With a five point margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals, the results are currently reminiscent of the 2006 federal election. Support for the BQ continues to ramp up, likely a result of the continued focus on culture and crime. Ontario remains a close race with only four points separating the Liberals and the Conservatives. NDP support in Ontario is also trending upward. Tomorrow’s release of the Conservative platform will be a key event shaping the close of the campaign. With a late platform release and a tightening of the race, there is no room for error for the Conservatives with only about seven days left in the campaign.
Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 4, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (NC)
- Liberal Party 29 (-1)
- NDP 20 (+1)
- BQ 11% (+1)
- Green Party 6% (-1)
- Undecided 15% (+1)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 33% (+1)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 21% (+2)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (-2)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (NC)
- None of them 7% (+1)
- Unsure 15% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The most trustworthy leader
The most competent leader
The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 86 (-12)
- Stephane Dion 58 (-1)
- Jack Layton 55 (-5)
- Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
- Gilles Duceppe 12 (-4)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
Still looking good for the liberals.......Tories continue to slide. ... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 06 Oct 14:10
This is the definitive data point. This tells us the Liberal gains on Friday ... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 06 Oct 14:19
Well I'm quite surprised the numbers are getting this close but I wonder how muc... more
Darryl (Ontario) 06 Oct 14:20
I know you're not referring to my comment, since there was absolutely nothing ra... more
MichaelFox (Ontario) 06 Oct 17:47
How could that possibly have been racist? There was no reference to race anywhe... more
Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 06 Oct 18:08
no it wasn't your comment that bordered on racist michael fox... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 06 Oct 21:33
Comments
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Still looking good for the liberals.......Tories continue to slide.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:10:43 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:10
37 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
It's a horse race!
It's interesting that the Leadership Index Score of all of the top 3 candidates has been dropping as many voters moved to the undecided category on that measure. (Undecideds are included on the Leadership Index)
The Conservatives will have to work hard this week and be on their game to make gains over the last election.
The NDPs hopes of forming the official opposition are fading, as expected. I think they'll finish 4th.
Liberal supporters will probably be happy that they are holding at this level. A decade ago, who would have thought the Liberals would be happy to be 5 points back. :)
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:14:53 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:14
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Lex Llewdor
This is the definitive data point.
This tells us the Liberal gains on Friday were real, but they haven't progressed at all since then. That's useful information.
The other pollsters are missing this, but they're also inflating Green support quite badly - that's the apparent cause for the discrepancy.
This was happening early in the campagin, as well, but the discrepancy had narrowed somewhat. Now it's back.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:19:58 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:19
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Well I'm quite surprised the numbers are getting this close but I wonder how much change this will really mean to seat numbers. A lot of those changed voters could be in ridings that were not going to the CPC's way anyway?
The stock market tumbles are certainly coming into play even though I don't hear any stories about Canadian financial institutions on the verge of going under.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:20:43 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:20
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Mike Stokes
I can't believe Nanos shows the greens at 6 % I really do find that one hard to believe...I think the ranking question used by Nanos favors the Libs over the Greens
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:21:52 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:21
8 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The NDP ride should be over by Wednesday when the soft and parked voters start to show their preferences. They will drop back to around 17% and the libs will be the beneficieries.
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:53:12 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:53
16 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Non-aligned in Toronto
Hi Nik, On Saturday I made this fearless prognostication:
I'll try my hand at prognostication and predict that by Monday (Sunday nights numbers counted) when all of the fallout from the debates have percolated through the roll, that we will see the Conservatives around 33%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP around 21%. The greens will get a bump to 11 or 12 and the rest go to Mr. Duceppe.
My Numbers on The Conservatives and NDP are pretty close but I didn't foresee the migration of Green votes to the Liberals.
At any rate, the trends have re-established themselves, and I am now expecting a considerably weaker Conservative minority Gov't, especially with the resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec, the Dippers in Ontario and British Columbia.
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:23:07 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:23
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
newgeneration voter
Polls show that Canadians are looking for a leader they can trust or identify with and it seems that Stephane Dion has touched a nerve somewhere in most Canadians daily life's- he seems like the guy next door who is just being himself open and straight forward with no frills attached to his views or what plans he has in place for Canada a true leader with a touch of humility and humbleness an open face ... he spells comfort and easy to identify with and Canadians need to feel safe and loved in this times of economic melt down.. the markets are still dropping and instead of the other leaders i.e Harper and Layton speaking out on the worries that Canadians are facing they still put it out their through rosy glasses while Dion come out and said Canadians should be prepared for hard times. and that is what leadership is all about not hiding the truth but dealing with it head on..
my point being a strong and true leader should always prepare his or her peoples to face a storm no matter how bad it looks....
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:36:12 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:36
54 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Darryl
Do you write the campaign brochures for the liberal party of Canada?
[updated Mon Oct 06 15:44:08 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 15:44
Disney Promotions I suspect. He thinks they will win.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:01:19 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:01
MichaelFox
Notice that Liberals supporters always have horrible spelling and grammar?
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:01:17 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:01
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
waht dud your say? what a stupid and almost racist comment.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:55:06 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:55
MichaelFox
I know you're not referring to my comment, since there was absolutely nothing racial about it.
[updated Mon Oct 06 17:47:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 17:47
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
no it wasn't your comment that bordered on racist michael fox
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:33:57 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:33
Lex Llewdor
How could that possibly have been racist? There was no reference to race anywhere in there.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:08:13 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:08
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
maybe I should have used bigot as the operative word. That would be politically correct.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:05:58 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:05
MichaelFox
You have a bad attitude.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:16:09 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:16
HoldenCaulfield
Michael there is no end to your observations and the wisdom that you share with us. It is funny, your party tries to portray Liberals as elitists who attend wine and cheese book readings and art galas, but now you accuse of being illiterate.
Just as note Michael, you would not want to engage in a battle of the CV's between Liberals and Conservatives, I suggest that poll would not even be close my neo con friend.
[updated Mon Oct 06 19:54:28 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 19:54
Prairie Born
Why hasn't anyone mentioned why the Liberals were voted out of office in the first place. Doesn't the fact that they stole 10's of millions of dollars of our money have anything to do with how Canadians view that party. Or is it forgive and forget. And then you have the Conservatives who have frittered away the largest surplus of funds we have ever had, and made their big business friends rich in the process, asking for a majority. Are the people posting here so young that they don't get it???
Both the Liberals and Conservatives have made promises that they never kept, so their platforms are useless. The NDP have never been given a chance , but even they would most likely fall short of promises. So then what does it boil down to? Who deserves your vote??? Who bests represents your interest. If you are wealthy you should be voting Conservative or Liberal, as their policies will lengthen the gap between you and the working class. You will be taxed less and profit more and not have to contribute as much to social programs like Childcare, Pharmacare, Old Age Pension, & Medicare. The environment will not matter... that's for future generations to figure out. So what if there is child poverty out there. Your family is doing OK. Let the others find ways to feed themselves. When the price of a loaf of bread and a quart of milk goes up, who cares about the pensioner on a fixed income, who worries about where the next meal will come from, never mind how to pay for property taxes that have doubled on his or her home. As long as the gap is widening and you get richer, keep those votes for the Conservatives and Liberals coming in. Live for today!!!
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:33:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:33
westerner (suspended)
A very small percentage of Canadians want a hard left socialist government. The left leaning Liberals are scary enough with their carbon tax on everything. We don't need Jack (Chavez) Layton.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:48:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:48
HoldenCaulfield
Westerner, I'm not supporting the NDP this time, but only you could find Layton and his NDP "Hard Left" give me strength. No one in that party even calls themselves socialists anymore and they quit referring to each other as brother and sister back in the 1980's.
Tony Blair's Labour Government has run Britain for quite a while and there is not Soviet Style Government there that I am aware of.
You sound like a redneck reactionary from the Southern USA when you say things like that.
[updated Mon Oct 06 19:58:15 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 19:58
westerner (suspended)
Jack Layton is a socialist substantially left of Tony Blair. He is strongly supported by big labour. When with big labour they still call each other brothers and sisters.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:03:52 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:03
HoldenCaulfield
Why are you afraid of unions, they are just Democracy at work!
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:51:28 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:51
westerner (suspended)
Don't change the channel. The NDP Party is a socialist party whether you like the label or not! By the way, what is "new" about the New Democrats?
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:57:20 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:57
HoldenCaulfield
You mean like what is New about the New Conservatives who are really just Reform Party rejects and casts off from the failed Common Sense Revolution.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:04:58 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:04
westerner (suspended)
Conservatives don't label their Party as New. The NDP do and it is misleading.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:10:51 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:10
westerner (suspended)
Democratic? Is that why they oppose secret ballot votes?
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:37:12 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:37
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
And a very small % of Canadians want a hard right government which is why Harper is so despised and why the left has almost 70% of the votes in this country.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:07:32 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:07
westerner (suspended)
Good to see you finally agree the Liberals are on the left! Dion insists the Liberal Party is "centrist". You obviously disagree with him.
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:29:44 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:29
If you want to blame the Federal gov't for provincial problems okey dokey.
Blame your province and city for your property tax.
You want to solve world hunger go ahead. But don't expect hard working families to keep sending their money for those who don't help themselves.
Get out and vote for your party and their platform. Accept the results.
Any party can promise the moon but once in power every party must face the reality.
Bob Rae NDP in Ontario did and he did not solve those problems. His "union" and "socialist" brothers brought Harris in when he could not give them what they wanted.
So don't expect anytime soon a political party to solve a problem that will exist 4ever.
Inequality will always exist.
[updated Mon Oct 06 17:12:45 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 17:12
larryl
Prairie Born. You must have been born many years ago. You sound like you might have been in the old CCF or at least a Tommy Douglas fan. Unfortunately the NDP lost that when they changed their name. Caring about our fellow citizens has become far too rare. We are part of the " Me" generation but this recession might teach us that we can and should help each other.
[updated Mon Oct 06 22:17:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 22:17
elf
Pairie Born - oh stop it - you are just parrotting what you have heard from the CONservative ads. You and many others are being CONned by the biggest CON artist ever - the CONservative PM !!
we've all heard this rhetoric and if you seriously still believe it you need to check your source of information - it seems to be the tory ads !!
[updated Tue Oct 07 11:48:42 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 11:48
westerner (suspended)
Dion has no experience at all managing anything. He botched the Kyoto file and his claim to fame is teaching political science. He would be scary managing a $200 billion federal budget and several trillion dollar Canadian economy.
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:51:36 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:51
Lex Llewdor
The only advantage of Dion's Green Shift would be the increased support for separatism in the west.
That's something I'd vote for.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:09:13 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:09
westerner (suspended)
Agreed. The Green Shaft Plan, if implemented, would be a strong incentive for a western separation movement or a separation movement in Sask and/or Alberta.
The shift of wealth from the west to east must be stopped.
[updated Mon Oct 06 18:52:53 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 18:52
HoldenCaulfield
I love how patriotic Westerners are. As soon as something does not go their way they start talking about Separation.
I have a book suggestion for you
Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta Is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn't Seem to Care) (Hardcover)
by William Marsde
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:53:33 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:53
westerner (suspended)
Yes indeed, like patriotic Quebec don't you think.
The stupid partisan book by Marsden has been so discredited that I am surprised you would make reference to it. Do you read Maude Barlow as well?
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:01:47 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:01
wyly
hey hang on there....don't put me in the same catagory as the nutty fringe , as a life long westerner (Sask, Yukon and Alberta) I have a huge circle of friends and that topic just brings eyerolling and smirks, I've only one friend that ever expressed that desire....western serparation is pure fantasy held by neo-cons and the ignorant...and if you gain the neo-cons trust what they'll tell you is that what they really want is to join the USA....
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:22:52 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:22
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Me too...and I would bet the first ones to whine would be the three muskateers here. Their welfare checks would go down the tubes
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:37:32 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:37
westerner (suspended)
The west would be incredibly richer. We wouldn't be sending billions each year to prop up Quebec, and soon Ontario. Keep the money in the west and kick the Green Shaft Plan back to Ottawa.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:15:16 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:15
elf
Frankly my dear westerner I don't give a damn !! Take your stinky little buckets of oil and your decimated environment and leave - oh and please don't slam the door on the way out !!
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:02:37 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:02
westerner (suspended)
Thank you for your strong support for western separatism! Your comments are very much appreciated.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:07:59 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:07
wyly
by your comments your either very young or a poor student of history, for decades years Ontario carried the west...only now that natural resources are(were) at record levels due to industrialization of the third world are we doing so well....Sask has only become a have prov in the last couple of years....
[updated Sat Oct 11 12:29:22 EDT 2008]
11 Oct 12:29
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
What experience did harper have prior to being elected PM other than running a think tank that was supported by the wealthy right wingers in Calgary. Another straw you are grasping at.
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:36:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:36
westerner (suspended)
Wealthy left wingers like you know how to recognize other wealthy people in Calgary. You are all alike; winter in Florida and have large investment portfolios.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:08:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:08
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Its Barbados by the way.......tory peons go to florida or Arizona
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:09:11 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:09
westerner (suspended)
Barbados? You must be really rich.
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:31:22 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:31
HoldenCaulfield
Dion has been a politician longer than Steve Harper. I would also suggest that someone who is a political scientist may make an excellent politician wouldn't you think. I know that you have a tradition in Alberta of celebrating the undereducated in Government (Ralph Klein).
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:06:50 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:06
westerner (suspended)
You just can't seem to stop making bigoted comments. I had more respect for people from Ontario but you have ended that.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:13:10 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:13
supper
I love bigoted comments about Ontario. I do agree with the op that Dion is striking a chord. Work mates that hate the liberals have been making positive statements about Dion's personality since the great debates. Pretty obvious that he was the big winner.
The interesting thing will be Harper's platform. Difficult for him now. Too many promises and he will be accused of lying about the economy. Too little and he will be called a miser. Serves him right for trying to win by attack ads without substance.
[updated Tue Oct 07 01:57:03 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 01:57
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
I know that going door to door in my riding I hear very little negative stuff about Dion and I'm canvassing the "B" and "C" sections of our riding. The worst stuff I hear is the fact people are not Liberals and not anti Dion. Those people are long standing supporters of other parties.
The numbers keep rolling in to our local liberal candidate's office and the numbers are clearly showing what appears to be a much lower Tory vote count in a riding Harper has targeted and visited many many times in the last few years. This trend has become more noticeable in the last week to ten days and appears to be growing as time gets closer to the election. This is what a good ground game can do, something the Tories do not have in most of Ontario and that's why the Liberal brand is solid. People are involved and there are literally hundreds of Liberal volunteers helping out many of whom are new.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:18:13 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:18
westerner (suspended)
All parties are using attack ads that stretch the truth and are without substance. Politics is a dirty game. Unfortunately attack ads seem to work!
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:23:49 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:23
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Westerner coming from you that's a compliment.
[updated Tue Oct 07 05:10:17 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 05:10
westerner (suspended)
Your welcome.
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:32:04 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:32
elf
Go Holden !! stick it to him !! it appears that many Albertans are very fond of their un-educated politicians and appear to have little respect for intelligence or integrity
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:04:40 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:04
westerner (suspended)
Another bigoted comment. Way to go elfie.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:11:55 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:11
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
westerner trying to catch up you is hard in the bigot department
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:29:32 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:29
westerner (suspended)
The above statement makes no sense. Want to try again?
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:48:05 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:48
elf
westerner - please see my response to Prairie Born becasue it clearly also applies to you too - why don't you people stop the rhotorical nonsense and discuss the real issues like why the PM has LIED to the voters ? like why the PM has broken his promises and contracts ? like why the PM continues to pretend there is no economic problem and why the heck he has that gnome Flagherty as his Finance Minister - the man who gave Ontario the worse economic situation in years !!?
[updated Tue Oct 07 11:52:38 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 11:52
westerner (suspended)
elf: Why don't you people stop the rhetorical nonsense and discuss the real issues like why Martin and Chretien lied to the voters? Like why they broke their promises and contracts? And explain why Martin and Chretien disliked each other so much that Chretien left Martin a mess when he assumed leadership of the LPC. And why the Liberal Party is in the hip pocket of major Canadian corporations?
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:05:40 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:05
elf
westerner - hello - it is irrelevent what you think of either of them as neither of them are running in this election or did you fail to notice that ?
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:10:58 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:10
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
elf, he didn't notice. He still thinks Mulroney is PM
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:30:33 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:30
How many of the 15% of the unsure or undecided are already committed but won't reveal?
I will give CPC 5% Lib 6% NDP 2% Green 1% Bloc 1%.
This is my prediction in final vote breakdown.
34+5=39%
29+6=35%
NDP+2=22%
[updated Mon Oct 06 16:09:32 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 16:09
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Theodore
Nik said on CPAC that he would poll second choices. When will this be done? It will be interesting to see how few will choose the Conservatives as their second choice. This will undermine the legitimacy of a Conservative government, if we get one.
With strategic voting, many of us will vote for our second choice, if that candidate stands a better chance of defeating the Conservative candidate. We may even vote for our third choice!
What is happening now makes me think that a preferential ballot would solve much of our problems. If no candidate gets 50% or more, all second choices would be counted in. No MP would be voted in with less than 50% of first and second choice votes. This would significantly increase their legitimacy.
It would be a much simpler reform than going for MMPP or STV.
Please, Nik, do a polling on this question!
Theo Geraets, prof. emeritus, U. of Ottawa
[updated Mon Oct 06 17:55:05 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 17:55
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
apoelstra
I find it interesting that the Conservatives have gone down every Monday (ending Sunday) so far, then gone up the following day. This is seen a bit with the Liberals as well - only the NDP seems to fare well on weekend polls.
[updated Mon Oct 06 19:05:53 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 19:05
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
I notice the G&M is now reporting Nik's poll numbers alongside their own pollster in their articles on the Election. That's a pretty good indication they know Nik's numbers are right.
[updated Mon Oct 06 21:52:58 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 21:52
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
pamdenec
The election will be decided by 50 or less close ridings. The surveys should focus on those. Polls that vaerage dominant liberal ridings win with dominant conservative ridings are pretty much useless.
[updated Mon Oct 06 22:16:34 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 22:16
6 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Coryphaeus
One thing that Nik's numbers show is that votes are walking out of the Conservative camp and into the Liberal camp. The shift has been rather quick after the debate and because of the concentration of seats in Southern Ontario (the most densely populated area of that Province that Jim Flaherty doesn't think is a good place to invest) a small shift in voter support makes a big shift in seats. Harper has shown that there has not been any real development in Tory thinking regarding Ontario and the manufacturing sector. More importantly, the optics of Harper's "trust us everything is okay" message against the backdrop of stock market mayhem says "trust us even though we don't really care" to the average citizen watching his or her pension savings dwindle as their job begins to look more precarious. I expect the shift to the Liberal camp to continue to the tune of at least 3 more %, at least in Ontario. This will mean that there will be a minority government ... a Liberal minority government ... with the Liberals holding 117 seats nationally and the conservatives 112. This of course is the perfect (and typically Canadian) answer to the heavy "don't trust Dion" advertising of the Conservatives, namely, to elect Dion who has put forward a positive plan while leaving Harper to act as an anchor. Elect the reformer and tie his hands. Poetic justice. The best of both worlds.
[updated Mon Oct 06 23:03:25 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 23:03
18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
HoldenCaulfield
Congrats to the Neo Cons who decided to at least stay around and fight the good fight, after you could no longer deny that the numbers had really shifted against the Conservatives. Some of the more strident posters such as the wise Robini, have not shown such resolve in the face of reality.
[updated Tue Oct 07 00:09:45 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 00:09
22 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Is Harper a Choker when the chips are down?
The G&M story seems to indicate that and it will make people wonder why they should vote for someone to run a Country when he can't answer the gong at important and stressful times.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081007.welectanalysis07/BNStory/politics/
[updated Tue Oct 07 08:21:26 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 08:21
3 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
alanl
The Nanos polls appear to be tracking the real grass roots numbers across the country. Good work Nick and his team!!
I commented to CTV on their out of date poll results. This is what I sent to CTV
"I'm not sure that Harper's announcement of a platform is going to help his chances of increasing his seat total in Parliament.
Also it's curious that the CTV national poll tracker hasn't been updated since Sept 28-29. Also the battleground numbers are still in the Sept 26-Oct 2 grid.
I hope that Harper is not influencing what CTV is reporting or not reporting."
They allowed my first sentence but censored the part about the out of date poll numbers.
Where is the fair, whether good or bad, reporting in this country going?
[updated Tue Oct 07 10:50:54 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 10:50
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Harper's opportunism is obvious. Problem is it may backfire - Quebec is bailing. By the way - what happened to the set election date? He brought his own minority down? The Act was to avoid political opportunism - he could not even keep that promise.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:23:39 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:23
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Hang on stop the NIK presses - Harper the opportunist does it again. Quebec is slipping - there goes the film regulation...
It should never have been there in the first place - but for Reformer Harper - it was "RIGHT" up his alley. However opportunity calls.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:35:44 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:35
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
There goes another person speaking freely. I think the man was saying vote anybody but Harper at the Empire Club when he was removed body and bones.
[updated Tue Oct 07 12:39:57 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 12:39
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.