With a five point margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals, the results are currently reminiscent of the 2006 federal election. Support for the BQ continues to ramp up, likely a result of the continued focus on culture and crime. Ontario remains a close race with only four points separating the Liberals and the Conservatives. NDP support in Ontario is also trending upward. Tomorrow’s release of the Conservative platform will be a key event shaping the close of the campaign. With a late platform release and a tightening of the race, there is no room for error for the Conservatives with only about seven days left in the campaign.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 4, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (NC)
- Liberal Party 29 (-1)
- NDP 20 (+1)
- BQ 11% (+1)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
- Undecided 15% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (-2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 86 (-12)
- Stephane Dion 58 (-1)
- Jack Layton 55 (-5)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-4)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Still looking good for the liberals.......Tories continue to slide. ... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 06 Oct 14:10
This is the definitive data point. This tells us the Liberal gains on Friday ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 06 Oct 14:19
Well I'm quite surprised the numbers are getting this close but I wonder how muc... more
Darryl (Ontario) 06 Oct 14:20
I know you're not referring to my comment, since there was absolutely nothing ra... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 06 Oct 17:47
How could that possibly have been racist? There was no reference to race anywhe... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 06 Oct 18:08
no it wasn't your comment that bordered on racist michael fox... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 06 Oct 21:33
Comments
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Still looking good for the liberals.......Tories continue to slide.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:10:43 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:10
37 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
It's a horse race!
It's interesting that the Leadership Index Score of all of the top 3 candidates has been dropping as many voters moved to the undecided category on that measure. (Undecideds are included on the Leadership Index)
The Conservatives will have to work hard this week and be on their game to make gains over the last election.
The NDPs hopes of forming the official opposition are fading, as expected. I think they'll finish 4th.
Liberal supporters will probably be happy that they are holding at this level. A decade ago, who would have thought the Liberals would be happy to be 5 points back. :)
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:14:53 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:14
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
This is the definitive data point.
This tells us the Liberal gains on Friday were real, but they haven't progressed at all since then. That's useful information.
The other pollsters are missing this, but they're also inflating Green support quite badly - that's the apparent cause for the discrepancy.
This was happening early in the campagin, as well, but the discrepancy had narrowed somewhat. Now it's back.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:19:58 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:19
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Well I'm quite surprised the numbers are getting this close but I wonder how much change this will really mean to seat numbers. A lot of those changed voters could be in ridings that were not going to the CPC's way anyway?
The stock market tumbles are certainly coming into play even though I don't hear any stories about Canadian financial institutions on the verge of going under.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:20:43 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:20
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike Stokes
I can't believe Nanos shows the greens at 6 % I really do find that one hard to believe...I think the ranking question used by Nanos favors the Libs over the Greens
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:21:52 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:21
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The NDP ride should be over by Wednesday when the soft and parked voters start to show their preferences. They will drop back to around 17% and the libs will be the beneficieries.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:53:12 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:53
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
Hi Nik, On Saturday I made this fearless prognostication:
I'll try my hand at prognostication and predict that by Monday (Sunday nights numbers counted) when all of the fallout from the debates have percolated through the roll, that we will see the Conservatives around 33%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP around 21%. The greens will get a bump to 11 or 12 and the rest go to Mr. Duceppe.
My Numbers on The Conservatives and NDP are pretty close but I didn't foresee the migration of Green votes to the Liberals.
At any rate, the trends have re-established themselves, and I am now expecting a considerably weaker Conservative minority Gov't, especially with the resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec, the Dippers in Ontario and British Columbia.
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:23:07 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:23
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
newgeneration voter
Polls show that Canadians are looking for a leader they can trust or identify with and it seems that Stephane Dion has touched a nerve somewhere in most Canadians daily life's- he seems like the guy next door who is just being himself open and straight forward with no frills attached to his views or what plans he has in place for Canada a true leader with a touch of humility and humbleness an open face ... he spells comfort and easy to identify with and Canadians need to feel safe and loved in this times of economic melt down.. the markets are still dropping and instead of the other leaders i.e Harper and Layton speaking out on the worries that Canadians are facing they still put it out their through rosy glasses while Dion come out and said Canadians should be prepared for hard times. and that is what leadership is all about not hiding the truth but dealing with it head on..
my point being a strong and true leader should always prepare his or her peoples to face a storm no matter how bad it looks....
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:36:12 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:36
54 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Do you write the campaign brochures for the liberal party of Canada?
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:44:08 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:44
Disney Promotions I suspect. He thinks they will win.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:01:19 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:01
MichaelFox
Notice that Liberals supporters always have horrible spelling and grammar?
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:01:17 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:01
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
waht dud your say? what a stupid and almost racist comment.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:55:06 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:55
MichaelFox
I know you're not referring to my comment, since there was absolutely nothing racial about it.
[updated Mon Oct 06 17:47:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 17:47
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
no it wasn't your comment that bordered on racist michael fox
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:33:57 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:33
Lex Llewdor
How could that possibly have been racist? There was no reference to race anywhere in there.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:08:13 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:08
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
maybe I should have used bigot as the operative word. That would be politically correct.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:05:58 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:05
MichaelFox
You have a bad attitude.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:16:09 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:16
HoldenCaulfield
Michael there is no end to your observations and the wisdom that you share with us. It is funny, your party tries to portray Liberals as elitists who attend wine and cheese book readings and art galas, but now you accuse of being illiterate.
Just as note Michael, you would not want to engage in a battle of the CV's between Liberals and Conservatives, I suggest that poll would not even be close my neo con friend.
[updated Mon Oct 06 19:54:28 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 19:54
Prairie Born
Why hasn't anyone mentioned why the Liberals were voted out of office in the first place. Doesn't the fact that they stole 10's of millions of dollars of our money have anything to do with how Canadians view that party. Or is it forgive and forget. And then you have the Conservatives who have frittered away the largest surplus of funds we have ever had, and made their big business friends rich in the process, asking for a majority. Are the people posting here so young that they don't get it???
Both the Liberals and Conservatives have made promises that they never kept, so their platforms are useless. The NDP have never been given a chance , but even they would most likely fall short of promises. So then what does it boil down to? Who deserves your vote??? Who bests represents your interest. If you are wealthy you should be voting Conservative or Liberal, as their policies will lengthen the gap between you and the working class. You will be taxed less and profit more and not have to contribute as much to social programs like Childcare, Pharmacare, Old Age Pension, & Medicare. The environment will not matter... that's for future generations to figure out. So what if there is child poverty out there. Your family is doing OK. Let the others find ways to feed themselves. When the price of a loaf of bread and a quart of milk goes up, who cares about the pensioner on a fixed income, who worries about where the next meal will come from, never mind how to pay for property taxes that have doubled on his or her home. As long as the gap is widening and you get richer, keep those votes for the Conservatives and Liberals coming in. Live for today!!!
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:33:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:33
westerner
A very small percentage of Canadians want a hard left socialist government. The left leaning Liberals are scary enough with their carbon tax on everything. We don't need Jack (Chavez) Layton.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:48:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:48
HoldenCaulfield
Westerner, I'm not supporting the NDP this time, but only you could find Layton and his NDP "Hard Left" give me strength. No one in that party even calls themselves socialists anymore and they quit referring to each other as brother and sister back in the 1980's.
Tony Blair's Labour Government has run Britain for quite a while and there is not Soviet Style Government there that I am aware of.
You sound like a redneck reactionary from the Southern USA when you say things like that.
[updated Mon Oct 06 19:58:15 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 19:58
westerner
Jack Layton is a socialist substantially left of Tony Blair. He is strongly supported by big labour. When with big labour they still call each other brothers and sisters.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:03:52 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:03
HoldenCaulfield
Why are you afraid of unions, they are just Democracy at work!
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:51:28 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:51
westerner
Don't change the channel. The NDP Party is a socialist party whether you like the label or not! By the way, what is "new" about the New Democrats?
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:57:20 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:57
HoldenCaulfield
You mean like what is New about the New Conservatives who are really just Reform Party rejects and casts off from the failed Common Sense Revolution.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:04:58 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:04
westerner
Conservatives don't label their Party as New. The NDP do and it is misleading.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:10:51 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:10
westerner
Democratic? Is that why they oppose secret ballot votes?
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:37:12 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:37
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
And a very small % of Canadians want a hard right government which is why Harper is so despised and why the left has almost 70% of the votes in this country.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:07:32 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:07
westerner
Good to see you finally agree the Liberals are on the left! Dion insists the Liberal Party is "centrist". You obviously disagree with him.
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:29:44 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:29
If you want to blame the Federal gov't for provincial problems okey dokey.
Blame your province and city for your property tax.
You want to solve world hunger go ahead. But don't expect hard working families to keep sending their money for those who don't help themselves.
Get out and vote for your party and their platform. Accept the results.
Any party can promise the moon but once in power every party must face the reality.
Bob Rae NDP in Ontario did and he did not solve those problems. His "union" and "socialist" brothers brought Harris in when he could not give them what they wanted.
So don't expect anytime soon a political party to solve a problem that will exist 4ever.
Inequality will always exist.
[updated Mon Oct 06 17:12:45 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 17:12
larryl
Prairie Born. You must have been born many years ago. You sound like you might have been in the old CCF or at least a Tommy Douglas fan. Unfortunately the NDP lost that when they changed their name. Caring about our fellow citizens has become far too rare. We are part of the " Me" generation but this recession might teach us that we can and should help each other.
[updated Mon Oct 06 22:17:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 22:17
elf
Pairie Born - oh stop it - you are just parrotting what you have heard from the CONservative ads. You and many others are being CONned by the biggest CON artist ever - the CONservative PM !!
we've all heard this rhetoric and if you seriously still believe it you need to check your source of information - it seems to be the tory ads !!
[updated Tue Oct 07 11:48:42 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 11:48
westerner
Dion has no experience at all managing anything. He botched the Kyoto file and his claim to fame is teaching political science. He would be scary managing a $200 billion federal budget and several trillion dollar Canadian economy.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:51:36 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:51
Lex Llewdor
The only advantage of Dion's Green Shift would be the increased support for separatism in the west.
That's something I'd vote for.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:09:13 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:09
westerner
Agreed. The Green Shaft Plan, if implemented, would be a strong incentive for a western separation movement or a separation movement in Sask and/or Alberta.
The shift of wealth from the west to east must be stopped.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:52:53 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:52
HoldenCaulfield
I love how patriotic Westerners are. As soon as something does not go their way they start talking about Separation.
I have a book suggestion for you
Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta Is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn't Seem to Care) (Hardcover)
by William Marsde
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:53:33 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:53
westerner
Yes indeed, like patriotic Quebec don't you think.
The stupid partisan book by Marsden has been so discredited that I am surprised you would make reference to it. Do you read Maude Barlow as well?
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:01:47 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:01
wyly
hey hang on there....don't put me in the same catagory as the nutty fringe , as a life long westerner (Sask, Yukon and Alberta) I have a huge circle of friends and that topic just brings eyerolling and smirks, I've only one friend that ever expressed that desire....western serparation is pure fantasy held by neo-cons and the ignorant...and if you gain the neo-cons trust what they'll tell you is that what they really want is to join the USA....
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:22:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:22
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Me too...and I would bet the first ones to whine would be the three muskateers here. Their welfare checks would go down the tubes
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:37:32 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:37
westerner
The west would be incredibly richer. We wouldn't be sending billions each year to prop up Quebec, and soon Ontario. Keep the money in the west and kick the Green Shaft Plan back to Ottawa.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:15:16 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:15
elf
Frankly my dear westerner I don't give a damn !! Take your stinky little buckets of oil and your decimated environment and leave - oh and please don't slam the door on the way out !!
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:02:37 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:02
westerner
Thank you for your strong support for western separatism! Your comments are very much appreciated.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:07:59 EDT 2008]