MichaelFox

A member since September 17, 2008 18:17

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Comment History

Conservative Victory Propelled by Ontario Voters (2008-10-15)

• I was sure we'd get wiped out there. Here's my province by province scorecard: Alberta 27/28 - 1 seat wrong (guess which one) BC = 35/36 - CPC did one bet...
• Mike Harris did a good job as premier of Ontario.
• Seriously gohabs.. get help. I don't know where you come up with this stuff.

CPAC-Nanos Election Tracking CP 34.2, LP 26.7, NDP 21.4, BQ 9.5, GP 8.2 (ending October 12) (2008-10-13)

• Right to choose what ?
• Conservative = 36% Liberal = 27% NDP = 20% Bloc = 9% Green + Other = 8%
• You asked for help. Is this a question?
• I was serious. Where is the question?
• So larryl, just to be clear, do you think Senate seats should be allocated based strictly on population?
• I briefly toyed with the idea of voting for Olivia Chow in my riding to help prevent the Liberals from winning it. Then she started sending flyer after fl...
• I would imagine that the type of people who vote at advance polls are more likely to be firmly decided voters who would not change their minds between that d...
• In that case, you believe that PEI, Quebec and the North should all have fewer Senate seats than they currently have?
• Gohabs, your spin isn't even intelligent. If you're going to be so rabidly partisan, can't you at least try to put together a coherent argument? The few...
• I was off by 5.2 total, but I didn't show my decimal places. Got the green + other vote exact dead on (8.0), but underestimated the CPC vote slightly.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 32, LP 28, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 10) (2008-10-11)

• A 9 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in the Atlantic in one day? Funny.. With people in a bad mood as a result of losing so much of their savings...
• In a worst case scenario for the Conservatives, they'll still win 102 seats west of Quebec. 35 Conservative seats in Ontario are a lock, If they get even 10...
• I agree.. that's what I was insinuating. :)
• Indeed. :) The sample sizes at a regional level are small. It creates these wild fluctuations that you know are suspect.
• I don't think you need multiple inspectors in every plant, all day every day - but I do believe that every plant needs to be inspected on a fairly regular ba...
• I feel like Layton doesn't speak to people like me. I don't even have a kitchen table. :) In all seriousness, while there are elements of his platform t...
• I think they'll be devoted heavily to working with other countries to get the global markets to settle down for the first few months. The legislature tradit...
• Actually, that's exactly what I thought. Given that almost as many ndp supporters have the conservative as 2nd choice as have the liberals as 2nd choice I....

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 9) (2008-10-10)

• It will be interesting to see how the various Liberal "Information Ministers" try to spin this. When I submit my entry to the you be the pollster contest,...
• I think you're right that the people who are undecided in this poll will just arbitrarily pick one from the list in other polls. I agree, those 10% of peop...
• Keep in mind that the results of the best prime minister question are not grossed up to account for undecided, whereas the party preference results are. T...
• FYI, that should say "to give you best prime minister as a percentage of DECIDEDS." above.
• When you're already at 66% support in Aberta, there's really only one direction that you can go. :)
• Funny..
• Gregg is doing his own thing now, isn't he?
• If Harper were in the United States, he would be considered left wing. Bill Clinton was to the right of Harper.
• No no.. CMHC IS the Insurance company. The assumed ownership of the mortgages, in exchange for liquidity (cash). CMHC will actually make money under...
• MacKay will win his riding with a 20% margin of victory. Anyone care to make a gentlemen's bet on it?
• You don't seriously think the Liberals are going to win, do you?
• Watch for a bunch of silliness from the Liberals on Monday. They'll trot out all of the old cliches. The only people that will believe it are people that a...
• Ha. I can't wait for gohabs and company to show up and predict that the Liberals will be up 5 today.
• Ok, I can see why he would visit Oakville and Newmarket, as they're both swing ridings where the Liberals are poised to lose seats, but I don't get why Dion ...
• Now you're just being ridiculous to the point where I don't think you believe what you're saying. I think you just wanted to work "Bush" into the conversation.
• I was in the PC party. We held a referendum on the issue. The vast majority of us voted in favour of the merger. Thankfully, David Orchard is now the Li...
• "Do you think it's easy to manage the Quebec file?"
• You're wrong. .. and it's funny. Liberals criticize Conservatives for being "ideological". Now you're criticizing Harper for not being ideological. Whi...
• I don't get what your response has to do with the thread.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 8) (2008-10-09)

• A call for civility... Let's try it today, if only for one day. Pretend we're all just political hacks here (which we are). You're not going to change...
• I do think that the ongoing shifting in the polls aren't helping the stock markets. Markets drop when there is this kind of uncertaintly.
• As a Conservative, I have to admit, I'm not feeling great about the Ontario numbers right now. We'll need to move up a few percentage points to keep what we...
• I thought that the original estimate on Afghanistan was the cost to date, whereas the estimate that came out today was the total cost through to the end of t...
• I should have been clear to say "Moving up 9% in Alberta doesn't help us win more seats". It's too bad that the country is so polarized. It's been this w...
• The first thing that would need to happen would be for all parties to refuse to vote for a Conservative throne speech. With the numbers the way they are r...
• .. and it took a total of 14 posts for someone to bring up Bush. Sad.
• Actually, that's what struck me when watching the U.S Presidential debate - Obama and McCain agreed on pretty much everything. Both of them were far more ...
• Suedo, why don't you tell us what they're worth?
• I registered, but how do I actually make my picks?
• I checked my email after and saw it. Thanks. I'll wait until Saturday to enter, I suppose. I wonder if gohabs1 and company will submit entries with the ...
• They're not beholden to the donors, but they at least recognize this one as good public policy.
• Stephen Harper will only step down as leader if he loses outright. With a minority, he can continue to govern. Assuming he gets a minority, I believe he'll...
• So do you think hockey player salaries should be lower, or soldiers should be making millions. The government doesn't set hockey player salaries. If they d...
• I believe that MacKay will win Central Nova. Furthermore, he'll take over 50% of the vote.
• She really should have. In at least 2 of the ridings on Vancouver Island she would have had a good chance. It has me very suspicious.
• WOW. That was just horrible. I wonder if he would have an answer if he were asked yet one more time. I have a feeling he wouldn't. 30 days of meetings...
• CTV is run by Liberals and has been for a long time. Look up Ivan fecan as an example. It's not their fault that dion has nothing specific to say about his e...
• Poorly worded and hypothetical? It was a pretty simple question. Dion has been going on and on about how Harper should be doing more to help the economy (w...
• So, you're admitting that there is nothing more that Harper could have done?
• First you say they should be doing more, and then when they actually do things to help you criticize them for it. Since you obviously believe that you cou...
• Either you don't believe what you are saying, or you don't fully understand the situation. Either way, we can't take your comments seriously.
• A few additional facts, from various articles: ""The mortgage buybacks may allow commercial banks to lower their prime lending rate by about a quarter perce...
• Harper's comments on there being good buying opportunities were accurate.
• Why you do have to be Warren Buffett?
• There are regular working families that do not have the cash, but lots of people have cash.. the same people that have stock market investments.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 11, GP 7 (ending October 7) (2008-10-08)

• If Dion somehow manages to win a small minority - and he still has a long way to go to do that, I'm willing to bet he'll do nothing substantial about emissio...
• We'll see.
• Just once, can't you attempt to have an intelligent discussion on an issue, rather than bashing everyone? Everybody here is a decided voter. You're not cha...
• Canada rated world's soundest bank system: survey Thu Oct 9, 4:40 AM By Rob Taylor CANBERRA (Reuters) - Canada has the world's soundest banking system, ...
• Guys, this is getting f*cking ridiculous.
• It's tough to tell where the market is going to go. I lost a lot of money on it over the summer. I think it's below fair market value at this point, but th...
• I live in downtown Toronto. I definitely think there's a housing bubble - but it's not as bad as what I've seen in European cities that I've been to over th...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 31, NDP 18, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 6) (2008-10-07)

• Actually, I think if Harper is held to a minority, it might be difficult for the Liberals to dump Dion.
• What will Duceppe do after the election? Most pundits have assumed that this would be his last Federal election, regardless of the results. Any thoughts?
• You go too far with your commentary. When you write things like this, what are you trying to accomplish?
• 2 Prime Ministers served from the Senate rather than the House of Commons, but that was 100 years ago.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 29, NDP 20, BQ 11, GP 6 (ending October 5) (2008-10-06)

• It's a horse race! It's interesting that the Leadership Index Score of all of the top 3 candidates has been dropping as many voters moved to the undecided...
• Conservative Party 34 (NC) Liberal Party 29 (-1) Don't lie.
• The stock market is killing me right now. Sigh..
• Agreed. Any reasonable person can see what's going on wordwide.
• I think the Greens are overrated. They are going to fall short of expectations. The NDP does the same thing, every single time.
• It's yours for the asking, but not for the taking. The Liberals aren't going to win.
• Notice that Liberals supporters always have horrible spelling and grammar?
• That would leave the BQ, Greens, etc. at only 4%. Not possible
• I know you're not referring to my comment, since there was absolutely nothing racial about it.
• LOL.. the Conservatives are not going to hire Stockwell.
• You have a bad attitude.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7 (ending October 4) (2008-10-05)

• The Liberals spiked on the 3rd, moving from 26% to 30% after a period of stability. They haven't gone up since then. In order to go up by as much as they d...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 2) (2008-10-03)

• My debate thoughts: Let me preface this by saying that candidates that constantly interrupt others in a debate of this format immediately look bad, in my ...
• Here's a question for you - how much does Exxon currently pay in taxes to the Canadian government? How much will they pay when the tax rate reaches the targ...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 1) (2008-10-02)

• I think there's a tendency to lie to the pollster on a question like this. People will say the debate changed their mind, when really they intended to vote ...

Chat about the Leaders' Debate Live (2008-10-02)

• Your posts are speaking points, not original opinion.
• I thought my point was clear, but I'll explain it. You saying harper looks shifty doslewnt carry any credibility, because you were prepared to say that befo...
• It's not the same thing, and you know it.
• I will admit that Harper didn't keep all of his promises (I am capable of seeing fault in the party that I support, and seeing merit in parties that I don't ...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending September 30) (2008-10-01)

• You shouldn't look to one post as a reason for being suspended. There's a clear pattern in the way that you post.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 20, Bloc 10, GP 8 (ending September 29) (2008-09-30)

• Another day of the status quo. It will be interesting to see what kind of an impact, if any, the turbulence in the markets will have on the results going ...
• I'd put the NDP between 35-40 seats with their current polling numbers. I think they'll pick up a few in BC and the east but lose one or two in Ontario, lik...
• Duceppe always does well in the debates. He's a master debater.
• Where would they put their notes? They often have lots of notes on the podium in front of them.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 26, NDP 20, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 28) (2008-09-29)

• Steady as she goes. I can't wait for the debate. I wonder if it will shake things up at all. I still don't agree with all of the hype about the NDP. It s...
• I'm surprised that the Conservatives are doing as well as they are in Atlantic Canada, given Danny Williams' theatrics. I wonder if his stance has impacted ...
• Stephen Harper is simultaneously attacked by left wingers for being too right wing, and by right wingers for drifting too far to the left. It's tough to bal...
• "their" platform.
• There'd be no way to know this is a fact or not, since we're only 3 months into the fiscal year. The only fact is that the government ran a surplus in the...
• Christine, the result that you posted would be impossible unless the polling numbers change. The Liberals will need to improve by quite a bit to bring in 11...
• They're not going to get 110 seats this time unless they can get 30% of the vote again.
• Shut out from gaining new seats, or shut out of the province entirely? :)
• Wow, I didn't think anyone would throw the Iraq line out there. Everything but the kitchen sink.
• rsharp, it's the way that you express yourself that causes your various profiles to get banned. Even taking the comment above, you could have made your poin...
• elf, do you seriously believe that Harper will take us into Iraq?

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 27, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 9 (ending September 27) (2008-09-28)

• the party with the most seats gets the first shot at demonstrating confidence. The greens aren't going to win any, so it's a moot point.
• You're right kelvin. I thought about editing my post to say "in this situation, harper would get the first option" but I'm young on my phone and it takes for...
• "typing" on my phone - sigh
• I am one if those conservatives who are near the centre. I can see a party being able to put together a platform that would appeal to both people like me and...
• That should say "can't see" above. I wish we could edit our posts.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22) (2008-09-23)

• Some interesting results. This supports the "one rogue day theory". Based on the discussion yesterday, it looks like the polling numbers from 2 days ago ...
• That's incredible.
• There probably is one more day with the statistical outlier included. If so, we'll see what happens tomorrow when that number drops off. As for the comme...
• I'm not so sure about that. Lots of people show up on voting day without knowing very much about the candidates or the parties. Now I wonder if prompting w...
• If the Tories keep climbing, the Liberals will adopt scorched earth tactics and attempt to scare voters into voting for them to block a majority. If it ...
• If he's calling cell phones too, I like that. I'm a cell phone-only person, along with a lot of others. It seems like excluding people who only use cell ph...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 22, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 21) (2008-09-22)

• It's funny to watch people of all stripes trying to spin this one. It's still surprising to me that the different polling companies are publishing such wi...
• "The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added ...
• I hope so too. I'd be very worried about the NDP forming part of our government.
• TPQ, You remind me of the Iraqi Information Minister. :)
• larryl, Yes, it's possible. It's not my theory, but I'll explain how it's possible. Let's look at the Conservatives rolling 3 day averages: Sept 19...
• This isn't how the math works.
• jackbooted? Is that necessary?
• I see from the rest of the threads that other people have discussed this ad nauseum. :) Many are putting a partisan bent on it, which might impact their ...
• I'd say with swings that large, they'd both be a little off - which is partly the case for using a 3 day rolling average - it smooths it out a little. I l...
• Ok, I posted an answer in another thread: http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/89#comments
• Larry, I think we need to back up a bit. Each number that is actually published is an average of 3 days of individual polling results. The polling resu...
• You're using averages to try to calculate other averages. Let's look at the first part of your example. You can't use the 38% and the 36% directly to figur...
• Ya, it would drive people even more crazy, if that's possible. In the last election, Nik occassionally spoke to the individual night's results. Maybe he ...
• I am a Tory voter, but unlike many here, I don't think my comments overly reflect my voting preference. Seriously man, tone down the anger and vitriol a bit.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 28, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 7 (ending September 18) (2008-09-19)

• Back to normal. So Dion is back to 53% on the Leadership Index Score - the same score that he was at 3 days ago, before he let Bob Rae speak on his behalf...
• More thoughts - the is the first time that I've noticed the Conservatives tied for or in the lead in every region - even Atlantic Canada. I'd be very intere...
• Did everyone see Dion's Green shift comment today? What was up with that? Not a major platform plank? Most of us saw it as the single most major plank in ...
• The Conservatives will need to win a plurality in Ontario, I believe, to win a majority. They still have work to do to get there. I feel like the campaig...
• The Liberals should be happy that they didn't choose Bob Rae as a leader, as amazing as that sounds. He had pretty much no base of support by the time he wa...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 39, LP 30, NDP 18, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 17) (2008-09-18)

• Nik, if possible, I'd like to see some analysis on where the party support is coming from where it is significantly different from support for the leader. F...
• I'm still deciding. The Conservatives will crack the 40s for at least a while before this election is over. Whether they stay there is up in the air. Th...
• I get that.. every party has a certain level of support that will go their way no matter what.
• There is far too much kneejerk reaction to small things among politics of all stripes these days. People love to twist things and blow them out of proportio...
• Sorry for the typos.. I really need to proofread. In bullet #2, I meant to say "not allowing Elizabeth May into the debates". Cheers.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 31, NDP 17, GP 7, BQ 7 (ending September 16) (2008-09-17)

• In the last election, the Leadership Index was a great leading indicator for overall support. This is concerning for Dion. That said, I'd need to see this ...
• Dion really hurt himself with that deficit comment. I'm surprised he didn't just answer "yes" and promise not to run a deficit - a la McGuinty.
• In theory, yes.. but the problem with deficits is that once a government runs a deficit once, they seem to get addicted to them. I really think Canada needs...
• TPQ, is it really necessary to be so partisan and immature in your commentary? Pretty muche verybody here is a political hack - our minds are made up in ter...
• EVERY post of yours on this forum is angry, anti-Conservative vitriol. There are many people that can express an opinion on something without it being so ov...