skoblin

A member since September 22, 2008 17:20

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Comment History

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 28, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 3) (2008-10-04)

• In retrospect, I think the biggest story of this campaign will be Harper's comments about arts funding and putting 14 year olds in prison. It torpedoed his p...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 25, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 8 (ending September 26) (2008-09-27)

• Well...Harris has the the Liberals and NDP at 24 and 19, while the newest Angus-Reid has them tied at 21. Strange things are afoot.....

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 24, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 25) (2008-09-26)

• Dion's leadership numbers in Western Canada are down to 5%. No wonder the Liberals are tanking in the West. With Liberal support in this region at 16% now, o...
• Harris numbers now show the Greens falling as well, down in all regions - even BC. Not surprised. May has run a strangely inept campaign - even taking into c...
• General failure of the non-CPC vote coalescing around any party. Quebec seems to becoming a write off for all the federalist parties now with the bloc up as ...
• Replying to my own comment. Looking at various poll numbers, it looks like in BC at least, there does seem to be some concentrating of the anti-CPC vote, wit...
• That is something that I can agree with...Liberal supporters not bothering to vote. How much of an impact this will have and who will it benefit will be diff...
• Can Dion's personal numbers go any lower? Not unless he loses his power of speech and has to communicate with a hand puppet. Then again....that might boost h...
• Latest numbers show that the Greens are falling out of contention. I can only imagine what may have been the result if she had been in the lower mainland and...
• at least lambchop would have known not to say anything about 9-11. might have been a better candidate for winnipeg kildonan.
• Beach boy....if you live in regina...how do things look in the Palliser riding?
• That 'in your face' attitude may not work well though for Jack. If he lays on Dion too much and interrupts him like he did Paul Martin in the last debate, he...
• Ipsos-Reid is out with new numbers as well....looks like Nik is dead on. CPC 39 LPC 23 NDP 18 Green 11 Conservative no change Liberals -4 NDP +3 Greens +2

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 40, LP 25, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 24) (2008-09-25)

• Nik's numbers for Montreal Bloc 32 NDP 27 Liberal 23 CPC 13 Green 6 I do not know if this includes much of the impact of the arts fundin...
• Not good news for the NDP as well...at least nationally, although a large portion of the NDP drop off seems to be in Atlantic Canada and Quebec - both of whi...
• Hill and Knowlton is a fairly off-target election predictor. One should be going province by province and then take into account individual ridings. It does ...
• I think the majority of the poll regarding Montreal does not include the arts funding controversy. I think if the full impact of that is taken into account, ...
• Hmmm...I would consider Vancouver Center and Chruchill as gains for the NDP. Liberal support is tanking in the West. Churchill used to be an NDP riding and i...
• I agree. Layton should focus on Dion and let Duceppe savage Harper. The interesting part will be watching Layton and Duceppe tangle. Attacking Dion will be e...
• Well, the regional numbers do not appear to good for the CPC as well. Down 5 points outside Montreal with the Bloc up 10. Perhaps in the eastern township you...
• I have been perusing this site: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php It gives some interesting remarks riding by riding by people who are f...
• The Liberals only successful move was allowing Dion to be bombed by a puffin....wait...no..that was a Tory ad. sorry.
• Incidentally, Nik will be commenting on the situation in Montreal today on CPAC.
• I think Layton will avoid tangling with Duceppe in the French debate. He has little to gain in being shot down by Duceppe and much to lose. I think Foxer is ...
• I have also moved to BC from Alberta. Small world! And yes....in BC there is actually politics going on...lol. Check out St. John's East and Central Nova if ...
• On the edge, but what is the level of the core Liberal support, that won't budge? I can't see the Liberals falling below 22 or 23%. Toronto won't stand for i...
• Interestingly enough, considering the margin of error, the NDP could be leading in Montreal as well. Looking at the numbers, both the NDP and the Bloc have m...
• I really think the CPC's chances in Quebec are pretty much finished. Harper is going to be on the defensive now in the French debate and will have to either ...
• I notice you did not mention anything about Dion. I don't know what sort of strategy Dion could go with. With the Liberals having no chance to form the gover...
• We agree then....that is exactly what I just posted in the first thread. Federalist support in Montreal simply wants to make sure it will be heard in Ottawa....
• Well...if the Liberals fall to 18% they will be spending a long time wandering in the wilderness. With the new party funding rules being as they are, no bail...
• As of right now, the only thing he could do is drop the carbon tax. It would be a dramatic move and would make him appear weak. But he already appears weak, ...
• I don't think it is a question of good advice. I think Dion has been pretty much listening to Dion through this campaign. That has been the problem. Can you ...
• Nik, considering the large majorities the Liberals had in their ridings in Montreal in the last election, is there a realistic chance of the NDP actually tr...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 21, BQ 9, GP 7 (ending September 23) (2008-09-24)

• I notice EKOS has been paralleling Nik's findings rather closely. EKOS also had the Bloc up a significant margin in their last poll as well. Both polls also ...
• I doubt the reason is due to broken Liberal promises in the past. If that was the case, then you would see Dion's numbers going up, since it would mean the L...
• Foxer, I tend to agree with you regarding Nik and EKOS having it right and Harris being off base. But I do not think you will see a massive bleeding of Liber...
• I think your numbers may be off, Christine. Harper only needs around 30 more seats than last time to reach majority country. With the Liberals falling off si...
• Christine, you are right about the high margin of error in Nik's Atlantic numbers, but EKOS also show the Liberals at around 30% in that region. This compare...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22) (2008-09-23)

• Problem is that Dion is not exactly the type of communicator who can effectively sell a fear campaign. I saw Dion give a speech yesterday in French and was f...
• I have to agree, Foxer. The long-term prognosis for the Liberals is not good. I cannot imagine a scenario in which Dion comes out shining from the debates. I...
• Unfortunately, I would have to go with the latter choice. One has to have a little subtlety when one plays the fear card. Chretien was a master at the off-ha...
• The first week of this campaign definitely belonged to the Tories. They came out swinging hard and placed Dion on the defensive right away, trying to defend ...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 22, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 21) (2008-09-22)

• The most interesting aspect has been the rise of NDP support in Atlantic Canada which has been mirrored by the rise of Layton's standing as preferred PM in t...
• gretag...can you provide a provincial or regional breakdown for your +20 NDP growth?
• I agree Foxer...tomorrow's numbers will be very interesting to read. It would be enlightening to hear Nik's explanation for this apparent rise in NDP support...
• A blip...possible. SC numbers though mirror those of Nanos...increase in Quebec and around 20 in Ontario. Will have to see what happens in BC. The NDP starte...
• Good points. It is a trade off. Try to go after these growth areas for the future or go back to core areas to maximize current seat acquisition. I think the ...
• I agree with you MRM. I heard about Layton's 'comment' yesterday morning, and thought what a stupid thing for him to have said. Then when I watched the actua...