The fallout from the French and English debates shows the previous pre-debate 10 point Conservative margin is now four percentage points. Tracking shows incremental movement in favour of the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Dion registered his highest score as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minsiter at 20% although he still trails Stephen Harper by 12 points.
Regionally, the Liberals were more likely to realize gains in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Battleground Ontario remains a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives while the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead in Western Canada.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 3, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,029, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (-1)
- Liberal Party 30 (+2)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (-1)
- Undecided 14% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 20% (+3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- None of them 6% (-2)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 98 (+9)
- Jack Layton 60 (+1)
- Stephane Dion 59 (+7)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (+4)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more alon... more
gretag (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:17
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Con... more
westerner (Alberta) 05 Oct 14:24
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That al... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:53
People are beginning to wonder about a Prime Minister who ignores the financial ... more
HoldenCaulfield (Ontario) 05 Oct 19:00
It seems that the only real work ever done in Ottawa, was while there was majori... more
robini (Ontario) 05 Oct 20:17
Holden people are starting to see that emperor harper has no clothes. ... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 22:45
Comments
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18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
Thanks giving supper table discussions may decide this election. I am suprised it tightened up again. I know some have said liberals poll well on weekends. But never this well. It looks like voter turnout will end up being very important. The inconsistencys with other polls remains a factor, Nik has proved however he has the best results in past. Hold on to your hats its going to be close!!!
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:09:24 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:09
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more along the lines of C:38-40, L21-23, N20-22.
I notice Angus Reid has a new Toronto Star poll which shows the same trend as Nik's numbers. Yet the Star is running with the Harris-Decima poll and saying the Liberals are plummeting and the NDP is rising. The rest of the media is pushing the same narrative. It's confusing that there are such different trends/numbers circulating.
Since the media insists on spinning narratives around the numbers, it is frustrating that they all portray the same subset of numbers and ignore anything that doesn't fit their narrative.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:17:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:17
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Conservative minority which will contnue the unproductive partisanship exhibited in Parlimentary Committees.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:24:34 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:24
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That along with the Liberal surge suggests to me that the Libs are now possibly tied with the Cons,or at least even closer than Nik's numbers. We'll see that over time.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:53:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:53
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Another look at the numbers suggests that the practical Green supporters are now drifting to the Libs as their numbers are down. The more center of NDP supporters will follow next now that Jack is frozen and will start to drift back to 17% or less. The bloc will now focus on the NDP as they don't want to see them with a beachhead there and strategic lib votes will start to move in the coming days. The libs are canvassing those NDP voters and asking for their supporters to help stop Harper and this will resonate as time goes by and Layton looks more and more like the loser he is.
[updated Sun Oct 05 15:05:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 15:05
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
watchingtosee
As the election nears the end and after the debates, the tightening of the polls is expected in light of the strong showing by Dion in the French debate and not a bad performance in the English: The fact that Harper is trying to "act" soft will not preclude the fact that proglonged visual exposure in the debate tends to show people whether they feel they can trust him or not. I think this is what is happening... no science to it and not quantifiable -but a gut feeling.
Layton is good, however again it does come back to credability and if the voters believe they want to trust a party who has never had power. especailly in the upcoming economic times.
There were a few things said during the debates which captured the attention of others I think, Do people believe that the our economy will not be damaged severly if the USA suffers a major economic downturn. After all, Canada trades approximently 90% (verify) of its products with them. I believe this is what Harper has alluded to and that our fundementals were strong.. It sounds errily familar to John McCains redition until he was forced change gears a few hours later.
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:13:05 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:13
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner
True leaders must be practical but at the same time can not spread extreme doom and gloom and cause a panic in the markets. Keeping a stiff upper lip is a good thing in troubled times. Can you imagine our national leaders running around Canada yelling "the sky is falling, run for the hills". That would be the height of irresponsibility.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:09:18 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:09
Foxer
True. The fastest way to create a recession or depression is to insist there's going to be one.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:10:28 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:10
westerner
Unfortunately there is economic doom and gloom being spread by the NDP and Liberals to score points during the election.Harper is trying to calm nervous people but is being castigated for it. Dion and Layton should know better.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:16:09 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:16
Foxer
Dion only cares about getting into power. This is a man who's trying to introduce 'plagiarism' as a serious election issue. He doesn't care at all about doing harm to people.
Layton probably really believes that if he taxes businesses it'll help the situation. He's a little nutty that way.
Once the cpc wins, especially if it wins a majority or close to it, the markets in Canada will improve. Business likes investing where there's stability and there's low taxes.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:20:53 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:20
SireJoe
You've GOT to be kidding me. SOME of our politicians are actually speaking the truth and you are chastising them? Puuuhlease. I'll take a Liberal government that is planning ahead and taking measures to make sure we the people are better off and not bent over waiting for something to happen than the alternative do nothing "All is well! We have STRONG fundamentals!" crap.
I find it incredibly funny how most con supports, on the one hand say that the government has no control over the world economy, and no matter what they do, they wont help or hinder whats coming, yet when the other party makes a point of bringing up what could be coming, you go off the deep end stating they are HOPING for a recession and CREATING one by talking about the concerns of every citizen of Canada.
Pick a side on this, 'cause you can't have it both ways.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:34:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:34
Foxer
None of our politicians are telling the 'truth'. Or they all are depending on how you choose to look at it. They're all 'spinning' it.
The liberal gov't has not planned ahead at all. If they were - they'd never have had the green plan in the first place. What the liberals are proposing is that they promise to COME UP with a plan within 30 days of taking office. Their 'plan' is to hold a bunch of meetings.
The ndp does have a plan - but their plan is to keep taxes up on business and invest that capital in 'kitchen table' issues believing that this will help. THat's very questionable, but it is a plan.
Harper has a plan and in fact has been working it. Remember - he was the first to sound the alarm more than a year ago, saying we are going to have difficult times ahead (challenging and unstable i think he said). He started his plan a year ago and it's had good effect. His plan now is to continue pretty much with the plan he's been working - keep taxes low to encourage business, targeted spending on specific industries and communities to help keep jobs and create new jobs, and encourage people to keep spending to keep economic stimulation strong. Which is exactly why we havent had a recession according to studies so far.
And your 'humour' over the economy makes absolutely no sense. Gov'ts do have very limited control over the national and global economy. That is the truth. They can do some things to help or hinder, but the idea of a 'free' market is that the market controls things. Obviously our challenges in Canada are largely a result of the American situation, which no canadian gov't controls.
However - it's quite obvious that dion has been seriously hoping for an economic down turn. He believes that it can be used to suggest the CPC is somehow ruined the economy. He also is praying for a deficit, tho obviously that's not going to happen. Why else would he lie so consistently suggesting we're 'close' to one? We clearly aren't. But if we were he believes he can use it to suggest the CPC has screwed up.
There's nothing contradictory about those two things. The gov't has less control over the economy than dion suggests - but he believes he can convince people that an economic down turn is somehow the fault of the tories and would clearly love to see the situation worsen to improve his political situation.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:57:04 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:57
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Sire Joe..........Great post. its good to see another new poster here ram the phony western whiners.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:49:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:49
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The Liberals are simply stating that Harper is lying because he won't produce an economic blueprint.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:04:07 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:04
Foxer
Which of course is itself a lie. He has - they just don't want people to think he has or admit it's been working so well. Which is of course very liberal.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:10:57 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:10
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Ah you mean harper is being truthful like he was with the income trusts? I got it now!!!
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:12:57 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:12
Foxer
No - i mean libs are lying like they did about stealing people's money to fund their campaign. Or like dion did when he said he was against the income trust taxes, then voted for it - or like he said he was against carbon taxes and now wants one, or like he said he'd stop abstaining in parliament then continued to do so for a year, or like he said that he didn't support the extension of the afghan mission then voted to extend it. Or how he wanted an election and campaigned all summer on his green plan then was angry when an election came along.
Got it now? :)
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:24:43 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:24
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Give it up the jig is up and Tories are on the run..they screwed up and it will cost them dearly but be a blessing to Canada because Harper will resign in disgrace and humiliation.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:28:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:28
Foxer
and there's no american's near bagdad right? :)
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:42:37 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:42
HoldenCaulfield
You can see right here on this thread what will happen to the Conservatives over the next week as the polls look bad for them. They will begin to lose their minds and when all of that anger (that West wants in Anger) starts to boil over, Harper will not be able to contain the lunatic fringe in his own party.
Not just the members, but the supporters. I saw on the evening news that in Liberal Dr. Carolyn Bennet's riding in Toronto, homes with Liberal Election signs were attack with Graffiti and in at least one case the brake lines on an automobile were cut causing an accident. The Police are investigating this rash of anti Liberal attacks in that area.
I'm not suggesting that the Conservative party arranged something like that, what I am suggesting is that the new Conservative Party (Reform Party with a new name) attracts the lunatic fringe who would do something like this. No discussion, no compromise, just dumbed down anger, and a lack of civility.
Watch the next week or so and mark my word, intolerance will raise it's ugly head this coming week.
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:38:16 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:38
Foxer
Could just as easily be ndp attacking the libs - more their style. :)
Methinks thou dost protest too much :) We're still winning. Maybe if we were losing, but generally you don't go trashing the opposition's stuff when you're ahead.
Case in point - that liberal in the east who got caught trashing CPC signs.
You have to remember - we're winning in every poll, and nik is the only one where it's even remotely close.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:48:03 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:48
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
foxer self denial is not good.....you need to speak the truth man.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:51:21 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:51
Foxer
Well it's hard to argue with such an expert on the subject :)
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:47:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:47
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Holden Great post.
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:24:44 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:24
Funny thing you mention "attracts the lunatic fringe" I linked the Senior Liberal in PEI (executive director) removing signs and destroying CPC property and lying to Elections Canada about the tag lines. a few days ago. Did you miss that?
Probably another "staged" event like in Halton with Garth Turner in his CPAC door to door campaign. He fired the campaign manager after he got caught btw. Rofl....
Want that link too?
Want the link again? Photos and apologies from the senior liberal busted in the photos. Google Liberal "goons" in PEI ....lol.
Keep distracting voters from your party's issues and the Green Shaft Tax Grab where seniors will get "Taxed" as they do in BC already!
Since you support ABC you want a Quebec split and more taxes for Ontario Auto Industry and more tax dollars sent to Quebec. Keep up the good work!
Oh and blame the western Canadians and Americans for your failure on the Liberal Campaign.
Move forward 6 months.....
Rae is Liberal leader after Dion takes new post at McDonalds ...I mean McGill.
Cheers!
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:43:06 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:43
westerner
You couldn't be a Liberal supporter after they promised to eliminate the GST, renegotiate NAFTA and set up a national daycare program. All broken election promises. Liberals deceive during an election.
Some bloggers also deceive by changing their alias frequently, right MBAGS or is it TPQ or is it gohabs??
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:15:54 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:15
HoldenCaulfield
The Liberals did establish a National Daycare program, the Conservatives killed in 2006. I know because I was working at the Provincial and Local level on programs for implementation of this strategy, until Harper killed the program and left working mothers on their own.
That's the problem with the Harper Conservatives, they leave people on their own, Canadian families deserve better.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:47:29 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:47
supper
Why unfortunate? The opposition have put up with 2 years of negative attack ads. The election started with a bird pooping on Dion. Now after all this it is considered unfair that Harper's poor economic showing is being contrasted with Martin's stewardship?
No personal blow is too low for this guy. I feel sorry for his party members that donate to this garbage.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:35:54 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:35
Foxer
Riiiiight. Dion's called him a liar, tried to blow 'plagerism' into a major issue, and the libs ran nothing but attack ads against him during the last 2 campaigns (they ran in our cities. In canada. We're not making this up :) )
And somehow the meltdown in the states is now harper's fault? Give your head a shake. It's sad seeing canadians rooting for economic hardship just to further their own political agenda's.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:50:12 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:50
supper
Plagiarism is a major issue for honest people. Stephen Harper's lack of social spending along with increased military spending mirrors and has actively supported the George Bush world. Is on the record many times that Harper wanted a closer relationship, why deny it now?
So as a member do you feel a little sleazy watching those ads? Maybe like those liberals that are being mimicked (isn't that the excuse)?
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:24:47 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:24
Foxer
Plagiarism is in no way shape or form an issue for anyone who isn't desperate for there to be an issue. It was more of a chance to sneak in a reminder that he supported the war.
The harris one wasn't even plagerism - it was just 'similar', And only two lines. But it tied him to harris in a round about way.
it's cheezy, cheap, scum politics. And it's exactly why people don't trust the libs.
As far as the ads go - the lib ads are as slimy as any.
[updated Mon Oct 06 00:52:50 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 00:52
supper
So do you feel a little sleazy?
[updated Mon Oct 06 01:07:02 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 01:07
Foxer
Watching political ads?
No, not sleazy - a little disappointed because i know all these crap ads from the libs cpc and ndp actually work, which is a bit of a sad testiment to people of all stripes. But that's about it.
Some of it really seems unusually petty. We saw some of that last election (soldiers, in our city, in canada, etc) and we've seen some in this election (plagerism etc ), but really it's all the same crap and there just aren't any political parties that seem above it.
But they do it because it works. I think stephane dion is a little 'extra' disappointing because he pretended he wasn't going to do any of that and that didn't even last 24 hours - but really none of them are impressive.
[updated Mon Oct 06 02:34:42 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 02:34
westerner
Most interesting to now see the NDP American style attack ads turned on the Liberals. This week will get a little dirty as all parties adopt American style attack ads; Liberals especially, they love American style politics
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:28:01 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:28
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
It simply tells me that Layton has given up on the fantasy of becoming PM and now sees the polls turning in favor of the Libs. His numbers will still drop this coming week and they already have in Quebec.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:02:59 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:02
HoldenCaulfield
I think that Palgerism is a major issues for those of us who believe that ethics and integrity are important. I would guess that people who don't put much weight on it , also don't care much about the latter either.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:49:08 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:49
Foxer
Nobody who votes liberal truly believes ethics and integrity are important. If they did - they'd vote ndp or cpc.
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:06:41 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:06
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Or to lie about one that maybe already underway which is my strong suspicion.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:03:14 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:03
Foxer
No lie involved - there's no recession in canada. Even dion doesn't suggest there is. Dion is suggesting that there's going to be in the future.
Amusingly, when harper said we were going to have economic challenges a year ago, dion labeled him an 'alarmist'. Harper's message has stayed the same and still is - it's going to be challenging times but we're in good shape and we will come out the other side in relatively good shape if we don't do something stupid.
Whereas dion has done a real 180 - now claiming that disaster looms and he's going to take firm action! - by holding meetings with premiers he admits he won't listen to much for a month. Wow. That'll solve everything.
Harper plans. Dion just reacts. That's the difference between a leader and someone who's not a leader.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:16:44 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:16
It seems the doom and gloom squads, Libs and NDP are in full rhetoric fluff. Give the polls till the end of the week while the Cons put out a few more planks and then we will see the CPC climb again in the polls.
[updated Sun Oct 05 20:12:09 EDT 2008]