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Nik on the Numbers is about polling, politics and public policy in Canada and is an open dialogue space for me to post the latest Nanos polls and for you to comment on those results and our political landscape. In this dialogue space, stats, analysis and the views of Canadians intersect.
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A new study examining energy policy suggests that energy security trumps the concern about greenhouse gas emission among both Americans and Canadians. The study, completed by Nik Nanos, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington D.C. included polling data among Americans and Canadians. Part one of the study release focuses on motivations driving perceptions on energy issues and views of the Keystone XL pipeline. The complete report will be released by the end of May 2013.
In a recent CBC Power & Politics/Nanos survey looking at leading Canadian politicians, two in five Canadians (41.0%) said that Stephen Harper had the best experience to lead Canada, but three in ten (30.0%) said that Justin Trudeau was the most inspiring leader. Harper maintained a marginal advantage on a series of other variables, including which leading politician Canadians felt had values most like them (Harper 26.3%, Trudeau 22.8%), which one would make the best leader of a political party (29.1% vs. 25.6%) and which was the strongest campaigner (31.0% vs. 24.8%).
Nik on the Numbers
There are a number of key observations in terms of the Nanos national tracking. The national ballot race is tightening up. The trend line for Conservative support, although still numerically ahead of the opposition parties, is trending downward and is at the lowest level in the Nanos tracking since August 2009.
Three regional races are also quite tight: BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Also of note, in the province of Quebec support for the BQ has been trending upward, although the BQ still significantly trail the New Democrats.
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Nik on the Numbers
The Conservatives remained in the lead nationally in January with 34.3%, while the Liberals (27.6%) and the NDP (27.1%) were tied in second place. They were followed by the Greens at 4.7% and the Bloc at 4.6%.
Jobs/economy was still the top national issue of concern over the past month (22.4%) followed by healthcare (14.8%).
Nik on the Numbers
Our annual Nanos-IRPP Mood of Canada survey finds Canadians more uncertain about where we’re headed - and more critical of the Harper government.
A significant and rising percentage of Canadians are uncertain about whether the country remains headed in the right direction, up from 9 to 25 percent over the past year, according to our annual Mood of Canada survey. The data shows that the percentage of Canadians who say the country is on the right track has fallen to 48 percent, down markedly from 64 percent who were confident with the direction a year ago.
Although 48 percent right track numbers should still be considered good, it is the lowest level recorded in the survey since Stephen Harper became prime minister in 2006.
Canadians are divided on the performance of the Harper government but negative assessments have risen over the past 12 months. The number of those who rated the Conservative Government’s performance as “very” or “somewhat” poor jumped eight points, to 33 percent. Performance ratings were stronger for the Conservatives in the Prairies and among male voters and weaker among women and east of the Ottawa River.
“The last election resulted in the Ottawa River being the new political dividing line,” says Nik Nanos of Nanos Research. “On many of the issues, this political asymmetry has mirrored the asymmetry in the Canadian economy between the resource propelled economy in the West and the manufacturing economy in central Canada. Nanos has conducted the tracking survey in partnership with the Institute for Research on Public Policy for the past six years.