Thursday, April 24, 2014 - (47109 comments)

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2)

236 comments Latest by sprint20092010 (Suspended)

In politics it is rarely the knock-out punch but an accumulation of factors. The research suggests that although there was no clear winner in the leaders debate Stephane Dion was able to exceed expectations for a number of voters. As a result, his personal impressions have improved, as has support for the Liberals. However, we will need to see if this is a trend or a short term improvement. The CPAC- Nanos tracking has shown an incremental slide in the number of Canadians who would pick Stephen Harper as the leader who would make the best PM. With last night being the first full night of tracking in Quebec following the French language debate, the Liberal numbers are picking up - not enough to challenge to the BQ but the Grit numbers are improving.

Many times managing expectations is the key to political success. My sense is that although Dion did not necessarily win the debate, his performance did exceed expectations driven by months and months of negative advertising from the Tories. Add together the puffin, the veteran’s father being attacked, Gerry Ritz, Lee Richardson, Harper asking for a stronger mandate, the Iraq speech and a Dion getting through the debates without major gaffe and we get numbers very similar to the last election - Conservatives 35, Liberal 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, Green 9. The factors onto themselves are not ground shattering. However, together they may be reshaping the campaign and the perceptions of Canadians.

Looking at these numbers, expect a new intensity of attacks from all sides. For the Tories the French debates have not vaulted them into a position to make a major breakthrough in Quebec. From a research perspective, I will focus on closely watching the numbers outside of Quebec to see how the debate reshapes the Conservative drive for a majority.

Dion, personally, had a good day yesterday moving into second place on the CPAC-Nanos leadership index, and is now trailing Stephen Harper by only eight points. The next few days will be important to see if Harper’s numbers bounce back from the Iraq speech issue or if this is the start of some momentum for Dion and the Liberals coming out of the debates.

Tune in to Prime Time Politics with Peter Van Dusen tonight at 8 pm (EST) on CPAC for a discussion of our latest polling results. For more detailed information on the methodology and the statistical results visit the Nanos Research website at www.nanosresearch.com.

Methodology and Results A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 for 1,200 random interviews.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on October 1, 2008.

Question: If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)

Committed Voters - Canada (N=1,006, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative Party 35 (-2)
  • Liberal Party 30 (+4)
  • NDP 18 (-1)
  • BQ 10% (NC)
  • Green Party 9% (+1)
  • Undecided 16% (+3)

Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate] (N=1,200,MoE ± 2.8%, 19 times out of 20)

  • Conservative leader Stephen Harper 32% (-1)
  • Liberal leader Stephane Dion 18% (+3)
  • NDP leader Jack Layton 17% (-1)
  • Green Party leader Elizabeth May 5% (NC)
  • Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe 5% (NC)
  • None of them 8% (NC)
  • Unsure 17% (+1)

Question: Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:

  • The most trustworthy leader
  • The most competent leader
  • The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

[Leadership Index Score - Daily roll-up of all three measures]

  • Stephen Harper 79 (-16)
  • Stephane Dion 71 (+40)
  • Jack Layton 48 (-12)
  • Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
  • Gilles Duceppe 11 (-3)

What do you think?

Cheers, NJN

Remember to rate the views of others - to allow us to recognize the opinion leaders in our national conversation.

Individuals with the top ratings make it to Nik’s Leaderboard

Reply to Topic

Most Read Comments

Highest Rated Comments

Pretty interesting numbers. It's amazing that the latest Harris-Decima poll for ... more

Darryl (Ontario) 03 Oct 14:29

OK. Now I get it. This was after the French debate, but before the English one... more

sorenson2743 (Ontario) 03 Oct 14:09

Expect the rolling averages will place the Conservatives with more than a 5 poi... more

westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 03 Oct 14:40

Various polls seemed quite close during the first two weeks of the campaign. Now... more

westerner (suspended) (Alberta) 03 Oct 14:45

The EKOS and Decima polls basically went in exactly the opposie direction from t... more

Lex Llewdor (British Columbia) 03 Oct 15:04

Did you used cold water Tide for that spin cycle? Let's keep making statement... more

Informed1 (suspended) (Ontario) 03 Oct 15:52

Comments

sorenson2743

OK. Now I get it. This was after the French debate, but before the English one. Unfortunate timing, especially since Friday night's polling results (reflecting Thursday night's English debate) won't be added in until Saturday, and that's the weekend when the CPC always takes a nose-dive.

So it's Tuesday or so until we see some reality of the two (not one) debates reflected in the charts, Nick?

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:09:29 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:09

17 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Mike Stokes

It will be interesting to see tomorrows poll results. Dion will lose some to May and Layton and Harper will grab a few points from the undecided. I'll bet the farm.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:18:36 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:18

7 replies so far. Join this conversation.

gohabs

The liberal approach is now coming into focus and the numbers are starting to reflect the sound campaign Dion and his team are having. Their numbers are moving at the right time towards a stron finish which is why Harper announced he would finally show us to the land of broken promises next Tuesday when he introduces his platform. Any bets there will will be another whack of tax reductions he was hoping not to have to deliver on.

The five day results show Liberal movement in Quebec and that's before the debate there. Their Ontario numbers should be more solid in the next five days as well after the debate last night and the hit to Harper's credibility over the plagarism scandal.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:27:27 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:27

9 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Buzzled_in_Ottawa

Can someone explain to me the margin of error. I always hear when something is within the margin of error that they consider it a statistical tie.

With a margin of error of 3.1% for this poll, doesn't that mean the Conservatives could be at 32% and the Liberals at 33% putting the Liberals in the lead. Or could you not look at it like the Conservatives are at 38% with the Liberals at 27% and the Conservatives could be on their way to a majority.

Signed,

Buzzled in Ottawa

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:28:17 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:28

14 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Darryl

Pretty interesting numbers. It's amazing that the latest Harris-Decima poll for the same period shows the numbers to be:

Conservative: 37
Liberal: 24
NDP: 18
Green: 12
Bloc: 9

Something doesn't seem right between these 2 polls.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:29:34 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:29

9 replies so far. Join this conversation.

westerner (suspended)

Expect the rolling averages will place the Conservatives with more than a 5 point spread by mid week. However, it would continue to appear that we are headed for a Conservative minority government.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:40:19 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:40

14 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Regina Beach Boy

Wow, those swings are a little too dramatic for me to take really seriously, the french debate was bad for Harper so I expected some reprecussions.

In the English debate, Dion was hurt by Layton and Harper so I expect the numbers to move closer to what they were.

I would expect Harper to spend some time in Quebec restablishing himself, he'll never get fully back to his pre culture/youth crime numbers but he will regain a big part of what he had.

[updated Fri Oct 03 14:54:29 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 14:54

4 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Savetemp_0_thumb John B

Today's Nanos Poll ~ Whahoo

Dion did IT: CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2)

I don't want to say I told you so, (hee hee) but the boy's done good and Steve's no doubt rueing the day he authorized his ever so tiresome not-a-leader shtick ~ Nowhere to hide Fatboy - Tubby lowered expectations and Stephane has handed Steve his head back

Post Debate: The momo has shifted, good for you Stephane, god bless you - lets hope he can keep it going - fingers crossed

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/101

His personal index up 40 points in one day ~ Stephane Dion 71 ( 40) !!!!!!! Most Trustworthy. Best Vision

Booyeah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[updated Fri Oct 03 15:22:27 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 15:22

57 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Non-aligned in Toronto

Hi Nik, I am guessing you are a little premature in your conjecture as only the French language debates have been factored into the equation, and even those not fully. Dion did quite well in the French debate, considerably less well in the English joust.

That being said, Mr. Harper underperformed in both, and I would not be surprised to see the race tighten up; more because of a drop in Conservative support than a big gain in Liberal support.

I'll try my hand at prognostication and predict that by Monday (Sunday nights numbers counted) when all of the fallout from the debates have percolated through the roll, that we will see the Conservatives around 33%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP around 21%. The greens will get a bump to 11 or 12 and the rest go to Mr. Duceppe

[updated Fri Oct 03 15:29:40 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 15:29

11 replies so far. Join this conversation.

MichaelFox

My debate thoughts:

Let me preface this by saying that candidates that constantly interrupt others in a debate of this format immediately look bad, in my eyes.

Poor performers:
Jack Layton - Interrupted others too frequently, and tried to be too cute. His "are you hiding it under your sweater" comment was somewhat funny - the first time. Then he used it again. Weak. He was unable to get through a sentence without saying "Bush" or "Exxon". Does he know that Exxon isn't a Canadian company? He wants to convince Canadians that the corporate world in Canada consists of big banks and oil companies. He doesn't seem to realize that they create jobs. He scored a few points in critizing Dion, but other than that I think he just came off as amatuerish.

Elizabeth May - Is this woman capable of letting anyone else speak without interrupting? It was frustrating to listen to her ask Harper a question, and then talk over him as he tried to answer. She needs to stop YELLING. Her shrieking is incredibily aggravating. She came off as childish and unpolished, and I think she made a fool of herself.

Duceppe - He always comes off as intelligent and makes his points well, even in the English debates. He did it again. Perhaps it's easy because he doesn't have to balance his comments - he can just campaign for Quebec. Like May, it really bothered me that he would ask a question, and then talk over the other candidates during their time.

The better performers:
Dion - I think he did a good job of sounding sincere, and being Prime Ministerial. When he pointed out that he was being interrupted, and that he respected the time of others, he scored points. Harper should have made the same point. He did well perhaps because the expectations are so low.

Harper - Like Dion, looked Prime Ministerial. He sat there and took it while the other 4 candidates went after him. He really should have called attention to the fact that they would not shut up during his time. Especially Elizabeth May. There were times when he could have made his point better, and he needs to improve on his body language. I don't know why he agreed to this format - he's better standing at a podium. He held his own despite it all, and prevented the other 4 from knocking him off point.

Overall, Harper and Dion were winners. Duceppe did well enough to consolidate his support. I think Layton and May will see support drift away from them going forward.

[updated Fri Oct 03 17:24:31 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 17:24

9 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Rod_thumb Informed1 (suspended)

Election Promises to date Liberal Party
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/election-2008/story.html?id=804939
Week 2:

• $530-million over four years: funding for arts and culture.
• $80-million over four years: safer communities.
• $45-million over four years: for a gun violence and gang prevention fund.
• $1.2-billion over four years: package for agriculture and farmers.
• $70-billion over 10 years (includes $33-billion over four years already earmarked by Conservative government): for infrastructure and transit programs.
• $482-million annually: create a Guaranteed Family Supplement.
• $1.25-billion annually: create 165,000 child-care spaces.
• $1.2-billion over four years: cost for reform of post-secondary education.
• $420-million: to increase the number of doctors and nurses.
• $900-million over four years: for a program to help people pay for medications for catastrophic illnesses.
• $250-million over four years: to combat the pine beetle infestation in British Columbia.
• $250-million over four years: for a green fisheries and transportation fund and to retire some fishing licences.

Week 1:

• $6-million annually: reinstate the court challenges program, essentially cancelled in September 2006.

• $2.8-billion: create a universal child tax benefit worth $350 per child per year in addition to existing benefits for children.

• $50-million over four years: increase the number of food inspectors, conduct a food safety review and hold a public inquiry on the August tainted meat recall.

• $575-million over four years: help consumers retrofit their homes and make low-income housing more environmentally friendly.

• $800-million over four years: improve the immigration system, language training and job mentoring for new immigrants.

[updated Fri Oct 03 20:05:30 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 20:05

10 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Coryphaeus

In both the English and the French debates, Dion's comments were measured. He was not shrill and maintained a sense of decorum that was "prime ministerial". He did not back down and most importantly he was constructive and positive. Although his English will never allow him to pass for a Torontonian, (which is, perhaps, a good thing) his arguments remained cogent and understandable. Most importantly he called Harper over and over on his "lies" (as Dion characterized them). He called Harper on his distortions and over-simplifications often and garnered the support of the other leaders in doing it. I believe, many watchers will have perceived that Harper has been the practioner of "the big lie" and ascribes to the cynical belief that if one repeats the same untruth often enough and loudly enough, it will be believed.

Although Dion may not have "won" the debate in the sense that there was some sort of "knockout punch", nevertheless he was able to convey that he above all others in the debate, especially Harper, offered a concrete program for the future. As far as past performance is concerned Harper knew that the headlines spoke very loudly and that what they were saying was not favourable to him so he wisely tried to direct attention to the negative headlines concerning the credit crunch and pointed out that we had done things differently in Canada. Unfortunately the other debaters landed some very heavy body blows with respect to the headlines about job losses in the manufacturing sector and the Conservatives contribution to those losses through misguided policies that have driven up the Canadian dollar and the imprudent remarks of Harpers finance minister to the effect that Ontario was not a good place to invest.

Those remarks, I believe will haunt the Conservatives because they betray a callous and uncaring attitude. That impression I believe was perhaps hammered home not by anything any of the leaders said in the debate, but rather by a nameless camera man who gave us a long lingering view of Harpers face as Elizabeth May recounted some of the extreme suffering she has observed arising out of the recent heavy losses of manufacturing jobs in Canada. Harper maintained a bored and fixed grin that literally screamed, "I don't really give a shit about this Elizabeth so can we please get on with it." He looked like the cat who swallowed the canary and I'm sure that anyone who was worried about their job (or had already lost one) wouldn't have failed to notice. It was that same distant veiled look the HR people get when they announce the layoffs and hand out the pink slips and I think people will recognize it.

Although no knockout punches were landed both the English and the French debate will mean many people are going to being re-examining some of their assumptions and especially some of Harpers glib oversimplifications and distortions. I think over the next few days we'll see a weakening of his support in Quebec as a result of a similar dynamic occurring there after the Quebec debate in which Dion clearly shone and in Ontario as people try to reconcile the dissonance between the headlines and debate visuals, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, Harpers hollow sounding claims about the health of the Canadian economy and his fitness to serve as a compassionate repository for people's trust when actions are required to protect their future well-being.

Look for Dion's numbers to begin to climb toward election day.

[updated Fri Oct 03 20:09:46 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 20:09

20 replies so far. Join this conversation.

gohabs1 (Suspended for inappropriate post)

Harper's leadership and trust numbers are falling faster than the water I just saw going over Niagara falls. I wonder how low they will go now that he failed miserably in the debates and another plagarised speech has just been brought out by the Liberals.

Of equal interest are the numbers for Layton going forward. He was very shrill and overbearing last night and people noticed that. I believe his numbers will sink back to around 16-17% and a seat count of under 30.

[updated Fri Oct 03 21:31:20 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 21:31

9 replies so far. Join this conversation.

Rod_thumb Informed1 (suspended)

Liberals caught breaking the Law, charges are pending?

I am not making this up. OOPS someone is going to lose their job ....

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/index.cfm?sid=177334&sc=659

Liberal official apologizes for removing political signs put up by Conservatives

WAYNE THIBODEAU
The Guardian

Mark O’Halloran, executive director of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island, is seen getting back into his car after removing campaign signs belonging to the Conservatives.

The executive director of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island is apologizing after he was caught on camera removing political signs put in place by local Conservatives.
Patrick Ross, a Conservative campaign worker, photographed Mark O’Halloran removing the lawn signs less than five hours after they were put up.
Those lawn signs read: “Say no to the Dion tax!” The signs were strategically placed below Liberal billboards throughout the capital city.

O’Halloran’s back seat, filled with Conservative lawn signs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The signs were later returned to the Conservatives, some of which were damaged as shown.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Photos provided to The Guardian show a close-up of the back seat of O’Halloran’s car, which was stacked to the roof with lawn signs, many of which had their stakes snapped in two.
Mary Lynn Kane, a spokeswoman for Charlottetown Liberal Shawn Murphy, described it as a miscommunication and added the Conservatives are making a mountain out of a molehill.
“Nobody knew where they were from because there did not appear to be any authorized official agent. A call was made to Elections Canada and Elections Canada told them to take them down,” Kane said, in an interview.
“I haven’t seen it but I guess the ‘authorized by’ is minuscule.”
O’Halloran could not be reached for comment.
Kane said he would not be taking calls from the media but added that the executive director of the Liberal party did apologize to the Conservatives.
Charlottetown Conservative Tom DeBlois said news that his signs were being “vandalized by representatives of the Shawn Murphy” campaign is disappointing.
“I understand that emotions can run high during a campaign but this type of behaviour is disappointing and shows just how sensitive my opponent’s campaign is about the Dion carbon tax,” said DeBlois.
“I hope that this will be the end of such antics because the people of Charlottetown deserve better.”
Charlottetown Liberal Shawn Murphy said the signs should not have been taken down but he stopped short of apologizing for the actions of the executive director.
“If anyone was taking down signs that were put there by another party, then they should not have been and they certainly weren’t doing so with my authorization or blessing and it’s unfortunate,” said Murphy.
Dana Doiron, a spokesman for Elections Canada, admits an official from Elections Canada in Ottawa did tell the Liberals to take down the sign — something that should not have happened.
He said Elections Canada has apologized.
If an illegal sign is in place, a complaint needs to be launched with the Commissioner of Elections and it is the commissioner who decides if the sign needs to be removed — not Elections Canada.
“The error was in making a judgment remotely. It’s not our business.”

[updated Fri Oct 03 23:44:16 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

03 Oct 23:44

16 replies so far. Join this conversation.

KLK

How come theses numbers add up to more than 100%?
I sure do want your poll to be correct, but something seems weird.
KLK

[updated Sat Oct 04 09:03:43 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

04 Oct 09:03

2 replies so far. Join this conversation.

MRM

The latest seat projections dated Oct 4th from Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. It takes into account all of the most recent national polls and the riding by riding analyst of each to come up an aggregate seat projection. Apologies but cannot get the table to post correctly.

CPC Lib NDP Bloc Grn INP

Atlantic 8 21 3 - - -
Quebec 11 14 1 48 - 1
Ontario 57 34 15 - - -
Prairies 22 5 4 - - -
Alberta 28 - - - - -
BC 27 2 7 - - -

Total 153 76 30 48 0 1
I personally think that both the numbers in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are low and there are a few very close ridings in rural Ontario and Quebec that are now leaning Lib / Bloc but could swing Tory so a majority is still very much in the offing. It seems that the losses in Quebec are being made up and more in ON and BC.

[updated Sat Oct 04 12:23:55 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

04 Oct 12:23

6 replies so far. Join this conversation.

edwin

I think that Dion by showing that the Conservative's ad ( for the last 18 months) were wrong improves his position.

[updated Sat Oct 04 13:09:35 -0400 2008]

Reply to Comment

04 Oct 13:09

2 replies so far. Join this conversation.

sprint20092010 (Suspended)

With the high-tech Supra Shoes technology and unique colorways design, it can make you more special in the crowd. Now you can choose whatever you like on our Supra Footwear shop. Supra Skytop, the colorway of shoes is just right, which can stimulate your passion for sport availably. Those great quality but Supra TK Society are waiting for you right now. There will always be one pair of shoes appropriated for you on our Supra Sneakers store.

[updated Sun Sep 26 22:55:49 -0400 2010]

Reply to Comment

26 Sep 22:55

No replies yet. Join this conversation.

sprint20092010 (Suspended)

If you are looking for a pair of pretty UGG Boots, you shouldn't miss this chance for purchasing UGG Classic Cardy Boots this season in our shop. Ugg Bailey Button would give people such a deep impression. UGG Classic Short Boots appreciate it not only by the high quality with steady innovations but also by its stylish designs. There is no doubt that it could go well with you casual outfits. There are many kinds of UGG Classic Tall Boots for different ages and tastes online. So pick up your own UGG Sandals now.

[updated Sun Sep 26 22:57:41 -0400 2010]

Reply to Comment

26 Sep 22:57

No replies yet. Join this conversation.

sprint20092010 (Suspended)

It is named Christian Louboutin for the reason that man who create Christian Louboutin shoes. At the same time, it's helpful to reduce the risk of injury for the player. If you think your feet should be protected well during the strenuous exercise, the Christian Louboutin Pumps are the right choice for you.
There are many Cheap Christian Louboutin Heels from our shop. If you want to learn more informations of those Christian Louboutin Boots, please visite our website http://www.louboutinshopsale.com/. Are you looking for a comfortable shoes? We are ready for you to give you great discount Christian Louboutin Sandals and best service.

[updated Sun Sep 26 22:59:33 -0400 2010]

Reply to Comment

26 Sep 22:59

No replies yet. Join this conversation.