CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 9)

Nik,

Do you expect any significant fallout from Dion's "fumbled" ATV interview that aired yesterday? Will the reactions from the parties have any impact on people's perceptions? If so, how important will this be to the final outcome on October 14th?

Thank you.

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:15 -0400 2008]

Well I think all the poll numbers are converging and now it comes down to riding by riding fights in most parts of Canada.

The recent liberal uptick is over.

Can the NDP hold and how many 3-way races will there be out there on Tuesday.

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:26:32 -0400 2008]

I know Conservatives are gaining significantly in Alberta - that will change the seat count by 0.
I wonder if the loss from the Libs side could have gone to the undecided - up 3

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:30:01 -0400 2008]

Since I am supporting the NDP in this election, I can only say that let the Libs and Cons attack each other to their heart's content. I was quite amazed at the leadership numbers that show Layton as the choice of Best PM in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.

With the long weekend upon us, it'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the next couple of days. One thing I noted, which is HIGHLY unusual in a campaign is that the undecided numbers are rising in all areas of the country. This is quite contrary to a normal campaign where things solidify in the last week.

Could we be headed for a three horse race?

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:31:09 -0400 2008]

It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this.

When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest, it will predict a gap of 10% between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:04 -0400 2008]

Dear Nik, With your data you support we vote leader than party.

[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]

Stephen Harper 76 (-6)
Jack Layton 63 (+6)
Stephane Dion 50 (-9)
Elizabeth May 21 (+1)
Gilles Duceppe 16 (-5)

Is this the highest a NDP leader has every polled? Party support is at 22% atm.

Thanks.

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:38:29 -0400 2008]

This is really interesting. Today's numbers seem to reflect a reversal of the usual trend for soft NDP votes to break towards the Liberals at the end of a campaign.
I think we are witnessing a change in the 'yellow dog' component of the Liberal vote. Traditionally they could count on a number of people who would vote for a yellow dog in their riding if it appeared under the Liberal banner. It seems that this number shrank after the sponsorship scandal, and hasn't recovered since. While most of us expected that these voter would drift towards the Conservatives, it seems that they are more comfortable with the NDP and to a lesser extent the Greens. Ironically it might benefit the Conservatives in seat counts, unless the shift his highly localized.
Speaking of the Conservatives, they seem to have their own version of the yellow dog phenomenon.Their vote is running just ahead of the yellow dog component of about 30 percent. Although their support seems to have stabilized, chances are that just over 30 percent is all that they can expect from the electorate.
Ironically for a party whose election strategy was to showcare their leader, Harper seems to be the weak link. He scores highest on the Prime minister scale and the leadership index, but his Prime ministerial ranking of 30 percent reflects almost entirely his base support, and his leadership index scores have actually started to run below that. The only thing that is keeping him in the lead right now is that the non-aligned voters split between three or four parties, depending on where you live in the country.
I've seen this play out on he local level: a friend is unimpressed with her local MP, and would like to vote for a stong Conservative candidate instead, but she can't stand Harper and does not want him in power. She's voting for a fringe candidate instead, which will probably help to elect the Liberal incumbent.
In the next few days, if the Thanksgiving conversations coalesce around one of another of the opposition leaders, we might have a very surprising result: a change in government. On the other hand, the vote could result in fewer voters for the Conservatives, but more seats. I can't wait.

[updated Fri Oct 10 14:48:22 -0400 2008]

Has the time arrived for the conservatives to look for a PC leader? Finding the right "right" might just help keep Canada in step with people around the globe.

[updated Fri Oct 10 19:18:25 -0400 2008]

All right wingers. I need your help. When people take out a mortgage through CMHC does it include insurance. If the mortgage is not paid for whatever reason does the insurance pay the mortgage holder ,usually a bank, what is owed on the mortgage. If this is the case did Harper just bail out insurance companies who would have paid been forced to pay the many mortgages that unemployed people will soon default on. There are rules on how much of the equity you have in your home you can lose so is there any one out there who can fill us in on those rules. The bail out of the banks to the tune of 25 billon might just have been an insurance company bailout.

[updated Fri Oct 10 19:59:23 -0400 2008]

Just out, Ontario Court hears that Harper Tape from Cadmen affair was NOT altered, The Conservatives tried to keep this from being filed in Court until after the election but the court order experts who did the analysis, state that indeed it is authentic.

Here it is:
By Tim Naumetz, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA - A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Harper's own audio expert has found.

The key portion of the recorded interview of Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert.

The analysis was filed in Ontario Superior Court on Friday by lawyers for the Liberal party, despite attempts by Harper's lawyer to keep the opinion out of the court file until at least next week.

Harper sued the Liberals in the midst of a raging controversy earlier this year over claims in a book by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk that Conservatives offered late MP Chuck Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy in return for help defeating the minority Liberal government in 2005.

The prime minister claims Zytaruk doctored the tape of an interview he conducted with Harper after Cadman died, and denies he told Zytaruk he was unaware of the "details" of the insurance policy offer.

Harper insists he only confirmed the party had offered Cadman "financial considerations" in return for rejoining the Tories and voting against the Liberals in a Commons confidence vote.

But former FBI agent Bruce Koenig, the sound expert Harper hired to prove his allegations, submitted a report dated Friday to Harper's lawyer, which also had to be sent to the Liberal lawyer, Chris Paliare, saying the contentious portion of the interview was uninterrupted.

Koenig said the first part of Zytaruk's interview with Harper, where the two had apparently discussed other aspects of Harper's relationship with Cadman, had been erased and over-recorded with the portion dealing with the insurance policy.

But that segment had not been altered, Koenig found.

He reported that it "contains neither physical nor electronic splices, edits or alterations, except for the over-recording start that erased and replaced the end of the first part of the designated interview."

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081010/national/harper_cadman

[updated Fri Oct 10 20:34:59 -0400 2008]

Cadman tape not altered as claimed by Harpercrite:

This should alert people about voting for the liar and briber.

" OTTAWA — A tape recording at the centre of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's $3.5-million defamation suit against the Liberal Party was not altered as the prime minister has claimed, a court-ordered analysis of the tape by Mr. Harper's own audio expert has found.

The key portion of the recorded interview of Mr. Harper by a B.C. journalist contains no splices, edits or alterations, says the finding by a U.S. forensic audio expert."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wcadman1010/BNStory/National/home

[updated Fri Oct 10 20:46:43 -0400 2008]

This is indeed a good sign.

I hope this trend holds as the Liberals shouldn't win because people are scarred of the Conservatives, and the NDP is deserving of every single seat they will win come the 14th.

[updated Fri Oct 10 21:48:05 -0400 2008]

Hi Nik, I believe that a pollster can obtain numbers, look at the statistical info and trends and I am fine with that. But to state that because there is a decline in numbers for the Conservatives, there will be less strategic voting is an assumption, which might influence voters and change the results. Which information from the numbers is telling you that there will be less strategic voting. I hope your analysis is not biased.

[updated Fri Oct 10 23:54:51 -0400 2008]

Hi Nic

The polls will change in the liberal favour once Canadians realize the impact of the declaration that the recording of Steven Harper by B.C. author Tom Zytaruk have not been altered as claimed by Harper.
This means the leader of the Conservative party perjured himself during cross-examination by lawyer Paliare. It also confirms that Steven Harper was aware that the conservatives were attempting to bribe Chuck Cadman, another criminal offence. Add to this the in and out scheme and you have to start wondering why the R.C.M.P. have been so low key in their investigation. Could it be that being the first civilian commissioner in R.C.M.P. history, William Elliott is protecting his boss and his organisation, the Conservative party; instead of the government? Can there be another explanation why this is not being investigated, there is more than enough evidence to warrant one.

Harper is trying to steal another election in the same way he did in 2006; when commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli insisted on launching the fake investigation of Ralph Goodale.

Harper should not be running for Prime Minister he should be consulting his defence team to face criminal charges.

[updated Sat Oct 11 01:19:52 -0400 2008]

Just looked at the detailed break down and I'm happy to see the NDP way up in Atlantic Canada. I can't speak for the rest of the country but the CPC's refusal to show up at local debates probably hurt them a lot. I know that here in Fredericton there has been a lot of back lash about it.

[updated Sat Oct 11 09:51:12 -0400 2008]

Bets on Niks numbers for today?

I'm predicting:
Cons 36 (up 3)
Libs 25 (down 2)
NDP 22 (steady)
Bloc 9 (down 1)
Green 8 or 9 (Libs that can't bring themselves to vote Cons)

I think that the big swing will be in Quebec as they see the writing on the wall and go for power vs protest. Put up your predictions.

[updated Sat Oct 11 10:13:19 -0400 2008]

WHERE THEY ARE TODAY

Where does a leader go?

To seats they can win?
Seats he's trying to save?

Harper – London, Guelph, Longueuil, Que.

Dion – Oakville, Newmarket, Vaughan (saving the furniture again Mississauga yesterday)

Layton – Montreal

May – Antigonish, New Glasgow, Westville, Pictou, N.S.

Duceppe – Dorion, Gatineau, Que.

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/516045

[updated Sat Oct 11 12:41:15 -0400 2008]

Among the many questions posed by this election, the issue of how the NDP strategy of taxing corporations is going to help our current economics is one that is rising on the scale of importance. Layton doesn't explain how his economic theories will work to hold industry here in this country or how it will encourage new business opportunities. Instead, what I hear from him is one liner rhetorical feel good campaign slogans.

I have to say, in all honesty if that is all it takes to get your vote, stay away from bars. You would be easy pickings for the one liner artists.

[updated Sat Oct 11 12:54:57 -0400 2008]

Interesting/amusing/biased that the most important attribute of leadership, recruiting and team building, is not mentioned at all. You cannot find any text on management or leadership where inspiring people with skills you don't have isn't the central goal of leadership. How about restating as:

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

* The most trustworthy leader
* The most competent leader
* The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
* The leader most capable of choosing excellent cabinet ministers
* The leader most capable of working with provincial, municipal and foreign leaders
* The leader most capable of co-operating with other parties in a minority parliament

[updated Sat Oct 11 13:37:42 -0400 2008]

One of the most surprising things in this campaign has been how badly the Conservatives have managed the Quebec file. They won a surprising number of seats there in 2006, and seemed poised for more gains this time, perhaps even enough to manufacture a majority. The BQ seemed all but dead, perhaps one more election away from joining the Creditistes as historical footnotes. Now the Conservatives are running third in the province, with a reseurgent BQ that might take even more seats than they did in 2006. Democracy Watch's latest projection has the Conservatives taking only six seats, and that was before Harper's hamhanded denunciation of Dion's interview fumble further angered Queceois. Milton Chan's Election Preduiction model rates Conservative chanes only slightly higher, at nine.
Now it seems likely that if the Conservatives form a government, it will be with just a handful of Quebec representatives, and these MPs will almost have to be put in cabinet, no matter how accident-prone they turn out to be.
More worrying than that prospect, however, is that the Conservative platform promises to reopen the constituional file to reform the senate. Quebec separatists must be salivating at the prospect of another constiutional debate with a strong BQ presence in the House. It seems as if the Mulroney years might be upon us again.

[updated Sat Oct 11 14:10:40 -0400 2008]