CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

Thanks giving supper table discussions may decide this election. I am suprised it tightened up again. I know some have said liberals poll well on weekends. But never this well. It looks like voter turnout will end up being very important. The inconsistencys with other polls remains a factor, Nik has proved however he has the best results in past. Hold on to your hats its going to be close!!!

[updated Sun Oct 05 14:09:24 EDT 2008]

This is so different than the narrative running in the media, which is more along the lines of C:38-40, L21-23, N20-22.

I notice Angus Reid has a new Toronto Star poll which shows the same trend as Nik's numbers. Yet the Star is running with the Harris-Decima poll and saying the Liberals are plummeting and the NDP is rising. The rest of the media is pushing the same narrative. It's confusing that there are such different trends/numbers circulating.

Since the media insists on spinning narratives around the numbers, it is frustrating that they all portray the same subset of numbers and ignore anything that doesn't fit their narrative.

[updated Sun Oct 05 14:17:45 EDT 2008]

I am staying with my earlier forecast that the result will, in the end, be a Conservative minority which will contnue the unproductive partisanship exhibited in Parlimentary Committees.

[updated Sun Oct 05 14:24:34 EDT 2008]

Harper's personal numbers continue to slip and Dion's are slowly rising. That along with the Liberal surge suggests to me that the Libs are now possibly tied with the Cons,or at least even closer than Nik's numbers. We'll see that over time.

[updated Sun Oct 05 14:53:39 EDT 2008]

Another look at the numbers suggests that the practical Green supporters are now drifting to the Libs as their numbers are down. The more center of NDP supporters will follow next now that Jack is frozen and will start to drift back to 17% or less. The bloc will now focus on the NDP as they don't want to see them with a beachhead there and strategic lib votes will start to move in the coming days. The libs are canvassing those NDP voters and asking for their supporters to help stop Harper and this will resonate as time goes by and Layton looks more and more like the loser he is.

[updated Sun Oct 05 15:05:45 EDT 2008]

As the election nears the end and after the debates, the tightening of the polls is expected in light of the strong showing by Dion in the French debate and not a bad performance in the English: The fact that Harper is trying to "act" soft will not preclude the fact that proglonged visual exposure in the debate tends to show people whether they feel they can trust him or not. I think this is what is happening... no science to it and not quantifiable -but a gut feeling.

Layton is good, however again it does come back to credability and if the voters believe they want to trust a party who has never had power. especailly in the upcoming economic times.

There were a few things said during the debates which captured the attention of others I think, Do people believe that the our economy will not be damaged severly if the USA suffers a major economic downturn. After all, Canada trades approximently 90% (verify) of its products with them. I believe this is what Harper has alluded to and that our fundementals were strong.. It sounds errily familar to John McCains redition until he was forced change gears a few hours later.

[updated Sun Oct 05 16:13:05 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik,
Do you tabulate the results per riding anywhere, to see what the results would be in terms of seats in the House of Commons? I realize the sample size and accuracy would be reduced in terms of popular opinion, but we don't have proportional representation, so the result would be more meaningful to me.

[updated Sun Oct 05 17:22:20 EDT 2008]

One thing I don't understand is how Harper rate so high in leadership. If your definition of a leader is the person in charge, then he's definitely in charge of the Conservative party.
A more important question is how a person exercises his or her authority. Here Harper has shown himself to be very weak. He does not seem to be capable of attacting capable people to work with him, for one, and when he does he often loses them. It'stelling how many cabinet ministers are not running again. The numerous adolescent gaffes during the campaign also demonstrate a weakness in recruiting skill. He also does not seem to trust his cabinet; they very seldom have permission to speak on the issues.
Then there's the lack of trust in his candidates. I don't know about elsewhere, but in Winnipeg they are not allowed to speak at all-candidates meetings, which is not only an insult to the electorate, but has to undermine their confidence.
Finally, he has a tendency to react petulantly to criticism. He managed to keep this tendency under wraps during the debates, but there is no shortage of examples on the public record: firewall around Alberta, opponents to the Afhanistan policy are traitors, and his "I hate all taxes" comment a few years ago.
The only conclusion I can come to is that those polled considered him to be the best of a very bad lot. Perhaps his falling numbers are a reflection of the realization that othe rparty leaders have some potential

[updated Sun Oct 05 18:42:51 EDT 2008]

If you want a good laugh on the "Bush" reference in the debate. It's really funny.
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2008/10/the-shadowboxing-opposition/

[updated Sun Oct 05 19:19:19 EDT 2008]

All that negative ad by con back firing ? - National debate showed Dion is not spineless leader as the ad. People were lead to believe by the con negative ad, and now they saw he was not. Leaving people wondering, what else should I not believe words, phrases and speech from the cons. Adding to this the plagirism of Iraq,

I think people may have resented feeling towards con for taking them for a ride. Next few polls will tell if what I say here have merit.

( low expectation, and negative ad is back firing !!! ) - lets wait and see

[updated Sun Oct 05 19:49:19 EDT 2008]

The Liberals spiked on the 3rd, moving from 26% to 30% after a period of stability. They haven't gone up since then. In order to go up by as much as they did on the 3rd, they would have had to poll significantly higher than 30%.

I wonder if it was one high day on Oct 3rd that cause the lift? If so, they will drop tomorrow.

[updated Sun Oct 05 20:52:33 EDT 2008]

Harper will continue to lose momentum, I expect Dion to improve. I don't see Layton as a credible replacement. Either this will be a stalemate or perhaps the Liberals will pull off a minority.

Steve's problem is that you can't build a ship with one plank - I don't care what he releases Tuesday, it could be free everything - won't matter.

The fact is there is a huge credibility gap, he has lied too often - who will believe him. Certainly no one who lost their savings with the Income Trust betrayal. No-one who held trusts, and there are a lot of them with a propensity to vote Conservative - none of them will forget the betrayal nor the betrayers.

Writing $35Billion out of the capital markets with the Trust fiasco in one fiat is a tough act to follow.

Add this to his don't, worry be happy economic platform.

And Jim Flaherty

Why are we not comforted.

.

[updated Sun Oct 05 22:17:59 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik,
I'm ready to weigh in now. Conservatives will squeak a minority! The Bloc will recover. The Liberals will do better than expected. The NDP will gain official opposition next election with the Liberals having a minority or small majority next time. Here's what will happen. The great conservative economist Harper has Canada (partners in the WILLING) (all over Free Trade) but somehow has Canada in a vacuum relative to our economy. The Conservatives get a minority - Canada's economy will tumble within 6 months of his new mandate. The Conservatives and Harper will go the way of Mulroney and the PC's and will be wiped out after their new minority is removed by a non-confidence vote(Round two).

[updated Mon Oct 06 09:16:17 EDT 2008]

Liberals who believe in strategic Voting: Go ahead state in this forum you agree with this concept.

Bill Siksay, New Democratic Party

This is an NDP riding where incumbent Bill Siksay won over Liberal Bill Cunningham by 1,244 votes. Incumbents normally have a slight advantage over other candidates. There is however a serious danger that the Conservatives will come up the middle to win in Burnaby - Douglas, so we are recommending you vote for the NDP.

[updated Mon Oct 06 10:12:31 EDT 2008]

Hello Nik; Do you think that the Conservative platform, when released tomorrow, will have an influence on the polls? In addition, do you have a theory as to why it is taking the Conservatives so long to release it? Cate Ridley

[updated Mon Oct 06 12:19:59 EDT 2008]

Hot Air

Douglas Bell, 05/10/08 at 2:29 PM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/Wdouglasbell0909

In the future, as my fellow blogger Norman Spector pointed out, there are no facts. But, that particular “fact” notwithstanding over the next ten days there's going to be a ton of heated discussion in the press, in boardrooms and around those much prized kitchen tables about the future of the Liberal Party of Canada. And by that I mean Stephane Dion.

He's micromanaged the worst campaign by a major political party since '93 when the PCs tossed themselves into the dust bin of history. (Thank you Kim Campbell with a special shout out to Perrin Beatty). Now having said that bit about the future and facts; the Liberals for the second election in a row are going to finish at best a long way second. And this is a party that doesn't much like taking their hands off the wheel for five minutes let alone five years. So let's say Dion with a little encouragement from caucus decides on election night or shortly thereafter to fall on his sword.

That leaves the way open for what will be essentially a two way race between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, the party's two stars each representing one side of a Janus face. Rae will claim he's the only one who can unite the left (even though the left he's talking about mostly despises him) thereby bringing the party back to the centre. Ignatieff, on the other hand, will claim he's the only one capable of steering the party from the centre right into a post ideological world where the divisions have more to do with geography (rural/urban) than political inclination. In short, if the stars align it will be a final apolcalyptic battle between two guys who've been heading towards this final showdown/rematch since College - and who have grown to be bitter rivals. Where is Don King when you really need him?

That said, maybe Dion brokers a deal to run the country with the NDP and this is all just a bunch of hot air on a Sunday afternoon.

Do you agree?

[updated Mon Oct 06 12:49:58 EDT 2008]

ABC Wisdom will give you this!

BLOC:
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc favour economic plans that benefit Quebec including:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080906/economy_elxn_080906/20080906?&s_name=election2008

raising federal transfer payments for education and social programs
enforce the Kyoto Protocol "without having Quebec pay for Alberta's oil industry or Ontario's automobile industry"
surtax the profits of major oil companies
supporting R & D for Quebec's industries such as aeronautics, textile and furniture

Remeber when you vote against vs for something.

Quebec could become the Official Opposition if the liberal meltdown occurs.

[updated Mon Oct 06 13:38:10 EDT 2008]

Who should believe Harper? Not one Canadian Nik: Here's why...

On Equalization

The equation contains several components of oil and gas components wherein those resources are considered in provinces where those resources are owned. "revenue source" means any of the following sources from which provincial revenues are or may be derived:

(a) revenues relating to personal income;

(b) revenues relating to business income;

(c) revenues relating to consumption;

(d) revenues derived from property taxes and miscellaneous revenues; and

(e) revenues derived from natural resources.

Now remember the promise - "We will remove non-renewable natural resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada."

This has absolutely nothing to do with the accord and as you can see from the formula - they have not been excluded.

Now on the Fishery

"A conservative Government would support extending custodial management of the continental shelf beyond the 200 mile limit, to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic."

Guess what? Never did that either.

On Military Installations

"A Conservative Government would establish in Newfoundland and Labrador the following new operational requirements for the protection of Canadian Sovereignty and Security:

Station a new Rapid Reaction Army Battalion (approximately 650 regular force personal) for enhanced Atlantic army response at CFB Goose Bay."

Guess What? Never did that either...

And now what we should believe him on Arctic Sovereignty?

This is only a couple of lies to one Province....

Should we continue????

[updated Tue Oct 07 18:09:01 EDT 2008]