CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 5)

Still looking good for the liberals.......Tories continue to slide.

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:10:43 EDT 2008]

It's a horse race!

It's interesting that the Leadership Index Score of all of the top 3 candidates has been dropping as many voters moved to the undecided category on that measure. (Undecideds are included on the Leadership Index)

The Conservatives will have to work hard this week and be on their game to make gains over the last election.

The NDPs hopes of forming the official opposition are fading, as expected. I think they'll finish 4th.

Liberal supporters will probably be happy that they are holding at this level. A decade ago, who would have thought the Liberals would be happy to be 5 points back. :)

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:14:53 EDT 2008]

This is the definitive data point.

This tells us the Liberal gains on Friday were real, but they haven't progressed at all since then. That's useful information.

The other pollsters are missing this, but they're also inflating Green support quite badly - that's the apparent cause for the discrepancy.

This was happening early in the campagin, as well, but the discrepancy had narrowed somewhat. Now it's back.

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:19:58 EDT 2008]

Well I'm quite surprised the numbers are getting this close but I wonder how much change this will really mean to seat numbers. A lot of those changed voters could be in ridings that were not going to the CPC's way anyway?

The stock market tumbles are certainly coming into play even though I don't hear any stories about Canadian financial institutions on the verge of going under.

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:20:43 EDT 2008]

I can't believe Nanos shows the greens at 6 % I really do find that one hard to believe...I think the ranking question used by Nanos favors the Libs over the Greens

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:21:52 EDT 2008]

The NDP ride should be over by Wednesday when the soft and parked voters start to show their preferences. They will drop back to around 17% and the libs will be the beneficieries.

[updated Mon Oct 06 14:53:12 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik, On Saturday I made this fearless prognostication:

I'll try my hand at prognostication and predict that by Monday (Sunday nights numbers counted) when all of the fallout from the debates have percolated through the roll, that we will see the Conservatives around 33%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP around 21%. The greens will get a bump to 11 or 12 and the rest go to Mr. Duceppe.

My Numbers on The Conservatives and NDP are pretty close but I didn't foresee the migration of Green votes to the Liberals.

At any rate, the trends have re-established themselves, and I am now expecting a considerably weaker Conservative minority Gov't, especially with the resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec, the Dippers in Ontario and British Columbia.

[updated Mon Oct 06 15:23:07 EDT 2008]

Polls show that Canadians are looking for a leader they can trust or identify with and it seems that Stephane Dion has touched a nerve somewhere in most Canadians daily life's- he seems like the guy next door who is just being himself open and straight forward with no frills attached to his views or what plans he has in place for Canada a true leader with a touch of humility and humbleness an open face ... he spells comfort and easy to identify with and Canadians need to feel safe and loved in this times of economic melt down.. the markets are still dropping and instead of the other leaders i.e Harper and Layton speaking out on the worries that Canadians are facing they still put it out their through rosy glasses while Dion come out and said Canadians should be prepared for hard times. and that is what leadership is all about not hiding the truth but dealing with it head on..
my point being a strong and true leader should always prepare his or her peoples to face a storm no matter how bad it looks....

[updated Mon Oct 06 15:36:12 EDT 2008]

How many of the 15% of the unsure or undecided are already committed but won't reveal?

I will give CPC 5% Lib 6% NDP 2% Green 1% Bloc 1%.

This is my prediction in final vote breakdown.

34+5=39%
29+6=35%
NDP+2=22%

[updated Mon Oct 06 16:09:32 EDT 2008]

Nik said on CPAC that he would poll second choices. When will this be done? It will be interesting to see how few will choose the Conservatives as their second choice. This will undermine the legitimacy of a Conservative government, if we get one.
With strategic voting, many of us will vote for our second choice, if that candidate stands a better chance of defeating the Conservative candidate. We may even vote for our third choice!
What is happening now makes me think that a preferential ballot would solve much of our problems. If no candidate gets 50% or more, all second choices would be counted in. No MP would be voted in with less than 50% of first and second choice votes. This would significantly increase their legitimacy.
It would be a much simpler reform than going for MMPP or STV.
Please, Nik, do a polling on this question!

Theo Geraets, prof. emeritus, U. of Ottawa

[updated Mon Oct 06 17:55:05 EDT 2008]

I find it interesting that the Conservatives have gone down every Monday (ending Sunday) so far, then gone up the following day. This is seen a bit with the Liberals as well - only the NDP seems to fare well on weekend polls.

[updated Mon Oct 06 19:05:53 EDT 2008]

I notice the G&M is now reporting Nik's poll numbers alongside their own pollster in their articles on the Election. That's a pretty good indication they know Nik's numbers are right.

[updated Mon Oct 06 21:52:58 EDT 2008]

The election will be decided by 50 or less close ridings. The surveys should focus on those. Polls that vaerage dominant liberal ridings win with dominant conservative ridings are pretty much useless.

[updated Mon Oct 06 22:16:34 EDT 2008]

One thing that Nik's numbers show is that votes are walking out of the Conservative camp and into the Liberal camp. The shift has been rather quick after the debate and because of the concentration of seats in Southern Ontario (the most densely populated area of that Province that Jim Flaherty doesn't think is a good place to invest) a small shift in voter support makes a big shift in seats. Harper has shown that there has not been any real development in Tory thinking regarding Ontario and the manufacturing sector. More importantly, the optics of Harper's "trust us everything is okay" message against the backdrop of stock market mayhem says "trust us even though we don't really care" to the average citizen watching his or her pension savings dwindle as their job begins to look more precarious. I expect the shift to the Liberal camp to continue to the tune of at least 3 more %, at least in Ontario. This will mean that there will be a minority government ... a Liberal minority government ... with the Liberals holding 117 seats nationally and the conservatives 112. This of course is the perfect (and typically Canadian) answer to the heavy "don't trust Dion" advertising of the Conservatives, namely, to elect Dion who has put forward a positive plan while leaving Harper to act as an anchor. Elect the reformer and tie his hands. Poetic justice. The best of both worlds.

[updated Mon Oct 06 23:03:25 EDT 2008]

Congrats to the Neo Cons who decided to at least stay around and fight the good fight, after you could no longer deny that the numbers had really shifted against the Conservatives. Some of the more strident posters such as the wise Robini, have not shown such resolve in the face of reality.

[updated Tue Oct 07 00:09:45 EDT 2008]

Is Harper a Choker when the chips are down?

The G&M story seems to indicate that and it will make people wonder why they should vote for someone to run a Country when he can't answer the gong at important and stressful times.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081007.welectanalysis07/BNStory/politics/

[updated Tue Oct 07 08:21:26 EDT 2008]

The Nanos polls appear to be tracking the real grass roots numbers across the country. Good work Nick and his team!!

I commented to CTV on their out of date poll results. This is what I sent to CTV

"I'm not sure that Harper's announcement of a platform is going to help his chances of increasing his seat total in Parliament.

Also it's curious that the CTV national poll tracker hasn't been updated since Sept 28-29. Also the battleground numbers are still in the Sept 26-Oct 2 grid.

I hope that Harper is not influencing what CTV is reporting or not reporting."

They allowed my first sentence but censored the part about the out of date poll numbers.

Where is the fair, whether good or bad, reporting in this country going?

[updated Tue Oct 07 10:50:54 EDT 2008]

Harper's opportunism is obvious. Problem is it may backfire - Quebec is bailing. By the way - what happened to the set election date? He brought his own minority down? The Act was to avoid political opportunism - he could not even keep that promise.

[updated Tue Oct 07 12:23:39 EDT 2008]

Hang on stop the NIK presses - Harper the opportunist does it again. Quebec is slipping - there goes the film regulation...

It should never have been there in the first place - but for Reformer Harper - it was "RIGHT" up his alley. However opportunity calls.

[updated Tue Oct 07 12:35:44 EDT 2008]

There goes another person speaking freely. I think the man was saying vote anybody but Harper at the Empire Club when he was removed body and bones.

[updated Tue Oct 07 12:39:57 EDT 2008]