Peter3

A member since August 28, 2008 19:21

Message

Comment History

Harper has "poisoned the well" in parliament - path forward is uncertain (2008-12-01)

• Among the various and myriad astonishing revelations of the last few days has been the depressing but obvious fact that an awful lot of people have a very su...
• I've been over the transcripts of the tape a few times, and I am baffled by the spin Mr. Harper has tried to put on it. It requires a very specific interpre...
• They were not invited. Piecing together the various accounts, it appears that an invitation to a new MP went astray, perhaps because of an addressing error....
• Your references to juntas, and racial segregation are both absurd and irresponsible. The rules in question are not only reasonable and fair, they are a featu...
• You seem to be missing pretty much everything about how our system of government works, why it works that way, and why it is as good a system as any anywhere...
• Yes, well, have a nice day.

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 33, LP 27, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 9 (ending October 11) (2008-10-12)

• Polling firms have started to make an effort to obtain a pool of cell phone numbers from which to draw, in addition to land lines. I believe Nanos is one th...

CPAC-Nanos Daily Election Tracking CP 32, LP 28, NDP 22, BQ 10, GP 8 (ending October 10) (2008-10-11)

• The Star's pollster (Harris-Decima) is abysmal at political polling. Even if their numbers reflect reality (a big if), 35% for the Conservatives is not enou...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 40, LP 25, NDP 19, BQ 9, GP 8 (ending September 24) (2008-09-25)

• OK, this is getting loopy. When are these numbers going to settle down into a significant trend (other than impending Liberal disaster). Conservatives up i...
• The debate may actually cause the undecided vote to increase for a bit, if there's a clear winner or, especially, a clear loser. Typically it takes vote a f...
• One of the debate prep people for working for Mr. Dion is the guy who is credited with suggesting the nothwithstanding gambit to Mr. Martin last time out. G...
• If you look closely at the footage you can see that Mr. Chretien was attempting a Vulcan mind meld and missed his grip...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 26, NDP 21, BQ 9, GP 7 (ending September 23) (2008-09-24)

• The Conservative vote in Montreal must have crashed massively and the Bloc increased dramatically for a purely Montreal-based shift to be the explanation for...
• It is worth looking at Jean Chretien's 1997 performance. He took 101 of 103 Ontario ridings with just under 50% of the vote. That gave him a majority natio...
• agreed

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22) (2008-09-23)

• I think the Liberal campaign is officially in trouble. East of Ontario is shaping up to be a very nasty picture for them if things don't get jolted around v...
• On the issue of variation among polls: I haven't bothered looking into it which ones are doing it and which aren't, but a key difference in polling method...
• True only if the Conservative support is more or less evenly distributed, and the opposition splits relatively homogeneous. Neither is the case. The only p...
• The only example I can think of of a sudden change in fortunes on this sort of scale would be first Brian Mulroney win, which was supposed to be a coronation...
• John Turner came in as the fair-haired boy of the business community, and was conceded all around to be en route to a win before the debate, even after patti...
• I did a quick google and come up with this quote from earlier this month in the authoritative Langley Advance. :-) "The contest began with the Liberals a...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 35, LP 30, NDP 22, BQ 7, GP 6 (ending September 21) (2008-09-22)

• I think the more likely scenario is one in which Mr. Harper follows through on his claim that he intends to govern as if he had a majority, regardless of his...
• The Conservative numbers do seem to have banged up against their ceiling again, but the NDP numbers don't seem to be showing the same trend. I agree with ...
• I think that what Mr.Layton was doing is called putting the cat among the pigeons.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 31, NDP 18, GP 9, BQ 6 (ending September 14) (2008-09-15)

• If the numbers for Quebec are anything close to accurate, this election may be about to head off in directions never explored by the Canadian electorate befo...
• If Stephen Harper starts going after the NDP, it will only benefit Mr. Layton, who will be given the stage to go head to head with the PM in a manner that he...
• The regional breakouts are at: http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-September-15-2008E.pdf
• I don't have an inside view on the Liberal machinery, but it is difficult to avoid the impression that the extraordinary political instincts and ruthlessly e...
• As I said at the outset, the information I have is the breakout for Quebec in the Nanos polling (and other polls showing similar trends). I have no way of k...
• Where exactly do we see the Greens running right up alondside the NDP? If the Green vote is hurting anybody, it seems to be the Liberal Party, with some regi...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 30, NDP 17, GP 9, BQ 6 (ending September 13) (2008-09-14)

• I think you have touched on most of the main points here, with the exception of serious concerns about the economy and how they will play out. The news ou...
• The one point in all of this that needs repeating is that 40% is not necessarily majority territory for the Conservative Party because of the inefficiency of...

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 37, LP 32, NDP 13, BQ 9, GP 9 (ending September 10) (2008-09-11)

• The Ontario numbers are startling. The 27th Conservative numbers were on the low side for polls in that period, and the new numbers are close to what others...
• This poll is the result of a full cycle, with a sample size of 1200. I would not discount the volatility of the public mood. It is pretty spctacular at th...

LP 35, CP 33, NDP 17, BQ 8, GP 7 - Harper leads as best PM (New Nanos Poll) (2008-08-29)

• I figured maybe a chat room run by Nanos would feature some thoughtful discussion. Silly old me. Layton as Harper's pit bull... yeesh. Talk about revision...
• Nice Stephane is the principle bumbler. Stephen? Not sure where that's coming from (well, I have a pretty good idea actually, but let's not go there). It ...
• I don't believe that Mr. Harper is looking to win a majority. He is calculating that the Liberals are in dissaray and will be unable to come together under ...
• I am sure that Mr. Harper would be patient if he thought there was any realistic chance of breaking the logjam in the polls and winning a majority. He seems...
• I think this is a case of May showing she understands hardball politics as well as anybody, self-righteous blather about doing politics differently notwithst...
• Puerile references to nocturnal emissions and number 2 aside, it is difficult to know how to respond to appeals to common wisdom. Since you seem to discou...
• Hmmmm. You are such an insider that you have access to polling numbers. My own experience tells me that you must belong to a select group in Liberal circle...
• It is not correct to suggest that the Angus Reid poll is not stratified demographically. It is administered online, but uses an identified pool of responden...
• Not sure whether you're serious on this point, but I don't work for Nanos, or any other polling company. I have studied statistics, and I have used statisit...
• The Reid poll is administered over the Web, not over the phone. Sorry, I thought that was clear. Aside from that, it's boilerplate polling. It is unclear w...
• Check out the regional breakdown for the latest Nanos poll at: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-SU08-T315.pdf. This is pretty typical...
• All valid concerns. Polls published by news media during election campaigns are required to make their methods available to anyone who asks. Most reputable...
• This is roughly consistent with some of the other polling that has come out in the last while. The Ontario results for the Strategic Counsel poll were only ...
• The only poll I have been able to find that fits this description is a Segma poll in La Presse. It has some very unusual methodoligical quirks, if my interp...
• Perhaps not, although I think that if polls are going to be published it is important that they be done properly. This one exhibits some characterisitics th...
• I think you have a lot of company in not paying much attention to what polls say. I think most people follow them for the same reason that people go to the ...

Time for federal politicians to refocus (Nanos Sun Media Column) (2008-08-18)

• It is difficult to imagine how a shift in the tax structure away from progressive income taxation toward regressive consumption taxation ever came to be char...