CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2)

OK. Now I get it. This was after the French debate, but before the English one. Unfortunate timing, especially since Friday night's polling results (reflecting Thursday night's English debate) won't be added in until Saturday, and that's the weekend when the CPC always takes a nose-dive.

So it's Tuesday or so until we see some reality of the two (not one) debates reflected in the charts, Nick?

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:09:29 EDT 2008]

It will be interesting to see tomorrows poll results. Dion will lose some to May and Layton and Harper will grab a few points from the undecided. I'll bet the farm.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:18:36 EDT 2008]

The liberal approach is now coming into focus and the numbers are starting to reflect the sound campaign Dion and his team are having. Their numbers are moving at the right time towards a stron finish which is why Harper announced he would finally show us to the land of broken promises next Tuesday when he introduces his platform. Any bets there will will be another whack of tax reductions he was hoping not to have to deliver on.

The five day results show Liberal movement in Quebec and that's before the debate there. Their Ontario numbers should be more solid in the next five days as well after the debate last night and the hit to Harper's credibility over the plagarism scandal.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:27:27 EDT 2008]

Can someone explain to me the margin of error. I always hear when something is within the margin of error that they consider it a statistical tie.

With a margin of error of 3.1% for this poll, doesn't that mean the Conservatives could be at 32% and the Liberals at 33% putting the Liberals in the lead. Or could you not look at it like the Conservatives are at 38% with the Liberals at 27% and the Conservatives could be on their way to a majority.

Signed,

Buzzled in Ottawa

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:28:17 EDT 2008]

Pretty interesting numbers. It's amazing that the latest Harris-Decima poll for the same period shows the numbers to be:

Conservative: 37
Liberal: 24
NDP: 18
Green: 12
Bloc: 9

Something doesn't seem right between these 2 polls.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:29:34 EDT 2008]

Expect the rolling averages will place the Conservatives with more than a 5 point spread by mid week. However, it would continue to appear that we are headed for a Conservative minority government.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:40:19 EDT 2008]

Wow, those swings are a little too dramatic for me to take really seriously, the french debate was bad for Harper so I expected some reprecussions.

In the English debate, Dion was hurt by Layton and Harper so I expect the numbers to move closer to what they were.

I would expect Harper to spend some time in Quebec restablishing himself, he'll never get fully back to his pre culture/youth crime numbers but he will regain a big part of what he had.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:54:29 EDT 2008]

Today's Nanos Poll ~ Whahoo

Dion did IT: CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2)

I don't want to say I told you so, (hee hee) but the boy's done good and Steve's no doubt rueing the day he authorized his ever so tiresome not-a-leader shtick ~ Nowhere to hide Fatboy - Tubby lowered expectations and Stephane has handed Steve his head back

Post Debate: The momo has shifted, good for you Stephane, god bless you - lets hope he can keep it going - fingers crossed

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/101

His personal index up 40 points in one day ~ Stephane Dion 71 ( 40) !!!!!!! Most Trustworthy. Best Vision

Booyeah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[updated Fri Oct 03 15:22:27 EDT 2008]

Hi Nik, I am guessing you are a little premature in your conjecture as only the French language debates have been factored into the equation, and even those not fully. Dion did quite well in the French debate, considerably less well in the English joust.

That being said, Mr. Harper underperformed in both, and I would not be surprised to see the race tighten up; more because of a drop in Conservative support than a big gain in Liberal support.

I'll try my hand at prognostication and predict that by Monday (Sunday nights numbers counted) when all of the fallout from the debates have percolated through the roll, that we will see the Conservatives around 33%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP around 21%. The greens will get a bump to 11 or 12 and the rest go to Mr. Duceppe

[updated Fri Oct 03 15:29:40 EDT 2008]

My debate thoughts:

Let me preface this by saying that candidates that constantly interrupt others in a debate of this format immediately look bad, in my eyes.

Poor performers:
Jack Layton - Interrupted others too frequently, and tried to be too cute. His "are you hiding it under your sweater" comment was somewhat funny - the first time. Then he used it again. Weak. He was unable to get through a sentence without saying "Bush" or "Exxon". Does he know that Exxon isn't a Canadian company? He wants to convince Canadians that the corporate world in Canada consists of big banks and oil companies. He doesn't seem to realize that they create jobs. He scored a few points in critizing Dion, but other than that I think he just came off as amatuerish.

Elizabeth May - Is this woman capable of letting anyone else speak without interrupting? It was frustrating to listen to her ask Harper a question, and then talk over him as he tried to answer. She needs to stop YELLING. Her shrieking is incredibily aggravating. She came off as childish and unpolished, and I think she made a fool of herself.

Duceppe - He always comes off as intelligent and makes his points well, even in the English debates. He did it again. Perhaps it's easy because he doesn't have to balance his comments - he can just campaign for Quebec. Like May, it really bothered me that he would ask a question, and then talk over the other candidates during their time.

The better performers:
Dion - I think he did a good job of sounding sincere, and being Prime Ministerial. When he pointed out that he was being interrupted, and that he respected the time of others, he scored points. Harper should have made the same point. He did well perhaps because the expectations are so low.

Harper - Like Dion, looked Prime Ministerial. He sat there and took it while the other 4 candidates went after him. He really should have called attention to the fact that they would not shut up during his time. Especially Elizabeth May. There were times when he could have made his point better, and he needs to improve on his body language. I don't know why he agreed to this format - he's better standing at a podium. He held his own despite it all, and prevented the other 4 from knocking him off point.

Overall, Harper and Dion were winners. Duceppe did well enough to consolidate his support. I think Layton and May will see support drift away from them going forward.

[updated Fri Oct 03 17:24:31 EDT 2008]

Election Promises to date Liberal Party
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/election-2008/story.html?id=804939
Week 2:

• $530-million over four years: funding for arts and culture.
• $80-million over four years: safer communities.
• $45-million over four years: for a gun violence and gang prevention fund.
• $1.2-billion over four years: package for agriculture and farmers.
• $70-billion over 10 years (includes $33-billion over four years already earmarked by Conservative government): for infrastructure and transit programs.
• $482-million annually: create a Guaranteed Family Supplement.
• $1.25-billion annually: create 165,000 child-care spaces.
• $1.2-billion over four years: cost for reform of post-secondary education.
• $420-million: to increase the number of doctors and nurses.
• $900-million over four years: for a program to help people pay for medications for catastrophic illnesses.
• $250-million over four years: to combat the pine beetle infestation in British Columbia.
• $250-million over four years: for a green fisheries and transportation fund and to retire some fishing licences.

Week 1:

• $6-million annually: reinstate the court challenges program, essentially cancelled in September 2006.

• $2.8-billion: create a universal child tax benefit worth $350 per child per year in addition to existing benefits for children.

• $50-million over four years: increase the number of food inspectors, conduct a food safety review and hold a public inquiry on the August tainted meat recall.

• $575-million over four years: help consumers retrofit their homes and make low-income housing more environmentally friendly.

• $800-million over four years: improve the immigration system, language training and job mentoring for new immigrants.

[updated Fri Oct 03 20:05:30 EDT 2008]

In both the English and the French debates, Dion's comments were measured. He was not shrill and maintained a sense of decorum that was "prime ministerial". He did not back down and most importantly he was constructive and positive. Although his English will never allow him to pass for a Torontonian, (which is, perhaps, a good thing) his arguments remained cogent and understandable. Most importantly he called Harper over and over on his "lies" (as Dion characterized them). He called Harper on his distortions and over-simplifications often and garnered the support of the other leaders in doing it. I believe, many watchers will have perceived that Harper has been the practioner of "the big lie" and ascribes to the cynical belief that if one repeats the same untruth often enough and loudly enough, it will be believed.

Although Dion may not have "won" the debate in the sense that there was some sort of "knockout punch", nevertheless he was able to convey that he above all others in the debate, especially Harper, offered a concrete program for the future. As far as past performance is concerned Harper knew that the headlines spoke very loudly and that what they were saying was not favourable to him so he wisely tried to direct attention to the negative headlines concerning the credit crunch and pointed out that we had done things differently in Canada. Unfortunately the other debaters landed some very heavy body blows with respect to the headlines about job losses in the manufacturing sector and the Conservatives contribution to those losses through misguided policies that have driven up the Canadian dollar and the imprudent remarks of Harpers finance minister to the effect that Ontario was not a good place to invest.

Those remarks, I believe will haunt the Conservatives because they betray a callous and uncaring attitude. That impression I believe was perhaps hammered home not by anything any of the leaders said in the debate, but rather by a nameless camera man who gave us a long lingering view of Harpers face as Elizabeth May recounted some of the extreme suffering she has observed arising out of the recent heavy losses of manufacturing jobs in Canada. Harper maintained a bored and fixed grin that literally screamed, "I don't really give a shit about this Elizabeth so can we please get on with it." He looked like the cat who swallowed the canary and I'm sure that anyone who was worried about their job (or had already lost one) wouldn't have failed to notice. It was that same distant veiled look the HR people get when they announce the layoffs and hand out the pink slips and I think people will recognize it.

Although no knockout punches were landed both the English and the French debate will mean many people are going to being re-examining some of their assumptions and especially some of Harpers glib oversimplifications and distortions. I think over the next few days we'll see a weakening of his support in Quebec as a result of a similar dynamic occurring there after the Quebec debate in which Dion clearly shone and in Ontario as people try to reconcile the dissonance between the headlines and debate visuals, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, Harpers hollow sounding claims about the health of the Canadian economy and his fitness to serve as a compassionate repository for people's trust when actions are required to protect their future well-being.

Look for Dion's numbers to begin to climb toward election day.

[updated Fri Oct 03 20:09:46 EDT 2008]

Harper's leadership and trust numbers are falling faster than the water I just saw going over Niagara falls. I wonder how low they will go now that he failed miserably in the debates and another plagarised speech has just been brought out by the Liberals.

Of equal interest are the numbers for Layton going forward. He was very shrill and overbearing last night and people noticed that. I believe his numbers will sink back to around 16-17% and a seat count of under 30.

[updated Fri Oct 03 21:31:20 EDT 2008]

Liberals caught breaking the Law, charges are pending?

I am not making this up. OOPS someone is going to lose their job ....

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/index.cfm?sid=177334&sc=659

Liberal official apologizes for removing political signs put up by Conservatives

WAYNE THIBODEAU
The Guardian

Mark O’Halloran, executive director of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island, is seen getting back into his car after removing campaign signs belonging to the Conservatives.

The executive director of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island is apologizing after he was caught on camera removing political signs put in place by local Conservatives.
Patrick Ross, a Conservative campaign worker, photographed Mark O’Halloran removing the lawn signs less than five hours after they were put up.
Those lawn signs read: “Say no to the Dion tax!” The signs were strategically placed below Liberal billboards throughout the capital city.

O’Halloran’s back seat, filled with Conservative lawn signs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The signs were later returned to the Conservatives, some of which were damaged as shown.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Photos provided to The Guardian show a close-up of the back seat of O’Halloran’s car, which was stacked to the roof with lawn signs, many of which had their stakes snapped in two.
Mary Lynn Kane, a spokeswoman for Charlottetown Liberal Shawn Murphy, described it as a miscommunication and added the Conservatives are making a mountain out of a molehill.
“Nobody knew where they were from because there did not appear to be any authorized official agent. A call was made to Elections Canada and Elections Canada told them to take them down,” Kane said, in an interview.
“I haven’t seen it but I guess the ‘authorized by’ is minuscule.”
O’Halloran could not be reached for comment.
Kane said he would not be taking calls from the media but added that the executive director of the Liberal party did apologize to the Conservatives.
Charlottetown Conservative Tom DeBlois said news that his signs were being “vandalized by representatives of the Shawn Murphy” campaign is disappointing.
“I understand that emotions can run high during a campaign but this type of behaviour is disappointing and shows just how sensitive my opponent’s campaign is about the Dion carbon tax,” said DeBlois.
“I hope that this will be the end of such antics because the people of Charlottetown deserve better.”
Charlottetown Liberal Shawn Murphy said the signs should not have been taken down but he stopped short of apologizing for the actions of the executive director.
“If anyone was taking down signs that were put there by another party, then they should not have been and they certainly weren’t doing so with my authorization or blessing and it’s unfortunate,” said Murphy.
Dana Doiron, a spokesman for Elections Canada, admits an official from Elections Canada in Ottawa did tell the Liberals to take down the sign — something that should not have happened.
He said Elections Canada has apologized.
If an illegal sign is in place, a complaint needs to be launched with the Commissioner of Elections and it is the commissioner who decides if the sign needs to be removed — not Elections Canada.
“The error was in making a judgment remotely. It’s not our business.”

[updated Fri Oct 03 23:44:16 EDT 2008]

How come theses numbers add up to more than 100%?
I sure do want your poll to be correct, but something seems weird.
KLK

[updated Sat Oct 04 09:03:43 EDT 2008]

The latest seat projections dated Oct 4th from Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. It takes into account all of the most recent national polls and the riding by riding analyst of each to come up an aggregate seat projection. Apologies but cannot get the table to post correctly.

CPC Lib NDP Bloc Grn INP

Atlantic 8 21 3 - - -
Quebec 11 14 1 48 - 1
Ontario 57 34 15 - - -
Prairies 22 5 4 - - -
Alberta 28 - - - - -
BC 27 2 7 - - -

Total 153 76 30 48 0 1
I personally think that both the numbers in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are low and there are a few very close ridings in rural Ontario and Quebec that are now leaning Lib / Bloc but could swing Tory so a majority is still very much in the offing. It seems that the losses in Quebec are being made up and more in ON and BC.

[updated Sat Oct 04 12:23:55 EDT 2008]

I think that Dion by showing that the Conservative's ad ( for the last 18 months) were wrong improves his position.

[updated Sat Oct 04 13:09:35 EDT 2008]