The Conservatives continue to hold onto a tenuous lead of four points over the Liberals according to the CPAC-Nanos poll completed last night. The downward trend in support for the Conservatives continues in the key battleground of Ontario where what was a neck-and-neck race last week has turned into a 12 point lead for the Liberals (LP 40, CP 28 in Ontario). Over the past seven days marginal declines for the Conservatives in Ontario have largely been offset by marginal gains in the West, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. However, a loss of support in the province of Ontario (now noticeably below their 2006 support of 35%), and BQ gains in Quebec represents a structural obstacle to Conservative seat gains.
Harper still maintains a comfortable comparative advantage on the best Prime Minister front (Harper 33, Layton 20, Dion 17).
As you know, Nanos is the only pollster to track second choice on a daily basis. We use those statistics to hedge our analysis and to help us anticipate the impact of campaign activities. We’ve posted that stat sheet on our website. The research shows, not surprisingly, that Liberals are most likely to pick up from the NDP and Greens, the NDP are the most likely to pick up from the BQ. Conservatives are the most likely to say they have no second choice and their only significant pool of voters to access are the Liberals. This analysis points to a level of fluidity between the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 6, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,016, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 33 (-1)
- Liberal Party 29 (-2)
- NDP 20 (+2)
- BQ 11% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (+1)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (-1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 17% (-1)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- None of them 7% (NC)
- Unsure 14% (NC)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 89 (-6)
- Jack Layton 56 (+9)
- Stephane Dion 50 (-1)
- Elizabeth May 21 (NC)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (+3)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard