CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 8)

The polls are very similar to yesterday, which probably means the Conservative slide has stopped.

In order for the Liberals to win they will need to take votes away from the other parties now, as they've probably gotten all they can from the Conservatives.

With very little time left in the election campaign it looks like a slim Tory minority.

[updated Thu Oct 09 14:01:16 EDT 2008]

A call for civility...

Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we're all just political hacks here (which we are).

You're not going to change anyone's vote through something you write on this message board.

Again, even if we can only manage it for one day, why don't we try to have an intelligent debate on a few issues without degrading into the usual name calling and comments such as "Dion sucks", "Harper sucks, Neocon, Bush" etc.

[updated Thu Oct 09 14:07:34 EDT 2008]

My concern is that soft Dippers and Greens will flock to the Liberals over the weekend and give Dion a narrow plurality.

[updated Thu Oct 09 14:25:44 EDT 2008]

This political balkanization of the country has been evidence for a long time. It will not just add to western alienation but will contribute to the move for western separation. Dion and his discriminatory carbon tax is not good for the energy rich west.

Quebec wants to stand alone as a separate nation; Ontario could do the same and we would all have economic and political independence. Each country could have the government they want instead of being controlled by Central Canada (Ontario)

[updated Thu Oct 09 14:33:35 EDT 2008]

As a Tory my analysis might be a little bias towards one side, but love to hear all your thoughts...

One time:
Angus Reid- Tories 35%, Libs 27% (Oct. 6th, 7th) 1,000 ppl.

Daily:
Ekos- Tories 35 (+1), Libs 24 (-1) (Monday Oct.6th, 7th, 8th) 3,100 ppl. total
Nanos- Tories 33 (NC), Libs 29 (NC) (Monday Oct. 6th, 7th, 8th ) 1,200 ppl. total
Harris Decima: Tories 32 (+1), Libs 27 (NC) (Sunday Oct. 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th) 1,200 ppl. total

Summary:
The trends from yesterday’s analysis seem to be continuing. It appears that Nanos is slow on picking up the decreasing trends of the Liberals, and the increasing trend of the Tories. I think this is due particularly to the high #’s Nanos is giving the Liberals in Ontario, which is different than all of the other Federal polls. Nanos also shows much volatility in Atlantic Canada (Of note though, MOE is 10%), and this combined with the Ont. Libs seems to be keeping the Libs at 29%. Any drop of in their #’s in Ont. and the Atlantic in the Nanos poll and the libs will fall from 29%.

At the same time, all polls show a falling in support of the Liberals in Quebec, however Harris Decima has the libs polling at 29%, while Nanos has them at 19% and Ekos has them at 21%. This should provide encouragement for falling Lib national poll #’s, as 29% seems out of whack with other polls, and is probably over polling Montreal.

Here are the spreads by the polls:
Ekos: Tories ahead by 11
AR: Tories ahead by 8
Harris Decima: Tories ahead by 5
Nanos: Tories ahead by 4

In Ontario:
Ekos: Tories 36 (+1), Libs 32 (+1)
Nanos: Tories 28 (NC), Libs 39 (-1)
Harris Decima: Tories 28 (+2), Libs 32 (-2)

[updated Thu Oct 09 14:47:39 EDT 2008]

I am not seeing a lot of talk about an NDP-Liberal coaltion government. If the Conservatives don't get enough for a majority, there is technically nothing stopping the NDP and Liberals from forming a coalition government, with the Bloc simply holding the trigger. Note that I said "technically"... I am sure that there are plenty of personality and ideological barriers.

[updated Thu Oct 09 15:10:02 EDT 2008]

I see right-conservative policies are working tremendously well. Is there anything working?
Can anybody find the DOW - its dark that fell down the well.

What we should do is copy the Americans and we too will be in their enviable position.

Just curious - how are those jobs coming in manufacturing? Moving their operations to China has been tremendously successful for Americans. Maybe we should try that too.

They are far ahead of us in the military workplace - any chance we can find our own war - to get in on the action.

Then again still much more profitable to be one of Stephen's real heroes - the hockey player. Shoot puck in net = $10,000,000 Get shot defending freedom = $60,000

[updated Thu Oct 09 16:37:01 EDT 2008]

how does 50% of westerners voting conservative add to western discontent and alienation? what about the other 50% who don't support the conservatives are our opinions not worth anything?

[updated Thu Oct 09 18:04:52 EDT 2008]

Just filled out my entry for Nanos contest on election prediction . Any guesses on how well our resident experts will do ?If one of us should happen to win the contest apologies from all posters of the opposite political stripe should be posted with congratulations attached. We could have our own contest but it would be on an honorary basis unless we could send our predictions to another poster to be revealed after the election. I will post my predictions on election night around 8 P.M. as I will be at the election office counting ballots after the polls close. This could be fun.

[updated Thu Oct 09 18:05:46 EDT 2008]

Nik;

If you could do anything different in your methodology to improve the reliability your numbers, what would you do?

During this election, some of the regions (I'm thinking specifically of the Atlantic region), were chaotic from day to day. It was like a roller coaster ride. Does that truly reflect the mood of the voters or was it the survey instrument or size of the sample that affected the daily numbers most.

Thanks
Deb

[updated Thu Oct 09 19:04:07 EDT 2008]

Nik - Question CPAC

Much has been made of Stephane Dion and his "weak" leadership. This to the point of suggesting after this election is over - he will be turfed as the leader. My question is - If Stephen Harper does not get a majority is this the end of his political career?

[updated Thu Oct 09 19:15:14 EDT 2008]

Nik,

Do you have any seat projections based on the current numbers?

Thanks,
Gary B.
Victoria BC

[updated Thu Oct 09 19:31:46 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik:

If Harper is considered in each of your polls to be the best PM by a wide margin then why would we see a tightening in the polls. Does it not go, thinking logically, that if Harper is considered the best PM the voters would support his re-election?

[updated Thu Oct 09 19:38:04 EDT 2008]

Q. What was Alexander Graham Bellanovski famous for?
A. He invented the telephone poll.

[updated Thu Oct 09 19:48:45 EDT 2008]

Nik:

There is no question that the Conservatives have had gaffes during this election campaign and Harper himself has made some unhelpful comments. However, why in the world would the Canadian electorate support a Liberal party who has a leader Canadians, in every poll, say they don't much like and who has a policy of proposing huge new taxes and is proposing to spend up to $50 billion on new program spending (which amounts to wealth re-distribution)? Does the old saying go Tax me I'm stupid apply to this campaign?

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:00:32 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik,

Where does Nanos' funding come from? What do you do during the non-campaign periods?

Have a great Thanksgiving.

Craig

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:11:24 EDT 2008]

Nik: Given Mr. Harper's training and experience as an economist, will today's Afghanistan report and the difference between his cost estimate and Mr. Page's cause a problem for the Prime Minister?

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:21 EDT 2008]

Is this a dream!

Mr. Layton as made it very clear to everyone that the only position he wants is to be PM of Canada...so on the 15th October will he then resign as leader of the NDP party as he had made it crystal clear he only wants to be PM and not just a mere leader of a 3rd place party.

On the 15th October, when Mr Harper wakes up to find that he has not achieved the 155 seats needed...what will he do, as he has clearly stated on the record that he cannot work with the other parties ineffectively carrying out Canada’s legislative business.

Answer: Mr. Harper then should visit the Governor General advising her that he will not be able to form a majority government and that he is resigning to allow the Governor General to ask the leader of the official opposition to form the next Government.

Yes, this is a dream...

What's not a dream is spending another 300 Million!!

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:20:40 EDT 2008]

Dear Nik,

I am comparing the 2006 vs 2008 in the last week. Both had Harper trending negatively.

Do your numbers suggest a strategic vote with a different outcome?

Thank you

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:24:15 EDT 2008]

I've now seen the Regional Break Downs, I think that the Liberals will win this election if we keep up the push to stop Stephen Harper. The numbers if accurate have the Liberals ahead in every region of the Country, or statistically tied as in BC.

When you look at the Quebec Numbers, the seats on the Island of Montreal will belong to either the Liberals of the Bloc. When you look at the rest of Quebec, the Conservatives may be shut out.

Atlantic Canada has a larger sample now and we see that the blip from the other day is corrected and that the Liberals out front with the NDP in second place. The Tories are running third.

So what explains the Conservative 33 and Liberal 29 number. It's Alberta; 66% there support the Conservatives, a 9 point bump. But Harper doesn't need any seats there, they are all his. He is up in Sask and Manitoba, same story there, no pick ups.

Ontario in Toronto the Tories are tanking, they are behind in South Western Ontario and only tied in Eastern and Northern Ontario. Eastern Ontario is Conservative Country, I know of what I speak. The North leans NDP, this is good news with such a strong Liberal Number in that area, it means that the Liberals will likely pick up Eastern Ontario Seats. These seats used to belong to the Liberals anyway, it's not a stretch to have them come back home.

I take back my earlier predictions, I think that Harper is on the ropes, we just need to keep all of our energy towards defeating him between now and Tuesday.

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:26:14 EDT 2008]

One of the most important interviews of this campaign happened today.

Steve Murphy of ATV news was interviewing Stephane Dion and asking about what he would have done different during the last few weeks related to the stock market meltdown if he were Prime Minister instead of Mr. Harper. Dion's answers are interesting...

Here is a video of the interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrliDQs1Jps

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:35:57 EDT 2008]

hey nik, two questions:
(1) ever thought about running for political office..and
(2) did you do polling in central nova...how is elisabeth may doing ?

[updated Thu Oct 09 20:42:15 EDT 2008]

I think perhaps the dip in polls for the Conservative party is partly due to the fear brought on by the world economic situation. People don't know who to blame,...and when given the direction by the opposition,..they obviously direct their fustration towards Harper. Now that the Press released the information that Canadian Banks are in the best position (out of ALL the World Economies!!),...I predict the CP will gain in the polls. Harper explained what steps were taken to prepare for this approx. 14months ago,,,,and with the additional statements by Flaherty,...the situation is being explained. THis may help put concerned Canadian at a situation of ease.

[updated Thu Oct 09 21:21:56 EDT 2008]

It appears that both the cons and Libs are tied in the polls. If it remains that way who will get the most seats?

[updated Thu Oct 09 22:18:10 EDT 2008]

Check out Mr. Dion's interview today on you tube "Stephan Dion as seen on Mike Duffy Live".

[updated Thu Oct 09 22:36:24 EDT 2008]

Harper and Flaherty have just announced another flip flop and will support some products banks have with high risk mortgages. What a sad sack act those two are.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.wbankpolitics10/BNStory/Business

[updated Thu Oct 09 23:49:05 EDT 2008]

With the economy in the forefront and the Dion interview gaffe another event went unnoticed in the media today. For the second time in a row the usually left leaning G&M editorial board came out with a strong endorsement for Harper today. An extract form the article posted on their website:

"On balance, Mr. Harper remains the best man for the job in the tough times now upon us. "

[updated Fri Oct 10 05:25:57 EDT 2008]

1. it appears that the Cons will only win two seats in Quebec..those of the wonderful Mr. Bernier and Mme Vverner the architect of Harper's culture policy.

2. The numbers in Ontario could end with fewer than 30 tories elected there if ther current trend continues.

3. The NDP may still get shut out in Quebec as the Liberals are resurgent there and both the Libs and Bloc are fighting to split Mulcair's vote and defeat him. .

4. The Libs may hold onto all or most of their western seats.

5. The NDP are losing at least two GTA seats to the Libs and may not make the same totals as last time.

6. The Greens unfortunately will again not elect anyone.

[updated Fri Oct 10 07:12:35 EDT 2008]

The Bench is holding the bat to Dion's head, leadership contenders positioning for next convention.

"Worse yet for the Liberals, Dion had to contend with recently-published comments from star candidates - and leadership rivals - Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff which suggested a deep global recession would force a Liberal government to rethink the carbon tax."...

"But after a promising week which saw his Liberals' close a once-commanding Conservative lead, Dion was forced to shift to the defensive on Thursday at a campaign stop in Nova Scotia, where Premier Rodney MacDonald warned voters that a carbon tax would cost the province around $600 million per year."....

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_dion_shift_081008/20081009?s_name=election2008

[updated Fri Oct 10 07:29:55 EDT 2008]

Liberals edge ahead in B.C. battlegrounds: poll
CTV.ca News

For the first time in the 2008 election, the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia's battleground ridings.

That's in stark contrast from the start the campaign period when the Conservatives were polling at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals' 25 per cent.

In polling conducted Oct. 6-8, the Liberals had 33 per cent support to the Conservatives 31 per cent, in B.C.'s key swing ridings.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081006/election2008_poll_story_081009?s_name=election2008&no_ads=

Goodluck.

[updated Fri Oct 10 07:59:01 EDT 2008]

There used to be a "robini" here. I wonder if he/she is related to Nouriel Roubini the famous economists and write on financial affairs. Here's a sample of what he is saying today.
"ALERT

RGE Monitor

October 9, 2008

On Thursday, October 09, 2008, Nouriel Roubini – Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics at the NYU Stern School of Business – lays out his latest views on the global economic and financial crisis and the urgent necessary actions that need to be undertaken globally.

"The U.S. and advanced economies’ financial systems are now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid, and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms."

I may not agree, but the warning is there.

Harper's not telling things as they are is irresponsible. If people know the truth they can take measures to protect themselves from the worst effects.
If they don't know and don't prepare then the situation is made much worse.

[updated Fri Oct 10 08:21:19 EDT 2008]

September employment jump largest in 30+ years
Updated Fri. Oct. 10 2008 7:58 AM ET

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA -- Statistics Canada has surprised economists and tossed a wild card into the federal election campaign, reporting that the Canadian economy generated a record 107,000 new jobs in September.

The massive number was totally unexpected, as analysts were expecting a modest pick-up in the 12,500 range.

However, almost all of the new jobs -- 97,000 -- were part-time.

Last month's overall jump was the largest since the agency began collecting the data more than 30 years ago. The previous record month was January 2002, when 97,000 jobs were added.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081010/employment_figures_081010/20081010?hub=Canada

The Opposition will cry because "High paying Union Jobs" are lost due to the CPC.

Who is the customer of the services of these high union paying jobs? Automobiles....hmmmmm

Our largest trading partner. God Bless America and whoever they elect. It's not the Canadian way to ridicule their democracy. (Unless you belong in the Liberal,NDP. Bloc, Green)

Harper should go fix the banking, employment and housing problems in the US as well to save those jobs in Canada.

BTW thank you again for all the anti-american sentiment and trashing of our brothers in the south during the campaign.

I know the Republican Party and the millions of voters who regularly vote that ticket are evil according to your campaign.

[updated Fri Oct 10 08:30:06 EDT 2008]

Issues seem to be taking a back seat to campaign strategy in this election. It occurred to me yesterday while I was in the dentist's chair that the upheaval in financial markets and huge spillage of government money worldwide is going to create so much economic "noise" that many international trade agreements will fall by the wayside as governments, especially the USA, subsidize domestic businesses in many industries. This is bound to hurt competitiveness in trade across borders and could cause the collapse of NAFTA, the Auto Pact, and other agreements.

[updated Fri Oct 10 08:46:31 EDT 2008]

The supposed gaffe yesterday is a farce. An unclear question asking what could have been about this financial crisis before it actually happened is ridiculous. Who knew this was coming ? Obviously no one did or they would have done something to prevent it. The question was a trap to make Dion look bad since there is no answer to the question.

CTV’s ethics as low as those of Mr. Harper
CTV has injected itself to the campaign in Mr. Harper's favour. Mike Duffy's gleeful airing of cut footage of the Dion interview with Steve Murphy is about as low as it gets.
Mr. Dion and CTV both agreed to restart the interview because the question was unclear. What would you do as PM now? What would you have done? Which is it?

The Tories have been making personal attacks against Mr. Dion for two years and they can be expected to continue to the bitter end. CTV? Mssrs. Murphy and Duffy? They broke their word, which makes them willing and shameless accomplices in character assassination.

A new classic for media ethics courses. Speaking of which, Msrrs. Duffy and Murphy and their CTV masters need to go back to school.

[updated Fri Oct 10 08:56:51 EDT 2008]

Harper is growing into the job
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081009.weelection2008/BNStory/politics?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp

".... Mr. Harper has governed moderately and competently for nearly three years. He has not taken the country in dangerous new directions or significantly eroded the capacity of the government to act, when necessary, in the public interest. He has been side-swiped, at least on the emotional level, by an international economic crisis of epic proportions. But he has gotten the big things right."

"...Mr. Dion is a decent man of great integrity and tremendous courage, most evident in his years as minister of intergovernmental affairs under Jean Chrétien. But a leader he is not.

If you want to meet the most inflexible head of a major political party, Mr. Dion takes it in a cakewalk. He's had a relatively strong week to be sure, but has never been much inclined to make the kind of mid-course corrections required in uncharted waters. He is a priest not a proselytizer, better at righteousness than salesmanship. The Green Shift has been an electoral disaster not because a carbon tax/income tax swap is a bad idea, but because his proposal is ill-timed, ill-considered (why mix an anti-poverty initiative into a tax on greenhouse gas emissions?) and ill-presented. You cannot be a leader without creating followers and Mr. Dion has failed to attract followers to his signature policy."

[updated Fri Oct 10 09:22:00 EDT 2008]

Please be civil, all Canadians are being affected.

Ottawa buying $25-billion in mortgage pools
SHAWN MCCARTHY
Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 8:30 AM EDT

"This initiative by no means signals problems in Canadian mortgage quality or mortgage market fundamentals," they said. "The policy initiative is strictly designed to address liquidity and funding pressures at Canadian banks that is a by-product of an evolving global credit crisis."

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wflaherty1010/BNStory/Business/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp

[updated Fri Oct 10 09:38:03 EDT 2008]

It appears that Canadians may have the choice of having Dion without the carbon tax.
If Dion gets a minority - parliament has a say in structuring climate change strategies. This also avoids the harpernomics - he now believes he was the Prime Minister that created a more stable banking system.

[updated Fri Oct 10 11:41:39 EDT 2008]

Has anyone read the Don Martin article on the NP site? This article proves what many have suspected all along. That Don Martin is a Liberal party hack! This is such an obvious and weak attempt to spin this into something that it is not that his version of events are laughable. They border on the absurd and are devoid of any reality. Here is why I say this:

1. CTV had every right to air this. If Harper or any other leader had been in a similar situation and the network hid it from the public guys like Martin would be screaming from the rafters that they were being biased. And guys like Martin would be penning articles about why they candidate in question was unfit to be P.M.

2. Anyone who watches the clip knows that it was not an overly difficult question. It was also explained to him in French. I need say no more on that because the clip speaks for itself. To say any different is just not credible.

3. Dion’s medical condition has zip to do with this. I know because I have the same affliction. If you go back to the statements Dion made when he told the public about his affliction you will hear him say that he has difficulty hearing people speak in crowds. The affliction makes it difficult to discriminate between background noise and the person who is addressing you. This was not the case here. It was a one on one interview in a hotel room.

3. How is the PM’s response “showing his mean streak”? Again anyone listening to his comments knows that his response was actually a bit muted. He said:

"When you're running a trillion-and-a-half-dollar economy, you don't get a chance to have do-overs, over and over again. I think what this incident actually indicates very clearly is Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party really don't know what they would do on the economy."
So I ask any reasonable person what is so mean about that? This is politics and he is criticizing him on policy. This is fair ball by any political standards of conduct. For Dom Martin to spin this any other way is just dishonest. It is clear to me that Mr. Martin is prepared to surrender his journalistic integrity in order support his political beliefs regardless of the facts. So be it. After all it is his credibility to do with what he likes. But video speaks louder than words so any objective viewer will not be fooled by this nonsense.

[updated Fri Oct 10 11:46:21 EDT 2008]

LIBERALS ADMIT GREEN SHIFT WON"T REDUCE EMISSIONS

http://www.winnipegsun.com/News/Manitoba/2008/10/10/7038881-sun.html

Well there you go. I think realistically most of us knew that all along. The green tax won't reduce greenhouse gasses.

Is this a surprise to anyone from a guy who let emissions go up 33 percent under kyoto?

[updated Fri Oct 10 12:20:29 EDT 2008]

Today's Harris/Decima rolling poll shows that the CPC is on the way back up. Nik's numbers today will be very interesting...

Conservatives: 34% (+3)
Liberals: 26% (-1)
NDPL 18% (-1)

This poll says it's 33% Liberal to 31% Conservative to 21% NDP overall in Ontario now.

[updated Fri Oct 10 12:53:11 EDT 2008]

Dion criticizes Harper, CTV over interview

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.wliberals1010/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

Again game changer NO!

[updated Fri Oct 10 13:19:53 EDT 2008]