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The latest Nanos numbers reveal that when it comes to their provincial premiers, the ability to manage public money is what currently matters most to Canadians. Nanos Research tested eight leadership attributes that the ideal provincial premier might have, and asked Canadians how they ranked the importance of each attribute on a scale of 1 to 10.
In a recent Nanos Research survey, Canadians were asked to rate elected officials in various areas on a 1 to 10 scale, where 1 was very poor and 10 was excellent. These areas included:
making decisions in the long term interests of Canada;
managing policy priorities in a changing situation; and
representing the views of voters that elected them.
Only a small minority of Canadians thought elected officials are doing a good job in any of these areas. Canadians were likely to give an average score (4-7) to elected officials in all three areas (53.0%, 55.7% and 51.7% respectively).
Canadians were also asked to compare federal parties in these three areas. Conservatives were thought to be comparatively better than the other parties at making decisions in the long term interests of Canada (26.8%) and at managing policy priorities in a changing situation (24.8%), while the NDP was thought to be better at representing the views of voters that elected them (30.9%). Of note, about two in ten Canadians were undecided as to which federal party was best in these areas.
The latest Nanos tracking suggests that the Conservatives are now statistically tied with the NDP in terms of ballot share, at 34.7% and 32.4% respectively. The Liberals are in third place at 23.3%, followed by the Greens at 4.2% and the Bloc Québécois at 3.9%. While support for the Tories remained steady at the national level, the NDP was the main beneficiary - a likely consequence of the election in late March of Thomas Mulcair as party leader. Regional support for the Liberals dropped in Quebec, the Prairies and BC. In Quebec, support for the Bloc Québécois has also dropped.
The post-NDP-election “Mulcair effect” was also felt on the Nanos Leadership Index. While Stephen Harper has retained the top spot on the Index despite a drop of 36.6 points, new NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has comfortably moved ahead of Liberal leader Bob Rae to take second place. Mulcair now sits twelve Index points behind Harper.
Of note, Stephen Harper’s Index score in April 2012 is the lowest score he has received since Nanos launched the Leadership Index.
A Nanos survey on the impressions that Canadians have of the federal political parties shows a significant level of cynicism towards all parties. Looking at these numbers, realistically none of the parties hold the image high ground.
Canadians were asked to pretend that each federal political party was a person and to describe the personality of each using one word. More than one in ten used the words “untrustworthy” (14.4%) and “conservative” (12.9%) to describe the Tories. Positive words used to describe the Conservatives included “good/good choice” (9.1%), “trustworthy” (6.4%), “strong/powerful” (5.3%) and “intelligent” (4.0%).
The NDP was described as “socialist” by a noticeable proportion of Canadians (13.3%). One in ten believed the party is “caring” (10.2%) and “good” (10.0%) while others said it was “bad/incompetent” (10.1%). A number of Canadians also saw the NDP as a “new” party (10.0%).
Nearly two in ten Canadians used the words “bad/incompetent” (18.4%) and “untrustworthy” (16.2%) to describe the Liberals, while one in ten said the Party was “good” (11.5%). Other attributes associated with the Liberals included “competent” (6.8%), “progressive” (5.8%), and “strong/powerful” (5.1%).
Nearly two in ten Canadians associated the Green party with the words “environment/eco-friendly/green” (16.7%). The party was also thought to be “unrealistic/naive” (14.7%) and many believed it was “not well known” (11.1%).
When Quebecers were asked the word they would use to describe the personality of the Bloc, more than one in ten said the party is “useless” (15.4%) as well as “narrow-minded/one-sided” (13.0%). Many Quebecers also described it as a “separatist/independent” party (11.7%) while others felt it was “aggressive” (10.7%). A few believed the party is “good” (4.0%).
The latest wave of the Nanos Ontario tracking suggests that the provincial race is tightening. The McGuinty Liberals’ advantage in terms of public support over Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives shrank over the past month from 9.9 points to 3.3 points (35.4% versus 32.1% support, respectively). NDP support is at 26.5%, and the Greens are at six percent support (6.0%). In light of these results, it looks like things are in flux at Queen’s Park as we are moving closer to the budget vote.
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