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Welcome to Nik on the Numbers
Nik on the Numbers is about polling, politics and public policy in Canada and is an open dialogue space for me to post the latest Nanos polls and for you to comment on those results and our political landscape. In this dialogue space, stats, analysis and the views of Canadians intersect.
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Nik
Feb 08
The latest Nanos tracking has the Conservatives dropping in the new year with a dead heat between the Tories and the Liberals. The Conservatives continue to lead in the Prairies and British Columbia but are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, Ontario. The Bloc Quebecois leads in Quebec at 33% followed by the Liberals at 29% and the Conservatives at 22%, the NDP at 11% and the Greens at 5%.
Although the Harper Conservatives ended the year with a comfortable 10 point margin, their advantage in the ballot box has all but evaporated.
Dec 30
The latest Nanos Leadership Index tracking indicates that, among decided voters, the Conservatives still hold a solid nine point lead over the Liberals.
Key takeaways include that the Conservative ballot support has not diminished in the face of controversial issues in December such as the Afghan detainee issue or the focus on the environment. For the Liberals, although perceptions of Ignatieff have softened it has not led to a negative fallout in Liberal ballot support.
Dec 23
The results of a new Nanos national poll suggest that none of Canada’s political parties have turned the Afghan detainee issue to their advantage. Of the 48.8% of Canadians who were aware of the Afghan detainee issue, the Canadian Armed Forces are considered by Canadians to have the greatest credibility on this issue.
Dec 09
The third annual Nanos-Policy Options Mood of Canada poll finds that nearly two Canadians in three (64.3 percent) think the country is moving in the right direction, up from just over half (53.6 percent) who thought so a year ago after the stock market crashed and the country plunged into the deepest recession since the Second World War. The “right direction” scores have virtually returned to 2007 levels, and the “wrong direction” response is relatively the same (33.2 percent) as it was last year (32.1 percent) and is much higher than in 2007, when it was measured at 20.2 percent. The difference, of course, is that the “not sure” response has fallen sharply to 2.5 percent from 14.2 percent last year and 14.0 percent in 2007.
Canadians felt that relations between the federal and provincials governments have not improved over the past year. When asked to rate the relationship “on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not improved and 5 is improved” only one in ten Canadians felt that relations had improved (3.7 percent) or somewhat improved (8.7 percent).The lowest approval numbers were in the Prairies, where 22.5 percent registered either a one (11.0 percent) or a two (11.5 percent) on the five point scale.
Nov 24
Since the fall of 2008, the economy has dominated the issue frame of Canadians. It is significant that for the first time in a year, another issue has registered as a more important unprompted issue of concern among Canadian. This is likely indicative of a number of factors at play. First, as unease about the economic downturn diminishes, fewer Canadians are worried about the economy and jobs. Second, the focus on H1N1 has helped healthcare as a comparative concern in November.
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