The fallout from the French and English debates shows the previous pre-debate 10 point Conservative margin is now four percentage points. Tracking shows incremental movement in favour of the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Dion registered his highest score as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minsiter at 20% although he still trails Stephen Harper by 12 points.
Regionally, the Liberals were more likely to realize gains in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Battleground Ontario remains a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives while the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead in Western Canada.
Tune in to Goldhawk Live with Dale Goldhawk tonight at 7 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website.
Methodology and Results
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 3, 2008.
Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,029, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative Party 34 (-1)
- Liberal Party 30 (+2)
- NDP 19 (NC)
- BQ 10% (NC)
- Green Party 7% (-1)
- Undecided 14% (-2)
Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,202,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (NC)
- Liberal leader Stephane Dion 20% (+3)
- NDP leader Jack Layton 19% (NC)
- Green Party leader Elizabeth May 4% (NC)
- Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 3% (-1)
- None of them 6% (-2)
- Unsure 16% (-1)
Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
- The most trustworthy leader
- The most competent leader
- The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]
- Stephen Harper 98 (+9)
- Jack Layton 60 (+1)
- Stephane Dion 59 (+7)
- Gilles Duceppe 16 (+4)
- Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
What do you think?
Cheers, NJN
Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.
Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard
Most Read Comments
Highest Rated Comments
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more alon... more
gretag (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:17
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Con... more
westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 05 Oct 14:24
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That al... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 14:53
People are beginning to wonder about a Prime Minister who ignores the financial ... more
HoldenCaulfield (Ontario) 05 Oct 19:00
It seems that the only real work ever done in Ottawa, was while there was majori... more
robini (Ontario) 05 Oct 20:17
Holden people are starting to see that emperor harper has no clothes. ... more
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post) (Ontario) 05 Oct 22:45
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18 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
fortescue
Thanks giving supper table discussions may decide this election. I am suprised it tightened up again. I know some have said liberals poll well on weekends. But never this well. It looks like voter turnout will end up being very important. The inconsistencys with other polls remains a factor, Nik has proved however he has the best results in past. Hold on to your hats its going to be close!!!
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:09:24 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:09
9 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gretag
This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more along the lines of C:38-40, L21-23, N20-22.
I notice Angus Reid has a new Toronto Star poll which shows the same trend as Nik's numbers. Yet the Star is running with the Harris-Decima poll and saying the Liberals are plummeting and the NDP is rising. The rest of the media is pushing the same narrative. It's confusing that there are such different trends/numbers circulating.
Since the media insists on spinning narratives around the numbers, it is frustrating that they all portray the same subset of numbers and ignore anything that doesn't fit their narrative.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:17:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:17
13 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
westerner (suspended)
I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Conservative minority which will contnue the unproductive partisanship exhibited in Parlimentary Committees.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:24:34 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:24
19 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
If you keep bleeding the way you are by next weekend you'll be a liberal supporter....Ha ha
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:38:40 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:38
Foxer
well that is the most likely result at this point, but i don't know that we can say much from this poll. Another day or two and we'll know if the lib numbers are a blip or a trend - the last few weekends have had weird results with nik.
We'll see.
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:09:19 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:09
westerner (suspended)
The G and M Poll of Polls shows quite a different story when 6 polls are averaged. Who to believe?
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:12:48 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:12
Foxer
Well first off you have to understand that not all polls are polling the same thing. Some include 'leaners' - what people intend to vote even if they havne't quite made up their minds for sure. And there's differences in methodology.
But trends up and down should tend to be similar for the various polls. Everything has been polling the libs up so these results are somewhat questionable. But - we'll see. It's possible that this time nik's just not on the money, or it's possible he's on to something and the others just aren't picking it up yet. Time will tell - sooner or later the various polls should be lining up again.
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:48:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:48
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
The G&M all but apologized for their polls in this morning's paper. So you know that they are getting the message.
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:14:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:14
westerner (suspended)
It is not reporting G and M polls! The newspaper is reporting on the results of 6 independent polls including Niks.
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:37:36 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:37
HoldenCaulfield
Yes Westerner it is best to stick with your entrenched positions despite the facts.
As for the Parliamentary Committees, what you really mean is that the Conservatives who do not have a majority in those committees cannot shove everything through. You see what you folks don't get is that you didn't win a majority 2.5 years ago, which means you have to listen to others in the House not just bully them.
Harper and his crew don't get this because they and their hardcore followers don't know how to compromise, it is not in their vocabulary.
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:58:42 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:58
Lex Llewdor
Compromise leads to bad government. Ony majorities can implement unpopular legislation, and good legislation is often unpopular in the short term.
Or even the long term. Look at the GST. That's a great tax - far better than the one it replaced, but everyone hates it, so a minority parliament would never have implemented it.
[updated Sun Oct 05 21:37:12 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 21:37
HoldenCaulfield
Okay Lex, let's review the facts.
First of all if you like the GST, I'm not so sure why your Government cut it by 2 percentage points driving us within a hair of deficit again.
Secondly Minority Governments have gotten lots done in the past. Look at Liberal Lester Pearson's two minority Governments, he forged a new foreign policy for us based on peace keeping, won the Nobel prize, established the Order of Canada, got us a New Flag, set up the Canada Pension Plan, implemented Student Loans and gave us Universal Health Care.
Minority Governments work if reasonable people who are willing work with others lead them.
Minority Government does not work well for the Harper Conservatives because he and his cabinet are bullies and they don't play well in the sandbox.
[updated Sun Oct 05 23:50:28 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 23:50
Taylor Cutforth
You said "facts" without even mentioning any references, so how can we believe what you say other then blindly accepting it at face value?
"First of all if you like the GST, I'm not so sure why your Government cut it by 2 percentage points driving us within a hair of deficit again."
I suppose you wouldn't... The reason they brought it down as it no longer needed to remain as high as it was and that it was a good way to increase consumer spending while returning their money back to them.
Helped nock off some of the cost of buying a home or a car.
"Minority Governments work if reasonable people who are willing work with others lead them."
Agreed, but what have you to say of the actions of all the Liberals in the last session of Parliament?
What have you to say in regards to the Liberal dominated senate?
They went beyond the term counter-productive... anyone who had been watching CPAC over the years could of told you that.
"Minority Government does not work well for the Harper Conservatives because he and his cabinet are bullies and they don't play well in the sandbox."
See, now I know your utterly full of it if you "truly" believe that...
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:07:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:07
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Taylor, shows you are as ignorant of facts as oyur other con supporters. There is no GST on a resale home and almost every develop manages to kick back the GST to the consumer because they don't pay it either.
The GST should have been increased and the income tax rates lowered significantly for the real economic benefits to kick in. That's why the euro countries do so well. VAT is a better tax than income taxes will ever be and almost every economist agrees with this. Next please.
As long as the senate exists to be a voice of second opinion to paliament they will do their job accordingly. Where would fortier and Majorie Le Breton have hung out without a senate to hide them.
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:21:47 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:21
westerner (suspended)
" the GST should have been increased". If so, why did the Liberals make an election promise to reduce it to 0%. Some people voted for Liberals because of this promise and they did not keep their word. Do you think they are liars?
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:18:55 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:18
HoldenCaulfield
Hey Taylor
What would you think of a Government that ignores the vote of the majority of Parliament who voted June 3rd 2008 to allow US War Resisters to remain in Canada. Instead of implementing a program to respect the majority vote, the Conservatives began deporting the US Soldiers and their families.
Is it ok to ignore the will Parliament when it does not suit you. This is an example of the undemocratic behaviour of the Harper Conservatives; just one example of many.
[updated Mon Oct 06 11:33:24 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 11:33
Lex Llewdor
You just proved my point. Pearson's minorities were very good at spending a ton of money to buy votes, because that's really all minority parliaments ever do. Since everyone's constantly vying for power, giving away the most money is the usual tactic.
Everyone behaves selfishly all of the time. Liberal politicians are no different.
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:40:13 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:40
lets raise the bar
It may turn to be far more productive this time around - perhaps this time the minority coalition will have more gumption, and take stands on important issues, instead of letting each issue go out of fear that an election will be called - and perhaps Mr. Harper will not stomp so arrogantly - tantalising his opponents with legislation he knows is hard to swallow.
[updated Sun Oct 05 23:57:16 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 23:57
Taylor Cutforth
People should read this article.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080919.wcogagnon22/BNStory/politics/home
The Maclean's Editors are essentially saying the same thing in their latest issue.
Meanwhile, I've been saying it for well over a year.
Though the MSM still keeps to its commitments to spinning out all sorts of non-factual bs.
Least the person who wrote the article in the link above was smart enough to see through it... what I don't get is why people are wanting to vote for the so-called "Liberals"...
its as if no one wants a government that works.
What the heck is a matter with the electorate?
They should be voting for the Candidates, no the parties.
If they wanted to protest vote, they should vote Libertarian or something.
I still don't feel that there should be many if ANY Liberals left after this since they no longer deserve to be an opposition party... and should make room for some new ones who are actually interested in getting things done, even if it means working with the Conservatives.
All this anti-conservatism is starting to get pretty unfair and discriminatory...
But I won't elaborate on that right now, more than half of you may of already experienced something similar so as to also suggest this.
"The tragedy in the unbalanced presentation of issues in the media is that so many Canadians will hear an issue like this in the wind and will not question the validity of it for themselves.
It is astonishing how many simply parrott the "he scares me" type of rhetoric being presented by left leaning media outlets but cannot explain it themselves when pressed.
Now THATS scary.
Reminds me of the 97 campaign when the liberals paraded around as the champions of health care after cutting health care & education transfer payments to the provinces by 40% between 1995 to 1997.
The media forget to tell us that bit." ~ someone
I've posted this elsewhere, but there is really not much need anymore since so many others are experiencing the same thing first hand...
[updated Mon Oct 06 07:50:05 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 07:50
Taylor Cutforth
Just some other links to compliment the Globe and Mail one, I provided.
http://www.commandnews.com/fpweb/fp.dll/$cpac/htm/cpac/x_dv.htm/_ibyx/daj/_svc/cp_pub/_Id/1184666535/_k/8tDs1qQqSeVprHxc
http://www.conservative.ca/EN/1091/106749
[updated Mon Oct 06 08:21:39 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 08:21
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
How come you aren't publishing a link to the G&M exposee of Harper on the weekend.
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:58:40 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:58
westerner (suspended)
Why don't you publish it MBAGS??
[updated Mon Oct 06 14:20:47 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 14:20
gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That along with the Liberal surge suggests to me that the Libs are now possibly tied with the Cons,or at least even closer than Nik's numbers. We'll see that over time.
[updated Sun Oct 05 14:53:39 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 14:53
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gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)
Another look at the numbers suggests that the practical Green supporters are now drifting to the Libs as their numbers are down. The more center of NDP supporters will follow next now that Jack is frozen and will start to drift back to 17% or less. The bloc will now focus on the NDP as they don't want to see them with a beachhead there and strategic lib votes will start to move in the coming days. The libs are canvassing those NDP voters and asking for their supporters to help stop Harper and this will resonate as time goes by and Layton looks more and more like the loser he is.
[updated Sun Oct 05 15:05:45 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 15:05
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watchingtosee
As the election nears the end and after the debates, the tightening of the polls is expected in light of the strong showing by Dion in the French debate and not a bad performance in the English: The fact that Harper is trying to "act" soft will not preclude the fact that proglonged visual exposure in the debate tends to show people whether they feel they can trust him or not. I think this is what is happening... no science to it and not quantifiable -but a gut feeling.
Layton is good, however again it does come back to credability and if the voters believe they want to trust a party who has never had power. especailly in the upcoming economic times.
There were a few things said during the debates which captured the attention of others I think, Do people believe that the our economy will not be damaged severly if the USA suffers a major economic downturn. After all, Canada trades approximently 90% (verify) of its products with them. I believe this is what Harper has alluded to and that our fundementals were strong.. It sounds errily familar to John McCains redition until he was forced change gears a few hours later.
[updated Sun Oct 05 16:13:05 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 16:13
43 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
DI-380
Hi Nik,
Do you tabulate the results per riding anywhere, to see what the results would be in terms of seats in the House of Commons? I realize the sample size and accuracy would be reduced in terms of popular opinion, but we don't have proportional representation, so the result would be more meaningful to me.
[updated Sun Oct 05 17:22:20 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 17:22
25 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Bud the spud
One thing I don't understand is how Harper rate so high in leadership. If your definition of a leader is the person in charge, then he's definitely in charge of the Conservative party.
A more important question is how a person exercises his or her authority. Here Harper has shown himself to be very weak. He does not seem to be capable of attacting capable people to work with him, for one, and when he does he often loses them. It'stelling how many cabinet ministers are not running again. The numerous adolescent gaffes during the campaign also demonstrate a weakness in recruiting skill. He also does not seem to trust his cabinet; they very seldom have permission to speak on the issues.
Then there's the lack of trust in his candidates. I don't know about elsewhere, but in Winnipeg they are not allowed to speak at all-candidates meetings, which is not only an insult to the electorate, but has to undermine their confidence.
Finally, he has a tendency to react petulantly to criticism. He managed to keep this tendency under wraps during the debates, but there is no shortage of examples on the public record: firewall around Alberta, opponents to the Afhanistan policy are traitors, and his "I hate all taxes" comment a few years ago.
The only conclusion I can come to is that those polled considered him to be the best of a very bad lot. Perhaps his falling numbers are a reflection of the realization that othe rparty leaders have some potential
[updated Sun Oct 05 18:42:51 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 18:42
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If you want a good laugh on the "Bush" reference in the debate. It's really funny.
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2008/10/the-shadowboxing-opposition/
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:19:19 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:19
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
shk
All that negative ad by con back firing ? - National debate showed Dion is not spineless leader as the ad. People were lead to believe by the con negative ad, and now they saw he was not. Leaving people wondering, what else should I not believe words, phrases and speech from the cons. Adding to this the plagirism of Iraq,
I think people may have resented feeling towards con for taking them for a ride. Next few polls will tell if what I say here have merit.
( low expectation, and negative ad is back firing !!! ) - lets wait and see
[updated Sun Oct 05 19:49:19 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 19:49
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
MichaelFox
The Liberals spiked on the 3rd, moving from 26% to 30% after a period of stability. They haven't gone up since then. In order to go up by as much as they did on the 3rd, they would have had to poll significantly higher than 30%.
I wonder if it was one high day on Oct 3rd that cause the lift? If so, they will drop tomorrow.
[updated Sun Oct 05 20:52:33 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 20:52
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Harper will continue to lose momentum, I expect Dion to improve. I don't see Layton as a credible replacement. Either this will be a stalemate or perhaps the Liberals will pull off a minority.
Steve's problem is that you can't build a ship with one plank - I don't care what he releases Tuesday, it could be free everything - won't matter.
The fact is there is a huge credibility gap, he has lied too often - who will believe him. Certainly no one who lost their savings with the Income Trust betrayal. No-one who held trusts, and there are a lot of them with a propensity to vote Conservative - none of them will forget the betrayal nor the betrayers.
Writing $35Billion out of the capital markets with the Trust fiasco in one fiat is a tough act to follow.
Add this to his don't, worry be happy economic platform.
And Jim Flaherty
Why are we not comforted.
.
[updated Sun Oct 05 22:17:59 EDT 2008]
05 Oct 22:17
2 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Hi Nik,
I'm ready to weigh in now. Conservatives will squeak a minority! The Bloc will recover. The Liberals will do better than expected. The NDP will gain official opposition next election with the Liberals having a minority or small majority next time. Here's what will happen. The great conservative economist Harper has Canada (partners in the WILLING) (all over Free Trade) but somehow has Canada in a vacuum relative to our economy. The Conservatives get a minority - Canada's economy will tumble within 6 months of his new mandate. The Conservatives and Harper will go the way of Mulroney and the PC's and will be wiped out after their new minority is removed by a non-confidence vote(Round two).
[updated Mon Oct 06 09:16:17 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 09:16
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Liberals who believe in strategic Voting: Go ahead state in this forum you agree with this concept.
Bill Siksay, New Democratic Party
This is an NDP riding where incumbent Bill Siksay won over Liberal Bill Cunningham by 1,244 votes. Incumbents normally have a slight advantage over other candidates. There is however a serious danger that the Conservatives will come up the middle to win in Burnaby - Douglas, so we are recommending you vote for the NDP.
[updated Mon Oct 06 10:12:31 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 10:12
4 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
Cate
Hello Nik; Do you think that the Conservative platform, when released tomorrow, will have an influence on the polls? In addition, do you have a theory as to why it is taking the Conservatives so long to release it? Cate Ridley
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:19:59 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:19
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Hot Air
Douglas Bell, 05/10/08 at 2:29 PM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/Wdouglasbell0909
In the future, as my fellow blogger Norman Spector pointed out, there are no facts. But, that particular “fact” notwithstanding over the next ten days there's going to be a ton of heated discussion in the press, in boardrooms and around those much prized kitchen tables about the future of the Liberal Party of Canada. And by that I mean Stephane Dion.
He's micromanaged the worst campaign by a major political party since '93 when the PCs tossed themselves into the dust bin of history. (Thank you Kim Campbell with a special shout out to Perrin Beatty). Now having said that bit about the future and facts; the Liberals for the second election in a row are going to finish at best a long way second. And this is a party that doesn't much like taking their hands off the wheel for five minutes let alone five years. So let's say Dion with a little encouragement from caucus decides on election night or shortly thereafter to fall on his sword.
That leaves the way open for what will be essentially a two way race between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, the party's two stars each representing one side of a Janus face. Rae will claim he's the only one who can unite the left (even though the left he's talking about mostly despises him) thereby bringing the party back to the centre. Ignatieff, on the other hand, will claim he's the only one capable of steering the party from the centre right into a post ideological world where the divisions have more to do with geography (rural/urban) than political inclination. In short, if the stars align it will be a final apolcalyptic battle between two guys who've been heading towards this final showdown/rematch since College - and who have grown to be bitter rivals. Where is Don King when you really need him?
That said, maybe Dion brokers a deal to run the country with the NDP and this is all just a bunch of hot air on a Sunday afternoon.
Do you agree?
[updated Mon Oct 06 12:49:58 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 12:49
No replies yet. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
ABC Wisdom will give you this!
BLOC:
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc favour economic plans that benefit Quebec including:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080906/economy_elxn_080906/20080906?&s_name=election2008
raising federal transfer payments for education and social programs
enforce the Kyoto Protocol "without having Quebec pay for Alberta's oil industry or Ontario's automobile industry"
surtax the profits of major oil companies
supporting R & D for Quebec's industries such as aeronautics, textile and furniture
Remeber when you vote against vs for something.
Quebec could become the Official Opposition if the liberal meltdown occurs.
[updated Mon Oct 06 13:38:10 EDT 2008]
06 Oct 13:38
5 replies so far. Join this conversationHide this conversation.
suedo
Who should believe Harper? Not one Canadian Nik: Here's why...
On Equalization
The equation contains several components of oil and gas components wherein those resources are considered in provinces where those resources are owned. "revenue source" means any of the following sources from which provincial revenues are or may be derived:
(a) revenues relating to personal income;
(b) revenues relating to business income;
(c) revenues relating to consumption;
(d) revenues derived from property taxes and miscellaneous revenues; and
(e) revenues derived from natural resources.
Now remember the promise - "We will remove non-renewable natural resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada."
This has absolutely nothing to do with the accord and as you can see from the formula - they have not been excluded.
Now on the Fishery
"A conservative Government would support extending custodial management of the continental shelf beyond the 200 mile limit, to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic."
Guess what? Never did that either.
On Military Installations
"A Conservative Government would establish in Newfoundland and Labrador the following new operational requirements for the protection of Canadian Sovereignty and Security:
Station a new Rapid Reaction Army Battalion (approximately 650 regular force personal) for enhanced Atlantic army response at CFB Goose Bay."
Guess What? Never did that either...
And now what we should believe him on Arctic Sovereignty?
This is only a couple of lies to one Province....
Should we continue????
[updated Tue Oct 07 18:09:01 EDT 2008]
07 Oct 18:09
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