a raging controversy earlier this year over claims in a book by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk that Conservatives offered late MP Chuck Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy in return for help defeating the minority Liberal government in 2005.
The prime minister claims Zytaruk doctored the tape of an interview he conducted with Harper after Cadman died, and denies he told Zytaruk he was unaware of the "details" of the insurance policy offer.
Harper insists he only confirmed the party had offered Cadman "financial considerations" in return for rejoining the Tories and voting against the Liberals in a Commons confidence vote.
But former FBI agent Bruce Koenig, the sound expert Harper hired to prove his allegations, submitted a report dated Friday to Harper's lawyer, which also had to be sent to the Liberal lawyer, Chris Paliare, saying the contentious portion of the interview was uninterrupted.
Koenig said the first part of Zytaruk's interview with Harper, where the two had apparently discussed other aspects of Harper's relationship with Cadman, had been erased and over-recorded with the portion dealing with the insurance policy.
But that segment had not been altered, Koenig found.
He reported that it "contains neither physical nor electronic splices, edits or alterations, except for the over-recording start that erased and replaced the end of the first part of the designated interview."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081010/national/harper_cadman
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:34:59 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:34
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Cadman tape not altered as claimed by Harpercrite:
This should alert people about voting for the liar and briber.
" OTTAWA — A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal Party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Mr. Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Mr. Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wcadman1010/BNStory/National/home
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:46:43 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:46
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This is indeed a good sign.
I hope this trend holds as the Liberals shouldn't win because people are scarred of the Conservatives, and the NDP is deserving of every single seat they will win come the 14th.
[updated Fri Oct 10 21:48:05 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 21:48
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fjmadrid
Hi Nik, I believe that a pollster can obtain numbers, look at the statistical info and trends and I am fine with that. But to state that because there is a decline in numbers for the Conservatives, there will be less strategic voting is an assumption, which might influence voters and change the results. Which information from the numbers is telling you that there will be less strategic voting. I hope your analysis is not biased.
[updated Fri Oct 10 23:54:51 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 23:54
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Mike
Hi Nic
The polls will change in the liberal favour once Canadians realize the impact of the declaration that the recording of Steven Harper by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk have not been altered as claimed by Harper.
This means the leader of the Conservative party perjured himself during cross-examination by lawyer Paliare. It also confirms that Steven Harper was aware that the conservatives were attempting to bribe Chuck Cadman, another criminal offence. Add to this the in and out scheme and you have to start wondering why the R.C.M.P. have been so low key in their investigation. Could it be that being the first civilian commissioner in R.C.M.P. history, William Elliott is protecting his boss and his organisation, the Conservative party; instead of the government? Can there be another explanation why this is not being investigated, there is more than enough evidence to warrant one.
Harper is trying to steal another election in the same way he did in 2006; when commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli insisted on launching the fake investigation of Ralph Goodale.
Harper should not be running for Prime Minister he should be consulting his defence team to face criminal charges.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:19:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 01:19
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Just looked at the detailed break down and I'm happy to see the NDP way up in Atlantic Canada. I can't speak for the rest of the country but the CPC's refusal to show up at local debates probably hurt them a lot. I know that here in Fredericton there has been a lot of back lash about it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 09:51:12 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 09:51
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MAPSONBURT
Bets on Niks numbers for today?
I'm predicting:
Cons 36 (up 3)
Libs 25 (down 2)
NDP 22 (steady)
Bloc 9 (down 1)
Green 8 or 9 (Libs that can't bring themselves to vote Cons)
I think that the big swing will be in Quebec as they see the writing on the wall and go for power vs protest. Put up your predictions.
[updated Sat Oct 11 10:13:19 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 10:13
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WHERE THEY ARE TODAY
Where does a leader go?
To seats they can win?
Seats he's trying to save?
Harper – London, Guelph, Longueuil, Que.
Dion – Oakville, Newmarket, Vaughan (saving the furniture again Mississauga yesterday)
Layton – Montreal
May – Antigonish, New Glasgow, Westville, Pictou, N.S.
Duceppe – Dorion, Gatineau, Que.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/516045
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:41:15 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:41
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
agnostic
Among the many questions posed by this election, the issue of how the NDP strategy of taxing corporations is going to help our current economics is one that is rising on the scale of importance. Layton doesn't explain how his economic theories will work to hold industry here in this country or how it will encourage new business opportunities. Instead, what I hear from him is one liner rhetorical feel good campaign slogans.
I have to say, in all honesty if that is all it takes to get your vote, stay away from bars. You would be easy pickings for the one liner artists.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:54:57 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:54
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Post-Steve
Interesting/amusing/biased that the most important attribute of leadership, recruiting and team building, is not mentioned at all. You cannot find any text on management or leadership where inspiring people with skills you don't have isn't the central goal of leadership. How about restating as:
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
* The most trustworthy leader
* The most competent leader
* The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
* The leader most capable of choosing excellent cabinet ministers
* The leader most capable of working with provincial, municipal and foreign leaders
* The leader most capable of co-operating with other parties in a minority parliament
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:37:42 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:37
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Bud the spud
One of the most surprising things in this campaign has been how badly the Conservatives have managed the Quebec file. They won a surprising number of seats there in 2006, and seemed poised for more gains this time, perhaps even enough to manufacture a majority. The BQ seemed all but dead, perhaps one more election away from joining the Creditistes as historical footnotes. Now the Conservatives are running third in the province, with a reseurgent BQ that might take even more seats than they did in 2006. Democracy Watch's latest projection has the Conservatives taking only six seats, and that was before Harper's hamhanded denunciation of Dion's interview fumble further angered Queceois. Milton Chan's Election Preduiction model rates Conservative chanes only slightly higher, at nine.
Now it seems likely that if the Conservatives form a government, it will be with just a handful of Quebec representatives, and these MPs will almost have to be put in cabinet, no matter how accident-prone they turn out to be.
More worrying than that prospect, however, is that the Conservative platform promises to reopen the constituional file to reform the senate. Quebec separatists must be salivating at the prospect of another constiutional debate with a strong BQ presence in the House. It seems as if the Mulroney years might be upon us again.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:40 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:10
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