As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally).
A few things to consider going into the final weekend of the campaign. First, if the Conservatives can pivot the focus of the election from themselves to Dion, it will serve them well. The reality is that as long as the Harper Tories drive support away from the Liberals (regardless of the final voter destination), it helps the Conservatives.
Because a Conservative majority win is unlikely at this time, the NDP will have a higher likelihood of holding on to their support because of less strategic voting.
For the Dion Liberals, they will likely battle to keep the focus on Harper to make him the ballot issue.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 8, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 27 (-2)
- NDP 22 (+2)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
- Jack Layton 63 (+6)
- Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
- Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview ... more
McMath (British Columbia) 10 Oct 14:26
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the... more
suedo (Newfoundland and Labrador) 10 Oct 14:30
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:26
I am not Conservative; I'm independent. It's fact not partisian. The tape is inc... more
novadog (Nova Scotia) 11 Oct 10:28
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs... more
Non-aligned in Toronto (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:31
Did you read the details of Nik`s poll today? It actually says that Conservativ... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:39
Comments
Nik,
Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview that aired yesterday? Will the reactions from the parties have any impact on people's perceptions? If so, how important will this be to the final outcome on October 14th?
Thank you.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding by riding fights in most parts of Canada.
The recent liberal uptick is over.
Can the NDP hold and how many 3-way races will there be out there on Tuesday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:32 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the seat count by 0.
I wonder if the loss from the Libs side could have gone to the undecided - up 3
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:30:01 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:30
73 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
Based on Nik's newest numbers, the CPC support in the west overall went down slightly.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:59 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:31
suedo
good.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:32:42 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:32
Mike Stokes
That means it up some where else where it matter.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:40:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:40
Foxer
Yeah. The libs peaked and are backsliding. Interestingly, ekos tracks the loss in the west to ALBERTA and manitoba of all places. Manitoba makes sense -the support went to the ndp. I have no idea what happened in alberta :) But lib support there went up slightly. Not enough to win seats of course, but definately up.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:55:37 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:55
MichaelFox
When you're already at 66% support in Aberta, there's really only one direction that you can go. :)
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:28:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:28
Foxer
Pretty much :)
And of course in recent years the population of alberta has been greatly increased by other provincial migration, newfs and ontarians etc, who may not all share the traditional voter mentality of the average native-born albertan. So it's not entirely surprising to see a slight erosion of the CPC stranglehold.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:31:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:31
HC in AB
As an Alberta resident, born and raised here, and returned after a long sojourn in central Canada, I would note that my personal observation is that the people who take the inititiative to move here, in order to be able to provide for their families tend to be those who believe in personal responsibility and reward for personal inititiative. People with those kinds of values tend to be on the (small c) conservative side of the political spectrum and are natural CPC voters. Thus the in-migration has very little effect on the political climate here.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:22:22 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:22
Lex Llewdor
I was going to say the same thing.
In my experience, people who move to Alberta looking for work tend to vote like an Albertan within 2 elections of having arrived.
Because, not only do they find work, but they find a system that works, and that system is a free market.
There were some very entertaining new arrivals from Newfoundland a few years ago who tried to strike at a meat packing plant in Brooks. But, since Alberta doesn't have an anti-scab law, the plant just trucked in Somali immigrants. And the people of Brooks sided with the plant. After all, there were plenty of jobs around. If you don't like yours, get a different one.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:51:25 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:51
That is for the time being. As has been said many times it is easy to govern when times are good. I will reserve judgment for the Alberta Tories when things get bad.
[updated Sat Oct 11 11:58:49 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 11:58
suedo
Yes but it had gone up significantly. Quebec is gone for the conservatives and the Ontario vote will correct itself. The Conservatives must find a PC leader.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:10:34 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:10
Darryl
Did you read the details of Nik`s poll today?
It actually says that Conservative support is down 2% in western canada from yesterday`s poll. The only place in the country where this increased with today`s poll is Ontario - from 28% to 32%.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:39:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:39
I not sure unless you believe BC is already gone. I still think several battleground ridings are too close to call either way and Nanos does not track that specific.
Ekos has CPC ahead and Strategic has Libs ahead.
Goodluck either way.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:42:07 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:42
Mike Stokes
the Cons went up 4% in Ontario. which means positive in possible seat count
.the loss to the libs went to the NDP.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:46:59 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:46
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Yes but the liberals went down 6% in one day there. That's not normal and usually corrects itself the next day.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:52:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:52
Foxer
Other polls are reflecting similar drops in lib support in ontario.
I think dion has peaked and is beginning to slide.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:57:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:57
suedo
This would be called wishful thinking. If the Liberal vote shows at the polls - they will win a minority.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:12:35 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:12
Foxer
i agree. thinking the libs are going to win is indeed called wishful thinking.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:55:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:55
Lex Llewdor
Well played.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:56:25 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:56
suedo
Foxer - Harper just has to go. He is like a fish out of water. He is in the wrong country.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:02:56 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:02
Lex Llewdor
What country do you think would suit him? The US just nationalised their financial sector. He wouldn't fit in there, at all.
Jack Layton would.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:07:26 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:07
suedo
Don't know lex - but they still tote guns and all the other nice qualities the right-wing extremists love to hang on to. It's almost like he could ditch Baird and bring in Palin to sit in his Cabinet as an unelected member (no prob there). Maybe Harper will say - I will go out and find a plan and I'll bring it back to ya.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:12:52 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:12
Foxer
Harper will be staying. He's the right man for the right job in the right place. This is exactly the country he's supposed to be in.
Dion wants a tax that will cripple us all. Layton wants to tax big business -but thats where we get our jobs from and they have no money right now.
If you weren't so blinded by ideology you'd see that.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:12:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:12
suedo
Foxer I actually have an open mind. I gave him a shot - he lied on so many levels - frankly he scares me.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:18:28 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:18
Foxer
The fact is he didn't lie on any levels. He broke one promise. That's not the same. He's actually been the most up front we've had in a long time.
Dion has been just as bad or worse. He was in charge of kyoto - need i remind you how that went? And of course layton has never been in power so he's never had to live up to a promise.
The idea of being 'afraid' of a politician is silly. Look at the plans - decide who's going to have the best one and vote accordingly. There's no chance at this point of a harper majority, so he won't exactly have free run at any rate if you're still worried.
We cannot afford dion's plan - i can poke so many holes in it it's not funny.
Layton's plan is scarcely better - i mean my god, we're going to tax the businesses that are providing the jobs at THIS point in history? You don't need to be an economist to see the problems there.
Fear is not a real reason to choose your candidate. Like i said, look at the financial plans and the skills of the leaders and pick. This is NOT a time when canada can afford for you or anyone else to screw around. We're not in the weeds yet - but we're right on the edge. If we do the wrong things now, you could put tens of thousands of people out of work and tank the economy. Decide with your head, not your fears.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:29:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:29
suedo
Actually Lex it is - I cannot be that intolerant. I fell the fundamentalist lurking and when I listen to him I feel I am in the wrong country. It is too gun-toting - I don't see a Mounty - I see a Sheriff. He is too controlling and there were three significant lies to Newfoundland and Labrador - not counting the rest of the country.
While you may poke holes in Dion's plan - you can sink the environment in Harper's. I find interesting a man promising change will come in 2050 - I guess based on longevity estimates he would not be alive to see whether it actually worked.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:33:52 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:33
I believe so as well. People will vote with a strong leader that can handle the current situation. Dion does not have the experience. In times of uncertainty,...people fall back on something they know,..something reliable.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:46:12 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 12:46
Lex Llewdor
It's a rolling poll. Nothing corrects in one day.
It's also within the margin of error. Arguing that the votes aren't real would be a more credible tack.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:04:46 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:04
pulsar123
Statistically speaking, there's nothing to talk about. There's some reason pollsters put their "accuracy" numbers. The 2% shift for both Liberals and NDP (nationally) is not very significant (statistically). For a normal distribution, "19 out of 20" means something like a "two sigma deviation", and for the accuracy 3.1%, 2% shift is 1.3 sigma - something I wouldn't worry about. The shift is a bit more significant (around 2 sigmas) for Liberals in Ontario. The only other statistically significant regional shift is for NDP in Atlantic provinces - around +2 sigmas. All other numbers are consistent with no change since yesterday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:42:37 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:42
pulsar123
But the best thing in this kind of analysis is to compare not the overlapping "rolling" samples, but two completely independent measurements (separated by 3 days). Here are the numbers for the polls ending in Oct. 6 and 9:
Oct. 6 Oct. 9
CPC: 34 33
LPC: 31 27
NDP: 18 22
BQ: 11 10
GRE: 6 8
und: 15 17
Judging from these numbers, there was a statistically significant (>2 sigmas) decline for Liberals which was compensated by a similar growth for NDP. It is interesting that the other "softer" categories of voters (Green and undecided) also grew, though not very significantly. As Greens, NDP and of course undecided have the "softest" support (the largest fraction of their supporters is likely to change their choice on the voting day, with Liberals being the largest recipient of such "soft" votes), this paints a picture where voters on average became more disoriented and confused, and can be swayed one way or another until the voting day.
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:02:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:02
suedo
Now that Harper has gone up - the votes will polarize from NDP to Liberal.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:11:37 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:11
Lex Llewdor
I wonder why the Liberals, rather than discuss the data, feel the need to make predictions all the time.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:52:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:52
suedo
Data? Nothing there to show a PM yet...
up and down like the market
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:58:29 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:58
Foxer
Well - not really. The libs have trailed the CPC since day one and continue to do so. While it's possible the libs could surge in the last day, that's looking less likely and in fact it's looking like the CPC is getting a bit of a bounce.
The data pretty clearly shows a CPC gov't will be the result of this election. The question has only ever been how much will they win by - will it be stronger or weaker, a minority or a majority, etc.
But it IS looking like a cpc gov't.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:54:58 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 12:54
suedo
If Harper does not substantially improve the seat count - his career is over. He called the election.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:03:46 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 14:03
Foxer
Well that's not true. Sometimes i think you just say the most ridiculous thing that pops into your head.
If he LOSES the election, there will likely be serious consideration to replacing him. If he wins at all, even with less seats, he'll get beaten up a fair bit but he'll likely get one more kick at the can.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:18:29 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 14:18
suedo
He was already saying his goodbyes in an interview...If I lose it was a great privilege to be the PM...
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:57:46 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 14:57
Foxer
Yeah - because he knows the idea of 'prime minister dion' scares the crap out of people :) The only thing scarier to most than a harper majority is dion in power :)
[updated Sat Oct 11 15:38:01 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 15:38
suedo
No - that simply is not true.
[updated Sat Oct 11 17:07:11 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 17:07
Foxer
'fraid it is :)
Harper is moving forward in ontario - all it took there was 4 words ... "finance minister bob rae" :)
[updated Sat Oct 11 17:11:09 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 17:11
suedo
Not to happy with FM Flaherty either.
[updated Sat Oct 11 17:14:30 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 17:14
Foxer
Beats the heck out of rae that's for sure. Flaherty may have served under harris - but bob rae WAS the gov't and destroyed the place. Ontario doesn't want any more 'rae days'.
The fact is the libs either have no track records or bad track records. Dion's can't even keep his party out of deficit, but we're going to trust him wiht the country's economy in one of the worst global crisis ever? Thank god we had harper in already, canada's not being hit anywhere near as bad as the rest of the world, but people aren't stupid enough to turn the keys over to a man who couldn't bring kyoto in even with his gov'ts support and a majority.
now we see dion admitting that he won't actually DELIVER on his promises, due to the 'crisis'. But maybe hopefully he will right before the next election in year four he says. Suuuuure. We've seen THAT before from liberal gov'ts haven't we - he'll be making the same promises next election and not delivering again.
People may be a little thick once in a while, but despite what May says they're not stupid. Dion would be a disaster and they know it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 17:56:48 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 17:56
suedo
I believe that Progressive Conservative leadership would offer a reasonable choice to Canadians - I firmly believe Harper's real ideology is too far right for the majority of Canadians.
I think the Conservative Party will realize this as they look for a PC leader. In order to achieve a majority - the right party will have to return to the center.
When the merger of the parties occurred the PC part of Canada all moved to the Liberals and the reformers held their traditional base (Alberta) support. When Canada forgave the PC's the party had been hijacked by the far right. This is why PC's like Joe Clarke could not support it.
Canada will give the Conservatives a majority only after the party deals with this.
Harper is not the guy to do it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 19:57:06 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 19:57
Foxer
Well you're wrong. Harper is not too right for canada - in fact his 'rightness' has nothing to do with why he didn't take a majority this time.
Times change. The left wing had a time in canada. They did some things right but they did a lot of things wrong too.
People change too. They don't want a centralized gov't to tell them how to live and how to wipe their butts. They want a leader who will protect their interests without interfering in their lives with stupid social engineering experiments that don't work and cost us a fortune.
It is no longer possible for ontario to simply inflict it's vision of what 'canadians' are upon the rest of us. (as if we didn't know how to be canadian). The west has too many votes for that, and many parts of ontario are sick of it as well.
Which is why the libs are failing.
There is nothing whatsoever 'progressive' about the liberals. They lost their way years ago, and only their brand credit keeps them alive now. They will not survive in the long run, not as they are today.
Canada already supports the CPC above all other parties - and the libs grow weaker every election. That's because canadians are sick of theives, of 'social engineering' and of seeing their culture crushed by a bunch of self righteous bigots masquerading as a party of 'tolerance' - when nothing could be further from the truth.
Haven't you noticed that every election the whole 'scary conservatives' routine has less and less impact?
Enjoy your defeat this election - it only goes down hill for the libs from here.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:11:37 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:11
suedo
He is too right. People know Harper is only pandering to left leaning provinces to get a majority.
You will see this particularly in Quebec - which had no problem electing PC's.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:16:57 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:16
Foxer
No, sorry, he's wrong.
Someday the so-called 'liberals' (which aren't liberal at all, but actually a party of intolerance) will learn that they don't get to dictate to others how to live. Maybe once you learn that rather simple lesson you'll actually have a chance again. But the fact is that quebec was very warm to the cpc, until harper made a mistake with the arts comment - but they are ALWAYS down on the libs these days.
The libs are frequently less popular than the cpc - so what does THAT tell you.
The so called 'left' has lost its' way. It's an abomination - the antithisis of what it originally set out to be.
You two are living proof - all you've done here is insult and slag others. Fact is - the 'right wing' folk have been far more civil than you, and only a few of you kind have shown even a hint of decency and tolerance. As a group you cannot even respect the rules of this forum.
The libs are done. THey had their day. Nobody is much interested anymore and every election more and more support will bleed away from them. They'll lose seats again this time, and the next time too.
When the last 'liberal' leaves, do ask them to turn the lights out would you? Good for the environment.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:31:48 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:31
suedo
Quebec will do what is right for Quebec - they will use a Prime Minister desperate for power - to their advantage. But they know the difference and will not give a majority to a right winger.
In case you have not noticed the BLOC has remained the dominant voice for Quebec. They are left-wing.
They will give the Conservatives more if and when they provide a PC leader - not before.
As for the Libs they continue to be punished for the sponsorship fiasco. This too will pass and when they need the Liberal government - they will reward them with more seats if they deliver for Quebec.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:58:04 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:58
Foxer
Au contraire. They were completely set to do that till they thought the gov't was cutting arts funding.
So - no problems there it would seem. Lets face it - they would rather have a right wing prime minister who believes in leaving quebec to make it's own decisions than a liberal gov't that will try to tell them how to live.
It's really that simple - the majority of people are sick of liberal social experiments and social engineering. And there's enough of those people that the libs are done.
Quebec knows it can do whatever it's little socialist heart desires within it's own borders, as long as the feds don't try to intrude. Which is the smart way to do it - right wing federals keeping their hands off, left wing provinical party to do whatever social nonsense you feel like.
There isn't going to BE a liberal gov't - or a liberal party for that much longer either :)
And quebec can't put the libs in power even if there was. Those days are gone. Without the west, the handful of seats quebec has after the bloc is done simply don't matter much.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:22:26 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 21:22
suedo
As one who lives in Newfoundland and Labrador knows - this federation only works for two provinces. Yours is not one of them.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:28:03 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 21:28
Foxer
Traditionally no - confederation has not worked for bc very well. But we get by.
Hasn't done much for alberta or the praries either :)
But - like i said. Times are changing. For the first time in history the west has more votes than quebec and rivals ontario. And quebec is kind enough to spit it's votes thanks to the bloc.
So its starting to work out a lot better for us :) Pretty soon the east won't be able to elect a gov't without decent support in the west.
And the libs stand to be reduced to maybe 3 - 6 seats out this way.
Its a shame that your premier is choosing to absolutely alienate the party that's most likely going to be in power for most of this century. Bad choice if you ask me. I mean - he's REALLY trying to piss them off. I think nova scotia will get more goodies than newfoundland for the next little while anyway. I suspect confederation isn't going to work for you for a little while longer.
Which considering what the libs did to you might not be a bad thing. Getting left alone is actually a step up.
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:39:21 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 21:39
suedo
You really are very shallow - politically speaking - Newfoundland and Labrador should not support Harper to get "more goodies". Harper did as all PM's before him - he ignored the west and the east - his policies are geared toward Quebec and Ontario. He had the opportunity to bring the country together - he bailed.
[updated Sun Oct 12 08:10:56 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 08:10
Foxer
No they shouldn't. But they do.
Look at williams - bitching for more goodies when he knows the cpc treated newfoundland miles better than anyone has in generations. The deal kept the spirit of his promise and more, and the new deal is a sweetheart deal worth billions more than the old one.
Harper was MORE than generous with the east. Nova Scotia knew that - they didn't like some of the wording that COULD have caused grief but they came to the table like adults and pointed it out and things got changed till they were happy.
But danny wants more.
Don't tell me neufoundland isn't all about whatever they can get for themselves. Hell, bc isn't even ALLOWED to develop it's huge offshore oil reserves and you don't hear us bitching.
The fact is he's brought the country together more than any prime minister in decades. Newfoundland just thinks it's quebec and can whine and people will give whatever they decide they want. And they're not and it pisses danny off. Well too bad. Danny ain't going to be there forever and sooner or later the folks there are going to start to care more about getting crap done instead of showboating like a spoiled teen.
[updated Sun Oct 12 13:29:55 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 13:29
suedo
Do you have a train?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:01:37 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:01
Foxer
I've got a truck - and i know how much it costs to fill it and how much more it'll be after a new carbon tax. I bet a few people out that way are getting a good idea themselves. Any vehicles out your way use deisel? Boats, trucks, tractors? Anything like that?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:18:56 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:18
suedo
Do you have a train in your province?
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:21:54 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:21
Foxer
I notice you failed to answer my question.
Every province has rail. They mostly use diesel too.
Can you answer my question - or are you still living in denial.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:32:20 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:32
suedo
We do not.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:44:17 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:44
Foxer
Really. No boats, no trucks in your province, no tractors or farmers, nothing like that in your province.
Hmm. Methinks you're a bit of a fibber. But then - you're a liberal and we all know what liberals are.
[updated Sun Oct 12 16:46:47 -0400 2008]
12 Oct 16:46
larryl
You know very well Rae would never be considered for finance. Goodale or McCallum have more experience than the leprechaun and either one of them would do a better job than Flaherty. You also know Rae was in power during a recession brought on by 9 years of MULRONEY . Where is our former P.M. by the way? He is good enough to be an advisor but kept hidden during the campaign.
[updated Sat Oct 11 18:11:37 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 18:11
Foxer
Do i? Who knows what he'll do. Dion has to be concerned about daggers at his back of course.
And of course it's trite and childish to say mulroney 'brought on' the recession. The best any rational observer could say is he missed a possible chance to tone it down. It's no different than this recession - every 10 years or so canada is going to have an economic reversal. Some are slightly better, some are slightly worse, but as a rule the gov't doesn't cause them. It would be like trying to claim that Chretien is responsible for the tech meltdown around 2000.
What I do know is that rae's handling of the finances in the recession was horrible, and it made ontario's position much worse. The idea you can 'spend your way out of a recession' is simply insane.
Now we have another recession. And - once again we have Bob Rae on the scene. Like i said - people just aren't' that stupid.
As to mulroney - well that's the difference between dion and harper - harper is strong enough to stand on his own merit. Dion NEEDS to surround himself with people who were actually competent at something in order to hide the fact he is not.
[updated Sat Oct 11 18:32:01 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 18:32
larryl
If Dion Manages to win a minority the daggers will be put away in order to get cabinet appointments.The young guns like Trudeau , Kennedy,Bains and others will bide their time in order to be in a position to take over in 7 or 8 years. Of course if he loses he will probably resign as leader in the very near future.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:32:22 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:32
Foxer
Suuuuure - just like they were with chretien and paul martin right?
Don't kid yourself :) Dion will face a leadership challenge regardless.
And the 'young guns' are pea shooters compared to what they replace. I know - you hope that somehow the 'trudeau' name will bring back the glories of old. But that'll go about as well as paul martin bringing back what his father did.
The libs have lost their way. They're won't BE a liberal party in 7 or 8 years at this rate - they're going to be stone broke and the NDP will have overtaken them as the 'other' party in canada.
People are sick of liberal lies and intolerance.
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:38:29 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:38
larryl
You really amaze me at times. Martin was the only one who wanted Chretien's job after he lost the leadership contest. He was put into a very important cabinet post even when Jean knew that. It took him 10 years to stick the dagger in Chretien's back so why do you think Liberals do what the Conservatives are renowned for. They eat their leaders after a loss . The Liberals have always supported the guy who won for them and will do it again this time. Even in the long term outlook the Liberals have the advantage over the CPC. Any promising new faces in the Tory rank for 8 years down the road ?
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:04:16 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 21:04
Foxer
Are you on glue? Martin pushed chretien out the door - it was a bitter battle where chretien had to threaten to BRING HIS OWN GOV"T DOWN at one point to keep them in line!
Lots wanted the job - but everyone knew martin had already sewn it up and the fight created a division in the liberals that to this day has never healed.
And the liberals don't support guys who win minorities. Paul martin knew he had ONE more kick at the can when he was forced to a minority.
Dion couldn't even squeak a minority out of the dogs breakfast that harper made of this campaign - his worst by miles. They're going to toast him over a large fire first chance they get.
There's lots of talent in the CPC party, and it's growing with time as most parties do. But considering that in 8 years their main opposition will likely be the NDP, it's hard to say which will have the advantage.
Think trudeau will try for layton's job?
[updated Sat Oct 11 21:26:23 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 21:26
larryl
I don't see any names of up and coming young Conservatives. I thought you could come up with at least one but I guess not. You are right about the Liberal party . It was split by Martin and I told you before he did it for revenge. He was a wolf in sheep's clothing and he accomplished what he set out to do to the party.I now know why Martin was inept. It took him more than a decade to push Chretien out the door and he was exhausted after that struggle.
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:18:04 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 22:18
Foxer
There's too many to list. But really - we're not like the liberals. We don't 'crow' a prince years before hand. We let people stand on their own merits.
And no - the party was not split by martin. It was split by chretien fighting with martin before martin ever took over.
Either way - the party is dead. It's got no money and no real future. Trudeau is nothing like his father, and that whole sad little 'i can feel my father watching over me' routine simply isn't going to have any appeal for long.
You have to remember - trudeau is the number one hated prime minister of all time in the west. And Justin hasn't exactly been scoring good political points with his comments in quebec either.
Martin was inept because martin was inept. No other reason. The man was a ditherer.
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:27:39 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 22:27
larryl
I don't want the whole list. How about just the front runner for starters ? Maybe I can help .How about Pierre Poilievre. ? Another robot like creation of the CPC.
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:36:33 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 22:36
Foxer
Oh i think probably mackay would likely be a front runner for example. Smart guy, well liked and a lot more 'personable' than harper. Women like him more, and it would help bring the atlantics back into the cpc world.
He's got a lot of talent as well.
You on the other hand are going to get stuck with Rae i suspect - good luck selling that :)
[updated Sat Oct 11 22:58:33 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 22:58
larryl
Mackay had the job but was instructed by the power brokers to give it up in order to bring the PC Party back to life after Mulroney destroyed it. Many PC members were very upset with Peter for joining the reform wackos and will not soon forget that. The people of Nova Scotia know a lot more than the rest of the country about patronage and government contracts being awarded to the man who resigned his seat to get Lyin Brian into the house of commons after he won the leadership. I doubt Peter would have much of a chance in the rest of the country but at least you came up with one name.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:17:58 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 23:17
Foxer
I see you've stopped taking your medication again.
Mackay never had the job, and the power brokers insisted he make no deal with the alliance.
He went AGAINST their wishes.
The party are firmly behind the CPC. The only 'whakos' are those who were pretending to be conservative but weren't, and are now pretending to be liberal, where they fit in much better with the rest of the pretenders.
the people of nova scotia are sane, and willing to consider the cpc gov't. They understand it's important to have a voice in gov't, and that unlike the libs harper tends to reward that.
Peter would actually do quite well in the elections. My problem with him is that harper is a better economist and would likely run the country better. But - makay is still light years ahead of dion, who is a complete disaster. Or god help us all bob rae.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:57:02 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 23:57
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Keep that fantasy up and we''ll compare notes after Harper's concession speech late Tuesday night.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:06:34 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 23:06
Foxer
ROFL - that's the liberal spirit! If you don't like what's happening, then a pigheaded unwillingness to look facts in the face will always see you thru :)
We'll definitely compare notes on election night - as soon as i manage to stop laughing at you.
[updated Sat Oct 11 23:53:12 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 23:53
suedo
Very true Larry
[updated Sat Oct 11 20:17:33 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 20:17
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Lex Lewd........the data is soft that's why. the movement in votes will move from one party on the left to another. The tory vote can only go down % wise. Any more questions about data?
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:26:45 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 08:26
Non-aligned in Toronto
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content. I was quite amazed at the leadership numbers that show Layton as the choice of Best PM in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.
With the long weekend upon us, it'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the next couple of days. One thing I noted, which is HIGHLY unusual in a campaign is that the undecided numbers are rising in all areas of the country. This is quite contrary to a normal campaign where things solidify in the last week.
Could we be headed for a three horse race?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:09 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:31
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MichaelFox
It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this.
When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest, it will predict a gap of 10% between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
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Dear Nik, With your data you support we vote leader than party.
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
Jack Layton 63 (+6)
Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
Is this the highest a NDP leader has every polled? Party support is at 22% atm.
Thanks.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:38:29 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:38
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Bud the spud
This is really interesting. Today's numbers seem to reflect a reversal of the usual trend for soft NDP votes to break towards the Liberals at the end of a campaign.
I think we are witnessing a change in the 'yellow dog' component of the Liberal vote. Traditionally they could count on a number of people who would vote for a yellow dog in their riding if it appeared under the Liberal banner. It seems that this number shrank after the sponsorship scandal, and hasn't recovered since. While most of us expected that these voter would drift towards the Conservatives, it seems that they are more comfortable with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. Ironically it might benefit the Conservatives in seat counts, unless the shift his highly localized.
Speaking of the Conservatives, they seem to have their own version of the yellow dog phenomenon.Their vote is running just ahead of the yellow dog component of about 30 percent. Although their support seems to have stabilized, chances are that just over 30 percent is all that they can expect from the electorate.
Ironically for a party whose election strategy was to showcare their leader, Harper seems to be the weak link. He scores highest on the Prime minister scale and the leadership index, but his Prime ministerial ranking of 30 percent reflects almost entirely his base support, and his leadership index scores have actually started to run below that. The only thing that is keeping him in the lead right now is that the non-aligned voters split between three or four parties, depending on where you live in the country.
I've seen this play out on he local level: a friend is unimpressed with her local MP, and would like to vote for a stong Conservative candidate instead, but she can't stand Harper and does not want him in power. She's voting for a fringe candidate instead, which will probably help to elect the Liberal incumbent.
In the next few days, if the Thanksgiving conversations coalesce around one of another of the opposition leaders, we might have a very surprising result: a change in government. On the other hand, the vote could result in fewer voters for the Conservatives, but more seats. I can't wait.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:48:22 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:48
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Has the time arrived for the conservatives to look for a PC leader? Finding the right "right" might just help keep Canada in step with people around the globe.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:18:25 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:18
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
All right wingers. I need your help. When people take out a mortgage through CMHC does it include insurance. If the mortgage is not paid for whatever reason does the insurance pay the mortgage holder ,usually a bank, what is owed on the mortgage. If this is the case did Harper just bail out insurance companies who would have paid been forced to pay the many mortgages that unemployed people will soon default on. There are rules on how much of the equity you have in your home you can lose so is there any one out there who can fill us in on those rules. The bail out of the banks to the tune of 25 billon might just have been an insurance company bailout.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:59:23 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:59
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Just out, Ontario Court hears that Harper Tape from Cadmen affair was NOT altered, The Conservatives tried to keep this from being filed in Court until after the election but the court order experts who did the analysis, state that indeed it is authentic.
Here it is:
By Tim Naumetz, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert.
The analysis was filed in Ontario Superior Court on Friday by lawyers for the Liberal party, despite attempts by Harper's lawyer to keep the opinion out of the court file until at least next week.
Harper sued the Liberals in the midst of a raging controversy earlier this year over claims in a book by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk that Conservatives offered late MP Chuck Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy in return for help defeating the minority Liberal government in 2005.
The prime minister claims Zytaruk doctored the tape of an interview he conducted with Harper after Cadman died, and denies he told Zytaruk he was unaware of the "details" of the insurance policy offer.
Harper insists he only confirmed the party had offered Cadman "financial considerations" in return for rejoining the Tories and voting against the Liberals in a Commons confidence vote.
But former FBI agent Bruce Koenig, the sound expert Harper hired to prove his allegations, submitted a report dated Friday to Harper's lawyer, which also had to be sent to the Liberal lawyer, Chris Paliare, saying the contentious portion of the interview was uninterrupted.
Koenig said the first part of Zytaruk's interview with Harper, where the two had apparently discussed other aspects of Harper's relationship with Cadman, had been erased and over-recorded with the portion dealing with the insurance policy.
But that segment had not been altered, Koenig found.
He reported that it "contains neither physical nor electronic splices, edits or alterations, except for the over-recording start that erased and replaced the end of the first part of the designated interview."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081010/national/harper_cadman
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:34:59 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:34
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Cadman tape not altered as claimed by Harpercrite:
This should alert people about voting for the liar and briber.
" OTTAWA — A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal Party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Mr. Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Mr. Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wcadman1010/BNStory/National/home
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:46:43 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:46
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This is indeed a good sign.
I hope this trend holds as the Liberals shouldn't win because people are scarred of the Conservatives, and the NDP is deserving of every single seat they will win come the 14th.
[updated Fri Oct 10 21:48:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 21:48
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fjmadrid
Hi Nik, I believe that a pollster can obtain numbers, look at the statistical info and trends and I am fine with that. But to state that because there is a decline in numbers for the Conservatives, there will be less strategic voting is an assumption, which might influence voters and change the results. Which information from the numbers is telling you that there will be less strategic voting. I hope your analysis is not biased.
[updated Fri Oct 10 23:54:51 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 23:54
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Mike
Hi Nic
The polls will change in the liberal favour once Canadians realize the impact of the declaration that the recording of Steven Harper by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk have not been altered as claimed by Harper.
This means the leader of the Conservative party perjured himself during cross-examination by lawyer Paliare. It also confirms that Steven Harper was aware that the conservatives were attempting to bribe Chuck Cadman, another criminal offence. Add to this the in and out scheme and you have to start wondering why the R.C.M.P. have been so low key in their investigation. Could it be that being the first civilian commissioner in R.C.M.P. history, William Elliott is protecting his boss and his organisation, the Conservative party; instead of the government? Can there be another explanation why this is not being investigated, there is more than enough evidence to warrant one.
Harper is trying to steal another election in the same way he did in 2006; when commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli insisted on launching the fake investigation of Ralph Goodale.
Harper should not be running for Prime Minister he should be consulting his defence team to face criminal charges.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:19:52 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 01:19
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Just looked at the detailed break down and I'm happy to see the NDP way up in Atlantic Canada. I can't speak for the rest of the country but the CPC's refusal to show up at local debates probably hurt them a lot. I know that here in Fredericton there has been a lot of back lash about it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 09:51:12 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 09:51
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MAPSONBURT
Bets on Niks numbers for today?
I'm predicting:
Cons 36 (up 3)
Libs 25 (down 2)
NDP 22 (steady)
Bloc 9 (down 1)
Green 8 or 9 (Libs that can't bring themselves to vote Cons)
I think that the big swing will be in Quebec as they see the writing on the wall and go for power vs protest. Put up your predictions.
[updated Sat Oct 11 10:13:19 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 10:13
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WHERE THEY ARE TODAY
Where does a leader go?
To seats they can win?
Seats he's trying to save?
Harper – London, Guelph, Longueuil, Que.
Dion – Oakville, Newmarket, Vaughan (saving the furniture again Mississauga yesterday)
Layton – Montreal
May – Antigonish, New Glasgow, Westville, Pictou, N.S.
Duceppe – Dorion, Gatineau, Que.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/516045
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:41:15 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 12:41
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agnostic
Among the many questions posed by this election, the issue of how the NDP strategy of taxing corporations is going to help our current economics is one that is rising on the scale of importance. Layton doesn't explain how his economic theories will work to hold industry here in this country or how it will encourage new business opportunities. Instead, what I hear from him is one liner rhetorical feel good campaign slogans.
I have to say, in all honesty if that is all it takes to get your vote, stay away from bars. You would be easy pickings for the one liner artists.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:54:57 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 12:54
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Post-Steve
Interesting/amusing/biased that the most important attribute of leadership, recruiting and team building, is not mentioned at all. You cannot find any text on management or leadership where inspiring people with skills you don't have isn't the central goal of leadership. How about restating as:
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
* The most trustworthy leader
* The most competent leader
* The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
* The leader most capable of choosing excellent cabinet ministers
* The leader most capable of working with provincial, municipal and foreign leaders
* The leader most capable of co-operating with other parties in a minority parliament
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:37:42 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 13:37
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Bud the spud
One of the most surprising things in this campaign has been how badly the Conservatives have managed the Quebec file. They won a surprising number of seats there in 2006, and seemed poised for more gains this time, perhaps even enough to manufacture a majority. The BQ seemed all but dead, perhaps one more election away from joining the Creditistes as historical footnotes. Now the Conservatives are running third in the province, with a reseurgent BQ that might take even more seats than they did in 2006. Democracy Watch's latest projection has the Conservatives taking only six seats, and that was before Harper's hamhanded denunciation of Dion's interview fumble further angered Queceois. Milton Chan's Election Preduiction model rates Conservative chanes only slightly higher, at nine.
Now it seems likely that if the Conservatives form a government, it will be with just a handful of Quebec representatives, and these MPs will almost have to be put in cabinet, no matter how accident-prone they turn out to be.
More worrying than that prospect, however, is that the Conservative platform promises to reopen the constituional file to reform the senate. Quebec separatists must be salivating at the prospect of another constiutional debate with a strong BQ presence in the House. It seems as if the Mulroney years might be upon us again.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:40 -0400 2008]
11 Oct 14:10
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