LP 35, CP 33, NDP 17, BQ 8, GP 7 - Harper leads as best PM (New Nanos Poll)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos poll completed Wednesday night shows that the Liberals and Conservatives are gripped in a deadlock (LP 35%, CP 33%, NDP 17%, BQ 8%, GP 7%). Of note, in the province of Quebec, support for the Bloc has decreased by nine points in the last quarter, with the NDP picking up most of that support. On the best Prime Minister front, Stephen Harper still enjoys a significant advantage over Stephane Dion. A potential election poses risks for both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Prime Minister Harper seems ready to risk his mandate while his party is tied with the Liberals. Liberal leader Stephane Dion has not been embraced by Canadians.

Time for federal politicians to refocus (Nanos Sun Media Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Given the chance, I think many Canadians would welcome the opportunity to give their elected representatives a political spanking. Whether it’s the advertising and sponsorship scandal under the federal Liberals, the Elections Canada investigation into Conservative election expenses or a host of other political shenanigans, the overall impact of these goings on is to make the Canadians “change the channel” away from Canada’s national political scene. And why not?

Both Harper and Dion face greater risks than their rhetoric suggests (Nanos Sun Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Not long into the Harper mandate, it was evident that the “phoney war” was on. The Tories would repeatedly throw down the election gauntlet and the Dion Liberals would blink, and blink and blink again. The Conservatives were generous in identifying legislation as matters of confidence and Canada was almost perpetually on the brink of a federal election. Liberal parliamentary contortions in the House of Commons have kept the Harper Conservative government alive longer than many expected. An outside look at the pattern of behaviour might lead one to conclude that the Conservatives have a strong upper hand. A look at the polling, however, shows a political reality different from the dynamic in the House of Commons.

Who Canadians trust on the issues (New Nanos National Poll)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

This month's Nanos national poll on who Canadians trust on the issues indicates that the Conservatives lead for trust on jobs and the economy and the War in Afghanistan. The poll shows a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives for trust on the enviroment. Of note, even with the launch of the Liberal "Green Shift Plan" the Liberals did not enjoy a significant advantage over the Conservatives on the environment.

Democracy Online - Pushing the limits or creating a new frontier (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

There's no doubt that the Internet is having an impact on political discourse in Canada and around the world. In this 12 minute speech recently made in Montreal, I challenge some generally accepted assumptions. My sense is that the Internet is at this point more of a transactional than a transformative agent of change. See the video of my remarks in Montreal (12 minutes).

Liberal Green Shift - High Risk and Potentially High Reward (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The election battle lines have been drawn. Liberal Leader Stephane Dion wants to stake his political future on the environment. The release of his “Green Shift” policy represents a high risk and potentially high reward strategy. Many times, when Canadians look at a new policy proposal, the first thing they wonder is “what does this mean to me?” Watch my video analysis or select "read the full piece" to review my written analysis.

Nanos-Policy Options Poll - Immigration as Nation-building (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Nearly three Canadians in four in our poll thought attracting new immigrants was important or somewhat important, but even more Canadians, nearly 85 percent, thought it was important to select immigrants whose skills met the needs of Canada’s workforce. Watch the video for the full analysis or select "read the full piece" below to read more. The complete analysis and Policy Options article I wrote is on the right in the support materials box.

The Bernier Resignation - Is it more than political "eye candy"? (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 30 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The Bernier resignation has all the makings of a great media story. It featured a fallen star cabinet minister from Quebec, a good looking ex-girlfriend and alleged indirect connections to organized crime. No doubt this represents a major distraction for the Harper government. What should have been a good media week with the Prime Minister looking statesmanlike abroad was derailed. Is this just another media flash in the pan? My sense is that although it may result in a short term change it does not change our political environment.

The Economy - Political Opportunity and Minefield

Nik Nanos — Mon, 26 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Popular wisdom suggests that when voters get nervous about the economy, it's usually bad news for the incumbent government. The latest Nanos Research-Sun Media poll shows that Canadians are jittery about the economy. They think it will be weaker in the next six months, and that interest rates will rise. It seems Canadians are gloomier about the economy than the evidence suggests. However, one cannot underestimate the psychological impact of political leaders and the news on the public mood.

Leadership Tracking - Harper personal image untouched by controversy (Analysis with video)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 09 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The latest tracking from CPAC and Nanos Research indicates that regardless of recent controversies in the media faced by the Harper government, there has been no impact on the Prime Minister's personal image. However, an increasing number of Canadians are unsure or select "none of the above" when it comes to chosing the federal leader who is the strongest on trust, competence or vision. Stephen Harper continues to rate strongly on competence. Select read the full piece to watch the video with the stats and Nik's analysis.

The House Returns - Ethics, Accountability and the Big Picture (Nanos Sun Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

“The time for accountability has arrived.” That’s the very first sentence from Stephen Harper in the 2006 federal Conservative election platform. A combination of events – the right message (trust us) at the right time (RCMP criminal investigation) resulted in the Harper minority victory. Canadians were mad at the Liberals and were ready for change. Stephen Harper and the Conservatives were perceived as not only an alternative choice but an alternative approach to governing. Polling conducted by Nanos Research for CPAC during the election showed the Harper Tories strong on trust.

Federal Tories and Grits Tied - Are NDP voters in Ontario strategically parking with the Grits? (Nanos Poll completed April 9)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The federal Tories and Liberals continue their neck-and-neck race in the latest Nanos tracking poll completed April 9th, 2008. Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support in Ontario for the NDP is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments. For more written analysis...select...read the full piece.

Last week should have been a good week for the PM - he was sideswiped (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Last week was quite a week in federal politics in Canada. The PM's trip to Bucharest should have been the headline all week. He was on the world stage, looked statesmanlike, and managed to get Canada's allies to commit to troops in Kandahar. What should have been a very good week for the Prime Minister was sideswiped by Blackburn's comments on opening the Constitution and by homophobic comments made by a Saskatchewan MP 16 years ago. **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

The Federal Tories - Poking Ontario with a sharp stick (Sun Media Column)

Nik Nanos — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Poking Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, with a sharp stick may not seem like a good way to form a majority government, but let’s take a closer look. The Harper Tories won the last federal election but lost the popular vote in Ontario. They have former Ontario Conservative cabinet ministers in senior federal portfolios. The federal tone directed at Ontario initially sounds like frustration with a province where the Harper Conservatives have not been able to move the dial. There have been, what some may call, the usual federal-provincial political tussles. However, the increasing importance of the economy as an issue, as detailed in the latest Nanos Research-Sun Media poll, and the Harper governments sustained attacks on the McGuinty government could be a strategy driven by political machination, not frustration.

Afghanistan Vote and the Issue Environment (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The House of Commons jumped yet another confidence motion hurdle - one on Afghanistan. It's not surprising that the Conservatives and the Liberals managed to broker an arrangement on this issue because there are inherent risks for both parties on this one. Indeed, they have a mutual interest in ensuring that Afghanistan is not "the" election issue. What's interesting is that as of last month only 7.5% of Canadians considered Afghanistan Canada's most important issue of concern, trailing healthcare, the environment and jobs. **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

What will be the impact of the Cadman affair? (Video Blog Post)

Nik Nanos — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The ongoing saga of what Cadman may or may not have been offered for his vote continues to unfold. Because the Harper Conservative brand has been built on trust, it's imperative that the Tories manage this issue. Harper has gone on the offensive with his libel suit but the big question is - what will the RCMP do? **Select read the full piece to watch my new video blog posting for more analysis.**

Election fraught with risks - Nanos Ballot - Lib 33, Con 31, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8

Nik Nanos — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The election decision currently lies in the hands of either Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion. Looking at the numbers, calling an election is fraught with risks for them both. Our latest tracking shows a statistical tie between the federal Liberals (33%) and the Conservatives (31%). And support for the Harper Conservatives has marginally slipped in the past 90 days. Conversely, the Layton New Democrats have slowly regained ground over the past three waves of Nanos tracking.

Too many election risks

Nik Nanos — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Get ready for a political roller-coaster ride in 2008. With Chalk River, the Schreiber Inquiry, a potential economic downturn, and Afghanistan providing numerous white-knuckle twists and turns. Considering the importance the Harper government places on message discipline and issue control, the only real conclusion is that the short-term likelihood of a federal election diminishes. There are simply too many risks.

Federal Political Year in Review - Challenges and Opportunities for 2008

Nik Nanos — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Sound and fury signifying nothing - that pretty well sums up the tough talk from the party leaders about having an election in 2007. Looking back, this is not a big surprise. According to the Nanos polls conducted with Sun Media throughout the year, the Conservatives and Liberals have, by and large, been deadlocked. What is striking about this deadlock is that it divides along gender lines. The Conservatives do well among men and the Liberals do well among women. For the Harper Conservatives there has been no momentum, no breakthrough – a majority mandate remained beyond the grasp of the Stephen Harper in 2007.

Canadians are remarkably optimistic (Nanos Mood of Canada Poll)

Nik Nanos — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The first annual Nanos "Mood of Canada" Poll conducted in conjunction with Policy Options Magazine shows 65.8 percent of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while only 20.2 percent believe Canada is moving in the wrong direction, and 14 percent didn't know.

New Nanos Poll - Canadians moving away from all party leaders

Nik Nanos — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The latest Nanos Poll indicates that politicians in general may be the first casualties of the Schreiber Affair. The ongoing Nanos Federal Leadership Report Card Tracking indicates that Canadians are moving away from all party leaders into the "none of the above" or "unsure".

Latest Nanos Poll - Federal Deadlock - Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

Nik Nanos — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Earlier this week our research showed Stephen Harper with a commanding 24 point advantage over Stephane Dion on our best Prime Minister tracking. The same survey showed a deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberals in the ballot box.

Canadians Support PM/Dalai Lama Meeting - Tibetan Rights Trump Trade with China (SES Research Survey)

Nik Nanos — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

On the issue of Tibet, research shows that faced with the choice between Tibetan human rights and trade with China, Canadians believe standing up for human rights is more important. Likewise, an overwhelming majority of Canadians support the Prime Minister meeting the Dalai Lama.

Speech from the Throne - Tories Continue "Leadership" Narrative

Nik Nanos — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The much anticipated Speech from the Throne has been released. No poison pill to be found. Looks like the spectre of an election is clearly in the hands of Stephane Dion and the Liberals. The Tory Throne Speech lays out the next round of priorities for the Harper Conservative government. Central to the priorities is a new round of personal and business tax cuts.

Canadians want limits on accommodating minorities - SES Research/Policy Options Survey

Nik Nanos — Tue, 25 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

By significant majorities in Canada as a whole, and by overwhelming majorities in Quebec, Canadians and Quebecers declare limits to reasonable accommodation.

Duceppe Provokes Election Showdown

Nik Nanos — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Today is a day that I am surprised. This morning (Saturday September 22nd) BQ leader Gilles Duceppe laid out demands in exchange for supporting the October 16 throne speech. Here they are. * A clear commitment from the Conservatives to withdraw troops from Afghanistan when the mission ends in February 2009. * The elimination of all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions. * The government to respect the Kyoto Protocol. * The continuation of supply management in the agriculture sector. * Promises to help Quebec's battered forestry industry.

Reading the entrails of the Quebec By-elections

Nik Nanos — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Predicting the timing of the next federal election is a precarious undertaking. But there is one thing you can count on – the results of the federal by-elections in Quebec will be the best indicator of the likelihood of a federal election and also the tone of the upcoming federal sitting of the House of Commons this Fall.

Harper Tories Should Tread Carefully on Elections Canada Issue - Nik's Sun Media Column

Nik Nanos — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

A house built on trust. Those five words more than any others capture the basis on which the Harper government gained its minority victory. Canadians, and especially Quebecers, turned away from a tired Liberal government that was racked with allegations of impropriety as a result of the advertising and sponsorship scandal. The Conservative government has placed great emphasis on trust and ethics showcasing the Federal Accountability Act as its pledge to clean up government. As such, the emerging story from Elections Canada, which tracks the movement of funds between the central Tory campaign and local riding associations, should give the Harper Conservatives pause.

Green Party of Canada - Likely the Political Wildcard in the Next Election

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The Green Party of Canada is likely to be the big political wildcard in the next federal election. A look at the numbers reveals potential for the Greens. The environment as an issue is hot, hot, hot. To top things off, national support for the Greens is consistently trending above their traditional level.

Jack Layton & the NDP - The Minority Challenge

Nik Nanos — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Minority government should be a political gift for the Layton New Democrats. For a party like the NDP, it can’t get much better. It’s an opportunity to advocate, pressure and cajole governing parties. Call it what you will but it’s a chance for smaller parties to punch above their weight. In theory the stars should be aligning for Jack Layton and the NDP. We have a Conservative government that is quite short of majority in parliament, the Liberal Leader Stephane Dion is trailing his party, the war in Afghanistan continues to divide Canadians and the environment is simmering as an issue.

New SES Research Poll - Federal Tories and Grits Close - Harper Best PM Advantage Weakens

Nik Nanos — Tue, 14 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Today's federal cabinet shuffle is another attempt by the Harper Tories to break away from what has been a neck-and-neck race with the Liberals over the past year. The federal Tories and Grits are still close but the NDP numbers have slid in the past 90 days to 13% nationally - the lowest level of support for the NDP recorded by SES in almost three years. NDP support has slid in both Quebec (13% to 7%) and Ontario (19% to 12%). The Tories are ahead of the Grits by 17 points in the West, but trail the Grits by 7 points in Ontario and by 14 points in Atlantic Canada.

New ailment strikes leaders - Nik's Sun Media Column July 31, 2007

Nik Nanos — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

There's a new ailment to add to our Canadian political dictionary -- it's called "newleaderitis." Not usually lethal, but quite the political inconvenience.

Summer will be serious for PM - Nik's Sun Media Column July 16, 2007

Nik Nanos — Mon, 16 Jul 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although kissing babies and flipping burgers is usually the first order of summer business for politicians in Canada, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper will likely be tending to other priorities. Topping that list is his quest to form a winning majority coalition among voters. The demands of governing and managing his caucus have truly complicated this quest.

Conservative NASCAR Sponsorship – Likely more risk than political payoff

Nik Nanos — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

As some of you may know, the Tories have recently sponsored a NASCAR racing vehicle. My view is that the symbol of the sponsorship appeals to the Conservative core vote but has little appeal beyond that. There are some that point to the growing number of women who follow NASCAR.

Bill Casey and Tory Political Brushfires

Nik Nanos — Sun, 10 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Bill Casey's musings and vote against the budget confidence motion are quite indicative of a broader challenge that the Harper Conservatives could face in the next election.

SES National Ballot Tracking (as of May 1) - Liberal-Conservative Dead Heat - Greens Up

Nik Nanos — Tue, 08 May 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The latest SES Research poll completed May 1st shows a drop in Conservative support and an increase in support for the Green Party. Nationally, the Liberals registered the support of 33% of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 17%, the Green Party at 10% and the BQ at 9%. One of the major shifts has occurred in Quebec with the Liberals picking up nine points and the Conservatives dropping 11 points.

New SES Research Poll - Canada's Mission in Afghanistan - Obstacle to Harper Majority

Nik Nanos — Sun, 06 May 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although some may consider this a black and white issue, the reality from a public opinion viewpoint is that we are looking at shades of grey. Generally, Canadians are divided on the government's handling of the mission (44% agree with how the mission is being handled, 48% disagree the rest were unsure). However, 55% of Canadians believe that Canada and NATO together have not deployed the resources necessary to succeed.

New SES Research Poll - BQ supporters would Tilt to Tories and NDP

Nik Nanos — Tue, 17 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

With the drop in PQ support in Quebec and the poor performance of PQ Leader Andre Boisclair we may be seeing changes in Quebec. What would happen to BQ support if, for example, Gilles Duceppe left the party to seek the PQ leadership? What would happen if BQ support dropped significantly? To that end, SES added an extra question to its latest omnibus survey. Quite simply, we asked committed BQ supporters who they would vote for federally if the BQ did not exist.

SES Research Poll - Comfort with Harper Majority - Support/Opposition to Election Call

Nik Nanos — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

No major national shift occured in the number of Canadians comfortable or somewhat comfortable with a Harper majority government over the past 60 days. However in the province of Quebec the number of Quebecers who said they were comfortable or somewhat comfortable with a Stephen Harper-led Conservative majority has risen from 48% in February 2007 to 61% in the latest wave of research.

SES Research Poll - Best PM - Harper 42%, Dion 17%, Layton 16%

Nik Nanos — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Although the Conservatives are short of the committed support necessary to form a majority government, Stephen Harper has a clear advantage over Liberal Leader Stephan Dion. Forty-two percent of Canadians choose Harper as the best PM followed by Dion at 17%, Layton at 16%, Duceppe at 7% and Elizabeth May at 4% (the rest chose none of the above or were unsure). At this point in time Stephen Harper personally may be in majority territory but his party is not.

Federal Grits Drop in Quebec – Tories Still Short of Majority

Nik Nanos — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.

New SES Research Poll - Likely Impact of Federal Budget on Harper and Charest in Quebec

Nik Nanos — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

As you know, many of the main details of the federal budget have already been in the public domain. Last Wednesday and Thursday, SES surveyed 500 Quebecers on the image impact on Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Premier Jean Charest. Please view the detailed stat sheet in the Support Materials box on the right.

SES Quebec Provincial Election Poll in Sunday's La Presse

Nik Nanos — Sat, 17 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The results of the Quebec provincial election will have reverberations outside of Quebec. I believe they will impact the timing of the next federal election but more importantly we may see a shift in the provincial landscape. At SES, we wanted to provide Canadians a glimpse into the Quebec election. Here it is.

Nuclear Power - Is it part of our future or past?

Nik Nanos — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 05:00:00 GMT

Canadians have witnessed brown-outs, black outs and rising electricity costs. Each region has taken a different approach to meeting its energy needs. For example, Quebec ventured into hydro-electric energy, Ontario into nuclear energy and provinces like Alberta focused on coal generated electricity.

The Green Party: Political Force or Political Phantom?

Nik Nanos — Sun, 04 Mar 2007 05:00:00 GMT

As one takes a look forward, the Green Party represents one of the true political wildcards on Canada's national political landscape. A combination of factors have played to the advantage of the Greens - they've elected a new leader (Elizabeth May) and the environment is on the political radar more among average Canadians.

SES-University at Buffalo Poll of Canadians and Americans - Americans Keen on Co-operation with Canada

Nik Nanos — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

A new cross-border survey of Canadians and Americans released by SES Research today found Americans are very supportive of greater co-operation with Canada on issues ranging from an integrated energy policy through to border security and anti-terrorism measures.

Influence of Quebec Provincial Election

Nik Nanos — Tue, 20 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

My sense is that the imminent provincial election in Quebec will likely have a major impact on the timing of the next federal election. As Jean Charest takes Quebecers to the polls - one of the key factors to watch will be the performance of the PQ.

Harper Scores on CPAC-SES Leadership Report Card

Nik Nanos — Mon, 12 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

As you might remember, in the last federal election, the nightly CPAC-SES tracking included leadership measures (trust, competence and vision). One year later, SES and CPAC have completed a follow up leadership evaluation.

Federal Dead Heat - SES Research Poll Completed February 8

Nik Nanos — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 05:00:00 GMT

According to the latest SES Research poll completed last evening we are looking at a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals nationally. Some regional shifts have occurred in the past 90 days.

Watch, Rate and Comment on the New Conservative TV Ads which Attack the Liberals

Nik Nanos — Wed, 31 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

When every party claims not to want an election....that's when Canadians should get nervous about going back to the polls. Regardless of the "no campaign" rhetoric, the Conservatives have launched a series of ads targetting the Liberals and their new leader Stephane Dion.

Wajid Khan and Changing Political Stripes

Nik Nanos — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

For the past few years Canada has been the land of the shifting political sands. We've had the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. We've had defections from the new Conservatives to the Liberals (Stronach, Brison, K. Martin). We've even had a former Liberal cabinet minister - Emerson, get elected as a Liberal and then change parties after the election and become a Conservative cabinet minister.

Environment as an Issue - Is it over-hyped?

Nik Nanos — Mon, 08 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

There has been quite a bit of chatter on the environment since the selection of Stephane Dion as the Liberal Leader and Elizabeth May as the Green Party leader. After our most popular national past-time - hockey - the next greatest obsession among Canadians is the weather. Add a green Christmas to the mix and the environment is on the public radar more.

Harper Cabinet Recalibration - Will it make a difference?

Nik Nanos — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 05:00:00 GMT

After weeks of speculation the federal cabinet shuffle has finally occurred. There are a couple of issues related to the shuffle which I think are interesting. First, Rona Ambrose is being shuffled not because of any major mistake or indiscretion but basically because the Prime Minister was not satisfied with the progress being made on the environment file.

National Political Scene - Year in Review - What are your predictions for 2007?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 27 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

2006 has certainly been a tumultuous year in Canadian politics. A year ago this week we were in the midst of a federal election campaign and the RCMP announced a criminal investigation in the advertising scandal. This, combined with voter fatigue with the Liberals, a weak Liberal campaign and a well-run Conservative campaign led to a Harper minority government.

Wheat Board President Fired

Nik Nanos — Wed, 20 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

This Tuesday Agriculture Minister Chuck Strahl fired Canadian Wheat Board President and CEO Adrian Measner. Measner was opposed to the Harper Conservative moving to end the Canadian Wheat Board's monopoly on the sale of western wheat and barley.

Ontario Provincial Liberals Lead by Seven Points – Underlying Stats Provide Cold Comfort for Liberals

Nik Nanos — Sun, 17 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The McGuinty Liberals should not take too much comfort in their seven point lead over the Tory PCs. Looking at the underlying numbers, Ontarians are split as to whether the province is going in the right direction (38%) or on the wrong track (39%). One half of Ontarians (51%) describe the McGuinty performance as Premier as “average”.

Should RCMP Commissioner Stay or Go?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The last few years have been quite turbulent for the RCMP. There have been a number of high profile cases that have "gone astray"....so to speak...such as the Airbus and Arar affairs. If you remember, during the last election, his blockbuster announcement related to the sponsorship scandal had a major impact on the political landscape.

If you were a Liberal Delegate who would you support?

Nik Nanos — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

In Canada, a delegated convention is about as close as we come to a blood sport. Last night the candidates made their speeches. From feedback on the blog and my view Bob Rae gave the most polished speech, Kennedy the most inspirational, Dryden the most passionate. Also, Martha Hall-Findlay should be recognized for doing a good job last night. The first move of the campaign is Volpe to Rae (right after the speeches).

Impact of new Liberal Leader Stephane Dion

Nik Nanos — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Stephane Dion goes from a third place finish on the first ballot (only 2 votes ahead of Gerard Kennedy from a total of 4,815 votes cast) to capture the Liberal leadership on the fourth ballot. Does this change or not change the political landscape?

Who has the best chance to defeat Stephen Harper?

Nik Nanos — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Many of these leaderships are about picking the leader who delegates think will win the most number of seats in the next federal election. Based on what you have seen so far....if you had to choose....which candidate do you think has the best chance to defeat Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election.

It's Speech Night.

Nik Nanos — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Candidate speeches start in minutes. I will be on CPAC tonight watching the candidate speeches and providing commentary along with Peter Van Dusen. I'd like to hear everyone's comments on the speeches as they roll out.

What is the Paul Martin Legacy?

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Tonight the Liberal Party of Canada pays tribute to former Prime Minister Paul Martin. He was the PM-in-waiting for a number of years, was successful as the Minister of Finance and inherited the mantle of leader from Jean Chretien when the the Liberals were riding high in the polls and had a majority government. Back in early 2004, the Liberals enjoyed a whopping 25 point lead (Lib 48%, Combined CA/PC 23%).

Liberals Defeat One-member One-vote

Nik Nanos — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Minutes ago delegates at the Liberal Party Convention defeated a motion proposed by the Red Ribbon Committee to have a one-member one-vote system to elect party leaders. The supporting and opposing forces were passionate in their views. The motion which required two thirds approval was defeated 318 votes (opposed) to 299 votes (in favour).

Liberals Withdraw 'Quebec as a Nation' Motion

Nik Nanos — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

The day prior to the Liberal Party convention, the controversial motion to symbolically recognize Quebec as a nation was withdrawn by the proposers. Polling conducted by SES shows that this issue is dangerous ground for the Liberals. On the one hand Canadians outside of Quebec said they would be less likely to vote Liberal if they adopted the motion.

Changing Liberal Party Governance - Will it make a difference?

Nik Nanos — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

We asked Canadians about the importance or unimportance of the Liberals changing the way they govern themselves and 77% said it was important/somewhat important. Among committed Liberal voters this increases to 86%.

What Canadians like and dislike about the Liberal Party of Canada

Nik Nanos — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

SES asked Canadians to describe in their own words what they liked and disliked about the Liberal Party of Canada (see detailed stats in Support Materials on right). The most popular ‘like’ was ‘like nothing’ followed by ‘policies’,’ they are about as good as any other party’ and that ‘they are an alternative’. But check out the negatives....corruption/scandal tops the list.

Quebec as a Nation - Dangerous Ground

Nik Nanos — Wed, 22 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

First Michael Ignatieff....and now the Prime Minister wades in on Quebec as a nation. If you are a federalist voter in Quebec you really have to be scratching your head this morning. The Conservative Prime Minister from Alberta now clearly recognizes Quebec as a "nation within Canada". The Liberals are looking and recognizing Quebec as a "nation" in some form. The NDP would recognized Quebec as a "nation". What the Prime Minister has done is validate Gilles Duceppe. Duceppe can now take his partial victory and ask for more....thus increasing his relevancy in Quebec.

Federal Tories-Grits Statistically Tied - Tory Turbulence in Quebec

Nik Nanos — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 05:00:00 GMT

Taking a look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). SES’ polling has shown that when the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but that the focus on Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush has noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.