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Welcome to Nik on the Numbers
The Nik on the Numbers Blog reaches 2.5 million visits and 44,399 posted comments since the launch in June 2008.
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Nik on the Numbers is about polling, politics and public policy in Canada and is an open dialogue space for me to post the latest Nanos polls and for you to comment on those results and our political landscape. In this dialogue space, stats, analysis and the views of Canadians intersect.
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Nik
Jan 06
Although the Nanos Economic Mood Index remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2011, the Expectations Index, which is the forward look for the next six months, registered a slight gain.
As we enter 2012, consumer confidence is steady and the pessimism in terms of the first six months of 2012 is not as strong as the previous quarter.
Cautious yet not as negative would be the key hallmarks of opinion related to the economy.
Fewer Canadians than the previous quarter thought the Canadian economy would get weaker in the next six months (31.3% in Q4, 38.9% in Q3), while nearly one in two (45.3%) thought there would be no change.
Dec 29
The latest CTV/Globe/Nanos tracking completed in December has the Conservatives at 36.5% followed by the NDP at 28.7%, the Liberals at 25.6%, the Bloc at 4.4% and the Green Party at 3.8% nationally. Support for the NDP continues to slide in Quebec with the BQ continuing to be the main beneficiary. In Quebec the NDP are at 33.4%, followed by the Liberals at 22.9%, the Conservatives at 20.8% and the BQ at 19.9%.
A look at the longer term trend line in Quebec suggests there is a direct inverse relationship between the support for the NDP and the BQ. BQ fortunes may be on the rise for a number of reasons including the absence of an NDP leader and a series of controversial federal appointments made by the Harper government. Even with these factors, there is a three-way tie for second in Quebec between the Liberals, the Conservatives and the BQ.
Nov 26
The latest Globe/CTV/Nanos tracking poll on the federal political landscape shows that while the Conservatives retain their ballot box lead, the Liberals and the NDP are now statistically tied in second place. The latest national ballot stands at 35.6% for the Tories, 28.1% for the Liberals, 27.3% for the NDP and 3.9% for the Greens (support for the Bloc Québécois rose marginally to 3.9% nationally and 15.9% in Quebec).
Stephen Harper retains a clear advantage overall in the Nanos Leadership Index (102.4), while interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae is firmly in second ahead of interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel, with respective Leadership Index scores of 43.9 and 24.9.
As a national issue of concern, jobs/the economy has surpassed healthcare (jobs/economy 29.3%, healthcare 22.8%).
Nov 08
The latest Nanos Research survey on the view Canadians have of the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations suggests that seven of ten Canadians are aware of the demonstrations. A majority of Canadians aware of the demonstrations have a favourable or somewhat favourable view of them with Quebecers and respondents under 30 years of age being more likely to have a favourable view compared to other groups.
Asked about what drove their impressions, Canadians with favourable/somewhat favourable views had them because they supported the demonstrations and thought there was a need to raise awareness and take a stand. Those with unfavourable/somewhat unfavourable opinions thought the demonstrations were pointless and lacked focus.
Although the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations have been successful at capturing the frustration and concern of some Canadians and have raised awareness, the lack of a clear ask or leadership may present a risk in terms of it attempting to sustain momentum.
Oct 31
The latest Globe/CTV/Nanos tracking poll on the federal political scene shows that the Conservatives are holding onto their comfortable lead at the ballot box, while the NDP and Liberals remain in second and third place, respectively. The latest national ballot stands at 37.7% for the Tories, 30.0% for the NDP, 23.4% for the Liberals and 3.8% for the Greens (the Bloc saw a marginal gain in support, at 3.6% nationally and 15.2% in Quebec).
While Stephen Harper continues to poll highest on trust (30.4% of Canadians), competence (37.0%) and vision for Canada (29.8%), interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae has now surpassed interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel in the Leadership Index.
Healthcare is now statistically tied with jobs and the economy as a leading issue of concern for Canadians (healthcare 27.6%, jobs/economy 26.6%).
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