christine

A member since September 24, 2008 15:47

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Comment History

CPAC-Nanos Election Tracking CP 34.2, LP 26.7, NDP 21.4, BQ 9.5, GP 8.2 (ending October 12) (2008-10-13)

• There will be no majority with these numbers. In fact, the results are likely to be very similar to 2006. Plugging in the latest Nanos numbers into the el...
• I agree that sample sizes are small but the trends are clear and have been for some time: the Conservatives have tanked completely in Quebec and remain behin...
• Hard to say. Generally, people who are undecided this late in the game don't tend to vote but the dynamics may well be different with this election. I thin...
• CONS: 34 LIBS: 30 BLOC: 10 NDP: 18 GRN: 8
• larryl: I think Nik's analysis is wrong. As past elections have shown, Liberals usually make gains at the end at the expense of other parties. The other th...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4) (2008-10-05)

• You are mistaken. In the 2006 election Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project was first (missed the call on only twelve ridings.) Ekos was second in the...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2) (2008-10-03)

• That's what the election predictor on the Hill and Knowlton site says as well. Today's poll numbers give the following result: Cons: 121 Libs: 108 Bloc:...
• It depends how they're done. I realize that there are people who don't think that much of H & K's seat projections. However, there are other firms doing sea...
• Actually, I liked Dion turning to the camera. To me, he seemed to be the only leader who tried to connect with people watching. He also seemed to be the only...
• If a law has been broken it is that of the Conservatives placing illegal signs, not the Liberals removing them. As the story states, the Liberals were foll...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 28) (2008-09-29)

• Again, there will be no majority with these numbers. The problem for the Conservatives is that there aren't enough close ridings for them to win in order to ...
• Oops! I forgot to provide the link for the Trendlines Research site. Here it is: http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm
• Interesting that you should think that these poll percentages--CP 38, LP 25, Dippers 20, Bloc 9, Greens 8--should produce the following seat count: CPC 145,...
• Actually, Trendlines does take vote concentrations into account, as it is the basis for their analysis. It is precisely because of how, for instance, the Lib...
• Actually, electionprediction's accuracy is pretty good--better than 90 per cent for the 2006 election and a lot better than both Strategic Counsel and Ipsos ...
• You misunderstand what a trendline actually is. The numbers you cite--152-C, 74-L, 45-BQ, 36-NDP & 1--actually refer to absolute maximums and minimums, not t...
• See my remarks on the other thread about trendlines. You've confused absolute maximums and minimums with likely outcomes. While it is true that Trendlines w...
• Talk about selective facts! Yes, they were off in 2004 but they were a lot better than just about everyone else.For the record, they were in third place just...
• Again, selective use of quotes. You conveniently left off the last sentence which reads as follows: "Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these ...
• You really should stop before you make more of a fool of yourself. As I pointed out in the other post Trendlines does not consider those numbers probable and...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 27, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 27) (2008-09-28)

• There will be no majority with these numbers according to the election predictor on the Hill and Knowlton web site. Here are the results: Cons: 136 Libs ...
• I agree with you about the negative coverage but the good news from this poll is that in spite of all the trashing of Dion the Conservatives are failing to m...
• For the regional breakdown you have to go to the Nanos Research web site for more detailed analysis. This analysis does indeed show that the Liberals are ahe...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 24, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 25) (2008-09-26)

• Yeah, the Greens will get no seats this election; I doubt even Wilson will be re-elected. Unless she can turn things around at the debates I beginning to thi...
• I agree with you about Wilson's problems (and certainly Dion's) but even so I think this could have been winnable for the Greens had they invested sufficient...
• I know much has been made about Dion's English but to me that is not really the problem. His English is actually pretty good in regard to both syntax and vo...
• Yes, I think that is the problem. An additional problem for Dion is his naivete. He (and evidently his handlers as well) seem to think that all they had to d...
• As I said in an earlier post I think Dion's main problem is his naivete. He is basically a decent guy but he is not a good politician in today's political cl...
• It need not be complicated and it does actually have a simple slogan--"Richer, Fairer, Greener". The problem is in the failure to convey this platform in ea...
• I didn't mean to suggest that Harper spoke French badly; only that in regard to syntax and vocabulary Dion's English is more complex than Harper's French. A...
• You may well be right about the media bias but the fact remains that the platform could have presented much better than it was. I happen to have the "Richer,...
• I think Goodale should be safe. The "Vote for the Environment" web site has him well out in front of the other candidates, as of Sept 24. Here's the link: ...
• Although things don't look that great for the Liberals in west of Ontario they will get some seats. According to regional poll analysis on the "Vote for Envi...
• Ooops! I forgot to mention Vancouver-Kingsway, David Emerson's old riding. Traditionally a safe liberal seat but may well go NDP this time.
• I hesitated in replying to this response since your remarks are so obviously partisan but I shall try. While Dion has been attacking Harper by no stretch of...
• Yes, I'm partisan too. And I also would like to keep this discourse civil. I do not like the negativity--the smear and slander--that is so omnipresent in t...
• I am being fair; if anything, I am giving the Conservatives more benefit of the doubt than they deserve. Your ramblings are rather incoherent. Your third p...
• Unlike you, I shall make my comments brief. You really should quit before you dig yourself in any deeper. As before, your comments are rambling and incohere...
• Still willing to dig yourself in deeper, I see. The facts of Cadman as I related them are corroborated by the story which appeared in The Globe and Mail on ...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 21, BQ 9, GP 7 (ending September 23) (2008-09-24)

• There will be no majority with these numbers. In order to win a majority government in this country ideally you should be leading in the two provinces with t...
• Look at the margin of error for Atlantic Canada. With a margin or error of nearly 10 per cent I wouldn't put much faith in them. Plus there is a great deal o...
• You are missing the point. I never denied that the Conservatives were ahead in BC, only that in comparison to Alberta, it was a closer race. (67 per cent for...
• Yeah, I wonder about their regional seat projections myself. Plugging in the Ontario numbers from today's Nanos poll gives the following results: Cons: 26 ...
• The Quebec results using H&K's seat predictor are even more bizarre: Cons: 0 seats (11 in 2006) Libs: 1 seat (12 in 2006) NDP 1 seat ( 1 from by-electi...
• This was the position taken by the by the Supreme Court of Canada when it addressed this very issue earlier this year. Here's an analysis: -----------------...
• The principle is the same whether it is "automatic" or "discretionary". In either case it would be a violation of both the Charter and the UN convention.
• Both Scott Ross and Scott Tribe have discussed this issue at some length on their blogs. Here are the links if you want to take a look: http://thescottross....
• Of course you are right about Harper, and it is my belief as well. The trouble is many of his supporters don't realize how they are being used by him.