As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally).
A few things to consider going into the final weekend of the campaign. First, if the Conservatives can pivot the focus of the election from themselves to Dion, it will serve them well. The reality is that as long as the Harper Tories drive support away from the Liberals (regardless of the final voter destination), it helps the Conservatives.
Because a Conservative majority win is unlikely at this time, the NDP will have a higher likelihood of holding on to their support because of less strategic voting.
For the Dion Liberals, they will likely battle to keep the focus on Harper to make him the ballot issue.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 8, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 27 (-2)
- NDP 22 (+2)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 8% (+1)
- Undecided 17% (+3)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,203,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 30% (-3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (NC)
- None of them 8% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (+2)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
- Jack Layton 63 (+6)
- Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
- Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Nik, Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview ... more
McMath (British Columbia) 10 Oct 14:26
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the... more
suedo (Newfoundland and Labrador) 10 Oct 14:30
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:26
I am not Conservative; I'm independent. It's fact not partisian. The tape is inc... more
novadog (Nova Scotia) 11 Oct 10:28
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs... more
Non-aligned in Toronto (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:31
Did you read the details of Nik`s poll today? It actually says that Conservativ... more
Darryl (Ontario) 10 Oct 14:39
Comments
Nik,
Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview that aired yesterday? Will the reactions from the parties have any impact on people's perceptions? If so, how important will this be to the final outcome on October 14th?
Thank you.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:15 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
It appears to have had a significant effect already. Dion's competence numbers took a big hit in these newest data.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:29:36 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:29
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-F08-T337E.pdf
30.9 of Liberals have NDP as the second vote.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-F08-T336.pdf
That explains it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:22 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
It looks like it has. If this was not just one of those blips, I assume the effect will be even more pronounced in tomorrow's poll. It's amazing how what would normally be a non-issue becomes a deciding factor in the last days of an election campaign.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:36:10 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:36
Lex Llewdor
I'm sure it would have been a non-issue. The biggest complaint about Martin was that he was indecisive. Mr. Dithers, remember. If the new guy is just the same, people will remember and equate them.
Indecisiveness is not usually a hugely negative quality, but I think it's a hugely negative quality for a Liberal leader in this election.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:42:03 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:42
It’s the new low in a snake’s belly of a campaign.
Liberal leader Stephane Dion misunderstands a complicated question and the Conservatives trot out leader Stephen Harper to declare it the definitive proof this Liberal leader is unfit to serve as prime minister. (Don Martin in the National Post, October 9, 2008)
“Day, who lived in Quebec as teenager, is desperate to improve his mediocre French so that the Alliance may broaden its appeal to Quebec voters. He was the first to admit yesterday that his French needs work and brushed off previous reports that tagged him as perfectly bilingual.” (Windsor Star, July 28, 2000)
“Mr. Day read carefully from a written French text. Even with the text, it was obvious within two minutes that any claims to bilingualism are seriously exaggerated.” (Paul Wells, National Post, April 1, 2000)
“Compounding Reform’s problem is that its leader can’t tell Quebecers his message in their language. Manning is unilingual. But he’s trying. He thanked those present for coming by reading from a prepared text in French - a halting, tortured dialect exacerbated by his natural nasal twang.” (Toronto Star, July 19, 1994)
They were kids, but they didn’t handle Reform Party Leader Preston Manning with kid gloves when he spoke yesterday at an all-girls’ private school.
Manning, who wants to run Canada’s proposed new right-wing political party, was asked in French about his notoriously poor skills in the language by a student during a stop at St. Clement’s school.”(Kingston Whig-Standard, March 11, 2000)
“Despite the appeal to posturing and sound-bite simplicity, the televised leaders’ debates sent one undeniable message: Reform leader Preston Manning is not worthy of being Canada’s next prime minister. Despite the appeals to a Fresh Start, which is his party’s campaign theme, he has personally not made a fresh start by still being unable to speak French. A modern leader of this nation cannot have such a liability. Forty years ago, Canadians could forgive John Diefenbaker’s famously tortured French. In 1997, such bilingual ineptitude in a national leader is inexcusable.” (Kingston Whig-Standard, May 15, 1997)
“But national public life happens in both languages. The federal government serves Canadians in both languages, and if you were a public servant, you would want to be evaluated in the official language you feel more comfortable in - which is one of the reasons senior government jobs require bilingualism. You would think that anyone who wanted to engage in national public life, as opposed to local or provincial public life, would learn both English and French.” (Toronto Star, October 20, 2002)
“It first became clear that Preston Manning’s campaign to win the leadership of the Canadian Alliance was in serious trouble during the candidates’ debate in Montreal. Manning’s composure was shaken by his inability to perform in French; he looked, for the first time, as if he thought he was losing. Stockwell Day, on the other hand, looked like a winner.” (Toronto Star, April 29, 2001)
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:01:19 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 17:01
Peggy
Why is "Mr. Dion if you were PM today what would you have done differently than Mr Harper with regards to the economy?" a complicated question. He answered much more difficult questions than that in the English debate and according to all libs did rather well. Or was he over rehearsed-because even after the 4th attempt he still didn't answer the question.He didn't know the answer-30/50 is what I got out of it????? If someone asked me that question in French slowly (and Steve sure slowed it down for him and accomodated him) I would understand the main meaning and I haven't touched french since 1st university 35 years ago.
The night before on Peter Mansbridge Peter said to him on 2 different questions that were sent in"Mr. Dion I think he/she deserves an answer to their question". Finally Peter said " I guess we'll have to leave it at that"
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:55:34 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 18:55
MRM
He was not only confused about the timeline, once he got that part he still started to answer by giving a confused answer on his 30/50 plan which is his poverty plan. He had it confused with his 30 day plan which is about the economy. Once he realized that he asked for a third start. This was after it had been expalined to him in French so had nothing to with language or hearing. He was confused. Perhaps due to being tired but hey running a country is a lot more taxing than a five week campaign. If he can't take this, he can't handle the country. Plain and simple.
[updated Sat Oct 11 08:11:28 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 08:11
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
If you think a one day drop of six points for the Liberals ,or any party, in Ontario is normal than keep on dreaming. That number should normalize by tomorrow.
The big news is that the Tories are not growing and that Lib support in BC is growing a lot based on a CTV poll earlier today.
I still think the NDP Quebec and Ontario numbers will drop closer in.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:50:37 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:50
Lex Llewdor
You can think whatever you'd like. The data disagree.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:02:06 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:02
prg
NDP numbers in Quebec will *not* fall significantly. you're dreaming, gohabs1. i think you resent the fact that the NDP are very popular in Quebec, especially in Montreal? i also think you tory partisans are dreaming to think that the Conservative plunge in Ontario is anything but authentic. things will even out a bit, but i am convinced that the decline has been very real.
as for the dion out-takes, i think they'll have only a minor impact in the end. because people who do not like Harper see it as a form of bullying, while Conservative supporters see it as more proof of what they've been saying all along about Dion. ergo, little change as a result.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:22:47 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 15:22
Peggy
Other times I would agree but this time CARBON TAX that NDP doesn't have is the key.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:56:53 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 18:56
prg
the NDP proposes cap and trade with strict caps and penalties on big polluters. the liberals propose a straight tax that i believe -- as loathe as i am to agree with the tories :) -- will hurt consumers and small and medium businesses. the liberal carbon tax is one of the party's biggest albatrosses, imo.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:35:24 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 01:35
HoldenCaulfield
I saw Jack Layton today agree that stumbling in an interview is normal, he disagreed with Dion's message but defended his stumble. Mr. Duceppe also defended the language based stumble and noted that people ought to hear what English Cabinet Ministers and Leaders sound like in French.
Harper of course and his band of supporters at the campaign stop who booed a reported, showed that he is a brute, a bully and lacks class.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:38:08 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:38
Mike
The Conservatives love to play in the gutter; the cheap shot by Harper using the ‘’blooper’’ of Stéphane Dion provided by C.T.V. is a good example. Canadians will see this, for the cheap trick it is and vote for the only party that can form a government that will lead Canada through these difficult times.
Stéphane Dion and the Liberal team will pick up the mess left by the conservatives once again, just like they have in the past.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:52:27 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 01:52
HoldenCaulfield
CTV also lacks integrity, Journalists learn early on that if you say something is off the record and then screw your subject over, that people won't trust you in the future. CTV climbed down into the gutter also and their Atlantic branch should be ashamed of itself.
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:06:39 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:06
Beckie
Why can't you all give Dion a break? I would much prefer a real person like Dion than a robot-like changeling like Harper! I would prefer to take my chances for the next 4 years with Stephane than with SH! And believe it or not, there are real people in this country who mess up at their jobs and come back and do a great job! So don't count Dion out!
[updated Mon Oct 13 19:48:45 EDT 2008]
13 Oct 19:48
Darryl
Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding by riding fights in most parts of Canada.
The recent liberal uptick is over.
Can the NDP hold and how many 3-way races will there be out there on Tuesday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:32 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:26
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suedo
I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the seat count by 0.
I wonder if the loss from the Libs side could have gone to the undecided - up 3
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:30:01 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:30
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Non-aligned in Toronto
Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content. I was quite amazed at the leadership numbers that show Layton as the choice of Best PM in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.
With the long weekend upon us, it'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the next couple of days. One thing I noted, which is HIGHLY unusual in a campaign is that the undecided numbers are rising in all areas of the country. This is quite contrary to a normal campaign where things solidify in the last week.
Could we be headed for a three horse race?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:09 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:31
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this.
When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest, it will predict a gap of 10% between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:04 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
14 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Dear Nik, With your data you support we vote leader than party.
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
Jack Layton 63 (+6)
Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)
Is this the highest a NDP leader has every polled? Party support is at 22% atm.
Thanks.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:38:29 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:38
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bud the spud
This is really interesting. Today's numbers seem to reflect a reversal of the usual trend for soft NDP votes to break towards the Liberals at the end of a campaign.
I think we are witnessing a change in the 'yellow dog' component of the Liberal vote. Traditionally they could count on a number of people who would vote for a yellow dog in their riding if it appeared under the Liberal banner. It seems that this number shrank after the sponsorship scandal, and hasn't recovered since. While most of us expected that these voter would drift towards the Conservatives, it seems that they are more comfortable with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. Ironically it might benefit the Conservatives in seat counts, unless the shift his highly localized.
Speaking of the Conservatives, they seem to have their own version of the yellow dog phenomenon.Their vote is running just ahead of the yellow dog component of about 30 percent. Although their support seems to have stabilized, chances are that just over 30 percent is all that they can expect from the electorate.
Ironically for a party whose election strategy was to showcare their leader, Harper seems to be the weak link. He scores highest on the Prime minister scale and the leadership index, but his Prime ministerial ranking of 30 percent reflects almost entirely his base support, and his leadership index scores have actually started to run below that. The only thing that is keeping him in the lead right now is that the non-aligned voters split between three or four parties, depending on where you live in the country.
I've seen this play out on he local level: a friend is unimpressed with her local MP, and would like to vote for a stong Conservative candidate instead, but she can't stand Harper and does not want him in power. She's voting for a fringe candidate instead, which will probably help to elect the Liberal incumbent.
In the next few days, if the Thanksgiving conversations coalesce around one of another of the opposition leaders, we might have a very surprising result: a change in government. On the other hand, the vote could result in fewer voters for the Conservatives, but more seats. I can't wait.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:48:22 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 14:48
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Has the time arrived for the conservatives to look for a PC leader? Finding the right "right" might just help keep Canada in step with people around the globe.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:18:25 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:18
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
All right wingers. I need your help. When people take out a mortgage through CMHC does it include insurance. If the mortgage is not paid for whatever reason does the insurance pay the mortgage holder ,usually a bank, what is owed on the mortgage. If this is the case did Harper just bail out insurance companies who would have paid been forced to pay the many mortgages that unemployed people will soon default on. There are rules on how much of the equity you have in your home you can lose so is there any one out there who can fill us in on those rules. The bail out of the banks to the tune of 25 billon might just have been an insurance company bailout.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:59:23 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 19:59
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Just out, Ontario Court hears that Harper Tape from Cadmen affair was NOT altered, The Conservatives tried to keep this from being filed in Court until after the election but the court order experts who did the analysis, state that indeed it is authentic.
Here it is:
By Tim Naumetz, The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert.
The analysis was filed in Ontario Superior Court on Friday by lawyers for the Liberal party, despite attempts by Harper's lawyer to keep the opinion out of the court file until at least next week.
Harper sued the Liberals in the midst of a raging controversy earlier this year over claims in a book by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk that Conservatives offered late MP Chuck Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy in return for help defeating the minority Liberal government in 2005.
The prime minister claims Zytaruk doctored the tape of an interview he conducted with Harper after Cadman died, and denies he told Zytaruk he was unaware of the "details" of the insurance policy offer.
Harper insists he only confirmed the party had offered Cadman "financial considerations" in return for rejoining the Tories and voting against the Liberals in a Commons confidence vote.
But former FBI agent Bruce Koenig, the sound expert Harper hired to prove his allegations, submitted a report dated Friday to Harper's lawyer, which also had to be sent to the Liberal lawyer, Chris Paliare, saying the contentious portion of the interview was uninterrupted.
Koenig said the first part of Zytaruk's interview with Harper, where the two had apparently discussed other aspects of Harper's relationship with Cadman, had been erased and over-recorded with the portion dealing with the insurance policy.
But that segment had not been altered, Koenig found.
He reported that it "contains neither physical nor electronic splices, edits or alterations, except for the over-recording start that erased and replaced the end of the first part of the designated interview."
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081010/national/harper_cadman
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:34:59 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:34
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Cadman tape not altered as claimed by Harpercrite:
This should alert people about voting for the liar and briber.
" OTTAWA — A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal Party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Mr. Harper's own audio expert has found.
The key portion of the recorded interview of Mr. Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wcadman1010/BNStory/National/home
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:46:43 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 20:46
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
This is indeed a good sign.
I hope this trend holds as the Liberals shouldn't win because people are scarred of the Conservatives, and the NDP is deserving of every single seat they will win come the 14th.
[updated Fri Oct 10 21:48:05 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 21:48
21 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fjmadrid
Hi Nik, I believe that a pollster can obtain numbers, look at the statistical info and trends and I am fine with that. But to state that because there is a decline in numbers for the Conservatives, there will be less strategic voting is an assumption, which might influence voters and change the results. Which information from the numbers is telling you that there will be less strategic voting. I hope your analysis is not biased.
[updated Fri Oct 10 23:54:51 EDT 2008]
10 Oct 23:54
15 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike
Hi Nic
The polls will change in the liberal favour once Canadians realize the impact of the declaration that the recording of Steven Harper by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk have not been altered as claimed by Harper.
This means the leader of the Conservative party perjured himself during cross-examination by lawyer Paliare. It also confirms that Steven Harper was aware that the conservatives were attempting to bribe Chuck Cadman, another criminal offence. Add to this the in and out scheme and you have to start wondering why the R.C.M.P. have been so low key in their investigation. Could it be that being the first civilian commissioner in R.C.M.P. history, William Elliott is protecting his boss and his organisation, the Conservative party; instead of the government? Can there be another explanation why this is not being investigated, there is more than enough evidence to warrant one.
Harper is trying to steal another election in the same way he did in 2006; when commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli insisted on launching the fake investigation of Ralph Goodale.
Harper should not be running for Prime Minister he should be consulting his defence team to face criminal charges.
[updated Sat Oct 11 01:19:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 01:19
27 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Just looked at the detailed break down and I'm happy to see the NDP way up in Atlantic Canada. I can't speak for the rest of the country but the CPC's refusal to show up at local debates probably hurt them a lot. I know that here in Fredericton there has been a lot of back lash about it.
[updated Sat Oct 11 09:51:12 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 09:51
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MAPSONBURT
Bets on Niks numbers for today?
I'm predicting:
Cons 36 (up 3)
Libs 25 (down 2)
NDP 22 (steady)
Bloc 9 (down 1)
Green 8 or 9 (Libs that can't bring themselves to vote Cons)
I think that the big swing will be in Quebec as they see the writing on the wall and go for power vs protest. Put up your predictions.
[updated Sat Oct 11 10:13:19 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 10:13
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
WHERE THEY ARE TODAY
Where does a leader go?
To seats they can win?
Seats he's trying to save?
Harper – London, Guelph, Longueuil, Que.
Dion – Oakville, Newmarket, Vaughan (saving the furniture again Mississauga yesterday)
Layton – Montreal
May – Antigonish, New Glasgow, Westville, Pictou, N.S.
Duceppe – Dorion, Gatineau, Que.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/516045
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:41:15 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:41
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
agnostic
Among the many questions posed by this election, the issue of how the NDP strategy of taxing corporations is going to help our current economics is one that is rising on the scale of importance. Layton doesn't explain how his economic theories will work to hold industry here in this country or how it will encourage new business opportunities. Instead, what I hear from him is one liner rhetorical feel good campaign slogans.
I have to say, in all honesty if that is all it takes to get your vote, stay away from bars. You would be easy pickings for the one liner artists.
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:54:57 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:54
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Post-Steve
Interesting/amusing/biased that the most important attribute of leadership, recruiting and team building, is not mentioned at all. You cannot find any text on management or leadership where inspiring people with skills you don't have isn't the central goal of leadership. How about restating as:
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
* The most trustworthy leader
* The most competent leader
* The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
* The leader most capable of choosing excellent cabinet ministers
* The leader most capable of working with provincial, municipal and foreign leaders
* The leader most capable of co-operating with other parties in a minority parliament
[updated Sat Oct 11 13:37:42 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 13:37
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bud the spud
One of the most surprising things in this campaign has been how badly the Conservatives have managed the Quebec file. They won a surprising number of seats there in 2006, and seemed poised for more gains this time, perhaps even enough to manufacture a majority. The BQ seemed all but dead, perhaps one more election away from joining the Creditistes as historical footnotes. Now the Conservatives are running third in the province, with a reseurgent BQ that might take even more seats than they did in 2006. Democracy Watch's latest projection has the Conservatives taking only six seats, and that was before Harper's hamhanded denunciation of Dion's interview fumble further angered Queceois. Milton Chan's Election Preduiction model rates Conservative chanes only slightly higher, at nine.
Now it seems likely that if the Conservatives form a government, it will be with just a handful of Quebec representatives, and these MPs will almost have to be put in cabinet, no matter how accident-prone they turn out to be.
More worrying than that prospect, however, is that the Conservative platform promises to reopen the constituional file to reform the senate. Quebec separatists must be salivating at the prospect of another constiutional debate with a strong BQ presence in the House. It seems as if the Mulroney years might be upon us again.
[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:40 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 14:10
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