The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario - potentially an “echo effect” from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday night’s English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something.
Harper still maintains a comparative advantage on the leadership front. Also, there was an uptick in Tory support in Quebec to 20% but the BQ have now reached 46% support in Quebec - four points higher than their support in 2006. Today’s Conservative platform will focus attention on the Conservatives and is now a critical factor in the election outcome.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 5, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,020, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (NC)
- Liberal Party 31 (+2)
- NDP 18 (-2)
- BQ 11% (NC)
- Green Party 6% (NC)
- Undecided 15% (NC)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,201,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 34% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 20% (-1)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 4% (+1)
- None of them 7% (NC)
- Unsure 14% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 95 (+9)
- Stephane Dion 51 (-7)
- Jack Layton 47 (-8)
- Elizabeth May 21 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 13 (+1)
What do you think?
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard