This evening on CPAC I will be blogging live likely after 830 pm EST. Post your question in this topic.
The new normal in this campaign is a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The margin between the two parties continues to be a scant four percentage points. There are a number of key trends to watch. First, NDP support in Quebec is on the move upwards as BQ and Liberal support is sliding. Regardless, the BQ still holds a commanding 23 point lead. The Liberals lead the Conservatives in battleground Ontario by 11 points and the Tory support in the West has hit 50%.
A look at the regional numbers shows a clear division in the views of Canadians. The West, for all intents and purposes, has embraced Stephen Harper and Tory support has improved. While Conservative support in the West has improved, it has declined in all other regions of the country. If this trend continues, my sense is that this election may re-ignite Western discontent and alienation.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 7, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,031, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (NC)
- Liberal Party 29 (NC)
- NDP 20 (NC)
- BQ 10% (-1)
- Green Party 7% (NC)
- Undecided 14% (-1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (NC)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (+1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 7% (NC)
- Unsure 13% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 82 (-7)
- Stephane Dion 59 (+9)
- Jack Layton 57 (+1)
- Gilles Duceppe 21 (+5)
- Elizabeth May 20 (-1)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
The polls are very similar to yesterday, which probably means the Conservative s... more
tiredandjaded (Ontario) 09 Oct 14:01
My concern is that soft Dippers and Greens will flock to the Liberal... more
Worried Tory (Nova Scotia) 09 Oct 14:25
A call for civility... Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we'r... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 09 Oct 14:07
MichaelFox - This is a good example of those on the far left who do not know how... more
MRM (Manitoba) 10 Oct 13:19
So did i apperently - it's actually 5 days and closing :)... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 09 Oct 20:30
Yeah - but he never looks good when he's whining. ... more
Foxer (British Columbia) 10 Oct 13:34
Comments
tiredandjaded
The polls are very similar to yesterday, which probably means the Conservative slide has stopped.
In order for the Liberals to win they will need to take votes away from the other parties now, as they've probably gotten all they can from the Conservatives.
With very little time left in the election campaign it looks like a slim Tory minority.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:01:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:01
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Reporters are starting to ask Dion tougher questions on the substance of the things he is saying. He obviously doesn`t have any real plan for the economic issues facing us the last few weeks.
I think that over the remaining days, people will smarten up and realize they don`t want to elect Prime Minister Dion.
People have overreacted mostly because we all see our stock portfolios going down. Reality is likely to set back in and things will swing back to some degree. It looks like mostly a status quo result in this election today to what we had before it was called.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:06:51 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:06
Gordo05
I agree to a point, Darryl. But I was intrigued by Nik's suggestion that the polarization of the CPC's support in Western Canada might just lead to a new kind of western alienation. It would be an understatement to suggest that that will be very bad for the country. So, while the distribution of the number of seats in the House of Commons may be status quo, as you suggest, the feeling of resentment and 'what was it all for, anyway?' may well bubble up and boil over into a new kind of resentment expressed from the west that could result in more isolation - perhaps even a very real firewall. Our country is fractured and broken. We need a leader to bring us back together again. Unfortunately, what this election may tell us is that we have to keep looking for that leader - because it is obvious that it isn't Harper nor Dion.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:34:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:34
waynorth
Immediately after the 1980 election which saw Trudeau and the Liberals capture 44% of the poular vote and win 147 of parliament's then 282 seats he faced a dilemma. Even though they had polled almost 25% of Western Canadian votes the Liberals didn't win a single seat west of Winnipeg.
Obvioulsy, a Liberal majority with no western seats ignited western rage...just as I'm sure it would today - if not even to a greater degree. Facing such a country-splitting dilemma Trudeau invited NDP leader Ed Broadbent to his office for a chat. The NDP had captured 26 of its 32 seats in Western Canada with about 33% of the vote. Trudeau offered to introduce legislation for proportional representation if the NDP would co-sponsor it. According to well-placed sources, Broadbent said he would take the proposal to his caucus. The answer was no. Broadbent told the prime minister NDP MPs were afraid of losing their seats. Trudeau declined to forge ahead alone."
Such is the nature of our current first-past-the-post means of electing government. As noted eleswhere, such a system "not only undermine(s) democratic legitimacy and suppress turnout, they rupture the bonds holding the country together, artificially fomenting regional alienation and fracturing national unity."
Twenty-eight years later I'm afraid we're about to be faced with the same dilemma as Trudeau. For me, the obvious solution is some form of proportional representation. This is probably even more urgent today with the BQ pretty much taking Quebec's 75 seats with only 8% of the total popular vote, yet gaining defacto control over the entire parliament - a parliament they have no desire to see work to CANADA'S benefit.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:06:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:06
Lex Llewdor
Proportional representation leads to more minorities and bigger government. The Fraser Institute actually released a study on that - they looked at countries that adopted proportional representation and examined what happened afterward.
Also, I like majority governments. Majority governments are the only government ables to enact unpopular legislation.
Plus, these regional differences are important. We're not a homogenous nation; our politics should reflect that. That the first-past-the-post system highlights our regional differences is a positive trait.
National unity doesn't have any intrinsic value. Really, what do we get from being "Canadian"?
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:34:18 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:34
wyly
Fraser Institute-I'm sorry I hear the name and I turn off, they're predictable extreme right wing nut jobs you'd gain more credibility quoting wikipedia....I love democracy and further right you lean the less democracy you get....
the system we have now is cherished by those who crave power and don't want to give a voice to opposing opinions....millions of Canadians are denied a voice in government by our present system
first past the post gives the impression that there are regional differences that some wish to exploit....50% of western voters conservative so there must be regional discontent but 50% don't vote conservative but they're not a factor? how is pitting one region of canada against another a positive trait...I'm a Canadian first and last I just happen to live in Alberta...
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:20:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:20
Lex Llewdor
The Fraser Institute is economists. All they do is measure stuff. In the '80s they supported publicly funded abortions because unwanted children are bad for the economy. They (just a few years ago) supported the legalisation and regulation of the marijuana industry.
That's hardly far right.
They're the people who told us we had waiting lists for healthcare (because they measured them). They give financial awards to public schools that perform well. They award scholarships to financially disadvantaged families (childrenfirstgrants.ca).
That's hardly far right.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:36:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:36
HoldenCaulfield
I have read this also, and I understand that Broadbent considered the proposal. That would be because Broadbent was a real leader, and honourable man.
The NDP alienates its own supporters with their dogged determination that they are going to displace the Liberals as the progressive party of choice. If Tommy Douglas, David Lewis and Ed Broadbent couldn't do that, I assure you that Jack and his canned nonsense about a new kind of strong aren't going to do it.
I agree with you that we need to look a form of representation that remedies the increasing regionalism. Why on earth would be we be better off on our own, we wouldn't, provinces would end up gobbled up in the US union or unable to cope when a resource runs out or during bad times. Remember, times are bad in Ontario right now, but it had been the economic engine of the country until recently.
Minority Governments can work, the Kingdom of the Netherlands has had only minority coalitions since the late 1950's, and they have a stable country. It means compromise however.
This election may be a lesson for Harper that calling an election without cause is not good. There was no need to call this election, except to catch Stephane Dion and the Liberals unprepared. Voters see through that sort of stuff.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:26:20 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:26
Lex Llewdor
Unprepared? Who didn't see this election coming months away?
If by unprepared you mean broke, then yes, but that wouldn't have changed by waiting for the spring.
I suspect Harper was trying to get the election done before the US financial collapse.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:01:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:01
Foxer
Dion's been saying for over a year they were 100 percent ready for an election. And he spend all summer campaigning on the green shift. If he didn't think there was an election on the horizion and wasn't prepared, he's a bit of an idiot.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:28:58 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:28
Lex Llewdor
That firewall would be good for Canadians. The regions and provinces should be left to govern themselves without all this interference from Ottawa.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:08:26 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:08
psiclone
I tend to agree though I favour Harper. Dion definitely is out as far as us out west feel and the LPC party has done nothing to try to bring us back in ... from the very beginning all of Dion's speeches and public events are nothing but bad mouthing the PM and if there is any real question about the carbon tax he starts waving his little green book around saying it's a shift not a tax - does the LPC really take us to be fools ... well in either event we are running them out of town so to speak time for a little western justice. Things are going to get interesting and that's for sure.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:42:44 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:42
Peggy
I agree-last night I watched Peter Mansbridge interview Dion and tell him at least twice-"Ok you haven't answered the question"
And Mike Duffy last night must have repeated at least three times in his 2 shows "But Dion hasn't cancelled his Carbon Tax yet has he" almost feeling the need to remind voters why he was down to begin with. I think the media was bored and wanted a good fight-they now have that and they are easing off as they don't really want Dion in the end-they wanted the ratings.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:14:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:14
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Peggy, unfortunately Peggy Dion doesn't fall for the trick questions. If they asked the question about tax shifting he will give them the right answer as he did to lloyd Robertson the other night. Your bias in calling it a tax without mentioning the fact he will cut income taxes to match is pretty much the comments of the angry tories we see a tthe doors in my ridings. Those that are not hard right wingers appear to be able to understand it.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:06:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:06
Lex Llewdor
Personally, I'd be helped tremendously by Dion's carbon tax.
I don't own a car. I walk to work. I walk to the grocery store. I earn more than the average Canadian. Reducing my income taxes would help me far more than the carbon tax would hurt.
But it's bad policy.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:59:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:59
Foxer
And unfortunately the income tax cuts DON'T offset the increased costs. Dion doesn't factor in things like the fact that even you lex will pay more for the goods and groceries you buy - they all come by truck and the costs will have to be passed on. That's just one example of many.
Some people may benefit (you sound like you may be one of the lucky ones, depending how you heat your home and such) but MOST people will have LESS money at the end of the day.
And that hurts the economy.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:31:57 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:31
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
As usual you are not looking at the full Picture. The Liberals are moving up in the west obviously in BC mostly and they have good numbers in the maritimes and Ontario. I think Niks quebec number today for the libs will show as an aberration by tomorrow as thye are not going down by 3% with the NDP and Bloc both up by 3% in one day. The Libs are mor likely at 24 to 25% in Quebec and the cons slightly higher than their poll there today.
Overall I believe this is now much closer than today's numbers are showing. Dion's personal numbers are moving up and that will bring back more disaffected Liberals and move some NDP votes over. The Greens have already started their migration to the Libs. The vote is till quite fluid in Quebec where people are most likely to change their votes. Remember that 8% of all voters only decide their voting intention at the ballot box. That becomes a big number in this election
One other thing that makes me believe this is even closer is the fact that Harper released his program two days ago and that should have helped him but only appears to have slowed his downward march. The Libs are now moving to get the soft voters for the first time in this election while the tories have been chasing that vote since day one.
I expect that by Saturday it will be much different again and as Sunday will be the last day polls can be published it will be a nail biter form then to late Tuesday night west coast time.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:17:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:17
Darryl
The Prime Minister didn`t release his program 2 days ago. He has been releasing all of his plans and promises every day of this campaign.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:25:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:25
Mike Stokes
a small minority government is the worst thing for the Canadian markets...watch them tumble even more Oct 15. ...the dirty 30's will look like a day at the beach by next spring.
and the endless cycle of Federal Elections will continue.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:07:14 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:07
DGoodchild
With both the new Listeria news and the news that Mr. Harper's $8B estimate on the cost of Afganistan was way off still to take effect in the polls, I suspect a new Conservative slide is on the way.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the latest Listeria news is Mr. Harper's fault, but it will serve to remind the country of the original outbreak which I believe will be bad for the Prime Minister.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:16:49 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:16
Darryl
So the stock markets falling and lysteria outbreaks at sliced ham plants are all Prime Minister Harper`s fault? So when the stock market goes up is it all to the credit of the Prime Minister? Is everyone really believing that?
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:19:54 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:19
DGoodchild
There's a good chance that the listeria outbreaks were at least partly his fault due to cutbacks in food inspection, yes. The stock market, no - not his fault. The inability to accurately estimate how much the Afganistan mission will cost, yes - absolutely his fault; he's the trained economist after all.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:36:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:36
MichaelFox
I thought that the original estimate on Afghanistan was the cost to date, whereas the estimate that came out today was the total cost through to the end of the mission.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:39:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:39
DGoodchild
Hmm... now you've made me wonder. If that is the case then his estimate is with the range given by the report.... need to check the details on that...
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:46:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:46
Lex Llewdor
I think Michael's right.
Harper is a very good economist. He's an indifferent politician, but he's a very good economist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:09:23 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:09
larryl
Lex. You would think he could at least help his own mother but he is using her as an example of people losing money. Maybe you could tell us exactly what a good economist is. He has never actually held a job as an economist unless you consider the head of the National Citizen's Coalition to be an economist. Is a degree from U. of C. all you need to call yourself an economist. My dictionary defines it as an economical or thrifty person . That means I qualify as an economist since I am so cheap. Who knew ?
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:11:09 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:11
Lex Llewdor
Two degrees. From a good economics school (I would say that Simon Fraser University is the best economics school in Canada, but Calgary is very good).
But mostly I base my impression of his economics skills on conversations with the man.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:16:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:16
larryl
Lex. Are you another of the Calgary School boys? I am surprised you have such high regard for an easterner. He has lived in Ontario for more than half his life. I didn't think that just moving to the west was enough to make one a westerner but since his hero Bush became a Texan when he was born in Connecticut it would make sense for Steve to claim to be an Albertan. I suppose it could be good enough to talk about economics but I would prefer somebody with some real experience at the job . Speech writing for Deb Grey does not impress me much as an economist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:52:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:52
tiredandjaded
Having a degree from a good school does not make you that position.
I have a journalism degree from Ryerson University. Most would agree that Ryerson has a very good journalism program.
I am not a journalist.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:54:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:54
Darryl
Yes the government seemed to be right on target with their estimate even though the CBC today is trying to say they were off my $10 billion. The government estimate was for $8 billion spent so far. The report said today that the money spent so far was from $7.7 billion to $10.5 billion. The $18 billion number includes 3 more years of spending that the government didn`t include in their estimates.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:11:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:11
DGoodchild
Actually, you're comparing apples to oranges.
The Conservatives said that the $8B estimate was the total cost.
The report released by Mr. Page states that the cost is $7.7B - $10.5B over-and-above what we would have spent on the military anyway. That's where the difference is. That's called the incremental cost.
So take that $7.7B - $10.5B and add that to what would have been spent anyway if we hadn't gone to Afghanistan. That's the full cost to date and that's what you have to compare to the Conservative's $8B estimate.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:38:42 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:38
MRM
Today's estimate for Afghan mission costs is from the start of the mission to the end in 2011. It also includes such things as the cost of tanks and helicopters ($6B) which were not purchased for Afghanistan specifically. They were purchased for gen army use because that is the type of equipment armies have. We had tanks and helicopters long before the Afghan mission and will have these particular ones long after. In fact the helicopters will not even be delivered until 2012 but were still included by the budget office in the Afghan mission costs. So this accounts in part for why the costs estimated by the budget office are so high. Because some Liberal Party friendly accountant decided that because there are tanks in Afghanistan we have to count the cost of purchasing them and we decided to purchase helicopters while we had troops in Afghanistan so we have to count them to. The fact is though that while the costs to DND are real to attribute them to Afghanistan is just no accurate. For instance the costs for those tanks and helicopters were not included in the $8B cost estimate for the Afghan mission because they were included in the Army’s overall procurement budget so to include them in the Afghan costs as well is double accounting and does not reflect an accurate picture.
All that said the method used to produce this report and the timing of its release was all an effort by the Liberal controlled public service to hurt the Tories. It seems to have backfired though since it was quickly pointed out that of the 7 years we have been on the mission almost five of them were under the Liberals.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:38:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:38
DGoodchild
According to this article in the Globe and Mail: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wafghanreport1009/BNStory/International/home
The Conservative's estimate of the cost to date was about $8B but that's the 'full' cost. The report states that the incremental costs are already at least that high and probably higher (up to $10.5).
In order to compare apples to apples, the government's estimate of the incremental cost to date is only $3.8B.
For any readers who don't know, the incremental cost is the cost of the Afghanistan mission over and above the cost of maintaining the military which would be incurred anyway.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:02:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:02
Gordo05
I think you are right. I was intrigued with Nik's suggestion that the overwhelming support for the CPC in Western Canada may ignite a new brand of western alienation. I don't want to raise the spectres that this could lead to, but it does speak to your very valid point about a halting of previous Conservative support seeping to the Liberals. However, I would suggest that there may well be some very fluid voters out there. It's certainly going to be an interesting Thanksgiving Day weekend. Let's face it, after the turkey is gone, the table is cleared and the dishes are done - it'll be all over.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:23:38 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:23
wyly
Nik is out to lunch on this, voting conservative has nothing to do with or will add to western alienation, he's reading more into the polls than what there is...I've lived in the west (Sask & Ab) nearly my entire life, I'm a Canadaian first and always if the east votes differently than me that's just the way it is they have different regional concerns ...I would like to see a better electoral system than we have that would help...
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:25:56 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:25
larryl
t & j. If the Tory slide has stopped it will be very difficult to regain what they have lost. The Liberals have been climbing and will get more support from the undecided on election day. Many Green and NDP supporters will want to keep Harper from being reelected so they will vote strategically . The Bloc will hold the balance of power and get more from Harper than Dion so watch for a coalition of eastern and western seperatists. A small Liberal minority could see Harper stay in power with the help of the Bloc.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:09:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:09
Lex Llewdor
I think a separatist coalition would make for a fine government. They'd have a very narrow range of issues on which they'd agree, so that would severely limit the power of the government to do anything except those things that appease all separatists.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:12:03 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:12
HoldenCaulfield
Lex this is the most disheartening post that I have read quite honestly. Are you so angry and so Ideological that you would welcome the break up of Canada, a great nation? For what purpose? What about the soldiers from your own province who have fallen in Afghanistan and wars before, did they fight under the Canadian flag and under the Union Jack before that so that you and other separatist swine, could argue for the destruction of the Country.
I come from a long line of Loyalists, your sort of talk is unacceptable.
Oh and by the way before some neo con complains about the Swine comment I would draw your attention to Foxer's reference that the Green Party leader is in his words "Liberal Scum".
So please try not to be too much of a hypocrite.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:32:34 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:32
Lex Llewdor
I asked this further down, too. What do we really get out of being Canadian? Now. Not what we have received, but what do we get now?
And, as I've also said, I don't really want to country to break up. I want the central government vastly weakened, in accordance with how federations are traditionally run. Like how the US was run before the Civil War. Like how Upper Canada and Lower Canada were administered before 1867. Autonomously.
We can still co-operate on things like trade and defense. Indeed, we should co-operate more on trade than we do (we have too many trade barriers between provinces). But each province should be free to govern itself as it sees fit. If BC wants to legalise polygamy, let it. If Quebec wants a guaranteed minimum income, fine. But we shouldn't fund each other, and we should get in each others' way.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:30:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:30
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
With that in mind I'd like to go back to Joe Clarke's idea of a country of regions...five of them. That would make us stronger and much more efficient as big diversified country. The separation talk is all garbage as were the Quebec moves. Its nothing but legalized bribery of the center core of the country.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:38:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:38
Lex Llewdor
If you don't think the threats are credible, don't pay the ransom.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:40:12 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:40
Lex Llewdor
I also think those regions should be subdividable. Otherwise you'll just create the same problem again.
5 regions lumps together all 4 western provinces, and BC and Saskatchewan are very different places.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:41:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:41
HoldenCaulfield
The problem is that you can't address the big issues without a central Government. Provinces are good at taking care of provinces but they aren't so good at the big stuff. We can't tackle environmental issues at the provincial level only. You also need national standard for health care, for meat inspection, for emission control etc.
The world is a complex place, we are stronger as a nation, than as little pieces.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:30:33 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:30
Lex Llewdor
Why do we need national standards for meat inspection? Or health care?
You can't just assert that we need national standards without some justification for that. I can't begin to imagine why we'd even want national standards for health care.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:39:23 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:39
MRM
larryl - are you saying that the Tories are a Western seperatist party?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:43:50 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:43
larryl
MRM.No. Some reform/alliance members of the party certainly are. You have been reading posts from Westerner and Lex so it should be obvious some would definitely not try to stop it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 06:47:25 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 06:47
larryl
MRM."Quebec wants to stand alone as a separate nation; Ontario could do the same and we would all have economic and political independence. Each country could have the government they want instead of being controlled by Central Canada (Ontario)"
A quote from Westerner about seperatism. He and others would love to see Oilberta become a republic governed by President Steve with the fundamental Christian Right imposing their views on everybody.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:01:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:01
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Everyone in the know in Quebec says Harper has all but abandoned the provincve and will focus on Ontario. He will go down to two seats there. One for the amazing Mr. Bernier and the other to his cultural highlight Josee Verner. How wonderfully ironic that is.
His reason for only being in Ontario is that new tory polls show him losing more seats in Ontario and that he could end up with fewer than 30 seats there.
My earlier preliminary prediction of 85 Tory seats in total is starting to look good. My final prediction will come Sunday.Watch for it foxer; it will be as good as Nik's.
For added measure Dion is looking stronger in Quebec than ever and now Layton may also get shut out there. Both the bloc and the Libs have worked hard to hit the NDP vote and let the Libs slide up the middle in Outremont because the bloc does not want the NDP landing with any seats there.
I'm less certain about the west but it appears that Dion will retain most,if not all of his western seats.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:16:19 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:16
wyly
I believe there are about 40-45 swing seats that could go either way so and the amount of undecided voters going to the polls election day could very well decide if have a lib or conservative PM...a minority...
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:55:31 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:55
MichaelFox
A call for civility...
Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we're all just political hacks here (which we are).
You're not going to change anyone's vote through something you write on this message board.
Again, even if we can only manage it for one day, why don't we try to have an intelligent debate on a few issues without degrading into the usual name calling and comments such as "Dion sucks", "Harper sucks, Neocon, Bush" etc.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:07:34 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:07
35 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike Stokes
wishful thinking
it won't happen the left cannot give it up
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:09:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:09
m__g__
I hope this was written tongue in cheek. If not, ugh.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:03:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:03
Darryl
A minority government (one way or the other) is where we`re headed with the Bloc likely holding a balance of power. This is certainly not what we need in these times. It is sad that this is what the outcome looks to be.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:11:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:11
MichaelFox
I do think that the ongoing shifting in the polls aren't helping the stock markets. Markets drop when there is this kind of uncertaintly.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:14:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:14
Peggy
The World Economic Forum rates our banks at #1 that should end the slide in the Markets and the polls.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:18:10 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:18
Lex Llewdor
I think the Bloc holding the balance of power wold be the best possible minority outcome.
Decentralisation, here we come.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:16:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:16
Foxer
True lex.
It is looking that way right now - the bloc will have enough seats to vote with the libs to defeat a motion, and the ndp may not. That would put layton's nose out of joint a little think. He'd gain seats but lose power compared to before.
And it would make the libs the lynchpin again - they will be in a very difficult spot.
Mind you it hinges on how the cpc does. If they rebound and get close to 144 seats - it could be a tight thing.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:29:01 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:29
Foxer
There's pretty clear indication the CPC slide stopped a couple of days ago - and the libs were left trying to take support from other parties to make up what they need to win.
This would tend to indicate that's not happening. In fact, the ndp's numbers went up in a few places the libs were hoping to take from.
We have plateau'd again. As it's gone thru this election - movement, plateau, movement, plateau - there will likely be movement in the next day or two and the question is where will it show up?
Ekos is reporting the CPC is actually gaining a little ground. Without a doubt all the polls indicate strong growth in the west - the libs are back to looking like they'll get wiped out in the west. Which way will the east go? If they start to turn back to the cpc, that's the momentum we'll ride going into the election and we'll see the strong cpc minority we were looking at near the beginning of all this mess. If they go lib, it'll be a tight race. Or will the ndp be the big winners - they look like they'er gaining a hair.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:18:33 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:18
Darryl
Ontario will decide this election now I believe. The EKOS numbers today are very interesting:
CPC: 34
liberal: 25
ndp: 20
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:21:23 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:21
Foxer
Yes, ekos is definitely showing more positive action for the cpc than nanos.
We'll be seeing a result closer to the 144 seats i originally said if those numbers prove true.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:25:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:25
MichaelFox
As a Conservative, I have to admit, I'm not feeling great about the Ontario numbers right now. We'll need to move up a few percentage points to keep what we have here and grab a few seats.
Moving up 9% in Alberta doesn't help us. Even a 1% gain in Ontario would be more beneficial. Based on the numbers I'm seeing right now, we'd be at pretty much a status quo compared to the last election.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:27:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:27
HoldenCaulfield
I have to agree Michael that I suspect the slide has ended today. I think your prediction of a Tory minority is likely accurate at this point. I think their minority may be a bit diminished as I think they may lose a few seats in Quebec and Ontario that they currently have a couple of losses with no pick ups in the Maritime region. There support in Alberta has rocketed,but as you noted they already have all the seats there.
I think the NDP will do better in BC and this may prevent more pick ups by the Tories also. I agree that Ontario is the story and the place to watch closely.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:59:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:59
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden, the door to door canvassing I did today in areas of my riding that are considered B&C targets were very surprising in their support of the Libs. We have now compared the results to last election and they were surprising enough to be double checked. There are very few angry people as were seen last election over Adscam which tells us the party is back to its old popularity. The poll results shown by Nik for Ontario over the last few days correlates very well with our local findings.
If these numbers hold its safe to say the Libs will be forming a government on the 15th. They will win around 70 seats in Ontario alone with current numbers. If we can come out of Quebec and the Maritimes with 40 seats we could do very very well overall.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:29:10 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:29
Zab
What numbers have you seen for Missisauga South, Halton, Oshawa and Durham?
By the way, did you see nik's number for BC? I found it very surprising to see the librals competitive with the cons outside of the lower mainland. Any clue what ridings?
If con numbers are down in quebec, other than blackburn's riding, what other ones are competitive?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:42:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:42
Lex Llewdor
"Moving up 9% in Alberta doesn't help us."
It helps demonstrate the stark cultural divide, and it increases the chance that some opposition candidates won't get their deposits back, but that's about it.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:07:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:07
MichaelFox
I should have been clear to say "Moving up 9% in Alberta doesn't help us win more seats".
It's too bad that the country is so polarized. It's been this way (or worse) for as long as I can remember.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:42:41 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:42
Lex Llewdor
I think the polarization is a good thing. It's yet more evidence that Canada is not well served by a strong central government.
I don't want the country to break up. I want the country to be governed more like it was designed to be governed: locally.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:55:30 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:55
Lex Llewdor
And by Canada, there, I meant Canadians.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:57:20 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:57
HoldenCaulfield
Yes Lex it is always best to play up what divides us, good work, too bad Bush is leaving office, you would have made a fine adviser for him.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:34:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:34
MichaelFox
.. and it took a total of 14 posts for someone to bring up Bush.
Sad.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:55:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:55
Lex Llewdor
In the "call for civility" thread, too. That's impressive.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:11:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:11
Lex Llewdor
It's actually a bad strategy in the US, because the US population is very homogenous. There's very little policy difference between the two big parties down there - every election is run just on personality.
It's the opposite of Canada. Here our leaders have very little personality, but strive to highlight the policy differences between them.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:56:41 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:56
MichaelFox
Actually, that's what struck me when watching the U.S Presidential debate - Obama and McCain agreed on pretty much everything.
Both of them were far more polished than any of our candidates.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:11:03 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:11
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
as usual you are missing the boat. The CPC had a free pass for two days with the release of their platform and it didn't register. I would signal that as a bad sign for the cons.Another bad sign for the cons is the pick up of new voters in BC for the Libs.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:20:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:20
Foxer
It seems like it did register indeed. It stopped the drop in it's tracks, and now they're growing stronger in the west again according to Nanos and most of the other polls. And as i said - ekos is tracking an uptrend for the cpc.
Momentum takes a little time to build - but it seems like it had it's effect and now the CPC message of 'Dion's tax will hurt' is once again beginning to resonate with people.
The momentum is shifting - and dion has already lost the west. If ontario begins to move towards the cpc again, we'll still see that 144 result i mentioned before at the beginning. Possibly as high as 150. Still shy of a majority, but enough to call it a good win.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:39:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:39
Lex Llewdor
It's not a bombastic platform. It's a very modest platform. It's not the sort of platform that's going to catch public attention and take the country by storm.
It's the sort of platform designed to grow on people (a lot like Harper - no one really likes him, but they appear to have come to respect his cool rationality).
Does it have enough time to grow? We'll see.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:54:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:54
Foxer
Well that's the question. It seems to have sprouted now that the 'shine' from dion is wearing off. I notice reporters are starting to ask dion detailed questions about what he means by some of the stuff he says and it's quickly becoming clear he doesn't have any details.
As people calm down and realize the world didn't end - harper is starting to look like a better choice for leadership again. We'll likely know in the next two or three days - if he starts to climb during that period then it caught on and he'll ride that right into the polls.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:57:57 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:57
Lex Llewdor
The Canadian electorate is remarkably volatile. I honestly have no idea how the election's going to go. We're still more than a week out.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:25:29 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:25
Foxer
Less than a week now - 7 days and closing. It's going to be a nail biter :)
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:11:53 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:11
Lex Llewdor
Right. Lost track of which weekend was coming up.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:19:46 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:19
Foxer
So did i apperently - it's actually 5 days and closing :)
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:30:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:30
merritton
How about "Taliban Jack"? I guess Westerner doesn't know what an intelligent debate is.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:01:44 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:01
suedo
Actually I am not a political hack and belong to no political party. I would be happy to be civil. I hope that people do think about what all contributors write.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:24:28 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:24
Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:52:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:52
dgbeaulne
I did, and it was painful. I almost felt sorry for him.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:42:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:42
Worried Tory
My concern is that soft Dippers and Greens will flock to the Liberals over the weekend and give Dion a narrow plurality.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:25:44 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:25
23 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Cadillac Jack is awesome. Tell all your friends that should vote for him!!
I bet the CPC would like to put out some ads over the weekend propping up the NDP and Layton.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:27:34 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:27
westerner (suspended)
Taliban Jack would bankrupt the country!
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:38:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:38
Lex Llewdor
Only if he holds power, which isn't going to happen.
But he'd be a far more entertaining leader of the opposition than any Liberal, wouldn't he?
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:05:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:05
tiredandjaded
Except that there's no way he will be leader of the opposition this time around.
The NDP will split the Liberal vote and the Conservatives will get another minority.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:11:03 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:11
westerner (suspended)
Yes. We might find out who "ordinary" Canadians are.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:15:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:15
Darryl
Oh I now it would be a disaster is Jack were elected but what I`m saying is that the CPC would love for Jack to pick up a lot more votes in the next 5 days since they would come mostly at the expense of the liberals.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:14:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:14
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Darryl, good try. The cons need all the positive traction they can get.Going negative in that manner will hurt them further. They need positive reinforcement something harper doesn't know how to do.
The NDP vote will soften back to 17% and maybe even less id Dion is selling well this weekend. Taliban Jack is wearing thin on voters with way too much over exposure and he is generating Layton fatigue among people.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:25:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:25
Darryl
How is propping up Cadillac Jack going negative? Of course the CPC is not really going to promote the NDP but I`m sure the CPC would like to see an NDP resurgence in the next few days.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:29:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:29
Lex Llewdor
They could. Ralph Klein used to do that. He'd give speeches where he'd say a bunch of nice things about NDP leader Raj Pannu. Why? Because he really disliked Liberal leader Nancy MacBeth, but rather than go negative and attack her, he went positive and said good things about Raj.
But nothing about that sort of tactic is "going negative".
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:52:26 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:52
HoldenCaulfield
This certainly is not scientific and no I am not saying it to spin anything, but all of my colleagues and friends who I have spoken to (I'm in Ontario) who usually vote NDP plan to vote Liberal this time. I know that the supporters of the Conservatives don't understand the fear, but there is real fear of Harper and the conservatives amongst lefties and centrists. On the ground it's not just about the environment or the economy, it's about all the things that people around him do that creep us out. There is a feeling that the advisers, and people around him, plus his MPs (especially the ones from the West) are hardcore social conservatives who want to tamper about in people's personal lives.
So many new democrats will agree when someone says the Liberals act like Conservatives economically when in power. That's hard to argue with Paul Martin was more conservative with the public purse than Michael Wilson in Mulroney's Gov't had ever been. However, the folks I know can always trust the Liberals to keep their nose out "of the bedrooms of the nation", they don't tamper with abortion issues - not even to muse about it, they shy away from censorship, they are patrons of the Arts etc.
I know that some of you are likely shaking your heads and saying the arts and those moral issues don't matter to regular people, but if you think that you are out of touch with a whole lot of people in Ontario and Quebec. The whole separation of Church and State, is really important here. Ask John Tory the Ontario Conservative leader who tried to run his last election campaign on a plank of extending funding to religious schools. Most agree that he shot himself in the foot and helped re-elect the Liberals with a Majority (even though Tory was a moderate on most other issues).
Even when Mike the Knife Harris was the Tory Premier of Ontario, his cabinet stayed away from social conservative issues. They were all about money, money, money, their cuts were ruthless, but they had nothing to do with some Evangelical Preacher hanging around trying to convince someone to clean up dirty thoughts, or works or art.
If you are wondering why the Ontario numbers turned around, or why 5,000 protested in the streets in Montreal about the Arts, this is why.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:10:57 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:10
Lex Llewdor
I do wish Harper were more like Mike Harris. And if Harper wins a majority and then starts messing with people's personal lives or getting all socially conservative on us, I'll be the first one in line to bring him down.
But until he shows even the slightest sign of doing that, your fear mongering is baseless.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:28:19 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:28
Darryl
If I honestly thought that a Conservative majority government would ban abortion, ban same-sex marriages, force religion on us all, etc. then I would never vote for them. If they ever did this kind of stuff they would ruin the future of their party forever. Prime Minister Harper is smarter than that.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:39:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:39
HoldenCaulfield
But lex and Daryl that is exactly who these guys are. His caucus is full of Evangelical Christians. Stockwell Day is a young earth Creationist. They have Charles McVety from the Family Values group or whatever it is called hanging around advising them on arts and film funding.
The first chance they got they killed the Court Challenges program, which group benefited most from that program, gays and lesbians. The party since the days of Reform has had members make so many statements that were intolerant, bigoted or homophobic that it is hard to believe anyone could forget them all.
Stephen Harper moderated what he said because he knew that this stuff did not sell in Central Canada. But just not saying it anymore doesn't mean anything.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:41:12 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:41
Lex Llewdor
Right. That's who they are. But who they are doesn't matter. What matters is what they do.
Sure, Stockwell Day thinks the earth is 6,000 years old and humans and dinosaurs co-existed (more astute young earth creationists think dinosaurs never existed, and the bones were put in the ground by god to test their faith).
But he's allowed to believe that, and we're not allowed to deny him a job based on it. Are you familiar with the Charter of Rights?
I'll judge my leaders on their actions, thanks.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:49:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:49
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden, those comments are dead on. I do canvassing in my riding,having personally hit over 800 homes with many more to go, and the most "noise" I get is about the distrust of Harper from people on the left. Some may even hold their noses to vote Liberal this time but they simply want to ensure Harper is not going to be PM on Wednesday morning.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:29:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:29
Peggy
Alberta's running this country now-not Quebec and Ontario and I'm from NB. The people all over this country know whose buttering their bread these days!! Anyone watch Mike Duffy Live tonight???
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:26:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:26
wyly
why would that be so bad... isn't that what the various right wing parties did to get where they are now....at least if the libs, greens, NDP join forces the majority of Canadians would rightfully have control of the government unlike it is now with 30some % of the population forming the government
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:43:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:43
HoldenCaulfield
You have a good point wyly, the Reform/Alliance Party cut a deal with Peter Mackay who sold his own Progressive Conservative Party out. This CPC was born on a lie, on Mackay's lie when he promised David Orchard and other moderates that he would never give the party away to the Reformers, then he did.
I'm sure there are lots of old PC'ers who would love to vote for a Progressive Conservative Party again, but unfortunately their party is gone, so they vote Liberal or NDP. Instead of the Conservative Party carving out a place in a moderate party for more radical conservatives, they gave their party away to those radicals.
I agree why is it bad if progressive voters combine their votes in the Liberal Tent, people know that if this prevents Harper from coming back to Government than this good. People also know that a Liberal Minority will work more cooperatively with the opposition parties, this will be the end of the bullying.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:37:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:37
Peggy
And Elizabeth May sold her party out now to the Liberals!!!What a joke!!!!
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:27:57 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:27
HoldenCaulfield
Peggy were you planning to vote green, or just hoping for them to split the vote up nicely for you?
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:30:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:30
wyly
why because she said what other leaders are afraid to say?...if the other leaders had the balls ms May had they would all state a 2nd preference for PM if they could not have the job....
[updated Fri Oct 10 00:38:18 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 00:38
Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:51:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:51
wyly
so democracy worries you? that the majority of Canadians are not tories and should allow themselves to dominated by tory minority is just?
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:16:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:16
westerner (suspended)
This political balkanization of the country has been evidence for a long time. It will not just add to western alienation but will contribute to the move for western separation. Dion and his discriminatory carbon tax is not good for the energy rich west.
Quebec wants to stand alone as a separate nation; Ontario could do the same and we would all have economic and political independence. Each country could have the government they want instead of being controlled by Central Canada (Ontario)
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:33:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:33
34 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Oh brother.
Now you're threatening to take your ball and go home if your guy doesn't win, or by the margin you think he should?
Democracy is democracy. Sometimes elections don't turn out the way it should. I find your stuff to be nothing more then electoral blackmail.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:49:58 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:49
(or the way political supporters think it should, is what I meant to say)
Regardless, even if "the West" separated, there is no way that would isolate it from the world demanding that it help stop contributions to GHG emissions. Obama's chief economic adviser has already hinted they won't trade with nations who emit GHG and other pollution in the atmosphere and have no credible environemntal plan to stop it.. and he specifically mentioned the Alberta tarsands as an example.
So, turtling in your own shell won't save you and allow you to pollute at will.
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:52:13 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:52
Lex Llewdor
And when that happens, we can deal with it. But as long as there's neither stick nor carrot, there's no reason to take action.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:04:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:04
MRM
stribe - I think if Obama were serious and I doubt he was, I am sure we could find another customer for our oil. China and India come to mind but there are certainly others. That said, since we are US's largest and most stable supplier I doubt he would mess with that arrangement.But it does make good campaign rhetoric and plays well to his base. Just like his NAFTA comments.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:49:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:49
Lex Llewdor
To be fair, if the US decided they wouldn't trade with us at all until we improved our emissions, that would really hurt.
But we're their biggest trading partner. They'd warn us about it first.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:41:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:41
westerner (suspended)
You miss the point! It is not one election that causes large numbers of people to consider separation but many years of western alienation. We realize now as the years go by why Quebec feels the way it does.
Surely you would agree that Ontario would be better off economically and politically; there are hateful comments from Ontario bloggers about the west and I would think they would cheer for separation. Each region has its own aspirations that can be met only with separation.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:01:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:01
Lex Llewdor
Freedom is freedom. If it's our ball, why can't we take it?
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:03:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:03
DGoodchild
If the country were to break up as you suggest, I'd only ask one thing: Pay back Ontario for all of the outgoing transfer payments before you go.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:16:13 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:16
Lex Llewdor
If you'll do the same, sure.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:25:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:25
DGoodchild
You do know that Ontario has never received equalization payments right?
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:31:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:31
Foxer
You know bc alberta and sask are paying INTO equalization, and bc and alberta together have had something like 6 years of equalization in the last 100?
Sure - we'll pay you out for every cent of equalization if we go. As long as you pay us back for all the oil and stump royalties you took from us over the years. Guess which of us will come out ahead :)
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:41:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:41
HoldenCaulfield
In case you didn't notice Foxer, Ontario pays into those payments also, and always has without fail.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:10:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:10
Foxer
Sure. So do we. In fact, in case YOU hadn't noticed bc and alberta traditionally pay MORE per capita.
So i guess ontario won't be paying anything if they leave - but it's sure not looking like we will either :)
3 out of 4 have provinces are western.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:14:50 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:14
HoldenCaulfield
So what is your point, are you saying that you want to dump PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and New Foundland? They are Canadians also..
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:48:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:48
Foxer
I said nothing about those provinces. I was responding to Dgood's comment that if the west left confederation we should pay back the transfers. My point was simply that if we pay back everything we took, and ottawa paid back everything it took, we'd be pretty happy with that. :)
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:05:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:05
HoldenCaulfield
Foxer I have a better idea, pack up and move to one of the Red States down in the US, I'm sure there is a compound down there full of people who think just like that.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:32:49 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:32
Foxer
No, this is my home. I doubt that myself or the 50 percent of westerners who agree with me are intersted in going anywhere. If anything - we'll ask others to leave.
Nonetheless - you seem very confused here. I wasn't proposing anything, i was responding to something someone else proposed.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:34:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:34
Lex Llewdor
Too Christian. The US is far too religious for my tastes.
Canada's second largest "religious" group is non-religious people. Especially out west (more than 25% of BC and Alberta residents have no religion).
This is a really good thing about western Canada - more and more we see what good religion doesn't do, and we're moving away from it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:42:33 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:42
Lex Llewdor
Sure. If you want to separate, we'll give you yours back, too.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:23:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:23
Lex Llewdor
Sure. But I want back the federal taxes that funded equalisation.
I'm not going to give back the benefits if I still have to shoulder the costs.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:46:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:46
HoldenCaulfield
Westerner, you speak as though all Westerners speak with the same voice. A quick check on line shows that the current Alberta Tory Gov't was elected with 52.7 % of the vote. That is very good, an extremely strong Majority in our system. However here is the problem with your argument.
1. you would have to argue that every Tory in Alberta was a separtist
2. Even if every Tory was, which of course is just stupid, then you would have agree that the feelings of the other 48% doesn't matter.
3. If you are going to argue that Alberta New Dems are Separatists, I would have to chuckle. I suspect that New Democrats and Likely Liberals would like if we could liberate them from the Conservatives there.
You also don't consider your own demographic changes in Alberta. In a post yesterday someone reminded me that Alberta is seeing a rapid growth of population. Do you think that all of those people who voted Liberal and NDP from down in the Atlantic Provinces, or Ontario, or new immigrants are just automatically going to become Tories when they breath the air out there? No you demographics will change your voting patterns. If you don't believe me look at Quebec, the move to separate from Canada diminished as the Anglophone and immigrant population grew. Jacque Parizeau got himself in trouble for saying this out loud.
So you may continue to say, come West young man, but along with those young men and women will come a more diverse world view.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:08:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:08
Lex Llewdor
What's the voter turnout in Alberta?
Alberta used to have a cadre of separatist parties. The Alberta Independence Party. The Alberta First Party. These all faded away when Harper took over the Canadian Alliance, but the support for them is there. It's not nearly 50% - not yet - but there is a groundwork for growth.
I don't think getting separatists elected in Alberta would be easy, or even likely, but I think you underestimate the support for their ideas.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:38:49 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:38
HoldenCaulfield
I think your musings feed their anger and misinformation. Look for common ground instead of looking to divide.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:40:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:40
Lex Llewdor
Compromise leads to bad government. I've been over this again and again.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:09:30 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:09
wyly
absolutely correct, western separatists are on the lunatic fringe, there is just no support for it...I've heard this talk out here for 25-30 years and the movement has not grown any, the media does love a good story though and gives it undeserved attention
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:16:33 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:16
HoldenCaulfield
Good point,
And as someone reminded a poster one day, the true West is British Columbia, Alberta is in the middle. Out on the West Coast the Liberals are on the move upwards.
Harpers biggest support sits in Alberta, sask and manitoba. The NDP may want to explain why we should trust them to govern when they can't even win back the Saskatchewan Seats in Tommy Douglas' old province.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:42:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:42
Foxer
Well that's just pure nonsense. For well over 100 years westerners have considered the praries and bc to be the west.
And as to there being no support, that's nonsense too. When paul martin was in power a survey was done and it showed very strong sentiment for leaving canada in both alberta and bc. As in above 40 percent in both provinces.
Harper winning the election has toned that down quite a bit. He's a westerner after all and he also respects provincial jurisdiction which is one of the main issues for the west.
I don't think the west wants to leave - i think it will if it doesn't get a fair shake tho. But for now it's not an issue - people are happy with harper and he's taking the country in the right direction instead of grabbing at western resources constantly and passing stupid anti-gun laws to make toronto happy.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:09:43 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:09
HoldenCaulfield
So help me out Foxer, we need to elect all of our Prime Ministers from Alberta if we want you to stay and play in the Sandbox? Give me strength
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:34:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:34
Foxer
I think the kind of help you may need probably requires something a little more 'professional' than what I can offer :)
Of course it doesn't need to be a westerner. And being a westerner alone won't make anyone happy - we turned our backs on turner and campbell - both folks who lived in the west.
But it does give harper a little better feeling towards what really pisses westerners off and that's important both in perception and in practical terms. Many of the things he's done he's shown a little care for the west. It makes the west feel like they at least have some voice, and that reduces the desire to leave.
Like i said - i don't think the west wants to leave. I think it will if it feels it has no voice and simply has to do what ontario and quebec wants.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:46:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:46
HoldenCaulfield
What exactly is it that Central Canadians do that pisses you off? I don't get quite frankly. Are you really pissed when someone in Ontario goes to an Art Exhibit, or someone in Quebec goes to an Opera. You know we go to hockey arenas, and baseball diamonds also, just like everyone else. We have tonnes of hunters here in Ontario also, lots of long guns. We have little towns and big cities and everything in between.
I am not that clear what it is that offends you so.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:20:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:20
Foxer
There are numerous regional differences. Take some of the more glaring for example, like the gun registry. It's hated out here and is HORRIBLE law. Yet we got it because of a shooting in quebec, a shooting that as it turns out would NOT have even been prevented by the registry. And it doesn't work as is. It does not tell police how many legally owned guns i've got or what type, even when the rules are followed perfectly. It just hurts gun owners and that's a huge part of western culture - we have large numbers of hunters and firearms owners and it's a very important part of how we raise our children.
Or consider things like the NEP. That's always a sore spot and it's not exactly ancient history, that was less than 20 years ago.
There's also policy such as crime - the eastern and quebec desire to let every criminal out of jail as soon as possible isn't popular in the west - where many of those criminals flee to.
There is also long standing anger over favoritism in the east. For example, only about 4 years ago the feds paid for all canada's top aerospace companies to go to a world trade symposium and pitch their wares. All that is except western ones - not ONE of our big companies was included. They had to pay their own way. One example of many. Ottawa tends to spend its' money east of manitoba.
Further there's also resentment that a region that has almost half the land mass of canada traditionally has the least amount of say in the gov't. Quebec gets special numbers of votes per person because of it's 'culture'. The atlantics get way more reps per person because they're smaller. But for some reason the western provinces have FEWER reps per person than is required. Why is that?
And lets face it - for generations ottawa ignored the west to pander to eastern voters. The reasons are obvious - that's where the most votes were. But the west had NO voice, despite the fact that we pay the most money per capita into confederation. Remember the reform battlecry - it wsan't "lets seperate", it was "the west wants in".
And that just touches on much much deeper issues and i'm only mentioning a tiny handful of examples.
Think of it this way - imagine suddenly alberta had the power to tell ontario what to do and how to live. Do you think you'd care for all the laws they'd impose on you? Do you think you'd like having no voice? You can see what i mean.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:37:28 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:37
HoldenCaulfield
Foxer Said: Think of it this way - imagine suddenly alberta had the power to tell ontario what to do and how to live. Do you think you'd care for all the laws they'd impose on you? Do you think you'd like having no voice? You can see what i mean.
Holden Responds: I don't have to imagine, I've lived it for the past 2.5 years under Harper.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:43:17 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:43
Foxer
Nonsense. He's been very sensitive to eastern issues as well.
Now imagine ralph klein had absolute power over ontario with no fear of being kicked out of office. THEN you'd notice the difference :) heh!
OF course ontario would likely be better off in the long run, but i doubt you'd approve of how he did it.
Harper is far more moderate. But - the west has found itself in EXACTLY the position of having quebec and ontario dictating terms to it for generations. And with about as much enthusiasm as you would under ralph klien. And we couldn't do much to change things - our votes just didn't add up to enough to threaten any leader. We had less seats than quebec, never mind ontario.
So you can see where we start to get a little pissed about it :)
Things are a little different now - we've got a lot more seats (still under what we should have) and it's getting pretty hard to ignore the west. We've got more seats than quebec, and quebec splits her vote with the bloc. We're closing in on ontario as far as numbers of seats goes, and it's getting very hard to win even a minority without significant support in the west.
We don't exactly run the country, but we cannot be ignored. Some parties are still struggling with that idea. Dion would love to ignore us and basically has - but he's going to find out that will cost him big time. He cannot win without the west.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:55:42 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:55
Lex Llewdor
Wouldn't decentralization be better? Then you couldn't tell us how to live, and we couldn't tell you how to live. Everyone's happy.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:43:43 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:43
jcamero
As a Tory my analysis might be a little bias towards one side, but love to hear all your thoughts...
One time:
Angus Reid- Tories 35%, Libs 27% (Oct. 6th, 7th) 1,000 ppl.
Daily:
Ekos- Tories 35 (+1), Libs 24 (-1) (Monday Oct.6th, 7th, 8th) 3,100 ppl. total
Nanos- Tories 33 (NC), Libs 29 (NC) (Monday Oct. 6th, 7th, 8th ) 1,200 ppl. total
Harris Decima: Tories 32 (+1), Libs 27 (NC) (Sunday Oct. 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th) 1,200 ppl. total
Summary:
The trends from yesterday’s analysis seem to be continuing. It appears that Nanos is slow on picking up the decreasing trends of the Liberals, and the increasing trend of the Tories. I think this is due particularly to the high #’s Nanos is giving the Liberals in Ontario, which is different than all of the other Federal polls. Nanos also shows much volatility in Atlantic Canada (Of note though, MOE is 10%), and this combined with the Ont. Libs seems to be keeping the Libs at 29%. Any drop of in their #’s in Ont. and the Atlantic in the Nanos poll and the libs will fall from 29%.
At the same time, all polls show a falling in support of the Liberals in Quebec, however Harris Decima has the libs polling at 29%, while Nanos has them at 19% and Ekos has them at 21%. This should provide encouragement for falling Lib national poll #’s, as 29% seems out of whack with other polls, and is probably over polling Montreal.
Here are the spreads by the polls:
Ekos: Tories ahead by 11
AR: Tories ahead by 8
Harris Decima: Tories ahead by 5
Nanos: Tories ahead by 4
In Ontario:
Ekos: Tories 36 (+1), Libs 32 (+1)
Nanos: Tories 28 (NC), Libs 39 (-1)
Harris Decima: Tories 28 (+2), Libs 32 (-2)
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:47:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 14:47
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
The difference throughout the campaign has been that Nanos polls show much lower Green support - the reasons for that are obvious once you check out the different methodologies.
2006 suugests that Nik's method works better, which means that the other polls are in fact overstating Green support, and understating Liberal support.
But 2006 is just one data point. We'll see how this election goes. If Nik is as close to perfect as he was last time, then I think we'll see the other pollsters start to change their methods to match Nik's.
But, as you say, most of this difference is in Ontario. That could just mean that Ontario's especially volatile, and we simply don't know how they'll vote. They're the new BC.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:02:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:02
ed84
LOL you mean the other way around.
Nanos has been showing that its close all this time..yesterday Harris Decima comes out of nowhere and shows basically the same overall numbers. Why out of nowhere? Because they had the Cons in the lead by 12-14pts before that.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:43:58 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:43
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Your premise is wrong.As stated in another post the Tories had a free ride for two days to hype their platform and it didn't go anywhere further than a wet fart. The bump would have ben over these last two days and instead they are flat w/o much gas left in the tank. The announcement of the cost of Afghanistan is going to make for another tough day or two for the cons.
They are just about toast in Ontario with not much chance of moving up and a good possibility of moving down more as others feast on their carcass.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:37:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:37
HoldenCaulfield
Agreed the Cons platform was the Event that Wasn't.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:12:37 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:12
Peggy
Many maritimers who watched the interview of Dion with Steve Murphy might think again!!!!!
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:30:53 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:30
Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:51:19 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:51
Straittohell
I am not seeing a lot of talk about an NDP-Liberal coaltion government. If the Conservatives don't get enough for a majority, there is technically nothing stopping the NDP and Liberals from forming a coalition government, with the Bloc simply holding the trigger. Note that I said "technically"... I am sure that there are plenty of personality and ideological barriers.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:10:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:10
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
There is one thing stopping them. Harper.
As the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper is the one who will first be asked by the Governor General if he can form a government. If he wins a plurality of seats, he'll say yes.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:25:10 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:25
HoldenCaulfield
Agree, whichever party has the most seats, they get the first crack, however if their Throne Speech is rejected than like in Ontario with the Miller Government the Opposition Coalition can be asked to form a Government.
I'm not confident that the numbers will be there for a Lib/NDP Coalition however, but if they were you can bet that Jack would take it, he is so hungry for real power, he would trip over himself to get to the table.
Actually if that did happen, Jack should be in the Cabinet, because otherwise they would never keep his mouth shut, having him at the Cabinet table would force some discipline upon him. This suggestion however is where the NDP would shoot itself in the foot, as they showed with Trudeau many years before they are nervous being close to power. Bob Rae in his biography said compared being a New Democrat in opposition as being a permanent adolescent.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:17:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:17
Lex Llewdor
Wrong. The sitting Prime Minister gets the first crack. The leader with the most seats comes next.
I really should look that up to be sure.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:22:51 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:22
larryl
Lex. You are correct about Harper having to turn over the reins of power. There is another scenario no one has mentioned. A Liberal Bloc coalition would not be impossible since most Quebecers were at one time Liberal supporters. French Canadians in all parts of the country voted for the Grits at some time in their lives. Since the seperation of Quebec is no longer an issue even in Quebec they could work together just as easily as with the NDP who are supposedly socialists. Duceppe might like to be part of the government to have more power to work for his province within confederation and at the same time get rid of Harper.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:24:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:24
wyly
if there is a majority that would be automatic but what if a coalition with a larger number of seats presents itself to GG as wanting to be the government I don't think the GG would have any choice but to accept that...
if the the government falls I think the GG has the option of offering the opposition the government, I don't think it's ever happened or if the GG ever would do so...
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:37:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:37
Lex Llewdor
It did. One of King's governments fell, and the government was offered to the opposition.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:21:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:21
wyly
thank you, I know something new I didn't before
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:40:01 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:40
Foxer
Quite true - king asked to disolve parliament and teh GG told him he had to quit instead and offered the opposition the chance to form gov't. King ran in the next election and won again, but it did happen.
However - for that to happen circumstances would have to be very special. For example - if harper won 140 seats it's very unlikely that any two opposition parties would have enough seats to form gov't instead of him. And if the opposition votes him down in a no confidence motion, they're saying they have no confidence in the parliament (all three of them ) and the gg would be compelled to call an election.
There's not much chance of it here, unless harper and the libs were darn near tied.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:13:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:13
MichaelFox
The first thing that would need to happen would be for all parties to refuse to vote for a Conservative throne speech.
With the numbers the way they are right now, it'd take a coalition of the Liberals, NDP *and* the BQ to have a majority.
Ignoring the BQ for a minute, I have to wonder how long the NDP and the Liberals could get along. They have some similarities, but they also have large differences. For example, the Liberals are in favour of corporate tax cuts. Jack has based a major portion of his campaign on opposition to those cuts. Jack also strikes me as having too large of an ego to play the little brother role in a coalition for very long.
There is also the psychological factor of the party with the largest number of seats not forming the government. That might have played in Ontario 2 decades ago, but I'm not sure it would go over well today.
[updated Thu Oct 09 15:42:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 15:42
Lex Llewdor
The Liberals don't really need to favour corporate tax cuts. It's good policy, but it's not the good politics it used to be. Before Chrétien's campaign finance reform, the Liberal party was funded almost exclusively by corporate donors. Now they're not, so they're not beholden to those donors.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:09:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:09
MichaelFox
They're not beholden to the donors, but they at least recognize this one as good public policy.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:50:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:50
Lex Llewdor
Like that would sway them if they were offered more power.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:21:21 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:21
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The only way a coalition of those two would happen is if the NDP agreed to be a junior partner and Taliban Jack was not in Cabinet. For the Libs to agree with anything else would be suicide.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:32:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:32
Media_Thoughts
Not a chance. Don't be fooled the Liberal is THE party of big business (Note Paul Martin's memoirs lamenting the restriction put on party contributions and how it hurt the Liberals because they were accustomed to getting LARGE cheques from the banks) and Jack is an anti-corporation guy...they do not fit and never will.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:33:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:33
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Media thought....I agree the libs are the party of big business and also the party of the center. They have it down pat.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:40:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:40
HoldenCaulfield
Jack would politically climb into bed with anyone, you give him too much credit.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:36:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:36
Peggy
The governor general might have something to say about it. The minority gov't, as far as I know get the first call????
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:32:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:32
wyly
I don't think that's written in stone....the GG officially still has I believe the supreme power in this land and if two or three parties came forward and asked to govern as one it would have to be considered
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:51:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:51
suedo
I see right-conservative policies are working tremendously well. Is there anything working?
Can anybody find the DOW - its dark that fell down the well.
What we should do is copy the Americans and we too will be in their enviable position.
Just curious - how are those jobs coming in manufacturing? Moving their operations to China has been tremendously successful for Americans. Maybe we should try that too.
They are far ahead of us in the military workplace - any chance we can find our own war - to get in on the action.
Then again still much more profitable to be one of Stephen's real heroes - the hockey player. Shoot puck in net = $10,000,000 Get shot defending freedom = $60,000
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:37:01 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:37
48 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
Do you realise you just assumed that everything the US does is "right-conservative" regardless of how interventionist and command economy they are?
Moving those manufacturing jobs to China is a GREAT THING for the US, because that means cheaper consumer goods. Modern economies are driven by services. If the US kept those manufacturing jobs, that would have stifled innovation, plus their manufacturing companies would have been unprofitable (since the Chinese would sell at lower prices).
Explain to me how you keep manufacturing jobs when China makes everything you can make cheaper?
In the English debate, Jack Layton complained about Canada exporting raw logs, musing "I can't think of anything you can make out of wood that we can't make here." And he's right. We can make it here. But other countries can make it cheaper. If we make it here, either we have to sell it at a loss or we don't sell it. Those are our options.
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:45:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:45
suedo
It is working great. Unemployment rate up. Banks being nationalized. Poverty, gangs, drugs, crime, war. Can't fix states devastated by hurricanes. It's perfect. Did you find the dow yet?
The again back to that hockey player. Better sitting in the stands in Edmonton with his hockey sweater on - than in a bullet proof jacket in a war zone.
So tell me which does the free market support more the hockey star or the soldier protecting freedoms?
[updated Thu Oct 09 16:59:25 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 16:59
Lex Llewdor
The hockey player. In a free market military service would always be voluntary (as it is in the US and Canada - any soldier either country currently has serving overseas volunteered for that).
The free market wouldn't have banks collapsing like the US has now, because they wouldn't have been encouraged to lend out money to people who couldn't afford the loans. Seriously, do you know that Fannie & Freddie even did? And do you know where they came from? They were both created by the US government. That's not a free market.
The US doesn't have a poverty problem. A homeless guy begging for change on a street corner in Chicago is among the 10% wealthiest people on the planet.
The drug problem is also a creation of the US government. By banning drugs, they've created a huge criminal underground that serves the demands of the people. If they legalised drugs, all those crimes would go away.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:08:18 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:08
suedo
Oh we don't pay the soldiers?
Yes blame game on the homeless or the poor.
No all leaders are calling it greed - even those of your political persuasion.
Back to our troops and how much we (support our troops)
Become a hockey player and shoot a rubber disc down a sheet of ice or a little ball with a big iron in a little hole - for that's so much more important than our troops - is that what you mean???
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:13:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:13
Media_Thoughts
Why pick on Hockey players, they are entertainers and are paid on a different basis, it is not the value of the job, it is the magnification of the number of people willing to pay to see them.
Maybe the answer is to charge the media to access the war zones!
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:18:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:18
suedo
Let's really test how much people are willing to pay the troops? Draft them with million dollar contracts. Let the people decide if they are willing to pay them the same as entertainers. It is a value being placed on a job by the people. I support the troops 1 million dollars a tour per soldier when in a war zone in a combat role. Let's see if we really support them - more than a bottle of beer (thus the advertising)
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:20:50 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:20
Lex Llewdor
Sure we pay the soldiers. Otherwise they wouldn't do it. But that doesn't change that it's voluntary service.
Where am I blaming the homeless or the poor? The poor were often behaving quite intelligently by taking out those loans - they never had to pay them back, because they couldn't. It was really just free money. I'd have taken it too. No, I was blaming the government for interfering in the market.
Given the difference in wages, I would think it's clear that top athletes are valued far more than individual soldiers, yes.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:20:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:20
suedo
Well are we paying them what they are worth? We pay hockey players by buying beer and supporting a brand of softdrink. Hockey players volunteer to for 10 mill a season. How much would you pay a soldier?
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:22:43 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:22
Lex Llewdor
I haven't read any useful studies on the issue. In general, I want to pay them what it takes to get enough people to volunteer. I want to pay them enough so that I attract competent soldiers.
Given that they tend to be young and single, and even get subsidised housing, I'd probably still pay them less than the Canadian average salary.
Remember, it's voluntary. If you don't like the wage, don't take the job.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:35:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:35
suedo
Okay - then you support the troops by purchasing them for as cheap as you can - young single - subsidized housing. Okay sounds like hockey players. So it's a mill a season or tour.
Why don't we pay them what they are worth? What do you think they are worth?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:05:18 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:05
MichaelFox
Suedo, why don't you tell us what they're worth?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:13:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:13
suedo
At least as much as a grown man shooting a rubber disc into a net - now you try...
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:29:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:29
Lex Llewdor
If we were hiring tens of thousands of grown men to shoot rubber discs into nets, then you'd be right. But we're only hiring those few hundred grown men worldwide who are the very best at shooting rubber discs into nets. They're far more scarce.
Or are you arguing for wage and price controls?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:23:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:23
suedo
Hockey football baseball golf tennis and juniors of them all - we could make an army out of them. I am asking you to tell me what the troops are worth to you.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:25:43 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:25
MichaelFox
So do you think hockey player salaries should be lower, or soldiers should be making millions. The government doesn't set hockey player salaries. If they did, I'm sure they wouldn't be making as much as they do.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:51:33 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:51
suedo
We set hockey players salaries and we set soldiers salaries.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:59:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:59
Lex Llewdor
No, the market sets hockey player salaries (or it did until the collusive salary cap).
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:10:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:10
suedo
Who is the market?
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:10:34 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:10
Lex Llewdor
Your competitors, usually. If you want to hire a hockey player, but other people want to hire him too, then you'll need to pay more than they will in order to secure his services.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:45:13 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:45
Lex Llewdor
I don't pay hockey players at all. I pay the team to entertain me. How they go about doing that isn't any of my business.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:43:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:43
suedo
What do you pay the troops for?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:05:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:05
Lex Llewdor
To kill people and blow stuff up.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:24:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:24
suedo
Now that's interesting - do you support that?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:26:20 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:26
Lex Llewdor
I think that's the primary job of a soldier. If we have soldiers, the number one thing we should train and outfit them to do is kill people and blow stuff up.
If that's not what we want done, why are we using soldiers to do it?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:43:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:43
suedo
So how much are they worth?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:56:29 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:56
Media_Thoughts
Are you insinuating that the Liberals (even the NDP or Greens) are not "free market" parties.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:15:09 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:15
suedo
No - everybody is - now back to our troops. What type of support should we show them? Ribbons or a paycheck like a hockey player (grown man shooting puck in net)
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:18:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:18
Lex Llewdor
No, I'm not insinuating that.
I'm saying it outright.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:20:54 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:20
suedo
Better than talking about the value of our troops. Don't want to go there do you.
We support our troops they bellow in the HOC - then they don the hockey sweater to sit in the arena to watch millionaire grown men shoot pucks.
[updated Thu Oct 09 17:28:23 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 17:28
HC in AB
I, and I think most people here, see absolutely no connection between our troops and professional hockey. Most Canadians enjoy following the game, and and being a polititian does not make make one immune for that. Hockey is entertainment, if someone decides that the price of a ticket is fair value for his entertainment dollar, that is a consumer decision, not unlike that deciding to use an ATM outside of your own financial instution's network is fair value for the $3 or $4 that they are charged. Polititians of all stripes follow and enjoy the game of hockey.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:29:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:29
suedo
If you do not see the connection - what do you mean by "supporting" our troops. You mean like armchair cheerleaders? Or will you people put our money where your mouth is. What are the troops worth?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:31:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:31
wyly
I'll go there...as politically incorrect as it sounds, it's their job I didn't ask them to join the forces, our soldiers have a very safe occupation, how many serious shooting conflicts have we been in since Korea? We've had just under a 100 killed since the start of the conflict in 7yrs(?), over a thousand Canadians are killed on the job every year no yellow ribbons for any of them...the military are non-productive members(a net drain on our resources) of our society and we pay them well enough for doing very little 99% of the time.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:49:30 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:49
suedo
Thank you wyly for your straight forward answer. I believe that the troops should know the real feelings of Canadians.
I believe when they are in combat zones they should be paid $200,000 per tour plus regular benefits. If they are wounded in combat they should receive 1 million dollars - if they are killed I think the family should receive 3 million. For regular duty at home I believe they should be paid 40-60 thousand per year with housing medical and education.
Pensions should be reflective of the yearly non-combat salary.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:01:12 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:01
Lex Llewdor
Why? Why should we pay them so much?
And wouldn't that wound bonus encourage soldiers to get wounded just so they could cash in?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:25:29 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:25
suedo
Somewhat like giving politicians pensions - they practice retirement.
I have answered what I think - what would you pay them?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:27:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:27
Lex Llewdor
Okay - for the sake of argument, I'd start enlisted men $30,000/year, and start at $40,000 for officers. A career soldier should expect to see his annual salary approach $100,000 as he gains rank.
Since we cover all the training, that seems pretty reasonable. They get to travel, work outside. That's a pretty good job.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:46:49 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:46
suedo
Okay that's a good start - what about when in combat?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:58:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:58
Lex Llewdor
Why would I pay more to be in combat? That's the soldier's job. Not being in combat would be a bonus.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:11:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:11
wyly
yeah, I thought over giving them danger pay and had a change heart...., after all the benefits they recieve that the rest of don't get and the fact that for the vast majority of them they face no danger their entire careers their regular pay should suffice...I've had a number of family members in the forces they've all done very well for basically doing nothing but be ready if something should happen....if you don't like the thought of being shot at why join the forces don't expect sympathy for your choice of career
[updated Fri Oct 10 00:58:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 00:58
suedo
So what are they worth?
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:11:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:11
Lex Llewdor
I told you what I'd pay them.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:46:11 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:46
suedo
yes you did - the prp fellow...
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:49:18 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:49
wyly
I don't object to danger pay that's fair but not the numbers you suggest...for 200,000 plus benefits we could hire a mercenary force that would do the job and save us billions and we could lay them off as soon as the conflict is over, no pensions, no disabilty pay...
for the families..whatever his/her estimated income would be untill retirement..
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:35:27 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:35
suedo
Again wyly thanks for your honesty. I think this is a subject to be talked about openly. The politicians just sit there and say "support" our troops - life on the line - paid the ultimate price - just opportunistic.
I believe one should be paid that amount for a war zone in combat - I appreciate your take...
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:38:20 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:38
prg
they are volunteers. they chose that job. and everyone knows what a soldier's primary duty is: to risk death while inflicting the risk of death on the enemy. if you don't know this, what do you think they do, exactly? veteran-ary medicine???
and the best way to support our troops is to bring them home. and have them stop being cannon fodder for US geo-economic interests.
[updated Fri Oct 10 01:16:24 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 01:16
suedo
So what are they worth?
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:11:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:11
suedo
What I find interesting is not stating what you believe the troops are worth. Rhetoric a plenty but no real position on the value of a soldiers job.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:37:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:37
Lex Llewdor
The value of the soldier's job is determined by the price at which we can attract competent soldiers. We can just pull a number out of the air.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:49:06 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:49
wyly
how does 50% of westerners voting conservative add to western discontent and alienation? what about the other 50% who don't support the conservatives are our opinions not worth anything?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:04:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:04
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Inter provincial Immigrants from the east i'd expect :) :) :)
Plus - realistically it would be wrong to assume the other 50 percent is happy with confederation. For example - only a small portion of that 50 perent votes lib. Some may feel that the ndp represents a good protest vote and would treat the west better than the libs did. Others may think the same sort of things of the greens. It's not like they're all liberals.
This is a democracy - and if half the people are pissed, that's a HUGE percentage in a country with 4 choices (in the west).
So you get a say. But the majority rules, and if more people are pissed at how ottawa is treating the west - then that's the way it is.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:52:03 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:52
wyly
it's also wrong to assume that those who vote NDP are a protest vote,
it's also wrong to assume all 50% of those who would conservative are alienated
and in that 50% who vote conservative you will find people who have voted Lib and NDP in the past and will do so again in the future...
half the people being pissed in the west is not a huge % in the total population of the country...50% of western Canada is 4.5 mill in a country of 33.5 mill...1 in 7...13-14%???
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:05:26 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:05
Foxer
I offered it as an example of one of the many reasons someone might vote ndp instead of cpc or liberal. As opposed to being happy with confederation or the federal gov't.
And considering the cpc platform, it's fair to assume most supporters at least believe that confederation is in need of fixing. They may not be seperatists, but it's one of the main tenants that the senate will be reformed and provincial authority respected.
And half the people in the west is a huge percent of the west. Why the hell do we care what someone in quebec thinks about how we're treated in confederation? The whole POINT is that people in the east shouldn't be telling us how to live and we shouldn't be telling them.
So it's utterly irrelevant what people in the east think about how the west is treated. That's like saying that quebec should be told to shut up because they have even a smaller population than western canada - go tell them that and see how well it goes for you.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:30:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:30
I agree 100% the West needs to express the frustration of the urban centres GTA, Montreal should not dictate social reengineering.
If any province wants to have more ARTS, more education, more services for the city let them pay for it by raising provincial taxes.
When you have to balance your books priorities become very clear.
Want to have your property tax shoot up 25% ? Fund your provincial programs.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:11:17 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:11
Foxer
And thats' a big factor in western alienation. Quebec wants more arts so the west has to pay more in taxes to fund it? Why? If they want it they can pay for it.
There's an old saying - if quebec has an itch, the west gets scratched. In other words, if quebec or ontario thinks something is good - somehow that turns into a law the west never wanted and we get to pay the bills along with them. If the west wants something, ontario says 'too bad - we don't care'.
Which is what creates that resentment and spreads western alienation and quebec separatism.
What works best is simply to let the provinces worry about everything that doesn't truly NEED to be national. Want more arts? Great - pay for more arts. Want a carbon tax? Great - have your local gov't put it in place. Don't try to inflict it on others just because YOU think its a good idea.
Military, diplomacy and trade agreements, that kind of stuff all HAS to be national. Stick to that.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:18:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:18
HoldenCaulfield
So what are you saying that Albertans don't appreciate or enjoy the Arts? What society in the world would be proud of that, could you imagine the Greeks, or the French, or the English bragging about how they don't support the arts. All civilized countries provide support for arts and culture.
And what exactly does Ballet, or Art or Music have to do with Social Engineering?
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:54:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:54
Culture, Arts, Sports, Indoor Pools, Subways, Daycares etc
I don't care. You want a Ballet in your town, pay for it yourself.
You want a NHL team and stadium for you soccer, pay for it yourself. GET OUT OF MY WALLET.
It's not very complicated. You love culture, parks etc go raise the funds and raise your property tax to pay for it.
Stop using my federal taxes for pet projects.
I'm glad Chretien got a fountain in his riding compliments of our tax dollars.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:41:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:41
wyly
Harper has reversed his decision on arts funding ...a western PM from Calgary is giving in to Quebec opinion, so how is this the fault of eastern urban centers?
why do so many insist politics as always as simple as west vs east when it's more much more complex....right vs left, urban vs rural, socially progressive vs repressive moralists, fiscally conservative vs fiscally progressive and any combination of the above
[updated Fri Oct 10 00:31:31 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 00:31
larryl
Just filled out my entry for Nanos contest on election prediction . Any guesses on how well our resident experts will do ?If one of us should happen to win the contest apologies from all posters of the opposite political stripe should be posted with congratulations attached. We could have our own contest but it would be on an honorary basis unless we could send our predictions to another poster to be revealed after the election. I will post my predictions on election night around 8 P.M. as I will be at the election office counting ballots after the polls close. This could be fun.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:05:46 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:05
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
I registered, but how do I actually make my picks?
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:15:49 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:15
larryl
Fox. I got an e-mail today from Nanos and followed the directions. Maybe they started with people who have been registered the longest.If you are registered you will probably get the same message. It is based on predictions of voter percentages , not seats so it will allow a wider range of possibilities with less chance of ties. How would 39.1 % for the Liberals , 22.6 % CPC. sound ? Not very likely but I can dream.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:36:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:36
MichaelFox
I checked my email after and saw it. Thanks. I'll wait until Saturday to enter, I suppose.
I wonder if gohabs1 and company will submit entries with the Liberals @ 40% support.
[updated Thu Oct 09 18:46:50 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 18:46
Using last years numbers with a small up tick to CPC and NDP with Lib stalled at 29%.
That 1K will come in handy.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:25:16 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:25
Deb Prothero
Nik;
If you could do anything different in your methodology to improve the reliability your numbers, what would you do?
During this election, some of the regions (I'm thinking specifically of the Atlantic region), were chaotic from day to day. It was like a roller coaster ride. Does that truly reflect the mood of the voters or was it the survey instrument or size of the sample that affected the daily numbers most.
Thanks
Deb
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:04:07 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:04
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Nik - Question CPAC
Much has been made of Stephane Dion and his "weak" leadership. This to the point of suggesting after this election is over - he will be turfed as the leader. My question is - If Stephen Harper does not get a majority is this the end of his political career?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:15:14 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:15
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
wyly
I would think it depends how close the results are, if Harper just misses a majority Dion is gone, if it's a close race and Dion picks up seats he stays
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:38:41 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:38
suedo
If Harper is minority with less is he gone? I figure if he does not get majority he's gone.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:55:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:55
MichaelFox
Stephen Harper will only step down as leader if he loses outright. With a minority, he can continue to govern. Assuming he gets a minority, I believe he'll ride it out at least until the economy improves. I don't believe that the Liberals will defeat the government on a confidence vote - they simply don't have any money for another election right now.
As for Dion, if he can keep it as close as it is right now, I think he'll ask to stay on as leader. I think Liberals might give him that second chance, primarily because the expectations of their chances in this election were so low, and they have (so far) exceeded them. Also, it comes down to money again - can Ignatieff and Rae fight another leadership race?
Two elections from now, Justin Trudeau will be the Liberal party leader.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:45:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:45
suedo
I think Harper goes with another minority. I think that Dion will get the contributions back for two reasons - an anticipated win next time around and the party appears to be reuniting.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:58:06 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:58
wyly
Harper if he loses he is gone, if he returns with another minority government a leadership convention which he may or may not win
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:04:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:04
suedo
This sounds accurate.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:05:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:05
Darryl
If the CPC wins - even a small minority - he isn't going anywhere. The liberals will be in no position to have another campaign for years.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:55:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:55
suedo
Actually if Harper decreases the fortunes of the Liberals including contributions will be back.
The an election would be affordable.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:12:57 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:12
Lex Llewdor
Back? The Liberals never had contributions. The Liberals have no history of collecting large volumes of donations from individuals. It has never happened.
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:52:08 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:52
uf318
Nik,
Do you have any seat projections based on the current numbers?
Thanks,
Gary B.
Victoria BC
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:31:46 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:31
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
hollinm
Hi Nik:
If Harper is considered in each of your polls to be the best PM by a wide margin then why would we see a tightening in the polls. Does it not go, thinking logically, that if Harper is considered the best PM the voters would support his re-election?
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:38:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:38
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peggy
I wish-Canadians unfortunately don't go with their gut-they tend to follow the spin as they don't have time from day-to day to watch what the analyists say so although they know he's the better man for the job, they hear all the fear mongering from the left and flee.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:40:54 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:40
Virginia Peartree
Q. What was Alexander Graham Bellanovski famous for?
A. He invented the telephone poll.
[updated Thu Oct 09 19:48:45 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 19:48
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
dgbeaulne
hoooo boy....
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:55:12 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:55
hollinm
Nik:
There is no question that the Conservatives have had gaffes during this election campaign and Harper himself has made some unhelpful comments. However, why in the world would the Canadian electorate support a Liberal party who has a leader Canadians, in every poll, say they don't much like and who has a policy of proposing huge new taxes and is proposing to spend up to $50 billion on new program spending (which amounts to wealth re-distribution)? Does the old saying go Tax me I'm stupid apply to this campaign?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:00:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:00
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Peggy
I think that when they brought out Rae and Iggy-it reminded them that although he's (Dion)incompetent they think he has some capable people around him? I don't think they are great but someone does I guess.The more he stayed hidden the better the polls got for the Libs.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:47:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:47
charlie72
Well, people are raelly simple minded. All they hear is from the lefties about how "Bush American" Haper is. That and the brilliant usual Liberal move of promising the world to every interest group.
Dont forget Dion has been on TV every night with sound bites of "pensions" "savings" "mortagages" etc, even though he has no clue and any question not on message sends him confused and stammering incoherently.
He is telling people what they want to hear regardless of whether it is the truth or not. Fact is that DION is not a leader and will destroy the economy. He has been quoted as saying he was voted Liberal Leader to "get rid of the polluters". Even if his green shift is a hugh disaster he will still believe he was vindicated due to his belief of stopping pollution.
Canadians will be very sorry with him a PM over a slim majority or very strong minority. Might as well get used to it now, the Liberal brand can never really be beaten.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:55:34 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:55
Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:49:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:49
Craig
Hi Nik,
Where does Nanos' funding come from? What do you do during the non-campaign periods?
Have a great Thanksgiving.
Craig
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:11:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:11
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
DGoodchild
Nik: Given Mr. Harper's training and experience as an economist, will today's Afghanistan report and the difference between his cost estimate and Mr. Page's cause a problem for the Prime Minister?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:21 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:20
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
DGoodchild
Thanks for the answer Nik.
Have a happy Thanksgiving.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:54:35 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:54
wyly
it's one of two answers, he's either a crap economist or he lied
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:21:20 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:21
DGoodchild
It's funny you put it in those words.
That was exactly my argument weeks ago; only I was referring to the income trust tax. Mr. Harper is either a good economist and did foresee the need to tax them (and therefore lied deliberately) or he honestly didn't foresee the need and is therefore an incompetent economist.
Do I see a trend emerging here? LOL!
Cheers,
DGoodchild
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:29:02 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:29
Mr_Michael
Is this a dream!
Mr. Layton as made it very clear to everyone that the only position he wants is to be PM of Canada...so on the 15th October will he then resign as leader of the NDP party as he had made it crystal clear he only wants to be PM and not just a mere leader of a 3rd place party.
On the 15th October, when Mr Harper wakes up to find that he has not achieved the 155 seats needed...what will he do, as he has clearly stated on the record that he cannot work with the other parties ineffectively carrying out Canada’s legislative business.
Answer: Mr. Harper then should visit the Governor General advising her that he will not be able to form a majority government and that he is resigning to allow the Governor General to ask the leader of the official opposition to form the next Government.
Yes, this is a dream...
What's not a dream is spending another 300 Million!!
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:20
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Layton will gain seats - again. His party isn't likely to turf him when election after election he builds their strength.
Harper and supporters always knew there was a good chance he'd get a minority. But again - if he gets gains people will give him one more chance at the next election without a lot of fuss. If he gets in the 140 - 150 range they'll be quite pleased, even if it's not a majority.
And i daresay that while he couldn't work with the LAST parliament - he'll wake up with a NEW mandate and the other parties (especially the libs) will be stoney broke. So - he gets two more years of pushing them around and getting more or less what he wants before he's got to go back to the polls.
And while that may not be your dream - trust me its' better than the nightmare of spending 80 billion dollars like dion wants. :) with 40 billion in new taxes to fund it. Or layton's plan of taxing the businesses that provide jobs by 50 billion bucks. That is a true nightmare for canada.
Fortunately - it won't happen.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:44:19 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:44
In your dream you want the Carbon Tax? In exchange for some income tax costs that are not neutral. So you want to pay more going forward for everything?
You want another 500 million in arts spending?
You want Canadian Banks and large companies converted to Trusts that no longer pay taxes to the government? You want taxpayers to pay the shortfall?
You want an extra 33 billion on top of what the CPC has budgeted for infrastructure?
You want seniors to lose income splitting?
You want serious offenders to have home arrest?
You want billions sent to Ottawa for contingency funds?
You want our GDP to grow 4% as projected by the Liberal Platform.
That is one scary Canada. The global economy is shrinking prediction of negative or zero growth in our largest trading partner.
IMF predicts 1% growth next year in Canada. That 3% growth in GDP is my dream too but I can't pretend monopoly money will be used to pay your party.
So another list on broken promises from the party that gave you National Daycare (4x?) and CBC commercials in response to the Kyoto protocol.
I guess being honest with Canadians about the economy and making affordable promises is not part of your dream. $ 8 B or 80 B you decide.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:00:38 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:00
Dear Nik,
I am comparing the 2006 vs 2008 in the last week. Both had Harper trending negatively.
Do your numbers suggest a strategic vote with a different outcome?
Thank you
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:24:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:24
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
I've now seen the Regional Break Downs, I think that the Liberals will win this election if we keep up the push to stop Stephen Harper. The numbers if accurate have the Liberals ahead in every region of the Country, or statistically tied as in BC.
When you look at the Quebec Numbers, the seats on the Island of Montreal will belong to either the Liberals of the Bloc. When you look at the rest of Quebec, the Conservatives may be shut out.
Atlantic Canada has a larger sample now and we see that the blip from the other day is corrected and that the Liberals out front with the NDP in second place. The Tories are running third.
So what explains the Conservative 33 and Liberal 29 number. It's Alberta; 66% there support the Conservatives, a 9 point bump. But Harper doesn't need any seats there, they are all his. He is up in Sask and Manitoba, same story there, no pick ups.
Ontario in Toronto the Tories are tanking, they are behind in South Western Ontario and only tied in Eastern and Northern Ontario. Eastern Ontario is Conservative Country, I know of what I speak. The North leans NDP, this is good news with such a strong Liberal Number in that area, it means that the Liberals will likely pick up Eastern Ontario Seats. These seats used to belong to the Liberals anyway, it's not a stretch to have them come back home.
I take back my earlier predictions, I think that Harper is on the ropes, we just need to keep all of our energy towards defeating him between now and Tuesday.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:26:14 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:26
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
DGoodchild
The Liberals are up or tied in all regions of the country *except* Manitoba through Alberta. That's what you meant right? My Canada includes the praries. :)
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:31:13 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:31
HoldenCaulfield
DGoodchild
thanks for the Civics lesson, I wasn't passing comment on the Prairies I was saying the Tories already have those seats. Being up where you already have everything doesn't help you when you have to win seats.
Alberta could vote 95% for the Tories and they will get the same 28 seats they came in with before the election call.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:40:58 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:40
Foxer
What numbers are YOU reading? Nanos has the libs at 26 percent in the west and the cpc at 50 with a 5.1 margin of error. Ekos has them far ahead as well.
Nanos gives the libs a slight edge in ontario but still wihtin the margin of error and ekos has the cpc in front but still within the margin.
In quebec the libs are ahead no doubt, but it looks like the atlantics might still be a fight.
And dion has clearly stalled - which means that momentum is again up for grabs.
Alberta's small population size is accounted for in the numbers. And the other polls are specifically showing bc up as well.
At this point, unless dion can gain the inititive again (which doesn't look promising) it's going to be back to harper with a stronger minority gov't.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:39:19 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:39
Coryphaeus
I said a few days ago that it would be a LIBERAL minority. I was thinking something like 117 seats at the time. I think it will be a stronger minority than that. If you pump just the Ontario regional numbers into Hill & Knowlton's Predictor you see that the Liberals come out with a strong minority. I have been discounting the importance of shifts in other parts of the country because the west and the Maritimes and Newfoundland are very strong in favour of the Conservatives or the Liberals and subtle shifts make no real difference. The same is true with the heavy Bloc support in Quebec. A 3 to 5% shift there really doesn't change the seat count. Shifts in Ontario are very meaningful and the pickup of support in Ontario in the last few days has moved the situation from weak Liberal minority to strong Liberal minority. I think that because he did not seize the opportunity to "jawbone" the banks into line Harper has shaken the "doesn't care" label yet and he will see further losses in Ontario as undecideds move over to Liberal. He could have used the opportunity to shake (well, at least, fight) the impression that he has gone into the tank for the banks and corporations. His comments to Mansbridge about the market crash creating opportunities give him the aura of the quintessential Bay Street Conservative fat cat. The new numbers on the cost of the war will also do further damage to Conservative support.
New CPC voters out west may help the national poll numbers look better and give the impression that, for instance, "Dion has stalled" but in actuality Dion may be continuing to move ahead of he is picking up votes in more volatile territory elsewhere in Canada (such as Ontario). Dion already has greater support in Ontario than he did in the last election so I think this election may mark the beginning of Mr. Harper's swan song.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:24:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:24
Foxer
The H&K is not working right with regional numbers. Sorry if it got your hopes up :) It's broken. It only does national accurately.
I'm sorry to burst your bubble - you're still looking at a harper minority.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:29:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:29
Coryphaeus
Just go to a region ... change the numbers for the region you want to experiment with. Feed in the split that the poll indicates. Then it changes only that region while running the predetermined splits for the other regions. It'll show the results for the region of interest, say, for instance, Ontario. After it has done that click on "All Regions" to see what effect that regional change has on the national results. But you're right Foxer if all you're satisfied to do is push the "display prediction button" it does give a warm fuzzy feeling to those hoping for a Tory win.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:39:50 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:39
Foxer
It doesn't work right on a regional level. :) It's broken. Go read up on it :)
Sorry to raise your hopes, but that's the way it is.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:48:09 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:48
HoldenCaulfield
Well I have looked up both the Nanos and the Decima numbers at Hill Knowlton and it looks grim for the Tories.
Only Ekos has the Tories gaining but when You look at the Quebec map for example they stilll have a bunch of seats. Nanos numbers would have to be dead wrong for that to be true, the Bloc is sweeping the rural regions.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:17:10 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:17
Foxer
I'm telling you bud, no word of a lie, the regional projection algorithms are broken. They don't produce accurate results. It's only useful for national results.
It's been documented - it does "weird" things.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:23:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:23
Coryphaeus
http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/
Go visit it folks. Its not broken. There is another site H&K used to use that house "the predictor" and THAT one is broken. Foxer likes the numbers that the broken one produces. He won't like the ones the working one produces. Send him your findings but don't expect any movement. He'll just continue to say "It doesn't work right on a regional level. :) It's broken. Go read up on it :)
Sorry to raise your hopes, but that's the way it is."
Kinda like Harper saying, "Yeah but he's going to raise your taxes." Its a good mantra. Keeps you relaxed ... even as your vaunted lead goes down the toilet and your day of reckoning approaches.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:19:42 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:19
Foxer
ROFL - ok, well we'll see on election day won't we ;)
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:23:38 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:23
HoldenCaulfield
Foxer look at Nanos Numbers from Today. I can't find them printed on the site, but I just finished watching the show in both French and English on CPAC. The Liberals are ahead by 12 points in Ontario, they are ahead in Atalantic Canada, the Island of Montreal tied up with the Bloc, Tories in 3rd. Out in the Rest of Quebec the Tories are running 4th.
The Liberals are ahead in every region of Ontario, except for Eastern/Northern where they are tied up (one point ahead I believe).
Yes the the Tories are way ahead in Alberta, Sask and Man, but they have most of those seats already. The Liberals are back in 2nd Place in BC, where it is heating up to be a three way race.
So that is what I based my comments on, perhaps you can find the link on the website I can't perhaps Nik doesn't put the regionals on teh wesbsite, I don't know.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:46:38 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:46
Darryl
All those extra liberal votes in downtown toronto don't really mean much since the liberals were going to win all those seats anyway. Kind of like how any increase in Alberta for the CPC doesn't mean much.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:48:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:48
HoldenCaulfield
Darryl the poll is the GTA, that's not downtown Toronto, the GTA extends out from Toronto and takes in over 2 million more people than the downtown area. The Tories were never going to win downtown Toronto, they show nothing but contempt for urban Ontario.
But GTA includes the 905 area, the Tories needed a break through there and it doesn't look like they will get it.
Eastern and Northern Ontario, this one of the stronger Tory areas, the rural areas of Eastern Ontario turned Tory blue last time. Now the liberals are tied. Northern Ontario is lumped in there, but the North is NDP Country.
South Western Ontario is also large and a mix of urban and rural, it is running with the Liberals ahead. The NDP also does well down that way in Windsor.
Here is a link to regional nanos numbers but I still can't find the page where it breaks down the specific sub regions of each province like on TV
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-9-2008E.pdf
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:05:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:05
Darryl
I'm aware the poll included more than just downtown but any poll that shows a change that includes downtown numbers doesn't mean much. If the liberals go from 50% support to 60% support in downtown it doesn't mean anything - just like going from 70% to 80% in Calgary doesn't mean anything.
The most important polls would be a breakdown for just 905 or just other specific areas. Strategic council had a breakdown today like that and I believe it showed the CPC ahead in the close ridings from 2006 in 905 area by about 40% to 34%. In the 519 ridings that were close in 2006 they had the CPC at 41% and the liberals actually in 3rd at 22% with the NDP at 23%. For the other close ridings in all of Ontario from 2006 they had it 36% CPC and 27% liberal.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:14:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:14
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden, the Liberal growth in Ontario is not in the GTA but in the 519/905 ridings. This is a known fact now. The other issue with Alberta being so strong is that its somewhat counterbalanced by the strong Liberal showing in the GTA. Stripping those anomalies out still gives the Libs an advantage because there are more seats in the GTA than in Alberta.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:00:18 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:00
Foxer
It's not even a close to three way race in bc. It dipped, but it's climbed back up significantly according to both local polls and ekos, who has a much higher sample. Ekos has the cpc way up in bc, a long long way outside the margin of error and when you look at nik's margin - they could just about be that far apart in reality. More importantly they're tracking an upward trend over a few days now.
As to ontario's breakdown i don't know if it's quite what you think it is. Looking at the other polls, and the margin of error, the race would seem to be a lot closer than you'd suggest.
It's always hard to say in a volitile voter situation - but there does seem to be much evidence to suggest that niks' regional numbers aren't quite reflecting the shifting dynamic.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:12:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:12
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Foxer give it up and try to deal with the impending loss like a real man and accept the facts in front of you. The Liberals are likely to form a government and the 144 seats you forecast for the Tories is an impossibility. They have lost Quebec big time and its not coming back. Harper's war room is fully aware of that and is focusing on keeping as many seats as possible in Ontario. Read the body language man!!!
I AM NOW GETTING COMFORTABLE WITH 70 LIBERAL SEATS IN ONTARIO.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:05:54 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:05
Foxer
ROFL - Well i'll give you this - you've take the liberal mantra of 'Keep telling the lie often enough and hope it comes true' to a new level :)
You realize i'm going to laugh my ass off at you on voting day :) - that's GOT to be bugging you :)
[updated Fri Oct 10 00:19:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 00:19
Darryl
One of the most important interviews of this campaign happened today.
Steve Murphy of ATV news was interviewing Stephane Dion and asking about what he would have done different during the last few weeks related to the stock market meltdown if he were Prime Minister instead of Mr. Harper. Dion's answers are interesting...
Here is a video of the interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrliDQs1Jps
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:35:57 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:35
35 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
WOW.
That was just horrible. I wonder if he would have an answer if he were asked yet one more time.
I have a feeling he wouldn't. 30 days of meetings aren't going to solve worldwide economic problems.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:40:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:40
Darryl
The question from Steve Murphy was the perfect one I would like to know the answer for. Dion keeps saying how the Prime Minister has messed up the situation but I really want to know what Dion would do differently. Of course the answer is that he would have done exactly the same thing as the Prime Minister did but he obviously didn't want to answer the question truthfully. Dion is just taking the carrot that was given to him by chance and is riding the stock market plunge and attempting to blame the Prime Minister for it all.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:43:55 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:43
larryl
fox. The question was poorly worded and hypothetical.This whole thing is being played up to keep us from talking about the complete reversal of Harper's statement yesterday that he had no plans and no need to bail out our banks. The finance minister has just miraculously found $25 BILLION to bail out banks . Where did he get this money and does this mean we just went into deficit which Harper said he would never do. I would prefer Dion making a gaffe answering a dumb question rather the CPC spending a huge sum to bail out his corporate friends again wouldn't you?
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:23:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:23
MichaelFox
Poorly worded and hypothetical? It was a pretty simple question. Dion has been going on and on about how Harper should be doing more to help the economy (which, incidentally, is still growing, given the employment numbers that came out today). Dion couldn't come up with 1 or 2 *specific* suggestions on what Harper should have done?
.. and your comments on the $25 Billion in mortgages that they discussed today indicate that you don't understand the topic.
I understand that you're just playing politics and you would criticize Harper regardless of what he does, so I'll let it go.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:11:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:11
Peggy
Absolutely incredible especially since he did so "well" in the debates and seemed to have all kinds of answers and no problem understanding alot more complicated questions???? This had nothing to do with understanding the question or language-he's just plain confused as to what to answer unless he's rehearsed to death prior to.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:54:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:54
Darryl
You mean he doesn't spontaneously come up with the "Richer, Greener, Fairer" line all the time? It's getting almost as annoying as the lines Jack was repeating over and over back in the 2006 campaign.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:57:06 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:57
larryl
Peg. There is no answer to the question so it might be hard to come up with one. Harper didn't do anything to prevent this so for Dion to have an answer would make him a better economist than any one in the world including the alleged one running our country.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:28:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:28
MichaelFox
So, you're admitting that there is nothing more that Harper could have done?
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:11:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:11
larryl
Fox. There was things that could have been done but one would have had to foresee how severe this collapse was going to be. Am I the only one who predicted this global collapse back in May as I proved this morning.What they did this morning with the bail out is cause panic amongst investors who believed what he said yesterday. How can we trust Harper . Of course maybe he knows the election is lost and wanted to steal our money before he left. The taxpayers just got stuck with a bill for 25 billion.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:35:59 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:35
Peggy
Why did he need to know the tense of the question. He said he was confused as to whether Steve was asking if he was PM now or next Tues. If you have a plan it shouldn't change from Thursday to Tuesday??
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:15:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:15
larryl
Peg. The question was poorly worded and most have admitted that. If you want to ask what someone would have done differently why would you start your question with " if you are P.M. today " If you analyze the question you see there is no answer to it and the guy conducting the interview should be criticised for asking it. Why not ask " If you were P.M. a year ago what would you have done differently?'" Of course there was no financial collapse a year ago so why would any one know how to answer that question without a crystal ball predicting this melt down. Dion did the right thing by trying to clarify what the question was and not just making up an answer .
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:28:30 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:28
HC in AB
Notwithstanding all of that, his answer still was "well, in the first 30 days I will have some meetings". So he has no plan, no knowledge etc. And you want this fellow to be in charge????
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:35:13 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:35
larryl
HC. Can you plan what you will do will do next month if your better half has not told you she spent all your money yesterday. When he gets a look at the books and finds out Flaherty has fudge the numbers and we are in a deficit situation his plan would be useless. Consultations with experts and the premiers would make sense to me. His plan is based on what Pinnochio has released but that might not be accurate. Ask the Liberals in Ontario how much of a deficit they were left with by Eves who claimed there was no deficit. They all use their own bookkeeping methods until the auditor general shows up to uncover the truth. Plan your work and work your plan works wonders in any endeavour. No government has ever started implementing their agenda the after the election. There is a transition of power that takes time.
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:55:34 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:55
HoldenCaulfield
He expalined on CBC Morning that he and the interviewer had agreed to start over and that this is normal in taped interviews, which it is. CTV took it upon themselves to show the outtakes because CTv is a right wing network.
Mr. Dion admits that English is not his first language and hypothetical questions are not east to translate, anyone who teaches a second language knows this.
The fact that Harper jumped on this so quickly shows how mean and without class he is. Harper and the Conservatives should be very careful, because the French Community,Quebec and new Immigrants are not going to like it much if this becomes about someone nit picking Dion's difficulty with English. I'm sure there are many Francophones who are saying today that they understand Dion.
Harper has already pissed a whole lot of people in French Canada off, if he wants to ensure that they rally around their native son, he will do this by attacking Mr. Dion because he is French.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:21:28 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:21
HC in AB
In the past, others of your ilk have had no issue in "nitpicking" about the linguistic abilitis of the Preston Mannings and Stockwell Days of the world.
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:36:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:36
Coryphaeus
It was a stupid, simple-minded, hypothetical question especially in view of the fact that the credit crisis has been developing for well over a year and Harper has been running up our deficit and our dollar for longer than that. What the heck does being Prime Minister today or yesterday mean or have to do with anything? The time to avert the crisis in confidence in the stock market and the crisis in the manufacturing sector was not yesterday or today or the day before yesterday. Unfortunately Dion wasn't Prime Minister when that could have been ameliorated or averted... Harper was ... and he didn't serve our interests very well at all. Dion was wise not to answer it and brave enough to abort any attempt at trying. Good poiticians quite rightly never answer those kind of questions and the fact that this interview was released by CTV confirms what I've always felt about them, namely, their stories are always skewed in favour of the Conservatives. That of course is because there has always been a lot of old conservative money in CTV and CTV management and their Tory tradition goes right back to John Bassett and the old Toronto Telegram. Nobody really says anything ... but everybody knows that if you like your job you better be lobbing home run balls to the Tory hopefuls and throwing heat at the Liberals and NDP. On the other hand, I never really felt that they had thrown their journalistic ethics out the window but I think that the release of this interview is going to cause me to have to re-evaluate that opinion.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:57:48 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:57
Darryl
Yes of course it's all CTV's fault that Dion does not have an answer and is being very hypocritical of the Prime Minister since he would not have done anything differently if he would have been in power.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:00:01 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:00
Coryphaeus
I know what you're hoping Darryl but I think that the interview makes Dion look good and certainly his mystification with the question is understandable and sincere. CTV has made a lot of money running those ads for the Conservatives and it looks like they were trying to give Harper a little freebee on the "Dion is a ditherer" campaign, this isn't going to do it. It made Dion look human. It showed he was perceptive. It showed he was decent (after all he might have gotten mad and cussed out the interviewer like I might have) but instead in the end he just laughed. Good guy. I like him!
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:04:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:04
Darryl
Oh so CTV doesn't air ads from the liberal party? I didn't realize that.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:16:12 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:16
Coryphaeus
I'm sure that the hope of snagging a few Liberal ads is all that keeps CTV from becoming more partisan than they already are.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:28:48 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:28
MichaelFox
CTV is run by Liberals and has been for a long time. Look up Ivan fecan as an example. It's not their fault that dion has nothing specific to say about his economic plan.
[updated Fri Oct 10 03:04:24 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 03:04
Is Dions inability to answer the question, or the fact he has no plan a Game Changer?
I don't think so, short answer. The outcome will depend on the strategic voting on election day.
Some will blame the CTV reporter for allowing their beloved leader to appear incompetent.
The reporter asked him 3x, each time he knew he was making no sense and asked him to restart the interview. The end he stated he would call a meeting of experts to meet in 30 days.
I suspect he knew what was being asked.
'differently and now or 2.5 years'
and was trying to answer the question and realized he had no plan and no details. He had his script.
(Call a meeting in 30 days) That's NOT a plan.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:42:08 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:42
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
CTV’s ethics as low as those of Mr. Harper
CTV has injected itself to the campaign in Mr. Harper's favour. Mike Duffy's gleeful airing of cut footage of the Dion interview with Steve Murphy is about as low as it gets.
Mr. Dion and CTV both agreed to restart the interview because the question was unclear. What would you do as PM now? What would you have done? Which is it?
The Tories have been making personal attacks against Mr. Dion for two years and they can be expected to continue to the bitter end. CTV? Mssrs. Murphy and Duffy? They broke their word, which makes them willing and shameless accomplices in character assassination.
A new classic for media ethics courses. Speaking of which, Msrrs. Duffy and Murphy and their CTV masters need to go back to school.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:36:10 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:36
Comprehension is a personal attack?
Now or 2.5 years not very difficult question.
Unedited tape is cut?
CTV is a CPC media spin station now?
Todate the question STILL exists. What would you do differently? NO REPLY. NO PLAN.
Call a meeting with experts and consult is not a plan.
Still waiting to hear what Liberal would have done/do differently since the leaders debate.....tick tock....
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:59:22 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:59
Darryl
The premiers will meet with Dion and tell him that now is not the time for Carbox Tax. Then what will Dion do?
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:06:26 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:06
Agreed.
Rae and Iggy both have said in a slowdown we wont raise taxes.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:13:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:13
Darryl
That's not what Mr. Dion says though.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:20:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:20
Agreed he wants to put his plans in to prove everyone else wrong and will not wait for economic recovery.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:47:43 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:47
Darryl
So he'll further mess up our economy just because he's stubborn.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:49:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:49
larryl
Informed. You are perfectly fluent in English yet seem to have a problem with a very clear statement that he would upon taking power meet for 30 days to assess the situation and plan his strategy. He did not say he would meet in 30 days. I learned an important lesson a long time ago. You plan your work then work your plan . The time spent formulating a plan would prove invaluable in the long run. I have to ask if there is an answer to that question why did the economist not come up with it before this stuff hit the fan? Do you the informed one have an answer ? Why are they bailing out the banks that Steve said yesterday did not need government help ? That is not a hypothetical question.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:44:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:44
Again you are making light of the "global credit crisis". We are not immune. No government or country will be.
Take your Liberal hat off and be honest.
I have watched the clip he did not understand the question. That is a comprehension problems. I have my utmost respect for Dion as human being. It does not make him a leader. That's it.
Don't you care about Canada? The crisis is real. We are not immune why are you injecting a partisan spin on the injection? Both leaders would be trying to save our country in this growing problem but you want to help or attack again?
If you think Dion would not inject the money, than say so, if Dion comes out and states that but to attack for the sake of attacking in this matter is pathetic.
Dion flubbed the interview that's it. It's not a game changer I said.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:05:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:05
larryl
Informed. Dion flubbed the interview without a doubt . That is not very important as you have said earlier. It is not going to change much. What I am concerned with is that our P.M. who is supposed to be an economist made a statement yesterday in Vancouver that our banking system is the best in the world and does not need help and he had no plans to bail them out. This morning the finance minister announced a bail out costing us 25 billion . Is that not much more important than flubbing the answer to a question that has no answer. I have asked this 3 times now but you can't or won't answer.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:26:06 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:26
So you want a PM to broadcast that the "sky is falling" our banks are not lending and that Canadians are not buying?
Don't you understand what is happening? Are you suggesting he says the above and that each country is nationalizing banks and and our global economy is in peril?
We are an export economy we are in REAL trouble. Are you going to suggest we are not and our biggest trading partner is in free fall?
Don't you care? Both would be executing injections and calmness in the Canadian population. BOTH would be acting the SAME.
Put down your liberal hat. What can any government do and would either being doing anything differently? If you think so than state the differences.
That reporters asked Dion 3x what he would do differently. It was a comprehension problem thats it. Please be honest. The interview is not a game changer. I accept that FACT. I wont blame the media for their bias. They suck every election with Tabloid Coverage!! I have empathy for his flubb. Just like you would for Harper ( lol that was funny)
What rules regarding economics? He is an economist he is not "God".
Don't you get it what is happening? This is a game changer. The global economy is getting its bill for the last 20 years. We are entering a REAL "PANIC" our TSX markets may swing up by 1000 pts 5 -10% daily.
I don't expect Harper or anyone to stop the "fear and credit crisis" all he can do is try to calm us and try to address the "credit crunch" affecting our banks and consumers.
BTW: Harper was right about some great bargains in the TSX. I sounds bad but those who can will make 10-40% after they recover. (Flubb right?)
Regardless good luck with your party and your Thanksgiving weekend.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:47:43 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:47
HoldenCaulfield
We should remember that Harper's Conservatives made fun of Jean Chretien's face and speech in ads before and this came back to bite them in the ass. I think that people will rally around Mr. Dion if they see the Tories attacking him because of his French Language.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:24:17 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:24
larryl
Holden. Unfortunately there are a lot of "Canadians" who can't stand a French Canadian especially one with an accent. They would gladly let Quebec seperate just to get rid of the French. Although you are a United Empire loyalist you do realize the contributions Quebecers have made in exploring, developing and advancing our country. There will be as many happy with the attacks as there are who will rally around Dion so not much will change. People should be focusing on the words of Harper who did a 180 overnight on the bail out. This hullaballu is just a smoke screen to keep us from seeing we just got screwed again to the tune of 25 billion dollars.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:19:02 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:19
pat_boucher
hey nik, two questions:
(1) ever thought about running for political office..and
(2) did you do polling in central nova...how is elisabeth may doing ?
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:42:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:42
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
I'm not Nik but there was a poll out last night from Central Nova that showed May is running a distant 3rd in the riding to Peter MacKay.
http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/canada/article/123563
MacKay leading at 39%, the NDP candidate 2nd at 22% and May 3rd at 19%.
She really should have picked a seat that she had a realistic shot to contend in.
[updated Thu Oct 09 20:45:37 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 20:45
MichaelFox
I believe that MacKay will win Central Nova. Furthermore, he'll take over 50% of the vote.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:02:59 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:02
Lex Llewdor
She should have picked a seat in BC.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:14:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:14
MichaelFox
She really should have. In at least 2 of the ridings on Vancouver Island she would have had a good chance. It has me very suspicious.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:37:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:37
Darryl
I wonder if she'll be taking a run at the liberal leadership in a few months? She's going to have a hard time explaining her sellout to the Green Party faithful.
I guess we'll never know if the deal was for Dion to bring her into his cabinet if he was to somehow pull the rabbit out of the hat and win the election.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:39:48 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:39
Peggy
Mike Duffy said tonight that she's directing her party in PEI to go to the Liberals=must be nice to be her candidate, especially when she has all this "credibility". I think she's had her last train ride!!!!
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:57:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:57
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Peggy, she has been directing several candidates to do that in a strategically planned move. In areas where she is not a threat to the Libs her people are just now going all out with new signs and other ads in order to capture as many votes as she can overall.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:09:56 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:09
Peggy
Which is exactly what Harper and Layton said when the campaign started and that's why she should not have been part of the debate. How can 2 people from the same party be in the debate?? She knew when she started she had no chance of getting elected in McKay's riding-it was all a liberal scheme.
[updated Fri Oct 10 22:11:16 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 22:11
Bernie
The greatest threat to Canada today is a Harper majority government. The most intelligent thing any Canadian can do is to prevent that from happening.
She is realistic and is putting her country ahead of herself. She has more integrity and credibility than any politician running in this election.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:08:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:08
HoldenCaulfield
Elizabeth May is showing that she cares more about the Environment and a moderate Government than she does about her own political future. I would call that honourable, and rare.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:24:14 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:24
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden, Liz May simply wants Harper defeated.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:11:06 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:11
Lex Llewdor
Which is why she should not have been allowed in the debate.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:47:29 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:47
larryl
Pat. Nik does not answer questions as this site is monitored by a person paid to do it. Successful people do not usually consider politics as they can make a much better living in the private sector. People like Mike Harris who had many jobs but could not do any of them successsfully turn to their last resort. They become politicians who can fool people into voting for them . What are the requirements for becoming a politician. There are none. The former minister of education in this province did not finish high school. No minimum education required even for that position. Your question sounds like you think a good pollster would make a good elected official. I for one don't want my government to govern according to polls.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:40:03 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:40
I think perhaps the dip in polls for the Conservative party is partly due to the fear brought on by the world economic situation. People don't know who to blame,...and when given the direction by the opposition,..they obviously direct their fustration towards Harper. Now that the Press released the information that Canadian Banks are in the best position (out of ALL the World Economies!!),...I predict the CP will gain in the polls. Harper explained what steps were taken to prepare for this approx. 14months ago,,,,and with the additional statements by Flaherty,...the situation is being explained. THis may help put concerned Canadian at a situation of ease.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:21:56 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:21
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
But Moin the public wants more than a positive bank report. They want to know that their Prime Minister cares and that if things get bad he will not leave them, and their mortgages and families to the whims of the market.
In the US right now people are rejecting McCain and Bush and turning to a new leader Obama, partly because he says there is a role for Government in the lives of citizens. Stephen Harper like Geo Bush and McCain doesn't like Government, he wants to leave us on our own at at time when we need all the help we can get.
All is not well, but the Conservatives want us to believe it is.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:50:02 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:50
Darryl
What do you want the Prime Minister to do? He can't make the stock market go up and down at whim.
[updated Thu Oct 09 21:51:36 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 21:51
Peggy
i get so sick of this "caring" blah blah-he's the PM he has a job to do. if he goes arouns sympathizing people then do worry and panic. This causes more damage.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:08:01 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:08
Lex Llewdor
Again, I ask you, what about McCain and Bush's ideas supports a free market right now? Bush just nationalised his financial sector, and McCain supported him in doing it.
I know you think it's a good story, and a compelling narrative, and it helps your guy politically, but it's just not true.
If lies are what it takes to get Liberals elected, fine, but I'm going to point that out eevery chance I get.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:49:28 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:49
Peggy
By the way Dion voted against these measures too! Now he's all concerned.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:01:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:01
I am not sure if this is off-topic,.but the question had to do with the Economy as asked by a reporter in NS. The question was asked of Stephane Dion;
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=6xbs7wXvh2Q
how,..or will this effect the public perception of how Dion handles pressure and if he can comprehend the issues????
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:08:15 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:08
Peggy
He was asked "If he was PM when the markets dropped what would he have done that Harper didn't do"-very easy language, repated 4 times -restarted 3 times and never did answer the question.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:12:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:12
Foxer
Yeah - just watched that on tv. Not a very good moment for dion.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:19:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:19
this is not going to help the Liberals,...and I predict a new leader will take over after the election in the Liberal party. Public perception is very important. I think Dion is feeling the pressure,....if he does not win,..that is it,...game over.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:28:47 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:28
Foxer
Quite possibly. If he gets roughly what they had before he MIGHT hold on. Or at least he'll fight to stay on.
If he loses a lot of seats he will probably be gone.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:51:49 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:51
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
It appears that both the cons and Libs are tied in the polls. If it remains that way who will get the most seats?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:18:10 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:18
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Which poll has showed them tied?
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:19:52 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:19
I can not find a poll that says they are tied???
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:30:22 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:30
Coryphaeus
Omigod! They're tied now???? I don't believe you. They're not tied! Can't be! Show me the numbers! Bluster! Bluster! Bluster!
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:37:04 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:37
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
With MOE and regional differences factored in the Libs are at least tied and possibly ahead in seat count. The formal polls don't yet tell the whole story because its still unfolding for them. The parties use different methods that come from ridings and are fed into their data bases. They have literally millions of people counted for their voting preferences and that gives them the "feel".
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:16:11 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:16
Lex Llewdor
You're making stuff up again. You don't learn.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:50:16 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:50
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
They said I was making it up when I forecast that Dion would be more than competitve. Guess what's happening now
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:40:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:40
Lex Llewdor
That your baseless prediction turned out to be correct doesn't change that it was a baseless prediction.
Results-based analysis like that would lead you to believe that betting your life savings on 19 at the roulette table was a good idea if you happened to win.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:59:18 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:59
Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:36:24 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:36
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Coryphaeus
Watching this clip show's that the previous clip was released to the public without the context of the exchanges and the answer which took place after the short segment CTV first chose to show and which is discussed in a conversation above. Now I am even less impressed with CTV and more impressed with Dion and his handling of this vague and illogical hypothetical posed by the interviewer.
[updated Thu Oct 09 22:51:32 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 22:51
This is no time for sinsitivity, the man is applying for Prime Minister of a Country not Principle of Kindergarden.
CTV has an obligation to provide the truth to Canadians.
What do you think would happen if Mr. Harper made the same mistakes in Quebec. He would not be leader of the Conservative Party for long.
Best Rgrds.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:02:31 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:02
To suggest the CTV has a CPC bias is almost comical.
Fact traditonal media including CTV has used silly fluff to hammer harper for 75% of this campaign. The media has not been doing a good job on doing reality checks of each party's policies and platform.
The reporter asked him 3x to explain what he would do about the economy if he was the prime minister DIFFERENTLY than what Harper has done.
Each time he spoke and he realized he was making no sense he asked to try the question again.
Fact whether you started today or been PM for 2.5 years what would you have done DIFFERENTLY than Harper.
Answer: call a meeting in 30 days. That's not a plan! Thats it.
His handlers were in the room. The War Room later claims it was his hearing and now he did not understand the question and he was tired.
I saw the clip unedited.
Unless the clip is reported and played 100x by all the media and reported like all the fluff against CPC it wont have an effect.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:26:39 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:26
Coryphaeus
I agree Informed1 ... Nobody really watches Mike Duffy Live. We're all taking off for the weekend. When we get back we'll vote if the turkey hasn't made us too sleepy.
But I still think it was a stupid, vague and illogical hypothetical. Kind of on a par with "You've got 30 seconds ... tell us your life story."
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:33:42 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:33
Foxer
There is nothing stupid or hypothetical about "What would you have done differently'.
Dion is critisizing how harper handled things. Fine - what would YOU have done different? That's a simple question and not hypothetical in the slightest.
What it demonstrates is that dion WOULDN"T have had a clue what he would do differently. In other words - he's not being critical because he thinks what harper did was wrong, he's being critical for the sake of being critical and he has no better plan to offer. In fact - he has no plan at all. His plan is to take 30 days to try to come up with a plan.
Not really 'leadership' is it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:55:35 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:55
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The quick and dirty comments from Harper could play as well as the Kim Campbell moment when she made fun of Chretien's disability if the libs act accordingly.
Hopefully this insensitive and stupid comment drives the Tories to fourth place in the polls behind the bloc.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:34:57 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:34
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Harpers reply was, it was clear that Dion doesn't have a plan and it will take him thirty days to come up with one.
After wathcing the segment a few times myself, I think Dion clearly understood the question, but he was caught off gaurd and he didn't have a action plan. Unless you suggest thirty days of talking to people is rapid response to this state the world is in.
Best Rgrds
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:49:00 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:49
gohabs1 Please stop wasting my time.
You offer nothing. If Harper has made this mistake you would make the charge he was incompetent.
To bring up Kim and Chretien is another deflection again. # 46?
Reality will this have any "real" impact on seat NO.
Please don't reply to any more of my comments as they have no value.
Please go help Dion and your party win.
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:51:40 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:51
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Can't stick to a debate can you? Just like you couldn't be unbiased..is that a Tory supporter sickness?
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:53:23 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:53
MAPSONBURT
Gohabs (or Mbags or what ever you call yourself today), people are SICK of your ranting. Change your name one more time. You don't debate, you rant and not even coherently. You are just noise. A liberal hack and not even a good one.
[updated Fri Oct 10 01:02:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 01:02
It will be interesting to see if this hurts the Liberals. Personally, I think any impact it might have had will be negated by Harper's over-the-top reaction. Strategically, the Conservatives should have sent some partisan back-bencher to go on the attack (as they usually do), leaving Harper's "warm and fuzzy" image unscathed. I expect to see little movement in the polls as a result, but I guess we won't really know until Saturday.
[updated Fri Oct 10 02:37:25 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 02:37
Zab
I think on the whole I agree with you. Both this event and the afghanistan stuff are getting drowned in what has suddenly become a very noisy campaign - which is killing Jack because one of the big stories of this campaign was the momentum in his campaign. The only place this might have an impact is with older people who remember the Campbell-Tory-Chretien imbroglio. If Harper had let his minions do the work it would have been a small plus overall for him. But this only adds to the "un-empathetic" personal image problem he has developed in the last few days. Gawd knows how everything that is flying around right now will play in terms of the dynamics of families getting together for thanksgiving.
[updated Fri Oct 10 06:23:08 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 06:23
Coryphaeus
You know Zab that is a very perceptive comment. Will families be talking politics around the dinner table? In my family they had a rule against talking politics but usually just after dessert there would be a political ... uh ... discussion ... anyway. My guess is that for the most part the election will not be on the Thanksgiving menu, but if it is it could have a fairly important effect. What exactly it might be however is hard to say.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:34:57 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:34
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper and Flaherty have just announced another flip flop and will support some products banks have with high risk mortgages. What a sad sack act those two are.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wbankpolitics10/BNStory/Business
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:49:05 -0400 2008]
09 Oct 23:49
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
First you say they should be doing more, and then when they actually do things to help you criticize them for it.
Since you obviously believe that you could do a better job, what would YOU do?
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:14:46 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:14
Lex Llewdor
This is a bad idea. They should absolutely not be doing this.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:52:16 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:52
wyly
can this be considered a "do over" which Harper said is not good leadership?
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:45:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:45
Lex Llewdor
You don't seem to understand what a "do over" is.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:03:22 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:03
wyly
absolutely I do, flip flopping is do-over of course if your con supporter than you for an escape clause
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:52:08 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:52
HC in AB
High risk mortgages????? The portfolio they are purchasing is all CMHC backed anyway. These are the the high ratio mortgages where people pay a mortgage insurance premium to CMHC when they take the mortgage out. This has been the case for decades and the policy of using this to give people the opportunity to purchase homes with low down payments has been supported by polititians of all stripes.
In the case that the CMHC insurance fund was inadequate to cover losses the Canadian Public would have been on the hook under any event. I stand to be corrected, but my recollection is that at one time, CMHC lended directly.
Before you go on with your obviously uninformed partisan ranting, you might see fit to educate yourself a bit, rather than displaying your complete ignorance to the whole world.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:14:03 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:14
MRM
With the economy in the forefront and the Dion interview gaffe another event went unnoticed in the media today. For the second time in a row the usually left leaning G&M editorial board came out with a strong endorsement for Harper today. An extract form the article posted on their website:
"On balance, Mr. Harper remains the best man for the job in the tough times now upon us. "
[updated Fri Oct 10 05:25:57 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 05:25
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
And they also picked Martin. The libs will be lobbying some pretty good volleys of their own today. Dion's so called gaffe was due to his physical disability and the libs will play it up as another Kim Campbell moment. That will sting the dumb tories for another few thousand votes and maybe even fewer seats. More dirty politics form the ethically challenged Harper
[updated Fri Oct 10 06:57:22 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 06:57
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_dion_shift_081008/20081009?s_name=election2008
Max
Iam from B.C. and my husband drives truck. The carbon tax here is crippling the industry and as our prices for fuel increase it is passed on to the consumers.
Everything has gone up. We pay the highest prices in Canada for fuel 126.4( more for diesel) today and the carbon tax is to continually rise till 2011 or 2012.
A lot of families can not afford the increases and if it is a long cold winter utilities will go through the roof. Everything you buy will increase.What you are promised back in taxes will in no way cover the cost increases and low income families and anyone on a fixed income will suffer.
Canadians can not afford this GREEN SHAFT we will be taxed to death by the Liberals.Even thier own top people believe this is a bad plan.
Canada is strong now let's keep it that way with Mr Harper.
MR from Mississauga
Three reasons why Dion can't be Prime Minister:
1) Even his own party doesn't want the carbon tax (see Rae and Iggy)
2) Economists worldwide are saying exactly what Harper has said and Dion has denied, "don't panic, stay steady and controlled, and the Canadian Financial system is the healthiest in the world"
3) Dion cannot answer a simple econmoic question. Contrary to the story, he did not just "misundertsand". It was repeated 3 times for him, and he repeated it back to the interviewer. He didn't remember the script
Cooler heads prevail
I voted for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the past because I was a strong supporter of Paul Martins fiscal responsibility. I can honestly say that the Liberals under Dion scare me, I believe their economic policy will hurt our economy considerably. If the Liberals economic policy scares me, the NDP economic policy terrifies me.
I have to say in my opinion, the Conservatives right now are the only party that I trust as far as not sending our economy into an outright free fall.
Phil
General: "Dion, the Russians are sending long range bombers over the arctic. They're attacking us. What are your orders?"
Dion: "I'm sorry, can you repeat the question?"
General: "What are you orders?"
Dion: "Do you mean like take out orders? Can you start over again?"
General: "We don't have time Dion. We are being attacked by the Russians. What should we do?"
Dion: "Umm...well, we are going to meet over the next 30 days and then we will have a plan."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dave
"Still, it wasn't all bad news for Dion, as two Green Party hopefuls in Quebec threw their support behind the Liberals. Danielle Moreau, a candidate the riding of Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher, even quit the race and backed Liberal rival Ryan Hillier."
Means nothing their Names will still be on the ballot and this just goes to show that the green and libs were in cahoots from the starts may SHOULD NEVER OF BEEN ALLOWED IN THE DEBATE. Harper and Layton were right.
And yes Dions green Shaft will be bad for Everyone. Dion has done nothing but fear monger about the economy telling us to beef up the Banks. Guess what?????HARPER WAS RIGHT The banks are not going collapse their strongest in the world our economy will weather the storm. Dion needs to stop scaring Canadians to get Votes i Hope Canadians hear the latest reports and Harper's Number's go way way up He deserves it. This Whole election I'm scared for Canada if anyone other then Harper wins we will go into a Hugh recession
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:37:33 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:37
MRM
parnel - Nice try. Keep making it up. The G&M supported Harper in the last election. His gaffe had nothing to do with his physical disability. I know because I have the same affliction. If you go back to the statements Dion made when he told the public about his affliction you will hear him say that he has difficulty hearing people speak in crowds. The affliction makes it difficult to discriminate between background noise and the person who is addressing you. This was not the case here. It was a one on one interview in a hotel room.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:35:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:35
Coryphaeus
"the usually left leaning G&M editorial board" ????
What are you smoking?
Yes they are left of the National Post and probably the Financial Post and most likely the Calgary Herald. It is a quality newspaper but one must understand that it always has and as far as I can tell always will favour Tory policies.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:40:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:40
Lex Llewdor
The G&M was always very anti-Reform and anti-Alliance.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:53:30 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:53
MRM
They also have never supported a Tory for PM until Harper, which makes them left leaning.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:25:17 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:25
larryl
MRM. If the job of governing is left to one man that is a dictatorship. If you want good government you had better choose a team of competent people . Harper has no team which can be clearly seen since we have not heard a word from any of them .Harper yesterday in Vancouver said we have the best banking system in the world. This morning he has decided to bail out that great system with 25 billion dollars. Where did that money come from? Are we now running a deficit?
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:48:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:48
MRM
larryl - If you have not heard anything from the Tory team you have not been listening. What we hear from the Liberal "team" is Rae and Iggy saying that Dion is wrong to impose a carbon tax. Some team! It wasn't Harper that first said we had the best banking system in the world it was the World Economic Forum and they are correct. If you had even the slightest clue about our financial system you would know that this is not a bail out and that taxpayers are not at risk in any way with this initiative and it has nothing to do with putting us into a deficit. The funds will be used to purchase mortgage debt and will be purchased by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. This a Crown Corporation that raises it’s own revenues so their funds are not factored into deficit calculations. This will allow the banks capital to lend to our businesses (mostly small business) and to lower interest rates to borrowers. At some point they will sell the debt back to the banks and likely at a profit. This is in part, what they were created to do and they do this all the time just not on this scale. This is a sound and prudent step to protect peoples business, jobs and homes from outside world market pressures and shows that this government knows what it is doing and will act responsibly to protect our economy. Even the Liberal Party members running Scotia Bank are hailing it as a the right thing to do!
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:55:49 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:55
larryl
mrm. CMHC is a crown corporation which means it is owned by the citizens of Canada. Where will they get this 25 billion to buy mortgages . If they borrow it then we the owners will be responsible for this debt. Wether the government or one of its corporations owes the money it is the taxpayers who are going into debt again. Creative book keeping does not change who is ultimately responsible for that new debt. The P.M. must have known on Thursday about the mortgage mess in order to come up with this plan. He blatantly lied to us in Vancouver when he said our banks do not need a bail out as they were supposed to be the best in the world. He had no plans to bail them out at noon yesterday but somehow found a way to do it at 8 this morning.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:56:42 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:56
MRM
larryl - I already told you this but I will do so again. CMHC generates it's own revenue. It will use it's own cash reserves to purchase the investment (not a bail-out and no borrowing is required). Like I said the total inability of left wingers to comprehend the differnece is telling and proof that we can never let them get control of the economy of this country.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:29:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:29
larryl
MRM. You don't really believe CMHC has 25 billion in cash reserves. If that were true and we the owners of that money pay interest on billions in debt at the same time, that would explain the stupidity of our politicians. We have money in one pocket but pay interest to put money in the other pocket. I don't think so.
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:46:40 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:46
Lex Llewdor
The CMHC had already guaranteed these loans. If they were covered before they're covered now. And if they're debt now, then they were already debt. There's no cost to the CMHC is doing this.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:06:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:06
larryl
Lex. CMHC insured the mortgages that people stopped paying.When I took out my mortgage I along with everyone else paid an insurance premium on that mortgage. Because I put 25% down that premium was much lower than someone with 5 or 10 % down. You do remember that. The insurance companies would have lost their shirts if we started defaulting on our mortgages. Why did Harper feel it was necessary to bail out the banks if people have not stopped paying. Does he know the economy is about to collapse and the people of Alberta in particular will walk away from the houses that were bought at inflated prices. They saw house prices climb by 25 to 30 % a year and they will fall even faster than that with this global collapse. Will tar sands oil be needed at $70 dollars a barrel if there is a severe recession or depression ? In order to be profitable the price of oil has to be above $70 . When the bubble burst in 1981 people walked away from mortgages and left Calgary at a rate of 2,000 a month. Don't get caught in the stampede this time as it will be even worse.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:08:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:08
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
1. it appears that the Cons will only win two seats in Quebec..those of the wonderful Mr. Bernier and Mme Vverner the architect of Harper's culture policy.
2. The numbers in Ontario could end with fewer than 30 tories elected there if ther current trend continues.
3. The NDP may still get shut out in Quebec as the Liberals are resurgent there and both the Libs and Bloc are fighting to split Mulcair's vote and defeat him. .
4. The Libs may hold onto all or most of their western seats.
5. The NDP are losing at least two GTA seats to the Libs and may not make the same totals as last time.
6. The Greens unfortunately will again not elect anyone.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:12:35 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:12
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Yes clearly the liberal wave is sweeping the nation. :)
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:50:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:50
MRM
1. it appears that you two have gotten into the Kool-aid a little early today.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:31:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:31
The Bench is holding the bat to Dion's head, leadership contenders positioning for next convention.
"Worse yet for the Liberals, Dion had to contend with recently-published comments from star candidates - and leadership rivals - Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff which suggested a deep global recession would force a Liberal government to rethink the carbon tax."...
"But after a promising week which saw his Liberals' close a once-commanding Conservative lead, Dion was forced to shift to the defensive on Thursday at a campaign stop in Nova Scotia, where Premier Rodney MacDonald warned voters that a carbon tax would cost the province around $600 million per year."....
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_dion_shift_081008/20081009?s_name=election2008
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:29:55 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:29
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Now I know why you are UNinformed 1!!!!
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:37:51 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:37
deflection # 48
go flame somewhere else.
I have linked stories with facts and sources. A troll and a fanatic who won't accept any reality that is not their own.
His handlers said at any time. Today, 2.5 years plan? Consult with his minister to call a meeting in 30 days. That's not a plan.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:52:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:52
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
# 9007 stupid answer with no content
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:03:11 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:03
Liberals edge ahead in B.C. battlegrounds: poll
CTV.ca News
For the first time in the 2008 election, the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia's battleground ridings.
That's in stark contrast from the start the campaign period when the Conservatives were polling at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals' 25 per cent.
In polling conducted Oct. 6-8, the Liberals had 33 per cent support to the Conservatives 31 per cent, in B.C.'s key swing ridings.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_poll_story_081009?s_name=election2008&no_ads=
Goodluck.
[updated Fri Oct 10 07:59:01 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 07:59
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Don't you just love it..............NO MORE HARPER!!!!
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:38:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:38
Foxer
Two day old data. EKOS is showing the libs have slipped in bc over the last two days dramatically. Harpers speeches here have had a strong impact.
I think there's going to be a lot of very disappointed libs come tuesday :)
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:58:09 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:58
Yeah I know but I had to throw a bone out.
I am still going forward with the CPC minority and a NDP/CPC growth in seats at Lib expense.
Atlantic Canada will show the tide. If they go CPC as I predict than so will 905/519.
Urban Toronto/MTL was never in play.
I don't think strategic vote will work. It did not last time. I see a small shift in the numbers from 2006. 29% support for libs.
Happy Thanksgiving and have a great weekend.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:09:34 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:09
Bernie
There used to be a "robini" here. I wonder if he/she is related to Nouriel Roubini the famous economists and write on financial affairs. Here's a sample of what he is saying today.
"ALERT
RGE Monitor
October 9, 2008
On Thursday, October 09, 2008, Nouriel Roubini – Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics at the NYU Stern School of Business – lays out his latest views on the global economic and financial crisis and the urgent necessary actions that need to be undertaken globally.
"The U.S. and advanced economies’ financial systems are now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid, and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms."
I may not agree, but the warning is there.
Harper's not telling things as they are is irresponsible. If people know the truth they can take measures to protect themselves from the worst effects.
If they don't know and don't prepare then the situation is made much worse.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:21:19 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:21
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
September employment jump largest in 30+ years
Updated Fri. Oct. 10 2008 7:58 AM ET
The Canadian Press
OTTAWA -- Statistics Canada has surprised economists and tossed a wild card into the federal election campaign, reporting that the Canadian economy generated a record 107,000 new jobs in September.
The massive number was totally unexpected, as analysts were expecting a modest pick-up in the 12,500 range.
However, almost all of the new jobs -- 97,000 -- were part-time.
Last month's overall jump was the largest since the agency began collecting the data more than 30 years ago. The previous record month was January 2002, when 97,000 jobs were added.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081010/employment_figures_081010/20081010?hub=Canada
The Opposition will cry because "High paying Union Jobs" are lost due to the CPC.
Who is the customer of the services of these high union paying jobs? Automobiles....hmmmmm
Our largest trading partner. God Bless America and whoever they elect. It's not the Canadian way to ridicule their democracy. (Unless you belong in the Liberal,NDP. Bloc, Green)
Harper should go fix the banking, employment and housing problems in the US as well to save those jobs in Canada.
BTW thank you again for all the anti-american sentiment and trashing of our brothers in the south during the campaign.
I know the Republican Party and the millions of voters who regularly vote that ticket are evil according to your campaign.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:30:06 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:30
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Strange how this doesn`t get much play today.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:43:51 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:43
Media is chasing fluff are you really suprised?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:44:34 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:44
pamdenec
Issues seem to be taking a back seat to campaign strategy in this election. It occurred to me yesterday while I was in the dentist's chair that the upheaval in financial markets and huge spillage of government money worldwide is going to create so much economic "noise" that many international trade agreements will fall by the wayside as governments, especially the USA, subsidize domestic businesses in many industries. This is bound to hurt competitiveness in trade across borders and could cause the collapse of NAFTA, the Auto Pact, and other agreements.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:46:31 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:46
1 reply so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Don't read unless sitting down.
$ 25 Billion went to the Big 3 just before the 700 B Ponzi payout.
Your are right NAFTA, WTO all the deals will fail when the recession becomes worse in the US. Global trading chaos is spreading.
Interbank lending is stopping, every country is retreating and trying to stop the fear within its borders. It's not working. Banks are being nationalized.
Our auto industry can not survive an American protectionist agenda.
The Big Three will be fail if GM is allowed to fail. Go by any dealership check out the traffic.
Chrysler might survive being smaller and having restructed.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:58:02 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:58
larryl
The supposed gaffe yesterday is a farce. An unclear question asking what could have been about this financial crisis before it actually happened is ridiculous. Who knew this was coming ? Obviously no one did or they would have done something to prevent it. The question was a trap to make Dion look bad since there is no answer to the question.
CTV’s ethics as low as those of Mr. Harper
CTV has injected itself to the campaign in Mr. Harper's favour. Mike Duffy's gleeful airing of cut footage of the Dion interview with Steve Murphy is about as low as it gets.
Mr. Dion and CTV both agreed to restart the interview because the question was unclear. What would you do as PM now? What would you have done? Which is it?
The Tories have been making personal attacks against Mr. Dion for two years and they can be expected to continue to the bitter end. CTV? Mssrs. Murphy and Duffy? They broke their word, which makes them willing and shameless accomplices in character assassination.
A new classic for media ethics courses. Speaking of which, Msrrs. Duffy and Murphy and their CTV masters need to go back to school.
[updated Fri Oct 10 08:56:51 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 08:56
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
If you're saying that CTV is being one sided did you see the interview this morning with Dion on his home network (the CBC)? That was about as 1-sided as they get. That lady asking him questions looked like they could be making a liberal ad from the interview.
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:23:56 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:23
To suggest the CTV has a CPC bias is almost comical.
Fact traditonal media including CTV has used silly fluff to hammer harper for 75% of this campaign. The media has not been doing a good job on doing reality checks of each party's policies and platform.
The reporter asked him 3x to explain what he would do about the economy if he was the prime minister DIFFERENTLY than what Harper has done.
Each time he spoke and he realized he was making no sense he asked to try the question again.
Fact whether you started today or been PM for 2.5 years what would you have done DIFFERENTLY than Harper.
Answer: call a meeting in 30 days. That's not a plan! Thats it.
His handlers were in the room. The War Room later claims it was his hearing and now he did not understand the question and he was tired.
I saw the clip unedited.
Unless the clip is reported and played 100x by all the media and reported like all the fluff against CPC it wont have an effect.
This is NOT a game changer folks. Some of us hope it would be others do not.
I support this statement. It was a comprehension problem to suggest otherwise is dishonest.
"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
[updated Thu Oct 09 23:26:39 EDT 2008]
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:28:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:28
Straittohell
Informed, CTV has hammered Harper on "fluff" for 75% of the campaign, have they? That's silly. Everyone knows that 90% of all statistics are made up. I watched the clip in it's entirety as well. The problem is that you have missed the point and mislead what happened by failing to quote the exact question. You only offer a paraphrase that revealed the INTENT of the question. Here is the actual quote: "If you were Prime Minister now, what would you have done about the economy and this crisis that Mr. Harper has not done?" Try translating it into French, and then discern the meaning. It mixed the tenses, which left Dion trying to figure out what the question really was. If Mike Murphy had said "What would you have done differently to prevent this economic crisis?", that would have been a much better question, had proper grammar, and received an appropriate answer. If English is your first language, it is easy to cut through the mess... if it is your second language, it is easy to get flubbed by the the rules filter, and get stuck trying to disect the question. Don't even get me started on how this shouldn't have even been released by CTV in the first place, or even covered by any of the media in the first place. Let's talk about that $25 billion dollar US-style bailout that happened this morning, which supposedly wasn't needed.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:01:07 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:01
So we both agree its was a comprehension problem than? Its not a game changer. I have moved on.
Global crisis are you suggesting we have partisan spin now?
Don't you care about Canada? I took off my hat, every politicans flubbs an interview or says something stupid. Get over it, I did.
The current government is trying to save our country and the spreading crisis. I dont believe Dion or Harper would be doing anything differently.
Don't you get it? I said both would be trying to save this country with restoring credit.
I don't follow the philoshy people are evil or have hidden agenda's because they don't support my party. This is bigger than any party or idealogy. Don't you care?
I think much better of my fellow Canadians in doing the right thing in this crisis.
We are having a "fear driving our markets" on a global scale.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:16:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:16
schmm
What has happened to the CBC?They are just short of having Liberal banners behind Mansbridge.I think you would have to shake that biased publically funded corporation fairly hard to find any fair political reporting.I have been a CBC fan as long as I can remember,early 60s.What happened to being impartial?I believe the CBC is the biggest offender of all.That off duty mountie in northern Sask was reprimanded transporting PC signs yet the CBC can spend our tax money on their one sided reporting.SHAME<SHAME
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:25:16 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:25
Straittohell
I'm inclined to agree with Informed1 and move on at this point. CBC can be accused of favouring Dion, but all media groups that allow Harper the right to vet questions before an interview are all failing in their own right.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:31:16 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:31
Straittohell I agree 100%
Our traditional media SUCKS. They spent 75% chasing fluff and not holding the spotlight to each party and the policies.
We LOSE. I don't care what party you follow. Its your right.
We lose cause they are not reviewed and Canadians dont get the truth.
Do you think the CTV is Tory biased? I don't.
Fox News is a nutwing agenda. I would not call that media righwing. They scare me.
National Post and the Sun Media Group is right wing.
Toronto Star- Liberal
Global TV- Liberal
CTV- Liberal
A "flubb" is a news media dream. It's about the ratings not about the content. They must be love that clip! We need a clip of Harper kicking a puppy for the CBC now. I don't like the CBC because they are anti-american and are getting tax dollars.
Voters are staying away. I predict another lower turnout from 2006 another 1% drop.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:37:48 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:37
larryl
schmm. Are you saying the at issue panel on the National are a bunch of Liberal supporters. Andrew Coyne and Alan Gregg would love to hear they have switched parties. Did you see Mansbridge's interviews of the party leaders.I thought he was actually harder on Dion than Harper. I guess it all depends on your bias.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:36:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:36
Lex Llewdor
The At Issue panel is quite balanced. Even Chantal Hebert makes sensible points.
But the reporting is fr from balanced. Remember when they demoted Terry Milewski for investigating the government?
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:10:54 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:10
Harper is growing into the job
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
".... Mr. Harper has governed moderately and competently for nearly three years. He has not taken the country in dangerous new directions or significantly eroded the capacity of the government to act, when necessary, in the public interest. He has been side-swiped, at least on the emotional level, by an international economic crisis of epic proportions. But he has gotten the big things right."
"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not.
If you want to meet the most inflexible head of a major political party, Mr. Dion takes it in a cakewalk. He's had a relatively strong week to be sure, but has never been much inclined to make the kind of mid-course corrections required in uncharted waters. He is a priest not a proselytizer, better at righteousness than salesmanship. The Green Shift has been an electoral disaster not because a carbon tax/income tax swap is a bad idea, but because his proposal is ill-timed, ill-considered (why mix an anti-poverty initiative into a tax on greenhouse gas emissions?) and ill-presented. You cannot be a leader without creating followers and Mr. Dion has failed to attract followers to his signature policy."
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:22:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:22
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Straittohell
Informed1, I read this whole editorial, and it appears to have a giant set of blinders on. Harper has NOT governed "moderately and competently" for these almost three years. He has been stymied by opposition parties objecting to his more questionable initiatives, and has passed bills by taking the unprecedented step of making most votes matters of confidence, knowing full well that neither the Liberals nor a majority of Canadians were wanting an election. He has been beset by numerous problems with his Ministers failing to be good leaders or managers, which calls his own judgement and leadership into question. His operatives released that infamous manual designed to disrupt committee work so that he could foster an fractured parliamentary environment and then have an excuse to call an election. Classifying lakes as toxic dumping grounds, firing an arms-length nuclear safety lead, disasterous food safety policies, understating the costs of the Afghanistan mission, muzzling his caucas, using tax-dollars to send MP mailouts that look more like election ads, and calling an illegal ellection are all examples of growing into a job in the worst way. Noting that Dion is a decent man with great integrity and courage, and then saying he is "not a leader" hardly makes for logical journalism. Having courage, integrity, intelligence, and a TEAM FOCUSED approach is exactly what we want from our leaders. The Globe and Mail, and apparently you, have bought Harper's two year "not a leader" campaign against Stephane Dion hook, line and sinker.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:28:45 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:28
You have listed so many issues without any basis of fact other than spin.
The Food Crisis is a direct result in cutback by the Federal Government cuts by Martin,Goodale (to say otherwise is dishonest) check my links in my comments. I researched the claims before I repeast spin. Do you?
Did the CPC move fast enough to restore funding cuts to Food Saftey Inspection? NO.
In the 39th Parliment the CPC could not have passed anything without support from the parties.
If you dislike a specific bill than defeat the party voting or abstain from it.
Democracy works. Any party with enough votes can make the government fail. To suggest it is responsible for them to sit in the HOC to collect salaries and make speeches against and than not vote is dishonest. One vote for or against its their duty. They failed us.
If Dion were to win and Harper sat on his HANDS I would hold the same contempt.
Our democracy is not for any party to hold hostage and if a party wants to play "russian roulette" than they will be held accountable by the voters.
I will gladly accept the vote and don't claim ownership of other party votes.
Goodluck in your leader and his election.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Attacking the record for the last 2.5 years is hypocritical. Unless your party voted against it. Its our system. Sitting on your hands because "Canadians" don't want an election is dishonest. They were elected to oppose bills against your interests.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:04:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:04
Straittohell
I raised those examples not for spin, but to circle back to a point. Regardless of the detailed analysis that you offered (and which I don't entirely agree with), all of the examples I listed involve Harper acting in bad faith in his role as Prime Minister. Slag the Liberals for abstaining on non-confidence motions if you like, but those bills shouldn't have been made non-confidence motions in the first place, which speaks to Harper's jaded leadership style. (he did frame a lot of this election about leadership, didn't he?) The NDP knew full well that the Liberals were going to abstain because they weren't ready for an election either, so they voted against it without having to deal with the fallout, thereby having their cake and eating the Liberals' too. Argue about food safety cuts by the Liberals if you wish, but the Conservatives still handled the listeriosis fallout badly, and set a negative leadership tone through the actions and comments of their Agriculture Minister. I notice that you didn't touch on my other points, so I will restate them and connect them back to the leadership and accountability piece. The firing of the nuclear safety commission lead was not an appropriate response to the isotopes problem, regardless of the differing opinions on whether she was too fastiduous about following the regulations. Any action taken against her should have been after some kind of review once everything settled. Harper and Lunn did not act appropriately. Harper campaigned on transparency and accountability, yet could not provide the leadership and accountability for government departments to provide forthcoming data regarind the Afghanistan costs, and did their best to delay the release of the information at hand. Classifying lakes really as toxic dumping grounds really did happen (no spin there) is another example of providing leadership in a direction contrary to public interest and the environment. Few would debate that his caucus is the most controlled and scripted in redcent years, resulting in less engagement with the people whom they are supposed to represent. I'm having trouble finding the "spin" that you mentioned here. The handbook on disrupting parliamentary committees? No spin there either, it exists, and no one would agree that it should, it is just another example of a leaders acting in bad faith under the democratic umbrella that elected him. I like how you dismissed the bulk of my examples as spin and then engaged me on the only ones that could loop back to the Liberals in some way. The bottom line is that the editorial you referenced talked about competent government and good flexible leadership from Harper, and I just tossed out a bunch of examples that raises questions about the articles central thrusts. The editorial was light on examples to support it, so I filled the gap... You have a happy thanksgiving as well. Regards...
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:38:35 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:38
I did not dismiss them. In fact I believe you believe no single government should act like a dictator.
Dion should have called him on those bills. I expect Harper to do the same.
I dont tolerate bullies or ask my mom to help me if I can 'act' for myself.
The bills and confidence of motion is a non-issue for me.
Have a position based on principle and defend it to the voter, they will let you know whether or not you were wrong.
Either way if an election happens as a result I did not flip or claim "Canadians" don't want an election. That is my track record on that bill.
Leadership means you dont hold an idealogy or party above the principle which do nto change.
Winston Churchill voted and crossed floors on several of those principled decions.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:34:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:34
Please be civil, all Canadians are being affected.
Ottawa buying $25-billion in mortgage pools
SHAWN MCCARTHY
Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 8:30 AM EDT
"This initiative by no means signals problems in Canadian mortgage quality or mortgage market fundamentals," they said. "The policy initiative is strictly designed to address liquidity and funding pressures at Canadian banks that is a by-product of an evolving global credit crisis."
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wflaherty1010/BNStory/Business/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:38:03 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:38
10 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
larryl
Informed. Diamond Jim made the announcement and is now on a plane to New York. I would love to ask what happened overnight to change the governments mind about bailing out the banks. Where is he getting the 25 billion ?
[updated Fri Oct 10 09:59:00 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 09:59
Don't you care or understand what is happening? Take off your partisan hat and put on your human hat please.
Don't you understand what this global crisis is doing?
All countries are retreating and nationalizing their banks. No one is immune. Be honest for the sake of this country.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:19:40 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:19
larryl
Informed. Are you saying we should follow other nations lead and nationalize our private banks. The bank of Canada was nationalised in 1938 but somehow we ended up with a 600 billion dollar debt . Why did we not bail out the government back then if it is appropriate to do it now. The difference is the mess now is in the private sector and the public will get stuck with the bill for this bailout. There is nothing any one can do since the damage is done . Throwing money at the problem will not do much to solve this crisis. I care as much as any one but realize it is too late. Measures should have been enacted when chicken little started screaming the sky is falling but we were labelled left wing wackos by the likes of MRM.
[updated Fri Oct 10 10:53:40 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 10:53
Yikes!!!
I did not suggest that. I am opposed to any Ponzi scheme of any level of government.
Let the S.O.B.'s fail. Speculators are trying to get money out. Let GM fail etc. I dont have a golden parachute do you?
If you are over extended because of greed and your credit than you need to get hit.
I dont want the American or European plans that I have seen.
I am reading and I don't have an answer what is best, I have an opinion what I don't like.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:11:19 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:11
MichaelFox
Either you don't believe what you are saying, or you don't fully understand the situation. Either way, we can't take your comments seriously.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:20:57 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:20
larryl
Fox. Feel free to explain what this bailout is all about.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:38:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:38
MRM
larryl - I have called you a left wing wacko in the past largely because you are so uninformed on issues that you jump to the wrong conclusions and make wacky statements that often bear little resemblance to reality. You also tend to see a conspiracy behind everything that happens. In case you had not noticed Canada's situation compared to the rest of the G7 and EU is not that bad. Comparatively we are in fairly good shape. We are not nationalizing or bailing out banks or have a run on our banks by the public. Canada just created 107,000 jobs in September while the rest of the western world is loosing jobs. We are expected to have the highest GDP figures in the G8 this year and next, despite Dion and Layton running around saying the opposite and trying to create panic for their own political reasons. We are in this situation largely because of the steps taken by this govt in the past year or so and because of the way we regulate our banks. So I guess if you do not want to be called wacko perhaps you should educate yourself and make sure that what you are saying is at least factually correct. Instead though you have chosen to follow the lead of your nasty, bigoted friend parnel.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:44:43 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:44
larryl
MRM. You have a short memory. I found my post from May that predicted a global economic collapse that we are now seeing. If we are in such great shape why did Pinnochio just commit us to 25 billion to bail out the best banks in the world? Could you elaborate on those steps because they left no trace anywhere. Most of those jobs created are at the employment office signing up people for E.I. benefits.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:49:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:49
MichaelFox
A few additional facts, from various articles:
""The mortgage buybacks may allow commercial banks to lower their prime lending rate by about a quarter percentage point, Flaherty said. The measure won't cost taxpayers any money, and the housing agency isn't taking on troubled assets, Flaherty said. He added that no banks in Canada are at risk. "
"Unlike some other countries we are being proactive. We are taking this step now to avoid a situation where there would be a lack of availability of mortgage loans, a lack of availability of business loans."
Flaherty was scheduled to head to the G7 finance ministers' meeting in Washington later in the day, where he is expected to argue for tighter regulations of the kind that has kept Canada's banking system solvent in the middle of the global crisis.
The minister assured Canadians that the government is not bailing out the banks, as has occurred in the U.S., nor will the government take on risky loans.
He said the mortgage pools the government is taking off the banks' books are already insured by the government.
In fact, he said the government stands to make a small profit from the mortgages because government borrowing costs are lower than what the assets will yield in interest.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:27:32 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:27
Again I give our sitting government the benefit of the doubt. I do believe they have been responsible stewards of the country.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:40:32 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:40
suedo
It appears that Canadians may have the choice of having Dion without the carbon tax.
If Dion gets a minority - parliament has a say in structuring climate change strategies. This also avoids the harpernomics - he now believes he was the Prime Minister that created a more stable banking system.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:41:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:41
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
It's his core plaform. If Dion doesn't fight tool & nail for that carbon tax, was exactly does he stand for?
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:01:26 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:01
suedo
Canada
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:13:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:13
His main plank is the Carbon Tax. His tax grab will pay for his social programs. If he does not pass it quickly where does he get his money to stuff those yellow envelopes? (that was a cheap shot..)
Realistically he will have early Bloc support to bring a carbon tax as it will hit Atlantic, Ontario, West and not hurt Quebec as Duceppe will make him make concessions to protect Quebec to pass his new tax. Billions to Quebec to push it early.
NDP can't support Carbon Tax and neither will the CPC if Dion forms a weak minority.
Ontario will take it the chin again for the "good of Canada"
Agreed?
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:51:56 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:51
MRM
Has anyone read the Don Martin article on the NP site? This article proves what many have suspected all along. That Don Martin is a Liberal party hack! This is such an obvious and weak attempt to spin this into something that it is not that his version of events are laughable. They border on the absurd and are devoid of any reality. Here is why I say this:
1. CTV had every right to air this. If Harper or any other leader had been in a similar situation and the network hid it from the public guys like Martin would be screaming from the rafters that they were being biased. And guys like Martin would be penning articles about why they candidate in question was unfit to be P.M.
2. Anyone who watches the clip knows that it was not an overly difficult question. It was also explained to him in French. I need say no more on that because the clip speaks for itself. To say any different is just not credible.
3. Dion’s medical condition has zip to do with this. I know because I have the same affliction. If you go back to the statements Dion made when he told the public about his affliction you will hear him say that he has difficulty hearing people speak in crowds. The affliction makes it difficult to discriminate between background noise and the person who is addressing you. This was not the case here. It was a one on one interview in a hotel room.
3. How is the PM’s response “showing his mean streak”? Again anyone listening to his comments knows that his response was actually a bit muted. He said:
"When you're running a trillion-and-a-half-dollar economy, you don't get a chance to have do-overs, over and over again. I think what this incident actually indicates very clearly is Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party really don't know what they would do on the economy."
So I ask any reasonable person what is so mean about that? This is politics and he is criticizing him on policy. This is fair ball by any political standards of conduct. For Dom Martin to spin this any other way is just dishonest. It is clear to me that Mr. Martin is prepared to surrender his journalistic integrity in order support his political beliefs regardless of the facts. So be it. After all it is his credibility to do with what he likes. But video speaks louder than words so any objective viewer will not be fooled by this nonsense.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:46:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:46
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Unfortunately for your side - Canadians will view this as a classless and biased piece of journalism.
Hard to beat Harper's - go buy some cheap stock.
[updated Fri Oct 10 11:55:38 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 11:55
MichaelFox
Harper's comments on there being good buying opportunities were accurate.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:08:38 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:08
suedo
sure if your buffett
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:09:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:09
MichaelFox
Why you do have to be Warren Buffett?
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:14:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:14
suedo
Many Canadians and others not willing to lose more right now. Then there are the regular working families that do not have the cash.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:22:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:22
MichaelFox
There are regular working families that do not have the cash, but lots of people have cash.. the same people that have stock market investments.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:56:31 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:56
suedo
Good the economy is going to need them. I would say it is under their mattresses.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:59:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:59
MRM
MichaelFox - This is a good example of those on the far left who do not know how to run an economy and if they ever get a chance they will ruin ours. Encouraging those that have cash flow to continue to invest in the economy is good for everyone, not just those who have money but more importantly those who are living paycheck to paycheck and those on social assistance and EI. The PM should be applauded for encouraging investors to have some faith in our economy instead of Dion and Layton who are running around preaching doom and gloom and hoping that the econmy will get worse so that they use others pain for their own gain.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:19:28 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:19
HC in AB
Personally, I cashed out of equities in late May/early June, both in self directed RRSP's and a bit of portfolio that is not sheltered. It is now time to look to get back in before too much liquidity is back in the banking system. Both the banks and energy stocks have been driven down by the panic. Oil today is still at $90-$95 Canadian with the dollar going down. Most the the Canadian energy sector cost structure is in Canadian dollars so they will not be hurt much considering that the oil price in Canadian dollars is still more than a year ago. They don't see much of the price in the upper ranges anyway because of royalty structures. The trick will be to find the companies with access to captal and buy back in. Our banks are sound and are likely undervalued. The time to get back in will be a few weeks before earnings reports.
Mr. Harper was right, there is opportunity there for us working stiffs who are funding their own retirement. I do not see how indicating that the market is undervalued constitutes some kind of an attack on the average Canadian. Not everybody has cash to invest, but it should give some comfort to know that some of us see the medium/long term future of the country in a positive manner, as long as we are not taxed into oblivion.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:50:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:50
Lex Llewdor
Thought the stock market hasn't caused that, so they're the same as they were before. Status Quo. There's no reason for them to be upset.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:02:15 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:02
MRM
suedo - I agree, it was a classess and biased piece of journalism. As I just said in a post below encouraging those that have cash flow to continue to invest in the economy is good for everyone, not just those who have money but more importantly those who are living paycheck to paycheck and those on social assistance and EI. The PM should be applauded for encouraging investors to have some faith in our economy instead of Dion and Layton who are running around preaching doom and gloom and hoping that the economy will get worse so that they can use others pain for their own gain.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:22:58 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:22
Agreed help restore confidence.
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:38:58 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:38
Coryphaeus
Nevertheless, as Dion suggests, it is Stephen Harper who had days and days to answer the question and couldn't answer it.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:31:09 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:31
wyly
I have a hearing problem, I hear a really loud noise in one ear can you hear it?..it's the same affliction as my father had but mine is different than what he describe can anyone but me hear it? no so you have no way knowing what Dion is hears or doesn't hear either...
"When you're running a trillion-and-a-half-dollar economy, you don't get a chance to have do-overs, over and over again. I think what this incident actually indicates very clearly is Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party really don't know what they would do on the economy.".... so reversing the cultural funding isn't a do-over? or reversing the election date? or suddenly finding money for mortgages when only a few days ago it was we don't need a plan it's steady as she goes...and then being off by 10billion on the cost of the war is good accounting??? how much will he off running a trillion dollar economy
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:33:49 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:33
He blew the interview that's it. He did not stick to his scripted answer about this 30 day meetings of people.
He did not understand the question because he forgot his script and was trying to answer on the fly.
Is it a home run no. Should it be no.
Is he a leader no.
Vote on his policies vs CPC policies.
Goodluck
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:38:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:38
wyly
I used to dislike Don Martin opinion I thought of him as a biased conservative hack, after reading a few articles of his critical of the conservatives I feel I can trust his opinion to be fair and unbiased ....even though I may still not agree with him he has my respect...
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:56:42 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:56
Foxer
LIBERALS ADMIT GREEN SHIFT WON"T REDUCE EMISSIONS
http://www.winnipegsun.com/News/Manitoba/2008/10/10/7038881-sun.html
Well there you go. I think realistically most of us knew that all along. The green tax won't reduce greenhouse gasses.
Is this a surprise to anyone from a guy who let emissions go up 33 percent under kyoto?
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:20:29 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:20
7 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Foxer admits Harper breaks promises..that would be a real headline in this forum.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:43:36 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:43
Lex Llewdor
The income trust thing was a broken promise. I'll certainly concede that.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:03:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:03
Foxer
Yeap, and i've said so before. That was definitely a broken promise. They had their reasons and the libs agreed with it, but it was still a broken promise.
But - Harper didn't try to pretend it wasn't a broken promise. However - the fact that the Green Tax won't reduce GHG's is something a little more serious - it suggests this is just a tax grab and dion has been dishonest from day one.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:15:17 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:15
Lex Llewdor
And while Dion's promising income tax cuts to offset the carbon tax, that doesn't help the poorest Canadians. He's making the same mistake Paul Martin did in 2006: The poorest Canadians don't pay income tax. Harper pointed that out repeatedly during the 2006 debates.
Dion's carbon tax will harm the poorest Canadians.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:43:14 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:43
Foxer
Lets face it - his numbers don't add up for more wealthy folk either. Even middle class - as was reported today in the w sun, a little math shows he's grossly underestimating the cost to most families, especially in areas outside metro cores.
It doesn't account for things like rises in the price of food - which we saw here in bc almost immediately after our carbon tax was included. Everything you buy travels by truck, and trucks burn diesel. And that's going up 7 cents a litre. A lot of folks in the north drive diesel trucks - winters are harsh and they need that transportation, a 'smart car' won't get you to the store to buy food in the worst of the winters in bc.
It's a horrible plan with simply too many holes, and i think people are really looking at it again and wondering.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:50:05 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:50
No one who is honest would say Harper never broke a promise. When it comes right down to it, a reasonable person accepts promises are not unbreakable.
After all you keep supporting the Liberals and they break 10-15 promises every election.
Trusts he broke his promise. Was it necessary?
Liberals don't think so now but they supported it in the HOC. So AGAIN I don't understand how you can defend the party that raped NL and will do worse if the Carbon Tax is implemented. Did you not read the article by your Mayor in St. John's about the costs to the city? It was around $ 300,000 per year in year four, I think.
Want our banks rolled into Trusts?
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:32:59 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:32
Is the Liberal Green Shift plan a straight tax grab?
Yes 86%
No 14%
Total Votes for this Question: 1169
Poll Archive
http://www.winnipegsun.com/News/poll_results.html
[updated Fri Oct 10 14:00:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 14:00
Darryl
Today's Harris/Decima rolling poll shows that the CPC is on the way back up. Nik's numbers today will be very interesting...
Conservatives: 34% (+3)
Liberals: 26% (-1)
NDPL 18% (-1)
This poll says it's 33% Liberal to 31% Conservative to 21% NDP overall in Ontario now.
[updated Fri Oct 10 12:53:11 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 12:53
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Ekos has them up today as well - we'll see what nik's got to say.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:20:30 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:20
Darryl
Yeah Ekos`s latest actually says they predict a majority again now. So many polls - so many twists....
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/10/seat-projection-october-10-2008/
Conservative: 152
Liberal: 60
Bloc: 57
NDP: 39
Green: 0
A majority with only 5 seats in Quebec.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:28:47 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:28
Foxer
Well actually that's not a majority, that's just shy of a majority.
What we're seeing is extreme voter volatility. Ekos does have an unusually large sample size and a good track record. Nik has an excellent track record too. The problem is at the end of the day, both are trying to guess what millions of people will do based on interviews with about a thousand of them. (3 thousand or so with ekos).
If there is a lot of volatility, that can make it damn hard to predict.
We'll see if nick's numbers show a bump today for the cpc.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:34:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:34
Darryl
Yeah I see now it`s 4 short. But like you said it doesnt`matter much now anyway. I already voted so it`s out of my hands.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:36:04 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:36
Lex Llewdor
I generally make a mental adjustment of the Ekos numbers to correct for their over-representation of the Green vote. I think Nik's right about the Green vote - they'll poll under 8% - so we need to fudge the Ekos numbers a bit.
But otherwise, you're right. Ekos's larger sample size gives them considerable credibility.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:41:33 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:41
Foxer
I don't know what to think about the green vote. It can utterly dry up, or it could remain strong if people don't really like any of their other choices.
Nik says his method is more accurate because it doesn't 'remind' people about the greens - but the greens will be on the ballot so people will be reminded of them.
I'd discount the ekos 'green' vote slightly, but even giving a few points from the greens to the libs, it's still a strong minority for the CPC based on the ekos numbers. And the cpc is still trending upwards.
Which still brings us back to the roughly 144 seats i said the cpc would get when this started. IF the ekos numbers are accurate.
We'll see if nik shows any upward trends.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:46:11 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:46
I'm still going to win that contest $ 1000.
Too close to call the battleground ridings and the bodies needed to bring out the vote.
Strategic voting myth again. If NDP hold their base Liberals are in for a very big suprise.
The Conservative need to do a good job in holding their base and to benefit NDP.
Has anyone seen May declare where she wants her votes to go? They should go to NDP. Liberals 2nd vote go NDP before greens. Greens go NDP as 2nd choice.
CPC needs to hold their seats in Quebec. They need every region to reflect a national party.
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:57:40 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:57
Lex Llewdor
The Greens will poll closer to the 4.5% they got last time than the 11-12% EKOS and Decima are reporting.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:16:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:16
Foxer
It's possible. Tho i'm not sure that those current 'green' supporters who don't vote green will necessarily vote at all. The green vote has done some weird things in the past, sometimes staying strong and other times completely evaporating.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:30:50 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:30
Dion criticizes Harper, CTV over interview
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wliberals1010/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
Again game changer NO!
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:19:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:19
11 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Foxer
Yeah - but he never looks good when he's whining.
[updated Fri Oct 10 13:34:53 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 13:34
After reading his National Post article below it explains that too.
Poll: Tories once again within reach of winning a majority
The Ekos projection is that the Conservatives would take 152 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, three short of a majority.
The Liberals would be reduced to 60 seats, barely above the 57 the separatist Bloc Quebecois would take, while the New Democratic Party would take 39 seats.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/10/10/poll-tories-once-again-within-reach-of-winning-a-majority.aspx
[updated Fri Oct 10 15:45:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 15:45
larryl
Informed. Have you entered your predictions in Nanos contest . I am more interested in your predictions than the Ekos poll . I would like all our regulars to make their prognostications available after the election and see who has this figured out if anyone .If we want to read the paper we would not be here would we?
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:00:08 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:00
I have already sent them in. I have libs only small deviations from 2006. I am not convinced in massive swings in votes to anyone. Seat projection is the most comical or unscientific. Too many variables.
Popular vote
CPC 37 - 39 (small increase)
Libs 29 - 27 ( small drop)
NDP 18 - 20 (small increase)
Bloc 10 - 11 (small increase)
Green 3 - 5
Something like that. Advance Polls are down from last year. With a smaller turnout cause all the negative stuff. I am not sure about the game changer fluff only hard-core nuts like us follow this crap.
Good luck don't eat to much.
[updated Fri Oct 10 16:22:44 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 16:22
Foxer
I missed the whole contest thing - were do you see that?
[updated Fri Oct 10 17:26:12 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 17:26
larryl
When you signed up to this site there was an option to register to be picked as polster . I believe you can still enter the contest. You have to predict the percentage of votes each party will receive to one decimal point. The possibilities are really high . Hope you can get in .
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:47:39 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:47
Foxer
Apparently not - it says 'registration closed'. I'll poke around and see if it'll let me somehow.
[updated Fri Oct 10 18:52:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 18:52
larryl
You can participate in our version of the contest but won't be able to win Nanos' prize. I would like every one to post their predictions before the polls close on Tuesday and we will be able to compare each others predictions. I will try to post mine Tuesday at about 8 pm local time. You have to predict the percentage each party will get to within a decimal place. E.G. CPC 40.5
Lib. 28. 4 NDP. 27.6. The total for all parties must total 100%. I forgot to predict anything for independent candidates and there is at least one in N.S. that could win his seat but they will probably not have enough votes to make up 1 % of the total votes cast.
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:24:11 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:24
Foxer
Is it percentage of seats or of popular vote?
[updated Fri Oct 10 19:56:58 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 19:56
larryl
Popular vote since that allows for a wider range of predictions.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:17:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:17
larryl
Popular vote since that allows for a wider range of predictions.
[updated Fri Oct 10 20:17:21 -0400 2008]
10 Oct 20:17