Nanos National Poll - Strengths and Weaknesses of the Liberal Party

Nik Nanos — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Last month, we polled Canadians on the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the Conservative government. In our most recent poll we asked Canadians to articulate what they believed the main strengths and weaknesses of the Liberal Party were. Of note, both the Conservatives and the Liberals received an overall negative brand score with more Canadians likely to cite a weakness than a strength. However the negative definition of the Conservatives is significantly stronger than that of the Liberals (Conservative defined weaknesses 65%, Liberal defined weaknesses 49%). With the change in leadership for the Liberals, there are still a significant number of Canadians who have yet to cast judgment on the Liberals with one of every two Canadians being unable to articulate a Liberal strength or weakness. This points to the fact that the Liberals still require a significant effort to define themselves and explains the Conservative attempts to fill the Liberal perception void. The research also suggests that Canadians are more likely to cite the respective leaders as a party weakness than any other factor. Beyond the leader, the Conservative brand has a greater tendency to be driven by performance factors such as managing the economy, being consistent and well organized. The Liberal brand, beyond Ignatieff, tends to be driven by experience and the perception that it is more balanced on issues and is more centrist in its approach. Looking at the weaknesses of the two parties, there are interesting threads of opinion. For the Conservatives, many of their brand weaknesses relate to their style of politics while for the Liberals their brand weaknesses relate to the past or organizational capabilities.

New Nanos National Ballot - Impressions of Harper and Ignatieff measured

Nik Nanos — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos poll suggests that the election dialogue between Harper and Ignatieff has lifted the Conservatives in Ontario, at the expense of the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens. We know from other research that Ontarians are more likely to be concerned about the economic downturn than other Canadians. Liberal focus on employment insurance likely has less resonance in Ontario than other regions such as Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Looking at the longer term trend, the overall national shift has been marginal and shows that it continues to be a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The poll suggests some regional shifts but no significant national shifts as a result of the Harper Ignatieff election showdown. If an election occurred at the time of the poll, it would most likely yield yet another minority government. However, this observation does not take into account a number of other factors such as - the election preparedness of the parties, their ability to run a good campaign and the performance of the leaders. Looking at the net impression scores for the leaders it's clear that the Tories need to focus on rebuilding Stephen Harper's brand in the province of Quebec and that the Liberals need to focus on defining the image of Michael Ignatieff - who still lacks significant definition.

Strengths and weaknesses of Conservative government

Nik Nanos — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos poll helps one understand the overall image of the Conservative government of Canada. By asking Canadians, unprompted, to articulate their views of strengths and weaknesses we can get to the nuance of what people associate with the government without introducing any content or information. The research indicates that Canadians are more likely to associate weaknesses with the Conservative government as opposed to strengths (65% can articulate a weakness and 36% can articulate a strength). Of concern for the Tories is that one of every five Canadians believes the Conservatives have no strength whatsoever. Comparing that to the 3% who say the Tories have no weakness suggests that the anti-Harper sentiments are much firmer than the pro-Harper sentiments. Likewise, the weaknesses associated with the Conservatives at the time of the survey are linked to many of the former strengths – Stephen Harper himself, transparency in government and economic management.

New poll on effectiveness and impact of Ignatieff attack ads

Nik Nanos — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Properly crafted and validated by the political target, negative ads can be a powerful political tool. Research by Nanos on the impact of the recent Conservative ads attacking Michael Ignatieff indicates that in the short term they have not had a significant impact. A majority of Canadians consider the ads ineffective and believe that they reflect poorly on the Conservatives. Of note, the ads have had a marginally negative impact on the impression of Michael Ignatieff primarily among committed Conservative and NDP voters. However, the attack ads have had less of an impact in Atlantic Canada and in battleground Quebec.

Liberal advantage over Tories widens

Nik Nanos — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Our most recent national poll indicates support for the federal Liberals continues to incrementally trend upwards. Considering the economy is in the midst of a significant downturn, the Conservatives have generally done well in maintaining their overall support. While they continue to trail the Liberals it's not realistic for an incumbent government to expect their polling numbers to improve in this economy. The reality is that the Conservatives are still strong in the West and are generally competitive in Ontario. The greatest erosion of Conservative support has occurred in the province of Quebec. Although the numbers in Quebec for the Conservatives are currently low, one should be cautious because voter volatility in Quebec has historically been much higher than in other parts of the country. A look at Ontario indicates that the Liberals currently have an eight point lead. We know from our research that Ontarians tend to be more concerned about the economy compared to other Canadians and the widening margin could be indicative of increased grumpiness among voters in Ontario.

Nanos poll shows Canadians think Oliphant Inquiry poor use of tax dollars - mixed on necessity

Nik Nanos — Mon, 11 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The most recent National Nanos poll revealed that, overall, Canadians are divided on the necessity of the inquiry into the business affairs of Karlheinz Schreiber and former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. Although most regions displayed similar perspectives, Ontarians were more likely to believe that the inquiry is not necessary (net necessity score of -9). Watch the video of the analysis.

Stimulus, sure - just watch the cost - Nanos Comments for the GTR Economic Summit

Nik Nanos — Thu, 07 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

**Boosting the Greater Toronto Area's economy could come at a high price in public opinion** In war, the first condition of victory is the mobilization of public opinion. This axiom will be especially true in the local and global battle with the economic downturn. Our banks, insurance companies and the broader financial sector have been hit. Our manufacturing sector is suffering layoffs, and many Canadians have seen their saving and retirement funds walloped. The economic decline and loss of jobs have been faster and steeper than expected, taking many by surprise. As the Greater Toronto Region Economic Summit convenes today, our leaders and policy-makers should keep in mind not just the public's call for immediate action today but the long-term implications of the current stimulus campaign.

Close federal race continues - Tories down in Quebec up in Ontario

Nik Nanos — Sat, 02 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The most recent National Nanos tracking continues to show a tight race between the Tories and Grits. A look at the regional breaks shows that while the Tories have lost ground in Quebec their support has strengthened in Ontario. For details including the regional breakdowns visit the [Nanos website](http://www.nanosresearch.com). On the leadership front, Stephen Harper still leads as the leader Canadians think will make the best Prime Minister, ahead of Michael Ignatieff. Testing of the recent statement made by Michael Ignatieff that taxes would have to increase in the future to pay for our current deficits shows it was more likely to be negatively, as opposed to positively, received by Canadians. Also of note, analysis of questions measuring the unity of the respective federal political parties indicates Canadians believe the Conservative Party is the most unified. This is in contrast to a media narrative focusing on potential divisions in the Conservative Party because of the Schreiber/Mulroney affair.

Nanos Poll: Environment Trumps Prosperity for Oil Sands Development

Nik Nanos — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Our most recent poll revealed that, overall, Canadians believed that oil sands development had a net negative impact of 9 points on Canada's reputation abroad. However there were striking differences from region to region. Likewise, the environment trumped economic prosperity in regards to importance.

Liberals and Conservatives still close - Trend favours the Liberals at the expense of the NDP

Nik Nanos — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The most recent National Nanos Poll shows that the close race between the Conservatives and Liberals continues (LP 36, CP 33, NDP 13, BQ 10, GP 8) Looking at the trend since the election, the key takeaway is the steady decline in support for the NDP with those former NDP voters moving to the Liberals. A key strategic trend for the last few years has been the shift between the division and unification of non-Conservative voters. In 2004, NDP supporters shifting to the Liberals resulted in the Liberal minority government. In 2006 and 2008, a split opposition allowed the Harper Conservatives to win. Polling since the 2008 election indicates that there is an inverse trend between Liberals and the New Democrat support.

Nanos - UB Poll: Majorities in Canada and the US support greater co-operation

Nik Nanos — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

On the eve of Barack Obama’s first visit to Canada as President of the United States, a new four-year tracking study by Nanos Research and The State University of New York at Buffalo conducted between 2005 and 2008 shows that the Canada US relationship remains strong. The double survey of over 1,000 Americans and 1,000 Canadians, conducted each year, showed majority agreement on a range of issues from an integrated energy policy, border co-operation and co-operation on national security issues. However, Americans were more likely to perceive that they had closer business values with Japan than with Canada.

New Nanos Poll: Measuring Political Coat-tails - Leader Impact on Local Party Candidates + Budget Performance

Nik Nanos — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Leadership is always a key factor in the political fortunes of any party. The latest Nanos national poll measured the impact federal party leaders would have on their local candidates and also gauged the performance of the party leaders during the last federal budget. Research indicates that Michael Ignatieff, at this point in time, enjoys a positive draw for local Liberal candidates across Canada (+19), compared to Stephen Harper who has a positive draw of +5 nationally for local Conservative candidates. These scores are based on the trade-off between positive and negative scores. Of note, Harper's projected impact on local Conservative candidates in the province of Quebec was -28 compared to Duceppe and Layton who had positive draws in Quebec (+47 and +25 respectively).

Nanos-Policy Options Poll - Canadians see recession lasting into 2010; Support deficits and Infrastructure spending

Nik Nanos — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Canadians expect a severe economic downturn lasting into 2010 rather than a mild recession ending by the summer of this year. A majority of Canadians also support federal and provincial governments going into deficit to stimulate the economy, with infrastructure spending and personal tax cuts being the preferred course of action to jump start the economy. There is very little support in the country for industry bailout programs.

Nanos Poll - Ignatieff still unknown, Harper too well known

Nik Nanos — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The Canadian Press OTTAWA — Michael Ignatieff remains a blank slate for most members of the public who don't yet know what to make of the Liberal leader, a new poll suggests. By contrast, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is a polarizing figure who evokes strong opinions from both supporters and detractors, according to the survey done by Nanos Research and provided exclusively to The Canadian Press. The findings mean both leaders have much at stake - for vastly different reasons - as Harper's minority Conservative government prepares for the resumption of Parliament on Jan. 26 and a budget the next day.

New Nanos National Poll - Lib 34, CP 33, NDP 19, BQ 7, GP 7 (completed Jan 7)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The Canadian Press January 9, 2009 at 4:08 PM EST OTTAWA — The Liberal Party has bounced back into contention with Michael Ignatieff at the helm, a new poll suggests. The Liberals have moved into a statistical tie with the governing Tories, according to the Nanos Research survey provided exclusively to The Canadian Press. Liberal support stood at 34 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals' dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stéphane Dion.

Harper has "poisoned the well" in parliament - path forward is uncertain

Nik Nanos — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

It’s been quite a week. What should have been the launch of the Harper “good management of the economy” fiscal update ended up teetering the government on the brink of defeat. Considering that the last election was called by Stephen Harper to end a dysfunctional parliament, it would be fair to say that the Prime Minister himself in this instance has poisoned the well.

New Nanos National Poll - CP, 32%, LP 30%, NDP 20%, GP 10%, BQ 9%

Nik Nanos — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The first post election poll by Nanos Research shows a tightening of the margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The initial change may suggest that the Prime Minister's comments relating to a possible deficit may not necessarily be resonating well among core Conservative supporters in Western Canada. The Dion resignation may have made the Liberals a temporary parking spot for disaffected Conservatives.

On the Harper election win (Nanos Sun Column)

Nik Nanos — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The CPAC-Nanos tracking over the closing weekend of the campaign showed a positive improvement in the individual performance of the Prime Minister and a spike in Conservative support Thanksgiving Sunday. A look at the individual nightly tracking showed support for the Conservatives at 32.6% and 32.8% on Friday and Saturday respectively. On Sunday, however, the individual daily tracking conducted by Nanos showed a Conservative jump to 37.1%. The final election result for the Conservatives was 37.6%.

Conservative Victory Propelled by Ontario Voters

Nik Nanos — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

As you may know, the night of each election I usually send a closing recap. The research showed a positive trend line for the performance of Stephen Harper on the closing weekend. A look at the numbers indicates that the magnitude of the Harper victory was primarily driven by voters in the province of Ontario where the Conservatives closed the campaign with a five point margin over the Liberals (39%-34%). Nervousness on the state of the economy likely drove Ontario voters to the Conservatives as the safest comparative choice. The CPAC-Nanos tracking showed a significant pick-up for the Conservatives on Sunday (our last day of tracking) very consistent with the final support for all the major parties.

CPAC-Nanos Election Tracking CP 34.2, LP 26.7, NDP 21.4, BQ 9.5, GP 8.2 (ending October 12)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Looking at the tracking over the weekend shows an uptick for the individual daily performance index for Stephen Harper on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Likewise, he has recovered some lost ground on the best Prime Minister measure. The research suggests a comparatively better election close for Harper, compared to Dion and Layton. The Sunday only numbers show a significant jump in support for the Conservates - up to 37%. If this holds then the margin of victory will be higher than anticipated. Looking at the big picture there are a number of narratives in this campaign. First, the Conservatives were poised to win a majority mid campaign until the culture and crime issues revitalized BQ support. Harper's stronger closing weekend and improvement in support in battleground Ontario has helped increase his margin over the Liberals and has secured a second mandate for the Conservatives. A review of the night-to-night individual results shows a good Thanksgiving Sunday for the Harper Conservatives.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 11)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

With two days left in the campaign the latest CPAC Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a six point lead over the Liberals nationally (33% to 27%). Support for the NDP, after trending up for a few days has held steady at twenty two percent nationally. In battleground Ontario the Tories and Liberals remain in a tight race with only two points separating them in our latest tracking (Conservatives - 34% ; Liberals - 32%) with the NDP trending up to one in four (26%) in the province. On the CPAC Nanos Leadership Index Stephen Harper has bounced back from the declines earlier this week and now holds a 30 point lead on Stephane Dion, with Jack Layton a further one point back (Harper - 87; Dion - 57; Layton - 56). On the best PM front, Harper (30%) is ten points ahead of Layton (20%) with Dion close behind at 17%).

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 32, LP 28, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 10)

Nik Nanos — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

As we enter the last weekend of the campaign,the Conservatives and the Liberals continue to be gripped in a close race. Of note, the Conservatives have been trending up in the last two nights in battleground Ontario. The Bloc retain a commanding lead in Quebec (22 points) while the Conservatives lead by 20 points in the West. Fluctuations continue to take place in Atlantic Canada where as of last evening the Liberals lead. Stephen Harper's downward slide on the best Prime Minister front continues and he is now at 29% (his lowest rating in the campaign thus far), although still ahead of Jack Layton by eight points.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 9)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

As of last night we have six point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (33% to 27%). Conservative support remains unchanged but there has been movement from the Grits to the NDP (who we now have at 22% nationally). A few things to consider going into the final weekend of the campaign. First, if the Conservatives can pivot the focus of the election from themselves to Dion, it will serve them well. The reality is that as long as the Harper Tories drive support away from the Liberals (regardless of the final voter destination), it helps the Conservatives.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 8)

Nik Nanos — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

**This evening on CPAC I will be blogging live likely after 830 pm EST. Post your question in this topic.** The new normal in this campaign is a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The margin between the two parties continues to be a scant four percentage points. There are a number of key trends to watch. First, NDP support in Quebec is on the move upwards as BQ and Liberal support is sliding. Regardless, the BQ still holds a commanding 23 point lead. The Liberals lead the Conservatives in battleground Ontario by 11 points and the Tory support in the West has hit 50%.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 11, GP 7 (ending October 7)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The Conservatives continue to hold onto a tenuous lead of four points over the Liberals according to the CPAC-Nanos poll completed last night. The downward trend in support for the Conservatives continues in the key battleground of Ontario where what was a neck-and-neck race last week has turned into a 12 point lead for the Liberals (LP 40, CP 28 in Ontario). Over the past seven days marginal declines for the Conservatives in Ontario have largely been offset by marginal gains in the West, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. However, a loss of support in the province of Ontario (now noticeably below their 2006 support of 35%), and BQ gains in Quebec represents a structural obstacle to Conservative seat gains.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 31, NDP 18, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 6)

Nik Nanos — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The trend lines say it all. We now have a tight race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Phase one of the narrowing of the gap featured a drop in Tory support in Quebec. The last three days now see a softening of Conservative support in Ontario - potentially an "echo effect" from Quebec. Even if Ontarians are not as motivated on culture as Quebecers, the media coverage out of Quebec likely has an impact. Sunday night's English coverage of the demonstration of artists in Montreal broadcast across the country was quite something. Harper still maintains a comparative advantage on the leadership front. Also, there was an uptick in Tory support in Quebec to 20% but the BQ have now reached 46% support in Quebec - four points higher than their support in 2006. Today's Conservative platform will focus attention on the Conservatives and is now a critical factor in the election outcome.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 5)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

With a five point margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals, the results are currently reminiscent of the 2006 federal election. Support for the BQ continues to ramp up, likely a result of the continued focus on culture and crime. Ontario remains a close race with only four points separating the Liberals and the Conservatives. NDP support in Ontario is also trending upward. Tomorrow's release of the Conservative platform will be a key event shaping the close of the campaign. With a late platform release and a tightening of the race, there is no room for error for the Conservatives with only about seven days left in the campaign.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The fallout from the French and English debates shows the previous pre-debate 10 point Conservative margin is now four percentage points. Tracking shows incremental movement in favour of the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Dion registered his highest score as the person Canadians think would make the best Prime Minsiter at 20% although he still trails Stephen Harper by 12 points. Regionally, the Liberals were more likely to realize gains in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Battleground Ontario remains a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives while the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead in Western Canada.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 28, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 3)

Nik Nanos — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking poll shows a seven point margin for the Harper Conservatives over the Dion Liberals. The Liberals have held on to post debate gains in Quebec but Ontario remains a tie between the Tories and the Grits. In the post English debate world, however, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton have regained some lost ground on their daily leadership index. The research at this point suggests that the French debate has buoyed the image of Stephane Dion as well as Liberal support in Quebec while the Conservative numbers have slipped in Quebec.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

In politics it is rarely the knock-out punch but an accumulation of factors. The research suggests that although there was no clear winner in the leaders debate Stephane Dion was able to exceed expectations for a number of voters. As a result, his personal impressions have improved, as has support for the Liberals. However, we will need to see if this is a trend or a short term improvement. The CPAC- Nanos tracking has shown an incremental slide in the number of Canadians who would pick Stephen Harper as the leader who would make the best PM. With last night being the first full night of tracking in Quebec following the French language debate, the Liberal numbers are picking up - not enough to challenge to the BQ but the Grit numbers are improving.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 1)

Nik Nanos — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

**Post your comment or question about the English Leaders' Debate.** The latest CPAC-Nanos tracking has the Harper Tories continuing to enjoy an 11 point lead over the Dion Liberals. Support for the BQ in Quebec continues to incrementally move up. Of note, on the best PM front, Harper leads by 15 points (ahead of Jack Layton) but the last week has seen a steady slide in Harper's best PM numbers from a high of almost 40% to 33%.

Chat about the Leaders' Debate Live

Nik Nanos — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Blog entries will be read after the debate - 10 to midnight this evening. Keep posting. I'll be blogging live during the leaders' debates while at CPAC. What do you think? What do you hear that you like or dislike? How are the party leaders performing? Any knock-out punches? After the debate I will be on CPAC live - so post your views and questions and comments here. Cheers, Nik

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending September 30)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The first night of tracking since the plagiarism issue hit the campaign shows no initial significant impact on Conservative ballot support. The Tories still maintain a ten point margin over the Liberals. It may take a few days to understand the true impact, if any, of the plagiarism story and the effect it will have on the dynamic of this week's leadership debates. Of note, Harper's trust advantage has eroded in the last two nights. For most of the campaign Harper has had a significant advantage over the other federal leaders on trust, competence and vision. Although, Harper has retained his advantage on competence and vision, perceptions related to trust have eroded and there is now a statistical tie between Harper, Layton and Dion on the daily CPAC-Nanos trust measure. Also of note, Layton's daily leadership score dropped yesterday, likely a result of the focus on the Conservatives and the Liberals.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 20, Bloc 10, GP 8 (ending September 29)

Nik Nanos — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Nationally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals (37% to 26%) followed by the NDP at 20%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 8%. Yesterday's attacks on Stephen Harper resulted in negative pressure on the daily impression for him related to trust, competence and vision. However, his best PM score and ballot support for the Tories remained steady.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 28)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

CPAC-Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives still lead by 10 points. On the daily leadership index score, Stephen Harper has regained ground lost on Friday and Saturday as a result of the focus on Lee Richardson and his comment related to Dion wanting an economic downturn for political gain. Ontario is a tight race and the BQ are still doing well in Quebec, likely buoyed up by Harper's culture and crime comments. Every election problem for Stephen Harper to date has been short term and his personal leadership numbers have recovered after a couple of days.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 27, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 27)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for the Harper Conservatives. However, a number of new factors have diminished the Conservative lead, which is still comfortable, to 9 points. First, Harper's culture comments renewed BQ support in Quebec. Combine the Richardson comments related to immigrants causing crime and Harper's comments asserting Dion wanted the economy to perform poorly and the gap narrowed from 15 to 9 points. These two comments represent a tenuous lifeline to the Liberal campaign.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 25, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 8 (ending September 26)

Nik Nanos — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading by 14 points at 39% nationally. The Liberals follow with 25%, the NDP with 19%, the Green Party at 9% and the Bloc Québécois at 8%. In Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, the gap narrows with statistical ties between the Conservatives and the Liberals. In Quebec, the Bloc now leads with 37% support. Meanwhile the leadership index sees Stephen Harper's number dip to 85 while the numbers for Jack Layton and Stephane Dion rise to 56 and 42 respectively. On the question of who would make the country's best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper continues to lead with 37%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 11% support, followed by Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe at 4% each.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 24, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 25)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives at 39% nationally and maintaining their 15-point lead over the Liberals. The Liberals follow with 24%, the NDP with 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals, while in the West, the NDP moves into second place above the Liberals. On the question of who would make the country's best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper leads with 40%, followed by Jack Layton at 19%. Stéphane Dion trails with 10% support, a new low for the Liberal Leader, followed by Elizabeth May at 5%, and Gilles Duceppe at 3%.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 40, LP 25, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 24)

Nik Nanos — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

**Post your questions for Nik…** Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly “Nik on the Numbers” feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air. Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives hitting the 40% mark for national support, a significant lead for the Tories over the Liberals. With the Liberals dropping to 25%, the 15 point difference between the two parties becomes the widest margin seen since election tracking began. The NDP follow at 19%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 8%. CPAC-Nanos' second set of weekly regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies, Alberta and the lower mainland in British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec support, but is statistically tied with the Liberals and NDP in Montreal. In the Atlantic provinces and Toronto, the Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, and in British Columbia (excluding the lower mainland) the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are statistically tied.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 21, BQ 9, GP 7 (ending September 23)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Last night's tracking showed a noticeable jump in Bloc support in Quebec coinciding with attacks on Stephen Harper's views and comments related to culture. Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Tories holding strong nationally at 37% support. The Liberals trail 11 points behind at 26%, followed by the NDP at 21%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 7 %. The Bloc Québécois has regained ground in Quebec, while the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in the province of Ontario. At 39%, Stephen Harper heads Canada's choice for Prime Minister, followed by Jack Layton at 17%. Stéphane Dion drops to 11%, with Elizabeth May scoring 5% and Gilles Duceppe 3%.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22)

Nik Nanos — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Thinking of the overall campaign narrative from a Nanos polling perspective, there are a number of key observations. First, the Conservatives had a strong launch which shifted the pre-Labour Day numbers from a statistical tie with the Liberals to a Conservative lead. The Sparrow-Puffin glitches only had a temporary impact on Stephen Harper and the Tories. The margin for the Tories increased post-Puffin and then narrowed again with the Ritz comments. In my opinion, the Wall Street meltdown has validated the importance of the economy as the election issue at this time, thus giving a bump for the Tories, who are driving a "in times of uncertainty, don't risk things on the other guy" mantra.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 22, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 21)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their five-point lead over the Liberals at 35% national support. The Liberals stand at 30%, followed by the NDP at 22%, the Bloc Québécois at 7% and the Green Party at 6%. In Ontario, the Conservatives have slipped below the Liberals, while the NDP is gaining momentum in the province, and also in Quebec where the race remains tight between the Conservatives and the Bloc. Stephen Harper is up on the leadership index to 99 points, some 43 points ahead of Jack Layton who comes in at second with 56 points. Stéphane Dion's current score is 40 points, followed by Gilles Duceppe at 17 points and Elizabeth May at 16.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 31, NDP 20, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 20)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading in national support at 36%. Just 5 points behind are the Liberals at 31%, followed by the NDP at 20% and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In Central Canada, the deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberals in Ontario and the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc in Quebec continues.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 29, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 19)

Nik Nanos — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives continue their national lead with 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 29%, the NDP at 18%, and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In the battleground province of Ontario, the Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals, and similarly, in Quebec with the Bloc. While Stephen Harper remains the leader in Canada's choice for Prime Minister, his rating on the leadership index has slipped to 94 points. Jack Layton is up on the index to 51 points, replacing Stéphane Dion who drops to third at 36 points. Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe follow, with 14 and 13 points respectively.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 28, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 18)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives (39%) leading the Liberals (28%) by 11 points, followed by the NDP at 18%, and the Bloc Québecois and the Green Party tied at 7%. While Stephen Harper remains the frontrunner with 103 points on the CPAC-exclusive leadership index scorecard, Stéphane Dion takes over second place with 53 points, followed by Jack Layton with 42 points, Elizabeth May with 11 points, and Gilles Duceppe with 9 points.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 17)

Nik Nanos — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

**Post your questions for Nik...** Tonight, Nik will be on PrimeTime Politics with Peter Van Dusen at 8 pm ET / 5 pm PT for his weekly "Nik on the Numbers" feature. If you have any questions regarding our tracking or polling in general, you can post them on the blog, Nik will be answering your questions live on the air. Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll indicate a 9-point lead for the Conservatives who stand nationally at 39%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the Bloc Québecois at 7%, and the Green Party at 6%. CPAC-Nanos' first set of regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Quebec (excluding Montreal), Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies and Western Canada, while the Liberals lead in Toronto and the GTA, and remain statistically tied with the Conservatives in the rest of Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 7, BQ 7 (ending September 16)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Results of today's CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives are still holding strong nationally at 38%, followed by the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 17%, and the Green Party and the Bloc Québecois tied at 7%. On the CPAC-exclusive leadership index scorecard evaluating trust, competence and national vision, Stephen Harper leads with 108 points, followed by Jack Layton at 51 points, Stéphane Dion who has dropped to 32 points, Elizabeth May at 14 points and Gilles Duceppe at 13. Stephane Dion's one day drop (from 48 to 32 points) coincided with Bob Rae's intervention in the campaign yesterday attacking the Conservatives and the NDP. Even factoring the personal Dion drop, there was no impact on support for the Liberals.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 8, BQ 6 (ending September 15)

Nik Nanos — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Our latest CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 15th) shows the Conservatives seven points up, nationally, over the Liberals, nationally, among decided voters (CP - 38%, Lib - 31%, NDP - 17%, GP - 8%, BQ - 6%). In Quebec, the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals remain gripped in a three way battle for first in the province (Bloc - 26%, CP - 25% and Lib - 24%), while in both the Atlantic and Ontario the Tories and Grits are statistically tied. As we've seen throughout the campaign the Tories hold a solid lead over the Liberals in Western Canada (CP - 47%, Lib - 29%).

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 31, NDP 18, GP 9, BQ 6 (ending September 14)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Our CPAC-Nanos tracking shows a statistical tie in Canada's two most populous provinces for the second consecutive night. Nationally, the Conservatives lead and Harper enjoys a significant leadership advantage, however the story after week one of the campaign is the decline in support for the Bloc. With all three federalist parties gaining ground in Quebec the campaigns will be battling hard to pick up former Bloc voters.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 30, NDP 17, GP 9, BQ 6 (ending September 13)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest results of the CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking (completed September 13th) shows the Conservatives remain eight points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters (CP 38%, Lib 30%, NDP 17%, GP 9%, BQ 6%). Results in Quebec show a statistical three way tie between the Conservatives (29%), Bloc (26%) and Liberals (24%). Looking at the results in other regions of the country the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical dead heat in both the Atlantic region (CP 38%, Lib 36%) and Ontario (CP 37%, Lib (36%). In Western Canada the Tories currently hold a 19 point lead on the Liberals (CP 46%, Lib 27%).

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 30, NDP 15, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 12)

Nik Nanos — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 12th) shows the Conservatives eight points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters (CP 38%, Lib 30%, NDP 15%, BQ 9% GP 8%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (CP 38%, Lib 37%) with the Tories narrowing the gap in the Atlantic provinces to 7 points (Lib 40%, CP 33%).

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 14, BQ 9, GP 9 (ending September 11)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking completed last night (September 11th) shows the Conservatives seven points ahead of the Liberals among decided voters. (CP 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 14%, BQ 9% GP 9%). The Tories and Liberals continue to be statistically tied in Ontario (Lib 40%; CP 39%) with the Tories extending their lead in the West to 18 points (CP 45%; Lib 27%).

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 32, NDP 13, BQ 9, GP 9 (ending September 10)

Nik Nanos — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Our first set of CPAC-Nanos nightly tracking indicates the Conservatives have entered the campaign with a five point lead over the Liberals among decided voters (CP 37%, Lib 32%, NDP 13%, BQ 9% GP 9%). Notably, the Conservatives are showing strength in central Canada where they are statistically tied with the Liberals in Ontario (Lib 41%, CP 39%) and close on the heels of the Bloc in Quebec (BQ 35%, CP 32%).

LP 35, CP 33, NDP 17, BQ 8, GP 7 - Harper leads as best PM (New Nanos Poll)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos poll completed Wednesday night shows that the Liberals and Conservatives are gripped in a deadlock (LP 35%, CP 33%, NDP 17%, BQ 8%, GP 7%). Of note, in the province of Quebec, support for the Bloc has decreased by nine points in the last quarter, with the NDP picking up most of that support. On the best Prime Minister front, Stephen Harper still enjoys a significant advantage over Stephane Dion. A potential election poses risks for both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Prime Minister Harper seems ready to risk his mandate while his party is tied with the Liberals. Liberal leader Stephane Dion has not been embraced by Canadians.

Time for federal politicians to refocus (Nanos Sun Media Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Given the chance, I think many Canadians would welcome the opportunity to give their elected representatives a political spanking. Whether it’s the advertising and sponsorship scandal under the federal Liberals, the Elections Canada investigation into Conservative election expenses or a host of other political shenanigans, the overall impact of these goings on is to make the Canadians “change the channel” away from Canada’s national political scene. And why not?

Both Harper and Dion face greater risks than their rhetoric suggests (Nanos Sun Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Not long into the Harper mandate, it was evident that the “phoney war” was on. The Tories would repeatedly throw down the election gauntlet and the Dion Liberals would blink, and blink and blink again. The Conservatives were generous in identifying legislation as matters of confidence and Canada was almost perpetually on the brink of a federal election. Liberal parliamentary contortions in the House of Commons have kept the Harper Conservative government alive longer than many expected. An outside look at the pattern of behaviour might lead one to conclude that the Conservatives have a strong upper hand. A look at the polling, however, shows a political reality different from the dynamic in the House of Commons.

Who Canadians trust on the issues (New Nanos National Poll)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

This month's Nanos national poll on who Canadians trust on the issues indicates that the Conservatives lead for trust on jobs and the economy and the War in Afghanistan. The poll shows a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives for trust on the enviroment. Of note, even with the launch of the Liberal "Green Shift Plan" the Liberals did not enjoy a significant advantage over the Conservatives on the environment.

Democracy Online - Pushing the limits or creating a new frontier (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

There's no doubt that the Internet is having an impact on political discourse in Canada and around the world. In this 12 minute speech recently made in Montreal, I challenge some generally accepted assumptions. My sense is that the Internet is at this point more of a transactional than a transformative agent of change. See the video of my remarks in Montreal (12 minutes).

Liberal Green Shift - High Risk and Potentially High Reward (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The election battle lines have been drawn. Liberal Leader Stephane Dion wants to stake his political future on the environment. The release of his “Green Shift” policy represents a high risk and potentially high reward strategy. Many times, when Canadians look at a new policy proposal, the first thing they wonder is “what does this mean to me?” Watch my video analysis or select "read the full piece" to review my written analysis.

Nanos-Policy Options Poll - Immigration as Nation-building (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Nearly three Canadians in four in our poll thought attracting new immigrants was important or somewhat important, but even more Canadians, nearly 85 percent, thought it was important to select immigrants whose skills met the needs of Canada’s workforce. Watch the video for the full analysis or select "read the full piece" below to read more. The complete analysis and Policy Options article I wrote is on the right in the support materials box.

The Bernier Resignation - Is it more than political "eye candy"? (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 30 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The Bernier resignation has all the makings of a great media story. It featured a fallen star cabinet minister from Quebec, a good looking ex-girlfriend and alleged indirect connections to organized crime. No doubt this represents a major distraction for the Harper government. What should have been a good media week with the Prime Minister looking statesmanlike abroad was derailed. Is this just another media flash in the pan? My sense is that although it may result in a short term change it does not change our political environment.

The Economy - Political Opportunity and Minefield

Nik Nanos — Mon, 26 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Popular wisdom suggests that when voters get nervous about the economy, it's usually bad news for the incumbent government. The latest Nanos Research-Sun Media poll shows that Canadians are jittery about the economy. They think it will be weaker in the next six months, and that interest rates will rise. It seems Canadians are gloomier about the economy than the evidence suggests. However, one cannot underestimate the psychological impact of political leaders and the news on the public mood.

Leadership Tracking - Harper personal image untouched by controversy (Analysis with video)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 09 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest tracking from CPAC and Nanos Research indicates that regardless of recent controversies in the media faced by the Harper government, there has been no impact on the Prime Minister's personal image. However, an increasing number of Canadians are unsure or select "none of the above" when it comes to chosing the federal leader who is the strongest on trust, competence or vision. Stephen Harper continues to rate strongly on competence. Select read the full piece to watch the video with the stats and Nik's analysis.

The House Returns - Ethics, Accountability and the Big Picture (Nanos Sun Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

“The time for accountability has arrived.” That’s the very first sentence from Stephen Harper in the 2006 federal Conservative election platform. A combination of events – the right message (trust us) at the right time (RCMP criminal investigation) resulted in the Harper minority victory. Canadians were mad at the Liberals and were ready for change. Stephen Harper and the Conservatives were perceived as not only an alternative choice but an alternative approach to governing. Polling conducted by Nanos Research for CPAC during the election showed the Harper Tories strong on trust.

Federal Tories and Grits Tied - Are NDP voters in Ontario strategically parking with the Grits? (Nanos Poll completed April 9)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008. Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support in Ontario for the NDP is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments. For more written analysis...select...read the full piece.

Last week should have been a good week for the PM - he was sideswiped (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Last week was quite a week in federal politics in Canada. The PM's trip to Bucharest should have been the headline all week. He was on the world stage, looked statesmanlike, and managed to get Canada's allies to commit to troops in Kandahar. What should have been a very good week for the Prime Minister was sideswiped by Blackburn's comments on opening the Constitution and by homophobic comments made by a Saskatchewan MP 16 years ago. **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

The Federal Tories - Poking Ontario with a sharp stick (Sun Media Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Poking Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, with a sharp stick may not seem like a good way to form a majority government, but let’s take a closer look. The Harper Tories won the last federal election but lost the popular vote in Ontario. They have former Ontario Conservative cabinet ministers in senior federal portfolios. The federal tone directed at Ontario initially sounds like frustration with a province where the Harper Conservatives have not been able to move the dial. There have been, what some may call, the usual federal-provincial political tussles. However, the increasing importance of the economy as an issue, as detailed in the latest Nanos Research-Sun Media poll, and the Harper governments sustained attacks on the McGuinty government could be a strategy driven by political machination, not frustration.

Afghanistan Vote and the Issue Environment (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The House of Commons jumped yet another confidence motion hurdle - one on Afghanistan. It's not surprising that the Conservatives and the Liberals managed to broker an arrangement on this issue because there are inherent risks for both parties on this one. Indeed, they have a mutual interest in ensuring that Afghanistan is not "the" election issue. What's interesting is that as of last month only 7.5% of Canadians considered Afghanistan Canada's most important issue of concern, trailing healthcare, the environment and jobs. **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

What will be the impact of the Cadman affair? (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The ongoing saga of what Cadman may or may not have been offered for his vote continues to unfold. Because the Harper Conservative brand has been built on trust, it's imperative that the Tories manage this issue. Harper has gone on the offensive with his libel suit but the big question is - what will the RCMP do? **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

Election fraught with risks - Nanos Ballot - Lib 33, Con 31, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8

Nik Nanos — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The election decision currently lies in the hands of either Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion. Looking at the numbers, calling an election is fraught with risks for them both. Our latest tracking shows a statistical tie between the federal Liberals (33%) and the Conservatives (31%). And support for the Harper Conservatives has marginally slipped in the past 90 days. Conversely, the Layton New Democrats have slowly regained ground over the past three waves of Nanos tracking.

Too many election risks

Nik Nanos — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Get ready for a political roller-coaster ride in 2008. With Chalk River, the Schreiber Inquiry, a potential economic downturn, and Afghanistan providing numerous white-knuckle twists and turns. Considering the importance the Harper government places on message discipline and issue control, the only real conclusion is that the short-term likelihood of a federal election diminishes. There are simply too many risks.

Federal Political Year in Review - Challenges and Opportunities for 2008

Nik Nanos — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Sound and fury signifying nothing - that pretty well sums up the tough talk from the party leaders about having an election in 2007. Looking back, this is not a big surprise. According to the Nanos polls conducted with Sun Media throughout the year, the Conservatives and Liberals have, by and large, been deadlocked. What is striking about this deadlock is that it divides along gender lines. The Conservatives do well among men and the Liberals do well among women. For the Harper Conservatives there has been no momentum, no breakthrough – a majority mandate remained beyond the grasp of the Stephen Harper in 2007.

Canadians are remarkably optimistic (Nanos Mood of Canada Poll)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The first annual Nanos "Mood of Canada" Poll conducted in conjunction with Policy Options Magazine shows 65.8 percent of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while only 20.2 percent believe Canada is moving in the wrong direction, and 14 percent didn't know.

New Nanos Poll - Canadians moving away from all party leaders

Nik Nanos — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos Poll indicates that politicians in general may be the first casualties of the Schreiber Affair. The ongoing Nanos Federal Leadership Report Card Tracking indicates that Canadians are moving away from all party leaders into the "none of the above" or "unsure".

Latest Nanos Poll - Federal Deadlock - Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

Nik Nanos — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Earlier this week our research showed Stephen Harper with a commanding 24 point advantage over Stephane Dion on our best Prime Minister tracking. The same survey showed a deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberals in the ballot box.

Canadians Support PM/Dalai Lama Meeting - Tibetan Rights Trump Trade with China (SES Research Survey)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

On the issue of Tibet, research shows that faced with the choice between Tibetan human rights and trade with China, Canadians believe standing up for human rights is more important. Likewise, an overwhelming majority of Canadians support the Prime Minister meeting the Dalai Lama.

Speech from the Throne - Tories Continue "Leadership" Narrative

Nik Nanos — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The much anticipated Speech from the Throne has been released. No poison pill to be found. Looks like the spectre of an election is clearly in the hands of Stephane Dion and the Liberals. The Tory Throne Speech lays out the next round of priorities for the Harper Conservative government. Central to the priorities is a new round of personal and business tax cuts.

Canadians want limits on accommodating minorities - SES Research/Policy Options Survey

Nik Nanos — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

By significant majorities in Canada as a whole, and by overwhelming majorities in Quebec, Canadians and Quebecers declare limits to reasonable accommodation.

Duceppe Provokes Election Showdown

Nik Nanos — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Today is a day that I am surprised. This morning (Saturday September 22nd) BQ leader Gilles Duceppe laid out demands in exchange for supporting the October 16 throne speech. Here they are. * A clear commitment from the Conservatives to withdraw troops from Afghanistan when the mission ends in February 2009. * The elimination of all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions. * The government to respect the Kyoto Protocol. * The continuation of supply management in the agriculture sector. * Promises to help Quebec's battered forestry industry.

Reading the entrails of the Quebec By-elections

Nik Nanos — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Predicting the timing of the next federal election is a precarious undertaking. But there is one thing you can count on – the results of the federal by-elections in Quebec will be the best indicator of the likelihood of a federal election and also the tone of the upcoming federal sitting of the House of Commons this Fall.

Harper Tories Should Tread Carefully on Elections Canada Issue - Nik's Sun Media Column

Nik Nanos — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

A house built on trust. Those five words more than any others capture the basis on which the Harper government gained its minority victory. Canadians, and especially Quebecers, turned away from a tired Liberal government that was racked with allegations of impropriety as a result of the advertising and sponsorship scandal. The Conservative government has placed great emphasis on trust and ethics showcasing the Federal Accountability Act as its pledge to clean up government. As such, the emerging story from Elections Canada, which tracks the movement of funds between the central Tory campaign and local riding associations, should give the Harper Conservatives pause.

Green Party of Canada - Likely the Political Wildcard in the Next Election

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The Green Party of Canada is likely to be the big political wildcard in the next federal election. A look at the numbers reveals potential for the Greens. The environment as an issue is hot, hot, hot. To top things off, national support for the Greens is consistently trending above their traditional level.

Jack Layton & the NDP - The Minority Challenge

Nik Nanos — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Minority government should be a political gift for the Layton New Democrats. For a party like the NDP, it can’t get much better. It’s an opportunity to advocate, pressure and cajole governing parties. Call it what you will but it’s a chance for smaller parties to punch above their weight. In theory the stars should be aligning for Jack Layton and the NDP. We have a Conservative government that is quite short of majority in parliament, the Liberal Leader Stephane Dion is trailing his party, the war in Afghanistan continues to divide Canadians and the environment is simmering as an issue.

New SES Research Poll - Federal Tories and Grits Close - Harper Best PM Advantage Weakens

Nik Nanos — Tue, 14 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Today's federal cabinet shuffle is another attempt by the Harper Tories to break away from what has been a neck-and-neck race with the Liberals over the past year. The federal Tories and Grits are still close but the NDP numbers have slid in the past 90 days to 13% nationally - the lowest level of support for the NDP recorded by SES in almost three years. NDP support has slid in both Quebec (13% to 7%) and Ontario (19% to 12%). The Tories are ahead of the Grits by 17 points in the West, but trail the Grits by 7 points in Ontario and by 14 points in Atlantic Canada.

New ailment strikes leaders - Nik's Sun Media Column July 31, 2007

Nik Nanos — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

There's a new ailment to add to our Canadian political dictionary -- it's called "newleaderitis." Not usually lethal, but quite the political inconvenience.

Summer will be serious for PM - Nik's Sun Media Column July 16, 2007

Nik Nanos — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although kissing babies and flipping burgers is usually the first order of summer business for politicians in Canada, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper will likely be tending to other priorities. Topping that list is his quest to form a winning majority coalition among voters. The demands of governing and managing his caucus have truly complicated this quest.

Conservative NASCAR Sponsorship – Likely more risk than political payoff

Nik Nanos — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

As some of you may know, the Tories have recently sponsored a NASCAR racing vehicle. My view is that the symbol of the sponsorship appeals to the Conservative core vote but has little appeal beyond that. There are some that point to the growing number of women who follow NASCAR.

Bill Casey and Tory Political Brushfires

Nik Nanos — Sun, 10 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Bill Casey's musings and vote against the budget confidence motion are quite indicative of a broader challenge that the Harper Conservatives could face in the next election.

SES National Ballot Tracking (as of May 1) - Liberal-Conservative Dead Heat - Greens Up

Nik Nanos — Tue, 08 May 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The latest SES Research poll completed May 1st shows a drop in Conservative support and an increase in support for the Green Party. Nationally, the Liberals registered the support of 33% of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 17%, the Green Party at 10% and the BQ at 9%. One of the major shifts has occurred in Quebec with the Liberals picking up nine points and the Conservatives dropping 11 points.

New SES Research Poll - Canada's Mission in Afghanistan - Obstacle to Harper Majority

Nik Nanos — Sun, 06 May 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although some may consider this a black and white issue, the reality from a public opinion viewpoint is that we are looking at shades of grey. Generally, Canadians are divided on the government's handling of the mission (44% agree with how the mission is being handled, 48% disagree the rest were unsure). However, 55% of Canadians believe that Canada and NATO together have not deployed the resources necessary to succeed.

New SES Research Poll - BQ supporters would Tilt to Tories and NDP

Nik Nanos — Tue, 17 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

With the drop in PQ support in Quebec and the poor performance of PQ Leader Andre Boisclair we may be seeing changes in Quebec. What would happen to BQ support if, for example, Gilles Duceppe left the party to seek the PQ leadership? What would happen if BQ support dropped significantly? To that end, SES added an extra question to its latest omnibus survey. Quite simply, we asked committed BQ supporters who they would vote for federally if the BQ did not exist.

SES Research Poll - Comfort with Harper Majority - Support/Opposition to Election Call

Nik Nanos — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

No major national shift occured in the number of Canadians comfortable or somewhat comfortable with a Harper majority government over the past 60 days. However in the province of Quebec the number of Quebecers who said they were comfortable or somewhat comfortable with a Stephen Harper-led Conservative majority has risen from 48% in February 2007 to 61% in the latest wave of research.

SES Research Poll - Best PM - Harper 42%, Dion 17%, Layton 16%

Nik Nanos — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although the Conservatives are short of the committed support necessary to form a majority government, Stephen Harper has a clear advantage over Liberal Leader Stephan Dion. Forty-two percent of Canadians choose Harper as the best PM followed by Dion at 17%, Layton at 16%, Duceppe at 7% and Elizabeth May at 4% (the rest chose none of the above or were unsure). At this point in time Stephen Harper personally may be in majority territory but his party is not.

Federal Grits Drop in Quebec – Tories Still Short of Majority

Nik Nanos — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.

New SES Research Poll - Likely Impact of Federal Budget on Harper and Charest in Quebec

Nik Nanos — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

As you know, many of the main details of the federal budget have already been in the public domain. Last Wednesday and Thursday, SES surveyed 500 Quebecers on the image impact on Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Premier Jean Charest. Please view the detailed stat sheet in the Support Materials box on the right.

SES Quebec Provincial Election Poll in Sunday's La Presse

Nik Nanos — Sat, 17 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The results of the Quebec provincial election will have reverberations outside of Quebec. I believe they will impact the timing of the next federal election but more importantly we may see a shift in the provincial landscape. At SES, we wanted to provide Canadians a glimpse into the Quebec election. Here it is.

Nuclear Power - Is it part of our future or past?

Nik Nanos — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Canadians have witnessed brown-outs, black outs and rising electricity costs. Each region has taken a different approach to meeting its energy needs. For example, Quebec ventured into hydro-electric energy, Ontario into nuclear energy and provinces like Alberta focused on coal generated electricity.

The Green Party: Political Force or Political Phantom?

Nik Nanos — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 05:00:00 GMT

As one takes a look forward, the Green Party represents one of the true political wildcards on Canada's national political landscape. A combination of factors have played to the advantage of the Greens - they've elected a new leader (Elizabeth May) and the environment is on the political radar more among average Canadians.

SES-University at Buffalo Poll of Canadians and Americans - Americans Keen on Co-operation with Canada

Nik Nanos — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

A new cross-border survey of Canadians and Americans released by SES Research today found Americans are very supportive of greater co-operation with Canada on issues ranging from an integrated energy policy through to border security and anti-terrorism measures.

Influence of Quebec Provincial Election

Nik Nanos — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

My sense is that the imminent provincial election in Quebec will likely have a major impact on the timing of the next federal election. As Jean Charest takes Quebecers to the polls - one of the key factors to watch will be the performance of the PQ.

Harper Scores on CPAC-SES Leadership Report Card

Nik Nanos — Mon, 12 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

As you might remember, in the last federal election, the nightly CPAC-SES tracking included leadership measures (trust, competence and vision). One year later, SES and CPAC have completed a follow up leadership evaluation.

Federal Dead Heat - SES Research Poll Completed February 8

Nik Nanos — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

According to the latest SES Research poll completed last evening we are looking at a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals nationally. Some regional shifts have occurred in the past 90 days.

Watch, Rate and Comment on the New Conservative TV Ads which Attack the Liberals

Nik Nanos — Wed, 31 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

When every party claims not to want an election....that's when Canadians should get nervous about going back to the polls. Regardless of the "no campaign" rhetoric, the Conservatives have launched a series of ads targetting the Liberals and their new leader Stephane Dion.

Wajid Khan and Changing Political Stripes

Nik Nanos — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

For the past few years Canada has been the land of the shifting political sands. We've had the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. We've had defections from the new Conservatives to the Liberals (Stronach, Brison, K. Martin). We've even had a former Liberal cabinet minister - Emerson, get elected as a Liberal and then change parties after the election and become a Conservative cabinet minister.

Environment as an Issue - Is it over-hyped?

Nik Nanos — Mon, 08 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

There has been quite a bit of chatter on the environment since the selection of Stephane Dion as the Liberal Leader and Elizabeth May as the Green Party leader. After our most popular national past-time - hockey - the next greatest obsession among Canadians is the weather. Add a green Christmas to the mix and the environment is on the public radar more.

Harper Cabinet Recalibration - Will it make a difference?

Nik Nanos — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

After weeks of speculation the federal cabinet shuffle has finally occurred. There are a couple of issues related to the shuffle which I think are interesting. First, Rona Ambrose is being shuffled not because of any major mistake or indiscretion but basically because the Prime Minister was not satisfied with the progress being made on the environment file.

National Political Scene - Year in Review - What are your predictions for 2007?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 27 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

2006 has certainly been a tumultuous year in Canadian politics. A year ago this week we were in the midst of a federal election campaign and the RCMP announced a criminal investigation in the advertising scandal. This, combined with voter fatigue with the Liberals, a weak Liberal campaign and a well-run Conservative campaign led to a Harper minority government.

Wheat Board President Fired

Nik Nanos — Wed, 20 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

This Tuesday Agriculture Minister Chuck Strahl fired Canadian Wheat Board President and CEO Adrian Measner. Measner was opposed to the Harper Conservative moving to end the Canadian Wheat Board's monopoly on the sale of western wheat and barley.

Ontario Provincial Liberals Lead by Seven Points – Underlying Stats Provide Cold Comfort for Liberals

Nik Nanos — Sun, 17 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The McGuinty Liberals should not take too much comfort in their seven point lead over the Tory PCs. Looking at the underlying numbers, Ontarians are split as to whether the province is going in the right direction (38%) or on the wrong track (39%). One half of Ontarians (51%) describe the McGuinty performance as Premier as “average”.

Should RCMP Commissioner Stay or Go?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The last few years have been quite turbulent for the RCMP. There have been a number of high profile cases that have "gone astray"....so to speak...such as the Airbus and Arar affairs. If you remember, during the last election, his blockbuster announcement related to the sponsorship scandal had a major impact on the political landscape.

If you were a Liberal Delegate who would you support?

Nik Nanos — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

In Canada, a delegated convention is about as close as we come to a blood sport. Last night the candidates made their speeches. From feedback on the blog and my view Bob Rae gave the most polished speech, Kennedy the most inspirational, Dryden the most passionate. Also, Martha Hall-Findlay should be recognized for doing a good job last night. The first move of the campaign is Volpe to Rae (right after the speeches).

Impact of new Liberal Leader Stephane Dion

Nik Nanos — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Stephane Dion goes from a third place finish on the first ballot (only 2 votes ahead of Gerard Kennedy from a total of 4,815 votes cast) to capture the Liberal leadership on the fourth ballot. Does this change or not change the political landscape?

Who has the best chance to defeat Stephen Harper?

Nik Nanos — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Many of these leaderships are about picking the leader who delegates think will win the most number of seats in the next federal election. Based on what you have seen so far....if you had to choose....which candidate do you think has the best chance to defeat Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election.

It's Speech Night.

Nik Nanos — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Candidate speeches start in minutes. I will be on CPAC tonight watching the candidate speeches and providing commentary along with Peter Van Dusen. I'd like to hear everyone's comments on the speeches as they roll out.

What is the Paul Martin Legacy?

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Tonight the Liberal Party of Canada pays tribute to former Prime Minister Paul Martin. He was the PM-in-waiting for a number of years, was successful as the Minister of Finance and inherited the mantle of leader from Jean Chretien when the the Liberals were riding high in the polls and had a majority government. Back in early 2004, the Liberals enjoyed a whopping 25 point lead (Lib 48%, Combined CA/PC 23%).

Liberals Defeat One-member One-vote

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Minutes ago delegates at the Liberal Party Convention defeated a motion proposed by the Red Ribbon Committee to have a one-member one-vote system to elect party leaders. The supporting and opposing forces were passionate in their views. The motion which required two thirds approval was defeated 318 votes (opposed) to 299 votes (in favour).

Liberals Withdraw 'Quebec as a Nation' Motion

Nik Nanos — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The day prior to the Liberal Party convention, the controversial motion to symbolically recognize Quebec as a nation was withdrawn by the proposers. Polling conducted by SES shows that this issue is dangerous ground for the Liberals. On the one hand Canadians outside of Quebec said they would be less likely to vote Liberal if they adopted the motion.

Changing Liberal Party Governance - Will it make a difference?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

We asked Canadians about the importance or unimportance of the Liberals changing the way they govern themselves and 77% said it was important/somewhat important. Among committed Liberal voters this increases to 86%.

What Canadians like and dislike about the Liberal Party of Canada

Nik Nanos — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

SES asked Canadians to describe in their own words what they liked and disliked about the Liberal Party of Canada (see detailed stats in Support Materials on right). The most popular ‘like’ was ‘like nothing’ followed by ‘policies’,’ they are about as good as any other party’ and that ‘they are an alternative’. But check out the negatives....corruption/scandal tops the list.

Quebec as a Nation - Dangerous Ground

Nik Nanos — Wed, 22 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

First Michael Ignatieff....and now the Prime Minister wades in on Quebec as a nation. If you are a federalist voter in Quebec you really have to be scratching your head this morning. The Conservative Prime Minister from Alberta now clearly recognizes Quebec as a "nation within Canada". The Liberals are looking and recognizing Quebec as a "nation" in some form. The NDP would recognized Quebec as a "nation". What the Prime Minister has done is validate Gilles Duceppe. Duceppe can now take his partial victory and ask for more....thus increasing his relevancy in Quebec.

Federal Tories-Grits Statistically Tied - Tory Turbulence in Quebec

Nik Nanos — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Taking a look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). SES’ polling has shown that when the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but that the focus on Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush has noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.