The fallout from the French and English debates shows the previous pre-debate 10 point Conservative margin is now four percentage points. Tracking shows incremental movement in favour of the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Dion registered his highest score as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minsiter at 20% although he still trails Stephen Harper by 12 points.
Regionally, the Liberals were more likely to realize gains in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Battleground Ontario remains a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives while the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead in Western Canada.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 3, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,029, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (-1)
- Liberal Party 30 (+2)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (-1)
- Undecided 14% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 20% (+3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- None of them 6% (-2)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 98 (+9)
- Jack Layton 60 (+1)
- Stephane Dion 59 (+7)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (+4)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more alon... more
gretag (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:17
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Con... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 05 Oct 14:24
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That al... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:53
People are beginning to wonder about a Prime Minister who ignores the financial ... more
HoldenCaulfield (Ontario) 05 Oct 19:00
It seems that the only real work ever done in Ottawa, was while there was majori... more
robini (Ontario) 05 Oct 20:17
Holden people are starting to see that emperor harper has no clothes. ... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 22:45
Comments
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18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
Thanks giving supper table discussions may decide this election. I am suprised it tightened up again. I know some have said liberals poll well on weekends. But never this well. It looks like voter turnout will end up being very important. The inconsistencys with other polls remains a factor, Nik has proved however he has the best results in past. Hold on to your hats its going to be close!!!
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:09:24 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:09
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more along the lines of C:38-40, L21-23, N20-22.
I notice Angus Reid has a new Toronto Star poll which shows the same trend as Nik's numbers. Yet the Star is running with the Harris-Decima poll and saying the Liberals are plummeting and the NDP is rising. The rest of the media is pushing the same narrative. It's confusing that there are such different trends/numbers circulating.
Since the media insists on spinning narratives around the numbers, it is frustrating that they all portray the same subset of numbers and ignore anything that doesn't fit their narrative.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:17:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:17
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Conservative minority which will contnue the unproductive partisanship exhibited in Parlimentary Committees.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:24:34 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:24
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That along with the Liberal surge suggests to me that the Libs are now possibly tied with the Cons,or at least even closer than Nik's numbers. We'll see that over time.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:53:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:53
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Another look at the numbers suggests that the practical Green supporters are now drifting to the Libs as their numbers are down. The more center of NDP supporters will follow next now that Jack is frozen and will start to drift back to 17% or less. The bloc will now focus on the NDP as they don't want to see them with a beachhead there and strategic lib votes will start to move in the coming days. The libs are canvassing those NDP voters and asking for their supporters to help stop Harper and this will resonate as time goes by and Layton looks more and more like the loser he is.
[updated Sun Oct 05 15:05:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 15:05
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
watchingtosee
As the election nears the end and after the debates, the tightening of the polls is expected in light of the strong showing by Dion in the French debate and not a bad performance in the English: The fact that Harper is trying to "act" soft will not preclude the fact that proglonged visual exposure in the debate tends to show people whether they feel they can trust him or not. I think this is what is happening... no science to it and not quantifiable -but a gut feeling.
Layton is good, however again it does come back to credability and if the voters believe they want to trust a party who has never had power. especailly in the upcoming economic times.
There were a few things said during the debates which captured the attention of others I think, Do people believe that the our economy will not be damaged severly if the USA suffers a major economic downturn. After all, Canada trades approximently 90% (verify) of its products with them. I believe this is what Harper has alluded to and that our fundementals were strong.. It sounds errily familar to John McCains redition until he was forced change gears a few hours later.
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:13:05 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:13
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
True leaders must be practical but at the same time can not spread extreme doom and gloom and cause a panic in the markets. Keeping a stiff upper lip is a good thing in troubled times. Can you imagine our national leaders running around Canada yelling "the sky is falling, run for the hills". That would be the height of irresponsibility.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:09:18 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:09
Foxer
True. The fastest way to create a recession or depression is to insist there's going to be one.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:10:28 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:10
westerner (suspended)
Unfortunately there is economic doom and gloom being spread by the NDP and Liberals to score points during the election.Harper is trying to calm nervous people but is being castigated for it. Dion and Layton should know better.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:16:09 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:16
Foxer
Dion only cares about getting into power. This is a man who's trying to introduce 'plagiarism' as a serious election issue. He doesn't care at all about doing harm to people.
Layton probably really believes that if he taxes businesses it'll help the situation. He's a little nutty that way.
Once the cpc wins, especially if it wins a majority or close to it, the markets in Canada will improve. Business likes investing where there's stability and there's low taxes.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:20:53 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:20
SireJoe
You've GOT to be kidding me. SOME of our politicians are actually speaking the truth and you are chastising them? Puuuhlease. I'll take a Liberal government that is planning ahead and taking measures to make sure we the people are better off and not bent over waiting for something to happen than the alternative do nothing "All is well! We have STRONG fundamentals!" crap.
I find it incredibly funny how most con supports, on the one hand say that the government has no control over the world economy, and no matter what they do, they wont help or hinder whats coming, yet when the other party makes a point of bringing up what could be coming, you go off the deep end stating they are HOPING for a recession and CREATING one by talking about the concerns of every citizen of Canada.
Pick a side on this, 'cause you can't have it both ways.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:34:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:34
Foxer
None of our politicians are telling the 'truth'. Or they all are depending on how you choose to look at it. They're all 'spinning' it.
The liberal gov't has not planned ahead at all. If they were - they'd never have had the green plan in the first place. What the liberals are proposing is that they promise to COME UP with a plan within 30 days of taking office. Their 'plan' is to hold a bunch of meetings.
The ndp does have a plan - but their plan is to keep taxes up on business and invest that capital in 'kitchen table' issues believing that this will help. THat's very questionable, but it is a plan.
Harper has a plan and in fact has been working it. Remember - he was the first to sound the alarm more than a year ago, saying we are going to have difficult times ahead (challenging and unstable i think he said). He started his plan a year ago and it's had good effect. His plan now is to continue pretty much with the plan he's been working - keep taxes low to encourage business, targeted spending on specific industries and communities to help keep jobs and create new jobs, and encourage people to keep spending to keep economic stimulation strong. Which is exactly why we havent had a recession according to studies so far.
And your 'humour' over the economy makes absolutely no sense. Gov'ts do have very limited control over the national and global economy. That is the truth. They can do some things to help or hinder, but the idea of a 'free' market is that the market controls things. Obviously our challenges in Canada are largely a result of the American situation, which no canadian gov't controls.
However - it's quite obvious that dion has been seriously hoping for an economic down turn. He believes that it can be used to suggest the CPC is somehow ruined the economy. He also is praying for a deficit, tho obviously that's not going to happen. Why else would he lie so consistently suggesting we're 'close' to one? We clearly aren't. But if we were he believes he can use it to suggest the CPC has screwed up.
There's nothing contradictory about those two things. The gov't has less control over the economy than dion suggests - but he believes he can convince people that an economic down turn is somehow the fault of the tories and would clearly love to see the situation worsen to improve his political situation.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:57:04 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:57
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Sire Joe..........Great post. its good to see another new poster here ram the phony western whiners.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:49:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:49
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The Liberals are simply stating that Harper is lying because he won't produce an economic blueprint.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:04:07 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:04
Foxer
Which of course is itself a lie. He has - they just don't want people to think he has or admit it's been working so well. Which is of course very liberal.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:10:57 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:10
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Ah you mean harper is being truthful like he was with the income trusts? I got it now!!!
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:12:57 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:12
Foxer
No - i mean libs are lying like they did about stealing people's money to fund their campaign. Or like dion did when he said he was against the income trust taxes, then voted for it - or like he said he was against carbon taxes and now wants one, or like he said he'd stop abstaining in parliament then continued to do so for a year, or like he said that he didn't support the extension of the afghan mission then voted to extend it. Or how he wanted an election and campaigned all summer on his green plan then was angry when an election came along.
Got it now? :)
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:24:43 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:24
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Give it up the jig is up and Tories are on the run..they screwed up and it will cost them dearly but be a blessing to Canada because Harper will resign in disgrace and humiliation.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:28:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:28
Foxer
and there's no american's near bagdad right? :)
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:42:37 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:42
HoldenCaulfield
You can see right here on this thread what will happen to the Conservatives over the next week as the polls look bad for them. They will begin to lose their minds and when all of that anger (that West wants in Anger) starts to boil over, Harper will not be able to contain the lunatic fringe in his own party.
Not just the members, but the supporters. I saw on the evening news that in Liberal Dr. Carolyn Bennet's riding in Toronto, homes with Liberal Election signs were attack with Graffiti and in at least one case the brake lines on an automobile were cut causing an accident. The Police are investigating this rash of anti Liberal attacks in that area.
I'm not suggesting that the Conservative party arranged something like that, what I am suggesting is that the new Conservative Party (Reform Party with a new name) attracts the lunatic fringe who would do something like this. No discussion, no compromise, just dumbed down anger, and a lack of civility.
Watch the next week or so and mark my word, intolerance will raise it's ugly head this coming week.
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:38:16 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:38
Foxer
Could just as easily be ndp attacking the libs - more their style. :)
Methinks thou dost protest too much :) We're still winning. Maybe if we were losing, but generally you don't go trashing the opposition's stuff when you're ahead.
Case in point - that liberal in the east who got caught trashing CPC signs.
You have to remember - we're winning in every poll, and nik is the only one where it's even remotely close.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:48:03 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:48
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
foxer self denial is not good.....you need to speak the truth man.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:51:21 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:51
Foxer
Well it's hard to argue with such an expert on the subject :)
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:47:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:47
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden Great post.
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:24:44 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:24
Funny thing you mention "attracts the lunatic fringe" I linked the Senior Liberal in PEI (executive director) removing signs and destroying CPC property and lying to Elections Canada about the tag lines. a few days ago. Did you miss that?
Probably another "staged" event like in Halton with Garth Turner in his CPAC door to door campaign. He fired the campaign manager after he got caught btw. Rofl....
Want that link too?
Want the link again? Photos and apologies from the senior liberal busted in the photos. Google Liberal "goons" in PEI ....lol.
Keep distracting voters from your party's issues and the Green Shaft Tax Grab where seniors will get "Taxed" as they do in BC already!
Since you support ABC you want a Quebec split and more taxes for Ontario Auto Industry and more tax dollars sent to Quebec. Keep up the good work!
Oh and blame the western Canadians and Americans for your failure on the Liberal Campaign.
Move forward 6 months.....
Rae is Liberal leader after Dion takes new post at McDonalds ...I mean McGill.
Cheers!
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:43:06 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:43
westerner (suspended)
You couldn't be a Liberal supporter after they promised to eliminate the GST, renegotiate NAFTA and set up a national daycare program. All broken election promises. Liberals deceive during an election.
Some bloggers also deceive by changing their alias frequently, right MBAGS or is it TPQ or is it gohabs??
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:15:54 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:15
HoldenCaulfield
The Liberals did establish a National Daycare program, the Conservatives killed in 2006. I know because I was working at the Provincial and Local level on programs for implementation of this strategy, until Harper killed the program and left working mothers on their own.
That's the problem with the Harper Conservatives, they leave people on their own, Canadian families deserve better.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:47:29 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:47
supper
Why unfortunate? The opposition have put up with 2 years of negative attack ads. The election started with a bird pooping on Dion. Now after all this it is considered unfair that Harper's poor economic showing is being contrasted with Martin's stewardship?
No personal blow is too low for this guy. I feel sorry for his party members that donate to this garbage.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:35:54 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:35
Foxer
Riiiiight. Dion's called him a liar, tried to blow 'plagerism' into a major issue, and the libs ran nothing but attack ads against him during the last 2 campaigns (they ran in our cities. In canada. We're not making this up :) )
And somehow the meltdown in the states is now harper's fault? Give your head a shake. It's sad seeing canadians rooting for economic hardship just to further their own political agenda's.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:50:12 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:50
supper
Plagiarism is a major issue for honest people. Stephen Harper's lack of social spending along with increased military spending mirrors and has actively supported the George Bush world. Is on the record many times that Harper wanted a closer relationship, why deny it now?
So as a member do you feel a little sleazy watching those ads? Maybe like those liberals that are being mimicked (isn't that the excuse)?
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:24:47 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:24
Foxer
Plagiarism is in no way shape or form an issue for anyone who isn't desperate for there to be an issue. It was more of a chance to sneak in a reminder that he supported the war.
The harris one wasn't even plagerism - it was just 'similar', And only two lines. But it tied him to harris in a round about way.
it's cheezy, cheap, scum politics. And it's exactly why people don't trust the libs.
As far as the ads go - the lib ads are as slimy as any.
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:52:50 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:52
supper
So do you feel a little sleazy?
[updated Mon Oct 06 01:07:02 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 01:07
Foxer
Watching political ads?
No, not sleazy - a little disappointed because i know all these crap ads from the libs cpc and ndp actually work, which is a bit of a sad testiment to people of all stripes. But that's about it.
Some of it really seems unusually petty. We saw some of that last election (soldiers, in our city, in canada, etc) and we've seen some in this election (plagerism etc ), but really it's all the same crap and there just aren't any political parties that seem above it.
But they do it because it works. I think stephane dion is a little 'extra' disappointing because he pretended he wasn't going to do any of that and that didn't even last 24 hours - but really none of them are impressive.
[updated Mon Oct 06 02:34:42 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 02:34
westerner (suspended)
Most interesting to now see the NDP American style attack ads turned on the Liberals. This week will get a little dirty as all parties adopt American style attack ads; Liberals especially, they love American style politics
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:28:01 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:28
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
It simply tells me that Layton has given up on the fantasy of becoming PM and now sees the polls turning in favor of the Libs. His numbers will still drop this coming week and they already have in Quebec.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:02:59 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:02
HoldenCaulfield
I think that Palgerism is a major issues for those of us who believe that ethics and integrity are important. I would guess that people who don't put much weight on it , also don't care much about the latter either.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:49:08 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:49
Foxer
Nobody who votes liberal truly believes ethics and integrity are important. If they did - they'd vote ndp or cpc.
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:06:41 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:06
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Or to lie about one that maybe already underway which is my strong suspicion.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:03:14 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:03
Foxer
No lie involved - there's no recession in canada. Even dion doesn't suggest there is. Dion is suggesting that there's going to be in the future.
Amusingly, when harper said we were going to have economic challenges a year ago, dion labeled him an 'alarmist'. Harper's message has stayed the same and still is - it's going to be challenging times but we're in good shape and we will come out the other side in relatively good shape if we don't do something stupid.
Whereas dion has done a real 180 - now claiming that disaster looms and he's going to take firm action! - by holding meetings with premiers he admits he won't listen to much for a month. Wow. That'll solve everything.
Harper plans. Dion just reacts. That's the difference between a leader and someone who's not a leader.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:16:44 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:16
It seems the doom and gloom squads, Libs and NDP are in full rhetoric fluff. Give the polls till the end of the week while the Cons put out a few more planks and then we will see the CPC climb again in the polls.
[updated Sun Oct 05 20:12:09 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 20:12
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Ah another sand box expert speaks his mind. What facts make you believe that. The one that saw tories hanging on for dear life at the end of the last election when thye had 140 or more seats in their sights and could not close the deal. They won't even come close this time as the jig is up between Harper and the Canadian people. he's dead meat.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:54:17 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:54
Foxer
hehehe - keep dreaming bud :)
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:54:56 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:54
watchingtosee
I think it is important to leave the rhetoric out of politics ...true enough- however, the idea that one party does it more than another is a little over the top,, the fact is that voters listen to the rhetoric and make a decsion based on that and what they perceive to be true.
The economic gloom and doom scernerio is not something that any of us have experienced - as of yet... my prediciton is that for a while the economy of the USA well do ok ,,,but thats it... the economics of twenty years of spending in the USA has put them in a postion of the largest debtor since i really dont know when ... but I do know this ...
fact ... the repulicans have controlled the WhiteHouse for the 20 years of the last twenty-eight. Now what do we have... the reality is if their economy nose dives and consumer spending drops - we are in trouble. SO I dont buy into the notion that everything is good in Canada ... and predictions or speculations of what might happen to our economy are a good thing as some people may prepare for it ...
Finally, having experienced both great success and failures in my own life, has lead me to believe that a minority government is the best thing that can happen for Canada no matter which way it goes ... at least we can decide at any time to move one of them on t again...plus it will force the politicans to work together at least for a while, until one of them thinks they can squeak out a majority...thats the reality
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:29:51 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:29
Agreed if the US economy tanks, we will not be immune.
Does it make sense for a sitting PM to tell the public the US numbers are going to cause a long recession in Canada? I don't think it does.
Has he been warning us about the problems in the US? Yes.
The meltdown in the US does not belong to the republicans only in fact everyone who benefitted is responsible for the largest Ponzi scheme in history.
Republicans, Democrats, Banks,Regulators, Insurance, Appraisers, Mortgage holders played a game of pushing and inflating values in the housing market for 15 years with a low interest policy and using credit for everything.
Everyone got in the action as money moved up the economy.
Now its time to pay!
The problem with your minority gov't is the Bloc has no interest in the "National" good and idealogy will always get in the way of the right thing to do.
I would rather have a Liberal/CPC majority to address the problems. That way in 3-4 years I can boot them if they underperformed.
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:51:02 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:51
It seems that the only real work ever done in Ottawa, was while there was majorities in power. Almost all the minorities have been nothing but partisan politics and squabiling. This anit-american rhetoric that Dion and Layton are spewing could seriously cause future problems. Do they not realize that the American politicians watch and keep an eye on our elections too?? Talk about Layton and Dion putting their faces in the sand on this, the last time this happened was the 2006 Martin minority when Paul insulted the US on Kyoto. Talk about hipocrytes.
[updated Sun Oct 05 20:17:30 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 20:17
watchingtosee
I think it is not much of a worry for the USA who is in power here... However i would remind you that it was Harper chief of staff who kinda set some bad relations with Obama ...should he win ... if he does win, he will not forget how close he come to getting beat after the pounding he took over the free trade issue... Just a thought....
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:31:52 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:31
Foxer
Naw. That's not an issue. Harper and obama agree on a lot of platform issues, there won't be any bad blood. Harper moved fast to deal with that crap, and obama knows it happens. His own party's had its share of leaks.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:51:38 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:51
HoldenCaulfield
Robini
You certainly are not a student of history are you? No work done in Ottawa with Minority Governments what are you are talking about? The only Prime Minister in history to win a Nobel Peace Prize, Liberal Lester Pearson, was the Prime Minister of Successive Minority Parliaments, he managed to establish us as a world peace keeper, and to pass much of the Social Safety net including Canada Pensions, universal health care, a New Flag, the Order of Canada, and student loans.
Give me a break!
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:49:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:49
wyly
give me a minority any day, the best democracy we can hope for...better than 40% of the population having a majority to force the other 60% to do things they don't approve of..
and what do we care what the americans think...since when are we a vassal state?
[updated Thu Oct 09 14:40:48 EDT 2008]
09 Oct 14:40
DI-380
Hi Nik,
Do you tabulate the results per riding anywhere, to see what the results would be in terms of seats in the House of Commons? I realize the sample size and accuracy would be reduced in terms of popular opinion, but we don't have proportional representation, so the result would be more meaningful to me.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:22:20 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:22
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bud the spud
One thing I don't understand is how Harper rate so high in leadership. If your definition of a leader is the person in charge, then he's definitely in charge of the Conservative party.
A more important question is how a person exercises his or her authority. Here Harper has shown himself to be very weak. He does not seem to be capable of attacting capable people to work with him, for one, and when he does he often loses them. It'stelling how many cabinet ministers are not running again. The numerous adolescent gaffes during the campaign also demonstrate a weakness in recruiting skill. He also does not seem to trust his cabinet; they very seldom have permission to speak on the issues.
Then there's the lack of trust in his candidates. I don't know about elsewhere, but in Winnipeg they are not allowed to speak at all-candidates meetings, which is not only an insult to the electorate, but has to undermine their confidence.
Finally, he has a tendency to react petulantly to criticism. He managed to keep this tendency under wraps during the debates, but there is no shortage of examples on the public record: firewall around Alberta, opponents to the Afhanistan policy are traitors, and his "I hate all taxes" comment a few years ago.
The only conclusion I can come to is that those polled considered him to be the best of a very bad lot. Perhaps his falling numbers are a reflection of the realization that othe rparty leaders have some potential
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:42:51 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:42
27 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
If you want a good laugh on the "Bush" reference in the debate. It's really funny.
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2008/10/the-shadowboxing-opposition/
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:19:19 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:19
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
shk
All that negative ad by con back firing ? - National debate showed Dion is not spineless leader as the ad. People were lead to believe by the con negative ad, and now they saw he was not. Leaving people wondering, what else should I not believe words, phrases and speech from the cons. Adding to this the plagirism of Iraq,
I think people may have resented feeling towards con for taking them for a ride. Next few polls will tell if what I say here have merit.
( low expectation, and negative ad is back firing !!! ) - lets wait and see
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:49:19 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:49
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
The Liberals spiked on the 3rd, moving from 26% to 30% after a period of stability. They haven't gone up since then. In order to go up by as much as they did on the 3rd, they would have had to poll significantly higher than 30%.
I wonder if it was one high day on Oct 3rd that cause the lift? If so, they will drop tomorrow.
[updated Sun Oct 05 20:52:33 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 20:52
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Harper will continue to lose momentum, I expect Dion to improve. I don't see Layton as a credible replacement. Either this will be a stalemate or perhaps the Liberals will pull off a minority.
Steve's problem is that you can't build a ship with one plank - I don't care what he releases Tuesday, it could be free everything - won't matter.
The fact is there is a huge credibility gap, he has lied too often - who will believe him. Certainly no one who lost their savings with the Income Trust betrayal. No-one who held trusts, and there are a lot of them with a propensity to vote Conservative - none of them will forget the betrayal nor the betrayers.
Writing $35Billion out of the capital markets with the Trust fiasco in one fiat is a tough act to follow.
Add this to his don't, worry be happy economic platform.
And Jim Flaherty
Why are we not comforted.
.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:17:59 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:17
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suedo
Hi Nik,
I'm ready to weigh in now. Conservatives will squeak a minority! The Bloc will recover. The Liberals will do better than expected. The NDP will gain official opposition next election with the Liberals having a minority or small majority next time. Here's what will happen. The great conservative economist Harper has Canada (partners in the WILLING) (all over Free Trade) but somehow has Canada in a vacuum relative to our economy. The Conservatives get a minority - Canada's economy will tumble within 6 months of his new mandate. The Conservatives and Harper will go the way of Mulroney and the PC's and will be wiped out after their new minority is removed by a non-confidence vote(Round two).
[updated Mon Oct 06 09:16:17 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 09:16
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Liberals who believe in strategic Voting: Go ahead state in this forum you agree with this concept.
Bill Siksay, New Democratic Party
This is an NDP riding where incumbent Bill Siksay won over Liberal Bill Cunningham by 1,244 votes. Incumbents normally have a slight advantage over other candidates. There is however a serious danger that the Conservatives will come up the middle to win in Burnaby - Douglas, so we are recommending you vote for the NDP.
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:12:31 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:12
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Cate
Hello Nik; Do you think that the Conservative platform, when released tomorrow, will have an influence on the polls? In addition, do you have a theory as to why it is taking the Conservatives so long to release it? Cate Ridley
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:19:59 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:19
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Hot Air
Douglas Bell, 05/10/08 at 2:29 PM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/Wdouglasbell0909
In the future, as my fellow blogger Norman Spector pointed out, there are no facts. But, that particular “fact” notwithstanding over the next ten days there's going to be a ton of heated discussion in the press, in boardrooms and around those much prized kitchen tables about the future of the Liberal Party of Canada. And by that I mean Stephane Dion.
He's micromanaged the worst campaign by a major political party since '93 when the PCs tossed themselves into the dust bin of history. (Thank you Kim Campbell with a special shout out to Perrin Beatty). Now having said that bit about the future and facts; the Liberals for the second election in a row are going to finish at best a long way second. And this is a party that doesn't much like taking their hands off the wheel for five minutes let alone five years. So let's say Dion with a little encouragement from caucus decides on election night or shortly thereafter to fall on his sword.
That leaves the way open for what will be essentially a two way race between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, the party's two stars each representing one side of a Janus face. Rae will claim he's the only one who can unite the left (even though the left he's talking about mostly despises him) thereby bringing the party back to the centre. Ignatieff, on the other hand, will claim he's the only one capable of steering the party from the centre right into a post ideological world where the divisions have more to do with geography (rural/urban) than political inclination. In short, if the stars align it will be a final apolcalyptic battle between two guys who've been heading towards this final showdown/rematch since College - and who have grown to be bitter rivals. Where is Don King when you really need him?
That said, maybe Dion brokers a deal to run the country with the NDP and this is all just a bunch of hot air on a Sunday afternoon.
Do you agree?
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:49:58 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:49
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ABC Wisdom will give you this!
BLOC:
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc favour economic plans that benefit Quebec including:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080906/economy_elxn_080906/20080906?&s_name=election2008
raising federal transfer payments for education and social programs
enforce the Kyoto Protocol "without having Quebec pay for Alberta's oil industry or Ontario's automobile industry"
surtax the profits of major oil companies
supporting R & D for Quebec's industries such as aeronautics, textile and furniture
Remeber when you vote against vs for something.
Quebec could become the Official Opposition if the liberal meltdown occurs.
[updated Mon Oct 06 13:38:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 13:38
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suedo
Who should believe Harper? Not one Canadian Nik: Here's why...
On Equalization
The equation contains several components of oil and gas components wherein those resources are considered in provinces where those resources are owned. "revenue source" means any of the following sources from which provincial revenues are or may be derived:
(a) revenues relating to personal income;
(b) revenues relating to business income;
(c) revenues relating to consumption;
(d) revenues derived from property taxes and miscellaneous revenues; and
(e) revenues derived from natural resources.
Now remember the promise - "We will remove non-renewable natural resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada."
This has absolutely nothing to do with the accord and as you can see from the formula - they have not been excluded.
Now on the Fishery
"A conservative Government would support extending custodial management of the continental shelf beyond the 200 mile limit, to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic."
Guess what? Never did that either.
On Military Installations
"A Conservative Government would establish in Newfoundland and Labrador the following new operational requirements for the protection of Canadian Sovereignty and Security:
Station a new Rapid Reaction Army Battalion (approximately 650 regular force personal) for enhanced Atlantic army response at CFB Goose Bay."
Guess What? Never did that either...
And now what we should believe him on Arctic Sovereignty?
This is only a couple of lies to one Province....
Should we continue????
[updated Tue Oct 07 18:09:01 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 18:09
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